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NFP Prints At 117K, Beats Expectations Of 85K, Unemployment Rate Down To 9.1%
- Change in Non-Farm Payrolls M/M 117K vs. Exp. 85K (Prev. 18K)
- Change in Private Payrolls (Jul) M/M 154K vs. Exp. 113K (Prev. 57K)
- Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jul) M/M 24K vs. Exp. 10K (Prev. 6K)
- US Average Hourly Earnings (Jul) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.0%)
- US Unemployment Rate (Jul) M/M 9.1% vs. Exp. 9.2% (Prev. 9.2%)
Bloomberg's take:
- Private payrolls rose 154k vs est. 113k (range 70k-150k);prior revised to 80k from 57k
- Unemployment fell to 9.1% vs est. holding at 9.2% (range 9.1%-9.4%)
- Unemployment decline due to labor force participation rate decline to 63.9%, a cyclical low, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
- Avg. hourly earnings 0.4% increase a function of minimum wage gains; govt. continues to furlough workers, says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
- Underemployment rate 16.1% vs prior 16.2%
- Monthly growth below 150k not consistent with supporting sustained unemployment declines, notes Brusuelas
- TJ Marta writes that the report is not all bright: unemployment rate fell because labor participation fell to 63.9% from 64.1%
- Payrolls “beat” was within +/- 50k statistical “white noise” for non-farms econometric models
- Longer term, report doesn’t change downward trajectory of economy, which needs 150k+ just to keep pace with new entrants to labor force
- Household survey showed 38k decline in employment
And Wall Street knee jerk response:
GENNADIY GOLDBERG, FIXED INCOME ANALYST, 4CAST INC., NEW YORK
"In the broader scheme of things it's really not quite as stunningly high as we would hope for but it's definitely a positive surprise. The positive revisions to last month are also a good thing.
"We would have to see a few months of job gains at a higher level than this to correct the trend higher.
"Right now Treasuries are just chopping around, which is quite interesting. They predictably fell right after the release but they're reluctant to fall too much because the trend is still weaker.
"The Fed will probably comment on recent developments but they normally don't get very excited about one data print. Maybe they will use it to justify the idea that things aren't as bad as the market thinks."
MICHAEL GAPEN, SENIOR U.S. ECONOMIST, BARCLAYS CAPITAL, NEW YORK
"I wouldn't say that (a double dip recession) is totally off the table but it's a much better number than the market had priced in. It's a number that is likely to give policymakers some comfort that the poorest months were May and June.
"It likely means that the fed doesn't take action next week. It doesn't allow us to totally turn the corner and put all of this behind us but it's a much better than expected number."
MICHAEL MARRALE, MANAGING DIRECTOR, AND HEAD OF SALES TRADING AT RBC CAPITAL MARKETS IN NEW YORK
"Doesn't solve anything. View it more as a selling opportunity rather than a reason to get back involved on the long side. The prior revision up is encouraging but at the end of the day, we are coming off the back of last Friday's weak GDP number, Monday's ISM report and we are starting to hear some company commentary that we may be heading into or already be in a recession."
"We did trade as low as 1182 on the S&P futures overnight, the futures coming back were a function of not only concern that the number would be OK, but also some concern on behalf of the shorts that the ECB could make an announcement over the weekend, which would rally the markets. So in the futures markets there has definitely been some short covering ahead of the number and ahead of the weekend."
ERIC STEIN, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, EATON VANCE, BOSTON
"It's definitely stronger than expected. It's not robust by any stretch of the imagination, but compared to a market that was nervous beforehand it's a relief. In the context of a normal recovery it's not a strong number, but in the context of the fear that's been permeating the market it's not a terrible number."
JAY FEUERSTEIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF 2100 XENON GROUP IN CHICAGO
"These are pretty good numbers. Revision is up and it is stronger than expected across the board. I don't think this is enough to bring us out of a slowdown, but these are not recessionary numbers.
"In the short run, markets will react positively, but then it will become about the forward perception. How will they be going forward? How will recent events impact next month's read?"
DAVID SLOAN, ECONOMIST, IFR ECONOMICS, A UNIT OF THOMSON REUTERS
"July's payrolls should provide a sigh of relief to those fearing a move back into recession. The 117k increase is not dramatically above expectations for a rise of 85k, but it contained upward revisions to the two preceding months, a fall in unemployment to 9.1% from 9.2% which was expected to be unchanged, and a 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings that was significantly above a 0.2% consensus. The data suggests the economy, while far from strong, is going to see some improvement from the weak pace seen in the first half of the year."
More coming as soon as bls.gov actually comes up
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Rally back to 1240/1250 next week.
Looks like futures are already fading the move. Will need to be very careful today.
The Euro seems to have topped already against the dollar. Dollar strength ahead, I suspect.
"Source of funds" trade probably continues...sell the winners and cover shorts on beaten down things.
Europe is still a short today.
Bernank trying to figure out how he can have fear and panic, but not so much as to cause the rest of the 401K brigades to sell...quite a tightrope across the Grand Canyon act.
Indeed, Dog. And where the Fed is involved, only failure follows.
It seems to me that the bathrobe brigade is not actually fooled by this Wall Street nonsense...not as much as they used to be. Redemptions at cashless mutual funds to continue...
[lulz..."Fire at Valero Refinery" story IMMEDIATELY announced as "under control." Ah, the central planners. Where is my bottle of blue pills?]
They must have counted every blowjobs and handjobs to get that number.
<-- QE3 > $1T
<-- QE3 < $1T
I'm thinking big. Because these are big moves these days. But I'm not so sure.
The Bernank called the BLS yesterday and instructed a statistical quantitative easing.
Not talking about today. I just think we get a bear market bounce of 3-4% that should leave us at 1250 (prior support). Then the market could have lured in enough fools to turn arounda and drop sub 1100 for good.
the pres would speak after a major miss? please
Can I call bullshit?
YES!! I smelled it from a mile away... they had to juice the numbers today to "save" the markets but it will be revised down by 100k next month... its all BS and now more people are beginning to see this... game over folks... their gig is up
Agreed. There seems to be an effort, especially after the revision of Q1 GDP to a lower number than Q2 GDP, to sell the story that Q1 was the 'soft patch' and that the economy is on the upswing again and now they have another $2+ trillion to throw around. What a farce. However, the market doesn't buy the headlines anymore and is looking behind those numbers at all the fudging.
Yet futures have gone vertical since the headline was released. I'd say the market will buy a smoldering bag of dogshit as long as it's labeled "rose petals"
Lesson one. THE "NEWS" is for the retail suckers. THEY buy the news while the "smart money" aka the frauds SELL... thats how it is done...
stock investing is long dead... you can trade but be careful you might never get your money out when the SHTF...
"yes, you can"
Investors love the bullshit, just like a fat, ugly woman likes to hear that she is sexy and pretty.
ERIC STEIN,
JAY FEUERSTEIN,
DAVID SLOAN,
GENNADIY GOLDBERG,
MICHAEL GAPEN,
Do I see a trend here?
Just saying... don't look to deep into it
Homo sapien is a strain of virus that feeds on itself and values ideas more than their own biological success.
The trend is simply population boom and bust.
you were expecting Jooooooos Bitchezzzz? sorry.
HUMAN is a disease on earth... just saying
These are the names of at least 5 Wall Street crooks. Either they are as dumb as shit toast on a hot day or they are your typical Wall Street frauds who get paid to spin the news so they can sell worthless paper. Pick one. Either way I thank TD for pointing them out. I know another hundred or so just like them over my years and I have to say many of them are there.... that is why in part everything is so FUBURed... THEY HAVE TO GO. Wall STREET needs a colon cleansing right now!!! flush out the SHIT
"The data suggests the economy, while far from strong, is going to see some improvement from the weak pace seen in the first half of the year."
DO THESE PEOPLE ACTUALLY STILL THINK ANYONE LISTENS TO THEM ANYMORE!?!?!
Good GOD!
Why even report this stuff? It's really nothing more than propaganda to keep the people from revolting. I think it would be better for ZH to report the John Williams shadow stats number. His number counts it the same way as during the depression in the 30s, simply the number of people not working.
The current real truthful unemployment rate is 22.7%.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
[Why even report this stuff? It's really nothing more than propaganda to keep the people from revolting.]---SMG
Hi SMG. I agree, of course, it's propaganda.
However, I need to know the propaganda the state is dispensing. I measure the propaganda against reality. The greater the gap, the harder the fall.
Not only can you call bullshit, I encourage you to do so. Now, I don't really care that TPTB are manufacturing numbers (since we, as a nation don't seem to manufacture anything else), but what is very worrisome to me is that I think they, themselves, BELIEVE those numbers and are developing economic policies based on the lies. It's one thing to claim the unemployment rate is 9.1% when it's actually 16+%, but it's a whole other thing to base your policies on 9.1%. It's insanity of the first degree. If we, as a nation, and policy makers in particular, can't face up to the real situation we're in; if we have to sugarcoat the numbers to make people feel better and then believe in the fantasy, then we're surely going to run headlong into a brick wall.
'developing economic policy on lies' .
Isn't that what got Greece in the SHIT load of trouble?
YES YES YES
THE US is doomed because everything was built upon lies and more lies to cover over those lies... ironic that Bernie Madeoff was made a vilan when he was simply a copycat of the global economy!!
Me doth think this was not good enough. Especially with planned layoffs increasing...
Doth we protest too much?
Revised down to 80k next week.
we did it... Yaaaa. Not at all, theses numbers still are not great. The most important part 190,000+ dropped out of the labor market, WOW
We have some serious problems with the economy, that no one is talking about
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
Yeah, but that's what used to be called the "real" economy. Now the tail wags the dog, then eats him for dinner.
No problem. A dog's just a dog. There's plenty more where he came from.
But have you seen The Market! Prosperity just can't be denied.
Mr. Market knows all.
Which is why, of course, we now look at how job reports hurt the markets to determine if they matter or not.
Summer Jobfest in the Workers Paradise -- enjoy!
In-credible.
So, does "massively oversold market" + NFP "beat" == "melt-your face off rally" on Fraud Street today?
Or does NFP "beat" + "no more QE for you" == risk-off?
We'll know soon enough.
Half-life: 90 minutes.
Squid traders score on "unleaked" leveraged SPX calls early, then go home to party while reality of Spangliatti bank situation pushes indexes down 2% or more by the closing bell.
After Fuckin' Wingnut finishes reading the RED will reappear.
"reading" LOL
Looks like they're already starting to walk-back the "JOY!" in this report - check the updates from Bloomies.
You should see the jokers at CNBC gushing over the good news...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44031964/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/
Wonder what they'll be retracting once things go red.
I can post?? I wasn't able to read or post yesterday. The Obama Birthday Trade. I wanted to share in the excitement. I think that paid for another self sustainable permafarming unit and a couple of more families that won't have to depend on the government.
And docj, I think you are right, but I don't like calling the market. I do better going with the flow or inconsistances, go in take money, get out. Like the ocean. Is there any other way to play this market? (I know accumulate physical PM, way ahead you even with the silver, it makes great solder)
No worries, GG. I don't "play" in this market - I'm a mere observer.
Frankly, I think anyone "playing" in this casino is likely to get precisely what they deserve. I have a great deal of sympathy for anyone who has to make rent in this mess, but doing anything with this as a hobby is pure insanity.
This should help the bank run in Europe. HA HA
its a miracle!!!!!!!!!!!
You asked for it...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ojoQ938Wio&feature=related
i can see and walk again, praise the lord
"What SAY there, Fuzzy Britches!! Feel like talkin'!?!"
Mein Führer! I can walk!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiwKb-x7wXQ
I will be the first to call 'bull schmidt'! Work force participation shrinks by 193k. So real number......about -80k.
....and that number does not even count the birth/death adjustment .....which seems to always add jobs.
If they ever printed the REAL number today in the middle of the market crash all hell would break loose (as it should) but instead they will give the fake happy number to prop things up again so we rally today on Fraud Street 500 points!! LMAO
My advice to everyone is GTFO of stocks and banks and buy gold.... simple really
True, but because they live in their warped 'created perceptions' world, they neglect the fact that the market no longer buys the manipulated numbers they produce. That is the 'unintended consequence' of the 'tangled web they weave when once they practice to deceive'.
all problems solved. happy happy joy joy.
idiots
well no need for qe3 right??????
It'll be harder for them, but they'll push for it anyway.
Surprised by the beat. Still not enough to dent anything
Wow! That is... um... still rather bad. We'll rally regardless.
Well, at least they didn't get greedy and have the cooked number show up as 8% unemployment.
QE3 no dice for Jackson Hole. All the QE3 hype has just gone up in smoke.
No, setups like these take weeks. Right now we're in the early volatility stage. Next will come the panic stage. Finally will come the solution stage, where we're offered QE3 or die. I'm astonished by the speed of this though. We're seeing things move like in 2008. This bronco is bucking.
How many more of these games before confidence is lost absolutely in both the government and market?
labor participation down to 63.9
Dude, your avatar is freakin' awesome.
Get ready for a +1000 day on the Dow. All they had to do was put out a cooked number and it's to the moon!
Perfect setup for a classic '9:45 am flameout.'
STFP -- Sell The Freaking Pop!
Flameout indeed, friend. It'll all go sour in the afternoon hours like after 1:30 only to be interrupted by the PPT. Off we go into the weekend memories of Thursday a distant past...
'9:45 am flameout' -- CHECK!!!
those #'s are cooked!
I guess my predictions were all wrong. no excuses. but the #'s are cooked!
QE3 happened yesterday Long Bond up 4 points, suckit-Trabeck, er, Bernanke.....
Suckit long, and suckit hard.
hahhahah if these numbers are fake, then obama isnt a us citizen.....oh wait, he ISNT
Riiight, oh well i bet those numbers will see some backwarded pressure the coming months !
Wall St must be really desperate when a number than bad sets off a rally that big!
Next they'll be teling us the grain crops are good this year.
from: Moscow on the Hudson (1984)
Best number we've had in some time. I've been a big bear for a while, but from a corporate perspective, things here aren't that bad. Sovereign-wise its different, but this is a pretty good number.
Shit.
It that's a "good number" then Napolitano is a "hot chick."
Why yes, the fundamentals are strong, as well.
[/sarcasm]
It's a FESTIVUS MIRACLE!
Cannot wait to see this 230k BD model number.
People dropping off into the abyss.
Short squeeze today, back to business next week.
Expectations were beaten like a couple walking home from a Wisconsin State Fair
Tractor production figures for next five years will be AWESOME! And another record wheat crop! Oh wait, this is not USSR?
Chocolate rations to be doubled next week!
Free beer if grain production quota is met.
All hands to the harvest!
BYOS -- Bring Your Own Scythe
These days that book is much too serious to be used as any kind of humor...
BO revising his speech to say jobs are improving, unemployment is down, markets are up and all is going well.
Birth/death Tyler?
B/D not available for the moment
Fabrication bitchez!
No rally today IMO
Juked stats and nothing more. They just make shit up now and we all know it.
Apparently, some people still believe this shit.
1. How many of these jobs are birth/death adjustments?
2. With 400k+ jobless claims per week, how is the job number even positive?
1. Enough to relieve the market of a plunge below 1200.
2. BB could still do QE3 on those jobs numbers, no problemo.
3. BTFD day today.
4. Short covering.
= Robo-trader revenge day.
Robotrader revenge? LOL, dont forget he was posting his 'Better go all-in long here at 12,700 for the 'debt deal' huge run up'. If these big bulls put their money where their mouths were then theyre all crew cut. Leo too, famous Wednesday nite post about going all in long for the 500 point drop. Wont hear from those 2 for a while I'd bet.
Many tears for bull tards, hee hee.
BTE! The revelution is postponed! Not.
I said yesterday I thought we would get a big surprise. I figured we'd get a 100k+ print but honestly thought it'd just be to mask a downward revision of the +18k last month, but that was revised up to +46k. Now I'm thinking we'll rally hard today but half expect a serious fade into the close... or even right after the AM pop. Too much isht going on out there.
Looks like them Cheeseburgers will be served quicker then?
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Looks like you Hayek'd up a hairball.
Amateur
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Lame.
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I think that gets to the heart of the matter.
Yea, a horribly shitty print of 117k jobs with a huge Birth/Death adjustment will help the insolvency issues in Europe.
I think you missed my point. Everybody got scared to death yesterday, so they're celebrating what, in any other context, would be a crap number. It's just a continuation of the usual celebration over bad news (yay! we were at 398k instead of 400k...ooops).
And no, of course this won't help Europe at all. I think there'll be the usual irrational jump at the open followed by another drop as people start to actually think this through.
That 'pop' in the futures was provided by anybody but investors. This is all just for show. I knew at 3:00 am when the futures went up 100 points in about 2 minutes that they were going balls-to-the-wall on the intervention today.
The NFP has nothing to do with it other that it provides some sort of pretense of absurd 'plausibility'.
Now the PPT is working for the BLS?
It's a mandate!
Ooops, they made a mistake... Chairsatan needed bad numbers for his printing press didn't he?
Stop all the doom and gloom. PG had a great quarter and is forecasting continued good numbers. This is a very good jobs number -- plus the prior months were revised UP.
+117K and 9.1% FUNemployment in the 2nd year of a "recovery" is a "good number"?
Seriously dude, that's not even elementary-school level trolling and you've been here long enough to know better.
that's not even elementary-school level trolling
Not very good at it is It? Maybe it's a robo troll.
Oh, if it where only true.
Happy days are here again!
Futures already tipping off their surge.
Market needs it's Pomo
Let me guess ... after Jay Carney claimed yesterday that Obama does not create jobs, Obama will today take full credit for the creation of these jobs. And his lackeys in the media will lap it up.
Things like this don't even surprise me anymore... allowing things to go bankrupt, fail, lose money etc. is no longer acceptable. Its just a part of the unanounced "No company left behind" strategy... Preventing the inevitable crash will make it that much harder when it does crash... Its getting to the point where they're bailing water on the titanic with a teacup...
But the longer they drag this out, the more shinies i can acquire and the more shocked the general sheep will be when it falls apart...
_ _ _ _ _ _ | | | | | | | (_) | | |__ _ _| | |___| |__ _| |_ | '_ \| | | | | / __| '_ \| | __| | |_) | |_| | | \__ \ | | | | |_ |_.__/ \__,_|_|_|___/_| |_|_|\__|
_ | | ___ ___ __ _ ___ ___ _ __ __ _| | / __|/ _ \/ _` / __|/ _ \| '_ \ / _` | | \__ \ __/ (_| \__ \ (_) | | | | (_| | | |___/\___|\__,_|___/\___/|_| |_|\__,_|_|
oops, try again
||||_____|||||(_)((((())))))|||||||||||._______((()))))
||||_____|||||(_)((((())))))|||||||||||._______((()))))
Please tell us you've had an aneurysm and collapsed onto the right half of your keyboard.
I glad others thinks these numbers are crap. With the sell-off yesterday you know they had to come up with something this morning. It's ashame they give up any crediability for politics.
BLS website down. They don't want anyone to sift through the bullshit or see how many the birth/death model added.
Nothing to see here sheeple, move along!
Dow futures +90
They'll never learn
pcln will lead the market higher +$50 after market on earnings..seems all the jobless go on vacation for less.
Every time I see "pcln," I read it as penicillin. And then I think that the market needs a much stronger antibiotic to clear this infection.
if you cannot read ascii text the numbers are Bullshit.. The participation and seasonial are propaganda.. Numbers are horrid..
He's alive!
He's alive!
The takedown should be impressive - Silver has to be sold like a monkey -or, yes, here it goes
JPM has to restablish some dominance
I was thinking the same thing, but that sure didn't last long.
As I expected, this NFP is simply underwhelming to both sides. In fact, it's downright depressing to every American because it's confirming that the big old US engine of growth is chocking on its own fumes.
At this stage in the business cycle we should be approaching peak growth, and huge employment gains. Not looking at contraction everywhere
+115K jobs where? Lets see the list of companies that went on hiring sprees...that cant be shown. Anyway watch out Bernank your little market drop causes no fear and panic in 30 minute attention span america. You have to do better than that.
Last few BLS reports have been cruising on fudge-factor only.
Without B/D and counting on revisions, we gained 1 job
" +115K jobs where? Lets see the list of companies ... "
SURE won't be Cisco ...
My guess is that is the last +100k print we see for 3 ms. Everything frooze in july. What little confidence there was evaporated.
Douple dip recission and an incompetent to the point of dangerous political system has consequences; nobody hires.
They solved the past problem of discovering real number looking at B/D...just keep the site down.going forward the birth death will be released a month later..Presto
where the birth/death adjustment?
It's hiding in Bernanke's basement with the M3
Last time to get out before the proverbial shit hits the fan.
The lipstick has been applied to the pig.
All is well now.
Wow, look at the effort to keep the futures juiced into the open. Man, that's some serious effort. I hope those guys get Gatorade breaks and free wrist bands.
The unbearable lightness of employment
OR
The unbelievable silliness of creating an economic model based on outsourcing
Thank you, 1980s.
The BLS site will be down until 4:01 EST when you will then discover that the Birth/Death model added 200K jobs this month. Fade this Pop.
230k actually.
Thanks. BLS site is down still so can't check what that figure is.
Actual number basing on past BD adds is -150K at least....yea buy the dip gamblers. 'Birth/Death' adjustment biggest bunch of crap in economic history.
It's up now. Is this right? B/D for July was -18k? http://bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
... see, it really was a spending problem... two jobs in every household... Grover for President...
Fake data! Short covering and selling on strength. BS continues...
Well did anyone NOT see this coming?
Up 500 points today...
Whatever
futures went from -50 to +50. Well, maybe the market is buying the story......but wait.....the BLS site is down........so the market can't check the B/D model figures......or anything else for that matter.
Futures already faded 50 points from this garbage data. Anyone buying on this is simply a degenerate gambler, bottom line.
BLS, why dont you post the data whats wrong your gubment site is down all morning? Pure BS.
Seriously....they are going to withhold the B/D model info into the close? You have to be joking.
OH, the site is down. It's just a coincidence.