NFP Prints At 117K, Beats Expectations Of 85K, Unemployment Rate Down To 9.1%

Tyler Durden's picture
  • Change in Non-Farm Payrolls M/M 117K vs. Exp. 85K (Prev. 18K)
  • Change in Private Payrolls (Jul) M/M 154K vs. Exp. 113K (Prev. 57K)
  • Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jul) M/M 24K vs. Exp. 10K (Prev. 6K)
  • US Average Hourly Earnings (Jul) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.0%)
  • US Unemployment Rate (Jul) M/M 9.1% vs. Exp. 9.2% (Prev. 9.2%)

Bloomberg's take:

  • Private payrolls rose 154k vs est. 113k (range 70k-150k);prior revised to 80k from 57k
  • Unemployment fell to 9.1% vs est. holding at 9.2% (range 9.1%-9.4%)
  • Unemployment decline due to labor force participation rate decline to 63.9%, a cyclical low, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
  • Avg. hourly earnings 0.4% increase a function of minimum wage gains; govt. continues to furlough workers, says  Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
  • Underemployment rate 16.1% vs prior 16.2%
  • Monthly growth below 150k not consistent with supporting sustained unemployment declines, notes Brusuelas
  • TJ Marta writes that the report is not all bright: unemployment rate fell because labor participation fell to 63.9% from 64.1%
  • Payrolls “beat” was within +/- 50k statistical “white noise” for non-farms econometric models
  • Longer term, report doesn’t change downward trajectory of economy, which needs 150k+ just to keep pace with new entrants to labor force
  • Household survey showed 38k decline in employment

And Wall Street knee jerk response:


"In the broader scheme of things it's really not quite as stunningly high as we would hope for but it's definitely a positive surprise. The positive revisions to last month are also a good thing.

"We would have to see a few months of job gains at a higher level than this to correct the trend higher.

"Right now Treasuries are just chopping around, which is quite interesting. They predictably fell right after the release but they're reluctant to fall too much because the trend is still weaker.

"The Fed will probably comment on recent developments but they normally don't get very excited about one data print. Maybe they will use it to justify the idea that things aren't as bad as the market thinks."


"I wouldn't say that (a double dip recession) is totally off the table but it's a much better number than the market had priced in. It's a number that is likely to give policymakers some comfort that the poorest months were May and June.

"It likely means that the fed doesn't take action next week. It doesn't allow us to totally turn the corner and put all of this behind us but it's a much better than expected number."


"Doesn't solve anything. View it more as a selling opportunity rather than a reason to get back involved on the long side. The prior revision up is encouraging but at the end of the day, we are coming off the back of last Friday's weak GDP number, Monday's ISM report and we are starting to hear some company commentary that we may be heading into or already be in a recession."

"We did trade as low as 1182 on the S&P futures overnight, the futures coming back were a function of not only concern that the number would be OK, but also some concern on behalf of the shorts that the ECB could make an announcement over the weekend, which would rally the markets. So in the futures markets there has definitely been some short covering ahead of the number and ahead of the weekend."


"It's definitely stronger than expected. It's not robust by any stretch of the imagination, but compared to a market that was nervous beforehand it's a relief. In the context of a normal recovery it's not a strong number, but in the context of the fear that's been permeating the market it's not a terrible number."


"These are pretty good numbers. Revision is up and it is stronger than expected across the board. I don't think this is enough to bring us out of a slowdown, but these are not recessionary numbers.

"In the short run, markets will react positively, but then it will become about the forward perception. How will they be going forward? How will recent events impact next month's read?"


"July's payrolls should provide a sigh of relief to those fearing a move back into recession. The 117k increase is not dramatically above expectations for a rise of 85k, but it contained upward revisions to the two preceding months, a fall in unemployment to 9.1% from 9.2% which was expected to be unchanged, and a 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings that was significantly above a 0.2% consensus. The data suggests the economy, while far from strong, is going to see some improvement from the weak pace seen in the first half of the year."

More coming as soon as actually comes up

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FoieGras's picture

Rally back to 1240/1250 next week.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Looks like futures are already fading the move.  Will need to be very careful today.

Cdad's picture

The Euro seems to have topped already against the dollar.  Dollar strength ahead, I suspect.

"Source of funds" trade probably continues...sell the winners and cover shorts on beaten down things.

Europe is still a short today.

SheepDog-One's picture

Bernank trying to figure out how he can have fear and panic, but not so much as to cause the rest of the 401K brigades to sell...quite a tightrope across the Grand Canyon act.

Cdad's picture

Indeed, Dog.  And where the Fed is involved, only failure follows.

It seems to me that the bathrobe brigade is not actually fooled by this Wall Street nonsense...not as much as they used to be.  Redemptions at cashless mutual funds to continue...

[lulz..."Fire at Valero Refinery" story IMMEDIATELY announced as "under control."  Ah, the central planners.  Where is my bottle of blue pills?]

Thorlyx's picture

They must have counted every blowjobs and handjobs to get that number.

malikai's picture

<-- QE3 > $1T

<-- QE3 < $1T

I'm thinking big. Because these are big moves these days. But I'm not so sure.

Hard1's picture

The Bernank called the BLS yesterday and instructed a statistical quantitative easing.

FoieGras's picture

Not talking about today. I just think we get a bear market bounce of 3-4% that should leave us at 1250 (prior support). Then the market could have lured in enough fools to turn arounda and drop sub 1100 for good.

Atlas_shrugging's picture

the pres would speak after a major miss?  please

mmlevine's picture

Can I call bullshit?

jus_lite_reading's picture

YES!! I smelled it from a mile away... they had to juice the numbers today to "save" the markets but it will be revised down by 100k next month... its all BS and now more people are beginning to see this... game over folks... their gig is up



r101958's picture

Agreed. There seems to be an effort, especially after the revision of Q1 GDP to a lower number than Q2 GDP, to sell the story that Q1 was the 'soft patch' and that the economy is on the upswing again and now they have another $2+ trillion to throw around. What a farce. However, the market doesn't buy the headlines anymore and is looking behind those numbers at all the fudging.

ColonelCooper's picture

Yet futures have gone vertical since the headline was released.  I'd say the market will buy a smoldering bag of dogshit as long as it's labeled "rose petals"

jus_lite_reading's picture

Lesson one. THE "NEWS" is for the retail suckers. THEY buy the news while the "smart money" aka the frauds SELL... thats how it is done...

stock investing is long dead... you can trade but be careful you might never get your money out when the SHTF...

Ruffcut's picture

"yes, you can"

Investors love the bullshit, just like a fat, ugly woman likes to hear that she is sexy and pretty.

jus_lite_reading's picture







Do I see a trend here?

Just saying... don't look to deep into it


InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Homo sapien is a strain of virus that feeds on itself and values ideas more than their own biological success.

The trend is simply population boom and bust.

you were expecting Jooooooos Bitchezzzz? sorry.


jus_lite_reading's picture

HUMAN is a disease on earth... just saying

jus_lite_reading's picture

These are the names of at least 5 Wall Street crooks. Either they are as dumb as shit toast on a hot day or they are your typical Wall Street frauds who get paid to spin the news so they can sell worthless paper. Pick one. Either way I thank TD for pointing them out. I know another hundred or so just like them over my years and I have to say many of them are there.... that is why in part everything is so FUBURed... THEY HAVE TO GO. Wall STREET needs a colon cleansing right now!!! flush out the SHIT

mtomato2's picture

"The data suggests the economy, while far from strong, is going to see some improvement from the weak pace seen in the first half of the year."




Good GOD!

SMG's picture

Why even report this stuff?   It's really nothing more than propaganda to keep the people from revolting.  I think it would be better for ZH to report the John Williams shadow stats number.   His number counts it the same way as during the depression in the 30s, simply the number of people not working. 

The current real truthful unemployment rate is 22.7%.


Founders Keeper's picture

[Why even report this stuff?   It's really nothing more than propaganda to keep the people from revolting.]---SMG

Hi SMG.  I agree, of course, it's propaganda.

However, I need to know the propaganda the state is dispensing.  I measure the propaganda against reality.  The greater the gap, the harder the fall.


Bay Area Guy's picture

Not only can you call bullshit, I encourage you to do so.  Now, I don't really care that TPTB are manufacturing numbers (since we, as a nation don't seem to manufacture anything else), but what is very worrisome to me is that I think they, themselves, BELIEVE those numbers and are developing economic policies based on the lies.  It's one thing to claim the unemployment rate is 9.1% when it's actually 16+%, but it's a whole other thing to base your policies on 9.1%.  It's insanity of the first degree.  If we, as a nation, and policy makers in particular, can't face up to the real situation we're in; if we have to sugarcoat the numbers to make people feel better and then believe in the fantasy, then we're surely going to run headlong into a brick wall.

jus_lite_reading's picture

'developing economic policy on lies' .

Isn't that what got Greece in the SHIT load of trouble?


THE US is doomed because everything was built upon lies and more lies to cover over those lies... ironic that Bernie Madeoff was made a vilan when he was simply a copycat of the global economy!!

mikeyv1970's picture

Me doth think this was not good enough.  Especially with planned layoffs increasing...

WmMcK's picture

Doth we protest too much?

malikai's picture

Revised down to 80k next week.

Shocker's picture

we did it... Yaaaa. Not at all, theses numbers still are not great. The most important part 190,000+ dropped out of the labor market, WOW

We have some serious problems with the economy, that no one is talking about

Bob's picture

Yeah, but that's what used to be called the "real" economy.  Now the tail wags the dog, then eats him for dinner. 

No problem.  A dog's just a dog. There's plenty more where he came from. 

But have you seen The Market!  Prosperity just can't be denied. 

Mr. Market knows all.   

Which is why, of course, we now look at how job reports hurt the markets to determine if they matter or not. 

machineh's picture

Summer Jobfest in the Workers Paradise -- enjoy!

docj's picture


So, does "massively oversold market" + NFP "beat" == "melt-your face off rally" on Fraud Street today?

Or does NFP "beat" + "no more QE for you" == risk-off?

We'll know soon enough.

mayhem_korner's picture

Half-life: 90 minutes.

Squid traders score on "unleaked" leveraged SPX calls early, then go home to party while reality of Spangliatti bank situation pushes indexes down 2% or more by the closing bell.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

After Fuckin' Wingnut finishes reading the RED will reappear.

docj's picture

Looks like they're already starting to walk-back the "JOY!" in this report - check the updates from Bloomies.

mayhem_korner's picture

You should see the jokers at CNBC gushing over the good news...

Wonder what they'll be retracting once things go red.

Gohn Galt's picture

I can post??  I wasn't able to read or post yesterday.  The Obama Birthday Trade. I wanted to share in the excitement.  I think that paid for another self sustainable permafarming unit and a couple of more families that won't have to depend on the government.

And docj, I think you are right, but I don't like calling the market.  I do better going with the flow or inconsistances, go in take money, get out.  Like the ocean.  Is there any other way to play this market?  (I know accumulate physical PM, way ahead you even with the silver, it makes great solder)



docj's picture

No worries, GG. I don't "play" in this market - I'm a mere observer.

Frankly, I think anyone "playing" in this casino is likely to get precisely what they deserve. I have a great deal of sympathy for anyone who has to make rent in this mess, but doing anything with this as a hobby is pure insanity.

Catullus's picture

This should help the bank run in Europe. HA HA

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

its a miracle!!!!!!!!!!!

r101958's picture

I will be the first to call 'bull schmidt'! Work force participation shrinks by 193k. So real number......about -80k.

....and that number does not even count the birth/death adjustment .....which seems to always add jobs.


jus_lite_reading's picture

If they ever printed the REAL number today in the middle of the market crash all hell would break loose (as it should) but instead they will give the fake happy number to prop things up again so we rally today on Fraud Street 500 points!! LMAO

My advice to everyone is GTFO of stocks and banks and buy gold.... simple really

r101958's picture

True, but because they live in their warped 'created perceptions' world, they neglect the fact that the market no longer buys the manipulated numbers they produce. That is the 'unintended consequence' of the 'tangled web they weave when once they practice to deceive'.

AngryGerman's picture

all problems solved. happy happy joy joy.




the not so mighty maximiza's picture

well no need for qe3 right??????