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NFP Prints At 117K, Beats Expectations Of 85K, Unemployment Rate Down To 9.1%

Tyler Durden's picture




 
  • Change in Non-Farm Payrolls M/M 117K vs. Exp. 85K (Prev. 18K)
  • Change in Private Payrolls (Jul) M/M 154K vs. Exp. 113K (Prev. 57K)
  • Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jul) M/M 24K vs. Exp. 10K (Prev. 6K)
  • US Average Hourly Earnings (Jul) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.0%)
  • US Unemployment Rate (Jul) M/M 9.1% vs. Exp. 9.2% (Prev. 9.2%)

Bloomberg's take:

  • Private payrolls rose 154k vs est. 113k (range 70k-150k);prior revised to 80k from 57k
  • Unemployment fell to 9.1% vs est. holding at 9.2% (range 9.1%-9.4%)
  • Unemployment decline due to labor force participation rate decline to 63.9%, a cyclical low, says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas
  • Avg. hourly earnings 0.4% increase a function of minimum wage gains; govt. continues to furlough workers, says  Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone
  • Underemployment rate 16.1% vs prior 16.2%
  • Monthly growth below 150k not consistent with supporting sustained unemployment declines, notes Brusuelas
  • TJ Marta writes that the report is not all bright: unemployment rate fell because labor participation fell to 63.9% from 64.1%
  • Payrolls “beat” was within +/- 50k statistical “white noise” for non-farms econometric models
  • Longer term, report doesn’t change downward trajectory of economy, which needs 150k+ just to keep pace with new entrants to labor force
  • Household survey showed 38k decline in employment

And Wall Street knee jerk response:

GENNADIY GOLDBERG, FIXED INCOME ANALYST, 4CAST INC., NEW YORK

"In the broader scheme of things it's really not quite as stunningly high as we would hope for but it's definitely a positive surprise. The positive revisions to last month are also a good thing.

"We would have to see a few months of job gains at a higher level than this to correct the trend higher.

"Right now Treasuries are just chopping around, which is quite interesting. They predictably fell right after the release but they're reluctant to fall too much because the trend is still weaker.

"The Fed will probably comment on recent developments but they normally don't get very excited about one data print. Maybe they will use it to justify the idea that things aren't as bad as the market thinks."

MICHAEL GAPEN, SENIOR U.S. ECONOMIST, BARCLAYS CAPITAL, NEW YORK

"I wouldn't say that (a double dip recession) is totally off the table but it's a much better number than the market had priced in. It's a number that is likely to give policymakers some comfort that the poorest months were May and June.

"It likely means that the fed doesn't take action next week. It doesn't allow us to totally turn the corner and put all of this behind us but it's a much better than expected number."

MICHAEL MARRALE, MANAGING DIRECTOR, AND HEAD OF SALES TRADING AT RBC CAPITAL MARKETS IN NEW YORK

"Doesn't solve anything. View it more as a selling opportunity rather than a reason to get back involved on the long side. The prior revision up is encouraging but at the end of the day, we are coming off the back of last Friday's weak GDP number, Monday's ISM report and we are starting to hear some company commentary that we may be heading into or already be in a recession."

"We did trade as low as 1182 on the S&P futures overnight, the futures coming back were a function of not only concern that the number would be OK, but also some concern on behalf of the shorts that the ECB could make an announcement over the weekend, which would rally the markets. So in the futures markets there has definitely been some short covering ahead of the number and ahead of the weekend."

ERIC STEIN, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, EATON VANCE, BOSTON

"It's definitely stronger than expected. It's not robust by any stretch of the imagination, but compared to a market that was nervous beforehand it's a relief. In the context of a normal recovery it's not a strong number, but in the context of the fear that's been permeating the market it's not a terrible number."

JAY FEUERSTEIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF 2100 XENON GROUP IN CHICAGO

"These are pretty good numbers. Revision is up and it is stronger than expected across the board. I don't think this is enough to bring us out of a slowdown, but these are not recessionary numbers.

"In the short run, markets will react positively, but then it will become about the forward perception. How will they be going forward? How will recent events impact next month's read?"

DAVID SLOAN, ECONOMIST, IFR ECONOMICS, A UNIT OF THOMSON REUTERS

"July's payrolls should provide a sigh of relief to those fearing a move back into recession. The 117k increase is not dramatically above expectations for a rise of 85k, but it contained upward revisions to the two preceding months, a fall in unemployment to 9.1% from 9.2% which was expected to be unchanged, and a 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings that was significantly above a 0.2% consensus. The data suggests the economy, while far from strong, is going to see some improvement from the weak pace seen in the first half of the year."

More coming as soon as bls.gov actually comes up

 

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Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:30 | 1526248 FoieGras
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Rally back to 1240/1250 next week.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:39 | 1526282 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Looks like futures are already fading the move.  Will need to be very careful today.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:56 | 1526365 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The Euro seems to have topped already against the dollar.  Dollar strength ahead, I suspect.

"Source of funds" trade probably continues...sell the winners and cover shorts on beaten down things.

Europe is still a short today.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:06 | 1526412 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bernank trying to figure out how he can have fear and panic, but not so much as to cause the rest of the 401K brigades to sell...quite a tightrope across the Grand Canyon act.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:16 | 1526448 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Indeed, Dog.  And where the Fed is involved, only failure follows.

It seems to me that the bathrobe brigade is not actually fooled by this Wall Street nonsense...not as much as they used to be.  Redemptions at cashless mutual funds to continue...

[lulz..."Fire at Valero Refinery" story IMMEDIATELY announced as "under control."  Ah, the central planners.  Where is my bottle of blue pills?]

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:12 | 1526650 Thorlyx
Thorlyx's picture

They must have counted every blowjobs and handjobs to get that number.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:11 | 1526449 malikai
malikai's picture

<-- QE3 > $1T

<-- QE3 < $1T

I'm thinking big. Because these are big moves these days. But I'm not so sure.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:44 | 1526554 Hard1
Hard1's picture

The Bernank called the BLS yesterday and instructed a statistical quantitative easing.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:34 | 1526528 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Not talking about today. I just think we get a bear market bounce of 3-4% that should leave us at 1250 (prior support). Then the market could have lured in enough fools to turn arounda and drop sub 1100 for good.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:28 | 1526251 Atlas_shrugging
Atlas_shrugging's picture

the pres would speak after a major miss?  please

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:31 | 1526252 mmlevine
mmlevine's picture

Can I call bullshit?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:38 | 1526280 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

YES!! I smelled it from a mile away... they had to juice the numbers today to "save" the markets but it will be revised down by 100k next month... its all BS and now more people are beginning to see this... game over folks... their gig is up

 

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:51 | 1526351 r101958
r101958's picture

Agreed. There seems to be an effort, especially after the revision of Q1 GDP to a lower number than Q2 GDP, to sell the story that Q1 was the 'soft patch' and that the economy is on the upswing again and now they have another $2+ trillion to throw around. What a farce. However, the market doesn't buy the headlines anymore and is looking behind those numbers at all the fudging.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:02 | 1526381 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Yet futures have gone vertical since the headline was released.  I'd say the market will buy a smoldering bag of dogshit as long as it's labeled "rose petals"

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:11 | 1526433 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Lesson one. THE "NEWS" is for the retail suckers. THEY buy the news while the "smart money" aka the frauds SELL... thats how it is done...

stock investing is long dead... you can trade but be careful you might never get your money out when the SHTF...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:42 | 1526297 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

"yes, you can"

Investors love the bullshit, just like a fat, ugly woman likes to hear that she is sexy and pretty.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:57 | 1526320 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

ERIC STEIN,

JAY FEUERSTEIN,

DAVID SLOAN,

GENNADIY GOLDBERG,

MICHAEL GAPEN, 

 

Do I see a trend here?

Just saying... don't look to deep into it

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:03 | 1526617 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Homo sapien is a strain of virus that feeds on itself and values ideas more than their own biological success.

The trend is simply population boom and bust.

you were expecting Jooooooos Bitchezzzz? sorry.

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:05 | 1526628 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

HUMAN is a disease on earth... just saying

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:04 | 1526620 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

These are the names of at least 5 Wall Street crooks. Either they are as dumb as shit toast on a hot day or they are your typical Wall Street frauds who get paid to spin the news so they can sell worthless paper. Pick one. Either way I thank TD for pointing them out. I know another hundred or so just like them over my years and I have to say many of them are there.... that is why in part everything is so FUBURed... THEY HAVE TO GO. Wall STREET needs a colon cleansing right now!!! flush out the SHIT

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:51 | 1526336 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

"The data suggests the economy, while far from strong, is going to see some improvement from the weak pace seen in the first half of the year."

 

DO THESE PEOPLE ACTUALLY STILL THINK ANYONE LISTENS TO THEM ANYMORE!?!?!

 

Good GOD!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:21 | 1526485 SMG
SMG's picture

Why even report this stuff?   It's really nothing more than propaganda to keep the people from revolting.  I think it would be better for ZH to report the John Williams shadow stats number.   His number counts it the same way as during the depression in the 30s, simply the number of people not working. 

The current real truthful unemployment rate is 22.7%.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:54 | 1526585 Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

[Why even report this stuff?   It's really nothing more than propaganda to keep the people from revolting.]---SMG

Hi SMG.  I agree, of course, it's propaganda.

However, I need to know the propaganda the state is dispensing.  I measure the propaganda against reality.  The greater the gap, the harder the fall.

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:33 | 1526534 Bay Area Guy
Bay Area Guy's picture

Not only can you call bullshit, I encourage you to do so.  Now, I don't really care that TPTB are manufacturing numbers (since we, as a nation don't seem to manufacture anything else), but what is very worrisome to me is that I think they, themselves, BELIEVE those numbers and are developing economic policies based on the lies.  It's one thing to claim the unemployment rate is 9.1% when it's actually 16+%, but it's a whole other thing to base your policies on 9.1%.  It's insanity of the first degree.  If we, as a nation, and policy makers in particular, can't face up to the real situation we're in; if we have to sugarcoat the numbers to make people feel better and then believe in the fantasy, then we're surely going to run headlong into a brick wall.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:08 | 1526636 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

'developing economic policy on lies' .

Isn't that what got Greece in the SHIT load of trouble?

YES YES YES

THE US is doomed because everything was built upon lies and more lies to cover over those lies... ironic that Bernie Madeoff was made a vilan when he was simply a copycat of the global economy!!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:31 | 1526253 mikeyv1970
mikeyv1970's picture

Me doth think this was not good enough.  Especially with planned layoffs increasing...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:51 | 1526340 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Doth we protest too much?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:31 | 1526254 malikai
malikai's picture

Revised down to 80k next week.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:31 | 1526255 Shocker
Shocker's picture

we did it... Yaaaa. Not at all, theses numbers still are not great. The most important part 190,000+ dropped out of the labor market, WOW

We have some serious problems with the economy, that no one is talking about

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:15 | 1526437 Bob
Bob's picture

Yeah, but that's what used to be called the "real" economy.  Now the tail wags the dog, then eats him for dinner. 

No problem.  A dog's just a dog. There's plenty more where he came from. 

But have you seen The Market!  Prosperity just can't be denied. 

Mr. Market knows all.   

Which is why, of course, we now look at how job reports hurt the markets to determine if they matter or not. 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:31 | 1526256 machineh
machineh's picture

Summer Jobfest in the Workers Paradise -- enjoy!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:32 | 1526257 docj
docj's picture

In-credible.

So, does "massively oversold market" + NFP "beat" == "melt-your face off rally" on Fraud Street today?

Or does NFP "beat" + "no more QE for you" == risk-off?

We'll know soon enough.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:40 | 1526283 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Half-life: 90 minutes.

Squid traders score on "unleaked" leveraged SPX calls early, then go home to party while reality of Spangliatti bank situation pushes indexes down 2% or more by the closing bell.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:51 | 1526334 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

After Fuckin' Wingnut finishes reading the RED will reappear.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:02 | 1526382 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

"reading"  LOL

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:54 | 1526358 docj
docj's picture

Looks like they're already starting to walk-back the "JOY!" in this report - check the updates from Bloomies.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:03 | 1526618 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

You should see the jokers at CNBC gushing over the good news...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44031964/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

Wonder what they'll be retracting once things go red.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:17 | 1526456 Gohn Galt
Gohn Galt's picture

I can post??  I wasn't able to read or post yesterday.  The Obama Birthday Trade. I wanted to share in the excitement.  I think that paid for another self sustainable permafarming unit and a couple of more families that won't have to depend on the government.

And docj, I think you are right, but I don't like calling the market.  I do better going with the flow or inconsistances, go in take money, get out.  Like the ocean.  Is there any other way to play this market?  (I know accumulate physical PM, way ahead you even with the silver, it makes great solder)

 

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:24 | 1526488 docj
docj's picture

No worries, GG. I don't "play" in this market - I'm a mere observer.

Frankly, I think anyone "playing" in this casino is likely to get precisely what they deserve. I have a great deal of sympathy for anyone who has to make rent in this mess, but doing anything with this as a hobby is pure insanity.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:32 | 1526258 Catullus
Catullus's picture

This should help the bank run in Europe. HA HA

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:32 | 1526261 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

its a miracle!!!!!!!!!!!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:44 | 1526314 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

i can see and walk again, praise the lord

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:53 | 1526355 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

"What SAY there, Fuzzy Britches!!  Feel like talkin'!?!"

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:10 | 1526431 Broomer
Broomer's picture

Mein Führer! I can walk!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiwKb-x7wXQ

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:39 | 1526262 r101958
r101958's picture

I will be the first to call 'bull schmidt'! Work force participation shrinks by 193k. So real number......about -80k.

....and that number does not even count the birth/death adjustment .....which seems to always add jobs.

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:43 | 1526306 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

If they ever printed the REAL number today in the middle of the market crash all hell would break loose (as it should) but instead they will give the fake happy number to prop things up again so we rally today on Fraud Street 500 points!! LMAO

My advice to everyone is GTFO of stocks and banks and buy gold.... simple really

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:59 | 1526375 r101958
r101958's picture

True, but because they live in their warped 'created perceptions' world, they neglect the fact that the market no longer buys the manipulated numbers they produce. That is the 'unintended consequence' of the 'tangled web they weave when once they practice to deceive'.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:33 | 1526263 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

all problems solved. happy happy joy joy.

 

 

idiots

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:34 | 1526264 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

well no need for qe3 right??????

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:41 | 1526292 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

It'll be harder for them, but they'll push for it anyway.

Surprised by the beat. Still not enough to dent anything

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:34 | 1526265 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Wow! That is... um... still rather bad. We'll rally regardless.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:35 | 1526266 Gert_B_Frobe
Gert_B_Frobe's picture

Well, at least they didn't get greedy and have the cooked number show up as 8% unemployment.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:35 | 1526267 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

QE3 no dice for Jackson Hole. All the QE3 hype has just gone up in smoke.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:53 | 1526345 malikai
malikai's picture

No, setups like these take weeks. Right now we're in the early volatility stage. Next will come the panic stage. Finally will come the solution stage, where we're offered QE3 or die. I'm astonished by the speed of this though. We're seeing things move like in 2008. This bronco is bucking.

How many more of these games before confidence is lost absolutely in both the government and market?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:36 | 1526268 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

labor participation down to 63.9

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:55 | 1526361 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Dude, your avatar is freakin' awesome.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:36 | 1526271 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Get ready for a +1000 day on the Dow.  All they had to do was put out a cooked number and it's to the moon!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:37 | 1526272 machineh
machineh's picture

Perfect setup for a classic '9:45 am flameout.'

STFP -- Sell The Freaking Pop!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:40 | 1526305 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Flameout indeed, friend. It'll all go sour in the afternoon hours like after 1:30 only to be interrupted by the PPT. Off we go into the weekend memories of Thursday a distant past...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:05 | 1526625 machineh
machineh's picture

'9:45 am flameout' -- CHECK!!!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:37 | 1526273 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

those #'s are cooked! 

 

I guess my predictions were all wrong. no excuses. but the #'s are cooked!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:35 | 1526274 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

QE3 happened yesterday Long Bond up 4 points, suckit-Trabeck, er, Bernanke.....

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:56 | 1526366 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Suckit long, and suckit hard.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:38 | 1526278 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

hahhahah if these numbers are fake, then obama isnt a us citizen.....oh wait, he ISNT

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:38 | 1526279 Marcuz Aurelius
Marcuz Aurelius's picture

Riiight, oh well i bet those numbers will see some backwarded pressure the coming months !

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:40 | 1526284 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Wall St must be really desperate when a number than bad sets off a rally that big!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:40 | 1526285 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Next they'll be teling us the grain crops are good this year.

 

from: Moscow on the Hudson (1984)

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:40 | 1526286 AxiosAdv
AxiosAdv's picture

Best number we've had in some time.  I've been a big bear for a while, but from a corporate perspective, things here aren't that bad.  Sovereign-wise its different, but this is a pretty good number.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:58 | 1526372 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Shit.

It that's a "good number" then Napolitano is a "hot chick."

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 19:47 | 1528561 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Why yes, the fundamentals are strong, as well.

 

[/sarcasm]

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:40 | 1526287 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

It's a FESTIVUS MIRACLE! 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:41 | 1526288 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Cannot wait to see this 230k BD model number.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:44 | 1526289 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

People dropping off into the abyss.

Short squeeze today, back to business next week.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:41 | 1526291 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Expectations were beaten like a couple walking home from a Wisconsin State Fair

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:40 | 1526293 tim73
tim73's picture

Tractor production figures for next five years will be AWESOME! And another record wheat crop! Oh wait, this is not USSR?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:45 | 1526315 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Chocolate rations to be doubled next week!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:53 | 1526352 machineh
machineh's picture

Free beer if grain production quota is met.

All hands to the harvest!

BYOS -- Bring Your Own Scythe

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:08 | 1526379 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

These days that book is much too serious to be used as any kind of humor...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:42 | 1526294 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

BO revising his speech to say jobs are improving, unemployment is down, markets are up and all is going well.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:41 | 1526295 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

Birth/death Tyler?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:52 | 1526347 WhOracle
WhOracle's picture

B/D not available for the moment

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:43 | 1526296 MrJingles
MrJingles's picture

Fabrication bitchez!

No rally today IMO

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:42 | 1526298 laomei
laomei's picture

Juked stats and nothing more.  They just make shit up now and we all know it.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:45 | 1526325 malikai
malikai's picture

Apparently, some people still believe this shit.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:43 | 1526300 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

1. How many of these jobs are birth/death adjustments?

2. With 400k+ jobless claims per week, how is the job number even positive?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:42 | 1526301 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

1.  Enough to relieve the market of a plunge below 1200. 

2. BB could still do QE3 on those jobs numbers, no problemo. 

3. BTFD day today. 

4. Short  covering. 

= Robo-trader revenge day.   

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:55 | 1526371 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Robotrader revenge? LOL, dont forget he was posting his 'Better go all-in long here at 12,700 for the 'debt deal' huge run up'. If these big bulls put their money where their mouths were then theyre all crew cut. Leo too, famous Wednesday nite post about going all in long for the 500 point drop. Wont hear from those 2 for a while I'd bet.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:18 | 1526466 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Many tears for bull tards, hee hee.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:43 | 1526302 Cursive
Cursive's picture

BTE! The revelution is postponed! Not.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:43 | 1526303 Gibu The Great
Gibu The Great's picture

I said yesterday I thought we would get a big surprise. I figured we'd get a 100k+ print but honestly thought it'd just be to mask a downward revision of the +18k last month, but that was revised up to +46k. Now I'm thinking we'll rally hard today but half expect a serious fade into the close... or even right after the AM pop. Too much isht going on out there.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:43 | 1526304 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Looks like them Cheeseburgers will be served quicker then?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:43 | 1526307 highwaytoserfdom
highwaytoserfdom's picture

____ __ __ _ _ _____ __ __ ____ ______ ____ ____ ____ ______ ____ __ ____ ____ ____ ______ ____ ___ ____ | \ | T T| T | T / ___/| T Tl j| T | \ / T| \| Tl j / ]l j| \ / T| Tl j/ \ | \ | o )| | || | | | ( \_ | l | | T | | | o )Y o || D ) | | T / / | T | o )Y o || | | TY Y| _ Y | T| | || l___ | l___ \__ T| _ | | | l_j l_j | _/ | || /l_j l_j | | / / | | | _/ | |l_j l_j | || O || | | | O || : || T| T/ \ || | | | | | | | | | _ || \ | | | |/ \_ | | | | | _ | | | | || || | | | |l || || |\ || | | j l | | | | | | || . Y | | j l\ | j l | | | | | | | j ll !| | | l_____j \__,_jl_____jl_____j \___jl__j__j|____j l__j l__j l__j__jl__j\_j l__j |____j\____j|____jl__j l__j__j l__j |____j\___/ l__j__j

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:49 | 1526329 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Looks like you Hayek'd up a hairball.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:05 | 1526401 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

 

 

Amateur

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        MM

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:16 | 1526453 malikai
malikai's picture

 

 

Lame.

....................../´¯/) 
....................,/¯../ 
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............./´¯/'...'/´¯¯`·¸ 
........../'/.../..../......./¨¯\ 
........('(...´...´.... ¯~/'...') 
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..........''...\.......... _.·´ 
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Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:44 | 1526308 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

In the context of a normal recovery it's not a strong number, but in the context of the fear that's been permeating the market it's not a terrible number.

I think that gets to the heart of the matter.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:46 | 1526322 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Yea, a horribly shitty print of 117k jobs with a huge Birth/Death adjustment will help the insolvency issues in Europe.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:53 | 1526356 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

I think you missed my point.  Everybody got scared to death yesterday, so they're celebrating what, in any other context, would be a crap number.  It's just a continuation of the usual celebration over bad news (yay!  we were at 398k instead of 400k...ooops).

And no, of course this won't help Europe at all.  I think there'll be the usual irrational jump at the open followed by another drop as people start to actually think this through.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:07 | 1526417 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

That 'pop' in the futures was provided by anybody but investors.  This is all just for show.  I knew at 3:00 am when the futures went up 100 points in about 2 minutes that they were going balls-to-the-wall on the intervention today.

The NFP has nothing to do with it other that it provides some sort of pretense of absurd 'plausibility'.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:44 | 1526310 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Now the PPT is working for the BLS?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:51 | 1526337 snowball777
snowball777's picture

It's a mandate!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:44 | 1526311 Racer
Racer's picture

Ooops, they made a mistake... Chairsatan needed bad numbers for his printing press didn't he?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:44 | 1526312 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

Stop all the doom and gloom. PG had a great quarter and is forecasting continued good numbers. This is a very good jobs number -- plus the prior months were revised UP.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:50 | 1526331 docj
docj's picture

+117K and 9.1% FUNemployment in the 2nd year of a "recovery" is a "good number"?

Seriously dude, that's not even elementary-school level trolling and you've been here long enough to know better.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:33 | 1526531 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

that's not even elementary-school level trolling

Not very good at it is It? Maybe it's a robo troll.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:45 | 1526316 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

govt. continues to furlough workers, says Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone

Oh, if it where only true.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:45 | 1526318 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

Happy days are here again!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:43 | 1526319 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Futures already tipping off their surge.

Market needs it's Pomo

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:46 | 1526321 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

Let me guess ... after Jay Carney claimed yesterday that Obama does not create jobs, Obama will today take full credit for the creation of these jobs. And his lackeys in the media will lap it up.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:47 | 1526323 Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

Things like this don't even surprise me anymore... allowing things to go bankrupt, fail, lose money etc. is no longer acceptable.  Its just a part of the unanounced "No company left behind" strategy... Preventing the inevitable crash will make it that much harder when it does crash... Its getting to the point where they're bailing water on the titanic with a teacup...

 

But the longer they drag this out, the more shinies i can acquire and the more shocked the general sheep will be when it falls apart...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:45 | 1526324 highwaytoserfdom
highwaytoserfdom's picture

_ _ _ _ _ _ | | | | | | | (_) |  | |__ _ _| | |___| |__ _| |_ | '_ \| | | | | / __| '_ \| | __| | |_) | |_| | | \__ \ | | | | |_ |_.__/ \__,_|_|_|___/_| |_|_|\__|

_ | | ___ ___ __ _ ___ ___ _ __ __ _| | / __|/ _ \/ _` / __|/ _ \| '_ \ / _` | | \__ \ __/ (_| \__ \ (_) | | | | (_| | | |___/\___|\__,_|___/\___/|_| |_|\__,_|_|


Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:51 | 1526339 Juan Wild
Juan Wild's picture

oops, try again

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:51 | 1526341 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

||||_____|||||(_)((((())))))|||||||||||._______((()))))

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:52 | 1526342 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

||||_____|||||(_)((((())))))|||||||||||._______((()))))

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:53 | 1526359 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Please tell us you've had an aneurysm and collapsed onto the right half of your keyboard.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:49 | 1526326 dawgfan
dawgfan's picture

I glad others thinks these numbers are crap. With the sell-off yesterday you know they had to come up with something this morning. It's ashame they give up any crediability for politics.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:49 | 1526327 Marge N. Callz
Marge N. Callz's picture

BLS website down.  They don't want anyone to sift through the bullshit or see how many the birth/death model added.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:02 | 1526391 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Nothing to see here sheeple, move along!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:49 | 1526330 Juan Wild
Juan Wild's picture

Dow futures +90

 

They'll never learn

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:47 | 1526333 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

pcln will lead the market higher  +$50 after market on earnings..seems all the jobless go on vacation for less.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:57 | 1526367 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Every time I see "pcln," I read it as penicillin.  And then I think that the market needs a much stronger antibiotic to clear this infection.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:51 | 1526335 highwaytoserfdom
highwaytoserfdom's picture

if you cannot  read ascii text    the numbers are Bullshit..   The participation and seasonial  are propaganda.. Numbers are horrid.. 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:05 | 1526402 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

He's alive!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:05 | 1526404 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

He's alive!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:52 | 1526343 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

The takedown should be impressive - Silver has to be sold like a monkey -or, yes, here it goes

JPM has to restablish some dominance

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:34 | 1526523 Klaus Daimler
Klaus Daimler's picture

I was thinking the same thing, but that sure didn't last long.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:53 | 1526353 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

As I expected, this NFP is simply underwhelming to both sides. In fact, it's downright depressing to every American because it's confirming that the big old US engine of growth is chocking on its own fumes. 

At this stage in the business cycle we should be approaching peak growth, and huge employment gains. Not looking at contraction everywhere

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:53 | 1526354 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

+115K jobs where? Lets see the list of companies that went on hiring sprees...that cant be shown. Anyway watch out Bernank your little market drop causes no fear and panic in 30 minute attention span america. You have to do better than that.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:59 | 1526374 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Last few BLS reports have been cruising on fudge-factor only. 

Without B/D and counting on revisions, we gained 1 job 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 14:19 | 1527746 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

 

 

" +115K jobs where? Lets see the list of companies ... "

 

SURE won't be Cisco ...

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:54 | 1526357 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

My guess is that is the last +100k print we see for 3 ms. Everything frooze in july. What little confidence there was evaporated.

Douple dip recission and an incompetent to the point of dangerous political system has consequences; nobody hires.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:55 | 1526362 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

They solved the past problem of discovering real number looking at B/D...just keep the site down.going forward the birth death will be released a month later..Presto

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:53 | 1526363 oogs66
oogs66's picture

where the birth/death adjustment?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:29 | 1526509 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

where the birth/death adjustment?

It's hiding in Bernanke's basement with the M3

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:56 | 1526364 warchopper
warchopper's picture

Last time to get out before the proverbial shit hits the fan.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:57 | 1526369 louisianagold
louisianagold's picture

The lipstick has been applied to the pig.

All is well now.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:58 | 1526370 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Wow, look at the effort to keep the futures juiced into the open.  Man, that's some serious effort.  I hope those guys get Gatorade breaks and free wrist bands.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:00 | 1526378 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The unbearable lightness of employment

OR

The unbelievable silliness of creating an economic model based on outsourcing

 

Thank you, 1980s. 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:01 | 1526380 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

The BLS site will be down until 4:01 EST when you will then discover that the Birth/Death model added 200K jobs this month. Fade this Pop.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:03 | 1526394 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

230k actually.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:03 | 1526415 r101958
r101958's picture

Thanks. BLS site is down still so can't check what that figure is.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:10 | 1526432 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Actual number basing on past BD adds is -150K at least....yea buy the dip gamblers. 'Birth/Death' adjustment biggest bunch of crap in economic history.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:51 | 1526577 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

It's up now.  Is this right?  B/D for July was -18k? http://bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:02 | 1526385 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

... see, it really was a spending problem... two jobs in every household... Grover for President...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:02 | 1526386 GD
GD's picture

Fake data! Short covering and selling on strength. BS continues...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:05 | 1526405 jms2112
jms2112's picture

Well did anyone NOT see this coming?

Up 500 points today...

Whatever

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:05 | 1526406 r101958
r101958's picture

futures went from -50 to +50. Well, maybe the market is buying the story......but wait.....the BLS site is down........so the market can't check the B/D model figures......or anything else for that matter.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:08 | 1526421 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Futures already faded 50 points from this garbage data. Anyone buying on this is simply a degenerate gambler, bottom line.

BLS, why dont you post the data whats wrong your gubment site is down all morning? Pure BS.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:09 | 1526426 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Seriously....they are going to withhold the B/D model info into the close?  You have to be joking. 

OH, the site is down.  It's just a coincidence.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!