NFP Prints At 120K, Below Expectations Of 125K, Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.6%

Tyler Durden's picture

NFP Prints At 120K, Below Expectations Of 125K, Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.6% on Expectations of 9.0%. And for those wondering how it is possible to have such a major drop in the unemployment rate, here it is: Labor Force Participation down from 64.2% to 64.0% as ever more people leave the work force once again.

From the Report:

In November, the unemployment rate declined by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent. From April through October, the rate held in a narrow range from 9.0 to 9.2 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 13.3 million, was down by 594,000 in November. The labor force, which is the sum of the unemployed and employed, was down by a little more than half that amount. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men fell by 0.5 percentage point to 8.3 percent in November. The jobless rate for whites (7.6 percent) also declined, while the rates for adult women (7.8 percent), teenagers (23.7 percent), blacks (15.5 percent), and Hispanics (11.4 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In November, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs declined by 432,000 to 7.6 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.7 million and accounted for 43.0 percent of the unemployed. (See tables A-11 and A-12.)

The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 64.0 percent. The employment-population ratio, at 58.5 percent, changed little. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) dropped by 378,000 over the month to 8.5 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)

In November, 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about the same as a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in November, a decrease of 186,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work in  the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

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silver500's picture

This game is getting more and more stupid...

Non farm payrolls degenerating into a complete farce

JPM Hater001's picture

And what did you expect?

We will be back at full employment by June next year.  Of course it will be based on 1984 labor participation but quit with the details already.

silver500's picture

Yes probably or maybe Gerald Celente's prediction of a financial collapse by Q1 2012 will come true.

dwdollar's picture

The real reason the unemployment dropped:

With the recent rally, there is a good chance of raising animal spirits. Why not just kick everyone off the radar and peg the unemployment at 3% you say? Well, it has to be believable to the average American idiot. Plus, it saves some ammunition for the future.

I put absolutely 0 faith in government statistics.

EscapeKey's picture

I put absolutely 0 faith in government statistics.

BLS find that this is better than expected.

French Frog's picture

there is a potentially bearish-developing head & shoulder on the nfp chart; anyone else see it?

TruthInSunshine's picture

[I feel obligated to post this tidbit of truth in case any noobs to Zero Hedge, having been fluffed & brain-watered by the Main Steam Media Proxy Mouthpieces of the Ministry of Goebbels, stop by and find an opportunity to take their virgin dose of the red pill]

Point A:          350,000 people left the work force (350k more 'discouraged workers' last month alone) and are no longer counted when tabulating employment/unemployment data.


Point B:         There was a net gain of 120,000 jobs in the U.S. economy last month, as 120,000 more employees were hired than were fired, based on today's NFP report from the BLS.


Point C:         The U.S. unemployment rate, based on today's NFP report from the BLS, dropped to 8.6% from 9.0% a month ago, which is the lowest level of 'official' unemployment since March of 2009.


Point D:        Can you spot the glaring bullshit above that could only be sold convincingly to only the most sheepliest of sheeple, bitchez? By the laws of mathematics, which the BLS can't veto, no matter how hard the CONfidence tag-team trio of The Bernank, BLS & Geithner try, it looks to me as if a rational methodology for tabulating employment/unemployment would have shown A NEGATIVE JOB PRINT & A HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENTAGE, all things being equal.


We've not only arrived at Orwell's 1984 moment (consider also the new Defense Bill passed overwhelmingly by the Senate this week, which allows for the indefinite detainment and imprisonment of American Citizens plucked from U.S. soil, without any charges ever having to be filed let alone due process of a trivial trial [/sarc/] having to occur), Orwell, if he were to rise from the grave and visit his nation today, would utter W-T-F, before voluntarily crawling back into his grave. 

OCTOPVS's picture

or we could do a retracement to -400,000.  :)

Doomsday Profit's picture

There is a simple human concept at work:

When EVERYONE in business is incentivized to lie

And EVERYONE in authority is incentivized for EVERYONE in business to lie

EVERYONE in business AND government lies! 

Doomsday Profit's picture

What? got to be a shill to get a reply around here???

Iam_Silverman's picture

"What? got to be a shill to get a reply around here???"

Nope, but Mr. Obvious type statements are a dime a dozen.

swissbene's picture

until the lie becomes the truth ... remember to always think twice

GeezerGeek's picture

If the Obama administration says this, it MUST be true. He didn't lie about wanting to redistribute the wealth, did he? He didn't lie about being willing to invade Pakistan (, did he? Why do so many distrust him now?

Iam_Silverman's picture

"Why do so many distrust him now?"

Because of his unspoken agenda?

boiltherich's picture

With the two prior months revised upward by 70,000 one has to wonder if they could not count then or if they can't count now.

But this is really a serious problem, it means there is a small army of citizens out there who are not only unemployed but who now have no benefits of any kind. 

chubbar's picture

OT, but as good a place to post this as anywhere. Recall the Missouri Information Analysis Center report (which is one of 58 "fusion" centers that the DHS uses to assess threats) that somehow was sent to the Missouri State police as an action memo? It outlined several factors and thought processes that were supposedly indicative of what a "terrorist" or person of interest would do. Some of the more popular were displaying Ron Paul stickers, belonging to a milita, buying gold, etc. The theory espoused in that memo detailed several "conspiracy" themes, one of which was that these types of people believed that the gov't was subverting the constitution by constructing a "North American Union". The memo was written in such a manner as to invite ricidule and a sense of absurdity towards any individual thinking in this manner.

Todays news.

"OTTAWA—Armed U.S. police officers will for the first time be allowed to operate in Canada along with the RCMP as part of far-reaching changes in Canadian-American border operations to be unveiled next week by Prime Minister Stephen Harper and President Barack Obama.

The joint action plan to be announced at the White House will also break new ground by introducing exit-entry records that will track the movements of everyone who leaves the United States or Canada, with the information available to authorities in both countries.

In the months and years ahead, the deal between Ottawa and Washington will reshape security, travel and commercial arrangements at the border in a variety of profound ways — some of which have already raised alarms among Canadians.

The agreement, which has been the subject of confidential negotiations since last winter, is intended to reverse the economically damaging border tie-ups that have been growing since Sept. 11, 2001, while upgrading anti-crime and anti-terrorist security for both countries.

In contrast to the silence from Canadian negotiators, some U.S. officials have been open about what the new reality at the border will look like in the years ahead.

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder revealed last fall that the deal will authorize Canada and the U.S. to designate officers who can take part in police investigations on both sides of the border. The pilot project, Holder said, will improve the two countries’ ability to deal with the “unprecedented” threats along the border from terrorists, human smugglers, illegal firearms traffickers and drug dealers."

The Missouri Police report, in case you haven't read it.

The excerpt I'm referring to is on page 4 (can't copy/paste from this format).


chubbar's picture

Added comment, Do you think the southern border or northern border of the US deserves the most attention with regard to "terrorists, human smugglers, illegal firearms and drug dealers"? (please reference operation fast and furious, beheadings at the mexican border, U.S. land now off limits to US citizens because of drug gang activity, border agent shootings, etc).

Our gov't, that is to say the people who are making these decisions, are fucked up beyond all imagination AND/OR there is something else going on beyond what is being conveyed to us.

Confused's picture

Southern border is a non-issue. How else would the government allow drugs INTO the country, sell weapons to drug dealers, and then create agencies (from which they reap huge benefits) that they populate with friends and family?



Totentänzerlied's picture

The really scary part is that they have friends or family.

Iam_Silverman's picture

"Do you think the southern border or northern border of the US deserves the most attention with regard to "terrorists, human smugglers, illegal firearms and drug dealers"? "

Hands down - the Northern Border needs far more attention!  It really worries me the way they allow those danged Canadians to cross freely, carrying sackloads of currency that is equal to ours!  Sacrilege!  Why won't they respect the nature of our World Reserve Currency FRN's?



trav7777's picture

"unprecedented"???  What the fuck is that stupid monkey talking about?

There's nothing whatsoever unprecedented or exceptional about ANY of it.

HoofHearted's picture

Where are my 4 sigmas? I want my four standard deviations right now!!!!

GolfHatesMe's picture

4 std in the rate dropping.  Probably actually a million standard deviations as noone was off 9.0

mayhem_korner's picture



I think we should be measuring standard deviants.

DeadFred's picture

Before the release there were articles that gave the NFP forcasts as ranging as high as above 200K. I can't find anyone but Tyler who went above 200K. Even if his sarcasm was missed the article was read and and number in that range would have brought ridicule to the BLS. I declare that Tyler single-handedly shamed them into a brief period of honesty. Yeah!

EscapeKey's picture

"U.S. stock futures hold gains after jobs data"

Right, so we rally on expectations, and when they miss, the rally keeps going.

Yes, that makes total sense.

docj's picture

Yep, a sub-population growth jobs number print (which will almost certainly be downward-revised going forward) is bullish. Because everyting is bullish - that's how the HAL9000's in the GS basement are programed and since that's all who's left in "the market" that's just how it is.

I'm trying to just embrace the "is-ness" of things and behave accordingly.

LawsofPhysics's picture

We rally through december as bonuses must be paid, after that the world must either accept that the growth model is long dead and deal with all the insolvent nations, or print to infinity, there simply are no other options as most will continue to deleverage.  I guess WWIII is always an option as it would benefit TPTB.  Have a good holiday, moght be time to reconnect with those family members who are particularly good at working with their hands and actually know how to make things that are essential for your survival.  No harm in making a free hedge.

slaughterer's picture

8.6%??  So who needs QE3 at this point?   

LawsofPhysics's picture

As sick as it sounds, the answer to your question is that QE3 will be required to simply pay the interest on the (mostly fraudulent) debt.

CPL's picture



I wonder if they are counting the dead.  Completely serious here.

docj's picture

Heh - yeah. John Williams and SGS to rip that to shreds in 5... 4... 3...

dwdollar's picture

Damn, a lot of people must have dropped off the radar.

trampstamp's picture

Yeah, NO way with these prints it would drop that low. Wake up America! Your goverment at work trying to screw the little man.


I guess the govt. is giving out red beans this morning lol

HoofHearted's picture

Benjamin Disraeli was right. This is utter fucking bullshit. 8.6%...let's pull that out of our ass and see if it sticks with the MSM. Well, whaddya know? They bought it. Maybe we can get Obama reelected by making all this shit up.

(For those taking the red pills, Disraeli said, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.")

Toolshed's picture

"There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

That quote is originally from Mark Twain.

boiltherich's picture

You should not forget that the unemployment RATE is calculated from a completely seperate household survey they get by telephone and is not even remotely related to other employment data.  Of course once upon a time I thought they just added up all the 50 states unemployment department claims being paid because that would make sense, but no, they use the phone to call and then extrapolate the rate from the data they collect. 

Funny though, I started paying in to the government on my ss account in January 1976 and in those 431 months nobody ever called me to ask if I was working or not, and even more odd is that I do not know anyone that has ever been called, have any of you ever been called?  Seriously, there are hundreds or thousands of you that will read this, it would be interesting to know if any of you was ever contacted for this household survey. 

ADD:  From Wiki...

The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed persons by the size of the workforce. An unemployed person is defined as a person not employed but actively seeking work. The size of the workforce is defined as those employed plus those unemployed.

So there is more than one way the rate can drop, there being variables to the variables.  This months print would seem to point to a pretty large drop in the size of the labor force because it sure has not come from a whole lot of people getting jobs.  Also, both the Monster index and new UI claims were weaker, new claims getting above 400k again.  As I said last week and the week before, what kind of sick bastard waits till Thanksgiving week to lay people off?  New claims always go down in the weeks before T-day, in part because there is a two week waiting period for filing then two more weeks till you get your first check, unless they changed that, I have not collected since the 80's.  After Xmas is when to pay attention to new claims numbers and not the seasonally adjusted either.

Iam_Silverman's picture

"and even more odd is that I do not know anyone that has ever been called, have any of you ever been called? "

Hmmmm, you may be on to something here!  Could it be the unemployment rate among banksters and politicians is only 8.6%?

Imminent Crucible's picture

"A lot of people must have dropped off the radar"

315,000 is the number. Booted from the workforce for failure to find a job before their benefits ran out.

Lowest Common Denominator's picture

BZZZZT!  Twain himself cited Disraeli as his source for that quote...and was probably wrong.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Not only are the Martians buying our debt, they are also abducting our unemployed.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

human multilations are a crime and against intergalactic law.

Totentänzerlied's picture

If Krugman gets fired will they abduct him? Please say yes.

scatterbrains's picture

Is this drop off because people are fleeing the country ?

SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

hey if we all drop out of the labor force, unemployment will be 0!

EscapeKey's picture

Even if you flee, if you're an american citizen, you have to pay US income taxes.

if you live abroad for 10 years, and then return to the United States, the IRS may question your failure to file returns for those ten years and later  can make assessments based on their best estimate of your income.

How's that freedom working out for you?