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NFP Prints At 120K, Below Expectations Of 125K, Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.6%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

NFP Prints At 120K, Below Expectations Of 125K, Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.6% on Expectations of 9.0%. And for those wondering how it is possible to have such a major drop in the unemployment rate, here it is: Labor Force Participation down from 64.2% to 64.0% as ever more people leave the work force once again.

From the Report:

In November, the unemployment rate declined by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent. From April through October, the rate held in a narrow range from 9.0 to 9.2 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 13.3 million, was down by 594,000 in November. The labor force, which is the sum of the unemployed and employed, was down by a little more than half that amount. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men fell by 0.5 percentage point to 8.3 percent in November. The jobless rate for whites (7.6 percent) also declined, while the rates for adult women (7.8 percent), teenagers (23.7 percent), blacks (15.5 percent), and Hispanics (11.4 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In November, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs declined by 432,000 to 7.6 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.7 million and accounted for 43.0 percent of the unemployed. (See tables A-11 and A-12.)

The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 64.0 percent. The employment-population ratio, at 58.5 percent, changed little. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) dropped by 378,000 over the month to 8.5 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)

In November, 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about the same as a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in November, a decrease of 186,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work in  the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

 

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Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:36 | 1937935 silver500
silver500's picture

This game is getting more and more stupid...

Non farm payrolls degenerating into a complete farce

 

http://whereisourgold.co.uk/

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:38 | 1937981 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

And what did you expect?

We will be back at full employment by June next year.  Of course it will be based on 1984 labor participation but quit with the details already.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:40 | 1937997 silver500
silver500's picture

Yes probably or maybe Gerald Celente's prediction of a financial collapse by Q1 2012 will come true.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:47 | 1938028 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

The real reason the unemployment dropped:

With the recent rally, there is a good chance of raising animal spirits. Why not just kick everyone off the radar and peg the unemployment at 3% you say? Well, it has to be believable to the average American idiot. Plus, it saves some ammunition for the future.

I put absolutely 0 faith in government statistics.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:48 | 1938044 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I put absolutely 0 faith in government statistics.

BLS find that this is better than expected.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:49 | 1938049 French Frog
French Frog's picture

there is a potentially bearish-developing head & shoulder on the nfp chart; anyone else see it?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:50 | 1938060 Irish66
Irish66's picture

sell the news

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 15:36 | 1939508 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

[I feel obligated to post this tidbit of truth in case any noobs to Zero Hedge, having been fluffed & brain-watered by the Main Steam Media Proxy Mouthpieces of the Ministry of Goebbels, stop by and find an opportunity to take their virgin dose of the red pill]

Point A:          350,000 people left the work force (350k more 'discouraged workers' last month alone) and are no longer counted when tabulating employment/unemployment data.

 

Point B:         There was a net gain of 120,000 jobs in the U.S. economy last month, as 120,000 more employees were hired than were fired, based on today's NFP report from the BLS.

 

Point C:         The U.S. unemployment rate, based on today's NFP report from the BLS, dropped to 8.6% from 9.0% a month ago, which is the lowest level of 'official' unemployment since March of 2009.

 

Point D:        Can you spot the glaring bullshit above that could only be sold convincingly to only the most sheepliest of sheeple, bitchez? By the laws of mathematics, which the BLS can't veto, no matter how hard the CONfidence tag-team trio of The Bernank, BLS & Geithner try, it looks to me as if a rational methodology for tabulating employment/unemployment would have shown A NEGATIVE JOB PRINT & A HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENTAGE, all things being equal.

 

We've not only arrived at Orwell's 1984 moment (consider also the new Defense Bill passed overwhelmingly by the Senate this week, which allows for the indefinite detainment and imprisonment of American Citizens plucked from U.S. soil, without any charges ever having to be filed let alone due process of a trivial trial [/sarc/] having to occur), Orwell, if he were to rise from the grave and visit his nation today, would utter W-T-F, before voluntarily crawling back into his grave. 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:01 | 1938111 OCTOPVS
OCTOPVS's picture

or we could do a retracement to -400,000.  :)

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:54 | 1938069 Doomsday Profit
Doomsday Profit's picture

There is a simple human concept at work:

When EVERYONE in business is incentivized to lie

And EVERYONE in authority is incentivized for EVERYONE in business to lie

EVERYONE in business AND government lies! 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:08 | 1938140 Doomsday Profit
Doomsday Profit's picture

What?.....you got to be a shill to get a reply around here???

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:53 | 1938345 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"What?.....you got to be a shill to get a reply around here???"

Nope, but Mr. Obvious type statements are a dime a dozen.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:04 | 1938409 swissbene
swissbene's picture

until the lie becomes the truth ... remember to always think twice

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi_XLOBDo_Y

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:04 | 1938122 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

If the Obama administration says this, it MUST be true. He didn't lie about wanting to redistribute the wealth, did he? He didn't lie about being willing to invade Pakistan (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=3434573&page=1#.TtjaYPLNlek), did he? Why do so many distrust him now?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:10 | 1938440 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Why do so many distrust him now?"

Because of his unspoken agenda?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:06 | 1938131 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

With the two prior months revised upward by 70,000 one has to wonder if they could not count then or if they can't count now.

But this is really a serious problem, it means there is a small army of citizens out there who are not only unemployed but who now have no benefits of any kind. 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:04 | 1938127 chubbar
chubbar's picture

OT, but as good a place to post this as anywhere. Recall the Missouri Information Analysis Center report (which is one of 58 "fusion" centers that the DHS uses to assess threats) that somehow was sent to the Missouri State police as an action memo? It outlined several factors and thought processes that were supposedly indicative of what a "terrorist" or person of interest would do. Some of the more popular were displaying Ron Paul stickers, belonging to a milita, buying gold, etc. The theory espoused in that memo detailed several "conspiracy" themes, one of which was that these types of people believed that the gov't was subverting the constitution by constructing a "North American Union". The memo was written in such a manner as to invite ricidule and a sense of absurdity towards any individual thinking in this manner.

Todays news.

"OTTAWA—Armed U.S. police officers will for the first time be allowed to operate in Canada along with the RCMP as part of far-reaching changes in Canadian-American border operations to be unveiled next week by Prime Minister Stephen Harper and President Barack Obama.

The joint action plan to be announced at the White House will also break new ground by introducing exit-entry records that will track the movements of everyone who leaves the United States or Canada, with the information available to authorities in both countries.

In the months and years ahead, the deal between Ottawa and Washington will reshape security, travel and commercial arrangements at the border in a variety of profound ways — some of which have already raised alarms among Canadians.

The agreement, which has been the subject of confidential negotiations since last winter, is intended to reverse the economically damaging border tie-ups that have been growing since Sept. 11, 2001, while upgrading anti-crime and anti-terrorist security for both countries.

In contrast to the silence from Canadian negotiators, some U.S. officials have been open about what the new reality at the border will look like in the years ahead.

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder revealed last fall that the deal will authorize Canada and the U.S. to designate officers who can take part in police investigations on both sides of the border. The pilot project, Holder said, will improve the two countries’ ability to deal with the “unprecedented” threats along the border from terrorists, human smugglers, illegal firearms traffickers and drug dealers."

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1094483--border-deal-fuels-concerns-in-canada

The Missouri Police report, in case you haven't read it.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/13290698/The-Modern-Militia-MovementMissouri-MIAC-Strategic-Report-20Feb09-

The excerpt I'm referring to is on page 4 (can't copy/paste from this format).

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:09 | 1938145 chubbar
chubbar's picture

Added comment, Do you think the southern border or northern border of the US deserves the most attention with regard to "terrorists, human smugglers, illegal firearms and drug dealers"? (please reference operation fast and furious, beheadings at the mexican border, U.S. land now off limits to US citizens because of drug gang activity, border agent shootings, etc).

Our gov't, that is to say the people who are making these decisions, are fucked up beyond all imagination AND/OR there is something else going on beyond what is being conveyed to us.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:20 | 1938202 Confused
Confused's picture

Southern border is a non-issue. How else would the government allow drugs INTO the country, sell weapons to drug dealers, and then create agencies (from which they reap huge benefits) that they populate with friends and family?

 

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:37 | 1939372 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

The really scary part is that they have friends or family.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:13 | 1938452 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Do you think the southern border or northern border of the US deserves the most attention with regard to "terrorists, human smugglers, illegal firearms and drug dealers"? "

Hands down - the Northern Border needs far more attention!  It really worries me the way they allow those danged Canadians to cross freely, carrying sackloads of currency that is equal to ours!  Sacrilege!  Why won't they respect the nature of our World Reserve Currency FRN's?

 

/sarc

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:22 | 1938218 trav7777
trav7777's picture

"unprecedented"???  What the fuck is that stupid monkey talking about?

There's nothing whatsoever unprecedented or exceptional about ANY of it.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:06 | 1938134 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Love the 1984 touch

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:12 | 1938162 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Love the 1984 touch

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:38 | 1937986 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Where are my 4 sigmas? I want my four standard deviations right now!!!!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:40 | 1937999 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

4 std in the rate dropping.  Probably actually a million standard deviations as noone was off 9.0

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:58 | 1938102 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I think we should be measuring standard deviants.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:14 | 1938173 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Before the release there were articles that gave the NFP forcasts as ranging as high as above 200K. I can't find anyone but Tyler who went above 200K. Even if his sarcasm was missed the article was read and and number in that range would have brought ridicule to the BLS. I declare that Tyler single-handedly shamed them into a brief period of honesty. Yeah!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:41 | 1938006 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

"U.S. stock futures hold gains after jobs data"

Right, so we rally on expectations, and when they miss, the rally keeps going.

Yes, that makes total sense.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:57 | 1938053 docj
docj's picture

Yep, a sub-population growth jobs number print (which will almost certainly be downward-revised going forward) is bullish. Because everyting is bullish - that's how the HAL9000's in the GS basement are programed and since that's all who's left in "the market" that's just how it is.

I'm trying to just embrace the "is-ness" of things and behave accordingly.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:11 | 1938152 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

We rally through december as bonuses must be paid, after that the world must either accept that the growth model is long dead and deal with all the insolvent nations, or print to infinity, there simply are no other options as most will continue to deleverage.  I guess WWIII is always an option as it would benefit TPTB.  Have a good holiday, moght be time to reconnect with those family members who are particularly good at working with their hands and actually know how to make things that are essential for your survival.  No harm in making a free hedge.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:44 | 1938017 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

8.6%??  So who needs QE3 at this point?   

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:13 | 1938168 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

As sick as it sounds, the answer to your question is that QE3 will be required to simply pay the interest on the (mostly fraudulent) debt.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:46 | 1938036 CPL
CPL's picture

8.6%

 

I wonder if they are counting the dead.  Completely serious here.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:53 | 1938078 docj
docj's picture

Heh - yeah. John Williams and SGS to rip that to shreds in 5... 4... 3...

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:31 | 1937937 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Damn, a lot of people must have dropped off the radar.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:37 | 1937952 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

Yeah, NO way with these prints it would drop that low. Wake up America! Your goverment at work trying to screw the little man.

EDIT:

I guess the govt. is giving out red beans this morning lol

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:41 | 1938000 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Benjamin Disraeli was right. This is utter fucking bullshit. 8.6%...let's pull that out of our ass and see if it sticks with the MSM. Well, whaddya know? They bought it. Maybe we can get Obama reelected by making all this shit up.

(For those taking the red pills, Disraeli said, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.")

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:04 | 1938126 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

"There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

That quote is originally from Mark Twain.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:30 | 1938201 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

You should not forget that the unemployment RATE is calculated from a completely seperate household survey they get by telephone and is not even remotely related to other employment data.  Of course once upon a time I thought they just added up all the 50 states unemployment department claims being paid because that would make sense, but no, they use the phone to call and then extrapolate the rate from the data they collect. 

Funny though, I started paying in to the government on my ss account in January 1976 and in those 431 months nobody ever called me to ask if I was working or not, and even more odd is that I do not know anyone that has ever been called, have any of you ever been called?  Seriously, there are hundreds or thousands of you that will read this, it would be interesting to know if any of you was ever contacted for this household survey. 

ADD:  From Wiki...

The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed persons by the size of the workforce. An unemployed person is defined as a person not employed but actively seeking work. The size of the workforce is defined as those employed plus those unemployed.

So there is more than one way the rate can drop, there being variables to the variables.  This months print would seem to point to a pretty large drop in the size of the labor force because it sure has not come from a whole lot of people getting jobs.  Also, both the Monster index and new UI claims were weaker, new claims getting above 400k again.  As I said last week and the week before, what kind of sick bastard waits till Thanksgiving week to lay people off?  New claims always go down in the weeks before T-day, in part because there is a two week waiting period for filing then two more weeks till you get your first check, unless they changed that, I have not collected since the 80's.  After Xmas is when to pay attention to new claims numbers and not the seasonally adjusted either.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:17 | 1938471 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"and even more odd is that I do not know anyone that has ever been called, have any of you ever been called? "

Hmmmm, you may be on to something here!  Could it be the unemployment rate among banksters and politicians is only 8.6%?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:24 | 1938230 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

"A lot of people must have dropped off the radar"

315,000 is the number. Booted from the workforce for failure to find a job before their benefits ran out.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:31 | 1938263 Lowest Common D...
Lowest Common Denominator's picture

BZZZZT!  Twain himself cited Disraeli as his source for that quote...and was probably wrong.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:34 | 1937956 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Not only are the Martians buying our debt, they are also abducting our unemployed.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:40 | 1937993 PivotalTrades
PivotalTrades's picture

Funniest thing said in weeks

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:56 | 1938094 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

human multilations are a crime and against intergalactic law.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:42 | 1939388 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

If Krugman gets fired will they abduct him? Please say yes.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:36 | 1937973 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Is this drop off because people are fleeing the country ?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:43 | 1938016 SheepleLOVEched...
SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

hey if we all drop out of the labor force, unemployment will be 0!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:43 | 1938021 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Even if you flee, if you're an american citizen, you have to pay US income taxes.

http://www.taxmeless.com/page4.html

if you live abroad for 10 years, and then return to the United States, the IRS may question your failure to file returns for those ten years and later  can make assessments based on their best estimate of your income.

How's that freedom working out for you?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:55 | 1938087 radarsentinel
radarsentinel's picture

If you live for 330 days or more in a foreign county within a twelve month period the first $91,500 is excluded from taxes.Not to say you don't have to pay taxes in the country you're residing in but those are counted as credits if you go above this amount.Not a CPA here but not a cherrypicker on the rules used in trying to make a point.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:29 | 1938253 Confused
Confused's picture

Under $91.5 you don't have to pay, but you still have to file in the US. Which keeps you on the radar.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:40 | 1937992 Capitalist10
Capitalist10's picture

Maybe the US has hired Greeks to do the labor stats.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:40 | 1937994 Esso
Esso's picture

Retiring at 23, bitchez!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:54 | 1938068 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

LOL

It's very true.  99 weeks ago is still part of the window when mass layoffs/stocks crashing first occured.

Plus, the jobs that people ARE getting: they don't pay shit.  They no where keep up with the 10-15% of money growth that occurs each year.  They no where keep up with inflation.  And most benefits are shitty.  I mean, if a bunch of young people who are motivated to get a job with a college degree in engineering, science, or business are just getting jobs as retail salespeople, temps, or waitstaff/barkeeps, is this REALLY a good sign?  Or those young people getting a full time job, for most the pay range is from $22-$35K, with pay raises less than PMI, and for most, NONE at all year to year (like me).  But the CEO, board, and senior managers get raises and stock options and the grunts get shit.  THis is NOT a long term model for stability.

There is NO way you can pay off a debt, with interest, with that in a reasonable amount of time.  Never mind save for retirement, have a child, buy a house.  And most of the states that have the jobs, also have a higher cost of living (Boston, NYC, SF, etc).  So people are moving to the city, where it is expensive to live, to get a job that barely helps them to scrape by.  And those in the lower cost of living states?  Those jobs get exported overseas or to the states with the bigger cites.  This isn't growth; this is moving the chess pieces around, but still 2 moves away from being checkmate'd.

This number is lies, lies, lies.  The REAL number to look at is the U6, which counts those OFF the rolls, and those UNDEREMPLOYED.  It is down from 17% to 16.1% this year, which reflects the true growth of the jobs market - kicking, but barely. 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:10 | 1938149 fuu
fuu's picture
99 weeks ago today was  01/08/2010

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:35 | 1938550 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

Let's see, one week is seven days and then you multiply that by uhhmm..  Or do I add?  Divide?

 

"Math is HARD, lets go shopping!"

 

Why do you always try to derail such emotional arguments with cold, hard reasoning?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 16:55 | 1939863 fuu
fuu's picture

I'm flawed that way.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:21 | 1938213 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Is there anything domestically that the national government touched and improved? We've all heard the line "I'm from the government and I'm here to help you." The Feds get involved in welfare and the rules destroy families. The Feds get involved in funding higher education and the cost of college skyrockets. The Feds get involved in funding healthcare (Medicare, Medicaid) and the cost of healthcare skyrockets. Is there anything the Feds touched that hasn't skyrocketed, except the value of the dollar?

Government policies have led to the problems Shizzmoney mentioned. Retirement is made more difficult when one can't get a decent rate of return on savings in a bank - blame the Federal Reserve. Many responsible young adults don't marry and have children. Is it because they are too busy paying off student debt? Who would want to get married and suddenly be on the hook for a spouse's $40K in student debt. Yet the irresponsible continue to reproduce (http://nation.foxnews.com/homelessness/2011/12/01/homeless-lady-15-kids-...) and expect the responsible taxpayers to pick up the tab. Carrying the thought even farther, is the government-induced political correctness responsible for the complaints that Siri (the new iPhone thing) wasn't identifying abortion clinics?

We need a huge reset in this country to stop the lies, stop the distortions, stop the decay in so many aspects of our society and government.

That's why 'those who know what's best for us' are so adamant that we believe them; they don't want to lose their jobs.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:05 | 1938411 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

You forgot Feds + public education.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:55 | 1939420 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

A reset implies that nothing is changed: the clock is turned back to 0 and the process begins anew. You buy a few years, decades, or maybe even centuries, then we're back at this sad position calling for another reset.

Until and unless the people change, the system will not change because it is a product, a dynamic, of the people in it. No amount of resets will alter this. It has not changed noticeably in 5000 years despite an astronimical amount of resets at every level. A reset is kicking the can so hard it circumnavigates the globe, lands precisely where it was before you started kicking, and your proceed to begin kicking again.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 12:07 | 1938687 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

I went to look up the actual data for what it is worth and BLS reports that 487,000 people dropped out of the labor force for the month.  At that rate there will be no labor pool at all in 25 years. 

Also, notice the number of people unemployed for the month dropped by 594,000.  But payrolls only increased by 120k.  If just under 600,000 ceased to be (counted as) unemployed and payrolss added 120k workers then the rest must have found another way to survive other than work or UI checks.  474,000 more street corners needed in November so people can sit there with signs saying PLEASE anything helps... God Bless. 

And another major part of the statistical release I have seen zero comments on at all yet today is that hourly pay dropped.  Not by much but as we all know prices are rising beyond what the government CPI BS would have us think, pay needs to rise just to keep up and instead it drops.  This means of those that do get unemployed then find work they are taking cuts to pay.  Probably cuts to benefits as well. 

Look at the spreadsheet below and scroll right and down to the last two lines, they show the "not in labor force" number, subtract November from October then if you do have a boss go kiss his/her ass and offer real love because you do not want to be part of that number. 

 

http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea01.htm

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:32 | 1937938 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Again we post semi great numbers.. Everyone wants the economy to recover but really, just look around for a minute.
Also how many of theses are due to people leaving the job market / seasonal jobs?

-

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

`

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:45 | 1937970 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

great numbers?  you need 120K NFP/month just to keep up with population growth.  The trend indicates deep structural unemployment.  You have the middle age saddled with housing debt.  young adults saddled with student loan debt.  There's not any demographic group left to take up conspicuous consumption, and more credit, which doesn't bode well for an American economy that is 67% consumer-oriented.

 

Unemployment rate continues to go down (likely from low participation), but food stamp recipients continue to rise.  there seems to be a disconnect.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:01 | 1938113 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

I don't see a disconnect.  People drop out of the labor force and plop onto food stamps.  With the requirement that aggregate debt grows, the burden has shifted from private debt to public debt.  It's a little bit like 3-card monte, or perhaps more like rearrangind deck chairs on the titanic.  Our deflationary depression is still coming.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:39 | 1937988 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Dont forget that this was the worst seasonal hiring year ever so there are fewer people leaving those roles.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 12:31 | 1938846 Silverdes
Silverdes's picture

I can't believe I had to read this far down to find someone calling out the seasonal jobs. It's the first thing I thought of; "Ok...so how many of these are either seasonal retail or season service industry?" Turns out, that number is more than half.

How can you believe ANY statistics that come from our government?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:34 | 1937940 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

8.6%? This is getting ridiculous.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:44 | 1938026 Spooky Polish
Spooky Polish's picture

sorry to make you feel better but ...

 

We have about 30% unemployment (buffored by 2 mln working in west europe) , and 20% inflation 

 

and ...Unemployment : 9,1% , inflation : 4,1 %

 

how about this 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:32 | 1937941 SheepleLOVEched...
SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

pseudo green shoots............

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:32 | 1937942 jdelano
jdelano's picture

HAHAHAHAHA.  COME ON.  THIS HAS GOTTEN FUCKING RIDICULOUS NOW.  IT'S NOT COUNTRY, IT'S A CLOWN RODEO.  

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:33 | 1937950 Oztralian
Oztralian's picture

somebody call the waaaaaaammbulance!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:37 | 1937976 jdelano
jdelano's picture

LOL--really?  you like the fact that you're living in a decayed orwellian world where reality is being manufactured for you daily?  I'm pretty sure out of the two of us, I'm not the pussy....  go back to your veal pen, ozzie douche...

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:43 | 1938020 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Yes, I'm going to complete the process and buy me a GoLite. That way I can look at a manufactured blue light instead of needing to go outside for a blue sky.  I guess I was mistaken when I thought the 3 people in front of me in the supermarket were all paying with EBT welfare cards, the economy's actually doing great.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:55 | 1938092 Oztralian
Oztralian's picture

Sorry, McFly...while I may not like the "data" being spewed, it is the data that gets reported. Until the market wakes up and realizes just how ugly the true fundamentals are, I might as well sit tight and chip away in defensives and short term plays rather than having an aneurysm when the market rallies.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:01 | 1938110 jdelano
jdelano's picture

a few caps = aneurysm?  I don't give a shit about the rally, I'm done for the year with a few dying bets left on the table.  I'm INFURIATED AND DISGUSTED by the real time collapse of the country I was born and raised in unfolding right before my eyes as those in power do their best to accelerate the decay rather than address the problems.  I am a real American, dammit, and we're all being castrated by these maniacal fuckheads.  

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:07 | 1938138 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

there is no problem to address (at least if you mean to imply that there is a solution for said "problem").  The system is behaving exactly as the system was designed to behave and there is no solution, simply different timelines for collapse.  Personally, I would be in favor of honesty over what we have today, but do recognize that honestly will only hasten the collapse.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:31 | 1938264 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

And since collapse is inevitable at this point, let's get it over with.

We can't get to a stable, honest economy and real recovery without going through the collapse phase. We also need the pain of collapse to drive enough public fury to hang the banksters and fire all of the govt looters.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:08 | 1938430 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

You're talkn' 'bout a revolution, you got a permit for that? Did the General Assembly approve the action?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:32 | 1937943 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Based on the aggregate of US data the last few months, i see no reason to believe one should be short the US market. 

Dont get me started on EU however.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:46 | 1938033 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

When Europe implodes and takes BAC , C , MS and all the other fuck ups with them , you can stick that aggregate data where the sun dont shine.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:05 | 1938125 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

When asked how he went bankrupt Hemingway replied: " Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

EZ is going bankrupt gradually... for now.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:32 | 1937944 Jason T
Jason T's picture

who needs a job when we got Food Stamps.  

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:35 | 1937959 grunk
grunk's picture

Maybe food stamp recipients are now counted as employed by the government.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:44 | 1938023 Esso
Esso's picture

Paycheck's a paycheck, right?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:35 | 1938277 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

There are plenty of jobs but they are in unglamorous fields like engineering that US kids no longer have an interest in.  Stupid math.

Food stamps to me seem to have transformed at some point from a backstop for the needy to a way to implement a permanent transfer of taxpayer money to corporations.  There are only a handful of companies that provide all our foodstuffs, if you're in their shoes and you now can create a class of people that are permanently accepting tax dollars and then immediately transferring those dollars to you in the form of foodstamp purchases of your items...winner.  

Fuck it, keep them down...keep them unemployed...and keep them taking millions of dollars in taxpayer money and hand delivering it to your doorstep. 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:32 | 1937946 vegas
vegas's picture

8.6 % not because jobs are there, but because the labor force is shrinking. BLS is a joke.

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 12:24 | 1938800 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Vegas, I just bookmarked your link after seeing the Klingon, I am still laughing.  Will NOT kill you for food, god Americans are funny people even in really hard times. 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:32 | 1937948 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Bullshit.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:33 | 1937951 augie
augie's picture

Everything is fine, keep shopping. 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:34 | 1937953 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Bears getting fisted again.

 

Another breakaway gap up.

All dips from here on out need to be bought with a vengeance.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:36 | 1937968 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

So, what have your trades been, ma'am?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:32 | 1938268 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

Red flag on the field... wtf

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:43 | 1937990 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Whatever comic relief ZH thinks you provide here has long worn thin.  ZH needs to drag itself into the current decade and install an ignore button.  My guess is that you will effectively disappear.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:09 | 1938437 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

It's not real, but +1 on an ignore button.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 14:15 | 1939301 smiler03
smiler03's picture

I think I agree but the problem with ignore is that when viewed as a thread you have disconnected comments. Does that make sense?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 16:52 | 1939857 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Good point +1

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:40 | 1937991 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

any gap up will be faded by 1pm. All rally's from here on out need to be sold with a vengeance.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:41 | 1938001 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Pity you only trade on paper, Robo-  you might have gapped up to down 50% for the year today.......

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:42 | 1938013 The Axe
The Axe's picture

all dips...thanks for the advice......

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:06 | 1938132 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Funny how Robo is never around when the stock market dumps like his stock picks.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:11 | 1938153 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Yes, we buy double down financials and selling gold stocks, then when when it turns down we do opposite. Fisting is just additional perk.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:12 | 1938155 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

The sad thing is robo is probably correct. It's been mostly true for at least as long as I've been a ZH addict. The bears spend most of our time starving while the bulls eat our young. It's complete bullshit and infuriates me. It is also true. The system is a rigged casino. Eventually it will implode. In the meantime though buying the fucking dips is statistically far more likely to reward than is shorting the sociopaths running this ponzi.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:44 | 1938605 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"The bears spend most of our time starving while the bulls eat our young."

Common sense should prevail here - remember, the person who stays out of the arena will not be gored by the bull.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 17:47 | 1938595 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Another breakaway gap up."

Wow, even LULU being puffed UP!

Too bad that NFLX can't grab on the tail of that rising star!  I surely hope that all of this "better than expected" Christmas Shopping doesn't weigh too heavily on the disposable income of the affluent, especially in after January when the credit card bills start piling in.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:34 | 1937955 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Ministry of Truth ...

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:34 | 1937957 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

unemployment is down!!!!  yeah right

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:35 | 1937958 Prepared
Prepared's picture

Complete and utter bullshit obfuscation!  Cheers to false greenshoots, right?  Can't wait to hear Obama brag about this crap...ugh!!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:35 | 1937962 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Why not just Fucking print 3.2% for a real rally.  Complete asshats!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:35 | 1937963 bruceb
bruceb's picture

So much for 4 sigma data releases.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:35 | 1937964 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

And just think all of the Holiday hiring has already taken place. Wait until the end of December / January when all of the temporary workers get laid off.

Negative NFP print in January. But this nonesense is going to go on for another year. The end of 2012 early 13 is when we sink or swin....

No worries, I will wait. I just keep acquiring money, food, ammo.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:38 | 1937985 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Nope, they left the workforce, should drive the rate down to 8%.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:35 | 1937965 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

Clearly this number is accurate, come on, due to many factors…….e.g.

 

-          The banksters need to make bonus

-          All of the temp hiring for the holidays

-          Its easy and fun to ramp the algo’s, they believe anything

-          The banksters need to make bonus

-          Channel stuffing jobs is as easy as cars, just ask GM and Ford

-          If all the other econ numbers get to have 4-6 sigma why cant we

-          The banksters need to make bonus

-          Its just good enough to keep QE on the table

 

Theres a lot more that I may have missed……………………………..did I mention the banksters?

 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:14 | 1938177 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Awesome work!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:32 | 1938267 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I think you forgot to mention the politicians who want to keep their jobs by showing how great a job they're doing.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:35 | 1937966 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

At least you guys can be happy that gold is being dragged up by the back of the neck by the rally in equities.

Why not cheer for higher stock prices if you own lots of gold?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:37 | 1937978 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

Excuse me, ma'am, could you please pass the NFLX, AMR and BAC?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:59 | 1938107 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And LULU?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:32 | 1938266 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

and RIMM.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:35 | 1938278 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

and paper GLD and SLV... wait too soon? 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:40 | 1938294 fuu
fuu's picture

and SBUX.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:47 | 1938315 BrocilyBeef
BrocilyBeef's picture

and GS, you little bitchez, bitchez.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:42 | 1938012 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

If gold is up more than 20%  over the S&P how is itg being dragged up by equities?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:36 | 1937969 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Bye bye crisis, collapse, meltdown, Armageddon, doomprophets; welcome new boom. Told you sooooo. Merry Christmas.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:41 | 1938004 jdelano
jdelano's picture

another dog poo post from LWA.  Think I'll just step right over it and go about my day....

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:41 | 1938007 Boba Fiat
Boba Fiat's picture

Absolutely hilarious.  Yep, all financial crises averted: government says so.  What a difference a day makes.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:42 | 1938014 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Merry Christmas to you as well.

 

                          [junk]

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:50 | 1938059 Esso
Esso's picture

When I junked the dork, it went from -5 to -7.

Junk leverage, bitchez!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:54 | 1938082 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Thanks. I will have a simple meal, read a book (W. Faulkner?), work on my pc and watch the whole Christmas circus on tv. "Urbi et orbi". Whatever. Have nice days.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:49 | 1938325 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

LWA will enjoy his catfood more because it is on a plate. The fact that the TV has been without power for weeks will not daunt him. He has the show in his head to keep him company.

This economy is in dire need a plenary indulgence, now go molest some children, anencephalic papist.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:52 | 1938336 fuu
fuu's picture

He is a federast.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:00 | 1938381 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Ad hominems are a sign of weakness.

US economy grows. Euro survives, dollar too. Merry Christmas. Boring world we live in.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:16 | 1938462 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

Boring troll you are, enjoy the cat food

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:16 | 1938463 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

There's always tomorrow, for dreams to come true. Tomorrow is not far away! 

http://youtu.be/TQvbJ-spKuU

Some Christmas chear for the Pollyannas!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 11:19 | 1938474 fuu
fuu's picture

Were I refuting a truth in your comment you would be correct. As your post contains no truth to refute it was not ad hominem, it was just an insult.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:45 | 1938031 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Yeah, the futures just went straight up on the numbers, eh?  Oh wait-  people who can actually think just started looking at them- oops..............

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:36 | 1937971 Hman
Hman's picture

One you see rounded numbers like 120K or 140K, then it's most probably a cooked number.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:36 | 1937972 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

8.6% ????

Now, THAT is some funny shit.  I don't care who you are!

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:36 | 1937974 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

At this rate in 22 months will have 0% unemployment and 80 mln food stamps recipients.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:37 | 1937975 The Axe
The Axe's picture

earnings down...thats good  right....lol

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:37 | 1937977 Ponziconomy
Ponziconomy's picture

Hey- I'll accept 8.6% as truth if one of the lost jobs includes our worthless leader.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:07 | 1938135 SMG
SMG's picture

You mean David Rockefeller?

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:15 | 1938184 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

No Lloyd Blankfein

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:38 | 1937979 pods
pods's picture

I knew this was going to be an eye opening number.  The local talk radio hosts on the drive in were pimping this number.  They could not care less about macro issues.

8.6%?

Why not just make it 6.8%?  Or 0.8%?

pods

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 10:42 | 1938288 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

The current administration can't allow the unemployment rate to drop too far too fast. If it went to 6.8% or 5% immediately, by Nov. 2012 voters would be asking "what have you done for us lately?" I look for a slow, steady reported decline going into the election. Who needs reality when we've got an elected messiah who wants to fundamentally restructure America? Apparently reality has already been fundamentally restructured into fantasy land.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:38 | 1937980 jesusonline
jesusonline's picture

More irrelevant economic data, more irrational exuberance.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:40 | 1937995 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

Haha what a joke the United States is.  they need to lie about every number just to keep up the Ponzi scheme.  8.6% unemployment my ass.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:41 | 1938002 razorthin
razorthin's picture

I feel sorry for those who aren't investment bankers or haven't learned how to trade; and for those not converting their fiat profits to metal.  There's really little hope otherwise.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:44 | 1938005 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

This. Is. Awesome.

Oil is getting so monkey hammered, it's not even funny.  Ben must be selling a lot of contracts to keep the price below $105. 

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 09:53 | 1938077 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Take little heed in the spot manipulation.  Like the PMs and the miners, you need to rely on OIH and ERX, which are screaming higher.

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