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NFP Prints At 120K, Below Expectations Of 125K, Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.6%
NFP Prints At 120K, Below Expectations Of 125K, Unemployment Rate Drops To 8.6% on Expectations of 9.0%. And for those wondering how it is possible to have such a major drop in the unemployment rate, here it is: Labor Force Participation down from 64.2% to 64.0% as ever more people leave the work force once again.
From the Report:
In November, the unemployment rate declined by 0.4 percentage point to 8.6 percent. From April through October, the rate held in a narrow range from 9.0 to 9.2 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 13.3 million, was down by 594,000 in November. The labor force, which is the sum of the unemployed and employed, was down by a little more than half that amount. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men fell by 0.5 percentage point to 8.3 percent in November. The jobless rate for whites (7.6 percent) also declined, while the rates for adult women (7.8 percent), teenagers (23.7 percent), blacks (15.5 percent), and Hispanics (11.4 percent) showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In November, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs declined by 432,000 to 7.6 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.7 million and accounted for 43.0 percent of the unemployed. (See tables A-11 and A-12.)
The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 64.0 percent. The employment-population ratio, at 58.5 percent, changed little. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) dropped by 378,000 over the month to 8.5 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
In November, 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about the same as a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in November, a decrease of 186,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
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So McDonalds, Walmart, Best Buy, and Macy's hired some workers for the holiday season. Our problems are solved! The recession is over! Hand Jobs all around on The Squawk.
So the hundred of us here see the details..what will the headlines be...8.6%....what will Obama spew...8.6%...only 120,000...the US needs 250,000 to pull out of the hole...period....UNLESS....another 10 million drop out of the work force...lol....watch food stamps.....will they go down with thie "good" news...NOT....so we will not have any unemployed soon...but half of the US will be on food stamps....now what do the politicans do...extend the unemployment benefits ...they should not because this is such great news...no need for it now...and payroll tax reduction..not any more..we are booming according to this...hahaha...they will pass both and then some...
go out and buy buy buy everything is fine. won't work. too many people see empty homes, closed businesses,friends and family jobless, schizo news and pols. MF global scandal. we know this is propaganda worthy of stalin.
or is greece solvent? EU solvent? banks solvent? AMR is not really going bk.
Just a reminder that economists have often wondered that if the US govt had lied about the economic statistics during the Great Depression to make things appear better than they were would the Depression have lasted as long?
Now we get to see it play out before our eyes. The Great Big Lie experiment.
stateside
Russia did it for years and years until the "fixed prices" became irrelevant because the commodities or product of interest was simply not available. The same will happen to Amerika with the notable difference that the average American is considerably better armed and much less afraid of the government than the Russian people were during their collapse.
There are other notable differences. In comparison to their CCCP counterparts, Americans are way better off, way more distracted, and way more disconnected with the realities of life. Americans clearly don't fear their government, as they do nothing while their civil liberties are stripped away one by one, but they do love it. At least they love the half of it that represents their "team." I don't think an American collapse would look much like the Soviet collapse.
This has been seen clearly by many. We rally into the new year then the world either prints to infinity or we all have a real conversation about the fact that the world is broke (insolvent), the real growth model is dead, and the vast majority of the (mostly fraudulent) debt can never be repaid. I guess WWIII is another option that would benefit TPTB, so that is another option.
Enjoy the holidays. Might be a good time to re-establish ties to family members who have been shuned for their lack of financial savy in the past but whom are better known for their ability to grow crops or butcher an animal. Just saying, it never hurts to put on a hedge that doesn't cost anything.
So whats the U6 number now?
buy on the lies sell on the whispers
“Suspicion often father of truth.”
Charlie Chan at the Race Track (1936
Unemployment below 9% and a dow above 12K spells fo mo fo O.
and all those people who had a 5k sq ft McMansion, a $100k+ job, a boat, a Mercedes, and a $500k+ investment portfolio the last time the DOW hit a record are going to believe it this time while they are making minimum wage at Home Depot and living in a 500 sq ft apartment they need gov ernment assistance to afford?
Those guys are like 25 year old Disney kids. It's time for the next crop. Every year I see many a wide-eyed bankster pledgies with new jobs in the FiDi and that are ready to BTFD with grandma's pension as long as an adult in a lab coat says it's ok. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Front seldom tell truth. To know occupants of house, always look in backyard.”
Charlie Chan in London (1934)
Headline:
Unemployment Rate Drops to 8.6%
In a related story:
PIIGS FLY
Maybe the unemploment rate dropped due to an increase in assasinations?. Possibly the US is practising some foreign policy at home in order to bring down the unemployment number?.
You cannot be unemployed if you don't exist.
http://www.infowars.com/occupied-america-senate-bill-1867-would-allow-u-s-military-to-detain-and-murder-anti-government-protesters-in-american-cities/
I believe this number....
NOT !
How much more of these goverment lies must we deal with? This fucking con game is nothing more than goverment manipulation to help the Mulsim get relected. The magic number is 8%, expect it soon because this whole shithole is in collusion to mislead the public while we are on a collsion course to the end of America.
The higher we go the better my short entry.
Wow ! We have trully become a pathetic country. And no major public figure will call bullshit. Simply amazing to me.
obviously, lotsa people found jobs on farms...
porcine cosmetologists can call their own shots, these daze...
guffaw!
pure fodder for CNBC and immelts getting americans back to work by sending thousands of jobs to china..no really transfering jobs overseas means more jobs here..and" all animals are created equally" Orwell.
While real unemployment is approaching 20%. Rally on suckers.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
All the noise is drowning out the news!! Ahh!
Okay, here are the not-seasonally adjusted numbers that matter from this report.
U-3 fell to 8.2%, by far the lowest in over three years. The participation rate dropped to 63.9%, matching the record low for this series, matched three prior times this year.
A grand total of 576,000 people were welcomed into the ranks of the "Not in Labor Force", which swells to another record of 86.757 million.
The number of employed only rose by 83,000, as the unemployed fell almost 500,000 to 12.613 million.
Oh, and the civilian labor force - which should grow month-to-month - declined by about 400,000, and is now below the November 2010 level.
Clearly, the trend has been set: The official unemployment rate is quickly falling, but the number of people in our population who are retiring or simply giving up is rising just as dramatically, if not more.
We could be well below 8.0% in "official" unemployment by next November, but that would be outweighed by the reality of nearly 90 million people doing nothing.
Then again, since when has real reality mattered in this fascist little hellhole we call "Amerikkka"?
Below 8.0% - just in time to get Obama elected!
In my view The President has made an error in judgement by slimeing up (ie. to make something slimey) these numbers so early in the campaign. The 4 sigma dodges that we have seen this week will be long forgotten, and perhaps even exposed by the time next November roles around.
He didn't wait to fire until he saw the whites of their eyes.
The truth of the matter is that unemployment is much higher than what the headline will say today.To be fair this unemployment number has been messed with since the Clinton years now to the point that it does not recognize people that have given up or are under employed as if they don't matter. Make no mistake the real economy is slowing down and no amount of hopium stats from this administration is going to change the outcome. Prepare accordingly because the unemployed and underemployed at these levels do matter and will come to bite back in the form of much higher taxes and/or lower standards of living. No way is this sustainable.
2.6 million people were marginaly attached to the workforce but not counted as unemployed because they did not look for work 4 weeks prior to the survey. THERE IS YOUR BULLSHIT 8.6# RIGHT THERE.
Bullshit all right.
I guess dumb asses think the best way to get a job is not to look for one.
Some kinda Zen thing I suppose.
Here is INTERESTING data from the BLS as compiled from the "Civilian noninstitutional population":
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
Note: This is seasonally adjusted data:
Number of workers not in labor force in October of 2011 = 86,071,000 (rounded)
Number of workers not in labor force in November of 2011 = 86,558,000 (rounded)
That is an INCREASE of 487,000 workers that are no longer counted among the labor force.
The 8.6% number is a canard.
At least, with these lofty numbers, the US is now eligible to join the eurozone.....sic
I don't normally like the CNBC douchebags but I think their might be some validity to one comment they just made: All the most recent Non Farm Payroll numbers have been getting revised upward dramatically (remember the month that printed ZERO? What s that now?), but the Unemployment numbers do NOT get revised. So that means that the 9% number we've been looking at for the past few months could possibly also have been revised, as in to 8.9%, then 8.8%...so today's "sudden" move down to 8.6% wouldn't seem so fishy if the previous string had been revised as the NFP was. Different surveys, different methodology, I know...but it seems curious that one series recognises new data, or late data, and goes back to revise it's original number whereas the other survey doesn't.
Have another glass of Kool aid will you? Take a look at the numbers. They don't lie, people do. 2.6 million people weren't counted. That's all you need to know. Think for yourself.
I do think some couples have reached the point where they say to hell with expensive cars, eating out all the time, and expensive vacations.
Others have realized how easy it is to get disability. Get a lawyer, dont work for three years, and eventually every one who perserveres gets a check from the government.
They are now permanently downscaling their lifestyle and living on one income. I dont believe we will hit the high historic rates of labor participation in the next twenty years if ever.
Too many people saying fuck it.
No that is the plan to get everyone dependent on the government and it is working great. Soon you will see that millions of people will start to believe there is no hope of ever getting a job and can be manipulated like many seniors. The journey to the dark side will be complete. Even worse candidates tan Obama will appear because all they will have to say is that their opponent will take away benefit checks and the opposing canddate wll be destroyed. The game is over and freedom has lost.
sorry....should be "but I think there might be"....hate that there/their mistake...
The increase in private sector jobs was primarily due to the extraoridnarily high demand for HAZMAT workers cleaning up in the wake of the Occuy Whatever protests and for increased demand for police at Wal Marts and Best Buys in urban areas.
So, Tyler, do you have an estimate as to how many troops are heading back to the states? Will that dent the NFP numbers or do they need the soldiers training for the next war?
From the notes at the bottom of the rport.
Effective with the release of The Employment Situation for January 2012, scheduled for February 3, 2012, population controls that reflect the results of Census 2010 will be used in the monthly household survey estimation process. Historical data will not be revised to incorporate the new controls; consequently, household survey data for January 2012 will not be directly comparable with that for December 2011 or earlier periods.This happens yearly. The January report released in February will revise many, if not all, of the monthly report from the previous year.
You missed the key point. It's not about revisions to data, it's about changing the methodology. Huge difference.
January 2012 will not be directly comparable with that for December 2011 or earlier periods.
I did miss that point. Sorry.
if everyone would just stop looking for work, we could get this thing under 4% by April Fools Day
the economy is just so much better somewhere else in the USA, is what everyone is thinking- california must be booming says the guy in NY, the guy in cali is saying NY must be booming ..this report will shake the pros as it shows something very bad is near or is being hidden. this is desperation writ large.
The trend at ZH seems to be that if the stats favor gold rising they are true; if the stats favor any form of positive economic news for the overall economy they are false.
Unemployment is down people! That's a good thing. I hate to burst your (gold) bubble.
Yes, the U-3 official rate of unemployment is down.
But the number of people not in the labor force has risen by over 1.6 million people in the past year while the civilian labor force is now below last November's level.
In that same time, only 600,000 people have actually been added to the ranks of the employed.
All of those things are bad things. I hate to burst your bull (shit) bubble.
And you reached that conclusion in your 22 official days of participation? Thanks for using your 3rd post ever to share that info with us. Thankfully your bias shows in your historic postings.
"Gold has value only as jewllery. That value is probably under $1000 according to real demand."
"The gold safety trade is dead. Technology killed it. "
I've got to wonder did any of the haters posting today even bother to do so much look at the the official and/or U-6 number?
they didn't budge, no decrease, no decline both numbers are the same as they were yesterday when unemployment was 9%...they only thing that went down, as Tyler pointed out, was the LFP number.
leaving one to wonder how does the unemployment rate drop without of corresponding decrease in those numbers as well? also, if this was legit one would expect to see SNAP participation drop as as people become self sufficient again, but that's not happening either, in fact enrollment isn't even slowing down and will hit 47 and 1/2 million by Christmas. but I suppose the haters will simply pass that off as 47 million people who are lazy and just want to get on by gaming the system, cause it's always easier and safer to blame than to think.
these numbers are bullshit, just like last year when unemployment dropped to 8.8% and the mindless drones were out saying the exact same things they are now, then spring hit and the green shoots withered like grapes left on the vine. unemployment went back up and SNAP enrollment continued to pick up steam.
sad to see so many still buy into this game, this blatant manipulation year after year as it should be painfully obvious by now that this system is not salvageable, debt being it's systemic cancer that is spreading aggressively, consuming and destroying everything in it's path. whatever small gains are made, debt is growing exponentially faster making real, sustainable growth impossible. there can be no recovery in an economy this saturated with debt and liability worldwide. the only thing DC can do now is try to preserve the illusion that things aren't really that bad, so they feed the people's normalcy bias with manipulated statistics and perception managed economic reports.
hence the numbers we have seen the last few days, and also why people with critical thinking skills and basic common sense raise their eyebrows and are thinking "wait a minute, this doesn't add up, doesn't make sense".
believe the bullshit at your own peril, we tried to warn you.
How much is just the Christmas season effect?
"It's Beginning to Look A Lot Like Christmas ..." Unemployment Falls to 8.6%, Labor Force Participation Falls to 64% - Greece Today's Winner of the "Bailout Bowl"
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
It's the "most wonderful" time of the year when you, dear citizen, are allowed to take shitty temp work
in a futile attempt to mask the shame of not being able to afford presents for Tiny Tim.
As willing workers fall off the unemployment rolls and into the nearest tent city, the PTB write them off the books and lower unemployment rate. What a farce!
What a F'ing joke...no jobs, no prospects, thus those people don't count, therefore the Zero administration has decreased unemployment. What a f'ing joke.
Say what you will about Pharaoh, but he's really turning this country around. FOUR MORE YEARS! FOUR MORE YEARS!
6 hour work day seems like a good way to solve this.
obviously there is not enough work for everybody, and this has to do with demographics, technology (mechanization, automatization). Lost jobs are not coming back and adjusting our schedules is easy to implement.
just do a search and replace in all legislation where 8 hour work day is mentioned - replace it with 6.
in germany they have this thing called work sharing - workers get a small cut in pay and work less hours, but overall everyone is happyer. money from the unemployment benefits program is applied towards work sharing so for something like a 20% decrease in hours worked workers take only 10% decrease in pay.
instead of runing 8 hour shifts companies can go to 2 x 6 hour shifts.
Another way to put this into perspective, there are 3,141 counties (or county equivalents) in the USA. 120,000 increase in NFP comes to a grand total of 38 jobs per county.
That is great if you live in Sully County SD population 1,391, but it kind of sucks if you live anywhere else.
REPUDIATE YOUR DEBT.
The momentum grows: DEBTORS REVOLT – intentional *default-en-masse* to hasten the collapse of the predatory lending system and the plutocracy into which our country has morphed.
Join us. Simply refuse to play their game, and repudiate your debts – just walk away. The system, as it has transformed over the past 15 years, is simply rigged against you and offers you no mercy. So show no mercy in return; just default. Watch what happens – their power depends upon OUR cooperation, and our continued fear. Reset and rebuild from there.
DEBTORS’ REVOLT — DEFAULT EN MASSE. The Founders revolted against England over far, far less.