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No Dead Cat Bounce In Spanish Home Price Which Collapse 12% In August

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite the exuberance in Spanish equity and bond markets (which in the US managed to create a quadruple-dip bounce), home prices just can't get a break in the troubled bailout-less nation. According to TINSA, the general home price in Spain fell 11.6% YoY, and has recent reaccelerated with a 2.8% drop sequentially as hope for a third-time's-the-charm bounce now faded for the forelorn real estate market. The Mediterranean Coast suffered the most, -14.7% YoY (and are down a cumulative 39.5% from the highs). Overall, Spanish house prices are down a cumulative 32.4% from the December 2007 highs (back to 2003 levels). This re-acceleration of the downturn in home prices is hardly what the Dreme is made of as bank balance sheets come under further pressure; deposit outflows will simply not stop until there is underlying improvement in bank collateral, i.e. mortgages and housing values; and so in effect, all this news indicates is that bank balance sheets are even more impaired than previously believed (tourniquet or amputation?).

The quadruple-dip of the Spanish real estate market...

 

which is now back to 2003 levels...

 

Charts: TINSA

08 Press Release Imie August 2012

 

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Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:35 | 2781403 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The cat didn't bounce? Never seen that before!

 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:53 | 2781467 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Please Tyler and everyone

Stop using that horrid, ugly and cruel 'dead cat bounce' phrase

It is painful to many of us animal lovers

Cats are among the world's wonderful creatures ... if you have never known the love of a cat you are deprived of one of life's great joys

Why be so sadistic regarding little creatures who are like babies in our arms

Please do banish that awful phrase

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:55 | 2781472 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Sure....now you just have to tell CNBC.

 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:59 | 2781487 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

I like cats too. They're good in stir fry.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:10 | 2781530 MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

The love of a cat???

The two that my daughters have saddled me with over the years don't seem particularly emotional.

They are loyal as long as the cat food isn't late.

In that they seem to resemble Congresscritters.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 12:29 | 2782141 falak pema
falak pema's picture

dead fed head bounce?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:37 | 2781410 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The housing market ,and any other market,will continue to seek it's natural level now matter how much money they throw at it. How hard is that to comprehend? 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:42 | 2781421 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

How hard is that to comprehend?

 

Can I use my "phone a friend" now?

 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:47 | 2781447 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

They can just print money, to devalue the currency, which nominally drives up asset prices and strengthens the bankßs balance sheet, problem solved. (for everyone but the rest of us)

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:49 | 2781454 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

They can just print money

 

Wow....they can actually do that?

 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:51 | 2781460 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That will only work for so long. If they print too much the currency market blws up. Japan has been printing for 20+ years and their housing and stock market is still deflating.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:56 | 2781478 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

That will only work for so long.

 

....only need a couple more minutes.

 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:46 | 2781570 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Surely those PhD economist central bankers have thought of that... I´m also fairly confident the BOJ head swaps notes with Bernanke and Draghi at their regular BIS get togethers.

(The tricky part is how to do it without triggering those hundreds of trillions in interest rate derivatives as inflation hedges... never mind, they have ZIRP & NIRP for that, house of cards stabilized)

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:38 | 2781414 AG BCN
AG BCN's picture

Asking prices are down 32.4% since Dec 2007. 

To sell you need to go to 50% and then pray that you can find a muppet. 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:43 | 2781429 youngman
youngman's picture

I wonder what price they show on the banks books ?????  My bet is 100%.....

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:47 | 2781446 gggunchi
gggunchi's picture

This is why a Troika audit scares everyone to death.  If the Spanish MBS' are accuratly valued the entire banking system goes tits up.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:02 | 2781491 falak pema
falak pema's picture

...If the Spanish MBS' are accuratly valued the entire banking system goes tits up...

that has huge bunga bunga potential for juiced up Oligarchs with their lolly sitting in Caymanista land! 

Land of financlal rape squared opens up like a reclining naked Maya, as those DSK type apes go berserk planet wise in their acquisitive sprees.

Whatever falls to foggy bottom gets picked up.

Its just a question of timing : KAiros moment. 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:21 | 2781576 butchee
butchee's picture

With "dynamic provisioning" it could be as high as 125%!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:44 | 2781431 rodocostarica
rodocostarica's picture

The rain in Spain falls mainly on the coast

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:46 | 2781440 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I thought that clown Sheldon Adelson was going to buy up all that RE and build his new Euro-Vegas in Madrid.

Isn't that part of the Draghi dreme package?

What the world needs is more Adelson casinos and Forex trading! That's true wealth creation for you.

This model of capitalism was built on an iconic message entitled : The wealth of NAtions! 

Look only to Draghi, Ben, Adelson and Forex and you will have understood it!

Wealth of nations as it cauldron bubbles in front of our eyes! 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:48 | 2781450 timbo_em
timbo_em's picture

Just like the overall economy, the house prices are on their way back to pre-euro levels. Unfortunately the overall debt, which caused everything to go up, is not.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:49 | 2781455 malikai
malikai's picture

IBEX really couldn't care less, so far.

UPDATED: http://blog.quantsig.net/2012/09/11/ibex/

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:50 | 2781458 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

El Gato Muerto

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:51 | 2781459 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

but, but, but......spain's 10 yr is under 6%.  i thought that meant everything was fixed.  no more recession in the US or europe and China has resumed its 15% annual growth.  i cant be wrong.  the intelligent folks on cnbc said we are good.

 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 09:52 | 2781462 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

No Dead Cat Bounce

You can only throw them down so many times before they just stick to the floor. 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:03 | 2781498 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

(tourniquet or amputation?).

Guillotine method?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:06 | 2781509 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

Australia House Prices plunge 10%...

Luckily, "the bottom is in," rumor has it:

 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/breaking-news/house-prices-flat...

 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 17:36 | 2783175 Element
Element's picture

Prices plunge? Where? Over what time interval did this 'plunge' occur?

The link you provided said this:

"The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic home value index reported that Australian property prices were flat in August compared with a 0.6 per cent rise in July and one per cent gain in June."

and;

"A flat finish to calendar 2012 would mean a second straight year of falling property prices, given the market is down 0.6 per cent in the eight months to August. ... Australian property prices fell 3.8 per cent in calendar 2011."

 

i.e. no price plunge is evident, on the contrary, the tread in recent months is towards flat-lining, as the price decline slowed to almost nothing, but actually had a small NET rise occur over the past 3-months (certaily no larger than sample error I expect).

And then there's this:

"... The August RP Data report showed Sydney had Australia's highest median dwelling price at $530,000, up 2.4 per cent from three months ago.  Melbourne property prices had risen 2.5 per cent to $465,000.  Darwin posted the largest increase in percentage terms in the three months to August, with prices up 5.2 per cent at $497,000. ..."

Does that look like a price plunge?

I'm still trying to work out where this -10% price plunge figure you mentioned factors-in, as the linked is evidently not the source.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 17:58 | 2783325 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

He might be referring to Steve Keen's article from thebull.com.au:

 

Real house prices have fallen 10% since June 2010

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/28048-australian-house-prices-down-...

 

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/05/01/australian-house-prices-do...

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 18:58 | 2783466 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

If the median house price (Australia) is about $500,000 there is instability there since the median salary is only about $63,000.

http://www.payscale.com/research/AU/Country=Australia/Salary

My realtor says a price:income ratio > 4 = unaffordability. He says ideally it should be between 2 and 3. Higher then that and it is unsustainable, he says.

BTW, Here is some info for median house prices down under:

http://apm.com.au/

It does look as if the prices are "flat" for the last few months.

The real question is how much further will China's slowdown result in job layoffs, cancellation of projects, and a dropoff in Aussie exports? How much of the Aussie economy depends on resource industry and construction? I almost bought a place in Sydney in 2000. Wish I had. Now I have to wait probably ten years before prices regress to the mean there.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 08:57 | 2785141 i-dog
i-dog's picture

When comparing median price to income ratios, you need to use median household income...not median salary. The "good old days" of single income families that were relevant to your realtor's rule of thumb are long past....

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:18 | 2781564 schatzi
schatzi's picture

There's still loads of shit sitting on those bank books which they refuse to dump on the market. You really don't want to realise those "non-booked" losses. But hey, who gives a shit, Spanish bank shares roaring as Draghi has their backs covered.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:25 | 2781594 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Dow +69.  SCOREBOARD.  Damn I'm sick of this.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 11:51 | 2781980 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Wow--12%. 

Only 80% more to go...

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