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"No Deal" - Greek Bondholders Do Not Think Agreement Can Be Reached Before "Crunch Date"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Update: the NYT chimes in, just to make the point all too clear:

Hedge Funds May Sue Greece if It Tries to Force Loss

 

Hedge funds have been known to use hardball tactics to make money. Now they have come up with a new one: suing Greece in a human rights court to make good on its bond payments.

 

The novel approach would have the funds arguing in the European Court of Human Rights that Greece had violated bondholder rights, though that could be a multiyear project with no guarantee of a payoff. And it would not be likely to produce sympathy for these funds, which many blame for the lack of progress so far in the negotiations over restructuring Greece’s debts.

 

The tactic has emerged in conversations with lawyers and hedge funds as it became clear that Greece was considering passing legislation to force all private bondholders to take losses, while exempting the European Central Bank, which is the largest institutional holder of Greek bonds with 50 billion euros or so.

 

Legal experts suggest that the investors may have a case because if Greece changes the terms of its bonds so that investors receive less than they are owed, that could be viewed as a property rights violation — and in Europe, property rights are human rights.

 

According to one senior government official involved in the negotiations, Greece will present an offer to creditors this week that includes an interest rate or coupon on new bonds received in exchange for the old bonds that is less than the 4 percent private creditors have been pushing for — and they will be forced to accept it whether they like it or not.

 

“This is crunch time for us. The time for niceties has expired,” said the person, who was not authorized to talk publicly. “These guys will have to accept everything.”

 

According to one senior government official involved in the negotiations, Greece will present an offer to creditors this week that includes an interest rate or coupon on new bonds received in exchange for the old bonds that is less than the 4 percent private creditors have been pushing for — and they will be forced to accept it whether they like it or not.

 

“This is crunch time for us. The time for niceties has expired,” said the person, who was not authorized to talk publicly. “These guys will have to accept everything.”

Time to remind readers of our definition of nuisance value, long before anyone even considered hedge fund hold outs an issue? Thank you for confirming everything we have said so far.

Original:

Five minutes before market close yesterday, Bloomberg came out with an "exclusive" interview with Marathon CEO Bruce Richards, who may or may not be in the Greek bondholder committee any longer, in which the hedge fund CEO said that the Greek creditor group had come to an agreement and that the thorniest issue that stands between Greece and a coercive default (and major fallout for Europe) was in the bag, so to say. To which we had one rhetorical comment: "Well as long as Marathon is talking for all the possible hold outs..." As it turns out, he wasn't. As it further turns out, Mr. Richards, was just a little bit in over his head about pretty much everything else too, expect for talking up the remainder of his book of course (unsuccessfully, as we demonstrated earlier - although it does beg the question: did Marathon trade today on the rumor it itself spread, based on information that was material and thus only afforded to a privileged few creditors, especially if as it turns, the information was false - we are positive the SEC will be delighted to know the answer). Because as the supposed restructurng expert should know, once you have a disparate group of ad hoc creditors, which is precisely what we have in the Greek circus now, there is nothing even remotely close to a sure deal, especially when one needs a virtually unanimous decision for no CDS trigger event to occur (yes, ISDA, for some ungodly reason, you are still relevant in this bizarro world). Which also happens to be the fascination for all the hedge funds, whom we first and then subsequently repeatedly noted, are holding Europe hostage, to buy ever greater stakes of Greek bonds at 20 cents on the dollar. Because, finally, as the FT reports, the deal is nowhere in sight: "Several hedge fund managers that hold Greek debt have said they have not been involved in the talks and will not be agreeing with the “private sector involvement” (PSI) deal – which centres on a 50 per cent loss on bondholders’ capital and a reduction in the interest they receive... Even members of the committee concede the process is unlikely to succeed in time for the crunch date: a €14.5bn bond repayment falling due on March 20." But, wait, that's not what Bloomberg and Bruce Richards told us yesterday, setting off a 100 point DJIA rally. Time to pull up the Einhorn idiot market diagram once again.

Once again: here is why one should never trust the media, especially when it is serving ulterior conflicted interests. From the FT:

Fraught discussions on Wednesday – led on the creditor side by veteran technocrats Jean Lemierre, special adviser to the chairman of BNP Paribas, and Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute for International Finance – have hit on a formula with Greek officials that an untested minority of bondholders could yet reject.

 

Several hedge fund managers that hold Greek debt have said they have not been involved in the talks and will not be agreeing with the “private sector involvement” (PSI) deal – which centres on a 50 per cent loss on bondholders’ capital and a reduction in the interest they receive.

 

Alongside them are insurance companies, fund managers and pension funds that also have little incentive in agreeing to the negotiated terms.

 

Several hedge fund managers that hold Greek debt have said they have not been involved in the talks and will not be agreeing with the “private sector involvement” (PSI) deal – which centres on a 50 per cent loss on bondholders’ capital and a reduction in the interest they receive.

 

Alongside them are insurance companies, fund managers and pension funds that also have little incentive in agreeing to the negotiated terms.

 

The creditor steering committee Mr Lemierre and Mr Dallara head represents bondholdings worth an estimated €155bn of Greece’s outstanding €260bn debt. That leaves a further €50bn or so of such uncanvassed private bondholders once European Central Bank and eurozone national central bank holdings are excluded, according to estimates by JPMorgan.

 

It is these private bondholders that must now be brought on board for a negotiated settlement if the Greek government is to succeed in its goal of a “voluntary” debt swap on its full borrowings and avoid a default.

 

“The [expected] agreement is a short-term fix. The market will be happy with it for a few days or a week but then we run into the hard stuff,” said an executive at one multibillion-dollar hedge fund that owns Greek bonds and has not been party to the negotiations. “The hard part is going to be getting the rest of the bondholders [outside the creditor committee] to agree.”

Punchline in 3...2...1...

Even members of the committee concede the process is unlikely to succeed in time for the crunch date: a €14.5bn bond repayment falling due on March 20.

And here is why naive Bloomberg reporters should not report anything and everything they hear hook, line and sinker:

“As a firm we are not convinced that any deal today is the last deal,” said Robert Rauch, director of research at the $2.7bn hedge fund Gramercy, which led negotiations for bondholders in the restructuring of Argentina’s debt in 2007. “This is a multiplayer negotiation and not all the players are even at the table.”

 

Gramercy is one of numerous hedge funds that say they have avoided buying into Greek debt – even though it has been trading at huge discounts in recent months – because they still do not see it as cheap enough.

The story from here on is familiar to all who have been following our narrative on this matter since June:

The options available to Greece and its advisers, Lazards and Cleary Gottlieb, should full agreement fail are hardly attractive. Foremost among them would be Greek legislation to insert “collective action clauses” into the country’s existing debt stock.

 

Such clauses could be exercised to force a recalcitrant minority of bondholders to agree new terms, but in doing so they could trigger credit default swaps written on Greek debt – a dangerous move that could trip the eurozone into a full-blown banking crisis.

 

Part of the problem was that many of Greece’s unknown creditors were thought to be holding out for exactly such a CDS trigger, one fund manager said.

Translation: subordination cometh. But we will touch upon this topic in two months, when everyone else is talking about it and/or is an expert on it.

And since everyone is now at least a broad bankruptcy expert, or very soon will be, here, courtesy of FT's Sam Jones, is a refresher on bankruptcy negotiations game theory, and why one pretty much never gets what one wants, absent spending 4-7 years in bankruptcy court first:

“There isn’t much of a reason for anyone to agree to the terms precisely because of the threat of CAC clauses,” said a fund manager who owns Greek debt. “If people think they are going to get forced into a deal anyway, then why agree to the terms before you have to? Especially if by not doing so you can trigger your CDS.”

 

Whatever the outcome of negotiations in the run up to March, there is little doubt among many bond investors about the worth of the PSI process.

 

As the Emerging Sovereign Group, a $1bn hedge fund owned by US private equity giant Carlyle, told its clients last year, European politicians have opened a “Pandora’s box” that now looks likely to lead to a “repricing of sovereign default risk across the euro area”.

And with numbers like $500 billion, €1 trillion and even €10 trillion flying around, to make sure the firewall in advance of the Greek default is at least half full, if not half empty, we can guarantee readers that the repricing won't be higher. But it will take stocks the usual 6-8 weeks to grasp what is patently obvious to anyone who has put in even 10 minutes of work in analyzing the complete fall out from Europe that is about to hit.

 

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Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:51 | 2076118 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

COLLAPSE

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:56 | 2076143 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

if i had a trillion dollars.. id be rich - http://hedge.ly/zos0ra

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:04 | 2076172 Chris Jusset
Chris Jusset's picture

This Greek fiasco will NEVER go away ... it will be with us for all eternity ...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:14 | 2076203 john39
john39's picture

no doubt, exactly what Goldman had in mind...

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 00:13 | 2076977 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...is that what Lucifer is calling himself now. Goldman? Lol  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlNrQGmj6oQ&feature=related

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 01:07 | 2077062 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

The absolute, cutting, strange and totally ironical statement is right here, paraphrasing...

Take Greece to Human Rights court? Human rights court? Bankster Spawn, aka SledgeHammer Hedge Funds are going to say their human rights have been violated?

is this even for real? Can it be? Next, greece will go to a war crimes tribunal for hoiting the feewings of wittle hedgies?

It goes from bad to bizzare in one fell swoop...

ori

/truth/

 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 03:21 | 2077204 FreeSlave
FreeSlave's picture

Greece government is selling off it's real estate (govenemnt buildings, islands, land, etc.)  http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2... Translated from Lithuanian newspaper...

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 04:09 | 2077214 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

ORI, this is not bizzare at all, just a very "logical conclusion":

1. Human Rights in Europe are still worth something

2. Corporations are People in the US

3. if you squint your eyes you'll can make the next "logical" step, humans=people and corporations=people becomes corporations are humans. With human rights, though with more lawyers than you and me, so with more rights than you and me...

I note with great satisfaction that ZH is loading up on the details of the Greek Bonds situation and is getting slightly away from the total adoration of the hedgies involved. Might be true that truth sets you free. Well done.

--------

Meanwhile I had the pleasure of reading Tyler's comments and the back and forth further down. Just a little detail: corporate bankruptcy principles applied to sovereign defaults? LOL You might be very knowlegdeble about corporate bankruptcy, but please, historically every single sovereign default or restructuring has been an "ad-hoc" situation with lots of politics involved. Most of the people here seem not to understand what the word sovereign implies. Another telltale of our times?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 04:14 | 2077226 Michael
Michael's picture

Liquidation and discharge of sovereign debt in write-offs are the only solution.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 08:05 | 2077350 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Ghordius, perhaps the word sovereign as we understand is set to enter the history books>?

Sovereign man? hah!

ori

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:51 | 2078271 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

ori, it might be. And yes, I fully agree with you, the concept of "Sovereign man" is best answered with "hah!" followed by a "you don't understand half of it".

Though I do expect a backlash, at some stage, and sovereigns might be dumb, slow and cumbersome if you compare them with our dear hyper-multinational companies stacked with whizkids, but they still have fangs in form of courts, legislators, police, navies and armies. If you exasperate them too much, they sometimes get mad and change the rules.

Further down TD speaks about an eventual waterfall bifurcation event and he is correct. I can still envision a moment when another Paulson shows up and says: "give us X USD or the banking system goes down" and X is something in the ballpark of "seriously preposterous" and there is a rejection moment: "why do you have X losses? oh, you made bets on your capability of predicting the future? with our money? you are out of your mind, the derivative contracts you hold so dear are now void and illegal, retroactively - it never happened, period".

Plenty of such moments in history when sovereigns realize that legal does not mean moral or sane - sometimes something has to be just threathening enough. The parasite can only go that far until the hosts either dies or fights it. And it's seriously difficult to kill sovereigns.

Of course, for some of the Anglophone financials guys that never saw the frontier of the empire, this is fantasy - they think that contract law was somehow given by Moses on an iTablet, they don't see or believe in the fangs of the beast, only the teats on which they are suckling...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:15 | 2076206 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

Sysaphus(sp?) might have some advice for the negotiators.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:50 | 2076314 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

All this is akin to being 'asked' to take in the ass first so others watching in line can determine if there's an acceptable amount of pain.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:09 | 2076538 flacon
flacon's picture

European talk, talk, talk, talk, talk, talk, talk, !!! BAM !!!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:42 | 2076625 economics1996
economics1996's picture

No deal because the bastards are flat assed broke.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:38 | 2076615 Montgomery Burns
Montgomery Burns's picture

Appropriate it's happening with "Greek" bonds then.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:41 | 2076315 redpill
redpill's picture

Sisyphus, who compared to these morons was incredibly productive.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:05 | 2076786 Chris Jusset
Chris Jusset's picture

I agree with your excellent post ... except for one thing: the Euro-banksters are imbeciles rather than morons ... But you were damn close ...

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 01:14 | 2077074 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...Sysaphus you say? ...Dithspicable! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcMFsgA9iPo

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:53 | 2076498 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

Oh, it will go away.  Once they default.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:27 | 2076437 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Scene from Austin Powers 2019 ...

 

Dr. Evil over headset to world leaders:  "That will be ... one trillion dollars!"

World Leaders (after raucous laughter):  "Yeah, no problem.  Do we get fries with that, or is that another trillion?"

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:58 | 2076946 PSEUDOLOGOI
PSEUDOLOGOI's picture

If I had a trillion dollars, obviously I woudn't care about anything...

Therefore, one day I would just wake up and decide to build a long silver road and send Morgy to the cemetary...

But I don't have a trillion dollars...

More correctly: it's not legal for me to electronically print the trillion dollars, even though this would be a "green" way to print it. Oh well... Sigh...

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 07:35 | 2077335 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

It used to be a million .... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHacDYj8KZM

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:31 | 2076275 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Oh come on, how many times have we been through this Kabuki Theatre? They will wring their hands, and talk tough, and in the end they will cave in and do whatever the bankers want. I don't even get upset about it any more. It just is what it is.....

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:42 | 2076317 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Futures are up...maybe the market is right and all of us here on ZH are the ones that are wrong.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:04 | 2076376 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

My thoughts exactly. I keep hearing the sky is falling yet nothing happens. Who the fuck to believe?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:28 | 2076442 roy10
roy10's picture

Just look at the markets - Yields on peripheral EU debt is down from peak levels. Even Libor rates are trending down, which is exactly what prompted the 2009 rally.

Many things could still happen, but the stress in the market is clearly fading.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:03 | 2076520 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

The bots that bid the markets up see 2 letters. QE.  Any little guy who plays in this scam will look in the till to find his money, and see 2 different letters.  MT.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:18 | 2076561 roy10
roy10's picture

Pretty much. What you need to realize is that the LTRO is having the exact same effect as the QE. The Euro is tanking and the risk trade is on steroids. We’re back in a QE world and if history has taught us something, we can expect a steadily rising market as long as the QE (LTRO) is in action.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:26 | 2076583 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

A rose by any other name...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:54 | 2076661 economics1996
economics1996's picture

 

Stoctivity and others, you people on this board are traders and players and you have not seen this game before?  QE will send the financials higher, until the dope runs out, and the dope is having less and less affect on the patent.  

With the trillions in liquidity there could very well be a boom, just like the housing boom, but it will be much shorter in duration and what will cause the boom to bust will be the spike in prices, especially energy.

This has been the Obama/Bernanke game plan all along, one more bubble, get re-elected, and move to fascism, dictatorship.   The plan worked well for Bush in 2004.  Obama and Bernanke must be wondering what they are doing wrong and why the bubble has not appeared up to now.

If you are foolish to be in the market long remember during the Weimar Republic days the stock market was always going up, up, up, but when it was all over actual gains adjusted for inflation DECLINED 33%! 

You people should know this crap, you are the traders not me, I am just a stupid economist that reads a lot of books.

 

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 22:11 | 2076694 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

I don't hear too many people here blaming BO or insinuating that this was premeditated. +1

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:57 | 2076665 jcaz
jcaz's picture

LOL- Roy,  the clouds must be so pretty up there in the Ivory Tower.....

Dude, pay attention- QE failed.

Stocks are always the last to get the message.

Try reading half of what Tyler posts in his blog- you'll get the clue.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 22:05 | 2076682 roy10
roy10's picture

I don't know how you can claim that QE failed since we don't know what the world would look like if there was no QE. In any case, QE was very effective in giving the market a short-term boost and that's what we're seeing right now.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 07:30 | 2077334 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

LOL, yes QE has given the markets a boost because that was what it was intended to do. Has QE helped mainstreet? No. Has it helped the US re-figure itself in a post-industrial world. No. Has it helped hide the losses of some very big banks? Yes.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:07 | 2077979 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Well, there is little doubt the intervention had an affect on prices.  I think that was his point.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 22:38 | 2076765 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

That's the thing about the sky falling. Never happens when you want it too. Markets are pretty easy to push around now that ABSOLUTELY NOBODY plays anymore. And frankly, this sh*t could go either way. They could pump in 50% more money and stocks could go up 30% or we could have a deflationary collapse. Best to stick to things that will retain value over time.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:18 | 2076407 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

 

 

Zero Hedge always talks about doom

The stock market continues to boom

The Zero Hedge bitchez

See nothing but glitches

And years of incredible gloom

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:08 | 2076539 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Well go long then and share a room with Robotard so you clowns can trade after the fact predictions.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 22:04 | 2076679 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Elwood, do yourself a favor.  Look at the DJIA the last 10 years; look at the gains as a percent.  Look at the price index and gains as a percent.  Subtract DJIA from Inflation = XXXX

Look at the monetary base over the last 10 years.

Look at gold/silver the last ten years.

Look at the plans for more quantitative easing.  Do yourself a favor and do a little research.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:22 | 2076572 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Elwood, 

Your post is not accurate. I can not speak for other reader's but can do so for myself. This Zero Hedge "bitch" as you put it has read, studied and learned a tremendous amount's about the financial system's and there function's.

I won't get long winded here but the knowledge that flow's through these post and also some of the reader's responses is extremly valuable to the person that actually takes the time to focus with a open mind.

Now with that said, 

Ron Paul  2012

 

 

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:58 | 2076670 economics1996
economics1996's picture

I totally agree.  The education level and knowledge of these posters is by far much better than any board I have been on.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 03:20 | 2077205 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Just curious..which Republican is your 2nd choice if Ron Paul isn't nominated?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 05:54 | 2077292 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

"none of the above." ... write-in Ron Paul

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 08:11 | 2077355 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

George E. TyreBiter

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:27 | 2076586 NewThor
NewThor's picture

There was once a 16 trillion dollar debt,

which the money lover's liked to forget!

Instead, they squeal with glee at all the

free money at the cost of slavery!

They cuddle their cash so bold, and say

"I've inherited the world and sold my soul!

I live to serve my fiat masters, and I do

what I'm told!"

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:58 | 2076668 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Ummm, "boom", Elwood?

Where?

This your first stock market?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:03 | 2076371 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Can you just imagine the raping and pillaging that went on in the financial markets before the onset of "tell the truth" sites like Zero Hedge..it is shuddering to think what innuendo and lies was spread via the media outlets a few years that was not discounted by anyone!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 22:50 | 2076792 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Couldn't make it through the day without ZH's priceless translations of what passes for news out there in MSM land.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:01 | 2076811 The Fonz...befo...
The Fonz...before shark jump's picture

Can you imagine the rape and pillaging jp Morgan and other founders of the fed did before any semblence of order, disclosure, registration and the sec was created......

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:28 | 2076443 true brain
true brain's picture

It doesn't make sense to take a hair cut from the bond holders' perspective. Especially if the 25% of bondholders are hedgefund who also bet against the euro and bet against the market. It's a win-win scenario for them to have  Greek default. First they get to recoup from cds on the bonds; second they get huge payoff from market crash. It's a no brainer. Someone explains to me why the hedgefunds should take a pay cut- unless they're threatened with lead headache or something.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:49 | 2076594 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

because (maybe),,, something like this could happen (again)
"The Costa Concordia ran aground the tiny Tuscan island of Giglio, Saturday, Jan. 14, 2012"

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:14 | 2076838 Return2Sanity
Return2Sanity's picture

 

It might appear that the hedgies are holding all the good cards, but a wise person never bets against the people who have armies. My prediction is that, in the end, the hedgie holdouts will be required to accept new bonds in exchange for their old bonds on whatever terms the Greek government deems appropriate. This will not be declared a credit event, since they got something for something, and their complaints about it will simply be ignored. However, the important followup question is: will everyone then realize it is completely pointless to buy CDS on the default of any sovereign since it will never be allowed to pay off, or is there some new magic perception trick in their bag to make that game go on?

 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:16 | 2078017 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Agreed. Hedgies are the bad guys.  Governments taking care of the poor people are the good guys.  The Hedgies will get what they are given and like it.

The market thereafter, however, will not be so forgiving, thus reigning in the end of market participation.

After all, who wants to buy bonds that give no opportunity for cap gain, pay zero in adjusted interest, and now provide no upside with CDS default?

Intervention begets ever more intervention, and ultimately sows the seeds of inevitable systematic decline. Bitchez.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:31 | 2076891 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Because if the market crashes the government retirements are hopelessly unfunded and people find out and start passive aggressive behavior or active aggressive behavior.

They are just experimenting with austerity force levels. And the greek people are falling for it somewhat trying to out riot each other.

If they are not demanding a euro exit they stand no chance.

But people still rumor monger about how america want's them to collapse so it can get people buying dollars. The rothchilds are way past giving up something to get something. They'll hold onto every piece of the empire bitterly.

 

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 13:36 | 2078385 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

They've got the guns.
We've got the numbers.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:33 | 2077621 Antipodeus
Antipodeus's picture

Perhaps those holding some of those CDSs suspect, or fear,, that if they do in fact seek to cash them with their counter-parties they'll find the cupboard is bare?

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:33 | 2076454 non_anon
non_anon's picture

no haircut for you!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:38 | 2076467 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

*Corrapse.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:29 | 2076592 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Crunch date: March 20 -- time enough. Don't believe the hype.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:19 | 2076852 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

"COLLAPSE"

They can rebuild it with vaginal mesh. It'll just make intercourse painful and them sick.

Oh sorry thought you said prolapse.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:21 | 2076866 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"I'll take bailout for 10 trillion, Alex."
"And the answer is: it is now called The Zorro!"
"What is....hmmmm...what is..." time running low, forboding music petering out "the Euro?"
"CORRECT! For TEN TRILLION IN BAILOUTS LADIES AND GENTLEMEN!" (Crowd claps, feelings of relief/euphoria overcome contestant.) "And you may choose...
"I'll take...i'll take...i'll take Occupation for 20 billion, Alex."
"And the answer is...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:38 | 2076909 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They can't win and everyone knows it.  You can't make the ECB bonds senior to the others when they are the exact same instruments.  If as was said in the article a few days ago the Greek agreement to force bond holders to the new bonds aren't applied to the ECB, then it's not enforcible to the rest of the bond holders. 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:51 | 2076119 redpill
redpill's picture

If you're going to default, you might as well go big, and start clean.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:44 | 2076324 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I remain in the camp of those who believe the EU governments can coerce the banks into eating any loss they dictate.

But I won't go so far as to believe the banks will lend any more money.  It is THAT which seems to me to be quite dicey.  You can rob someone of money he already has at risk, but it's much harder to get him to send you more money to steal later.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:21 | 2076569 roy10
roy10's picture

The banks will do anything they think would generate a profit. Right now, they are all in on the LTRO carry trade, despite the obvious risks.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:24 | 2076878 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

the EU what?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:18 | 2078032 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Working for Iceland.  Anyone see the establishment hit piece in Time Magazine on how it really isn't working despite workign so well?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:51 | 2076121 JoeSexPack
JoeSexPack's picture

Default? Don't tease me...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:56 | 2076144 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Amen.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:46 | 2076333 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

"There's no success like failure, and failure's no success at all."

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:51 | 2076122 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Drachma drama

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:54 | 2076133 redpill
redpill's picture

Toga tragedy

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:06 | 2076175 redpill
redpill's picture

Farces and catharsis?

Acropolis necrosis?

Nero with a gyro?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:52 | 2076349 DrunkenPleb
DrunkenPleb's picture

Corinthian Clusterfuck

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:54 | 2076496 Blank Reg
Blank Reg's picture

Hellas in a hand bag

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:06 | 2076531 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Parthenonsense

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:56 | 2076939 HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

Goose the Zeus

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 00:22 | 2076994 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

Plato's Play-dough!

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 00:54 | 2077046 forexskin
forexskin's picture

socratease me

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 04:54 | 2077250 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Too funny, all the way up this mini-funny...

Greek Speak!

ori

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 12:19 | 2078039 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Only one person can solve this problem: That Greek fellow, Harry Paratestes.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 07:04 | 2077298 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Hermaphrodite 'it' with your Hermes.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 07:49 | 2077341 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Vesuiviused. New verb as iin i got totally Vesuiviused when ....

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 10:31 | 2077610 supafuckinmingster
supafuckinmingster's picture

Minotaur Monetized?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:23 | 2076426 harmonymonkey
harmonymonkey's picture

Euro gyro

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:10 | 2076188 Sweet Chicken
Sweet Chicken's picture

Parthenon preversion

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 01:51 | 2077135 Chicken_Little
Chicken_Little's picture

Like in Animal House, Toga Party!!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:51 | 2076123 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

I foresee head cuts, not simple haircuts.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:03 | 2076159 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Or as the Queen of Hearts in Alice in Wonderland said, "I warn you dear child, if I lose my temper, you lose your head."    

  1. The Queen of Hearts likes to play croquet but she needs to win all the time and she is known to change the rules at her own will. Therefore the game doesn’t seem very logical to other players.  Is the Queen of Hearts the ECB, Fed, IMF or ??
    Or is the Red Queen driving this European can kicking?  Her quote, "It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.  If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!"   Yes, this sounds more like current European policy.


Wed, 01/18/2012 - 22:04 | 2076680 saulysw
saulysw's picture

A fantastic comparison!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:53 | 2076128 nwskii
nwskii's picture

BIG FAT HAIRY DEAL

In other news dont forget to set your DVR to watch Super Bowl XXVXXVWIIXXVXXIIII

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:19 | 2076221 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

GOOOOOO 49ers! After the super bowl they have that new show on....... wait, whats a greece?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:21 | 2076240 Rainman
Rainman's picture

did you hear a flush ?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:55 | 2076353 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Oh Arrrrchiiiiieeeee...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:47 | 2076641 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Classic!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:54 | 2076132 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

But stocks were up today! Doom and gloomers go back to Greece and don't spoil the party. /sarc off

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:19 | 2076411 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

There was a point in time where stock prices reflected the companies underlying fundamentals and future prospects.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:59 | 2076511 Blank Reg
Blank Reg's picture

Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha! Oh God, stop! STOP! Yur killing me!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:10 | 2076544 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Hmm.. I think Nirvana and Pearl Jam were cutting their first albums at the time..

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:00 | 2076141 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Thank you very much for the Einhorn idiot market diagram:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012...

It makes my life easier. Now I fully understand why the Sun rises in the East, sets in the West, rises in the East, ...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:45 | 2076325 Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

And now you fully understand BoA's awesome trading strategem as outlined on ZH a coupla months ago.   Basically, as long as you are able to correctly identify the Sun in a line-up, you are only a mini-step away from a cushy job in high finance !

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 23:17 | 2076847 Stu Pedassle
Stu Pedassle's picture

"Basically, as long as you are able to correctly identify the Sun in a line-up, you are only a mini-step away from a cushy job in high finance !"

Laughed my ass off at that last line.....

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:59 | 2076362 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Are you trying to say that silver rises in the futures and settle's during the day trade? What a novel thought, hmmmmm. 

 

Ron Paul 2012

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:58 | 2076142 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

no no no

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:58 | 2076151 tmftdoyle
tmftdoyle's picture

but cnbc's chief international correspondent, mcc, assured us yesterday that based on her reporting that a deal would be done this week!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:20 | 2076233 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

CNBC can "report" whatever they want or whatever is wanted for them to "report" but it doesn't change a thing.  This is called checkmate...game over.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:58 | 2076152 navy62802
navy62802's picture

There are going to be many headlines like this, going back and forth between failure and success for the talks. One day, we'll have optimism toward the Greek situation and the next day, we'll have pessimism. We are going to have to wait until March 20th to find out the truth.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:15 | 2076201 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

By then the dow should be well over 14000 and approaching a new all time high. The Fed, IMF. ECB all can just print money out of thin air and solve any problem that comes along. It's all Bullshit!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:59 | 2076155 Sockeye
Sockeye's picture

Meh

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:00 | 2076157 czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

I bought 70oz of silver today. I'm no di Medici, but even a working stiff can come out on top when this tsunami of shit rolls through. If you don't end up getting shot, anyway.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:02 | 2076160 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

I wonder, since Greek default is the most anticipated event in the history of finance, if it will be a non-event.  I don't have any special knowledge of the particulars, but I have to believe that everyone connected with this fiasco will have taken defensive measures by now.  Who would go down with a ship that takes ten years to sink?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:02 | 2076166 czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

Most of the population, apparently.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:19 | 2076229 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Any one who isn't buying stocks evidently

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 22:59 | 2076807 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

When they pass it off as a non-event you'll know it's for real.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 00:27 | 2076996 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

That is happening now. It is priced in. Or is it?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:02 | 2076165 falak pema
falak pema's picture

this beats the Loch ness.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:05 | 2076173 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is not how collapse happens.  Governments will do anything to keep the juggled balls in the air.  If something is visible, they will fix it, and if that fix requires jail time or murder, they will execute that and absolve themselves of responsibility.

Ask Dominique Strauss Kahn about govts willing to do anything to keep the train rolling.  Or ask Gaddhafi.

All of this is too visible.  Things that can be fixed by a decree and a pistol shot will be fixed by decree and with a pistol shot.

It's things that have no possible fix, regardless of legality,  that will cause the collapse.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:16 | 2076215 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Nice!!!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:02 | 2076373 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Very Nice!!!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:06 | 2076379 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

very very nice!!!!

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 05:06 | 2077222 Tyranny is Love
Tyranny is Love's picture

Yes! ...Except... if the collapse is intended as part of a larger geopolitical picture. ie Re-engineering society. Then the question is whats the intended timing and can they pull it off.

A system this complex become impossible to control with the usual mechanism as it approaches collapse. All the normal rules cease to exist. Even TPTB may get crushed by the collapse.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:08 | 2076176 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Oil futures catching a little chubby in AH...a little tent pole pitching

Think we'll get any $102 bids tonight?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:06 | 2076177 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

An now for something completely different: WTF

Obama Considering Summers for World Bank

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-18/summers-under-consideration-to-...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:11 | 2076189 redpill
redpill's picture

God I was hoping that was an Onion article...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:11 | 2076192 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Me too. WTF again

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:21 | 2076237 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Obama has no clue...and the republicans have no answer...unfortunately.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:40 | 2076309 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Factoid:

World Bank senior personnel are entitled to a particularly powerful retirement benefit.  The World Bank will pay full relocation package to Anywhere In The World, and often, that package can include housing subsidy, which can translate to interest free mortgage and supplemental downpayment.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:02 | 2076366 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

This isn't Kabuki Theatre anymore, it's Kevorkian Theatre...Kill me now! (so I don't have to watch this farce play out). I mean do these guys meet up regularly and have massive circle jerks?  Revolving door doesn't cover it, it's like having Freddy as your neighbor on Nightmare Street. WTF!!!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 22:03 | 2076678 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Summers- my hero.... Gives me hope to know that someone so clueless- so obtuse as to not comprehend any of the basic elements of Economics- can always find work.....

So he's blowing Obama now.......

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:07 | 2076179 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

EU is doomed. WTF. USA keeps pretending . I wonder if there is shows to be made of this.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:07 | 2076180 cnx
cnx's picture

I still believe that even if Greek CACs are inserted, the absoultely objective and unbiased ISDA would not be able to recognize this as a credit event. So please cease to count on any CDS trigger in Euroland now and in the future. 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:08 | 2076182 adr
adr's picture

I read an article on Farcial Times, cough* Financial Times, that claimed even if a Greek CDS were to be triggered the maximum that would be paid out was somewhere in the neighborhood of $8 billion. I nearly spit soda all over my computer.

Really if all this nonsense was over such a paltry sum, then $50 billion in Fed pocket change could fix the entire European problem. Surely we can't have a global financial collapse because hedge funds couldn't hedge $8 billion properly. Greek debt is trading at 410% because a CDS would cause an $8 billion credit event? Really?

The stories are already being written to write of what was a doomsday scenario a few short months ago as being nothing but a tiny speedbump. Next we'll hear stories how the housing market in the US is rebounding so fast that property values should triple by 2013, and the American consumer can handle $400 per barrel oil just fine.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:21 | 2076239 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

I asked the same qn myself - USD 8 bn? Is that it? Then why don't you just say that's it and let's move on?

I think it's the precedent they're concerned about - because then the question becomes - who's holding the CDS on Portuguese bonds? Spanish bonds? Italian bonds? Who's exposed? BOOM! Panic!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 22:05 | 2076684 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Bingo- this was never about Greek paper- it's about all the crap leveraged against it-  a black hole that no one wants to even begin to contemplate.....

If this was just about Greece, then ya- write a freaking check and be done with them....

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 02:00 | 2077148 Desert Irish
Desert Irish's picture

But who has CDS's exposure on the banks with the most CDS exposure to Greece......that's is what is scaring the crap out of everyone.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:09 | 2076185 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-18/no-one-knows-truth-about-300b-b...
No One Knows Truth About $300 Billion Bonds From Alleged Crash

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:21 | 2076236 chunga
chunga's picture

Off-Topic...but I gotta do a paste and run on this. Fuck you Bank of America.

Bank of America CEO Moynihan to be Named as Defendant in Federal Foreclosure Lawsuit

I hereby accuse your bank, or one if its functionaries, of altering the original document, which is a crime in the State of Rhode Island, and then recording the altered document in the Narragansett Rhode Island Registry of Deeds for the sole purpose of illegally foreclosing on Mr. Brady's property.   This too is a crime.   I hereby impute this crime to you as the Captain of the Ship that is Bank of America.

 

            This is but a small sampling of the documentation that I have amassed in this file, but I am certain, that as an educated man, in charge of Billions of dollars, you can see that such practices as working fraud on the Federal Court and the Town of Narragansett, Rhode Island, are not sound.

 

            The gratuitous letter my client received from Mr. Lara, an alleged Customer Advocate in your office, states that "[p]roper foreclosure & bankruptcy notices were issued accurately in accordance with the status of your account."  (attached hereto)  This statement is also imputed to you since Mr. Lara works out of your office.

 

            Let me be clear, I am going to file an action for Mr. Brady in the Federal District Court for the District of Rhode Island and I am going to name you a Defendant.  Let me stress that I do not operate from a position of fear, nor do I stand in awe of you or your company.  The time has come for you to be called to task for your role in the destruction of my America.

 

                                                                                    Very truly yours,

 

                                                                                   

 

                                                                                    George E. Babcock, Esquire

 

 

 

 

 

 

cc:US Trustee for District of RI

     RI Attorney General

     Narragansett Town Solicitor

     Chunga

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:22 | 2076247 ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Bullish. BAC to rise 3% tomorrow on the news. It's already priced in. /sarc off

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 19:58 | 2076305 chunga
chunga's picture

Sorry to spam out this thread. I'll wait until the next banking scandal post (shouldn't be long...lol) and put a link so it won't be so spammy and off-topicky.

I just love it to pieces.

Link goes to Hamlet pdf embeds. Advertising Forbidden. No Pay-Per-Click.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 20:57 | 2076505 antisepticWipe
antisepticWipe's picture

BOA has AIDS

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:23 | 2076575 AmericanBulldog77
AmericanBulldog77's picture

1st Rule of AIDS Club is Don't Talk about AIDS Club. But, they certainly do spread Financial AIDS.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:28 | 2076588 chunga
chunga's picture

As Gary might say on Team America - World Police:

"Are there any terrorist plots on Bank Against America out there?"

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:33 | 2076597 antisepticWipe
antisepticWipe's picture

Lick my butt and suck on my balls... Amerika fuck yeah!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:35 | 2076604 AmericanBulldog77
AmericanBulldog77's picture

Durka Durka Mohammed Jihad

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 01:31 | 2077110 Last_2_Sense
Last_2_Sense's picture

Pussies don't like dicks, because pussies get fucked by dicks. But dicks also fuck assholes, assholes that just want to shit on everything. Pussies may think they can deal with assholes their way. But the only thing that can fuck an asshole is a dick,, with some balls. The problem with dicks is that sometimes they fuck too much, or fuck when it isn't appropriate. And it takes a pussy to show'em that, but some times pussies get so full of shit they become assholes themselves, because pussies are only and inch and a half away from assholes. I don't know much in this crazy, crazy world, but I do know that if you don't let us fuck this asshole,,, we are gonna have our dicks and our pussies all covered in shit.

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 07:01 | 2077326 falak pema
falak pema's picture

there is poetry in porno-scatology?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 21:30 | 2076593 antisepticWipe
antisepticWipe's picture

On a long enough timeline everyone with economical aids' survival rate drops to zero.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!