No, It Is Not Just The Chinese New Year

Tyler Durden's picture


The one indicator which the Chinese Politburo can not fudge: power production and hence: demand, speaks volumes about the true state of China's economy.

Your rating: None

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:38 | 2302184 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

After the "earth quake" around year end, things are collapsing.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 23:46 | 2302695 ACP
ACP's picture

Hey, where's the seasonal adjustment?

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 05:45 | 2302889 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

Who needs seasonal adjustment when that power production = + 7% per year... 


that graph excludes growing cleantech, so its bullish. 

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 08:42 | 2303097 Badabing
Badabing's picture

did we forget the Olympics? could this be the reason for the ripple.

2008:The government is planning drastic measures.

This does not mean that the air will not get cleaner this month. Large numbers of personal vehicles, as well as cargo trucks that do not have Beijing license plates, will be taken off the roads in efforts to reduce car pollution. Additionally, the hyperactive construction with huge numbers of buildings scheduled for completion or undergoing rushed renovation before the Games will stop completely late this month when a citywide construction freeze goes into effect

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 06:19 | 2302913 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

I would have thought everything is "fudge-able" in this day and age...unfortunately.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:38 | 2302185 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Not necessary. Maybe slave work is a la mode these days.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 01:06 | 2302767 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

China's problem is that they have too many slaves.

Even the most brutal dictator cannot fully control billion slaves.


Ever work for fortune 50 and got lost amongst 100,000 employees? China is like working for a company with 1,000,000 employees and 10,000 Vice Presidents.

Most Chinese are so detached from C-suite that they will be just doing life as with just under different management.


But US is going to make sure Chinese hard labor work is going to become worthless as dollar loses value. Same shit with Japan. MAke them think they got rich Shanghai condos worth more than Manhattan condos, but as soon as they challenge the #1 spot, here comes great Chinese depression and Jews will buy Shanghai on the cheap again.


Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:39 | 2302187 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

uhmm.. the x-axis spacing seems off.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:40 | 2302193 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

It isn't.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:55 | 2302242 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

according to andyWei, this last downturn is due to unseasonably warm weather

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 21:01 | 2302437 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Don't worry, it's transitory.

Like a Gamma Ray burst....

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 23:30 | 2302670 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

OMG...a Yooper opining on the markets and global finance.  I am in awe.

Are you the first?

Normally, the rest of us think of Yoopers as being only concerned with deer camp, drinking, snow shoeing, and listening to Gordon Lightfoot albums. 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 23:39 | 2302679 CrazyCooter
Fri, 03/30/2012 - 00:39 | 2302746 RichardP
RichardP's picture

Thank you for that, Cooter.  A song I never get tired of listening to.

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 02:19 | 2302810 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

There's not a lot, but growing quicker.

And not everyone is dumb enough to go onto Lake Superior loaded down with iron ore in October.

I prefer going out there with shiny stuff, what little I can afford!

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 02:21 | 2302815 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Plus, I ain't too dumb.  I went Tech, No Logical University!

Dat dere gotta be wirt sumpin....

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:57 | 2302243 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Whats up with the shipping indices BDI & BSI lately ? Anybody here understand the notable rebound in the last month ? Are those also impacted by LTRO liquidity ? 

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:59 | 2302255 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

Dead cats bounce.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 20:01 | 2302261 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Not related directly to the topic but the Fed's liquidity has not helped Nat Gas prices and wondering how these Nat Gas suppliers are able to sustain themselves at these ultra low prices ? Lately coal companies getting hammered too !! Anybody hear of bankruptcies / cash flow crises in that arena ??

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 20:07 | 2302276 walküre
walküre's picture

Ben can't fudge demand for resources. Speculating on NG or Coal made sense when the economies were humming. But now demand is falling off a cliff and speculators aren't touching either NG or Coal with a ten foot pole. There's no shortage in either of these two commodities.

In a sense, the collapse in NG prices is reflective of real demand and the real economy. Same for coal.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 21:33 | 2302490 Maos Dog
Maos Dog's picture

Nat gas and coal are not rising. This means that printed money is not bidding for these resources, and labor cost to produce and supply electricty (linemen, etc) should be going down in theory.

Why are my electric rates rising? Is this local to my area? Anyone point me to some electric usage charts?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 23:31 | 2302655 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

RE:"Why are my electric rates rising? Is this local to my area? Anyone point me to some electric usage charts?"

too much regulation? Opacities in monopoly industries are always cheaper/best kept as a private matter, or so I've been told; over and over and over and over and over... if the upcoming quarter's numbers don't keep rising, anyway

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 23:47 | 2302698 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

If you mean the US, this will get you started ...



Fri, 03/30/2012 - 00:08 | 2302715 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture there anywhere else, really?

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 01:37 | 2302787 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

oh yes GoinFawr, there are. Only,we get the crap after it's been well and thoroughly masticated and perfected upon y'all. No way to resist it here!

obfuscation is the norm in India. As are Kleptocratic thuggocracies at every level.


Thu, 03/29/2012 - 23:40 | 2302683 Nels
Nels's picture


Why are my electric rates rising? Is this local to my area? Anyone point me to some electric usage charts?

Yes, it's local.  Tonights local news out of NYC told about rate reductions due to low nat gas prices for several of the local utilities.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 23:53 | 2302702 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

The lady you might want to start to follow isLeslie Glustrom.



Fri, 03/30/2012 - 09:22 | 2303214 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

My power supplier made a big bet on solar energy. That didn't work out so well. Someone's got to pay for that bad bet: consumers.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 21:43 | 2302507 Desert Irish
Desert Irish's picture

Not reflective of real demand at all. Coals getting hammered because it's cheaper to use NG and power production is switching over. NG is in freefall essentially due to mild weather and the increase in fracking. Natural gas consumption has remained pretty much static since the 70's at around 21 million cubic feet with a slight increase in 2011 to 24 million despite having one of the mildest winters on record. We are producing a lot more of it that's all.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 22:00 | 2302542 Maos Dog
Maos Dog's picture

But yet Electric rates are rising 20% per year here:

And demand is flat for several years now from the above chart in the thead.

makes no sense.


Thu, 03/29/2012 - 22:15 | 2302563 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Look, it's real simple.  I'll lay it out:


1) coal and gas fuel electrical power plants.

2) Chevy Volts charge from said power plants' output.

3) Chevy Volts have since all burned to the ground.

4) No more Chevy Volts to plug in.

5) Demand from power plants now down huge.

6) duh!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 23:59 | 2302659 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

uS version:

'TOo much regulations, running through my brain. T0o much regulations, driving me insane. I screw the whole world six times over; now you want natural gas, just bend over. (Cha)...I screw the whole world six times over; now you want natural gas well bend over(hoo!)... Over you, over me, over busybodies, over him, over her, over everybody. TOo much regulations, running through my brain. TOo much regulations, driving me insane."-Sting(ed.)


'TOo much regulations, runnings through my brain. T0o much regulations, drivings me insane. I sccrew the whole world six times oval; now you want natural gas, just bends oval. (Cha)...I sccrew the whole world six times oval; now you want natural gas well bends oval(hoo!)... Oval you, oval me, oval busybodies, oval him, oval her, oval everybody. TOo much regulations, runnings through my brain. TOo much regulations, drivings me insane."-Sting(ed.)

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 06:31 | 2302918 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

It was sarc for you a-holes that junked me...

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 23:43 | 2302688 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

I link to an excellent comment on this subject over on another thread ...



Thu, 03/29/2012 - 21:41 | 2302503 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Same bounce in the BDI

Looking like the iceberg that sank the Chitanic

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 05:32 | 2302879 maxcody
maxcody's picture

The ones I have shot did not bounce but now I just shoot grakles and starlings.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 21:22 | 2302468 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

An important general point in an environment of scarcity.

Production of electricity will equal consumption.

It does not have to equal demand.  Demand does not equal consumption.

In a scarcity environment, demand will exceed consumption.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 23:42 | 2302656 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

As history has proven time and again, authoritarian theft and resource control by communist gangsters ensures scarcity will be the driving economic collector for the elite's largesse.

If it works in China why wouldn't the Marxists try it here?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 22:35 | 2302599 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

That's one ugly chart for the biggest BRIC in the wall.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:39 | 2302190 malikai
malikai's picture

Prepare the printing presses.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 21:23 | 2302469 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Do they print Yuan on rice paper?  Is it time to go long on rice?

Fri, 03/30/2012 - 09:25 | 2303225 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Is rice paper edible? My wife is Chinese (born in Shanghai) and once got some 'candy' that was wrapped in a transparent film that melted in one's mouth. I consumed two altogether, but didn't like the taste. I returned to my normal, balanced diet: milk chocolate, dark chocolate and white chocolate.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:43 | 2302197 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Those 60 million empty homes need no electricity?

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 20:00 | 2302259 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It means they aren't building another 60 million empty homes.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:43 | 2302199 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Can we at least get a nice correction in the indexes on China demand then? I am afraid many of my fellow countrymen are undernvested due to the fact they are just starting to get back to work. Maybe bernank can set a new target of 1250 followed by the moonshot.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:43 | 2302200 davey
davey's picture

Who's going to buy the 6 trillion in US treasuries coming due over the next 4 years

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:47 | 2302213 walküre
walküre's picture

You're not really asking that question, are you? The Fed of course! China has been selling USTs and buying German infrastructure and companies left, right and center. The Chinese are not just label queens, they're buying the label, factory, workers and all!

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:53 | 2302222 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

Uncle Ben for 70% and muppets for 30%.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 19:57 | 2302244 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You are. I hope you have some gold now because by the time uncle Ben gets done printing the green back won't buy anything.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!