Nomura Presents The Fair-Value Of European Currencies In A Euro Breakup Scenario

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Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:46 | 1947154 Mongo
Mongo's picture

Bullish on bananas!

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:49 | 1947175 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Looks like the Nordicks will rule the EU.

Imagine what this would do to the FX world? Incomprehensible volatility. Can't happen. Sabers have been drawn for far lesser reasons.

Archduke Ferdie moment might be getting closer.



Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:00 | 1947218 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

All is well on this fair evening

As the white waves crash ashore

The night is quiet, there are no worries

Nor any Nordic boats

-Irish poem

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:05 | 1947236 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

If you are not happy with immoral hazard and psychopaths taking over America, make sure to register Republican to vote in the primary in January from these states. If you know anyone who lives in these states talk to them of Ron Paul.

Don’t speak of end the Fed because most don’t understand meaning of this, but that inflation in gas and food are caused by money printing that he will work to stop.

January 3, 2012 Iowa (caucus)

January 10, 2012 New Hampshire (primary)

January 21, 2012 South Carolina (primary)

January 31, 2012 Florida (primary)

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:11 | 1947258 redpill
redpill's picture

Hilarious new Ron Paul ad:

Big Dog, bitchez!

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:23 | 1947301 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Ron Paul must really be scaring the MSM. CNN is actually reporting about radioactive water leaking from fukishima instead.

George Will, a guy I used to repect dropped the "spoiler" tag on the good doctor this weekend. TPTB want Obama to win, (heavens to betsy we got Clinton stumping for gingrich) And obama will win, but the only "spoiling" Ron Paul is going to do is expose the narrative to the sheep who think their votes count.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:23 | 1947302 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Call on Paul


Mon, 12/05/2011 - 17:11 | 1948225 boiltherich
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That is a commercial I can get behind funding, I just watched it and sent his campaign $100 though I am pretty broke.  I just wish everyone here who claims to support Paul would do the same.

By the way, I note that last evening the Obama Show/Nightly infotainment on NBC they had a top story about new poll numbers in a republican poll taken before Cain dropped out, Gingrich at 23% Paul at 21% and Romney at 18% and then they went on to do extensive talking about Gingrich and a little talking about Romney but not a single word about Ron Paul even though he is neck and neck with the leader of the pack.  I can't wait till he pulls ahead of Gingrich after Newt blows up his own campaign yet again (only matter of time before his own sex skeletons come tumbling out of the closet or he sticks his feet in his mouth) but it will be interesting when Paul is in first place and yet the MSM will not mention his name.   

Now I am going online to make my own FORMER DEMOCRAT FOR RON PAUL bumper sticker.

Tue, 12/06/2011 - 01:40 | 1949924 oldman
oldman's picture

Dear Whistleblower,

You may vote for this oldman, because he will not vote again this time unless your precious ron paul has the huevos to run as an independent, which he doubts.

Ron sounds good on the one or two issues that he captures the 'imagination' on, but honestly, he is very weak on the more important issues and certainly has little capacity for diplomacy, energy policy, habitat protection, and what we do in the next twenty years about our declining share of the world's markets.

I've listened to him for ten years now and though he raises my energy level with his 'can do' rhetoric, he hasn't had the balls as of yet to step out and take the chance that his own VERY CORRUPT party will cannabalize him.

I'm quite weary of reading all of the 'rah, rah, rah' comments by people who still seem to believe in the broken, bullshit system that you believe can be fixed by a simple lazyman's fluffy dream that your fucking vote is even counted.

I apologize for my crude language and do not mean to be personal but I have been 16 hours walking today and thinking about the hopeless condition of a nation that can only talk of change by mentally mastabatory process of walking once into a polling booth at their leisure and plugging their protest into a computer that has been corrupted by the same stupid broken machine

I'm sorry , but I can't even apologize properly     a very tired oldman

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:05 | 1947237 falak pema
falak pema's picture

damn vikings and drakars...

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:03 | 1947232 macholatte
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Some have said that the Nordic Royals are an extreme power in the banking cartel with roots that go back hundreds, maybe thousands of years and were instrumental in the set-up of central banking and the House of Rothchild. Those bloodlines are comingled with all Royals in Europe.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:15 | 1947277 Fluffybunny
Fluffybunny's picture

Yes, the Rotchild's are our lackeys.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:35 | 1947389 GNWT
GNWT's picture

Correct, the Queen of the Netherlands is one of the founders of the Bilderburg Group.

Almost Nordic

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:37 | 1947394 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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European Royalty is one big inbred family.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 17:00 | 1948180 Mauibrad
Mauibrad's picture

Not EU...Europe.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 17:30 | 1948297 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

How can the Euro be at 1.34, when all of the constituents are way below it, except one, and the one that is above it is only just a little bit above?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:52 | 1947191 kaiten
kaiten's picture

And printing presses.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:47 | 1947164 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Cool chart.

A long while ago, I think it was Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the UK Telegraph, ran stories that some Germans were only accepting euro notes with the code number signifying that they were printed in Germany.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:50 | 1947178 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Below the 'AAA' countries, Belgium is 'best of the rest'.

Not bad for little Belgium, considering.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:43 | 1947426 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture



Belgium Z

Greece Y

Germany X

Spain V

France U

Ireland T

Italy S

Luxembourg *

Netherlands P

Austria N

Portugal M

Finland L

Slovenia H

Slovakia E

Cyprus G

Malta F

Estonia D

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 15:17 | 1947646 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

I mostly have X. All the others I use to buy stuff. Gresham´s law!

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 15:22 | 1947673 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

... could be wise, to use the Y´s first.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 16:44 | 1948079 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

Most of the EUR 100 notes that I get here in Germany are from Italy. I try to get rid of them ASAP!

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 17:00 | 1948182 Peter K
Peter K's picture

Always look to see the letter on the Euro. For some reason, can not get an X for the life of me. Anywhere. Glad I am not the only one with this problem.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 16:10 | 1947906 turtle777
turtle777's picture

This has been debunked, even Ambrose admitted to it. I can't find the link right now, but the gist is this:

The X only signifies that Germany commissioned those notes to be printed. It does NOT mean it was actually printed in Germany. Theoretically, Germany could commission notes to be printed in France.

Many smaller EU countries don't print their notes themselves, so they would commission notes to be printed in Germany. The Euros would show the country code, but the printing of a German facility (e.g. P for Giesecke & Devrient in Munich.)

In short, the country code is not useful to determine "good" or "bad" Euros.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 16:56 | 1948149 Peter K
Peter K's picture

Hugh Hendry noticed this phenomenon in Germany too.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:48 | 1947166 Manthong
Manthong's picture

I thought they solved all those pesky problems.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:48 | 1947167 RobotTrader
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If we close up today.

NYSE Summation Index will turn back up.

Mo-Mo players will have no choice but to chase stocks again on the long side.

Gloomsayers will be watching the tape climb up and up with their jaws agape.


Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:59 | 1947212 mktsrmanipulated
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Robo trader is your real name joe kernan or david faber.....keep breaking out the pom poms

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:32 | 1947365 GNWT
GNWT's picture

Markets - Robo is correct, do not fight the tape, higher highs and higher lows mean buy, the trend is your friend.

Pay attention, short your instrument on two hourly lower lows, lower highs or three, plenty of time for all this.

All counter moves are like the movie Jackass, just a matter of how high we lift the garbage bag before we drop it.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:33 | 1947371 GNWT
GNWT's picture

You go...

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:48 | 1947169 The Reich
Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:49 | 1947172 Irish66
Irish66's picture

just 4 more days of this, you promised

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:49 | 1947174 DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

I'm bullish cheap Greek holidays!

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:53 | 1947197 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture


Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:51 | 1947187 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

So if the EU broke down right now, everyone but Portugal would have a stronger currency than the dollar? I saw this on CNBC momentarily. I thought they said this was broken down in Euros, not dollars. This would be in comparison to dollars right? IIGS would have a stronger currency than us? I must be seeing something wrong.


Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:52 | 1947192 Nothing real here
Nothing real here's picture

The ratios are relative to the current Euro, not the dollar.  Ergo, the German DM would be 36% stronger than it currently is within the  Eurozone.   You have to believe the DM would be much higher relative to the dollar. 

France and Austria would also be stronger.  Club Med would be much weaker. 


Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:56 | 1947198 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Wow you answered my question one minute after my post (on purpose or by accident). Edit: Nevermind, you answered my question in your post.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 16:48 | 1948096 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

No the ratio is how many USD you get for one COUNTRY-EUR.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 16:55 | 1948146 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

Fair value for a new Greek currency, whether reviving the drachma or not, would be almost a 60% depreciation, to around 57 U.S. cents, he said.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:52 | 1947194 falak pema
falak pema's picture

so do the germans have the longest ones? This should please M****! True 6" guaranteed or refunded. She is not very demanding. Which will make her very euro compatible. Difficult times for all Euro males, no moules frites every day, no Trappist beer! No chardonnay and pinot noir!

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:55 | 1947203 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Chimay is good shit too.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:55 | 1947204 mktsrmanipulated
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ES keeps rallying but euro doesn't.....cant wait till those fucking algo scumbags eat it

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:56 | 1947205 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Macy's now printing 3-yr. highs.

Where is the recession?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:12 | 1947260 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

The recession is in the real world.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:22 | 1947297 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bernanke shops at Macy's!

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 14:19 | 1947289 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

You're braindead.
How your exclamation corellates with topic?

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:56 | 1947206 aleph0
aleph0's picture



So rather than letting nature take it's course by reverting back to the Legacy Currencies,  the Euro will live on with about a 25% devaluation IMO.

This  would  conveniently put it at  ca.  1:1 with the USD.

Coincidence ?

... it would have been interesting to feature the USD and GBP into that graph
... and of course Gold.


Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:59 | 1947213 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

Irrelevant.  They obviously haven't heard yet that Merkozy kissed the Euro and made it well.

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 13:59 | 1947214 achmachat
achmachat's picture

As always.. the lovely "island" of Luxembourg simply doesn't exist!

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