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Nomura's Koo Plays The Pre-Blame Game For The Pessimism Ahead

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While his diagnosis of the balance sheet recessionary outbreak that is sweeping global economies (including China now he fears) is a useful framework for understanding ZIRP's (and monetary stimulus broadly) general inability to create a sustainable recovery, his one-size-fits-all government-borrow-and-spend to infinity (fiscal deficits during balance sheet recessions are good deficits) solution is perhaps becoming (just as he said it would) politically impossible to implement. In his latest missive, the Nomura economist does not hold back with the blame-bazooka for the mess we are in and face in 2012. Initially criticizing US and now European bankers and politicians for not recognizing the balance sheet recession, Koo takes to task the ECB and European governments (for implementing LTRO which simply papers over the cracks without solving the underlying problem of the real economy suggesting bank capital injections should be implemented immediately), then unloads on the EBA's 9% Tier 1 capital by June 2012 decision, and ends with a significant dressing-down of the ratings agencies (and their 'ignorance of economic realities'). While believing that Greece is the lone profligate nation in Europe, he concludes that Germany should spend-it-or-send-it (to the EFSF) as capital flight flows end up at Berlin's gates. Given he had the holidays to unwind, we sense a growing level of frustration in the thoughtful economist's calm demeanor as he realizes his prescription is being ignored (for better or worse) and what this means for a global economy (facing deflationary deleveraging and debt minimization).

 

Nomura, Richard Koo:

Pessimism ushers in 2012; outcome will depend on policy response

January 17, 2012

The year 2011, which began amid general optimism, was quickly transformed into a year of trial and tribulation by a number of natural and man-made disasters. There is no shortage of problems facing the global economy in 2012. Whether this initial economic pessimism turns to optimism will depend to a large extent on the national policy response.

 

Conditions in the eurozone took a sudden turn for the worse in 2011 H2, and the situation there has yet to improve in spite of ten summits in the last 12 months.

 

In addition, the banking crisis sparked by the eurozone’s problems has sharply curbed the risk tolerance of European financial institutions, which have traditionally been active in emerging markets. The resulting outflow of capital from these regions is starting to adversely affect economies outside the eurozone.

 

Apart from the problems in Europe, economic activity is decelerating in China and India, where policymakers are working to rein in inflation. Some areas of China are facing a deflation—not yet a collapse—of the real estate bubble leading to balance sheet recession-like conditions.

 

Economic conditions in Japan and the US are relatively stable by comparison. But the governments of both countries are moving towards fiscal consolidation at a time when the private sector is trying to clean up its own balance sheet. If the private and public sectors attempt to deleverage simultaneously at a time of zero interest rates, the risk is that the economy will fall into a deflationary spiral.

ECB’s 3-yr fund supply operation has been effective…

This report will focus on developments in the eurozone. Under the ECB’s Long Term Repo Operation (LTRO), announced by incoming president Mario Draghi last December, the Bank agreed to supply an unlimited quantity of three-year funds at an interest rate of 1%. The program reassured eurozone market participants by substantially reducing the risk of sudden financial institution failures due to liquidity problems.

 

The latest government bond auctions for Italy and Spain also suggest the ECB has succeeded for now in preventing the worst-case scenario of a continued rise in bond yields for both countries. This success also indicates that at least some of the funds supplied by the ECB have flowed into the government debt markets of Europe’s periphery. That, in turn, has reassured market participants, just as the Bank envisioned.

But does not offer fundamental solution to the problem

That noted, I think the LTRO is largely a means of buying time and does little to address the underlying issues.

 

Although the recent government bond auctions went relatively smoothly, interest rates in these countries remain fairly high, and a catalyst could send them higher yet.

 

More important, most of the funds supplied by the ECB remain with the Bank in the form of deposits and have not flowed into the real economy.

 

Mr. Draghi has argued that banks with deposits at the ECB are not necessarily the same institutions that borrowed under the LTRO. Still, the heavy buildup of funds within the ECB is a sign that Europe’s banks do not trust each other and that the broader financial system remains beset with doubts and fears.

LTRO may rescue financial system but cannot save real economy

Many European banks must also roll over substantial amounts of debentures between now and spring. These institutions have stockpiled funds borrowed from the ECB to protect against the eventuality of being unable to roll over their debt.

 

Italian banks’ heavy use of the LTRO is attributable at least partly to the fact that they have the largest amount of debt that must be refinanced over the next several months.

 

But the decision of private banks to use funds obtained from the ECB as “back-up” for refinancing their own debt means those funds are doing nothing to help overcome the recession in the real economy.

 

While the current situation is clearly preferable to one in which the Bank had stood by and done nothing, it appears the LTRO program will do little to spur a recovery in eurozone economies.

LTRO should be viewed in similar light as Fed’s QE1

In that sense, the LTRO can be viewed in a similar light as the Fed’s QE1. The Fed supplied large amounts of liquidity under QE1 in the wake of the Lehman Brothers collapse. The primary purpose of those funds, however, was to prevent financial institutions from failing due to an inability to access market funding.

 

The banks effectively used funds borrowed from the Fed to meet payment obligations. The money was not used to fund new loans.

 

Consequently, neither bank lending nor the money supply grew despite all the liquidity injected under QE1, and inflation and growth in the real economy remained lackluster.

 

The ECB’s LTRO is also designed to prevent a liquidity shortage in the banking system. It would be a mistake to assume that funds lent under the program will have a positive impact on the economy or inflation by boosting lending or the money supply.

Biggest bottleneck: EBA’s tough new capital rules

The next question is, What is preventing the funds supplied by the ECB from flowing into the real economy and improving economic conditions? Although there are a number of answers, the biggest obstacle from a policy perspective is the European Banking Authority’s tough new capital rules.

 

The EBA has demanded that European banks raise core Tier 1 capital to 9% of risk-weighted assets by June 2012. None of the policies unveiled in response to the crisis has been so counterproductive.

 

A tightening of bank capital requirements would not create major problems in an ordinary world without a financial crisis. If only a handful of banks are in trouble, asking those institutions to raise more capital would not lead to major macro-level problems because other financial institutions would be willing to supply capital to those banks or increase lending in their place. But with a financial crisis already in progress and the sector undergoing a systemic crisis, in which a majority of banks face the same problem, demanding higher capital ratios will trigger a destructive credit crunch, as I have argued previously.

 

This is because sources of additional capital during a systemic crisis are extremely limited, and for many institutions raising capital, if possible at all, can be very costly. Expensive capital, in turn, will only weaken these banks’ financial strength.

 

As a practical matter, the only way banks can satisfy the new capital requirements if raising capital is difficult is by reducing the denominator in the capital ratio: total assets. If all banks try to do that at the same time, the result will be a destructive credit crunch.

Adoption of BIS rules sparked severe Japanese credit crunch in 1997

Although Japan’s bubble burst in 1990, it was not until October 1997 that the economy experienced a serious credit contraction.

 

The decision by the Ministry of Finance’s Banking Bureau to unveil the details of new BIS-based capital rules on 1 October that year—a time when most Japanese banks were struggling under the weight of bad debts—triggered a destructive credit crunch.

 

Discussions about the new BIS standards had been ongoing for a number of years, but it was the announcement of the specifics on new rules in October 1997, when the bubble’s collapse had left Japanese banks in an extremely weakened state, that prompted a major credit contraction.

 

At that time, bank branch managers were ordered by their head offices to cut lending by 10% each half-year. The Japanese economy duly entered its worst-ever postwar recession, contracting for five consecutive quarters according to data at the time.

 

The post-October 1997 situation in Japan bears a striking resemblance to today’s Europe, where much tougher capital requirements for banks struggling in the wake of a burst housing bubble have triggered a credit crunch.

Japan was quick to respond to credit contraction

However, the Japanese government was quick to respond to the credit crunch. Just two months later, in December 1997, the government began discussing a capital injection, and by the following February an act providing for a ¥13trn facility to recapitalize the banking system had been passed into law. This was just four months after the credit contraction began.

 

The first round of injections, carried out in March 1998, amounted to only ¥1.8trn because the process represented uncharted territory for both the government and the program’s recipients. Still, it helped prevent conditions from worsening. A second round of capital injections in March 1999 totaling ¥7.5trn succeeded in ending the credit crunch once and for all.

 

In Europe, the credit contraction became a pressing issue after discussions commenced last summer on the so-called 9% rule. Yet there have been few calls for a revision of this rule or for an early government injection of capital into the banking system.

Japan had no choice but to adopt BIS rules

Similarly, few in Japan in 1997 argued in favor of modifications to the BIS capital rules. This was attributable to a belief that, at a time when banks around the world were moving to adopt the 8% rule (4% Tier 1 + 4% Tier 2 capital), allowing Japanese banks to continue operating with less capital would cast doubt on their creditworthiness, making it even more difficult for them to access market funding.

 

Japanese banks faced heavy scrutiny from overseas investors at the time and were forced to pay a “Japan premium” to borrow money. Some banks were completely shut out of the funding markets for a time and were forced to borrow money from nonfinancial companies within their keiretsu to meet their payment obligations.

 

Under such conditions, ignoring the BIS rules was simply not an option for Japan. The government managed to keep the credit crunch from getting worse in spite of the new rules by injecting public money into the banking system.

New eurozone capital rules will lead directly to credit contraction

The new international capital requirements proposed by the BIS, known as Basel III, call on banks to raise their core capital ratios to 7% by 2019. The EBA, meanwhile, has demanded another 2% on top of that while insisting that banks comply by June 2012, offering no logical basis for its position. Nor has the ongoing credit crunch in the eurozone prompted any discussion of a government recapitalization of the banking system.

 

Even a 7% target would have been hard for banks to meet, which is why they were given until 2019 to comply. The EBA’s demand that banks raise core capital ratios to 9% by June 2012 in the midst of a systemic crisis seems spectacularly ill-advised. I think it a miracle if Europe does not experience a full-blown credit contraction.

EU’s response has aggravated crisis

 This 9% rule effectively prescribes the size of European banks’ balance sheets. This means banks will not be able to increase lending no matter how much liquidity the ECB supplies, effectively rendering any monetary accommodation by the ECB powerless to stimulate the economy.

 

The EBA’s 9% rule may help in preventing the next crisis, but it will do nothing to resolve the current one—in fact, it will make it much worse.

 

Indeed, much of the EU’s policy response to the ongoing crisis appears to be directed at preventing the next crisis and has actually aggravated the current situation. Prime examples in this regard are the EBA’s 9% rule and the German government’s insistence on fiscal austerity and the adoption of balanced budget amendments.

EBA’s 9% rule should be scrapped

The question then is, What should be done? The quickest, easiest answer is to scrap the EBA’s 9% rule and return to the internationally approved Basel III, under which banks are required to raise their core capital ratios to 7% by 2019. I think this change alone would go a long way towards restoring the effectiveness of monetary policy and easing the credit crunch precipitated by the 9% rule.

 

European banks forced to shrink their balance sheets to comply with the 9% rule are cutting back on lending and selling assets around the world—including the emerging economies—and that has weighed heavily on the global economy.

 

Because the victims of the 9% rule are not limited to the eurozone, the governments of Japan, the US, and the emerging nations should pressure the EBA to withdraw it.

If banks cannot meet lower capital targets, public funds should be injected

If lenders have difficulty meeting even the lower 7% capital requirement, the authorities should inject fresh capital into the banking system. Government capital infusions during a credit crunch caused by a shortage of capital have a leveraged effect, and the economic impact is correspondingly large.

 

If banks’ inability to meet a 7% capital requirement is at the heart of the credit contraction, a capital injection would support lending equal to 1/0.07 = 14.3 times the value of the government’s investment. In my view this represents a very effective use of taxpayer money.

 

A resumption of bank lending due to the capital injection would also boost the money supply, thereby amplifying the impact of monetary accommodation by the ECB.

 

The injection of government funds into a large number of banks would also ease the sense of mutual mistrust that exists among lenders. Japan’s initial ¥1.8trn injection of capital was insufficient and failed to prevent Long-Term Credit Bank of Japan and Nippon Credit Bank from going under. But it seems the ¥7.5trn infusion conducted in March 1999 did much to alleviate mutual mistrust among lenders.

 

In summary, I think lowering the core capital requirement from the EBA’s 9% to the BIS’s 7% and, if necessary, injecting government funds into the banks would go a long way towards resolving the financial crisis in the eurozone.

Credit downgrades stand in way of capital injections

While the EBA rule could be changed at the stroke of a pen if the authorities wanted, capital injections would require fiscal measures and would lead, however briefly, to larger fiscal deficits.

 

But, in my view, S&P’s reckless downgrades of eurozone sovereigns have complicated any attempts to provide fiscal stimulus.

 

For more than a decade I have been warning that those rating agencies which do not understand balance sheet recessions could downgrade countries in the midst of such recessions based solely on economic weakness and the size of their budget deficits and jeopardize these countries’ ability to carry out the fiscal stimulus needed during this kind of recession. The recent actions by Standard & Poor’s are a case in point.

 

On 13 January the agency announced it was downgrading nine eurozone countries and was lowering the ratings of four of those—Italy, Spain, Cyprus, and Portugal—by two notches. France and Austria lost their AAA ratings and are now rated AA+.

S&P downgrade reminiscent of CDO episode

This major ratings action recalls the agency’s decision three years ago to suddenly and drastically lower its ratings on a large number of AAA rated collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) containing subprime loans. It also underlines the perfunctory nature of the ratings themselves.

 

Making matters worse is the fact that, apart from fiscally profligate Greece, the widening fiscal deficits in most eurozone countries are attributable to the balance sheet recessions touched off by the bubble’s collapse. A government reluctance to apply fiscal stimulus under such conditions will only exacerbate matters. Eventually the resulting economic weakness can actually cause the fiscal deficit to increase despite determined government efforts to reduce it (witness Japan in 1997 and 2001).

 

The statement accompanying the Standard & Poor’s decision, however, indicated that no consideration had been given to such risks. It merely repeated the disturbingly orthodox view that fiscal consolidation would result in lower budget deficits, which in turn should help the economy.

Do we treat patient’s pneumonia or put him on diet?

This is akin to a doctor telling a patient suffering from pneumonia to go on a diet and get more exercise. While exercise is important, it assumes a healthy patient. If the patient is sick, he must build up his strength until he is physically capable of exercising again.

 

No matter how overweight a patient with pneumonia might be, the doctor’s first task is to give him the treatment he needs to fight the disease. After all, the pneumonia patient can die if treatment is delayed for too long.

 

Balance sheet recessions, which occur when businesses and households rush to pay down debt in spite of zero interest rates, are a kind of pneumonia. The only way to treat them is for the government to become the borrower and spender of last resort with fiscal stimulus aimed at propping up aggregate demand.

 

Fiscal deficits during balance sheet recessions are good deficits

 

All fiscal deficits are good deficits during this type of recession. Once public and private investors realize this, I suspect their decisions will no longer be influenced by the views of those rating agencies that do not understand balance sheet recessions.

 

Japanese investors faced an almost identical situation ten years ago. But because they understood the nature of the disease affecting Japan’s economy, they were able to ignore the downgrades by seemingly clueless western rating agencies.

 

The yields on JGBs therefore remained anchored at low levels even as Moody’s downgraded Japan’s credit rating to below that of Botswana. And it was domestic investors’ reasoned behavior that enabled Japan’s economy to emerge finally from the balance sheet recession.

Eurozone investors will eventually learn to ignore rating agencies

In the US, local investors responded to the S&P downgrade of the US government last summer by pushing yields even lower.

 

By last August, many US officials and market participants—including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke—understood the concept of balance sheet recessions, and that helped US markets over the initial shock of the downgrade.

 

In Europe, however, I find few people—including the authorities—understand what a balance sheet recession is. The vast majority are unaware that such a thing even exists, and to some extent that is why the crisis continues to worsen. Since the ongoing balance sheet recession and sovereign downgrades are a first for eurozone investors, their confusion, like that of their predecessors in Japan, is understandable.

 

But I think it is just a matter of time before eurozone investors come to understand this concept and learn to ignore the views of rating agencies operating in ignorance of economic realities.

Funds naturally flow to government bonds when private sector is not borrowing

The private sector seeks to minimize debt during a balance sheet recession, creating an abundance of private savings. That money must be invested somewhere. With the private sector refusing to borrow, it is hardly surprising that those funds would flow into government bonds.

 

That is why long-term government bond yields have fallen as far as they have in Japan, the US, and the UK in spite of massive fiscal deficits. The US and the UK even run large trade deficits.

 

The eurozone also has a unique problem that does not affect Japan, the US, or the UK: no matter how much the Spanish or Irish private sector saves, those funds end up being invested in German government bonds, which are dominated in the same currency. I have previously argued that something must be done to address this capital flight problem that is unique to the eurozone.

 

But with the exception of this region-specific problem of capital flows, I think the more eurozone investors understand that they are dealing with balance sheet recessions, the more the influence of the rating agencies will diminish.

German economy shrinks, but still strong in absolute terms

The slowdown in the German economy has become increasingly pronounced. Data for 2011 Q4 show the economy contracting by 0.25%, with production activity also weaker.

 

In terms of the level of activity, however, the German economy remains robust despite the recent deceleration, with the unemployment rate at a 20-year low of less than 6%. That, in my view, is part of the reason why the German government has been so obstinate in its response to the ongoing crisis.

 

Chancellor Angela Merkel insists that Germany will continue on a path of fiscal consolidation regardless of the downturn in activity. The government is also demanding that other eurozone countries enact balanced budget amendments.

 

Like the EBA’s 9% rule, these actions may help prevent the next crisis, but they do absolutely nothing to address the crisis that is unfolding now. In fact, they make it worse.

What should Germany do?

Given the capital flight problem that is unique to the eurozone—i.e., the fact that southern European savings are invested in German government bonds—what should Germany do? In my view, it needs to borrow the funds flowing in from the periphery and either (1) spend the money itself or (2) channel it via the European Financial Stability Facility or a similar mechanism back into aid for the countries generating those savings. Doing so would make it possible to sustain the income cycle throughout the eurozone and prevent a weakening of the broader eurozone economy.

 

From a macroeconomic perspective, the first is unlikely to happen as long as the German economy remains robust. But the second is worth considering. With yields on short-term German government debt now below zero and long-term yields at historic lows, such policies would be inexpensive to implement as well. Unfortunately, the current German government appears to have no interest in playing such a role.

 

If nothing is done, however, the private savings flowing into Germany from Spain and Ireland will not be spent and will effectively represent a leakage to the broader eurozone income stream. In that sense, Germany’s refusal to serve as the “borrower of last resort” is accelerating the eurozone’s plunge into a deflationary spiral.

Global economy to remain under spell of housing bubble collapse

To summarize, the LTRO unveiled late last year has substantially reduced the risk of bank liquidity shortages or failures. But all the other macroeconomic issues remain, along with the problem of capital adequacy ratios. Nor have any meaningful solutions for those problems been proposed.

 

I therefore expect the eurozone’s problems will continue to weigh on both Japan and the global economy. It appears as though the world economy will remain under the spell of the housing bubble collapse that began in 2007 for some time yet.

 

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Wed, 01/18/2012 - 00:35 | 2073416 dumpster
dumpster's picture

Koo  as in Poo

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 00:41 | 2073426 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The pessimism is only going to get worse globally. We are in for a rough couple of years.

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:08 | 2073470 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

The eurozone is entering terminal cardiac arrest, and the doctors in charge of the patient have decided upon the procedure to follow: endow the patient with defective french PiP breast implants.

Yes, that's the level of idiocy we are witnessing.

 

2 years you say? more like 2 decades.

I predict privateering will be one of the professions that will flourish.

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:13 | 2073495 redpill
redpill's picture

The Goro graphic gave me flashbacks to skipping class so many years ago when the original Mortal Kombat was in its arcade infancy.  Ah the glory days when Volcker was still running the Fed...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 02:00 | 2073581 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Actually one line, towards the end, really captures it. Housing collapse straight ahead.

And housing collapse in ways people cannot understand yet. It is the reason they are being stuffed higher and tighter, higher and tighter into cubicles and cubbyholes. In an increasingly un-stable planet. 

And the elite are going underground. Is that a hint?

Housing collapse, world-wide. Indeed.

ori

/1460-days-ago-ensign-principles-world-view/

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 02:58 | 2073628 respect the cock
respect the cock's picture

You speak English, buttsnake?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 04:36 | 2073701 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hey Troll hole, take it easy. Get a feel of the place first. Your master's did not teach you any subtlety? You'll be jobless in a week.

Look at your handle...such a give-away.

Ignored from here on out.

ori

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 09:41 | 2073952 trav7777
trav7777's picture

all this is economist gibberish.  The future cannot pay the vig on the monetary system and the interest-laden creation of all this debt we equate with money.  Simple as that.

All this talk of "balance sheets" and all these imaginary constructs of the economics profession  amount to a hill of shit.  It's an energy cost-driven recession and it will come to be known as "permanent" in the sense that its time horizon is far longer than any economist is used to in terms of their silly notion of "business cycles."

We will STILL be having this conversation in 5 years and they will still be stumbling around like blind men.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 08:37 | 2073849 Rodolfito
Rodolfito's picture

Yeah, relax. You need a hug or something?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 02:59 | 2073629 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Argh!

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 00:48 | 2073438 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Koo-Koo if he thinks the "system" can be saved by lowering and injecting.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 08:57 | 2073873 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Koo does not understand the process of inflation without credit Creation. Inflation without credit creation works the following way. Money as per Hayek should keep a stable relationship against a basket of commodities in order to satisfy the needs of savers. If money is stable against commodities, the population will buy commodities for current consumption and put the extra into money trusting that they can slowly use the money for future consumption of commodities. If the money does not keep the relationship with commodities, the public will buy the commodities themselves which is "INFLATION BY HOARDING". All of hte sudden commodities will have the current consumption and the future consumption added up in the price structure. The consequence is that the proportion of income which goes for food and energy goes up. This makes the population poorer and diminishes the taxing power of the government. This in turn makes the public more defiant about the money as a good savings medium and forces people to hoard more commodities. This moves price up, makes people poorer, erodes the fiscal situation, increases distrust in currrency, this in a feedback loop which is  a RUN ON TEH CURRENCY. BUY SOFT COMMODITIES.  KOO does not understand that inflation can happen with the multiplier down. If I withdraw my money market fund to buy Wheat commodity fund, there is 0 multiplier, yet it will result in higher basic commodity prices. Many economist do not understand inflation outside of hte multiplier effect.

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:35 | 2073427 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

 

Unholy trousers! The first lines said ''go fish!''  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEo8poVlQrM

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 00:45 | 2073435 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

If only that long scroll-down had been toliet paper...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 00:48 | 2073440 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Just watched Margin Call.  Best stuff so far.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:00 | 2073468 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Agreed.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 00:58 | 2073443 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

Germany cannot afford to steer money 'back' to the periphery because that money would evaporate, going into consumption.  It is the same in the US:  By steering 'stimulus' money to enable the continued employment of teachers, police, and clerks in states with inadequate taxation and exorbitant benefits, the US lost the chance to use that same wasted money on infrastructure construction.  I will admit I have a house on the south coast of Spain.  Most of my neighbors are second or third-home owners.  One family is not.  They are decent people but one of them explained to me a few years ago that the "European" idea of government is different than the American.  "We expect government to provide us with many things."  Yep.  And without any bookkeeping to determine when what they receive exceeds what they pay in, not a stablizing payment but a net payment beyond the business cycle and their own production, so that the benefits come from some magical pot of savings.  I appreciate his instruction and enjoy him as a friend, but his helpful lecture tells the whole story.  Within the US we have our own Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy.  If we continue to hand them easy money via vastly extended benefits or employment their jurisdictions are not willing to pay for, we will never compete effectively with China or Germany.  It is that simple.  The ground-rules of a nation matter.  Will we encourage ankle weights or eager workers.  Will we adequately tax useless finance or allow it to humiliate and drain manufacturing and engineering producers, draining their gains, their competitiveness?  Time will tell for the US, as for Germany.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 18:31 | 2076057 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

Agree with many of your points. But the end point of people stopping consuming is poverty, homelessness and hunger. And the end point of getting rid of teachers, police and healthcare is injury to children and the weak.

America, the world's richest nation, with tens of millions of people on or under the poverty line while ten thousand get to play with their private jets, luxury yachts and Italian sports cars using money made by offshoring factories, technology, capital and American jobs.

"If we continue to hand them easy money via vastly extended benefits or employment their jurisdictions are not willing to pay for, we will never compete effectively with China or Germany. "

Remember that the trillions in "easy money" (as you term it) have not gone to Main St. It has gone to Wall St. This is austerity for the poor, handouts for the rich.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 00:49 | 2073445 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quxUAY0JqQI&feature=g-all-u&context=G22cf270FAAAAAAAAUAA

LIEBYA & SAUDIA OILRABIA - FKN Newz 2011 part 3

Uploaded by on Jan 17, 2012

http://www.fknnewz.com - this is a highlights show made for TV - SKY Channel 203 fri at midnight

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 00:51 | 2073447 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

So, basically, first no Asahi, now no Tuborg.

 

What's next, a mouse in an Elsinore bottle?

Koo, Loo-Koo-Koo, Koo-Koo-Koo Koo!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZCI39NWZ5g

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 00:50 | 2073449 Popo
Popo's picture

The "miracle" that will save Europe is the magical US Federal Reserve, and it's endless supply of free money. (Or what the Fed likes to colorfully call "loans")

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 07:04 | 2073780 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

why don't we call it love? ;-)

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 00:56 | 2073459 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

"The only way to treat them is for the government to become the borrower and spender of last resort"
Koo is officially the mayor of crazytown. He qualifies for next Japanese minister of finance (who last an average of about 9 months).
Life without retail investors. Skynet (TM)

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:17 | 2073503 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Right. He's describing what unfortunately we're heading for: a centrally planned economy with diminishing individual choices. That would solve their headaches

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 04:04 | 2073679 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

That will work well as it worked for ... oh wait.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:03 | 2073475 rosethorn
rosethorn's picture

http://fukushima-diary.com/2011/11/mongolia-banned-importing-cars-from-j...

"Having measured radiation from imported cars, Ulan Bator custom office and nuclear energy department of Mongolia decided to ban importing cars from Japan.

They will start stopping importing cars from Japan as of 11/30/2011.

Mongolian government have been checking imported cars since May,and 18 cars turned to be irradiated."

 

This could put a dent in Japan's trade surplus.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:06 | 2073485 Seer
Seer's picture

"general inability to create a sustainable recovery,"

Anyone who spouts this shit off better start saying HOW this is possible, otherwise they need to stop it (or, if they continue, they should be shot).

Face it, anyone who pines for some sort of "recovery" is asking for another bubble.   It's a preemptive dodging of the responsibility of the inevitable bursting of the (to be subsequent) bubble.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:15 | 2073498 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

My miff with Koo: Japan's experience in 1990 can't be used to model 2012 Euro or USA post-bubble economics . Apples to oranges for many reasons and on many levels. The global economy "pulled Japan out of recession " with ease in the 1990s as USA/Europe went on a binge shopping spree for Japan exports. Japan still is an exporting powerhouse and USA/Euro are not even close on a per capita basis. And on and on. 

2012 is not just a "balance sheet recession". It isn't even a recession. It's a downsizing of the US and Euroland economies. It's a "standard of living depression". 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 01:17 | 2073501 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Koo is trapped by his priors.  It really is that simple.  He is a smart man caught in the Keynesian/Monetarist maze of tautologies and worthless output.

The solution is simple, but is hard to implement- governments should never be allowed to borrow unless it is against infrastructure that collects user fees and bears transferrable property rights in default.  If a government wants to spend, it should be through politically agreed taxation, and this means agreed through passage of taxes and their actual collection.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 02:15 | 2073597 non_anon
non_anon's picture

whatever happened to those green shoots and summer of recovery?

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 06:06 | 2073748 Nachdenken
Nachdenken's picture

Fatah Morgana sighted in the long winter desert

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 03:38 | 2073659 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Richard still acts as if there were actual counter-cyclical elements to monetary and fiscal policy.  In this Richard will always fight for the position that spending alleviates all pain and pain must be avoided at all costs.  In other words, full speed ahead

Richard Koo playing the role of Fat Freddy so strung out he can barely speak...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mickythepixel/4199998095/sizes/o/in/photost...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 03:40 | 2073664 Dorky
Dorky's picture

I have faith in the extreme corruption of the central banks to massively print their way out of this crisis.

This crisis will be averted, regardless of whatever the crisis.

The point is this, the current crisis must be averted to make way for the next crisis.

This crisis is not huge enough to reset things back to zero.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 03:50 | 2073672 Dorky
Dorky's picture

The current market state is like a deja vu of the early 2009 bottoming and the start of a bull trend, where people continue to shout crisis and yet the market continued to rally. Once after several months of market rallying did the economists started to proclaim the recession has ended. Those of us having faith in this group of people missed the biggest part of the market rally. And I believe the same trick is being played again now.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 06:55 | 2073773 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

You are forgetting one caveat here. Historically, the US equity markets have NEVER bottomed before the economy has bottomed. Never.

The US economy IMO will hit a dip sometime this spring/summer with NFPs printing below -150k indicating recession. Only then it will hit rock bottom. And that implies another 15-25% downside for US equities.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 05:43 | 2073734 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I have found an economist who thinks like RobotTrader. He exists!


Why The Stock Market Rally Is FINALLY Starting To Look Real Hale StewartThe Bonddad Blog | Jan. 17, 2012, 6:26 AM | http://static5.businessinsider.com/assets/images/icons/icons.png); background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: initial; color: #f3502a; background-position: -200px 0px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat;" title="views">2,956

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-stock-market-rally-is-finally-starting-to-look-real-2012-1#ixzz1jnkNlIMJ

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 06:53 | 2073771 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Remember that Koo has been SPOT on his analysis since 2006. He kept saying there will be little to no inflation, certainly no hyperinflation. He also said that the entire West will fall into a deflationary zero-growth trap a la Japan unless they start borrowing and spending their brains out. Instead we get calls for austerity and are following in Japan's footsteps.

Exactly like predicted by Koo.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 07:03 | 2073779 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

well, he is prescribing a Keynesian Solution - which in this theory's context it would be correct. We may have a problem, though, since we are using this medicine since decades, for all ailments...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 07:51 | 2073815 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Right, but instead of debating his proposed solution (which may or may not be a good idea) IMO politicians and economists worldwide should take note of his analysis of the symptoms. That's where 90% of the mainstream economists still fail. They fail to realize the long-term effects of the enormous global debt overhang and still claim 'Japan won't happen here' while it's already happening.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 06:59 | 2073776 PORTA PORTA
PORTA PORTA's picture

I have uloaded the full report here...

 

http://www.scribd.com/doc/78619064/NOMURA-Richard-Koo-Pessimism-Ushers-i...

 

PP

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 07:30 | 2073798 partimer1
partimer1's picture

Everyone wants a solution. There is no solution. Debt has to be repaid or defaulted. Or just kept in the book, no repayment, no default, and hope there is a magic glorious day it all be solved. It takes a few decades to get here, and it will take a decade to get out of this. All things we do is just a side show.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 08:34 | 2073844 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Yup, it's all a circle-jerk.  Looking behind the curtain is strickly prohibited.

Salvaging the situation could be an entirely different debate though...

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:28 | 2074046 Element
Element's picture

Koo makes no sense to me, he says way more debt is what's required to get out of way too much debt.

The only thing that matters to him is aggregate demand, and he does not give a shit how it happens.

He's basically a guy who loves bubbles and trying to re-inflate any that pop.

He doesn't seem to grasp the concept of profound private and public insolvency, and what happens if you don't writedown almost everything.

If you writedown real LOSSES on defaulted loans (no, I'm not going to call it a fucking 'haircut') you also then free-up growth for savings, thus providing disposable spending and investment power ... thus demand can then re-generate ... from real growth ... in a real and preductive economy where people have real jobs, and real wages ... (and a reason to work for a living).

And you aren't relying on always creating ridiculous levels of new money (more effing loans) to do it, either.

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:19 | 2074060 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

the author of this article is insane. what world history has he been watching for the past 5 years!?

 

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 10:21 | 2074066 Element
Element's picture

Try 22 years

Wed, 01/18/2012 - 17:32 | 2075819 salsabob
salsabob's picture

It should be interesting that Japan has had stable prices for 30 years and unemployment rates in its 'lost decade' that the US and Europe would kill for.  Laughable credit agency downgrades that had no impact on their interest rates or Yen exchange.

I can understand Koo's frustration, but I rather spend my time raking in my winnings from monetary morons living in the dark ages and looking for hyperinflation just around the corner - " no not that corner, the next corner; well maybe not that corner, but the next corner fer sur!"

Keep in comin, folks!

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