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Non-Manufacturing ISM Prints At 57.3, Higher Than Expectations
In 2011 it was Europe's turn to baffle everyone with bullshit. it still is, but now it has added China (whose Services ISM printed both below and above 50 depending on which data one uses, whether Markit or HSBC), and the US, as it is now the turn of the Services ISM to beat expectations and print at 57.3, on expectations of 56.0, and higher than the prior 56.8 - this beat comes just as the market was expecting a major drop in the aftermath of the big manufacturing ISM miss (Goldman was well below the consensus on today's number), and appears to have printed where it did just to keep the confusion about the true state of the US economy in place as Bernanke vacillates whether or not to proceed with QE3 and when. Curiously, the most important subindex ahead of this Friday's NFP data, the employment indicator, showed a decline from 57.4 to 55.7, just to make an NFP beat all that much more 'surprising.' That said, as Bloomberg's Joe Brusuelas notes, this data is stale and does not reflect the recent gasoline price shock, which as of today has regular has at a 2012 high of $3.767, compared to $3.503 this time last year. Elsewhere, and in keeping with the Mfg ISM data, US Factory Orders slid 1.0% on expectations of an unchanged print from last month's 1.4% increase. Finally, stocks are completely unmoved on all of this data.
Services ISM table:
The always informative respondents' survey :
- "Year-over-year and month-over-month growth continues. Market conditions improved dramatically." (Information)
- "Although customer traffic continues to decline, discretionary
spending per capita is increasing. There is a bit more confidence regarding current economic conditions, spurring on slightly more aggressive marketing to capture new customers and encourage repeat visits." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation) - "Business is generally flat, but showing signs of improvement." (Health Care & Social Assistance)
- "Bracing for impact of fuel price increases on delivered commodity prices." (Educational Services)
- "Optimism is all around, but sales remain sluggish. Activity shows interest, but market [is] very price sensitive." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
- "Signs are building hat things are starting to settle and business is stabilizing. Although orders aren't increasing rapidly, they are steady and consistent instead of the radical swings of the past two years. We hope that this trend will continue." (Retail Trade)
- "Demand [is] gradually increasing for most business sectors." (Wholesale Trade)
And as for deflation...
Commodities Up in Price
Airfares (2); Asphalt; Copper Products; Crab (2); Diesel; #1 Diesel Fuel (3); #2 Diesel Fuel (4); Equipment Repair Parts; Fuel (2); Furniture; Gasoline (2); Gloves; #2 Heating Fuel; Lab Chemicals; Labor; Lumber; Petroleum Based Products (2); Plastic Film; Plastic Products; Poly Film; Steel Products; Tires — Large; and Wire Mesh.
Commodities Down in Price
Cotton Products; Natural Gas; Paper; and Paper Tissues.
Commodities in Short Supply
Crab (2) is the only commodity reported in short supply.
The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
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"Finally, stocks are completely unmoved on all of this data."
On the contrary I expect an explosive (stock) bowel movement to begin shortly. Don your day glow raincoats ladies and germs, the excrement (shit) is expected to (eventually) hit the fan.
I kind of like this one: "as Bernanke vacillates whether or not to proceed with QE3 and when."
QE has bad mjo attached...Rumor is the next bailout will be called What-a-burger.
Um, services..
That includes hookers, right?
CD,
One can only hope! Not because I WANT it to, but to get back to sense of sanity.
DavidC
A lot more people asking; "Do you want fries with that?" Bullish for sure.
Crabs in short supply
Crabs went out of style back in the late 80's, along with syphillis.
Curiously, the most important subindex ahead of this Friday's NFP data, the employment indicator, showed a decline from 57.4 to 55.7,
The prices subindex is telling (+4.9 / +6.0). Perhaps just another challenge for the BLS manipulators to overstate real GDP growth and proclaim near-zero inflation.
Neither am I. Expect a revision downward next month.
"Finally, stocks are completely unmoved on all of this data."
data doesn't move stocks anymore...until...the day that it does, but we have some can kicking and bullshit fake numbers to produce in the meantime.
Jobs weak, inflation growing. Thanks Ben
"Only commodities down in price: 'Cotton Products; Natural Gas; Paper; and Paper Tissues.'"
Paper tissues (cheap ones) have gone up from 35p/box to 68p/box in the last year, most of the rise in the last month or two!
I'm gonna make some USDollar themed toliet paper.
A sure hit at Zerohedge, the Federal Reserve, AND Iran for sure!
Holy shit look at inventories and prices!!!!!
Massive inventory builds and 4.9% increase in prices paid. Remember all the manufacturing beats in the past few months. That ends up as inventory that needs to be sold. This isn't going to end well.
Channel stuffing helps give you good numbers for a quarter or two but when that inventory stagnates the profit loss mounts.
Everything is BS to try and keep the economy on life support until Obama or Romney is elected. Then the the train leaves the tracks and the resulting nightmare causes the cage to drop, trapping everyone inside.
this data track is unbelievably good.
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
http://www.cnhedge.com/