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Non-Manufacturing ISM Slides, Posts Biggest Miss In 12 Months
Two days ago, the Manufcaturing ISM soared, trouncing expectations, in a very perplexing print because as the very next day we learned via ADP that manufacturing jobs dropped by 5,000 in April. Today, however, things are back to normal as the indicator that tracks the far greater component of US GDP: the Services ISM, just printed at 53.5, missing expectations of 55.3 wildly, and down from the previous print of 56.0. This was the biggest miss in 12 months, and the lowest print since December; it also printed below the lowest Wall Street forecast. That this should not be surprising to anyone we hope is a given: weak ADP but strong Claims (and now a drop in the employment Index); soaring Manufacturing but plunging Services, China expanding but China contracting, and so on: when we said that "Baffle them with Bullshit" is an official policy we were not joking. Remember: when in doubt ask: what would Schrodinger's cat do?
Lowest print of 2012, and bigest drop since last April:
Full breakdown:
The always entertaining survey responses:
- "Sales have improved slightly, yet still lag behind pre-recession highs. The hiring freeze has been lifted, but open positions are still being vetted for need, timing of the fill, and so forth." (Public Administration)
- "Business conditions have improved in March and April 2012. We have received more job inquiries and job awards in this period. The increase is about 15 percent." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
- "Current conditions compared to prior year are good. Fuel and food continue to be a challenge." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
- "Business is slowing — and projections for the rest of the year are being lowered." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
- "Business is still ahead of last year, but has leveled off a little." (Wholesale Trade)
- "High price of petroleum/oil driving up costs for all market areas." (Transportation & Warehousing)
And for those who still see commodity deflation everywhere, read em and weep:
Commodities Up in Price
Air Freight; Airfares (4); Anti-Bacterial Hand Sanitizers; Apparel; Asphalt; Asphalt Construction; Auto Parts; Automobile Tires; Beef; Benefits; Cleaning Products; Construction Services; Diesel Fuel (3); #1 Diesel Fuel (5); #2 Diesel Fuel (6); Delivery Services; Food & Beverage (2); Fuel (4); Fuel Products (2); Fuel Surcharges (2); Fuel Transportation; Gasoline (4); Hotel Rates; Labor; Office Products and Supplies; Paper Products; Plastic Bags (2); Plastic Can Liners; Plastic Film (3); Plastic Products (3); Rental Cars; Software Maintenance; Steel; Transportation Costs; 3/4-Ton Pickup Trucks (4X4); Trucks; and #10 Window Envelopes.
Commodities Down in Price
Carbon Steel Products; Cheese; Computer Equipment/Hardware; Copper Based Products; Electricity; and Natural Gas (3).
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Recovery! Should be good for another 20 /es points. Just need to take my bipolar med's.
It is well above 50 still and reinforces the great job Bernanke is doing. Per my contributor post above, do not play hanky panky with Bernanke!
Sincerely, R. Brusca
All they do is explain BS with more BS.
Manufagchorheeng?! We don need no steenkheeng manufagchoreeng!
Why, when we got 'financial products'. And they're triple A! Honest.
GUess ISM didnt get the Memo......
Maybe they did get the memo and this was the best they could do.
Thank goodness cheese is down in price. That makes it all better, buy stocks.
I think this report, viewed in light of the B(L)S report on jobs confirms we're STILL IN the recession that began in late 2007. I just wished the political-economic class would stop denying the obvious and work towards a real solution. [I can dream can't I]
LMFAO....REITS are up.
I fucking quit.
Maybe...but I doubt for long. Just look at that last half hour on SPG from yesterday. The Street blew out those shares. As I mentioned yesterday...$18.9 freakin' billion in debt on that balance sheet...and as I forgot to mention yesterday, the shares were dilluted at $137 a little over a month ago on a new issuance.
Hang in there, boiler.
IYR at 52 week high.
Fucking incredible.
Those whom the Gods would destroy...
'QE3/4-New' trade back ON!
Someone forgot to tell Gold ... and Siver. They are being pounded mercilessly.
Oh well of course...PM's are the only things that have to deal with any reality while equities go up on either good news or bad news.
The cat would buy puts. Then take a nap.
Central Bank liquidity is not self sustaining.. The entire system needs to be cleansed of zombie enterprises that are hoarding and misallocating resources. Let the markets-corptocracy destruct.
How we get creation is anyone's guess.
5-10 year deep depression. Or 30 year persistent lost decades?
More dollar debasement by Bernanke and the fed on it's way. Ever-decreasing reaction from ever-increasing QEing.
Takes more and more QEing to get more stimulating effect to the 99%. Like a drug addict (debt junkie) taking higher doses to get teh effect.
Pile on more debt on the deficit.
Print until faith in the US dollar arrives. Get the wheel barrels out to buy bread.
At this stage of the heroin markets the junkie is now just slamming larger and larger doses just to keep from getting sick.
Cheese is down? OH YEA baby! Thats a WIN!
Gartman just said he shorted cheese last week.
its all bullshit....
its 1984 and the Matrix still has way too many copper tops plugged in...
i just sit back and marvel at all the pretty lights and colors dancing about...
what a fucking joke the world has turned into...
oh well, off to my dealer to buy some more shiney.....
Hey...you stole my line..."It's all Bullshit". Been saying so for months. Now Tyler agrees...from the article -
"when we said that "Baffle them with Bullshit" is an official policy we were not joking.'
You guys are delusional. You want to believe your own shit? Fine. The ounce today broke the $1,638 resistance.
Here's how it will end: The EU will manage to do a fiscal pact leading to a fiscal union and the US will manage its debt. And we will all live happily forever after and those who bot gold will suffer like King Midas.
Do you have a newsletter to which I can subscribe?
his newsletter is "The Daily Troll"....
I just hope enough folks believe you that they dump all there gold on this operation "smack down" that has just begun. I'd really luv 1350ish to load up and walk away from it all... spend more time in the garden etc.
THAT is one smrt algo, it even knows how to give itself a thumbs up after it posts
That is what Nial Ferguson is suggesting re: EU (give him his props)
Problem: Plans & solutions ... anything is possible. But it takes human beings to effect this stuff with/against other humans ....
From out of nowhere Joan of Arc appears to save the bacon of French nobility/king at most crucial point of English perfidy.
Alexander the Great at like 28 annihilates a very effective sophisticated Persiam army 10x+ larger thn his doughty Macedonian force.
Point: who will become the 'Bismark' of the new Europeland? a reluctant Angie Merkel, the daughter of an E German minister. Germany underwrote with UK & France the post-WW2 NATO structure, then the massive absorption of E Germany ... now Germans are asked to 'underwrite' EULand? Details please ... this does not happen overnight .... it took Bismark decades to unify Germany
Manufcaturing indecks
My thoughts are that they're trying their damnedest to keep the markets up through to mid May until the Facebook IPO is done.
After that, who knows? Twist is coming an end in June with nothing stated as being in the pipeline (other than 'We stand ready with the appropritae tools', which the Fed have been saying for months now), Europe is in serious trouble, French elections this weekend, etc etc.
I reckon a sell-off followed by some action to get the market up into the elctions. I could be wrong!
DavidC
I wouldn't touch Facebook with a ten foot pole.
Not at the insane valuations presented by the Bastards of the Universe, but they're a strong tech company with a good brand and huge amounts of data to plumb.
There's a right price for ZuckerSoft...and I'm sure those shares will find it quickly.
Facebook, like many of the other big tech companies did nothing more than steal someone else's innovation yet the r made heroes and geniuses - right. Gates, zuckerfuck, jobless and many others are fucking scum and are/were the ones that helped create the current attitude in America. They all make me sick but then I don't measure someone's Intelligence by the size of their wallet otherwise Pilosy is a fucking genius! S are the rest of them!
I saw bill gates just sold 40 million is stock, doesn't even make a minor dent in his holdings. He use some of that to fund killer vaccines and some more to push legislation that eliminates the ability for Americans to know what we're eating. Big Bill may be the most evil motherfucker in history. He spends millions for people to write good stuff about him on the Internet and in magazines. An intellectual wannabe, really good at stealing though!
We are making the transition from fudging and outright lying.
In Argentina, it became illegal for the press to report on the inflation after a while. So, just draw a line between here and there and the garbage data we see fits nicely on the trajectory.
What transition, they have been lying for years?
Being gamed buy the jewish controlled money centers and the liars in the media all with the same agenda to re-elect the man who lined thier grubby pockets for the past 3 years at the expense of the taxpayers. The American people cannot possibly be that stupid!
Wrong,mores the pity.
Almost all the economic indicators are declining. A Socialist recovery!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/03/4-week-average-of-initial-rises-ism-manufacturing-falls-economy-weakens/
US ECONOMY WILL OFFCIALLY ENTER A RECESSION ON THE 15TH OF JUNE. FORGET ABOUT DATA THAT YOU READ - IT IS ALL MANIPULATED BY GOV AND CENTRAL BANKS....BUY REAL ASSETS ONLY