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Nonfarm Payroll Increase Less Than Expected At +80K, Unemployment Rate Drops To 9.0% Vs 9.1% Consensus

Tyler Durden's picture


Once again, Goldman was correct. From the report, "Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up in October (+80,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in the private sector rose, with modest job growth continuing in professional and businesses services, leisure and hospitality, health care, and mining. Government employment continued to trend down." While October missed consensus by 15K, September was revised from 103K to 158K. The change in private payrolls was +104K on expectations of 125K (down from an upward revised 191K), while manufacturing payrolls, or whatever is left of them, was +5K on expectations of +2K. The labor force participation ratio was flat at 64.2%, just off the 30 year low. What is truly hilarious, and what confirms the L should be permanently scrapped from the BLS is that the initial August NFP number of 0 has now been revised twice to 104,000 or whatever suites the US policy at the time.


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Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:33 | 1844526 silver500
silver500's picture

Yes 9%, Everything is working!

God bless Obama

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:35 | 1844536 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture


Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:38 | 1844546 paarsons
paarsons's picture

I  said we would drop to 9 percent.

Everybody called me a cunt.

I was right again.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:40 | 1844560 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Who gives a shit about this number, it is quite obviously fabricated and means fuck all.

Perhaps you were called a cunt because you are, actually a cunt.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:43 | 1844576 paarsons
paarsons's picture

I'm quite the cunt.

In fact, cunt is my favorite word.

I'm a viking on his way to the 3rd bottle of soju.

I shall die soon.

But who fucking cares?  

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:56 | 1844625 ThatThatcher
ThatThatcher's picture

You're  more than 'quite' annoying. Your blog sucks by the way :)

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:06 | 1844649 Benzass Miphist
Benzass Miphist's picture

You are one hilarious disturbed motherfucker. Love your blog's cunt heavy prose. Never tried Jinro Soju but soon will. Maybe it will replace my two "Four Locos" when I mow the motherfucking lawn.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:07 | 1844685 Raskolnikoff
Raskolnikoff's picture

I wouldn't trust your mother-in-law nor eat all that crazy food she's sending you. My Mother-in-law is from Southern China, I'll only eat the stuff she makes when I need a laxative.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 17:59 | 1846723 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Why are they even bothering with all the 19 century stupid surveys?  They HAVE THE DAMN tax records.  A computer can count the number of workers in 2 seconds.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:39 | 1844828 deez nutz
deez nutz's picture

hope and change, bitchez

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:44 | 1844542 depression
depression's picture

Outstanding !

At this pace of "recovery" we should be at 8% throw in a 0.2 tenths drop or two and we could be at 7.5% by election day !

Keep up the good "work" you 99 weeker's falling off the back of the wagon, and a big shout out to our good friends at the BLS for those "timely" adjustments.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:59 | 1844915 DarkestPhoenix
DarkestPhoenix's picture

My brother works for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.....he's an economics, statistics and political science triple-major, recipient of the Anthony Constantino Award in Economics and the smartest man I know.  He says they're hamstrung, and can't really report the real statistics, since their data gets skewed terribly.  His exact words to me were, "Nobody likes it when you tell them that real unemployment is at 22%."  He went on to state how the BLS does not factor in people whose unemployment benefits have expired ("The 'logic' is that they must not be looking for a job, so they aren't 'really' unemployed, they just choose not to work."), people who are not eligible for unemployment benefits or people who have recently graduated and cannot find work.  Basically, the 9% number is only people who recently lost their jobs and are still drawing unemployment.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:06 | 1846743 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Ask him this:

Why are they even bothering with all the 19 century stupid surveys?  They HAVE THE DAMN tax records.  A computer can count the number of workers in 2 seconds.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:18 | 1844730 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Take that Joe Lavorgna. 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:34 | 1844530 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Unemployment rate drops? So how many fell off the dolls? 300K?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:34 | 1844531 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

#occupy puttin the masses to work?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:05 | 1844672 Hansel
Hansel's picture

It worked in Oakland.  The mayor gave all public employees a paid day off to protest, except for all the cops, who were asked to work overtime to police all the new protesters. link

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:34 | 1844534 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

ES green!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:36 | 1844538 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Good job Joe Lavorgna. As usual you are the most wrong. You deserve a raise. I wonder what the birth/death number is.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:36 | 1844539 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

And the scam rolls on.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:37 | 1844540 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

999.. Its the hot number...Number Nine..Number Nine..

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:39 | 1844554 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

You forgot the decimal. 


Unemployment in 2014 - 99.9%

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:47 | 1844589 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

While the devil's always in the details, and this jobs report and official miss, and even bigger, BLS "massaged" [i.e. birth/death record, dropped UEI rolls, etc.] report is far worse than is being touted, in even more depressing news, Canada lost 54,000 jobs, which is the equivalent of the U.S. losing 540,000, for the month.

Green shoots, eh.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:06 | 1844943 DarkestPhoenix
DarkestPhoenix's picture

At that point, I may not be employed, but at least I'll have a stack with the same purity rating.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:07 | 1846745 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Possibly true if Obama's forced health insurance goes through.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:37 | 1844541 qussl3
qussl3's picture

No QE3.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:41 | 1844566 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

The economy doesn't need it.  Didn't you read the report? Unemployment dropped, we're back to a booming economy...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:48 | 1844591 depression
depression's picture

Another side benefit here is, this kills any incentive to pass any part of the Obama Job's for America stimulus programs.

Put a fork in it.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:10 | 1846759 mkkby
mkkby's picture

I hear Obama's great new plan is for everyone to work part time so there's enough jobs to go around. /sarc

... only with the forced health insurance coming up in 2 years, it might not be such a joke.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:37 | 1844544 TooRichtoCare
TooRichtoCare's picture

it's a good number....notwithstanding the fact that the initial headline number is slightly below consensus.  Revisions to prior months, a major positive. A drop in unemployment.  (And also worth mentioning, the major increases in the Household Survey, which you can ignore if you want because it's a quirky & inconsistent number but if it shows consistent gains then maybe it has some smidgen of credibility?)

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:40 | 1844556 jdelano
jdelano's picture

Are you kidding?  Anyone who pretends they don't understand that unemployment is dropping because thousands of the unemployed are falling off the end of 99 weeks and GIVING UP ALL HOPE OF EVER GETTING A JOB AGAIN is lying through their teeth.  This country is giving out its death rattle.  

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:35 | 1844812 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Do you ever wonder why GS is so good, yet when their bigshots leave for other companies they fail?  Perhaps being the head of the banking cartel and being able to tell the Fed what to do gives them an advantage.  Getting the employment data and knowing what the Fed is going to do ahead of time would be useful information, wouldn't it?   

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:58 | 1844642 chubbar
chubbar's picture

I can show you consistent gains month after month if you let me change the scale on the ruler at will. That's all these guys do, continually modify the formula. How the fuck in gods green earth can anyone believe there is only 9% unemployment? Really, just how? You think not counting folks after a year looking for work is legitimate? You think counting folks who take a minimum wage job to put food on the table while proceeding to look for real work is legitimate? PHDs flipping burgers, engineers working checkout lanes, really? 45 million on food stamps? No one who follows how the BLS calculates unemployment believes the absolute bullshit being shoveled by our gov't. I've stopped paying any attention whatsoever to what comes out of any gov't agency.

This is one big smoke screen compliments of the BLS. They will use whatever formula is necessary to show under 10%. That's the big number that the US will never exceed as long as the scale to measure it is under the control of the politicians at BLS.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:38 | 1844548 The Axe
The Axe's picture

actually very small improvement with revisions...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:39 | 1844550 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Gross on NFP:


Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:39 | 1844553 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Still leaves US at the mercey of Europe!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:40 | 1844555 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Financial services up;

health services up;

construction and manufacturing down.


Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:42 | 1844569 Cursive
Cursive's picture


This is the FIRE economy.  It's the only growth industries we've had for the last 20-30 years.  Sad.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:07 | 1844701 Benzass Miphist
Benzass Miphist's picture

Healthcare is up alright. But exploding numbers of previously privately insured patients now on motherfucking medicaid. The lesser numbers of insured patients can't even afford their copays and are foregoing needed care.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:39 | 1844557 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture



Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:40 | 1844559 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Meh.  I guess there's something for bulls and bears in this report.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:40 | 1844563 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

We are going to be stuck in this ditch for a long time

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:57 | 1844635 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Could have been a "deeper ditch" if it wasn't for the FED, harr harr.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:43 | 1844572 Dain Bramage
Dain Bramage's picture

I want Mark Zandi's job.  ALways bullish, always wrong, get paid lots of money.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:49 | 1844597 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

What a shill.  Its too bad I can't punch him in the mouth through the TV.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:42 | 1844573 oleander garch
oleander garch's picture

Until the TBTF banks are shrunken enough to drown in a bathtub, there will be no improvement for the masses.  Too bad for them.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:44 | 1844578 Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

That's because they are PAYING the OWS protestors.  If those morons were not getting paid, they surely wouldn't be sleeping in tents, cold and rain.  However it is NOT long term employment.  Remember the other protest in Wisconsin, we added jobs then but quickly lost them again.  LOOK at the numbers!!!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:44 | 1844580 Ben Bermonkey
Ben Bermonkey's picture

BLS= Bureau of Liars Statistics

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:44 | 1844581 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Maintain that trading range between the 200 and 50 DMA is the most optimistic goal the ponziclowns could hope for.  This should do it.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:45 | 1844582 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

BIRTH/DEATH = +ONE HUNDRED & TWO THOUSAND (+102,000) ?!?!?!?!?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:50 | 1844585 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Fondling a 10 oz. silver bar is good for the soul.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:49 | 1844595 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

And the unemployment falls... ahahahahaha... Good one.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:49 | 1844598 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

No end to what this Muslim will do to get reelected.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:14 | 1846765 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Muslim Kenyan citizen.  Fixed it for ya.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:52 | 1844611 monopoly
monopoly's picture

And do they talk about the"quality of jobs" being produced, what little there is. Bogus numbers, and I see 0 recovery. I was in Staples yesterday, bought a new printer for the office, no big deal, about $375.00 an HP wireless. Model been in the store about 6 months. There were 3 other shoppers in this huge store, sales clerk advised this is the 3rd printer over 300.00 they 6 months. 

Last "Black Friday" they had 10 customers waiting to get in at opening. This year they expect maybe 50. During the phony boom years the parking lot was full and they had to control the mob.

What freaking recovery? Bullshit.

And there is Cramer's face on bubble vision.  Over to Bloomberg. That charlatan makes me sick.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:54 | 1844617 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Denominator shrank as Not In Labor Force (and thus not counted anymore) increased (NSA).

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:57 | 1844634 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

U6 is at 16.2 - that, IMO, is the "real" number as it reflects those who get off the rolls. 

And ANYONE proud of a 1% change, including the White House, should be ashamed of themselves.  The business community can do better.  Government can do better.  It's Fuckin' America, god damnit. 

Governments and economists, from Austrian AND Keynesian schools, can lie. 

Data and math can't.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:58 | 1844644 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

They must do anything to get the debt slaves out buying shit for Christmas.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:13 | 1844710 sabra1
sabra1's picture

easy solution! start a war, bring back the draft, 6M employed instantly!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:13 | 1844714 devo
devo's picture

Unemployment is nearing 20%. So this report is a lie and meaningless.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:28 | 1844774 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Lavorgna was only wrong by about 95%.

For that he will get a 7 figure bonus.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:31 | 1844776 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Last "Black Friday" they had 10 customers waiting to get in at opening. This year they expect maybe 50. During the phony boom years the parking lot was full and they had to control the mob.

SUCH a good point.  Thrift seeking goes up with inflation.  When people's wallets are strapped, they are more likely to bargain hunt.  Nothing wrong with a little bargain hunting, but when mobs are trampling each other just to save $175 on a HD TV, that's NOT a goos sign.

Administrative+Waste Services was top job-adding sector in October - this is a McJob Recovery. 

THE Dirty secret is that admin & waste services has been where significant job gains have been concentrated for months.  Hint: you dont really get paid much for these types of jobs.  I know, I used to be an admin myself, and even as mid-tier employee now , I still get paid shit.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:34 | 1844806 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

If people really want to know what's happening with employment they can back into it through payroll tax collections.(adjusted for the tax cut, higher ceiling, ect)Nobody pays payroll tax unless they have to. I used to do it but don't really care right now. Who cares if the economy created 75-100,000 jobs a month for a year and a half betweeen recessions? I'll leave that to the Ivy leage economists. Once Europe and the slowdown in emerging markets hit's home the next (technical)recession will start. And all these clowns will say it's only a mild recession. Which it will be. When housing, autos, ect never recovered it can't fall by much. Depression continues unabated.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 18:21 | 1846791 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Yep, wait until austerity hits here.  Gov is borrowing an extra $1.3 trillion annually.  That's 10's of millions of fake jobs.  Someday that all goes bye bye.  Calling that depression "great" will be a huge understatement.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:57 | 1844900 TruthHunter
TruthHunter's picture

9.0 from 9.1?

Looks like fudge, but stinks like shit

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:10 | 1844965 SHEEPFUKKER

Anybody know if Kobe Bryant and Co. are eligible for the dole? If so, that must just be bad luck eh Bernank? But in all seriousness, the lockout is probably worth thousands if not 10's of thousands of jobs all in.

And yeah, who cares if the unemployment number drops on no jobs growth, just knock that bad boy down to 5% and be done with it.  Problem solved.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:48 | 1845162 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

I missed yesterday's post ...what is the layoffs going to be revised to? it was the first 'sub-400' in a couple weeks, but we all know its BS, wasn't sure what the prior week was revised to?

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