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Not With A Bang, But A 28% Annualized Decline: Charting The End Of The German Manufacturing Miracle

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Slowly, but surely, the global economic growth dynamo is growing ever dimmer and dimmer. Two days ago we reported that that relentless driver of global growth - exports - finally succumbed to reality, as slowly but surely the paradigm of everyone exporting to someone else with magically nobody importing, logically collapsed. This is now followed by German manufacturing, that traditional and only source of strength in Europe, which half an hour ago was reported to drop 4.3%, compared to an expectation of a 0.1% gain. In other words, as the chart below shows German factory orders have just suffered their worst three, post-Reunification months outside of the late crash itself, falling at a 28% annualized rate, to take the total back to where it first stood over five years ago. Reaction is swift: Italian and Spanish bonds immediately drop, with the yield returning to 6.23% and 5.52%, forcing the ECB's monetization actions to have to fight not only "speculators" but also reality.

h/t Sean Corrigan

 

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Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:49 | 1844342 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

this man is the new head of the Global Financial Stability Board

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/5120870.bin

 

is it just a coincidence that he's a GS alum and has vampire like cuspids

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:51 | 1844368 CPL
CPL's picture

Mark Carney.

 

Once a Carney always a carney.  Step right up to the greatest show on earth!!

 

Watch broke assed banks lie about their real estate exposure because of FAS rulings three years ago!!

Watch a poorly constructed financial idea from 80 years ago fail miserably as there are no animals in the market, just lies!!!

 

...can't even bother continuing with it...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:42 | 1844344 CPL
CPL's picture

Holy crap

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:55 | 1844380 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Holy crap indeed. What are the anonymouse interwebs saying about Iran Cpl? 

Perhaps in a week or three, we will see why all thsi industrial build-up happened in the first place?

Germany is a part of NATO, no? or is it apart from it? As if Libyan karma was not bad enough, now Iran. 

I ran, you ran, we all ran....

ORI

war-memes-me-iran-israel-uk-us-social-engineering-planted-stories

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:09 | 1844434 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

Yes, Germany is part of the NATO. Opposite to what many think, we are more pacifist now. German law & constitution forbids an war of aggression [Angriffskrieg]. But since law doesn't mean anything anymore - as you've seen with our support of the Afghanistan war (which was instantly declared as 'a mission to defend the security of Germany') - I don't know. However, I it is unlikely that Merkel will support a war against Iran - maybe with words and some after war actions, but not more. She wanted to be part of the Iraq war though. Germany had several missions in the recent years - in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Congo, etc. - but I would consider it a weaker part of the NATO.

But that does not mean we are not delivering weapons. I know a guy working in the German arms industry - he said to me several years ago: "I don't care about Israel or Iran - I care about business." So you may find German weapons on both sides - not always officially of course. But does that count? Earlier this year Germany signed a contract with Saudi-Arabia to deliver 200 modern tanks to them. And we are delivering submarines to Israel (for years they had not to pay for them - as a form of holocaust reparation) - although that deal is on a halt currently. And Germany is working on a big deal with Russia currently - a modernization of their army.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:12 | 1844448 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Thanks for that interesting inside view PY. I think Germany and Japan's roles in the post WW!! scenario have been just fascinatingly played out. And the degree of social engineering in both countries (notice GUILT is the big driver in both places)....

Hmmm... and thanks for the link to the Philosopher earlier that I could not respond to at the time. It was a tough read because of the translation issues, but he had a very interesting take. Right from the word Crisis and his interpretation of it.

ORI

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:15 | 1844462 Rynak
Rynak's picture

You forgot surveilance and spies. Even though sending soldiers is hard to sell to the german population, the gov is always willing to secretly provide spy services to western aggressors - typically with a year later later it being revealed and causing a bit of media outrage, but no consequences.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:21 | 1844487 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

Yes, that's true, Rynak. Especially the German BND (German "Intelligence" Service)  is always part of the game. If asked they will also deliver fake information to justify a war (think of Curveball and Iraq invasion)

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:45 | 1844348 Popo
Popo's picture

Deflation bitches

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:49 | 1844359 qussl3
qussl3's picture

I'm betting on it, i got fiat aplenty waiting to pick up assets.

But if they succeed in amending the ECB charter or that SDR stunt, all bets are off.

It's going to be hilarious when China devalues again to juice exports.

Perhaps another super destocking cycle is on the cards.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:53 | 1844376 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Yeah, I just can't see how you can print your way out of this. The world has built to much of everything and all the fiat in the World won't stop it. But it doesn't mean they won't try....

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:48 | 1844353 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Depression... Manic De-pression

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Kf-h3PMupk

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:47 | 1844354 jm
jm's picture

At least now there will be less griping about ECB bond purchases.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:52 | 1844374 CPL
CPL's picture

How? 

Because it's a good indication that a large percentage of Germans are about to get laid off and more than likely go down the road of Greece?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:58 | 1844388 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Read after me:

Giant exporters never did, and still do not, provide the majority of jobs. Just like everywhere else, the domestic market instead is doing that - and that one has been in decline since the begin of the "german manufacturing wonder", which really instead was a "mutinational government-sponsored export wonder bought on credit".

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:57 | 1844390 jm
jm's picture

Because German industry needs Greek, Spanish, Italian, French, Portugese and Belgian customers.  Now people relaize that bond purchasing is a German jobs program.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:48 | 1844356 BW
BW's picture

Can't out run (out print) deflation.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:49 | 1844360 sabra1
sabra1's picture

the DAX is taking it pretty good! shows how corrupt it all is!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:53 | 1844378 CPL
CPL's picture

...sigh...oh well, since the East Germans are still pussy whipped, maybe the West German Element will take control of this situation.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:31 | 1844521 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

That's interesting because I thought that Germans have done very good job assimilating East and rapidly rised standard of living in that part of Germany. It looks like both sides are not too pissed off with that situation. East Germany was about 17 mln people when they merged and still Angela (East Germany) has support of at least 50% of population. Most of their debt flows from investment in the east.  

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:04 | 1844381 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Nah its just the "corporates are decoupling from the real economy" delusion.

The last time it was Asia, cant reuse the same theme so soon now can we?

It might take till next earnings season before the sheep panic, in the meantime distribution galore.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:10 | 1844404 reload
reload's picture

Hardly blinked did it?

oops until right now - Dr Copper a good leading indicator for risk again today.

edit - the big dipper dips again: Mrs M says no G20 `agreement on IMF resources`

The word is driven ONLY by headlines and expectancy of fiat creation juice. Stuff like Industrial production just dont matter.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:52 | 1844365 Ol Man
Ol Man's picture

...The Eurosion continues...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:51 | 1844367 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Yay!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:55 | 1844382 LeonardoFibonacci
LeonardoFibonacci's picture

Adolf i miss you :)

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:57 | 1844389 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

Reality, 99 % live in it, 1% deny it (or live in a different one).

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 07:57 | 1844392 LeonardoFibonacci
LeonardoFibonacci's picture

We need a factory setup just like in Schindlers list.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:25 | 1844502 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Are you signing up to be the "worker"?

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:10 | 1844424 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

My reversal day finally..could be a nice 300 pt drop    TY.  Germanic peoples.

In the topping process the market tends to  rollover and plunge, while the bear rallies tend to be dramatic intraday affairs.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:11 | 1844441 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"Rollover Beethoven"

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 08:18 | 1844477 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Great line. Fighting not only speculators but reality!!!!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 09:12 | 1844709 s2man
s2man's picture

All the bubbles are deflating. Slowly putting pressure on each other, causing them to deflate more.  No one/nothing can reinflate them. The Age of Excess is over.

Sat, 11/05/2011 - 08:53 | 1848227 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

China powers the manufacturing miracle of Germany, cut the power plug from those fixed assets maniacs party officials of China and watch this index go lower and lower...

 

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