This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Worst Case Scenario Is Here: Berlusconi Says Only Option Is Early Elections

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Well that rumor lastest all of 30 minutes:

  • BERLUSCONI: `ONLY POSSIBILITY' IS EARLY ELECTIONS -Bloomberg
  • BERLUSCONI: PRESIDENT WILL DECIDE HOW TO RESOLVE CRISIS -Bloomberg
  • ITALY'S BERLUSCONI SAYS IMPORTANT TO ACT IN COUNTRY'S INTEREST -Bloomberg

In other news, G-Pap is still Greek PM. But any minute now. Aaaaaaany minute... And as a reminder, the worst case scenario was earlier determined by Credit Suisse to be the worst possible outcome of the Italian chaos.

Early elections. The most market negative option in the short-term, in our view, and a sign of incapacity to reach an agreement at the political level. Uncertainty on the outcome of the elections could last for several months, as elections would be called at the earliest in January but possibly as late as March or April. As the chart below shows, it is unclear if the current opposition will win a clear mandate. The President of the Republic will likely try to avoid an early election in all possible ways, in our view. We attach a 30% probability to this scenario.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:29 | 1857686 redpill
redpill's picture

Sto scherzando!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:30 | 1857692 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

The Careless Whisper Afternoon Update

 

Crosby & Nash To Perform Concert At OWS Zuccotti Park NYC Today 3 PM

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2011/11/08/crosby-and-nash-to-play-at-zuccot...

Corleone Bank & Trust Settles Bid Rigging Charge

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020419070457702584177574540...

"Call Of Duty: Modern Warfare 3" Expected To Sell 6 Million Copies Today

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-08/-call-of-duty-begins-eighth-...

Surprise Raid On Men's Acapulco Jail Finds Prostitutes, Pot, Big Screen TVs

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2011/11/08/police-find-prostitutes...

VIDEO: It's The End Of Communist China As We Know It

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IF5WYaoWXI4#t=0m45s

VIDEO: Ron Paul Limited Edition Corvette, 100% Made In USA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_y0ctukbmw

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:34 | 1857725 ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

Re: Ron Paul Limited Edition...Just can't wait to see that at Bloomington Gold or an NCRS meet. 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:36 | 1858224 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Here is Berlusconi's official statement:

 

I've led a long, incredibly corrupt and highly lucrative role in helping to sell out and destroy my native country, and selling it and its citizens out to the fractional reserve banksters arm of the House of the Red Shield (and I want to personally thank a great man, Carlmann Mayer von Rothschild, the fourth son of Mayer Rothschild, who came to Naples to see and conquer), essentially turning Italians and their present and future children and grandchildren into some of the most highly indebted and leveraged debt serfs.

 

Now, it is with great regret that I announce it is time for me to resign, as I would like to have more time, during the sunset of my life, to....did you think I would say spend more time with my family?

 

Psych!

 

Now say hello to your next duly installed bankster puppet, my fellow Italians.

 

Bung-Bunga time for me, 24/7, bitchez! 'They' made me an offer I simply can't refuse.

 

-- Silvio 'Bunga-Bunga' Berlusconi

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:43 | 1857792 He_Who Carried ...
He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

There will be an election he can not win. Addio MF!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:32 | 1858036 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Don't panic. In the end, it's completely uninteresting who runs the government in Italy. If Berlusconi fails, Italian people will return to traditional chaotic behaviour and change their government every six months or so. From left to right, from right to left, from left to right and so on -- as they did in the pre-EUR decades, before Berlusconi. No sign of any "stability" on the horizon.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:03 | 1858180 He_Who Carried ...
He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

You've forgotten who will run the NEW Italy: Lagarde and Merkozy. This time IS different as the Greek and Portuguese can confirm ;-)

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:45 | 1857803 onelight
onelight's picture

Burlesqu-oni is doing the slow, taunting departure from the stage...don't wanna hear about the afterparty..

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:30 | 1857689 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Rumormill at 10,000rpm

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:35 | 1857729 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Someone tell the 'market'

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:36 | 1857740 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

mark it rumor-to-market

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:40 | 1857773 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Sell it.  It very much looks like one BS rally too many, to me.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:47 | 1857809 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Dunno, looks like all the humans have gone home.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:51 | 1857825 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea exactly, dead empty. Only activity is stop losses getting slammed a few times per day now.

What a sick, broken market....thanks a lot Ben.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:01 | 1857882 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Bullish .. it.

Bloomberg:

"U.S. stocks rose for a second day and the euro strengthened as Italy’s president said Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has agreed to resign,"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-08/euro-weakens-a-third-day-before-italy-vote-as-japan-shares-fall-on-olympus.html

This is good for another post.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 08:25 | 1860110 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Whose your daddy?

Serously, it is EXACTLY when all the humans have gone home, and the machines are rallying stocks on NOTHING that you sell.  Yes, you have to have the stones to hold over night, but the overnight pay days have been very, very good lately.

Don't fear the machines...use them...up until they start walking upright and firing pulse riffles.  Then you can fear them.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:36 | 1857743 hambone
hambone's picture

Rumored rumor to arrive 3pm...rumor is markets are spiking in anticipation of said rumor.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:38 | 1857757 onelight
onelight's picture

Yes Ham, that worked v well -- ES are now back up around the 200day .. sure they'll think of something next!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:48 | 1857815 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Nah, they'll just push through a giant buy order at 3AM.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:30 | 1857691 blu
blu's picture

I am resigning from being the only blue-shaded-bat-winged commentor on ZH.

No -- wait ... I now have to comment on that ...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:30 | 1857695 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

So, what was the typical 2pm news that sent the market into the green? I missed it.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:30 | 1857697 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

maybe rumors should only be run at 3pm EST to gun market at close.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:31 | 1857702 Socrate
Socrate's picture

La mamma di Silvio !

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:31 | 1857704 Belarus
Belarus's picture

Who cares about all this shit. Just buy the DOW. You've got machines working for you, the Federal Reserve, and the government, and guys that know how to make money like Buffett and Grennblatt. 

Why fight it. Get it on the ride. Power hour is here!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:36 | 1857744 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

You sound like a street corner crack dealer recruiting a child to work for you.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:01 | 1857884 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Fine, if it helps you sleep.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:42 | 1858090 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Because the US taxpayer is tired of bailing your arrogant ass on really dumb bets that you really no control of.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:31 | 1857705 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Equity land screaming "I can't hear Youuuuu, lalalalalaa!" What a fookin rigged game...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:31 | 1857707 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

 

 

  • BERLUSCONI: `ONLY POSSIBILITY' IS EARLY ERECTIONS -Bloomberg
  • ITALY'S BERLUSCONI SAYS IMPORTANT TO ACT IN CUNT'S INTEREST -Bloomberg
Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:34 | 1857727 blu
blu's picture

ding-ding-ding -- winner!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:42 | 1857779 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

-- weiner!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:32 | 1857709 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Sheesh taking a page from Greece. Just let go Berlusconi. Like your Greek counter part you too will be replaced by a fed tool. So take what little balls you have left in that tiny scrotum and write your music.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:32 | 1857712 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

Meanwhile, 3 and 5 year bungabond yields surpass the 10 year.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:32 | 1857713 IEVI
IEVI's picture

What comes after ludicrous speed? Whatever it is I think we've achieved it.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:37 | 1858349 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

That's a tough one...  Preposterous Speed!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:32 | 1857714 daily bread
daily bread's picture

The gold shipment from JPM has not yet been loaded onto his private jet.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:33 | 1857715 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Blue Horseshoe Bitchez!

Fight on G-Pap, ignore the smear campaign!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:33 | 1857718 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

so resignation pops the EUR and then refuting the resignation pops the eur.  love a good ponzi.

 

 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:59 | 1857877 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

MSM will report the second story at midnight

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:33 | 1857719 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

What a bunch of fuckin morons!  They must all be inbred seriously!!!  The media is so desperate for any bullshit.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:33 | 1857720 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

"Act in Country's interest"

Now THAT'S fuckin funny!!!!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:34 | 1857721 Belarus
Belarus's picture

hello 1,700's. Gold is back, again. thank goodness. All is well.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:36 | 1857739 IEVI
IEVI's picture

What the hell happened there..are there margin hike rumors?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:34 | 1857722 NaiLib
NaiLib's picture

Congrats to the US investors. Apparently none in the US know whats Italy is.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:34 | 1857724 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Oh nlce an early headfake 3pm rumour

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:36 | 1857726 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

 Diane Swonk is an advisor to the Federal Reserve?

 

http://dyslexia.yale.edu/swonk.html  (makes snese )

 

Dick Bove and Doug Kass must be pissed 

 

 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:35 | 1857732 chump666
chump666's picture

and these panic meltups!!! now moving into danger overbought ranges.  smells like rogue momo trading.  someone is going to be slaughtered on the dowside panic sell off soon.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:35 | 1857733 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

So stocks jumped 1/2 % on his resigning.

 

Now they go higher because he is NOT resigning.

 

Yepper, makes perfect sense.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:37 | 1857752 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Anything to trip all those stop losses.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:44 | 1857797 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Look at bund future, almost 100 tick move down. On this! Uh huh...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:02 | 1857890 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

You know how difficult it is for the market to get off their hopium.  Very addicitive.  Once caught in the euphoria rush of another run up ...it takes awhile for the hopium induced lemmings to come down from their high.  Like I said...reality will set in when they get the sledge hammer across the head!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:35 | 1857735 daily bread
daily bread's picture

The market is like Charlie Brown .. it never gets tired of Lucy pulling away the football at the last second. 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:53 | 1857838 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

Hahaha....yea that's a good one.  And the market always trusts Lucy one more time not to pull it away.....suckers!!!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:37 | 1858065 MissCellany
MissCellany's picture

I dunno...I think the market is Lucy...always screwing over the regular guy...because she can and she thinks it's funny.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:36 | 1857742 lotusblue
lotusblue's picture

Ankling for better moral hazard.It's gonna go like Titanic.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:36 | 1857747 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Man what a rough market...just as soon as longs get the OK to pile in, all their stops get slammed thru. No matter where the market closes, everyone gets a -1% loss. Stop-lossed to death.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:38 | 1857753 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Gotta love the "unity" and "comaradarie"

 

"French President Nicolas Sarkozy called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a "liar" in remarks to US President Barack Obama overheard by journalists.

"I can't stand him any more, he's a liar," Mr Sarkozy said in French.

"You may be sick of him, but me, I have to deal with him every day," Mr Obama replied.

The exchange at the G20 summit was quoted by a French website, Arret sur Images, and confirmed by other media."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15635476

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:39 | 1857759 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Berlu will RESIGN; and I told you so; not that you have to be TD to say that yesterday...or day before...it was written in the wind.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:40 | 1857766 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Fuck sake! This is just loony how much worthless rumors move the market.  Welp, time to buy the rumor sale the news.

The only thing stupider than equities, has been WTI.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:40 | 1857767 chump666
chump666's picture

um dumb ass Wall Street traders...I think Italy's 10yr will reach 7% in the next 48hrs

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:40 | 1857770 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

what time does the referendum announcement come?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:41 | 1857774 kito
kito's picture

TYLER JINXED GOLD AGAIN!!!!!!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:42 | 1857783 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Geez,

Tyler is busy posting 20 times a day about all the doom and everyone keeps saying the "collapse is going to be epic" and any day now (myself included) meanwhile the DOW shoots past 12,000!

I refuse to go long any stock because it is impossible for me to find the true value of that stock. But the Fed, ECB and all the other powers that be are sure making us bears look stoopid!

Go ahead, junk away.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:43 | 1857791 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Repeat after me: Risk on! until all the shorts surrender.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:48 | 1857818 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Problem is, longs are obviously taking a beating as well with the daily -100 point plunges, tripping all stops then chug on back up again. 

I know a lot of actual traders, and none of them say theyre making jack shit.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:56 | 1857859 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Well that is obvious after seeing the Hedge Fund Performance. It is just getting so old and tiring. I would like to invest in some sound companies so I have something for retirement in 25 years and  my 1 year old has something for the future.

I want to be an investor, not a trader and they are forcing me to trade and that is bullshit!

But I know the market will eventually crash (whether that is 6 weeks, 6 months or 6 years). And that is what I am saving my money for. Although I do gamble a bit with the triple levered ETFs! But it is money I am not afraid to lose.

Hopefully a real market will occur one day in the future but it certainley ain't now!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:44 | 1858108 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

F**k that. Just makes my resolve stronger knowing this vapor meltup is leveraged.

Long FAZ only because a few 300+ point crashes makes up for all the losses the past couple weeks.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:44 | 1857794 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Just die goddammit!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfeZXWXmI_0&feature=related

(Sorry about the cruddy quality, it's the only one I could find)

DavidC

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:44 | 1857795 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Chiacchere, chiacchere, italondoli di prima categoria, that's the oxygene for the markets to move higher. I am waiting to see the dumb asses Casini, De Pietro and Bersani, Fini is already a nonvaleur, to talk, talk, talk.......und wenn sie nicht gestorben sind, leben sie heute noch

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:47 | 1857810 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Decoupling is here. This time is different. No Greek government. No Italian government and market up 100 points.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:54 | 1857841 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Now you know what Ronald Reagan meant when he said "government isn't the solution it's the problem." start of the biggest economic boom since the Great Depression. Unfortunately we're still waiting for this one to end in war like the last one.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:48 | 1857816 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Don't worry, wallstreet will find some bullishness in any bad news.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:48 | 1857817 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

3pm rumor was 1 hour early today.  they are getting desperate

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:50 | 1857820 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

dude owns/controls 80% of the media in Italy.  He will win the election.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:50 | 1857823 Odin
Odin's picture

....annnnnnnddd drop...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:55 | 1857851 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

So does this mean we can arrest Michael Bloomberg now?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:57 | 1857866 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

Did CME just hike margins after market close again? By how much?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:58 | 1857871 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

I think we have witnessed the heights of market maximum retardedness over the last while.  Lots of traders taking nerve pills these days.  Only the market manipulators relaxing while they do their thing!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:58 | 1857875 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

He said 'Early Erection' not 'Early Election'.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:02 | 1857894 charlie mcgrath
charlie mcgrath's picture

WHAT COMPLETE GOAT FU%$ , THESE BANKSTERS ARE GOING DROP CRISIS LIKE 2k lb jdam s  till they get begged to take over greece,italia,port,spain,ireland,world.... let these bitchez burn

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:08 | 1857926 Odin
Odin's picture

It's as I've feared... We've entered some nonsensical existence where "good news" hopium sends the market sky rocketing, and authentic bad news does little to drop it... Welcome to the Machine.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:13 | 1857949 Scalaris
Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:13 | 1857952 plantigrade
plantigrade's picture

The Farce is with us.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:26 | 1858012 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

The U.S. has a strong Dollar policy (Except when we need a weak Dollar)

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:27 | 1858015 monopoly
monopoly's picture

If this was not all so pathetic it would actually be funny and make a decent B grade movie.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:51 | 1858131 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"...the worst case scenario was earlier determined by Credit Suisse to be the worst possible outcome..."

Where would we be without Swiss precision, and prescience?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:16 | 1858900 Corduroy
Corduroy's picture

But when his drinking and lusting and his hunger
for power became known to more and more people,
the demands to do something about this outrageous
man became louder and louder.

"This man's just got to go!" declared his enemies
But the ladies begged "Don't you try to do it, please"
No doubt this Silvo had lots of hidden charms
Though he was a brute they just fell into his arms
Then one night some men of higher standing
Set a trap, they're not to blame
"Come to visit us" they kept demanding
And he really came

SIL SIL SILVIO
Lover of any woman he sees
There was a cat that really was gone
SIL SIL SILVIO
Italy's greatest love machine
It was a shame how he carried on

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:12 | 1859263 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

Don't worry, this will be forgotten long before the markets open.  Rally on!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!