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Spot The Odd Labor Market Out
Earlier this morning, strategically timed just in advance of the Chairman's tacit admission that everything attempted to date has once again failed to stimulate the economy as now both housing and soon employment have resume their drop, New York Fed released a note titled "Prospects for the U.S. Labor Market" which in not so many words explains why there are none. While the analysis is the same that has been presented here over and over, confirming that the jobs recovery has been anything but, and thus setting the stage for today's Bernanke preannouncement to either a March NFP miss or more QE at the April FOMC meeting as Bill Gross tweeted yesterday, it has one chart that shows why when it comes to restoring a virtuous cycle this time is different, and why endless central planning may have finally broken traditional economic assumptions. The chart below is perhaps the only one worth noting. Spot the odd "recovery" out.
Needless to say, according to the Chairman of the printing committee the fix is a simple one: more printing.
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Ugly....
So basically it got really bad in 2009........what else happened then?
Hmmm.....I can't really think of anything at the moment.
Oh wait......that's when the hope AND the change kicked it.....BOOM WINNING!!!!
Everybody just calm down... Obama has it all under control.
Just like all great leaders he took time to point out that if he had a son he would look just like Trevon... spreading calm in an inflamitory environment.
Oh... and he picked UNC to win the NCAA tournament. He truly is the smartest man in the room, at least if there is no one else in the room with him.
Right after another round of gold......it's all about pacing yourself.
Last chart on the right looks like an angry pitchfork!
Yes.....but I don't think it's politically correct to point that out.
That pitchfork feels like it is stuck in my back!
To be clear... The down votes you get won't be from Obama supporters, rather those who recognize that it's all a charade with nothing but banker puppets as far as the eye on the dollar bill can see. Central banks love when you make it political.
That picture says 15 trillion words
16, but at those levels, normal people stop counting.
yeah whats a trillion anyway
printing=$5 gas. jobs lost and deeper depression. but at least no bankers will ever be convicted for their crimes against capitalism.
more important to the bankers are the bonuses being preserved. Jobs and crimes are not a worry when you have CONgress and every regulatory agency in your back pocket.
Bleakovery
http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/3oh4qn/
Yup, and what if we plot welfare spending (Medicaid, UC extension and SNAP) and diffusion against the above charts? Gee, I wonder if we'll see the cause....
Great point, what will happen to SNAP spending when food cost soar again? Long JPM!
people will simply starve and die. bernanke is a genocidal, printing monster.
Regarding Walmart shoppers,,I've posted this before,,good vid plugs ZH..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_profilepage&v=cJg99tGolNI
Long black markets and all things physical.
Hey... the last chart is butt ugly! All Hail Globalization and Offshore Manufacturing.
Used to be the motto was "Raise All Ships", new normal is "Sink the Bastards"
hard to fudge that one, BLS....seems to unequivocally reflect the 6 million or so who have given up looking/working and have been dropped from the roles. attention all "useless eaters": your rations are being cut.
Until such time as Bernanke is removed from the Eccles buildinig, this situation will only continue to deteriorate. Remember all that cash on the sidelines? If a reference to that cash is warranted, it is so because normal corporate operations simply cannot resume while Bernanke is doing his thing and DC is spending itself into debt oblivion...both. While you can change your market position in a nanosecond based on Bernanke's public statements, you cannot change corporate policies at the same pace. Duh.
And so the unrepentant Federal Reserve Chairman IS THE PROBLEM. And he just renewed his commitment to his utterly destructive policies.
Roll on Greater American Depression...roll on. We all best start learning how to hop moving freight trains.
Correction: "Until such time as the Eccles Building is removed from the economy..."
Why do otherwise seemingly intelligent ZHers keep perpetuating the "myth of the man"!?!?
It's the institution/system that is the problem, not the individual!
It would make no difference whether the Bernank, Timmaah, Summers or Dimon were running the Fed ... they are carrying out the policies of the shareholder owners (else they'd be replaced).
Similarly, it makes no difference whether Obomber is golfing, or Shrub is renovating his ranch, or Slick Willy is playing hide-the-sausage -- when they should be acting in the interests of the people who "elected" them. The corrupt puppet show will go on ... and on ... and on ... until the people take back their sovereignty from the Criminal Occupation Government in the Crime Capital, DC.
One step at a time, grasshopper.
Replacing Bernanke with Dimon, Summers or Rubin is a step? Replacing Trichet with Draghi was a step? Gimme a break!
Would you please stop shaping your argument/agenda out of my words? Thanks.
I'll stop when you stop putting your foot in your mouth. Carry on.
That is fact. I am sure cnbc will have this chart on the air any minute now. Because truth is ahead of advertisers. Ahem!
Actually a few CNBC commentators occasionally mention ZeroHedge and an article that was featured. Remember their owner - MSNBC.
Given the eternal central planner belief that they have the answers SOMEWHERE, it is not the least bit of a surprise that B & Company think that "now" they have the right solution. Undeniably the best comment of the day: "endless central planning may have finally broken traditional economic assumptions".
The central planners will still be quoting theory as they sell their last painting for a loaf of bread.
You guys ever wonder how Zero Hedge digs all this stuff up in such a timely manner. Must have a staff of 100 traversing the entire planet. Amazing site.
I agree this site is awesome. I can only hope more people get tuned in as November is dangerously close.
What's supposed to happen in November?
http://clark.patch.com/events/fun-on-a-string-puppet-show-november-6th-c...
My sentiments exactly. Why are 99% of the 99% so ignorant of the world around them?
shear fcking genius
Futures indicate green lights bitchez!
Of course.....it's tradition.
I need a hint....
Use your (real) muppet training -- think "one of these things is not like the others".
Last chart looks like the squids tentacles reaching for air.
Thanks for the charts TD.
So the red line (official unemployment number) is a bureaucratic trick that doesn't represent the real state of affairs. Anyone quoting it is either clueless or a liar.
Do I understand that correctly?
OT: *PLOSSER SAYS BIG BANKS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO FAIL
Oh no, did he just say that...
comic relief.
Now bring in the rest of the clowns.
Should != Must
Just to provide some (obvious) balance to this article - prior cycles didn't have 10,000 Baby Boomers per day hanging up their hats and calling it a day. Also, the U.S. manufacturing base also wasn't as gutted as it is today. All those people with some college or less, who previously used to be able to make a decent middle class living by working with their hands and backs, now have nowhere to go but Wal-Mart, McDonald's or the TSA. But don't tell that to globalization pundits whose answers to such structural unemployment is, "Aggressive re-retraining to meet the demands of a new economy."
300,000 baby boomers (allegedly/ voluntarily) hanging up their hats monthly.
My rough guesstimates from census data (1/5 of the 15-19 year olds) turning 18 every month is 375,000 kids entering adulthood that need jobs.
Add legal immigration estimated to be between 70 and 100k a month, now throw in a few thousand illegals.
Anyway you slice it, the labor participation rate doesn't lie and the boomers retirement isn't enough to keep up with growth.
Drive around your town and realize that it isn't just the boomer's that are closing the small businesses and taking the jobs with them.
No matter what Benny tells us.
For your consideration, annual growth rates in the U.S. population:
U.S. Population Projections (Census Bureau) - http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/2009cnmsSumTabs.html
U.S. Population, Historical - http://www.npg.org/facts/us_historical_pops.htm
expanding vagina
I'd generally support printing if it, you know, actually hit my fuckin' pocket.
Instead, all we will get is rising Oil prices and a stinkin' T-shirt.
As I said before: If government want to rig pricas through the money supply, they need to devise a system that distributes freshly printed fiat in a fair way.
If they can't do that, then they need to get the hell out of economic goals (i.e. manipulations) all in all!
A little more than a year ago ...
... no one would have predicted the idea of a 9.0 earthquake moving the island of Japan 30 feet to the east, a resultant tsunami sweeping modern cities from the map and a nuclear accident surpassing Chernobyl unfolding due to governmental denial of the reality unfolding before the world's eyes.
Today, the Lords of the Universe see nothing but irrationally exuberant market futures but ...
... the building inflationary pressures will be released soon so violently they will snap the Treasury Yield curve while the willfully ignored fact that "REALITY CAUSES RECESSIONS/DEPRESSIONS" prepares to rend global markets and cause social disruptions on a global scale never seen before.
A year ago, nature proved how inconsequential mankind's defenses are against its eternal realities.
Before too long, reality denied by Central Banks and government "pipsqueaks" (calling them leaders would be obscene) by their inconsequential "economic firewalls" and fiscal peversions will throw the combined global markets back into their appropriate equilibrium states shattering their ability to function for at least a decade.
The difference is the first was completely unpredictable while the second has been demonstrated repeatedly over the last 5,000 years but ignored as never before.
barliman
And what do you get when a bunch of pompous, useless psychopath assholes are running the big banks & fed? Crap & more crap.
This is the structural employment problem that Fed Policy can't fix:
Corporations hire Chinese, sell goods to Americans on decent margins, then lend American consumers the money at 29% to buy these products....while laying them off to offshore their jobs.
The wealthy in this nation are making money by having money. They are squeezing every last dime out of the population while creating no new demand or employment.
Fed policy won't change this. If consumers stop buying and stop borrowing...things will get worse even quicker.
It's a structural problem that needs to be addressed with laws.
If the "cyclical" economy is due to the "structural" idiocy of Fed planning, then what's the difference between structural and cyclical? None!
The whole trade with China etc is deficit financed. Fix the deficit by fixing the currency and suddenly there will be a little "incentive" to work, because when the money cannot be printed, it has to be earned before spending.
I disagree!!! Its the lack of enforcing laws not the need for more that will fix this problem. The present laws only apply to the wee people. More laws for the wee people will not fix the problem. Pleeeeezzzeee!!!
Hang a few bankers and politicans and things might turn around damn fast!!!!
You had me up to the "laws" part.
The government's laws have created this mess (lead law, USDA law, anti-supplement laws/regs, etc), and you actually think that some new "law" could fix it?
At this point the laws are the problems.
The solutions cannot possibly be the same exact thing as the problems, it isn't logical.
I'd print more paper 'cause it's the cheapest way to handle this deflationary death spiral.
I'm a cheap bastard.
Look At the slopes:
Unemployment rate and labor force participation rates are trending down identically.
Further confirmation of what we already know about any 'improvements' in the unemployment rate, and a forward indicator for much more pain to come.