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Spot The Odd Labor Market Out

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier this morning, strategically timed just in advance of the Chairman's tacit admission that everything attempted to date has once again failed to stimulate the economy as now both housing and soon employment have resume their drop, New York Fed released a note titled "Prospects for the U.S. Labor Market" which in not so many words explains why there are none. While the analysis is the same that has been presented here over and over, confirming that the jobs recovery has been anything but, and thus setting the stage for today's Bernanke preannouncement to either a March NFP miss or more QE at the April FOMC meeting as Bill Gross tweeted yesterday, it has one chart that shows why when it comes to restoring a virtuous cycle this time is different, and why endless central planning may have finally broken traditional economic assumptions. The chart below is perhaps the only one worth noting. Spot the odd "recovery" out.

Needless to say, according to the Chairman of the printing committee the fix is a simple one: more printing.

 

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Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:06 | 2290516 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Ugly....

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:25 | 2290562 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

So basically it got really bad in 2009........what else happened then?

 

Hmmm.....I can't really think of anything at the moment.

 

Oh wait......that's when the hope AND the change kicked it.....BOOM WINNING!!!!

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:27 | 2290590 Chief KnocAHoma
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Everybody just calm down... Obama has it all under control.

Just like all great leaders he took time to point out that if he had a son he would look just like Trevon... spreading calm in an inflamitory environment.

Oh... and he picked UNC to win the NCAA tournament. He truly is the smartest man in the room, at least if there is no one else in the room with him.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:33 | 2290613 GetZeeGold
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Right after another round of gold......it's all about pacing yourself.

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:51 | 2290671 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Last chart on the right looks like an angry pitchfork!

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:53 | 2290682 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Yes.....but I don't think it's politically correct to point that out.

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 11:03 | 2291000 Dan Conway
Dan Conway's picture

That pitchfork feels like it is stuck in my back!

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:47 | 2290660 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

To be clear... The down votes you get won't be from Obama supporters, rather those who recognize that it's all a charade with nothing but banker puppets as far as the eye on the dollar bill can see.  Central banks love when you make it political.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:08 | 2290526 Rusty.Shackleford
Rusty.Shackleford's picture

That picture says 15 trillion words

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:12 | 2290549 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

16, but at those levels, normal people stop counting.

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:16 | 2290565 Rusty.Shackleford
Rusty.Shackleford's picture

yeah whats a trillion anyway

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:08 | 2290527 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

printing=$5 gas. jobs lost and deeper depression.  but at least no bankers will ever be convicted for their crimes  against capitalism.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:27 | 2290593 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

more important to the bankers are the bonuses being preserved.  Jobs and crimes are not a worry when you have CONgress and every regulatory agency in your back pocket.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:08 | 2290528 Sathington Willougby
Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:09 | 2290529 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Yup, and what if we plot welfare spending (Medicaid, UC extension and SNAP) and diffusion against the above charts?   Gee, I wonder if we'll see the cause....

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:11 | 2290540 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Great point, what will happen to SNAP spending when food cost soar again?  Long JPM!

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:12 | 2290550 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

people will simply starve and die.  bernanke is a genocidal, printing monster.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:19 | 2290574 kill switch
kill switch's picture

Regarding Walmart shoppers,,I've posted this before,,good vid plugs ZH..

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_profilepage&v=cJg99tGolNI

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:09 | 2290534 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Long black markets and all things physical.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:50 | 2290667 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Hey... the last chart is butt ugly! All Hail Globalization and Offshore Manufacturing.

Used to be the motto was "Raise All Ships", new normal is "Sink the Bastards"

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:16 | 2290537 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

hard to fudge that one, BLS....seems to unequivocally reflect the 6 million or so who have given up looking/working and have been dropped from the roles. attention all "useless eaters": your rations are being cut.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:11 | 2290542 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Until such time as Bernanke is removed from the Eccles buildinig, this situation will only continue to deteriorate.  Remember all that cash on the sidelines?  If a reference to that cash is warranted, it is so because normal corporate operations simply cannot resume while Bernanke is doing his thing and DC is spending itself into debt oblivion...both.  While you can change your market position in a nanosecond based on Bernanke's public statements, you cannot change corporate policies at the same pace.  Duh.

And so the unrepentant Federal Reserve Chairman IS THE PROBLEM.  And he just renewed his commitment to his utterly destructive policies.

Roll on Greater American Depression...roll on.  We all best start learning how to hop moving freight trains.

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 10:30 | 2290644 i-dog
i-dog's picture

 

"Until such time as Bernanke is removed from the Eccles buildinig..."

Correction: "Until such time as the Eccles Building is removed from the economy..."

Why do otherwise seemingly intelligent ZHers keep perpetuating the "myth of the man"!?!?

It's the institution/system that is the problem, not the individual!

It would make no difference whether the Bernank, Timmaah, Summers or Dimon were running the Fed ... they are carrying out the policies of the shareholder owners (else they'd be replaced).

Similarly, it makes no difference whether Obomber is golfing, or Shrub is renovating his ranch, or Slick Willy is playing hide-the-sausage -- when they should be acting in the interests of the people who "elected" them. The corrupt puppet show will go on ... and on ... and on ... until the people take back their sovereignty from the Criminal Occupation Government in the Crime Capital, DC.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 10:41 | 2290861 Cdad
Cdad's picture

One step at a time, grasshopper.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 11:08 | 2291025 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Replacing Bernanke with Dimon, Summers or Rubin is a step? Replacing Trichet with Draghi was a step? Gimme a break!

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 13:08 | 2291527 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Would you please stop shaping your argument/agenda out of my words?  Thanks.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 20:17 | 2292959 i-dog
i-dog's picture

I'll stop when you stop putting your foot in your mouth. Carry on.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:11 | 2290545 monopoly
monopoly's picture

That is fact. I am sure cnbc will have this chart on the air any minute now. Because truth is ahead of advertisers. Ahem!

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:14 | 2290556 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Actually a few CNBC commentators occasionally mention ZeroHedge and an article that was featured.   Remember their owner - MSNBC.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:12 | 2290547 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Given the eternal central planner belief that they have the answers SOMEWHERE, it is not the least bit of a surprise that B & Company think that "now" they have the right solution.  Undeniably the best comment of the day:  "endless central planning may have finally broken traditional economic assumptions".

The central planners will still be quoting theory as they sell their last painting for a loaf of bread.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:14 | 2290555 monopoly
monopoly's picture

You guys ever wonder how Zero Hedge digs all this stuff up in such a timely manner. Must have a staff of 100 traversing the entire planet. Amazing site.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:47 | 2290663 irie1029
irie1029's picture

I agree this site is awesome.  I can only hope more people get tuned in as November is dangerously close.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 10:27 | 2290763 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

What's supposed to happen in November?

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 10:30 | 2290780 nowhereman
nowhereman's picture

My sentiments exactly.  Why are 99% of the 99% so ignorant of the world around them?

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:17 | 2290558 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

shear fcking genius

 

If the employment-to-population ratio continues to be sluggish as the unemployment rate declines (suggesting that flows to nonparticipation are important in driving the unemployment rate decline), then the unemployment rate will emerge as an increasingly less reliable measure of the health of the labor market.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:16 | 2290560 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Futures indicate green lights bitchez!

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:18 | 2290570 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Of course.....it's tradition.

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:19 | 2290572 Iam Rich
Iam Rich's picture

I need a hint....

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:37 | 2290627 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Use your (real) muppet training -- think "one of these things is not like the others".

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:20 | 2290577 gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Last chart looks like the squids tentacles reaching for air.

Thanks for the charts TD.

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:21 | 2290581 Koffieshop
Koffieshop's picture

So the red line (official unemployment number) is a bureaucratic trick that doesn't represent the real state of affairs. Anyone quoting it is either clueless or a liar.
Do I understand that correctly?

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:23 | 2290582 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

OT: *PLOSSER SAYS BIG BANKS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO FAIL

Oh no, did he just say that...

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 10:08 | 2290715 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

comic relief.

Now bring in the rest of the clowns.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 11:25 | 2291104 exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

Should != Must

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:25 | 2290587 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

Just to provide some (obvious) balance to this article - prior cycles didn't have 10,000 Baby Boomers per day hanging up their hats and calling it a day.  Also, the U.S. manufacturing base also wasn't as gutted as it is today.  All those people with some college or less, who previously used to be able to make a decent middle class living by working with their hands and backs, now have nowhere to go but Wal-Mart, McDonald's or the TSA.  But don't tell that to globalization pundits whose answers to such structural unemployment is, "Aggressive re-retraining to meet the demands of a new economy."

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 15:02 | 2291980 TeresaE
TeresaE's picture

300,000 baby boomers (allegedly/ voluntarily) hanging up their hats monthly.

My rough guesstimates from census data (1/5 of the 15-19 year olds) turning 18 every month is 375,000 kids entering adulthood that need jobs.

Add legal immigration estimated to be between 70 and 100k a month, now throw in a few thousand illegals.

Anyway you slice it, the labor participation rate doesn't lie and the boomers retirement isn't enough to keep up with growth.

Drive around your town and realize that it isn't just the boomer's that are closing the small businesses and taking the jobs with them.

No matter what Benny tells us.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 15:57 | 2292172 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

For your consideration, annual growth rates in the U.S. population:

U.S. Population Projections (Census Bureau) - http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/2009cnmsSumTabs.html 

U.S. Population, Historical - http://www.npg.org/facts/us_historical_pops.htm 

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:41 | 2290638 bania
bania's picture

expanding vagina

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:46 | 2290659 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I'd generally support printing if it, you know, actually hit my fuckin' pocket.

Instead, all we will get is rising Oil prices and a stinkin' T-shirt.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 11:00 | 2290978 andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

As I said before: If government want to rig pricas through the money supply, they need to devise a system that distributes freshly printed fiat in a fair way.

If they can't do that, then they need to get the hell out of economic goals (i.e. manipulations) all in all!

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:49 | 2290665 barliman
barliman's picture

 

A little more than a year ago ...

... no one would have predicted the idea of a 9.0 earthquake moving the island of Japan 30 feet to the east, a resultant tsunami sweeping modern cities from the map and a nuclear accident surpassing Chernobyl unfolding due to governmental denial of the reality unfolding before the world's eyes.

Today, the Lords of the Universe see nothing but irrationally exuberant market futures but ...

... the building inflationary pressures will be released soon so violently they will snap the Treasury Yield curve while the willfully ignored fact that "REALITY CAUSES RECESSIONS/DEPRESSIONS" prepares to rend global markets and cause social disruptions on a global scale never seen before.

A year ago, nature proved how inconsequential mankind's defenses are against its eternal realities.

Before too long, reality denied by Central Banks and government "pipsqueaks" (calling them leaders would be obscene) by their inconsequential "economic  firewalls" and fiscal peversions will throw the combined global markets back into their appropriate equilibrium states shattering their ability to function for at least a decade.

The difference is the first was completely unpredictable while the second has been demonstrated repeatedly over the last 5,000 years but ignored as never before.

barliman

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 09:58 | 2290696 sasebo
sasebo's picture

And what do you get when a bunch of pompous, useless psychopath assholes are running the big banks & fed? Crap & more crap. 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 10:12 | 2290723 batterycharged
batterycharged's picture

This is the structural employment problem that Fed Policy can't fix:

Corporations hire Chinese, sell goods to Americans on decent margins, then lend American consumers the money at 29% to buy these products....while laying them off to offshore their jobs.

The wealthy in this nation are making money by having money. They are squeezing every last dime out of the population while creating no new demand or employment.

Fed policy won't change this. If consumers stop buying and stop borrowing...things will get worse even quicker.

It's a structural problem that needs to be addressed with laws.

 

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 10:28 | 2290766 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

If the "cyclical" economy is due to the "structural" idiocy of Fed planning, then what's the difference between structural and cyclical? None!

The whole trade with China etc is deficit financed. Fix the deficit by fixing the currency and suddenly there will be a little "incentive" to work, because when the money cannot be printed, it has to be earned before spending.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 13:15 | 2291560 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

I disagree!!!  Its the lack of enforcing laws not the need for more that will fix this problem. The present laws only apply to the wee people. More laws for the wee people will not fix the problem. Pleeeeezzzeee!!!

 

Hang a few bankers and politicans and things might turn around damn fast!!!!

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 14:51 | 2291945 TeresaE
TeresaE's picture

You had me up to the "laws" part.

The government's laws have created this mess (lead law, USDA law, anti-supplement laws/regs, etc), and you actually think that some new "law" could fix it?

At this point the laws are the problems.

The solutions cannot possibly be the same exact thing as the problems, it isn't logical.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 10:20 | 2290744 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

I'd print more paper 'cause it's the cheapest way to handle this deflationary death spiral.

I'm a cheap bastard.

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 14:32 | 2291884 Number 156
Number 156's picture

Look At the slopes:

Unemployment rate and labor force participation rates are trending down identically.

Further confirmation of what we already know about any 'improvements' in the unemployment rate, and a forward indicator for much more pain to come. 

 

 

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