Spot The Odd Labor Market Out

Tyler Durden's picture

Earlier this morning, strategically timed just in advance of the Chairman's tacit admission that everything attempted to date has once again failed to stimulate the economy as now both housing and soon employment have resume their drop, New York Fed released a note titled "Prospects for the U.S. Labor Market" which in not so many words explains why there are none. While the analysis is the same that has been presented here over and over, confirming that the jobs recovery has been anything but, and thus setting the stage for today's Bernanke preannouncement to either a March NFP miss or more QE at the April FOMC meeting as Bill Gross tweeted yesterday, it has one chart that shows why when it comes to restoring a virtuous cycle this time is different, and why endless central planning may have finally broken traditional economic assumptions. The chart below is perhaps the only one worth noting. Spot the odd "recovery" out.

Needless to say, according to the Chairman of the printing committee the fix is a simple one: more printing.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
GetZeeGold's picture



So basically it got really bad in 2009........what else happened then?


Hmmm.....I can't really think of anything at the moment.


Oh wait......that's when the hope AND the change kicked it.....BOOM WINNING!!!!


Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Everybody just calm down... Obama has it all under control.

Just like all great leaders he took time to point out that if he had a son he would look just like Trevon... spreading calm in an inflamitory environment.

Oh... and he picked UNC to win the NCAA tournament. He truly is the smartest man in the room, at least if there is no one else in the room with him.

GetZeeGold's picture



Right after another round of's all about pacing yourself.


Ying-Yang's picture

Last chart on the right looks like an angry pitchfork!

GetZeeGold's picture



Yes.....but I don't think it's politically correct to point that out.


Dan Conway's picture

That pitchfork feels like it is stuck in my back!

kridkrid's picture

To be clear... The down votes you get won't be from Obama supporters, rather those who recognize that it's all a charade with nothing but banker puppets as far as the eye on the dollar bill can see.  Central banks love when you make it political.

Rusty.Shackleford's picture

That picture says 15 trillion words

Sudden Debt's picture

16, but at those levels, normal people stop counting.


101 years and counting's picture

printing=$5 gas. jobs lost and deeper depression.  but at least no bankers will ever be convicted for their crimes  against capitalism.

LongSoupLine's picture



more important to the bankers are the bonuses being preserved.  Jobs and crimes are not a worry when you have CONgress and every regulatory agency in your back pocket.

Sophist Economicus's picture

Yup, and what if we plot welfare spending (Medicaid, UC extension and SNAP) and diffusion against the above charts?   Gee, I wonder if we'll see the cause....

LawsofPhysics's picture

Great point, what will happen to SNAP spending when food cost soar again?  Long JPM!

101 years and counting's picture

people will simply starve and die.  bernanke is a genocidal, printing monster.

kill switch's picture

Regarding Walmart shoppers,,I've posted this before,,good vid plugs ZH..

LawsofPhysics's picture

Long black markets and all things physical.

Ying-Yang's picture

Hey... the last chart is butt ugly! All Hail Globalization and Offshore Manufacturing.

Used to be the motto was "Raise All Ships", new normal is "Sink the Bastards"

Yardfarmer's picture

hard to fudge that one, BLS....seems to unequivocally reflect the 6 million or so who have given up looking/working and have been dropped from the roles. attention all "useless eaters": your rations are being cut.

Cdad's picture

Until such time as Bernanke is removed from the Eccles buildinig, this situation will only continue to deteriorate.  Remember all that cash on the sidelines?  If a reference to that cash is warranted, it is so because normal corporate operations simply cannot resume while Bernanke is doing his thing and DC is spending itself into debt oblivion...both.  While you can change your market position in a nanosecond based on Bernanke's public statements, you cannot change corporate policies at the same pace.  Duh.

And so the unrepentant Federal Reserve Chairman IS THE PROBLEM.  And he just renewed his commitment to his utterly destructive policies.

Roll on Greater American Depression...roll on.  We all best start learning how to hop moving freight trains.


i-dog's picture


"Until such time as Bernanke is removed from the Eccles buildinig..."

Correction: "Until such time as the Eccles Building is removed from the economy..."

Why do otherwise seemingly intelligent ZHers keep perpetuating the "myth of the man"!?!?

It's the institution/system that is the problem, not the individual!

It would make no difference whether the Bernank, Timmaah, Summers or Dimon were running the Fed ... they are carrying out the policies of the shareholder owners (else they'd be replaced).

Similarly, it makes no difference whether Obomber is golfing, or Shrub is renovating his ranch, or Slick Willy is playing hide-the-sausage -- when they should be acting in the interests of the people who "elected" them. The corrupt puppet show will go on ... and on ... and on ... until the people take back their sovereignty from the Criminal Occupation Government in the Crime Capital, DC.

Cdad's picture

One step at a time, grasshopper.

i-dog's picture

Replacing Bernanke with Dimon, Summers or Rubin is a step? Replacing Trichet with Draghi was a step? Gimme a break!

Cdad's picture

Would you please stop shaping your argument/agenda out of my words?  Thanks.

i-dog's picture

I'll stop when you stop putting your foot in your mouth. Carry on.

monopoly's picture

That is fact. I am sure cnbc will have this chart on the air any minute now. Because truth is ahead of advertisers. Ahem!

smb12321's picture

Actually a few CNBC commentators occasionally mention ZeroHedge and an article that was featured.   Remember their owner - MSNBC.

smb12321's picture

Given the eternal central planner belief that they have the answers SOMEWHERE, it is not the least bit of a surprise that B & Company think that "now" they have the right solution.  Undeniably the best comment of the day:  "endless central planning may have finally broken traditional economic assumptions".

The central planners will still be quoting theory as they sell their last painting for a loaf of bread.

monopoly's picture

You guys ever wonder how Zero Hedge digs all this stuff up in such a timely manner. Must have a staff of 100 traversing the entire planet. Amazing site.

irie1029's picture

I agree this site is awesome.  I can only hope more people get tuned in as November is dangerously close.

AN0NYM0US's picture

shear fcking genius


If the employment-to-population ratio continues to be sluggish as the unemployment rate declines (suggesting that flows to nonparticipation are important in driving the unemployment rate decline), then the unemployment rate will emerge as an increasingly less reliable measure of the health of the labor market.

Zymurguy's picture

Futures indicate green lights bitchez!

GetZeeGold's picture



Of's tradition.


Iam Rich's picture

I need a hint....

WmMcK's picture

Use your (real) muppet training -- think "one of these things is not like the others".

gookempucky's picture

Last chart looks like the squids tentacles reaching for air.

Thanks for the charts TD.


Koffieshop's picture

So the red line (official unemployment number) is a bureaucratic trick that doesn't represent the real state of affairs. Anyone quoting it is either clueless or a liar.
Do I understand that correctly?

Dick Darlington's picture


Oh no, did he just say that...

Vince Clortho's picture

comic relief.

Now bring in the rest of the clowns.

Excursionist's picture

Just to provide some (obvious) balance to this article - prior cycles didn't have 10,000 Baby Boomers per day hanging up their hats and calling it a day.  Also, the U.S. manufacturing base also wasn't as gutted as it is today.  All those people with some college or less, who previously used to be able to make a decent middle class living by working with their hands and backs, now have nowhere to go but Wal-Mart, McDonald's or the TSA.  But don't tell that to globalization pundits whose answers to such structural unemployment is, "Aggressive re-retraining to meet the demands of a new economy."

TeresaE's picture

300,000 baby boomers (allegedly/ voluntarily) hanging up their hats monthly.

My rough guesstimates from census data (1/5 of the 15-19 year olds) turning 18 every month is 375,000 kids entering adulthood that need jobs.

Add legal immigration estimated to be between 70 and 100k a month, now throw in a few thousand illegals.

Anyway you slice it, the labor participation rate doesn't lie and the boomers retirement isn't enough to keep up with growth.

Drive around your town and realize that it isn't just the boomer's that are closing the small businesses and taking the jobs with them.

No matter what Benny tells us.

Excursionist's picture

For your consideration, annual growth rates in the U.S. population:

U.S. Population Projections (Census Bureau) - 

U.S. Population, Historical - 


bania's picture

expanding vagina

Shizzmoney's picture

I'd generally support printing if it, you know, actually hit my fuckin' pocket.

Instead, all we will get is rising Oil prices and a stinkin' T-shirt.