This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

November Chicago PMI 62.6 Better Than Expectations Of 58.5

Tyler Durden's picture


The barrage of better than expected "everything" is relentless.November PMI comes at 62.6, higher than 58.4 before, and a beat of Consensus 58.5. Highest since April. This also means that the ISM will almost certainly be an upside "surprise" imminently. And with the miraculous outlier print from the ADP it was only logical that the employment index in the PMI would print... lower, from 62.3 to 56.9. No data makes sense anymore, so just buy: after all there is no risk. Fed will bail everyone out.

The largest driver of this outlier print is the New Orders sub-index which jumped impressively from 61.3 to 70.2. Most of the other sub-indices were flat to down even (including a big drop in employment!). New Orders jumped to their highest since March, but it seems very obvious when we look at the seasonality (pre-2008) of the sub-index that August to November tends to see a consistent and positive bias over time as we suspect this is simply pre-holidays ordering.The charts below show the average move by month and then this year's move comparatively.

The last month or two has seen a very volatile time series and it seems very clear that orders were left until the last minute due to economic uncertainty and the bounce in stocks perhaps provided the confidence to get that inventory in. The move in this month's New Orders sub-index looks like a catch-up to the drop of last month in what is a seasonal period and furthermore will seasonally drop away after this into year-end (especially as we have commented on the demand issues that we are seeing post Black Friday in LCD screens etc.).


More shortly.


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:47 | 1929872 Racer
Racer's picture

They got to have their xmas bonuses

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:52 | 1929899 SHEEPFUKKER

Turkey rally got stuffed.   

Let's try Christmas??

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:48 | 1929874 machineh
machineh's picture

Evidently S&P's bank downgrades of last night made the authorities really, really angry.

They are responding with a massive, full-spectrum show of force.

We control the horizontal and the vertical -- do not adjust your set!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:52 | 1929898 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

This is the epic finale of the fireworks, where the big rockets go off.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 13:38 | 1931099 trav7777
trav7777's picture

like the moon easter egg on COD BO?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 13:46 | 1931151 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

heh, I never got that far, BO bored the shit out of me. far too much of a "on a track" game for my liking...

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:48 | 1929875 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

LOL.  They really want a Merry Christmas.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:58 | 1929946 SHEEPFUKKER

PM's being held down.......errrrrrrrrrrrr, underperforming.  Grinch

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:49 | 1929877 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

If something sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:00 | 1929957 SHEEPFUKKER

Financials fading after the open. Ho, ho, ho. 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:49 | 1929878 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

Boy, they really are taking this "Santa Claus Rally" thing to heart this year!  i'm picturing TPTB caroling:  "yes we need a little christmas, right this very moment, we need a little christmastime"

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:50 | 1929882 SAME AS IT EVER WAS

Who is the best fiddle player in all the world?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:50 | 1929883 Kina
Kina's picture
Chicago PMI 62.6

Bwah haha ha ha ha haahahahaha...... why not 162.6 ?

No imagination.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:51 | 1929886 Aunty Christ
Aunty Christ's picture

with numbers like that, I would love to hear how the Fed's inflationistas ( Yellen,Evans,Dudley et al) justify more QE...

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:54 | 1929915 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Janet Yellen said there is considerably more room for easing (despite a suspiciously and allegedly strong Chicago PMI number), because they're still waiting on the Ozark Mountain Region PMI, which she expects to beat expectations by less than 27 standard deviations.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:05 | 1929987 fuu
fuu's picture

Fucking classic.

"which she expects to beat expectations by less than 27 standard deviations."

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:23 | 1930113 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

Truth your comments are multiple standards above the mean. Bravo!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:57 | 1929938 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Because the banks still are in trouble, and need to bailed out through the backdoor yet again?

No, that wouldn't be the PUBLIC justification, but then you didn't ask for that.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:51 | 1929888 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

GS and BAC up a whole 4%. Impressive. [/sarcasm]

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:51 | 1929889 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Soooo...swap lines are now closed since all is well right?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:51 | 1929891 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Bye bye "crisis" and doombloggers. Up for a new boom. Be honest folks, by now the Total Collapse should have come. Merry Advent.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:54 | 1929919 Barometer
Barometer's picture

Why the need for the swap line then? I recommend you panic...

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:08 | 1930005 kito
kito's picture

lookingwithamazement is one of those closet/latent doomers.............

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:51 | 1929892 Johnny Yuma
Johnny Yuma's picture

Market manipulation is never permanent. Fade the fuckers, lol!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:06 | 1929996 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

I'm just waiting for it to stall a bit and then I'll throw on a position with some wiggle room for it to continue going up a bit before it crashes.  When the market figures out that this fixes nothing the fall should be epic

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:51 | 1929893 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I legitimately hope we see a 6% rise in equities going into Friday.

Entertain me, markets.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:52 | 1929896 tradebot
tradebot's picture

Can you imagine what would happen the minute they stop with the marching out of all the experts to assure us that everything is well and good?  When do they run out of these people??? 

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:52 | 1929897 Great Depressio...
Great Depression Trader's picture

Poor poor shorts :(

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:10 | 1930017 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

PM markets are fully controlled now I guess.  They won't go anywhere. Crime Syndicate FTW.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 20:27 | 1933213 luna_man
luna_man's picture


"Great Depressio..."


If, I couldn't stand the heat, I would stay out of the kitchen!...


patience, is a virtue



Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:53 | 1929900 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

gotta print money and massage the statistically meaningless data upward to build CONfidence for the consumer spending holiday season!

this swap bullshit is pure admission to a major liquidity freeze.  half life on this wont last through december.  major banks will fail after.  only the ones that having been sucking off bernank will get more of a "bailout".

2012 - the hyperinflationary greatest depression begins

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:53 | 1929906 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Everything is great now! Problems are all solved again!

So does that mean my contract will be extended at the end of the year, instead of not being renewed, which currently is the position I am in? Does this also mean that the other 1,500 or so people that are supposed to be terminated at my company, won't be, either? And that my partner also will be getting a job really soon after over 2 years of being without one, and three months since his unemployment benefits expired?

I mean, if the world has been saved, that must mean all of our jobs have been saved, too, and that we should expect to see at least one million jobs created each and every month from here to eternity in the USofA.

Right? Right? RIGHT!?

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:30 | 1930170 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

How in the hell could somebody junk this comment?

Write a comment too, so I can at least somewhat know who has the guts to junk a comment like this one.

I hope you lose your job, too, if you already haven't.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 13:18 | 1930988 mspgrandi
mspgrandi's picture

World hasnt been saved... but really there is not correlation between the financial markets and the job cuts at your company

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 13:44 | 1931139 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Clearly, I'm an idiot, because I couldn't figure that one out on my own.

My original post was filled with sarcasm. Dripping with it, in fact.

But with all of the giddiness being portrayed in the CMSM, that's what we all are supposed to believe.

My whole point was, if everything is all better now, surely we all will be gainfully employed, with higher wages and healthcare coverage, and great vacation perks, too, in the coming months and years.

That's where I was coming from.

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:53 | 1929907 monopoly
monopoly's picture

And check out AMZN, how is this possible in Nirvana. Up 1%. 0

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:53 | 1929908 SDRII
SDRII's picture

same bullshit liquidity walk up behind the mask of "better" confidence markers. rinse wash repeat.  

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:54 | 1929914 common_sense
common_sense's picture


          VERY LARGE BULL SHIT  !!







Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:54 | 1929918 sabra1
sabra1's picture

credit agencies are part of the scam! the oldidorks plan #33 of the masons, is to create chaos, then bring in a controlled solution! they profit from both sides of a war! it's time to wage war against them, if anyone really feels like it!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:55 | 1929924 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Upside surprise in Chicago correlate with obama gallop numbers

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:55 | 1929928 common_sense
common_sense's picture






Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:56 | 1929930 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Cue RoboMomoRearViewPaperTraderFader in 3.....2......1.....

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:59 | 1929953 Great Depressio...
Great Depression Trader's picture


Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:00 | 1929958 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

FYI he prefers Max Fischer these days...

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 10:58 | 1929948 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

More lies!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:11 | 1929992 common_sense
common_sense's picture





Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:13 | 1930031 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Hahahaa, we have truly and deeply entered into the central planner twilightzone squared!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:16 | 1930049 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

My honest opinion is that US recovery has taken hold (in the real economy).  I have been positioned 85% or so net long (no fins) for some time and thought the market had it wrong the week before Thanksgiving. I experienced max pain that week! Economic data and talking to insiders led me to this conclusion.  The Euro has been a black cloud over US markets so I welcome this rally!

BTFD!  Merry Christmas!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 11:18 | 1930073 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Following is the text of U.S. online help wanted
advertising from the Conference Board.

Online Labor Demand Dips 76,200 in November, The Conference Board Reports
     Labor demand drops 76,200 in November for the sixth consecutive monthly loss
Average monthly gain for 2011 is 15,800 Nationally, there are 10 million more
unemployed than advertised vacancies Download the National Historical Table.
     Online advertised vacancies were down 76,200 in November to 3,857,200,
according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Data Series released today. The
November drop follows a dip of 14,000 in October and 44,000 in September. The
Supply/Demand rate stands at 3.53, indicating there were 3.5 unemployed for every
online advertised vacancy in October, the latest monthly data available for
    “The November decline in labor demand, following on the heels of the drops for
the previous five months, is not good news for the labor market,” said June Shelp,
Vice President at The Conference Board. The average monthly gain for 2011 is now
just 15,800, as the decline of 589,000 in recent months has largely offset the gain
of 763,000 in early 2011. The lackluster labor market is impacting a wide range of
occupations including the occupations we think of as professional jobs in companies
(Management, Business and Finance, and Computers and Math). All have lost ground
over the last six months, and the November online labor demand for each was modestly
below the number of advertised vacancies in January of this year. (See occupational
detail section.)


And what does ADP? Well it goes higher of course!

Wed, 11/30/2011 - 12:47 | 1930779 LarryDavis
LarryDavis's picture

It seems safe to say that manufacturing activity is increasing the US. The employment picture echoes this.....

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!