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The Numbers That Matter: $15,564,809,891,768 And $8.354 Billion
Without wasting our readers' time, here are the only two numbers that matter today:
- $15,564,809,891,767.99 - This is how high record US federal debt is as of today. Although "record" and "US debt" in the same sentence is now redundant. So just debt. (source)
- $8.354 billion. This is how much net US tax revenues (net of refunds of course) are lower in fiscal 2012 to date compared to the same period in 2011. In this Bizarro world, economic recovery is apparently based on weaker numbers (source).
The chart below proves without doubt that converting one well-paying job into two jobs that combined pay less, is uber bullish for stocks.
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CORZINE 2012
MAKE HIM VISIBLE
Friday afternoon optimism - There's good news. You just have to know where to look.
The wheels of statist control are already coming off. Be hopeful. Would you have thought, assuming that you had been aware of what The Federal Reserve really is and represents, that animus towards and awareness of The Federal Reserve would grow like it has, a mere decade ago?
Escape velocity has already been reached at this point. The more they accelerate the actions that got us to where we are, the faster they kill the present system.
Robert David Steele (not a 'tin foiler': I dare anyone here to defy what he has to say at link below) predicted everything that's happening (he's not a 'savior' or 'prophet' - he's a former CIA & Military Intelligence Officer who founded The U.S. Marine Corps Intelligence Center).
He accurately predicted that intelligence services are coming after bloggers (years ago), because 80% of 'intelligence activity' is merely interpreting patterns, that bloggers and their readers have already sparked the next revolution (in whatever form it takes), and that central banks will fall. Gird your servers well, bitchez.
If you or people you talk to doubt that the U.S. form of government (a Republic - a form of representative government limited/constrained by the rule of constitutional law) is in serious jeopardy, you only need cite NDAA 2012 as proof [assuming the final check & balance that is the Supreme Court doesn't overturn it at first chance]. You don't need cite anything else, though you could find and cite much.
Check out what he says about Operation Trailblazer, Iraq, how congressman mapped out the exact cost that it would take lobbyists to 'buy' the U.S. government back in the 1990's, precisely what the role of The Federal Reserve is, and how incredibly clear and simple the solutions to what ails the CITIZENS of the United States and world are, and I challenge anyone to tell me or anyone else how and/or why, with specifics, he's wrong.
[Remember that the percentage of the population that needs to be aware is a fairly low threshold, historically around 3% (III) or so]:
Former CIA Agent's Message to America
TruthInSunshine,
You are one of the standard bearers for the new media expose, in my opinion. I enjoy everything you write. Your honest desire to keep up to date, yet write within historical context and integrity, is truly rare and admirable. You are a gift to anyone who seeks truth, and sunshine...our better days ahead if we seek the light of truth instead of serve the dark forces.
End the Fed, an alien transplant from the Bank of England, the Rothschilds, and their shadow world government The Trilateral Commission and its recruiting/marketing arm The Bilderberg Group.
The silly ambitious career politicians are easily manipulated by these psychopathic corporatists, and their warped fascist aim of a 'new world order, ruled by the globalist central bank cartel of New Feudalists, aided by their appointed 'intelligentsia' in national government, academia and law.
Filth, they are all filth, and the NDAA cynically signed on New Year's Eve 2012 is similiar to the founding of the unconstitutional privately owned 'Federal Reserve Board', signed into law at Christmas 1913 after a grateful political pet Wilson returned the favour for their campaign funds which made him U.S. President, although he lived to write about his lament that he had unwittingly betrayed his country, and independent political action was no longer possible because those who issue the 'credit' (The Fed, the old banking class of Britain and Europe, the Rothschilds et al) had absolute control over the nation.
Politics would be their toy henceforth, and so his lament has proved to be true.
End the Fed.
Thank you for the high praise.
I don't feel it's warranted.
There is a simple truth that more people are awakening to at a rate that's faster than at anytime prior in history: Any economic system using money as debt, and especially under the framework of fractional reserve lending practices, contains the very seed of its own death, at the moment of inception, as it is inherently & factually (as a matter of basic arithmetic) unsustainable.
We have already passed the point where real wealth can be created in greater amounts or at a faster clip than it is being consumed/destroyed. This is precisely the reason why the gold standard of backing fiat currency was abandoned (any resource having inherent value could have been substituted for gold; gold just happens to be compact, quite finite and it stores well; they could have had an oil standard or a platinum standard or even a copper standard).
All that is happening now is can-kicking exercises to allow those able to access fiat backed by nothing of value, conjured from thin air, enjoying legal monopoly status (making it liquid and accepted universally), to convert their paper to things of real value, before the inevitable collapse of currency (pick whatever fiat currency you like; they're all in a state of massive regression to zero).
I chose my avatar (End the Fed) because there is no commonly denoted symbol for full reserve banking (the antithesis to fractional reserve banking), which would force discipline and balance upon economies, as it would restrain the fiat gaming and inevitable impoverishment of the bulk of the population through fractional reserve banking practices.
Here's a very good clip to enjoy that speaks to what I'm referencing:
Money As DebtTruthinSunshine,
Me off to zzzzzz now, but must say this: it is warranted. You are an absolute darling. I'll read that link tomorrow.
Have a lovely weekend, 'truthinsunshine'. Thank you for the information, as per usual.
Ah ... the good old days!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=kUexsBNd96Y
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=M_3T-Af57Pg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=m_atOvrTtT8
The focus on Federal Debt is to some extent a distraction.
The US is being crushed by $54 trillion of federal, state, municipal, corporate, and consumer debt. The $15 trillion federal debt is only a portion of the debt monstrosity created by the Federal Reserve and the banking system.
Time for a write down and sound money:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1r-4.pdf
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/
We are pretty muched fucked. On Friday I just went all in and shorted USD against everything on my Armada Markets trading account. All muppets, sorry, all Goldman Sachs clients can take the either side of this trade.
Exponential growth bitchez!
i just logged in looking for today's friday humor i thought there was none today until i saw td's keyword for this post. you are getting subtle in your old age tyler
$200 - What oil will be priced at shortly.
.99, hahaha. That's hilarious. Just round that fucker up. Not like it's going to make a fucking dent or anything.
Maybe that's where it stopped?
Yeah really. Ten thousand is spent in the time it takes to write this sentence.
The .99 is there to remind all the 99% that they will be ultimately responsible for "paying off" this pile of shit.
lol .99. As if we're getting "a good deal" or something.
Aren't all charts that go up to the right bullish?
Why, yes - yes, they are!
Thank you for asking.
Can you buy calls on USA Debt numbers yet? It's gotta be a sure thing.
Gold tracks national debt. National debt tracks tax receipts - as the IRS collects more taxes, the Fed is willing to issue more debt - thus devaluing the dollar and driving up the price of gold - so if you are bullish on US debt, buy calls on GLD or physical gold with your cash...
You need to seasonally adjust your expectations.
Are these #'s seasonally adjusted?
sarc
It truley doesnt matter any more. We cant pay it back. It doesnt matter how far you are in debt if you cant pay the minimum. Adding more debt will not stop the collapse, it will not make it happen anytime sooner. When intrest rates rise - we cant pay the minimum. Dollar game over.
Oh it'll get paid. You better believe that. The Dollar just won't be worth anything.
That's why I hope it blows up sooner rather than later. I would rather take the pain than our kids who didn't have a say in the ponzi (not that we really did either but to fuck the kids is just crazy).
Pull of the bandaid and let's begin the repair.
All worse numbers then the Euro zone but "the dollar is still the best of the big currencies" yyeah right
do you have any effin clue about how demographics come into account in the sustainability of a ponzi?
No where near as bad as Europe. Not that this means its good just dont underestimate how bad Europe is.
The $15t includes nearly $3t owed to social security. Europes debt numbers dont. Pensions over there are generally pay as you go and are 100% unfunded. This is a big deal for their corporations too. They dont have big pension assets to draw on.
Demographics are 20 years ahead of US. We still have population growth over here thanks to immigration. Ponzi scheme that is SS should last 20 years longer then Europe.
Taxes as a % of GDP are less then 20% here vs nearly 50% in places like France. We can raise taxes to keep the system solvent. FRANCE cant.
We have already refinanced our banks and have taken a hit for Fannie and Freddie. IE our debt gaurantees are mainly on the books. Europrs arent. Just look at Greeces E100bbn of explicit debt gaurantees for nationalized industries like the RR. And add to that another E50bbn to ptop up their banks.
On an spples to apples basis US debt to GDP is 100% vs 125%+ in Europe.
hahaha, refinanced our banks... What a joke. We printed money, nothing else. Europe as a whole is a net creditor with NO TRADE DEFICIT. The US's forex reseerves would barely cover one months trade deficit
Much ado about... something? No matter the ZH headlines, seems to us simple and confused people that nothing ever really happens. Slow and steady as she goes... and on she goes. And on. And on. And on.
And on. And on. And on.
Until it doesn't.
So less than 900 billion before the debt ceiling bomb cometh. They better hope for less of those $50 billion jump days going forward or it will be a lot sooner rather than later. Sept likely and October at the latest.
The fall political bomb is right on track.
i heard that wars cost a lot. Piece of cake!
Have you seen any good analysis on when we will pass the debt ceiling taking into account treasury options. Will it be preelection?
who cares about debts when DOW is making new high!
LONG LIVE THE DOW!!
DOW is kinda like US Dick Length.
"Numbers suck, there's just too many of them."
Bevis & Butthead
rumor has it that Watsons computation abilities may be matched by the sheer enormity of the u.s. debt............
I googoled both numbers. USA came up on both of them.
Yo, please add on another $6.239 bil for our share of the IMF bailout of Greece approved this week.
Come on!. Make it 16 trillion!!!
OK: add on the 5-7 trillion of rotten paper parked at FM&FM: $22,000,000,000,000.
I was just thinking we would just wait 3 more months for that 16 trillion...
BUT I LIKE YOUR MATH EVEN MORE!!!!
I haven't taken the time, to thank you. Sudden Debt...
Thank You. I'm Grateful for your insight,. You inspired me to post on Z/H.
Have a Great Weekend , Sudden Debt.
if you are holding gold and silver, those numbers should give you a woody! (or make you wet downstairs, for the ladies here)
There are some matters within which gender neutrality is destructive, rather than constructive.
this topic has been flagged for discussion.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-17/if-you-are-holding-gold-and-sil...
State is truly an abomination.
I bet you guys laugh as hard at your official numbers in USA as i do here in Belarus.
There is an old soviet joke :
-We are now living better! - the state said.
-We are happy for you. - the people replied.
Or (Poland): "they pretend to pay us. we pretend to work"
Revolution proclaims a centrally planned economy in the Sahara Desert.
nothing happens.
few months later, a sand shortage.
What's a few trillion amongst friends?
Who cares its OPM.
Econ 102: Principles Of Biflationary Economics -
Prof Caviar - (2 credits and 3 debits)
All together, class:
Tax revenues?
Down! ....due to deflating real economy
Federal deficit?
Up! ....causing artificially elevated costs to businesses (margin squeeze) and consumers
Net Net??
Lose-Lose!! .....as buying power gets crushed
Caviar Emptor,
Happy weekend to your, and yours. The tide is turning. Those who swim naked will be stripped of their credibility. Good. Uncle Warren included.
Tip o the hat to you @ newengland. Yup, everybody's a muppet unless they take the red pill
Uncle Warren has been swimming naked for a while, that's why his #1 investment now is to buy access in DC. He knows he's fucked when it blows up.
At moments like this, I just love this Fight Club. Get straight to the point. Excellent.
I would like your input on this (or perhaps TD will do an article on it): We all know the ponzi will collapse, but as TD correctly points out the timing of any trade is the critical issue. So ... what signs would you look at for the inevitable collapse? Realize you are fighting the fed, which is always a lopsided battle, but even with all of their "tools" it will crack at some point. So what is the best tell that it's around the corner? Bad bond auctions, rising interest rates, a PIIG blows up, etc.??
Thanks for the input.
Oil at >$200/barrel------->global dollar dump----------->US hyperinflation------------->PonziCollapse. Coming soon, via IranWar. Over on the Israeli Cabinet war vote thread, somone posted info on 4 US minesweepers now being shipped to the Theatre of Operations. That is the Sign.
$1.59 can of solid white tuna (6 ounces) last fall, $2.59 in the same size and shape can but read the label, 5 ounces the rest is water, results= up just not quite 100% in 6 months.
The price of protein in my local Slaveway is all I need to know.
The plot's missing label for the horizontal axis is microlightseconds, and the vertical axis is Uranus radii.
I know what Ben's ultimate solution is: simply switch our number convention to the Euro system ... switch the commas and periods and all is solved.
Well spotted, TMT.
That was called decimilisation when it happened in Britain, changing from the guniea to the pound; and it was called the euro when changing from national currencies. Every time, it profits the banksters and makes the people poorer, including the financial industry which mistakenly thinks that it is immune from the silent thief of inflation and fiat money manipulation.
if these numbers no longer seem unreasonable...
...that's stockholm syndrome, right?
can we get meds for this shit? my kids are pissed i didn't explain banking to them while they were younger...
@ t_k: he rounded it up for the headline, at least!
tyler: keep drinking!
If the above chart is true, why has there been consistent net outflow from Mutual Funds for the past 3 years?
I agree with you. The [charlatan], answer would be ETF's. We both know how small that doorway is getting!
Last 14 months US gained (according to BLS) 2.2m jobs.
Now, holding constant for payroll tax cut which took place on Jan 1, 2011, tax revenues YTD 2012 are exactly $13B higher than 2011. Approximately 6% higher. Plus we have an extra day in 2012.
How does this even make sense?
It was just a ploy so the Feds could stop sending the States $$$ for long term unemployed.
http//www.postandcourier.com/news/2012/mar/16/fed-jobless-aid-ending-80000-sc-....
Gonna be a rough summer.
Why is it the " numbers" that matter , are the ones nobody want's to discuss? The U.S. debt issue is like a "politician {male}", waiting for the results of an " intern {females'}", EPT test in the Senate Locker Room <>
Take oil out off speculation. Observe the price of oil to see if it falls. Love the quote from the other 99%: if you took greed out of Wall Street all you'd have left is the pavement. rotfl
The numbers that count.-.-.-.-.-.-.-._>----------) Did the 16 Trillion $ bullet leave my head yet?
Just wait until the real economy turns into a black market.
What/when will be the bre/aking point?
Something serious should have taken place, so that the “Superpower" owes 15.5 trillion dollars. Such a "broke superpower" has never been before. The world has never seen before "World rulers" who surrender to pain because cancer medication costs. World rulers, who, when they lose their jobs, go straight to the “garbage”, have never existed not even in the years of Genghis Khan. There should be a problem somewhere and that’s what we are seeking. It’s not possible for someone to eat night and day and to risk dying of malnutrition. It is obviously that this person is severely “ill" and that’s what threatens him with death. This is the case in USA. They take advantage the resources of the whole planet and they have “managed" to be threatened today with bankruptcy. They are doing something wrong. Something is wrong in their “organism”. Some internal "cancerous" agent "sucks" all their inflow and lets them crawl to "death".
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html
.
recovery without taxes!
http://www.cnhedge.com/
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
These numbers seem small to me, bitchez.
.
A lot of women are posting. That scares me.
Tyler,
What is all of this nonsense?
What is your point in printing this?
And how do so many people on this site know so much and the rest of the world so little?
And what is the story with gold and silver----out of fashion when everyone here is stacking?
We are the really smart people om
Do NOT believe everything you read! :>D
Did someone else do the math?....Tyler said $8B less in 2012 compared to 2011. It appears to me it is $30B more in 2012 compared to 2011. Or about 3% higher taxes collected this fiscal year-to-date. Can anyone else verify Tyler's error? Or am I missing something?
I'm confused on which numbers Tyler is using also.
Is he using Table IV-Fed Tax Deposits total?
Because if that is the case i'm getting what mikem is getting, nearly 30 billion increase.
Here is the fiscal 2011 data upto march 15th.
https://fms.treas.gov/fmsweb/viewDTSFiles?dir=a&fname=11031500.pdf
I guess the "West Coast" is more delusional? TYLER?
Debt for fiscal year starting October 1 2011 till March 15 2012 : 774.46 billion or 4.66 billion/day ($15.04/day/citizen) or ($1.705 trillion deficit)
Debt for calendar year 2012 till March 15 2012 : 341.87 billion or 4.56 billion/day ($14.70/day/citizen) ($1.668 trillion deficit)
Current debt as of March 15 2012 : 15.564 trillion
Current debt ceiling : 14.694 trillion (first phase) 15.194 trillion (second phase) 16.694 trillion (final phase)
At the current average rate of 4.61 billion in new debt/day (or about $14.87 in new debt per day for every citizen in America...and that is just federal) it will take about 245 days before reaching the final phase of the debt ceiling hike, so around November 15, 2012.
US GDP : 15.294 trillion Q4 2011
US debt : 15.564 trillion
Total debt to GDP ratio : 101.76%
And that of course is if the spending curve remains the same... which it probably won't since Israel will start a war against Iran before the election... and banks might need another bailout or they might pass another stimulus and they will stop the defense budget cuts.
...Simple things happening all over Europe in exactly the same way. It was the same loansharking Goldman Sachs, that was financing the European Investment Bank and “connived" with Simitis the fiscal data of Greece, so that ECB would be justified to buy Greek bonds using Goldman Sachs money, so that Bobolas could undertake the overcost public works ...Bobolas, who was a Goldman Sachs’ partner ...it's a self-serving behavior ...and who pays for it? Fools of course! After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the loan sharks’ “trashes” have “flooded” Europe.
This was the whole trick! Simple, quick and with minimum risk. They corrupted the political leaders of the European Union and they “flattened” everything. All these beasts –Pronti or Barroso- under the auspices of the loan sharks took important posts in the European mechanisms. Using the cheap borrowed dollars of Germany, they “printed” the cheap ECB Euro in Frankfurt. Using these cheap Euro they grasped the expensive Euro of the countries and turned it into debts. They eliminated the Euro securities and all that was left in the market was the Euro bonds. Euro value was stored in the ECB vaults and the countries were left with debts. That was the “game”!
American loan sharks represented now the international “Market”. But they needed the “umbilical cord” that connected them with the USA to arrange their “prints” as far as the accounting was concerned. ECB lent huge amounts of money to the European countries, because theoretically it has borrowed these corresponding amounts from the USA. It lent the “photocopies” borrowed by the FED at the price of real money. The American “pump” has started “blowing up” Europe using Frankfurt as its “valve”. Do you understand the reason why the European Union, even though it had a common currency, it did not function as a real "super-country” but as an “association” of independent national states?
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html
People should start getting ready for great trials ...for International Courts, where the current loan sharks shall give account. Monetarism criminals should sit on the same benches that once sat Nazi criminals. Rothschild, Rockefeller, Greenspan, Bernanke, Trichet, Soros, Buffett –and other “kids” of the loan sharking- should not sleep calmly from this point on. So, should also do their Quisling-type partners ...all the traitors who undertook power supported by the Monetarists and exercised leadership at the expense of their people ...Merkel, Sarkozy, Barroso, Zapatero, Papandreou and others.
The world is getting “awake” from “narcosis” and pity to the one who shall be found to have made the wrong at the wrong time ...pity to the who “sedated” them to “rape” them ...pity to the one who shall be found holding the criminal “tube” ...pity to the one who threatened the future of the human kind.
Tyler no problem!.. They will "Grow" their way out of it.. ie print.. print, which is why China is dumping dollars like a bad habit.
Hyper-inflating the debt away - How does that work?
I mean from what I understand, everytime the Fed prints money and loans to the US Govt, the US debt increases. So the more you print the more the debt increases. Debt does not go away?!
At what point does the National Debt become too big to service?
IE: at what point will the interest payments serpass the point where collecting taxes to pay off any portion of it becomes insane and tax payers fight back and stop paying?
I think within a few years they might have to actually raise the min wage to like 100$ just to pay the debt off (to collect enough wookie dollars from taxes to keep the story going).
Don't forget to add in the $8 trillion in Fannie, Freddie, FHLB debt too! It is defacto Federal government debt! Albeit low yielding.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/03/17/even-blue-fin-tuna-has-a-higher-return-than-agency-mortgage-backed-securities/
That's like if you owe 15k to the bank and you earned 8 bucks less so far this year. No big deal. You are pulling in 120k a year aren't you?
an interesting exercise i just performed out of sheer curiosity: i went to --
http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp
-- and pulled down the data from 2011 through 2012, and then grabbed only the SA and NSA initial claims for roughly the last six months [10/1 - 2/18, inclusive; i know, its only a little less than five months; thats all thats offered for the period i was looking at] and dropped into a spreadsheet. totalled the columns and added one that subratcted SAs from NSAs; that is, positive numbers result from NSA being higher each week and negative numbers from the SA being a higher number for weekly initial claims. a couple of the results were ... interesting. for that period, seasonally adjusted, 8,066,000 people filed initial unemployment insurance claims. non-seasonally adjusted the number rises [big surprise, that] to 8,968,361.
the 'difference' between the two is 902,261. in other words, nearly one million more people filed for claims but were seasonally adjusted out of existence [or at least, out of awareness] for that period of time for a discrepancy of over eleven percent for the period.
so ... i decided to try again. this time october 2010 to mid february 2011 [10-2-10 thru 2-19-11] and the numbers didn't change much at all. 8,996,000 SAs, 9,997,546 NSAs for a difference of 1,001,546 and pretty consistent at 11%. in fact the percentage difference was almost identical but there were 'only' about 100k [99185] more filings for the period last year than this year. for the period there were 90% so many initial claims as there were last year, or less than 5000 more [average] per week last year than this over the course of those 21 weeks.
don't ask me what it all proves. happy saturday