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Obama Revises CBO Deficit Forecast, Predicts 110% Debt-To-GDP By End Of 2013, Worse Deficit In 2012 Than 2011
While we have excoriated the unemployable, C-grade, goalseeking, manipulative excel hacks at the CBO on more than one occasion by now (see here, here and here), it appears this time it is the administration itself which has shown that when it comes to predicting the future, only "pledging" Greece is potentially worse than the CBO. WSJ reports that "President Barack Obama's budget request to Congress on Monday will forecast a deficit of $1.33 trillion in fiscal year 2012 and will include hundreds of billions of dollars of proposed infrastructure spending, according to draft documents viewed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The projected deficit is higher than the $1.296 trillion deficit in 2011 and also slightly higher than a roughly $1.15 trillion projection released by the Congressional Budget Office last week. The budget, according to the documents, will forecast a $901 billion deficit for fiscal 2013, which would be equivalent to 5.5% of gross domestic product. That is up from the administration's September forecast of a deficit of $833 billion, or 5.1% of GDP." Where does the CBO see the 2013 budget (deficit of course): -$585 billion, or a 35% delta from the impartial CBO! In other words between 2012 and 2013 the difference between the CBO and Obama's own numbers will be a total of $542 billion. That's $542 billion more debt than the CBO, Treasury and TBAC predict will be needed. In other words while we already know that the total debt by the end of 2012 will be about $16.4 trillion (and likely more, we just use the next debt target, pardon debt ceiling as a referenece point), this means that by the end of 2013, total US debt will be at least $17.4 trillion. Assuming that US 2011 GDP of $15.1 trillion grows by the consensus forecast 2% in 2012 and 3% in 2013, it means that by the end of next year GDP will be $15.8 trillion, or a debt-to-GDP ratio of 110%. Half way from where we are now, to where Italy was yesterday. And of course, both the real final deficit and Debt to GDP will be far, far worse, but that's irrelevant.
More from WSJ:
"The Administration forecast is used to develop the Budget, and at that time we predicted the unemployment rate would average 8.9% in 2012 and 8.6% in 2013. These forecasts were close to the consensus of private forecasters at the time," White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Alan Krueger said in a statement earlier in the week.
The budget includes more than $350 billion in short-term measures for job growth; a six-year, $476 billion proposal for roads and other surface-transportation projects; and more than $360 billion in savings in health programs such as Medicare and Medicaid.
The draft documents don't include all the details of the president's budget but show similarities to the budget plan the White House laid out in September 2011. The budget proposal, for example, repeats a call for $1.5 trillion in new revenue, mostly from ending Bush-era tax cuts for families earning more than $250,000 a year.
The White House has said the budget will reflect the president's overall economic message of trying to ensure the economy maintains momentum while everyone is paying their "fair share" of deficit reduction. "The President's 2013 Budget is built around the idea that our country does best when everyone gets a fair shot, does their fair share, and plays by the same rules," one of the budget documents said.
The budget also calls for a 5% increase in nondefense research-and-development spending over the previous year and proposes $2.2 billion for advanced manufacturing research and development—a 19% increase over 2012.
Last but not least, it also means that the Treasury debt ceiling will now with almost absolutely certainty, be breached before the election, meaning as Obama is electioneering, the Treasury will be plunder government pension funds to stay under the ceiling for as long as possible.
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Obama should have had some balls and actually lied to the underside of the CBO. We all know the deficit will hit $20 trillion by 2014 or maybe more. Now Obama can't even make the claim he is trying to reduce spending.
Tyler,
The search facility does not seem to be working at the moment or is it just for me; can someone confirm/deny please;
tia
http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/files/Trillion2.png
p.s. That chart only plots the money supply until mid 2005. 2006 to 2011 is very interesting. I can't wait until the 2012 through 2020 chart is here.
Yeah, by then, we'll have so much money, why we'll all be broke!
Paul Krugman is pissed that I posted that chart.
He tweeted:
I own you End The Fed...indeed.
"The only solution to the debt problem, is more debt"
Dr. Paul Krugman, Ph.D., Nobel Laureate in Economics and All-Around Douchebag
Hope and Change has $1.2 trillion to blow in QII and QIII of this year for his reelection that would be a deficit of $16.4 trillion before the end of the year.
Well. According to the Christian Science Monitor, The Economy Is Improving Whether Conservatives Like It Or Not. Uh, yeah. Whether one is a 'conservative' or otherwise, the only thing improving, or increasing, is the level of nonsense and bovine excrement being fed to the sheep that 'all is well'.
That's not The Christian Science Monitor per se, but Jared Bernstein, economic advisor to the Vice President.
The Christian Science Monitor is actually a great news source (they DO NOT intersperse Christianity or any other religious viewpoint in their journalism) and probably among the handful of credible journalistic sources left in the world, IMO. They're not corporate owned whores.
They allow Op/Ed pieces to run just like most papers do.
Jared Bernstein is a political hack who is lying during an election year.
Betty I am a mother fucking economist in case you missed my bio.
Not just any economist. A MFing economist? And just lookie at what the so-called economists have wrought. Debt now equals money or liquidity. I equate 'economists', of the keynesian ilk, to tarot card readers. Please take your pissing contest elsewhere. I care not for your resume.
Now, for your reading enjoyment, The Eleventh Marble:
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/11thmarble.php
Yes, Truth, I understand all of that. Although, it does not reflect well upon the publication that 'allows' the lying to continue. Op/Ed or not.
Why not more debt, you all know you will never pay it out, default is the only option left, live it up boys n gals, a new golden era is over the horizon....or not
So they raid the Government pensions and the whole thing doesn't hit the media until after the election, beautiful planner Barry, stunning.
Obama's economics work llike those "deals" where you safe $100 by spending $200. How he can say with a straight face that he is tackling the debt is easy - no one in the MSM will challenge him. The CBO can only work with the numbers and rules it is presented. For Obamacare it noted that the :savings" come from paying in four years before expenses start.
And then comes the day when they raid the private pensions using the same excuses they now use to raid the government pensions, followed by the day when they say we must combine all pensions and dole out the money something like Social Security. And the pile of money from the combined pensions will be squandered just like the SS "Trust Fund" has been squandered by the whores in Washington, both Republicans and Democrats. Yep, whores take your money and then screw you.
The news of the raiding government pensions will be in the news prior to the elections, but the extent of how much they use may not be reported until after the elections.
new meaning of "extend" and "pretend"
Seems okay to me.
And this is the best case scenario, with GDP actually growing, which at this point I deem unlikely. I think we'll see contraction this year and next year. But maybe that's just me and sunny disposition.
It depends. By next year we may be in a hot WWIII. No war? I suspect GDP will be dropping too.
As long as GDP includes government expenditures, I bet the Bernankecopter will keep it from shrinking.
+ another 1, Dawg
And the difference between the fiscal situation Greece is in and what the US will be in (apart from being able to print) is.............?
Your are afraid of the truth!! Admit it, no one will create a meaningful number of jobs in the highest wage most regulated, litigious nations in the world (USA/EU) when there is a world wide labor glut pushing wages to $25/day wo benefits e.g. Foxconn. The ever increasing deficits result from no one admiting the truth that housing and jobs will not recover. The deficits buy short terrm domestic peace with entitlements. If just like a subprime borrower refinancing every 6 months at ever higher prices to have the money to make the payments on the mortgage.
So, what you're saying then, is that we need to bomb the 3rd World back to the Stone Age, in order to give the 1st World a little breathing room.
BTW, whatever happened to the 2nd World? Did we eat them, or something?
2nd world is the communist bloc: russia, china, cuba, north korea.
Oh, the unmentionables. No wonder I didn't know.
Just let the Trillions tsunami do it's good work ...,
then we are all together closer to the same level of subsistence economy
and ready for sustainable growth again.
unskilled labor is worth $25 per day, no benefits.
When we get around to understanding this, GM cars will be the best in the world once again and will cost $10,000.
Yeah right!!!!
I absolutely guarantee you that Obama will run on a platform of reducing spending. He'll blame the deficit on the supercommittee, look the American people straight in the eye, and swear on all that's holy that he is the candidate for fiscal responsibility.
Something tells me by November, an election will be completely irrelevant.
Hey I know, lets get into another war, like with Iran, then we can get more in debt and crush are own country. YEAH YEAH
And 2012 has only just begun! Imagine what it will look like when the real numbers on unemployment and income take their toll on 2012 tax revenues. I'm thinking $1.6T might be achievable.
SO gold should be about $3000 by then?
It wont be measured in Dollars, it will however be a boat load of some kind of paper..
And it may be illegal to own too.
Bidless! Sayeth the man with the gun.
Offerless! Sayeth the man with the gold!
Odorless! Sayeth the man with Arm and Hammer
PPPffffttt.... very soon the Dollar will be so devalued that toilet paper will be a commodity.
20 trillion here we come!
Why plunder when you can print? A check is good until it's declined. Borrowed time on a ZIRP.
It was great while it lasted.
2 years?!?! Haha... I give it 1 year tops.
'Half way from where we are now, to where Italy was yesterday.'
Relax, ZIRP will be here to keep you calm. Not sure about the Chinese, can't trust them slanty eyes. What? they're shifty zall I'm sayin'.
WINNING!!!!
YES WE CAN
HE JUST DID IT!!
WELCOME TO THE RECOVERY
Debt increases what $1 trillion give or take every 4 months? Then throw in some bailouts and nationaliztions... Probably will hit 20 Trillion by 2014.
Is that including or excluding the $5 tril Freddie/Fannie debt?
The CNBC ass hounds are still blaming Greece. The So called Lawyer on CNBS know's how to read a chart! Farsical!
Someone still watches CNBC? Well, thanks, such sacrifice but I guess someone has to do it.
Alternatives? I agree with you! Bloomberg TV?
I may catch some flack for this but I like... wait for it.... Fox Business Channel.
RT is good too, can't trust American media anymore - all spin all the time. But at least Fox slaps Bammy and Benny around on a daily basis.
Well, I'll be damned. I didn't know RT was carried by Dish.
Just wait until my family gets an earful from Max Keiser!
It's dished on the retail terminals. N/A
Anyone with an appetite for NaCl has my attention. Table Salt
FOX Business News is the best.
I about peed myself I laughed so hard.
of course, it's cramer's birthday today...
I'm sure that Moody's downgrade is coming any minute now.
Yeah Moody will downgrade America from AAAA to AAA!
I would rate it ZZZZ
but then again I am just a clueless economist who thinks he is God.
P. Krugman the Great
yep,... and upgrade MBS's
End Game approaching.
The only limit on the deficit will be the top speed of the Printing Presses.
I heard Bernanke calls his press the Millenium Falcon.
Trying to catch up to Japan.
So does this mean they are actually going to pass a real budget?
Passing a real budget means someone would actually be accountable for something. So... No...
Wouldn't a real Budget be balanced at least?
Would a REAL balanced budget be real? In the most Clinton-esque way, it depends on what your defintion of real is... and in Washinton... ah.........
In for a penny in for a pound.........
Earnings are questionable at BEST! Look at the reports! It's roughly 50/50 on shitball guidance!
So I guess the "SuperCommittee" will be busy with their getting re-elected campaigns...
Spend like there's no tomorrow.
Because there isn't.
Begging your Eat Cake position, ZHr. When the East, Russia and 3rd world move away from $$$ as world reserve currency all those dollars will come running home. Then we will have more money than we know what to do with-to end with a preposition. Run out and buy next months food, but don't pay off your debt which will become worthless. Hunker down with real valuables that people will need, not digits on a computer screen or fiat. Best to get ready for this one now, don't try to time it, because Cuz, you won't see it coming. Not panickey....just saying.
+ 1 Great post!
But, it doesn't seem like you are much of a Whiner...
It's ok we can just employ the Euro strategy. Create a Super-Fed so that they can lend to us from imaginary money from nowhere.
Problem solved!
$50 says he blows through that $1.33 trillion by July and has to ask for another debt ceiling increase.
Intrade
He failed to mention the billions in infrastructure spending will all go to FEMA camp infrastuctural support. More train tracks, landing strips and bridges to internment facilities.
PRICED IN!
If Obama would lie better he wouldn't have to spend so much on buying votes. I vote for Ron Paul. He doesn't have to lie to buy votes.
Poor Barry, sucking at managing his decline! Boo fracking hoo!!!
the power of exponential growth:
http://usdebtclock.org/current-rates.html based on current rates, u.s. debtclock.org has the u.s. debt at over 24.1 TRILLION BY 2016 and a debt/gdp ratio of 138.94 percent.................................
Holy Guano Bat Man!
We aren't going to make it that far we will have to print a shitload more money to keep current rates.
Wow, that's quite a graphic. I wonder how they determine employment predictions?
Got Physical? And by this I mean anything of physical value. The .gov needs money, we all know what that means.
TP looks better than fiat right now, later fiat will be TP.
I'm going long Kinder goats.
This is NOT about Greece! Long Live Santelli!
Well, this should pretty much make Obama even more of a lock for re-election. And by the way, hasn't the U.S. been operating without a budget for years now?
U.S. Senate, under Democratic leadership, has not passed a budget since April 29, 2009
"Assuming that US 2011 GDP of $15.1 billion grows by the consensus forecast 2% in 2012 and 3% in 2013, it means that by the end of next year GDP will be $15.8 billion,"
Not trying to be too picky (I hope) but don't we need to add a few zeros here?
Or are things heading south much faster than we imagine? Is this priced in?
Freudian. It will changed shortly. Hopefully not to million.
Ah, fixed. Bernanke powers--pretty cool.
Bernanke powers? I'm stealing that. Thanks.
I hope the US defaults soon.
Then we can go back to the MSM telling us what to think about issues like Gay Abortion. Those were the good ol' days.
When China has 12 Aircraft Carriers, I'll get long (YUAN).
bank of china in nyc offering renminbi based bank accounts...better start stashing before govt bans the outflow of dollars....................
CFD's . I like em. Keep up the good work!
been doing it in merry old england for months - the brit's luv it - ~ 10-15% inflator savings
Good Job!
let's take a look at others who have done this, not for an "inflation hedge", but rather for "housing"
but, they didn't use the ren, did they?
so this time it is probably _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _! especially if others don't "pile in" causing "bankster-like sheeple-shearing 'market' behaviors"
i'm not as experienced w/ this as others here today, but what i've seen is that what starts as a "currency hedge" can morph into a "carry trade" in which entire nations are carrying, say, large segments of their 'housing' in some other nation's 'currency' b/c "it's a really good deal!"
then, the "tide turned" so we had nations where significant portions of their homeowners had mortgage payments double or triple on currency re-evaluations as the housing market went 'south'.
hedging isn't bad in itself, but it does seem to have an evil twin or something. probably just theEternalDebtZombie, again...
this is why it may be to your hedging interest to hedge in phyzz, anywhere on the planet, anytime in the forseeable future
but maybe your chinese currency will at least pound the pound
unlike many here, i am no longer privy to future prices and events or i'd be at the pari mutuel window!
10%! wow! that's almost too good to be true! but the oldLady has been printing up a shitstorm after the libyan vouchers hit. you gonna billet the fly-boys in italian hotels, you get great war stories and even greater expenses!
the french used a carrier, then went home
and, some of the fish that people are enjoying this weekend grew fat feasting on drowning refugees in clubMed!
10%! don't tell pimpco! they'd probably try to borrow a $ Trillion to get in on that action and "make money" for their "investors"!
seriously, tho, if these people prefer a yuan-denominated "account" in a chinese bank over gold sovereigns, i don't think the gold will be orphaned for long, and as a matter of fact, if the chineseBankster doesn't take your "deposit" and buy gold sovereigns for the "vault" i'll buy the fuking mashed peas, ok?
They got 500 Sunburn missiles, 41 per carrier target...does that count?
Katherine Austin Fitts mentioned last night on C2C that people are looking for some 4 trillion dollars that are missing. She did not really hint where the missing money may be but I feel she was indicating that it was diverted to the military. I do not use the term US military because I believe UN military may be a better term these days.
That money has been diverted to building a small city in New Zealand for our very own oligarchy so they may have a comfortable life, as things here fall apart.
By Anne Gibson
5:30 AM Thursday Feb 9, 2012That is just the Government deficit....that does not include the Feds Liquidity lines and whatever they can think of to fund the EU bailout and more....I bet you see many more Bank settlements that the states can use to make up their deficits....the Feds will loan the money to the banks to pay the settlements to the states....because the Federal Government can´t bail out individual states....but sue for a settlement...and bingo...we have a winner....I see a couple trillion of these..
110% debt to GDP? This is a good thing. All my life I heard that giving it 110% was the best you could do. USA, USA!
Our debt goes to 11
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ll7rWiY5obI
160% is even better. It's worked wonders for the Greeks.
US government will file for an IPO. Like dot.com stuff, losing money is pro growth. I predict that the share price will triple in three years.
Nah, that corporation will remain private. The owners like it that way.
pods
Debt being amassed at such a scale is unconscionable. It is a psychological plague upon all responsible, civic-minded citizens. Such a path, taken without any consensus of the people, erodes American democracy. Now I am able to actively work to safeguard my own position, yet for the children growing up in such a reckless environment, they have no refuge save in escapism.
The people HAVE given their concensus! They have been asleep and refusing to vote for anyone that could end this fraudulant nightmare! This could all end in Nov if people voted for Dr. Paul en masse! If he got elected by 98% of the people he would have a clear mandate and support from the population to end this fraud! But the people keep sleeping, and voting the banker powered muppets like santorum and romney into power over and over and over. Were fucked and we have no one to blame but ourselves.
With 48% of households receiving a monthly check from the government, the point-of-no-return has already been passed.
There is no turning back. It is pedal-to-the-metal into a looming brick wall.
link : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VRO2TJwkVM
Wrong.
"Absent the gold standard there is no safe store of value." Alan Greenspan
A budget - what a quaint notion. When was the last time one was passed? When was one adhered to?
If Obama gets re-elected you can start playing the music and rolling the credits.
When the true government is the banks, who gets elected to be our "president" does not matter.
If Obama DOESN'T get re-elected, you can ALSO start playing the music and rolling the credits. The President can't fix this.
Your metaphor is a great one, though.
The thing most folks forget about the movie is that you're sitting on the edge of your seat in the theater waiting for the exciting conclusion
...that was filmed a year before you even saw a poster.
A president with the courage to restore freedom and the rule of law can easily turn things around. Make no mistake it will not happen with the clown in office today.
A president with the courage to restore freedom and the rule of law can easily turn things around.
Um...no. That's just silly--the President is not an all-powerful dictator of the USA.
The President can't change the laws passed which put us here. Congress has to do this. And they haven't managed to do a single intelligent thing in the past 20 years, at least.
The reason our debt is skyrocketing is because there are thousands of pages of laws describing the process by which government issues checks to people and organizations. This is also why it's so incredibly hypocritical on the part of Congress members to *pretend* to care about the debt limit without also explaining where the money is going.
Social Security, Medicare, and the military. The President can *reduce* the expense of our military excursions, which is (at best) a third of the problem.
if we must judge by past performance and previous decisions made...
coming soon, headlines read:
"President Obama Signs Deal to Convert National Debt into Payday Loan."
Wouldn't it just be SHOCKING if +2% turned out to be -3%?
Perhaps more poignantly, does the Bernank let that happen, or do we get full-fledged QE4EVA before then?
Gotta love those BullShit Revisions!
Coming to a country near you.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13510_3-57374594-21/iran-cuts-off-internet-acc...
don't forget, BiCheZ: FY12 started last october!
if theFuktardFollies can back up the centralPlannersTM another year or two, we just might have a chance!
Tull - Living in the past
+1 for Ian Anderson!
So lets see if I got this right (I´m foregin, you know): Election year and the guy presents a budget with a deficit of about 10% of total national debt. 10% of US debt racked up in ONE YEAR?!?
The Republicans could chose a monkey with a piece of driftwood as a running mate and they would win. Oh, I forgot, that is just what they are doing. If this doesn´t give Ron Paul a ahead of Newt Romeny, Mitt Gingrich and the other stooges I don´t know what will.
So we replace the current monkey with another monkey?
every time slewie thinks of you, chef, his monkey goes driftwood
you got the finest ass on the site, and i hear you can cook, too!
as for ronPaul, you have convinced me!
let's roll, BiCheZ!
The Republicans could chose a monkey with a piece of driftwood as a running mate and they would win.
Yeah, but the Republicans don't have any candidates that are nearly that strong. Remember the last guy?
Silly Tyler... you must believe harder in Obamanomics!
Must be ONE OF US ONE OF US GOOBLE GOBLE GOOBLE GOBLE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bBXyB7niEc0
OMG. THEY LIED ?
Can someone tell Mandy that less than good is bad?!
For so long all the numbers and the people who stated them were called BS(Liars). When those people begin telling the truth no one will see it because we have all been trained they lie. When it crashes they will be able to say " see we told you". Crying Wolf? Maybe. Covering their ass. probably. I think we are close to that point.
And the amount of computer memory required to hold a number the size of the US debt.
Just 45 bits.
Digital money Bitchezz!
The asshound is referring to stocks based on guidance! It has nothing to do with top line( revenue)! It's real easy to show profits when analysts put projections in the TOILET!
F..k: you even skewed the ratings agencies! Cursing is not my mantra.
I just took the BIGGEST CnBs. RoUgHaGe!
Damn....pretty soon, we're gonna be talking about alot of money!
Good thing it's not real money - only Bernanke Bucks.
So $180 billion or 15% off is "slightly"?
Is that the new slightly?
"Central Bank of Kenya numbers show that the debt has significantly overshot the 45 per cent of GDP preferred by the World Bank to 57.4 per cent in August even as economic growth stutters."
HA HA HA! Take that USA! Maybe Obama's half-cousin from Kenya should make a stern phone call to him. Making family look bad!
I disagree with ZH on the "which would be equivalent to 5.5% of gross domestic product. That is up from the administration's September forecast of a deficit of $833 billion, or 5.1% of GDP."
Does anyone trust the GDP numbers? Likely it is allot less than they report.
"likely", altho generally a good word to circumscribe uncertainty, is a gross understatement here, cole
It's the same plan by the economic terrorists to create disorder and rot after having leveraged up and stripped our nation of anything worthwhile in productivity.