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Obama Revises CBO Deficit Forecast, Predicts 110% Debt-To-GDP By End Of 2013, Worse Deficit In 2012 Than 2011

Tyler Durden's picture


While we have excoriated the unemployable, C-grade, goalseeking, manipulative excel hacks at the CBO on more than one occasion by now (see here, here and here), it appears this time it is the administration itself which has shown that when it comes to predicting the future, only "pledging" Greece is potentially worse than the CBO. WSJ reports that "President Barack Obama's budget request to Congress on Monday will forecast a deficit of $1.33 trillion in fiscal year 2012 and will include hundreds of billions of dollars of proposed infrastructure spending, according to draft documents viewed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The projected deficit is higher than the $1.296 trillion deficit in 2011 and also slightly higher than a roughly $1.15 trillion projection released by the Congressional Budget Office last week. The budget, according to the documents, will forecast a $901 billion deficit for fiscal 2013, which would be equivalent to 5.5% of gross domestic product. That is up from the administration's September forecast of a deficit of $833 billion, or 5.1% of GDP." Where does the CBO see the 2013 budget (deficit of course): -$585 billion, or a 35% delta from the impartial CBO! In other words between 2012 and 2013 the difference between the CBO and Obama's own numbers will be a total of $542 billion. That's $542 billion more debt than the CBO, Treasury and TBAC predict will be needed. In other words while we already know that the total debt by the end of 2012 will be about $16.4 trillion (and likely more, we just use the next debt target, pardon debt ceiling as a referenece point), this means that by the end of 2013, total US debt will be at least $17.4 trillion. Assuming that US 2011 GDP of $15.1 trillion grows by the consensus forecast 2% in 2012 and 3% in 2013, it means that by the end of next year GDP will be $15.8 trillion, or a debt-to-GDP ratio of 110%. Half way from where we are now, to where Italy was yesterday. And of course, both the real final deficit and Debt to GDP will be far, far worse, but that's irrelevant.

More from WSJ:

"The Administration forecast is used to develop the Budget, and at that time we predicted the unemployment rate would average 8.9% in 2012 and 8.6% in 2013. These forecasts were close to the consensus of private forecasters at the time," White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Alan Krueger said in a statement earlier in the week.


The budget includes more than $350 billion in short-term measures for job growth; a six-year, $476 billion proposal for roads and other surface-transportation projects; and more than $360 billion in savings in health programs such as Medicare and Medicaid.


The draft documents don't include all the details of the president's budget but show similarities to the budget plan the White House laid out in September 2011. The budget proposal, for example, repeats a call for $1.5 trillion in new revenue, mostly from ending Bush-era tax cuts for families earning more than $250,000 a year.


The White House has said the budget will reflect the president's overall economic message of trying to ensure the economy maintains momentum while everyone is paying their "fair share" of deficit reduction. "The President's 2013 Budget is built around the idea that our country does best when everyone gets a fair shot, does their fair share, and plays by the same rules," one of the budget documents said.


The budget also calls for a 5% increase in nondefense research-and-development spending over the previous year and proposes $2.2 billion for advanced manufacturing research and development—a 19% increase over 2012.

Last but not least, it also means that the Treasury debt ceiling will now with almost absolutely certainty, be breached before the election, meaning as Obama is electioneering, the Treasury will be plunder government pension funds to stay under the ceiling for as long as possible.


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Fri, 02/10/2012 - 14:57 | 2146937 adr
adr's picture

Obama should have had some balls and actually lied to the underside of the CBO. We all know the deficit will hit $20 trillion by 2014 or maybe more. Now Obama can't even make the claim he is trying to reduce spending.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:05 | 2146980 French Frog
French Frog's picture


The search facility does not seem to be working at the moment or is it just for me; can someone confirm/deny please;


Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:28 | 2147073 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture


And the emperor declared, "Dilutus Maximus Fiat Ad Infinitum!"

But soon, the crowd slowly became aware that he hath no clothing.


p.s. That chart only plots the money supply until mid 2005. 2006 to 2011 is very interesting. I can't wait until the 2012 through 2020 chart is here.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:28 | 2147115 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Yeah, by then, we'll have so much money, why we'll all be broke!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:36 | 2147157 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Paul Krugman is pissed that I posted that chart.

He tweeted:




I hope you enjoy your belly full of gold as I stay toasty warm with my fiat burning stove crammed with Federal Reserve Notes.



Dr. Paul Krugman, Ph.D., Nobel Laureate in Economics

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:52 | 2147248 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

I own you End The Fed...indeed.

"The only solution to the debt problem, is more debt"

Dr. Paul Krugman, Ph.D., Nobel Laureate in Economics and All-Around Douchebag



Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:31 | 2147448 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Hope and Change has $1.2 trillion to blow in QII and QIII of this year for his reelection that would be a deficit of $16.4 trillion before the end of the year.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 18:27 | 2147835 Betty Swallsack
Betty Swallsack's picture

Well. According to the Christian Science Monitor, The Economy Is Improving Whether Conservatives Like It Or Not.  Uh, yeah.  Whether one is a 'conservative' or otherwise, the only thing improving, or increasing, is the level of nonsense and bovine excrement being fed to the sheep that 'all is well'.


Fri, 02/10/2012 - 20:25 | 2147993 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

That's not The Christian Science Monitor per se, but Jared Bernstein, economic advisor to the Vice President.

The Christian Science Monitor is actually a great news source (they DO NOT intersperse Christianity or any other religious viewpoint in their journalism) and probably among the handful of credible journalistic sources left in the world, IMO. They're not corporate owned whores.

They allow Op/Ed pieces to run just like most papers do.

Jared Bernstein is a political hack who is lying during an election year.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 23:21 | 2148571 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Betty I am a mother fucking economist in case you missed my bio.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 12:00 | 2149107 Betty Swallsack
Betty Swallsack's picture

Not just any economist. A MFing economist?  And just lookie at what the so-called economists have wrought.  Debt now equals money or liquidity.  I equate 'economists', of the keynesian ilk, to tarot card readers.  Please take your pissing contest elsewhere.  I care not for your resume.

Now, for your reading enjoyment, The Eleventh Marble:

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 11:49 | 2149102 Betty Swallsack
Betty Swallsack's picture

Yes, Truth, I understand all of that.  Although, it does not reflect well upon the publication that 'allows' the lying to continue.  Op/Ed or not. 

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 19:22 | 2148023 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Why not more debt, you all know you will never pay it out, default is the only option left, live it up boys n gals, a new golden era is over the horizon....or not

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:35 | 2147160 MiguelitoRaton
MiguelitoRaton's picture

So they raid the Government pensions and the whole thing doesn't hit the media until after the election, beautiful planner Barry, stunning.

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 00:01 | 2148660 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Obama's economics work llike those "deals" where you safe $100 by spending $200.  How he can say with a straight face that he is tackling the debt is easy - no one in the MSM will challenge him.    The CBO can only work with the numbers and rules it is presented.  For Obamacare it noted that the :savings" come from paying in four years before expenses start. 


Sat, 02/11/2012 - 09:03 | 2148955 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

And then comes the day when they raid the private pensions using the same excuses they now use to raid the government pensions, followed by the day when they say we must combine all pensions and dole out the money something like Social Security.  And the pile of money from the combined pensions will be squandered just like the SS "Trust Fund" has been squandered by the whores in Washington, both Republicans and Democrats.  Yep, whores take your money and then screw you.

The news of the raiding government pensions will be in the news prior to the elections, but the extent of how much they use may not be reported until after the elections.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:38 | 2147175 non_anon
non_anon's picture

new meaning of "extend" and "pretend"

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:15 | 2147366 mkhs
mkhs's picture

Seems okay to me.


Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:19 | 2147053 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

And this is the best case scenario, with GDP actually growing, which at this point I deem unlikely. I think we'll see contraction this year and next year. But maybe that's just me and sunny disposition.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:27 | 2147108 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

It depends.  By next year we may be in a hot WWIII.  No war? I suspect GDP will be dropping too.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:40 | 2147191 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

As long as GDP includes government expenditures, I bet the Bernankecopter will keep it from shrinking.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:33 | 2147453 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ another 1, Dawg

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:23 | 2147075 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

And the difference between the fiscal situation Greece is in and what the US will be in (apart from being able to print) is.............?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:23 | 2147082 tempo
tempo's picture

Your are afraid of the truth!!  Admit it, no one  will create a meaningful number of jobs in the highest wage most regulated, litigious nations in the world (USA/EU) when there is a world wide labor glut pushing wages to $25/day wo benefits e.g. Foxconn.  The ever increasing deficits result from no one admiting the truth that housing and jobs will not recover.  The deficits buy short terrm domestic peace with entitlements.  If just like a subprime borrower refinancing every 6 months at ever higher prices to have the money to make the payments on the mortgage.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:30 | 2147127 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

So, what you're saying then, is that we need to bomb the 3rd World back to the Stone Age, in order to give the 1st World a little breathing room.

BTW, whatever happened to the 2nd World? Did we eat them, or something?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:14 | 2147356 sid farkas
sid farkas's picture

2nd world is the communist bloc: russia, china, cuba, north korea.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:25 | 2147415 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Oh, the unmentionables. No wonder I didn't know.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:41 | 2147489 trilliontroll
trilliontroll's picture

Just let the Trillions tsunami do it's good work ...,

then we are all together closer to the same level of subsistence economy

and ready for sustainable growth again.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:35 | 2147152 LasVegasDave
LasVegasDave's picture

unskilled labor is worth $25 per day, no benefits.

When we get around to understanding this, GM cars will be the best in the world once again and will cost $10,000.

Yeah right!!!!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:34 | 2147150 Nascent_Variable
Nascent_Variable's picture

I absolutely guarantee you that Obama will run on a platform of reducing spending.  He'll blame the deficit on the supercommittee, look the American people straight in the eye, and swear on all that's holy that he is the candidate for fiscal responsibility.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:47 | 2147227 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Something tells me by November, an election will be completely irrelevant.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:52 | 2147246 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Hey I  know, lets get into another war, like with Iran, then we can get more in debt and crush are own country. YEAH YEAH

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 20:20 | 2148169 Archon7
Archon7's picture

And 2012 has only just begun!  Imagine what it will look like when the real numbers on unemployment and income take their toll on 2012 tax revenues.  I'm thinking $1.6T might be achievable.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 14:58 | 2146943 JailBank
JailBank's picture

SO gold should be about $3000 by then?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:13 | 2147028 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

It wont be measured in Dollars, it will however be a boat load of some kind of paper..

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:29 | 2147120 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

And it may be illegal to own too.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:31 | 2147134 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Bidless! Sayeth the man with the gun.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:36 | 2147463 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Offerless!  Sayeth the man with the gold!

Sat, 02/11/2012 - 16:17 | 2149633 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Odorless! Sayeth the man with Arm and Hammer

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 20:23 | 2148173 Archon7
Archon7's picture

PPPffffttt....  very soon the Dollar will be so devalued that toilet paper will be a commodity.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 14:58 | 2146944 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

20 trillion here we come!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 14:58 | 2146945 j.tennquist
j.tennquist's picture

Why plunder when you can print? A check is good until it's declined.  Borrowed time on a ZIRP.   

It was great while it lasted. 

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:00 | 2146952 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

2 years?!?! Haha... I give it 1 year tops.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:00 | 2146953 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Half way from where we are now, to where Italy was yesterday.'

Relax, ZIRP will be here to keep you calm. Not sure about the Chinese, can't trust them slanty eyes. What? they're shifty zall I'm sayin'.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:00 | 2146956 Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture


Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:23 | 2147084 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture


Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:28 | 2147114 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:00 | 2147286 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture


Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:02 | 2146963 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Debt increases what $1 trillion give or take every 4 months? Then throw in some bailouts and nationaliztions... Probably will hit 20 Trillion by 2014.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 17:15 | 2147628 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

Is that including or excluding the $5 tril Freddie/Fannie debt?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:03 | 2146968 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

The CNBC ass hounds are still blaming Greece. The So called Lawyer on CNBS know's how to read a chart! Farsical!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:07 | 2146990 j.tennquist
j.tennquist's picture

Someone still watches CNBC?   Well, thanks, such sacrifice but I guess someone has to do it.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:11 | 2147010 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Alternatives? I agree with you! Bloomberg TV?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:25 | 2147090 j.tennquist
j.tennquist's picture

I may catch some flack for this but I like... wait for it....  Fox Business Channel.  

RT is good too, can't trust American media anymore - all spin all the time.  But at least Fox slaps Bammy and Benny around on a daily basis.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:37 | 2147167 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, I'll be damned. I didn't know RT was carried by Dish.

Just wait until my family gets an earful from Max Keiser!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:40 | 2147190 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

It's dished on the retail terminals. N/A

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:42 | 2147176 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Anyone with an appetite for NaCl has my attention. Table Salt

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:01 | 2147292 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

FOX Business News is the best.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:15 | 2147358 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I about peed myself I laughed so hard.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:20 | 2147058 brewing
brewing's picture

of course, it's cramer's birthday today...

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:04 | 2146972 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm sure that Moody's downgrade is coming any minute now.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:38 | 2147178 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yeah Moody will downgrade America from AAAA to AAA!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:05 | 2147306 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

I would rate it ZZZZ

but then again I am just a clueless economist who thinks he is God.

P. Krugman the Great

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:07 | 2147319 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

yep,... and upgrade MBS's

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:06 | 2146985 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

End Game approaching.

The only limit on the deficit will be the  top speed of the Printing Presses.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:04 | 2147301 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I heard Bernanke calls his press the Millenium Falcon.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:07 | 2146988 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Trying to catch up to Japan.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:07 | 2146989 pods
pods's picture

So does this mean they are actually going to pass a real budget?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:10 | 2147006 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Passing a real budget means someone would actually be accountable for something. So... No...

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:12 | 2147018 Manchu9Inf
Manchu9Inf's picture

Wouldn't a real Budget be balanced at least?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:26 | 2147100 j.tennquist
j.tennquist's picture

Would a REAL balanced budget be real?   In the most Clinton-esque way, it depends on what your defintion of real is... and in Washinton... ah.........

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:08 | 2146993 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

In for a penny in for a pound.........

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:09 | 2146995 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Earnings are questionable at BEST! Look at the reports! It's roughly 50/50 on shitball guidance!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:09 | 2146996 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

So I guess the "SuperCommittee" will be busy with their getting re-elected campaigns...

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:09 | 2147000 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

Spend like there's no tomorrow.

Because there isn't.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:14 | 2147365 Whiner
Whiner's picture

Begging your Eat Cake position, ZHr. When the East, Russia and 3rd world move away from $$$ as world reserve currency all those dollars will come running home. Then we will have more money than we know what to do with-to end with a preposition. Run out and buy next months food, but don't pay off your debt which will become worthless. Hunker down with real valuables that people will need, not digits on a computer screen or fiat. Best to get ready for this one now, don't try to time it, because Cuz, you won't see it coming. Not panickey....just saying.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:41 | 2147490 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1 Great post!

But, it doesn't seem like you are much of a Whiner...

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:10 | 2147007 Conman
Conman's picture

It's ok we can just employ the Euro strategy. Create a Super-Fed so that they can lend to us from imaginary money from nowhere.

Problem solved!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:11 | 2147012 taniquetil
taniquetil's picture

$50 says he blows through that $1.33 trillion by July and has to ask for another debt ceiling increase.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:19 | 2147052 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture


Sat, 02/11/2012 - 00:24 | 2148708 DeltaDawn
DeltaDawn's picture

He failed to mention the billions in infrastructure spending will all go to FEMA camp infrastuctural support. More train tracks, landing strips and bridges to internment facilities.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:11 | 2147014 Roy T
Roy T's picture


Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:15 | 2147016 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If Obama would lie better he wouldn't have to spend so much on buying votes. I vote for Ron Paul. He doesn't have to lie to buy votes.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:12 | 2147019 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Poor Barry, sucking at managing his decline!  Boo fracking hoo!!!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:12 | 2147020 kito
kito's picture

the power of exponential growth:  based on current rates, u.s. has the u.s. debt at over 24.1 TRILLION BY 2016 and a debt/gdp ratio of 138.94 percent.................................

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:13 | 2147026 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Holy Guano Bat Man!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:15 | 2147029 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

We aren't going to make it that far we will have to print a shitload more money to keep current rates.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:57 | 2147272 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Wow, that's quite a graphic. I wonder how they determine employment predictions?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:12 | 2147021 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Got Physical?  And by this I mean anything of physical value.  The .gov needs money, we all know what that means.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:14 | 2147032 kralizec
kralizec's picture

TP looks better than fiat right now, later fiat will be TP.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:59 | 2147279 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I'm going long Kinder goats.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:12 | 2147025 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 This is NOT about Greece! Long Live Santelli!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:15 | 2147034 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Well, this should pretty much make Obama even more of a lock for re-election. And by the way, hasn't the U.S. been operating without a budget for years now?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 17:53 | 2147748 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

U.S. Senate, under Democratic leadership, has not passed a budget since April 29, 2009

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:16 | 2147041 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

"Assuming that US 2011 GDP of $15.1 billion grows by the consensus forecast 2% in 2012 and 3% in 2013, it means that by the end of next year GDP will be $15.8 billion,"

Not trying to be too picky (I hope) but don't we need to add a few zeros here?

Or are things heading south much faster than we imagine? Is this priced in?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:32 | 2147140 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Freudian. It will changed shortly. Hopefully not to million.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:36 | 2147159 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

Ah, fixed. Bernanke powers--pretty cool.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:55 | 2147259 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Bernanke powers? I'm stealing that. Thanks.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:16 | 2147042 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I hope the US defaults soon.

Then we can go back to the MSM telling us what to think about issues like Gay Abortion. Those were the good ol' days.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:21 | 2147063 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

When China has 12 Aircraft Carriers, I'll get long (YUAN).

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:30 | 2147123 kito
kito's picture

bank of china in nyc offering renminbi based bank accounts...better start stashing before govt bans the outflow of dollars....................

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:33 | 2147145 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

CFD's . I like em. Keep up the good work!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:12 | 2147344 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

been doing it in merry old england for months - the brit's luv it - ~ 10-15% inflator savings

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:20 | 2147390 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Good Job!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 19:44 | 2148075 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

let's take a look at others who have done this, not for an "inflation hedge", but rather for "housing"

  • iceland
  • ireland
  • latvia
  • portugal
  • spain
  • and others in central europe, as well

but, they didn't use the ren, did they?

so this time it is probably _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _!   especially if others don't "pile in" causing "bankster-like sheeple-shearing 'market' behaviors"

i'm not as experienced w/ this as others here today, but what i've seen is that what starts as a "currency hedge" can morph into a "carry trade" in which entire nations are carrying, say, large segments of their 'housing' in some other nation's 'currency' b/c "it's a really good deal!"

then, the "tide turned" so we had nations where significant portions of their homeowners had mortgage payments double or triple on currency re-evaluations as the housing market went 'south'.

hedging isn't bad in itself, but it does seem to have an evil twin or something.  probably just theEternalDebtZombie, again...

this is why it may be to your hedging interest to hedge in phyzz, anywhere on the planet, anytime in the forseeable future

but maybe your chinese currency will at least pound the pound

unlike many here, i am no longer privy to future prices and events or i'd be at the pari mutuel window!  

10%!  wow!  that's almost too good to be true!  but the oldLady has been printing up a shitstorm after the libyan vouchers hit.  you gonna billet the fly-boys in italian hotels, you get great war stories and even greater expenses!

the french used a carrier, then went home 

and, some of the fish that people are enjoying this weekend grew fat feasting on drowning refugees in clubMed! 

10%!  don't tell pimpco!  they'd probably try to borrow a $ Trillion to get in on that action and "make money" for their "investors"!

seriously, tho, if these people prefer a yuan-denominated "account" in a chinese bank over gold sovereigns, i don't think the gold will be orphaned for long, and as a matter of fact, if the chineseBankster doesn't take your "deposit" and buy gold sovereigns for the "vault" i'll buy the fuking mashed peas, ok?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 17:14 | 2147620 tim73
tim73's picture

They got 500 Sunburn missiles, 41 per carrier target...does that count?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:21 | 2147056 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Katherine Austin Fitts mentioned last night on C2C that people are looking for some 4 trillion dollars that are missing. She did not really hint where the missing money may be but I feel she was indicating that it was diverted to the military. I do not use the term US military because I believe UN military may be a better term these days.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:12 | 2147342 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture


That money has been diverted to building a small city in New Zealand for our very own oligarchy so they may have a comfortable life, as things here fall apart.

By Anne Gibson

5:30 AM Thursday Feb 9, 2012
Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:20 | 2147061 youngman
youngman's picture

That is just the Government deficit....that does not include the Feds Liquidity lines and whatever they can think of to fund the EU bailout and more....I bet you see many more Bank settlements that the states can use to make up their deficits....the Feds will loan the money to the banks to pay the settlements to the states....because the Federal Government can´t bail out individual states....but sue for a settlement...and bingo...we have a winner....I see a couple trillion of these..

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:23 | 2147068 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

110% debt to GDP?   This is a good thing.  All my life I heard that giving it 110% was the best you could do.  USA, USA!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:56 | 2147253 Burr's 2nd Shot
Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:57 | 2147552 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

160% is even better. It's worked wonders for the Greeks.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:23 | 2147085 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

US government will file for an IPO. Like stuff, losing money is pro growth. I predict that the share price will triple in three years.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:02 | 2147295 pods
pods's picture

Nah, that corporation will remain private.  The owners like it that way.


Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:24 | 2147086 dalkrin
dalkrin's picture

Debt being amassed at such a scale is unconscionable.  It is a psychological plague upon all responsible, civic-minded citizens.  Such a path, taken without any consensus of the people, erodes American democracy.  Now I am able to actively work to safeguard my own position, yet for the children growing up in such a reckless environment, they have no refuge save in escapism.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:39 | 2147185 X86BSD
X86BSD's picture

The people HAVE given their concensus! They have been asleep and refusing to vote for anyone that could end this fraudulant nightmare! This could all end in Nov if people voted for Dr. Paul en masse! If he got elected by 98% of the people he would have a clear mandate and support from the population to end this fraud! But the people keep sleeping, and voting the banker powered muppets like santorum and romney into power over and over and over. Were fucked and we have no one to blame but ourselves. 

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:11 | 2147332 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

With 48% of households receiving a monthly check from the government, the point-of-no-return has already been passed.

There is no turning back. It is pedal-to-the-metal into a looming brick wall.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:52 | 2147540 trilliontroll
trilliontroll's picture

link :

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:46 | 2147513 riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture


"Absent the gold standard there is no safe store of value." Alan Greenspan

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:25 | 2147088 novanglus
novanglus's picture

A budget - what a quaint notion.  When was the last time one was passed?  When was one adhered to?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:27 | 2147104 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

If Obama gets re-elected you can start playing the music and rolling the credits.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:32 | 2147139 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

When the true government is the banks, who gets elected to be our "president" does not matter.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:52 | 2147244 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

If Obama DOESN'T get re-elected, you can ALSO start playing the music and rolling the credits.  The President can't fix this.

Your metaphor is a great one, though. 

The thing most folks forget about the movie is that you're sitting on the edge of your seat in the theater waiting for the exciting conclusion

...that was filmed a year before you even saw a poster.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 17:46 | 2147730 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

A president with the courage to restore freedom and the rule of law can easily turn things around. Make no mistake it will not happen with the clown in office today.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 18:22 | 2147836 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

A president with the courage to restore freedom and the rule of law can easily turn things around.  That's just silly--the President is not an all-powerful dictator of the USA.

The President can't change the laws passed which put us here.  Congress has to do this.  And they haven't managed to do a single intelligent thing in the past 20 years, at least.

The reason our debt is skyrocketing is because there are thousands of pages of laws describing the process by which government issues checks to people and organizations.  This is also why it's so incredibly hypocritical on the part of Congress members to *pretend* to care about the debt limit without also explaining where the money is going.

Social Security, Medicare, and the military.  The President can *reduce* the expense of our military excursions, which is (at best) a third of the problem. 

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:27 | 2147107 jefrica
jefrica's picture

if we must judge by past performance and previous decisions made...

coming soon, headlines read:

"President Obama Signs Deal to Convert National Debt into Payday Loan."

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:29 | 2147118 thursday0451
thursday0451's picture

Wouldn't it just be SHOCKING if +2% turned out to be -3%?

Perhaps more poignantly, does the Bernank let that happen, or do we get full-fledged QE4EVA before then?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:31 | 2147129 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Gotta love those BullShit Revisions!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:32 | 2147141 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

don't forget, BiCheZ: FY12 started last october!

if theFuktardFollies can back up the centralPlannersTM another year or two, we just might have a chance!

Tull - Living in the past 

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 21:07 | 2148304 CalBear
CalBear's picture

+1 for Ian Anderson! 

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:32 | 2147144 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

So lets see if I got this right (I´m foregin, you know): Election year and the guy presents a budget with a deficit of about 10% of total national debt. 10% of US debt racked up in ONE YEAR?!? 


The Republicans could chose a monkey with a piece of driftwood as a running mate and they would win. Oh, I forgot, that is just what they are doing. If this doesn´t give Ron Paul a ahead of Newt Romeny, Mitt Gingrich and the other stooges I don´t know what will.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 17:01 | 2147571 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

So we replace the current monkey with another monkey?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 18:14 | 2147813 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

every time slewie thinks of you, chef, his monkey goes driftwood

you got the finest ass on the site, and i hear you can cook, too!

as for ronPaul, you have convinced me! 

let's roll, BiCheZ!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 20:20 | 2148168 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The Republicans could chose a monkey with a piece of driftwood as a running mate and they would win.

Yeah, but the Republicans don't have any candidates that are nearly that strong.  Remember the last guy?

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:35 | 2147153 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Silly Tyler... you must believe harder in Obamanomics!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:45 | 2147215 thursday0451
thursday0451's picture


Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:39 | 2147184 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture


Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:45 | 2147222 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Can someone tell Mandy that less than good is bad?!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:48 | 2147229 surf0766
surf0766's picture

For so long all the numbers and the people who stated them were called BS(Liars). When those people begin telling the truth no one will see it because we have all been trained they lie. When it crashes they will be able to say " see we told you". Crying Wolf? Maybe. Covering their ass. probably. I think we are close to that point.


Fri, 02/10/2012 - 15:48 | 2147234 morning_glory
morning_glory's picture

And the amount of computer memory required to hold a number the size of the US debt.


Just 45 bits.


Digital money Bitchezz!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:08 | 2147268 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 The asshound is referring to stocks based on guidance! It has nothing to do with  top line( revenue)! It's real easy to show profits when analysts put projections in the TOILET!


  F..k: you even skewed the ratings agencies! Cursing is not my mantra.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:01 | 2147291 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I just took the BIGGEST CnBs. RoUgHaGe!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:09 | 2147328 Dealer
Dealer's picture

Damn....pretty soon, we're gonna be talking about alot of money!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:13 | 2147347 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Good thing it's not real money - only Bernanke Bucks.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 16:22 | 2147405 malek
malek's picture

[...] will forecast a deficit of $1.33 trillion in fiscal year 2012 [...] The projected deficit is  [...] also slightly higher than a roughly $1.15 trillion projection released by the Congressional Budget Office last week.

So $180 billion or 15% off is "slightly"?

Is that the new slightly?


Fri, 02/10/2012 - 17:08 | 2147588 tim73
tim73's picture

"Central Bank of Kenya numbers show that the debt has significantly overshot the 45 per cent of GDP preferred by the World Bank to 57.4 per cent in August even as economic growth stutters."

HA HA HA! Take that USA! Maybe Obama's half-cousin from Kenya should make a stern phone call to him. Making family look bad!

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 17:09 | 2147600 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

I disagree with ZH on the  "which would be equivalent to 5.5% of gross domestic product. That is up from the administration's September forecast of a deficit of $833 billion, or 5.1% of GDP."

Does anyone trust the GDP numbers? Likely it is allot less than they report.

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 18:20 | 2147828 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

"likely", altho generally a good word to circumscribe uncertainty, is a gross understatement here, cole

Fri, 02/10/2012 - 17:24 | 2147656 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

It's the same plan by the economic terrorists to create disorder and rot after having leveraged up and stripped our nation of anything worthwhile in productivity.

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