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October Chicago PMI Misses Consensus Prints At 58.4, Down From 60.4

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Time to drag the recession talk back? After three months of the Chicago PMI (a key advance indicator for the ISM), bucking the trend of the other high frequency economic indicators and beating expectations consistently, it is the PMI itself that finally missed consensus, printing at 58.4 on expectations of 59.0, and down from a 60.4 in September. The strength in the report was in Employment, which was the highest in 6 months, while New Orders "erased half of Spetember's gains." Inventories dropped from 60.3 to 54.4, Production was down from 63.9 to 63.4, while inflation returns as Prices Paid rose from 62.3 to 66.0. Look for some cautious wording ahead of the Manfuacturing ISM now that everyone has hiked their Q4 GDP forecasts once again to accompany the S&P ramp, because the stock market is somehow representative of the economy.

And the always education respondents' commentary:

 

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Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:03 | 1828224 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Is this what just spooked the gold/silver paper contract holders ?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:08 | 1828232 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

I'd assume it was the EUR collapsing which means some dollar strengthening 

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:10 | 1828247 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

The dollar is up today. The Yen is debaseing. Don't worry. The dollar will soon follow. This is a long horse race of fiat to the bottom. Slow and steady. Untill war.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:06 | 1828229 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Nice set-up for the Fed.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:08 | 1828231 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

EUR/USD moves up around 20pips, whereas Bund futures fell around 10ticks following news of active support from China to debt-stricken Eurozone countries


Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:08 | 1828233 HD
HD's picture

Tyler, this was posted on another forum - is this true?

The FRBNY POMO infusion today of $8.87 Billion totaling about $91 Billion so far this month vs. Sept 2011 had less than $11 Billion.

The equities market is being pumped up indirectly by the FED. This is a Stealth QE3 that is in progress this month.

10/03/11 Mon $2.5B
10/04/11 Tues $4.59B
10/05/11 Wed $1.37B
10/06/11 Thur $8.87B
10/07/11 Fri $1.72B
10/10/11 Mon
10/11/11 Tues $2.5B
10/12/11 Wed $8.87B
10/13/11 Thur $4.882B
10/14/11 Fri $4.6B
10/17/11 Mon $1.37B
10/18/11 Tues $2.5B
10/19/11 Wed $4.88B
10/20/11 Thur $8.87B
10/21/11 Fri $4.6B
10/24/11 Mon $2.5
10/25/11 Tues $4.6B
10/26/11 Wed $8.87B
10/27/11 Thur $2.5B
10/28/11 Fri $8.87B
Total Est. = $91 Billion

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:13 | 1828253 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Not true.  Some of those are sales.  Here's the POMO schedule straight from the FED,

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:15 | 1828257 HD
HD's picture

Thanks mate.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:09 | 1828240 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Guess they are buying LULU CMG AAPL  etc....risk still on...

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:17 | 1828261 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I hate it when Robo's right

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:09 | 1828241 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

See the reversal in lqd?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:10 | 1828243 Mister Ponzi
Mister Ponzi's picture

Again, as the Chicago PMI is calculated using a different seasonal adjustment procedure (X11) than the other economic time series, comparability between this and other PMI indices is very limited.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 15:13 | 1828245 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

What, we're in a recession?

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:10 | 1828246 moskov
moskov's picture

what's the CDS for America? I want hedge against it

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:11 | 1828250 Racer
Racer's picture

I thought, hmm, that's a funny time of day to put out that report then remembered... time difference different

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:18 | 1828264 rosex229
rosex229's picture

employment was a strength and inventories were drawn down significantly. oddly enough this report demonstrates strength moving forward. it had a small miss, but strong forward looking numbers. not that this report will have any sway on markets, growth, etc since the big issues remain italys 10 yr yields, frances aaa credit rating, and the upcoming recognition that the u.s. still has huge fiscal problems combined with political deadlock.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:24 | 1828290 Raskolnikoff
Raskolnikoff's picture

political deadlock is actually bullish. someone has to have the nerve to shoot those who want to help.

there is a tale about a Chinese farmer who wants to speed up the rice harvest, everyday he'll go out into the field and pull on the sprounting plants to speed up the growth.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:21 | 1828278 irishlink
irishlink's picture

Are we able to calculate the risk that the fall of MF Global is going to unleash? If the Germans can find an 'Error' that produces a €55billion windfall and MF can make dreadful position size plays on the European crisis then it is almost very likely that other PM's made equally bad decisions. I f the house of cards that is Europe comes crashing down  ,we will have a lovely scenario develop across the pond.

Mon, 10/31/2011 - 10:28 | 1828318 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Between Europe's Bernie Madoff debt crisis solution and the Chicago PMI report, it should make for an interesting FOMC discussion on Wednesday.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

Plus DeMarco announcing that he will not approve of principal forgiveness on Fannie/Freddie insured loans is likely to put Bernanke/Geithner/Obama's panties in a major twist!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

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