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Odd One Out Getting Odder
Just in case you were wondering if there was any fall-out from the JPM/Iksil debacle. The investment grade credit indices are getting Corzined here from IG9 10Y to the latest and greatest IG18 5Y. Equity markets will not stand idly by as the investment grade credit market violently jerks wider.
IG is having its worst week of the year so far...
and IG9 10Y is back near its opening wides - around 9bps wider on the day - a huge move in relative terms...
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It is getting absolutely grim out there...
Not grim enough yet.
"Not grim enough yet."
Chart Translation: JPMorgan's London whale has not paid enoug htribute to its counterparties yet. The harpooning continues.
...as we rise for the Seventh Inning Stretch, it's Ahab 2+ billion and Moby Dick 0....now a word from our sponsors.
CS, like the reference. So, in your version Captain Ahab gets his revenge... and I am also assuming in this version, the whale isn't simple just a whale (a dumb beast/ animal); the whale(s) are actually mother fucking crooks... and, although sold their souls a long time ago, they still inhabit their human forms... ! before either being lynched, reborn as fly, or burning in hell ...
Dow Jones Crash - A Technical Prediction
http://stocklegends.com/dow-jones-crash-technical-prediction
I have to chuckle whenever I hear the line theyll just coast it all right thru summer on fumes. They plan to glide the 747 on 1 wing cross country, to a destination with no landing strip? Whats so special about the next 6 months anyway? Elections are just rigged frauds, they can already just produce whatever result they desire, so 6 months of keeping the markets afloat at all costs is just another part of the scam as big as the rumors of impending QE at any moment.
they've been flying this plane on fumes since 2008 ... the one thing i've learned in all of this is that things never seem to happen as fast as most people think they will ...
I just dont buy the lines even from people who 'get it' who conclude we'll just autopilot it until 6 or 9 months from now and THEN its safe to stop all the manipulation and money pumping.... I just think they simply dont know what the hell to do now. The way I see it is like all the James Bond villains best laid plans, looks real good on paper, but it always goes wrong in the end.
The mother of all nail in the coffin sell programs is lurking now. Down side sell tests resulted in...ummmm...more grimness.
Deploy the crocodile algo!
Monday will be interesting
There is a hedge fund out there buying XIV, selling VXX and putting strangles on the spot VIX due to expire in 4 days.
I do believe that firm is going to need a bailout next week.
Here comes the crocodile!
Get that hedge fund bailout ready. Per the VIX, I understand super complicated trading ideas are working out really well these days.
VXX rising in the AH back to the highs of the day.
I'm not saying that this doesn't end badly ... actually, I think there is a 100% chance that this ends in economic collapse. I've just given up on trying to time it ...
I bought TWWI on wednesday and made 100% profit in about a hour. Stock Legends has another big alert coming this weekend for monday. http://stocklegends.com
Oi, gimme the Black Box as a souvenir when the plane crashes.
bdc63
you are dead on. The brain thinks instantly the markets move slowly. Slowing things down in your brain helps you become a much much better investor / Trader / Speculator
yup
sometimes, for sure
but this is also the most 'screwed down' market movement i've seen. ever
I should have said this general concensus that the next '6 to 9 months are pretty much totaly safe and in the bag' is what Im not buying into, along with the 'dont worry, even if markets do fall, Big Benevolent Bernank will be there to catch us'...nah I dont trust nor believe in any of it 1 bit.
Spot on. And there's good reason why no one should believe in BB's omnipotence. The turn in SPX in March 2009 was not timed w/any QE or other central bank program. One thing times almost precisely w/the turn however: it was suspension of mark to market rules. Banks were given free reign to mark their assets and liabilities essentially however they liked. Notice that banks mark down their sub-debt liabilities as the market does likewise, but do not behave symmetrically w/their assets. This overstates capital and their financial strength. It was government sanctioned fraud and those are the fumes on which this market has been running.
While BB's injections of liquidity can make the market's corpse jump, it cannot revive it. Liquidity is not capital. The only thing BB has done besides buy time (time in fact that was evidently squandered by Dimon et. al.), was to make a big problem even bigger and now intractable. Nice work.
No doubt. This is one big huge game of Risk.
I think the destination ends up being the site of the crash. There's always a destination..
While I agree the elections are a fraud, the most important part of making a fraud work is keeping the mark from recognizing it.
That's why the next six months are important -- keeping up appearances of normalcy so the sheep don't wake up and suddenly start making demands that they would hold the pols to. It's one thing to say you believe in gay marriage without actually taking any legislative action, it's quite another to be told you need to disband the Fed and have the bill to do it shoved under your nose after getting a petition signed by 10 million sheep. That is why they care about the next six months. The illusion is very important to TPTB remaining in power.
That is why I will be writing in Ron Paul no matter what.
It will get really grim when Israel hits Iran...
Message to deep sea diver: "Surface at once. Ship is sinking."
Nothing the theft of a few more trillion clownbux can't fix.
"Don't start buying until there is blood in the streets."
and/or "When there's blood in the streets, I buy."
long
silver and blood...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/11/italian-anarchists-kneecap-n...
don't even get in when the streets are awash in blood -- let the vampires and ghouls have their day -- they're about to cannibalize one another...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9my1tAzLK8g
they're panicing out there, I can feel it...
I blame the g.i. joe with the kung fu grip.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI4fVgVVpiw
Lets hope they do something stupid.
Stupid? Like loaning $400 billion to Greece?
I like to lick the pan-icing.
"Equity markets will not stand idly by as the investment grade credit market violently jerks wider"
... but yet there they are ... idling ... without a care in the world ...
There was time when the S&P had a "trap door" known as part of 2-way risk. Now that trap door is bolted shut. It is truly unbelievable.
"Equity Markets"?? What "Equity Markets"?
The only big player left in the "Equity Markets" is the FED.
Exactly, there is no market, period.
How long did it take for the real jolts to be felt in the equity markets last time 'round? Was it 3 days or so? Next week should be fun.
Seemed to take forever while watching it, but then a couple down days of -1,000 points made it all seem very quick.
thx tyler, very useful intercorrelation charts.
Look Oil intraday movement, very very strange...
Maybe 87 next swing trade?for oil
I don't see how the FED could pull off QE3 without crude below $90 ... maybe even $80 ...
All is well now, Iran and the U.S are allies
Yes, and together they will destroy the earth. Everything makes sense.
Green close today
Red open sunday nite
MF Morgan
Or JP Global
Glad to know that the stress tests proved to be absolutely useless.
holy divergence batman!
Sheila Bair is on CNBC explaining how the JPM debacle is no big deal. Apparently the loss is chump change, plus it's not systemic, so there's no reason for concern. These hedges are complicated, she explained, and JPM just got it wrong. Move along, nothing to see.
The Bair Witch project.
Problem with Old Shelia's answer is that this could be the tip of the iceberg. That this trade might be a lot bigger then anyone outside of the CIO office knows, hence the loss might be a hell of a lot bigger. Everyone knows who is on the one side of the trade so everyone else on the other side is going to squeeze the shit out of JPM....
I wonder if this will be a one page or three page bailout request...like Paulson had.....I hope they use crayons..that will look cute in the Smithsonian archives......
Yes, I'm sure that Jamie Dimon just came out and knocked billions off of JPM shareholder value because it was nothing. These people lie so fucking much it makes me puke. The saddest thing is what kind of young person just entering the workforce would want to get involved in this business? Only one kind, the lying pukes kind. Thus we have a sort of self-fullfilling prophecy, where lying puke begets lying puke.
Or a young puke who wants to make a lot of money and get laid a lot. And begin the red down arrows in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, NOW.
Exactly, so, but in this case your puke is cleaner than their souls. One does not have an "emergency meeting" and not have a significant liability problem.
A delicious pot of simmering Sheeple-Frog soup.......yum.
Where art thou PPT? Save us!
Maybe this time equity markets are right....
Equity markets right about what, that theyre full retarded? Id agree with them.
All the crooks need to do is the same ol recipe they have been cooking for the last 3 years: A hint at QE, some rapid HFT buying and a massive short squeeze ensues to new highs on the S&P. It will keep working until it doesn't and I'm not betting against it... yet.
Corzine can't help but gleem some satisfaction from all of this, I'm sure.
What is better than a DHS bullet?
Facebook Eyes Higher Price Range: Sources
Does this have anything to do with CHK? Has to be related somehow. Kevin Bacon involved perhaps?
60
It's crazy. Maybe Ben will drop money from the helicopters if the slide doesn't stop.
Beevis: "Did you say fall out?"
Benhead: "yeah, yeah, ...don't talk to me while I jerk over Jamie!"
Come on green! How hard is a couple points Bernank??
The mining companies look like they are the ones who own the derivates.
.
es sells, but whos buying
Why do people keep saying JPM's loss was a "couple billion" as far as I can tell, those funds are leveraged at least 100x. A couple hundred billion will be a problem for the taxpayer, eventually.
AS I recall the Sub-Prime "problem" was only going to be a couple of billion, until it was not...
Superheroes, Good vs. Evil, & Revelations (to reveal)
…get yourself a lawn chair and a cup of coffee, set up on the far bluff, and watch the sh-show.
State preemption fronting for federal preemption fronting for empire preemption fronting for common law; it’s all feudalism.
“Just like that, the storied annals of Wall Street can now add "London Whale" to a growing list of infamous traders who have blown themselves up and left their employers (the taxpayers) with a hefty bill.” “Eduardo Saverin, the co- founder of Facebook, renounced his U.S. citizenship before an IPO that values the social network at as much as $96 billion, a move that may reduce his tax bill.”
Don’t step on your own banana peel, which is a picture of yourself at the center of the Zuckerberg universe. Facebook was built for mental midgets, fake people in a fake universe full of cheap toys instead of a life, all trying to be each other and getting nothing worthwhile for free.
By all means, hold onto that free money with a tight fist, while everyone with ½ a brain cell gets on with life. O-o-o-o-o-o-evil; frightening isn’t it? Good vs. evil is a child’s game, always resulting in tyrants. Many children just get better at hiding themselves from themselves as they get older. Empire babies having empire babies, problems creating problems is the problem, but it also the solution, if you turn the empire on its head, which effective parents can do at will, because they are always preparing for judgment, and there is never a shortage of judges, hammers looking for nails, to set the appropriate example. Timing is everything.
Think before you give someone else a gun and a badge to protect your liberty, to avoid the responsibility. Live up to your children’s aspirations instead.
Children come into the empire projection as aliens, naturally assuming that their parents, their proximate example, which may be conforming, socially nonconforming, or lawfully nonconforming, are superheroes, observing them and then others, to tune the noise into channels. Many adopt the examples in their environment; some do not. In any case, they will all find intelligence in their midst, to the extent they seek it, because the mind is an explicit pattern matcher, implicitly activated. What does not fit the pattern? What is unique? Why? What is the feedback?
The critical vote for the empire is feminists who think they are not feminists, loose protons that want to think they are electrons, looking to pair, in a world of men and women haters. Like it or not, isms are like the Borg, powered by hate posing as love, so dense that the individual cannot escape of its own will. Like it or not, women are much more tightly bound to the rhythm of the planet, but it is the empire creating the delusion of fault. Having babies is an opportunity or a threat, depending upon how you look at the empire. All life must pass through that channel, which is why the intelligent male keeps his distance, and remains mobile until death. The empire creates the divide and conquer mythology accordingly, which is filled by the middle class buffer, acting as a quantum switch.
There is nothing quite like young love, which you can find in any romance novel, to attach a string, but it is mature love that sustains life, and you cannot buy it from a corporation, public, private, non-profit, or otherwise. The best things in life are free, but they must be given willingly, not stolen with misdirection by a bunch of teenagers in robes, telling everyone else how they must live their lives. Do you really think grownups are going to follow the current example set by the United States, by force or otherwise?
It’s the end of the Christian empire, we are not all going to die, and all the empire liars want to be the end-of-days prophet. Go ahead, kill yourself with anxiety, but don’t blame God and expect charity because you chose to be stupid of your own free will. Hitler, Nationalistic Socialism, was a symptom, a derivative of a derivative of a derivative, a robot of, by and for the robots.
Contrary to empire mythology, you cannot solve a problem by sitting in a building arguing over how someone else is going to solve the problem. Just start walking in the direction of the problem, directly against the headwind, in another dimension, and the pieces / stepping stones to the solution will present themselves, if you are of goodwill, because you will require assistance, from someone with the experience necessary to know what you will need before you need it, the kindness of a stranger.
There is always an empire, an empire under construction, and an empire under design. Effective parents are enterprise architects, and they do not work for the Governor, regardless of perception. That would be a-backward. Sometimes a nail is a nail and sometimes it isn’t. Adjust accordingly.
You been saving that up for just the right moment? Sorry, didn't read, my attention span has been perverted by Facebook and the empire.
I will refrain from picking this post apart...it is best that everyone sees the framework of ideas opposing them as is, for themselves and come to their own conclusions.
tl;dr
Keeps getting better. Reports of a $2B loss had me figuring it was really going to be $5B. http://sherriequestioningall.blogspot.com/2012/05/bernanke-weds-51012-in-speech-at-bank.html
says it is really about -$18B....... Hmmm
you are being optimistic, that paper was leveraged almost 100x. No lube for the taxpayer this time around.
I dont know which bonds and cds will have the most impact on jamie's gaping asshole
. I sold my entire hedged bond portfolio. I know it aint much but if we all did it we could shove that dildo in a little deeper.
Come on guys help out. Most of you were probably going to shorten average maturity in ur portfolio anyway this year. Go ahead and do it now and close outt ur hedges. Every drop in the bucket counts right now. Or just sell ur bonds. Good time to take gains
I want every regulator to know that I am officially advocating collusion. Apparently regs are meaningless nowdays since they are not enforced even when the obvious has been pointed out by zero hedge and others
I advocate all bond holders sell right now even just ten percent of ur holdings will help This is the financial equivalent of a distributed denial of service lol
Shouldn't it be ...theJPM/Imbesil
debacle?
I think its about to get fun out there.
Greece defaults on its Foriegn Law Bonds this weekend. Then on Thursday it becomes clear we are going to a second election where Syrza will take 1st and get the 50 bonus votes.
The Facebook IPO will probably mark the top of the market. Its a big issueance ($12BBN) so its gonna take all the air out of the market for this to rip. All the bankers will get paid, all the HFs that get allocations will get their pop and then well go full risk off.
Agree with your general thesis, but wonder about the timing.
Ideally, they'd want to entice Joe Public back with mutual fund inflows so they have naive takers to unload all their crap onto (that's what Goldman tried with their recent "historic opportunity in equities", only they were a bit late, calling the interim top rather than laying a successful trap). If AAPL pulls back to 538 (giving Uncle Joe a chance to grab what he thought he missed), then the Fakebook IPO goes well, Bennie B.'s henchmen drop a few QE references during speeches to local Kiwanis clubs and another fake Europen 'solution' emerges, then some would argue individual investors might nibble, particularly if the algos give us a few 300 pt plus DOW days in a row as bait.
But ... there's another scenario: continued domestic and global disappointments (both econ data and leadership) cause a pre-Fuckbook IPO market meltdown (a delay in the IPO may give a chance for this to develop), then it will be a much steeper risk-off drop, won't it, given the public has nothing to sell, and the pros have faster trigger fingers, selling to each other in a bit of a maelstrom (?)
Answered my own question.
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