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Odds Of Avoiding Recession: One In Thirty
We have seen a number of leading indicators recently (for example, we were first to note the FedEx implications for GDP) that point to a rapidly rising probability of recession. Today, via Bloomberg Brief, is a look inside the Philly Fed state economic indexes. To be specific, we look at the six-month ahead outlook for each state. Only once in the last 30 years did 20 states possess a negative outlook and the overall economy avoid recession.
Chart: Bloomberg
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look out for that bananna peel!!..lol
Dammit.....I told him not to step on it.
There's another regulation that needs to be written.
You can't have a 32oz soda.....but you can have two 16oz ones. If you buy three we'll throw in a bottle of Jack.
Are you allowed to sell empty 32 oz containers? Hey business idea: Open a kiosk in Timesquare selling 32 oz containters for any dual wielding 16 oz drinkers.
It's fine if it's paper.......sell a plastic one and it's off to jail for you.
Relax, QE3 will fix it.
QE3 won't do much....but the infinity we're cleared for has got to work eventually.
Recession? What recession. I know there will be no recession, because I have in front of me today's newspaper, put out by the sorry statists at the Washington Post. Front page article entitled "Thriving Through The Tough Times - Even After Recession Took Its Toll, Seven Counties in the Washington Region Rank Among Nation's Most Affluent"
http://thewashingtonpost.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx
First sentence: The Washington region has emerged from the recession looking even more affluent compared with the rest of the country....
The statists would like for you to believe that:
1) Obama pulled us out of recession
2) All is well
3) A vote for Obama in November is in order.
Take that America - we're getting stinking rich here in DC.
The market always goes up, taking a few breaks that occur in corrections. After these corrections, the market resumes its upward path. Regardless of the bad (or good) news, the market has risen enough to justify a pause. Most short-term indicators (stochastic, RSI, etc.) Show overbought condition. The important thing is that these do not break support levels. Until this happens, the market will continue to rise.
For my own sanity, I'm throwing in a "/sarc"
Never left the recession, WTF?
Color blind green chutes.
It used to be recessions were like burning a forest - came back stronger and healthier. Now politically connected companies/banks are not allowed to fail, so its like keeping the dead trees around.
Correct...and then the BIG fire occurs.....burning physical towns and businesses. Buit wait...then those "victims" must come to the Fed Gov't for assistance..right?
Of course we left the recession. Don't you remember Obama and Biden's celebration of The Summer of Recovery, complete with party hats? Animal spirits dancing in the streets, gala partying by the Obama administration that pointed to mega success stories like....drumroll...Wal Mart! 2009 is when we left the recession, our dear leader said so. This -new- recession is entirely the fault everyone else but the WH and Congress.
If you got paper, roll 'em and burn.
Pssst ... it was really cash-for-clunkers that finally broke-the-back of the great recession and bought things back to global munificence again.
At least that's what will stand proud within the historical retrospective piece about the visionary Obama Presidency that airs on PBS Newshour in Sept 21st 2048.
"...The great Barack Obama was so amazingly skilled in the job, that America returned him to office again in 2012, with an enlarged majority, as their ringing endorsement of his sparkling pageant of policy successes. 'More of the Same!', was the deafening catch-cry chanted by the crowd as he attempted to deliver his election-night victory speech. ..."
Ah right, Cash for Clunkers. How could I forget! The only time in the American street theft industry that saw more second and third hand cars being stolen than new models. What a great time that was.
right "Mission accomplished"
ignore the right/left bullshit. There is ony one party, for the banks and financial houses, by the banks and financial houses.
bloody sheep.
states don't matter, only bank bonuses matter
Bank bonuses matter most, but stock option grants of all fortune 500 company executives aren't far behind.
Well, so long as te Fed is buying, yes. Not so much when everything goes bidless.
Numbers......Charts......Flying Pigs......You're the best lover ever.......
I've been lied to so much, I'm actually believing in this stuff.
Odds the administration will claim we're in a recession, while we're clearly in a recession, anytime before election day? Zero.
“An invasion of armies can be resisted, but not an idea whose time has come.” —Victor Hugo
[Deleted]
Like I said, Obama is a lock. What do you need in hard times? A sugar daddy. At least that's the easy way out.
Why is it that trickle down was trickle down but bank bailouts are a *stimulus*?
"Stimulus" was a midnight pity poke between two lovers - political parties and banks.
Of course, since elected leaders are more like drunken retards playing in a casino with the chips of other people, they are likely to find that 1/30 are good odds. Explains why they went all in last week.
ECRI has been right on the money. Clearly all the printing, swapping, slashing, sterilizing, repoing, and bullshiting to the moon have delayed the drop off the cliff.
But it will not stop the inevitable.
Economic indexes, leading indicators, blah blah blah...the only indicator that matters is Fuck You Bernanke and his print indicator.
The EU is about to forbid.. nope .. slow down HFT trading, according to Handelsblatt.com. Bid minimum lifetime: 500ms.
Ack, ack, ack. Ack.
“Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the boisterous sea of liberty.” —Thomas Jefferson
Hickory dickory dock...
this chick was sucking.....
ah.....Andrew Dice Clay.....good shit!!!
Neil and Bob for President 2012.
You do understand
Dice=Banks in this rhyme.
You my friend are getting dropped off.
So it's one in thirty that the current depression will improve into a mere recession?
The disintigration will continue and there is no power great enough to stop it. It's our destiny.
"I find your lack of faith disturbing."
Priced In
bullish!... someone had to say it
So I have a better chance of hitting red or black on a roulette wheel than a recession happening.
Who wants to borrow some money from the Fed and put the entire thing on black!
So you're telling me there's a chance???
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCKOI24k_UY
+oo
I knew you were quoting that scene before I clicked the link. Awesome comment!
The Great Recession that Americans never saw may yet be seen. Can the federal government spend more? Can the Fed promise more? We'll see, until then "It's Free, Swipe Yo EBT".
http://youtu.be/luo40WjBKWI
Imagine would it would look like based on real data.
Entering a deeper part of the depression just when the Bernanke's printer pedal is causing him to limp. This is not good.
We are still in a recession. If you calculate GDP and CPI the way they used to calculate these things 10 years ago or 20 years ago, they both show that CPI has gone up faster than GDP, and that real GDP growth has been negative since 2006.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts
Romney is right, I am a victim of criminal/terrorists like him.
From the chart:
# of times that 20+ states with neg outlook lead to recession = 4
# of times that 20+ states with neg outlook did not lead to recession = 1
So from the chart, it makes more sense to read that there's a 1-in-5 chance of avoiding a recession. But common sense and basic math says it's practically inevitable.
Also, the chart is indicating that recessions/depressions are getting more severe, which also agrees with common sense and basic math.
The only recovery from this point forward is if the fed members, their bankster members, and all of Wall Street changed from their ponzi mode to actually rolling up their sleeves and producing products of value. The chance approaches zero since the parasite thinks it will survive with business as normal. Besides, the only skill they have is theft.