Oil And Gold Seasonals Suggest BTFD

Tyler Durden's picture

The long-term seasonal data for gold and oil has not just remained relatively highly correlated over time but, as Barclays points out today, has very clear periods of bearishness, consolidation, and bullishness. While Gold may have another month of treading water, the period from September to mid-October is empirically bullish while Brent's August to mid-October period is the most bullish segment of the year. Given gold's stability in the past month or so since the EU Summit, and oil's surge (and modest pull-back very recently), seasonals certainly provide some technical support for BTFD here in these QE-sensitive, real assets.


Brent Crude's two major bullish seasonals...


and Gold's three periods of bullish seasonality...

Source: Barclays

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bnbdnb's picture

Follow these two charts, and buy the dips at 10:00am every day the fed buys treasuries (close at 4:00pm) = $$$


I have to poop.

 Paper sucks, you Wall Street fucks!

I'll see you vampires in the sun,

with my loaded silver gun.

Yer goin' down in flames,

from Lower Manhattan to the Thames.

Your paper is I know not where,

I'd rather shit my underwear!

For, be there bull,

or be there bear,

silver is the suit I wear!

(With gratitude, and apologies to Dr. Seuss.)


The only paper I own is the stuff I wipe my ass with. Market paper is worthless, because I cannot do a good job of wiping my ass with it. Gold was worth $28.00 an ounce when I was a kid. Silver was worth whatever was printed on the coin you spent. Any one think those days are coming back? All of the lying bum fucking aristocracy of the Age Of Paper Power can burn in their paper suits soonest. I won't even bother pissing on them to put out the flames.

I collect gold, silver, lead, copper, real dry powder, food, tools, diesel fuel, and other useful commodities. There is a community of folks all doing the same, so skill sets and extra eyes and hands can guard each others sixes, and "break on through to the other side, break on through to the other side, YEAH


HFT ain't good for me. 

Credit defaults far as the eye can see.

CDS's gonna make some messes.
Boo hoo hoo as thieves confesses.

TBTF gonna fall off a cliff - REAL NEAT.

Wall Street is a bunch of fucking dead meat.


Banks used to be so overleveraged bold.

Now, they're layin' bankrupt,dead and cold.

Gonna be nothing but prepper people,

all the rest gonna be surprised fucked up Sheeple.

God bless this mess.

I must confess.

I'm a fucking poet,


and didn't even know it.



francis_sawyer's picture

Technicals?... Really? TECHNICALS?... Are these charts produced by the fucking 'jayvee' who are not invited to Gatsby's gig at the East Egg cotillion? (or otherwise occupied giving testimony at the latest Congressional kangaroo court)?

4horse's picture

. . . technically, Jay Gatz himself is mostly a no-show at his own East Egg cotillion, perhaps aware of what shiksa as he awaits might overhear cries of wolfsheim. rothstein. rothschild etc et al.

francis_sawyer's picture

yeah... but he has nice shirts... so he has that going for him...

Muppet of the Universe's picture

After Short Crude at 92.50, and telling everyone on zerohedge to short oil at 92 flat... 

I have bought to cover at 88.00 flat. Please, take my advice.



Seriously, btfd ufi

Debugas's picture

Gold in EUR terms is very stable for more than a year it is trading in 1200-1300 EUR range

buzzsaw99's picture

Buy oil on the crimex? LOLOLOLOLOL!!!

zero19451945's picture

Dow now down less than 1%. Economic implosion of an entire continent and the most we can manage is a .9% drop.

q99x2's picture

I left for a few morning hours and came back to BTFD but someone bagged that rare creature before I got to it. I don't know if I should wait around for another to come by or not. The typical FED algo supported chart pattern of +/- .005 percent seems to have already been in place for at least two hours now. Awh. fuck The Fuckin Dip.

Quisat_Sadarak's picture

I always buy the dip with my chip stocks. ;-)

monopoly's picture

Charts would be great if we had free markets. And half the planet is headed for a depression, including US, and the Dow is down less than 1% on the implosion of Spain, Italy. Absurd. 

monopoly's picture

Everyone thinking AAPL will save us tomorrow and than AMZN will put the icing on the cake to buy stocks. Just follow the crowd over the cliff.

gjp's picture

The only dip they are buying, of course, is the one in the Nasdaq, Apple, Amazon, etc.  As Robotrader might say, another perfectly executed stick save, a 45% upslope march from the open, total control.  What will it take to kill this zombie market Pavlovian nightmare?

apberusdisvet's picture

The final dagger to the EU will be the 9/12 German court decision.  Very coincidental with Tyler's prediction on an over to the US debt ceiling.  Perfect storm arising for a COMEX default?

Bastiat009's picture

And here comes the comex default story again ... is it the default that was supposed to happen in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011?

It's like Greece has been saved again and again and again ... tiring and most importantly completely false.

Bastiat009's picture

On a long enough timeline .... gold will be go up .. one day, you'll see.

fuu's picture

Although you are never around when it is.

Al Huxley's picture

I'd like to buy the dip, but I've got UST fever!  In at 1.4%, out at 1.2% FTW!  What could go wrong?

zerotohero's picture

Nothing I like better than a cold beer and some good chips to go with dip.

Yardfarmer's picture

the name of the game is CONTROL.and we all know who's in control. Bernanke and the Fed have been a little more resilient, crafty, and unpredictable than we might have been led to expect from the likes of Jim "Mr. Gold" Sinclair. While chopping sideways through the most of this year after the inglorious beatdown when Au was hammered down $400 and Ag was taken down almost 50% by the cartel naked shorts, the metals appear anemic, overbought, and just plain tired.

Oh yeah, we have the Asian buyers, Central Banks and (solvent) Sovereigns all stacking bars and Au certainly has outpaced equities and the dismal US$, but MOPE, Extend and Pretend and above all CRIMEX manipulation are proving to be very exceptionally effective weapons in the fight against true price discovery in the precious metals.

If MFG, JPM and PFG corruption and theft, the ongoing Eurocalypso, JPM fraud and LIBORgate, US economic deepfreeze and 22% real unemployment and a defacto police state not to speak of WWIII boiling across MENA and Central Asia, are not bringing JQ Public into gold and silver, institutional and commercial investors are piling in and the latest COT bars look like Au/Ag have plenty of upside.

One thing is for certain. With a massive liquidity squeeze tightening up every day and margin calls the order of the day, the physical is flowing out the back door from the small holders all the way up to the big players with no relief in sight. It will only get harder to hold on to the metals, much less acquire an increasingly disappearing and most precious commodity. On the other hand $1575/oz. may still be the best buy you'll ever make. And $28 for Ag is a steal.

sudzee's picture

The small guy doesn't sell physical instead adds continally to hi stash.

kito's picture

wouldnt it be ironic..that the mockery of "this time is different" actually applies to the beliefs held on zh.....that in fact, we are the ones screaming "this time its different-this time there will be a worldwide monetary implosion causing massive social upheavel."... .and yet it turns out to the contrary...that markets will continue on, that there will wont be an imminent monetary armageddon.......just a thought i continue to have on an increasing basis...........

Clowns on Acid's picture

kito - of course one should always consider the other side of the argument....however...

  1. the ECB has the decision rapidly approaching (Sept ?)...of whether they should (Germany) print in order to backstop the EUR and indeed the future of the Euro itself.
  2. If Europe goes down (as it is presently) the Fed and US Gov't will have to do something even more radical and market chaging than they have already. Print, offer negative interest rates to banks so that the banks "lend" rather indiscriminitely, pump housing markets with tax breaks and low down payments (look at equity prices of home builders),.
  3. If stimulus does provide an uptick....what happens to price of 10yr..? What do foreign holders do with US bonds?
  4. The evidence is that there will be attempts at reflation....therefore there is inflation ...or/and they destroy fiat currency.
  5. Can the markets just plod along without any major disruptions given the above choices?
fonzannoon's picture

Clowns allow me to take a shot at it.

The ECB decision will be leaked in advance to the TBTF that they will somehow be accomodative. The TBTF banks will begin to unload their treasuries so yields will leak up for some unknown reason in advance. Foreign holders of US bonds deal with it. Bernanke punts on this ECB good news and says he wants to see how it plays out. The markets wash the good news from the ecb and the no news from the fed and yes they just plod along. In the meantime we get older and give less of a shit.

Snake's picture

IMHO "markets" will go on, for a while.  TPTB stil have a lot of tricks up the sleeve. Also, in the last decade the political/financial systems of the "developed" world have become increasingly shameless, thus able/willing to push, pull and kick, lie, cheat and deceive to amazing extremes.  However, in the end reality (debt, together with the price of food and oil, people's misery and the unrest or social violence of those with nothing to lose) will make a change.  Cuts in Spain, for example, will be truly and widely felt six months from now.  My guess is we stil have a year before half of the world (real people, "down at the farm") become(s) aware of having reached a def/final point of no return.

fonzannoon's picture

Kito you ever see Kingpin?

"How's life?"

"Taking forever"

Freebird's picture

Nothing...could go wrong.

Moe Howard's picture

No charts needed. Purchase and hold physical. Paper is for pussies.

CCanuck's picture

That's why soooooo many guys are play'n in paper, its full of pussy!

smiler03's picture

Purchase and take delivery in barrels, ermmm

The worst trader's picture

Dam! I missed the memo, BTFD.

tongue.stan's picture

Barclays. Pfffft.

The Onion Of Twickenham's picture

Technicals? How wonderfully quaint!

Stuart's picture

not last year!

Plata is money's picture

Gold seasonals have been totally off since the end of summer 2011. In fact, had you made bets based on them since that time you would have had your ass handed to you many times over. Just saying.