Oil And Gold Seasonals Suggest BTFD

Tyler Durden's picture


The long-term seasonal data for gold and oil has not just remained relatively highly correlated over time but, as Barclays points out today, has very clear periods of bearishness, consolidation, and bullishness. While Gold may have another month of treading water, the period from September to mid-October is empirically bullish while Brent's August to mid-October period is the most bullish segment of the year. Given gold's stability in the past month or so since the EU Summit, and oil's surge (and modest pull-back very recently), seasonals certainly provide some technical support for BTFD here in these QE-sensitive, real assets.


Brent Crude's two major bullish seasonals...


and Gold's three periods of bullish seasonality...

Source: Barclays

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Mon, 07/23/2012 - 13:49 | 2643218 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Follow these two charts, and buy the dips at 10:00am every day the fed buys treasuries (close at 4:00pm) = $$$

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:08 | 2643258 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

i have a headache

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:26 | 2643336 SILVERGEDDON

I have to poop.

 Paper sucks, you Wall Street fucks!

I'll see you vampires in the sun,

with my loaded silver gun.

Yer goin' down in flames,

from Lower Manhattan to the Thames.

Your paper is I know not where,

I'd rather shit my underwear!

For, be there bull,

or be there bear,

silver is the suit I wear!

(With gratitude, and apologies to Dr. Seuss.)


The only paper I own is the stuff I wipe my ass with. Market paper is worthless, because I cannot do a good job of wiping my ass with it. Gold was worth $28.00 an ounce when I was a kid. Silver was worth whatever was printed on the coin you spent. Any one think those days are coming back? All of the lying bum fucking aristocracy of the Age Of Paper Power can burn in their paper suits soonest. I won't even bother pissing on them to put out the flames.

I collect gold, silver, lead, copper, real dry powder, food, tools, diesel fuel, and other useful commodities. There is a community of folks all doing the same, so skill sets and extra eyes and hands can guard each others sixes, and "break on through to the other side, break on through to the other side, YEAH


HFT ain't good for me. 

Credit defaults far as the eye can see.

CDS's gonna make some messes.
Boo hoo hoo as thieves confesses.

TBTF gonna fall off a cliff - REAL NEAT.

Wall Street is a bunch of fucking dead meat.


Banks used to be so overleveraged bold.

Now, they're layin' bankrupt,dead and cold.

Gonna be nothing but prepper people,

all the rest gonna be surprised fucked up Sheeple.

God bless this mess.

I must confess.

I'm a fucking poet,


and didn't even know it.



Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:02 | 2643236 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Technicals?... Really? TECHNICALS?... Are these charts produced by the fucking 'jayvee' who are not invited to Gatsby's gig at the East Egg cotillion? (or otherwise occupied giving testimony at the latest Congressional kangaroo court)?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 15:57 | 2643589 4horse
4horse's picture

. . . technically, Jay Gatz himself is mostly a no-show at his own East Egg cotillion, perhaps aware of what shiksa as he awaits might overhear cries of wolfsheim. rothstein. rothschild etc et al.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 16:06 | 2643609 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

yeah... but he has nice shirts... so he has that going for him...

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 16:19 | 2643634 4horse
4horse's picture


Mon, 07/23/2012 - 16:21 | 2643637 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

After Short Crude at 92.50, and telling everyone on zerohedge to short oil at 92 flat... 

I have bought to cover at 88.00 flat. Please, take my advice.



Seriously, btfd ufi

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 13:58 | 2643240 Debugas
Debugas's picture

Gold in EUR terms is very stable for more than a year it is trading in 1200-1300 EUR range

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:08 | 2643260 reload
reload's picture

The Gold in my possesion has been far more `stable` than the £ in my bank account, which has on 3 occasions been the subject of `glitches` making it unavailable to me.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:13 | 2643280 Quisat_Sadarak
Quisat_Sadarak's picture

No Shit! Some of my relatives are still being affected by this 'glitch'... going on for at least 3 weeks now. Now really folks! Do you think a bank cant figure our how to account for money, deposits, and debits?

There is something fishy going on around here or my name isn't Larimore, ...and it isn't.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 13:58 | 2643241 battle axe
battle axe's picture


Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:07 | 2643254 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Buy oil on the crimex? LOLOLOLOLOL!!!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:08 | 2643257 zero19451945
zero19451945's picture

Dow now down less than 1%. Economic implosion of an entire continent and the most we can manage is a .9% drop.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:16 | 2643295 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture


Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:10 | 2643261 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I left for a few morning hours and came back to BTFD but someone bagged that rare creature before I got to it. I don't know if I should wait around for another to come by or not. The typical FED algo supported chart pattern of +/- .005 percent seems to have already been in place for at least two hours now. Awh. fuck The Fuckin Dip.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:16 | 2643296 Quisat_Sadarak
Quisat_Sadarak's picture

I always buy the dip with my chip stocks. ;-)

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:48 | 2643397 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture


Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:10 | 2643263 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Charts would be great if we had free markets. And half the planet is headed for a depression, including US, and the Dow is down less than 1% on the implosion of Spain, Italy. Absurd. 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:12 | 2643273 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Everyone thinking AAPL will save us tomorrow and than AMZN will put the icing on the cake to buy stocks. Just follow the crowd over the cliff.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:14 | 2643277 gjp
gjp's picture

The only dip they are buying, of course, is the one in the Nasdaq, Apple, Amazon, etc.  As Robotrader might say, another perfectly executed stick save, a 45% upslope march from the open, total control.  What will it take to kill this zombie market Pavlovian nightmare?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:30 | 2643347 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The final dagger to the EU will be the 9/12 German court decision.  Very coincidental with Tyler's prediction on an over to the US debt ceiling.  Perfect storm arising for a COMEX default?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:44 | 2643381 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

And here comes the comex default story again ... is it the default that was supposed to happen in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011?

It's like Greece has been saved again and again and again ... tiring and most importantly completely false.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:30 | 2643349 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

On a long enough timeline .... gold will be go up .. one day, you'll see.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 16:53 | 2643707 fuu
fuu's picture

Although you are never around when it is.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:42 | 2643380 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I'd like to buy the dip, but I've got UST fever!  In at 1.4%, out at 1.2% FTW!  What could go wrong?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 14:58 | 2643424 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Nothing I like better than a cold beer and some good chips to go with dip.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 15:01 | 2643430 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

the name of the game is CONTROL.and we all know who's in control. Bernanke and the Fed have been a little more resilient, crafty, and unpredictable than we might have been led to expect from the likes of Jim "Mr. Gold" Sinclair. While chopping sideways through the most of this year after the inglorious beatdown when Au was hammered down $400 and Ag was taken down almost 50% by the cartel naked shorts, the metals appear anemic, overbought, and just plain tired.

Oh yeah, we have the Asian buyers, Central Banks and (solvent) Sovereigns all stacking bars and Au certainly has outpaced equities and the dismal US$, but MOPE, Extend and Pretend and above all CRIMEX manipulation are proving to be very exceptionally effective weapons in the fight against true price discovery in the precious metals.

If MFG, JPM and PFG corruption and theft, the ongoing Eurocalypso, JPM fraud and LIBORgate, US economic deepfreeze and 22% real unemployment and a defacto police state not to speak of WWIII boiling across MENA and Central Asia, are not bringing JQ Public into gold and silver, institutional and commercial investors are piling in and the latest COT bars look like Au/Ag have plenty of upside.

One thing is for certain. With a massive liquidity squeeze tightening up every day and margin calls the order of the day, the physical is flowing out the back door from the small holders all the way up to the big players with no relief in sight. It will only get harder to hold on to the metals, much less acquire an increasingly disappearing and most precious commodity. On the other hand $1575/oz. may still be the best buy you'll ever make. And $28 for Ag is a steal.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 16:08 | 2643615 sudzee
sudzee's picture

The small guy doesn't sell physical instead adds continally to hi stash.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 15:05 | 2643440 kito
kito's picture

wouldnt it be ironic..that the mockery of "this time is different" actually applies to the beliefs held on zh.....that in fact, we are the ones screaming "this time its different-this time there will be a worldwide monetary implosion causing massive social upheavel."... .and yet it turns out to the contrary...that markets will continue on, that there will wont be an imminent monetary armageddon.......just a thought i continue to have on an increasing basis...........

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 15:43 | 2643556 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

kito - of course one should always consider the other side of the argument....however...

  1. the ECB has the decision rapidly approaching (Sept ?)...of whether they should (Germany) print in order to backstop the EUR and indeed the future of the Euro itself.
  2. If Europe goes down (as it is presently) the Fed and US Gov't will have to do something even more radical and market chaging than they have already. Print, offer negative interest rates to banks so that the banks "lend" rather indiscriminitely, pump housing markets with tax breaks and low down payments (look at equity prices of home builders),.
  3. If stimulus does provide an uptick....what happens to price of 10yr..? What do foreign holders do with US bonds?
  4. The evidence is that there will be attempts at reflation....therefore there is inflation ...or/and they destroy fiat currency.
  5. Can the markets just plod along without any major disruptions given the above choices?
Mon, 07/23/2012 - 15:58 | 2643591 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Clowns allow me to take a shot at it.

The ECB decision will be leaked in advance to the TBTF that they will somehow be accomodative. The TBTF banks will begin to unload their treasuries so yields will leak up for some unknown reason in advance. Foreign holders of US bonds deal with it. Bernanke punts on this ECB good news and says he wants to see how it plays out. The markets wash the good news from the ecb and the no news from the fed and yes they just plod along. In the meantime we get older and give less of a shit.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:25 | 2643570 Snake
Snake's picture

IMHO "markets" will go on, for a while.  TPTB stil have a lot of tricks up the sleeve. Also, in the last decade the political/financial systems of the "developed" world have become increasingly shameless, thus able/willing to push, pull and kick, lie, cheat and deceive to amazing extremes.  However, in the end reality (debt, together with the price of food and oil, people's misery and the unrest or social violence of those with nothing to lose) will make a change.  Cuts in Spain, for example, will be truly and widely felt six months from now.  My guess is we stil have a year before half of the world (real people, "down at the farm") become(s) aware of having reached a def/final point of no return.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 15:55 | 2643582 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Kito you ever see Kingpin?

"How's life?"

"Taking forever"

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 15:06 | 2643442 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Nothing...could go wrong.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 15:17 | 2643478 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

No charts needed. Purchase and hold physical. Paper is for pussies.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 16:23 | 2643644 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

That's why soooooo many guys are play'n in paper, its full of pussy!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 19:11 | 2644028 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Purchase and take delivery in barrels, ermmm

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 15:28 | 2643518 The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

Dam! I missed the memo, BTFD.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 15:32 | 2643533 tongue.stan
tongue.stan's picture

Barclays. Pfffft.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 15:40 | 2643549 The Onion Of Tw...
The Onion Of Twickenham's picture

Technicals? How wonderfully quaint!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 16:00 | 2643595 Stuart
Stuart's picture

not last year!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 16:20 | 2643639 Plata is money
Plata is money's picture

Gold seasonals have been totally off since the end of summer 2011. In fact, had you made bets based on them since that time you would have had your ass handed to you many times over. Just saying.

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