Oil And Gold Seasonals Suggest BTFD

Tyler Durden's picture

The long-term seasonal data for gold and oil has not just remained relatively highly correlated over time but, as Barclays points out today, has very clear periods of bearishness, consolidation, and bullishness. While Gold may have another month of treading water, the period from September to mid-October is empirically bullish while Brent's August to mid-October period is the most bullish segment of the year. Given gold's stability in the past month or so since the EU Summit, and oil's surge (and modest pull-back very recently), seasonals certainly provide some technical support for BTFD here in these QE-sensitive, real assets.

 

Brent Crude's two major bullish seasonals...

 

and Gold's three periods of bullish seasonality...

Source: Barclays