This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Oil Inventories Jump And Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Drops To 28 Month Low
Yet another set of macro data that will keep 'em guessing as Oil inventories rose more than expected and the Kansas City Fed's Manufacturing index dropped to 28 month lows and went negative for the first time in two years. Oil inventories rose significantly (and WTI drops below $99) bucking the notable seasonal trend (and missed expectations dramatically). These two combined to be enough to take the edge off the rally in stocks and pull ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) back to its VWAP.
KC Fed went negative for the first time in two years and dropped to lows not seen since AUG09.
Seasonality is very strong in oil inventories (light blue line) making today's huge jump in inventories stand out even more (though last week's decade low shift seems to have helped). We also note that this is a deacde-old seasonal high build inventories.
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 5617 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
I smell a worldwide cognitive dissonance brewing.
I hope you make it to the john before it's too late. Clench those cheeks!!!
No problem, just put on Forever Lazy, the new uniform of the avg American, and you dont even need to take it off for those emergency massive dumps after you eat a bowl of cheese dip and bag of Lays chips while laying around the couch watching NFL Channel reruns on an average unemployed american weekday.
FOREVER LAZY COMMERCIAL - YouTube
Pros:
- warm
- made from recycled pop bottles
Cons:
- highly flammable / melts
Panem Et Circenses FTW!
So, once again, between Oil, Pm's and FX, we are in a FiX.
If all FX wants to be the weakest hand on the table and all Banksters want PM's supressed and rising oil is of course an all around nightmare.
All that says deflation. But deflation is good. So it will not be allowed.
How does this three legged complex move when the liquidity is finally and shamelessly turned off.
My brain just short-circuited.
ori
/world/
fix is right. we are coming up on the fifth month since john hussman called a recession. the positive surprises are rolling over. this mfg. index just went negative. oil inventories are up. bullish hit 50%. could be a rough first quarter for long u.s. equities. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110808.htm
and check out his last full length piece re: sine wave waving signs.
The NBA is back on and I have no time to think now! Did you see Wayne's buzzer beater? The Heat are on fire! Kobe's hand looks bad. The Lakers look bad. The Knicks look good! Bad.....good.....[droooool]
...and I hope you got some of those new basketball shoes people are just dying for.
Just go play some more golf...oh, sorry, I mistook you for some guy on a Hawaiian vacation.
Rasputin!
Of course I trust the oil inventory data 100%, just like all gubmin-blessed data. The cynics who say that this data is being manipulated by gubmin to keep oil prices down as they go through the pre-war prop on Iran because 6 dollar gas would be inconvenient have no merit whatsoever.
Michigan is happy, Kansas not so much, Philadelphia o' I forget
Peak Oil: it:s fake because the center of the earth is made out of cotton candy and oil. This is where the unicorns fly.
Daddy, where do skittles come from?
Great question! Skittles come from a factory at the North Pole, on the edge of the inner earth. The process is long and arduous. It starts with fire breathing dragons who melt unicorn horns down. Pig's wings are then added to the mixture, and this is then stirred by elves using gold spoons. Finally, bats are made to eat the substence, only to poop it out in little pellets. Thus, Skittles!
You, sir, are a blasphemer.
The little elven spoons are platinum.
and not only that but skittles was one of the hottest of perhaps a dozen white women in history.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Walters
Gas jumped 16 cents a gallon two days ago here. The local TV station asked an expert why:
"Right now, crude oil prices are going up because the financial markets believe the economy is getting better, if the economy gets better people will drive more, there will be more activity out there,” Edmiston Oil President Jon Callen said."
Investors are moving away from gold because it's not backed by anything. The dollar is backed by the federal reserve.
Sometimes I think that the matrix we live in is a very carefully created and elaborate conspiracy. Sometimes I just think people are dumb. These are not mutually exclusive options.
Well, to speak to your first option, who is to say it's a conspiracy, when everything is being laid right out in the open for all eyes to see?
Furthermore, they're not mutually exclusive, and you very well may be correct with both thoughts.
For the record, I agree with you on both, 100%.
"They" certainly seem to be a bit more brazen.
I believe they're so bold because we've passed the point of no return for undermining their plans (insert Mises' quote on "no escaping the consequences of a credit-fueled boom" here). They cannot create, so they destroy in order to steal what we've created, in an effort to maintain their monopolies of rule.
I see the doctrine of ZIRP4EVA as their effort to keep the upcoming disaster manageable. Thing is, there are trip-wires in place that even they've likely forgotten (or never knew) about. Which is one of the reasons that it is good to always have a war ready to start to divert attention from the true problems.
the audacity of mf global.
People are dumb worthless potatos? NAH! FOREVER LAZY COMMERCIAL - YouTube
It's a dress snuggie. I wear mine when I have company over.
You are not alone in your thinking.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on... or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
The USD is backed by oil. Oil sales require dollars. The relationship of the USD to oil is backed by the US military.
There's no magical consipiracy. And nor does the value of the USD magically levitate at these levels.
You don't think we invaded Iraq to get WMD's do you? And you also don't think we invaded to go and "get" the oil do you? Iraq agreed to sell oil in Euros. Period. Khadaffi wanted to sell oil in Dinar. Period.
Don't follow the money. Follow the bombs. Their purpose is to preserve the value of the money.
Petro dollars - you had me at "the USD is backed by oil". My post was a response the quote:
"Right now, crude oil prices are going up because the financial markets believe the economy is getting better, if the economy gets better people will drive more, there will be more activity out there,” Edmiston Oil President Jon Callen said."
So... where does Edmiston Oil President Jon Callen fit into the Matrix? Obviously what he is saying is wrong, but is it a lie? Is he a part of a grand conspiracy or is he dumb (or both). I could say that our institutions are engineered to create people like Jon Callen who doesn't actually know what he is saying, or he could be reading from a script.
The quote I provided... that "reporter" is dumb... but someone smart provided her with an "education" of some sort, gave her a job, and put her on the air.
Mr. Popo- while I agree with your premise, don't you think the trillions of USD spent on the wars to keep Saddam and the Colonel from selling their oil in currencies other than the Bernie buck will ulimately spell it's own demise? Is that not the same as maxing out one credit card in order to pay off the other? Just sayin.
Oh, I completely agree. Although along the way, the MIC gets rich -- so they 'encourage' our leaders in this respect...
it wasn't just oil. it was zionism too. saddam was giving $25,000 to the family of each suicide bomber attacking israel. see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century
That's as good as..."Gas Prices are up because oil supplies are "Better than Expected"!
Oil should be $75 or lower. Without Iran in the mix, it would be there now. There is no "growth" in demand on the horizon...
Demand may slip, but so will supply. Equilibrium is a bitch.
OPEC will ease off price levitation as growth slows (or disappears altogether), otherwise, they will add to the economic distress and become a focus of especially european ire. And North Dakota will pass (or just passed) Ecuador in production. Frack, baby, Frack!
Fracking does not have the EROEI to make up for the deminishing supply coming from OPEC. OPEC peaked when KSA did. KSA was the swing producer. Without a swing producer, price is not mitigated, hence, less supply.
Perhaps we differ on the extent to which demand will "slip"? Price is set at the margin in a functioning market, except when it isn't and instead is artificially supported by the cartel and speculation. I am not short oil, btw, becasue I fully expect that Iran will erupt into a problem, most likely due to a false flag operation... Haliburton wins again.
Horizontal wells see their production go vertical down within a year. The produciton projections people are quoting are using conventional well profiles for gradual post peak production decline and HORIZONTALS DO NOT DO THAT.
Horizontals die vertically.
The production profile of a horizontal well is straight down. The drilling will be frantic to hold numbers constant. It is sprinting up a down escalator, and as more and more wells become 1 year old (when horizontals start to die), the down escalator is speeding up.
This happens because the oil is between layers of low permeability shale. The oil can't flow from up or down to the well hole. It flows only from sides and from ahead. As the sides get emptied, the only direction of flow is from ahead and the shale layer will then reach the end of the drill length maximum and die SUDDENLY.
The Bakken has oil. It will flow. And then it will stop. Suddenly, and at far far lower a rate than millions of bpd.
At the very most the Bakken will slow the overall decline from the dying fields in Alaska and Gulf of Mexico.
Oil is trading where it's @ due to money printing. The Saudis said they would offset the Iranian closing of Hormuz and let's be honest, the U.S wouldn't let Hormuz to remain closed for very long.
On average food prices are up 6% this year.
This is what is so silly about this payroll tax 'issue'. On average Americans are saving about $1,000 on the year, yet the loss for the rise in gasoline prices is around $4,500 for the average American. The higher the debt goes, the more the fed prints, the higher the prices go, the more people suffer. You can't print your away into prosperity, if you could everyone would do it.
While I agree that printing will be inflationary (massively) down the line, if your initial statement were true, Cotton, Cocoa, Sugar, etc. (all commodities that are used globally) would also be higher. Printing thus far has only offset the massive deflation we would otherwise be experiencing. The level of printing to come will make QE 1 thru 3 look like stable monetary policy. Remember, $15 Trillion and counting... IMO, OPEC is the reason oil is where it is, and the speculative juice provided by MENA tensions since last spring.
Spec the oil supply coming from KSA. If they could pump more they would.
And food prices increase because of the increase in oil. Once again, supply is a major driver. Yes the ag/vol of credit matters, but not any more than supply.
KSA peaked production years ago. They can't raise production. If the US fights Iran they fight Russia/China. That war would be WWIII and that would mean the end of the world as you know it.
If it's WWIII that's coming, let's get on with it and done in the next 10 years. My eldest son is 7... I'd rather not have to move to Canada if it starts in 5 years. Nor do I believe that conflict with Iran means Russia/China getting involved. They want WWIII not at all. Especially not now...not yet, anyway.
Here you go Captain: Store this somewhere for future reference... http://www.coppermoonshinestills.com/id62.html
Thanks Krid, but I would sooner move than have him (or the younger one) become a minister falsely. My wife is a Quaker (while I am an atheist) and thinks that the boys will be quakers, too, alleviating them of having to serve in a fighting capacity, at least. We will put them into quaker schools beginning in middle school. They may end up wanting to serve, who knows?...
Interesting reason for wanting war sooner rather than later. I've long been of the opinion that we should have kept the draft and never instituted a professional (volunteer) military. Voters need to "have some skin in the game", and little concentrates the mind more than having a son or daughter in harm's way. It took a while back during the Viet Nam conflict, but eventually parents got tired of seeing their sons maimed or killed. That led to Johnson deciding not to run for reelection and our eventual inglorious surrender/retreat. I'd also feel more comfortable if 60% or so of the Army was drafted because they'd be less likely, in a worst case scenario, to follow orders telling them to round up Mom, Dad and the grandparents and ship them off to some FEMA camp. It's too easy now for a president to get bored with things and go bomb Iraq or Libya or Syria or Pakistan or some farmers in the midwestern US.
It could, of course, be simply that I joined the USAF to avoid being drafted - probably into the Marines back then - and want the younger generations to have the same 'opportunities' I did in 1968.
Ah, yes, the basics. Remember when the OPEC 'price band' was $22-27?
The 'twin towers' of the US budget and trade deficit are mutually reinforcing due to the depreciation of the dollar and repricing of oil (our main trade deficit driver).
It is all very sad how few understand that the deficits lead directly to money coming out of our wallets at the gas pumps. I have actually had letters to editors published on this from time to time.
Having now established a WIDE range of 70-90 for the DXY dollar index, the central banking whores have latitude to push FX and thus commodity prices around to a shocking degree. Also to 'manage' little things like peak oil and the Iran war.
Be vewy, vewy careful this year. But keep stacking!!!
The money printing theory falls apart by virtue of simply 2008.
Oil spiked in 2008 before the printing got underway.
It's supply and demand. Supply can't rise. Demand does because population does.
A lot of people are going to die. Soon.
You gotta love these hadjis! Occupy all oil!
Ahmadinejad is second, I only like the fat baby dictator in North Korea more!Making reserves to attack Iran.
1 Sunburn anti ship missile into a tanker transiting the Hormuz, and its all over.
...but......but.....electric cars? solar power?
Germany is running just fine off of solar power.
Bullshit. A small bunkerbuster bomb will clear out any number of sunken ships in no time at all. The Strait would not remain closed for long.
Yup, the US would march in and just crush Iran like we crushed Iraq over the last 7 years and Af/Pak over the last 10. Get 'er done!
Just marching in to take over the world, now going on 10 years straight war crushing any past length of US continuous war. WW2 was just over 2 years total. I see no problems, really.
6 years for the Brits or French or Germans. Far longer for the Japanese, if you start with their adventures raping China. Dec. 1941 to August 1945 is more than "just over 2 years total". Anyway, wars have lasted much longer: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Years%27_War
LH, above you said it would be WWIII with Russia and China involved, but here "the US would march in and crush Iran"...did you forget the /sarc? I am not chiding you, just want to understand your position...
Oops, too bad the 'bunker busters' have faulty fuzes and dont work. BTW, what do you think they are anyway, 100MT nuclear devices?
Who is going to underwrite insurance policies for routes where ships are sunk and then cleared out by bunkerbusters?
Who is going to set sail with no insurance?
This is not new stuff. These scenarios have been on the table for 20 years. The difference now is Iranian domestic oil consumption has grown sharply, as has KSAs.
There is no answer to these problems. A great many people are going to die.
Soon.
Russian views on Iran:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/russianow/opinion/8931014/Iran-Russ...
That article was obviously a Russian psy-op to get people reading it to kill themselves due to mind tearing boredom.
Peeeeaaaaaaccceeeee......Braaaaaaaaaaaiiiiiiinnnnnnz.....
The perfect scenerio for war!
From reading all the articles and comments...I believe we're definitely at a point again where everyone is taken completely by surprise and screwed, just like 2008.
Everyones got it all too 'figured out'...I see the normalcy bias has set in, predictions for the whole year of 2012 already in the books...nah, something big is coming soon, theyre not going to let everyone get too comfortable.
Dow +100. Must.have.Happy.New.Year.for.Nightly.News.watchers.
well, other medias don't report this news.
You may want to point out that oil inventories dropped the most in 10 years last week. These figures, though, all depend on the week's imports, which were 9.0 million barrels per day versus about 7.7 last week.
The new group easily became a leader, showing in the 2010 nfl playoffs 7 out of 10 conditions from 1976 to 1985, such as one Community Title and another pennant, led by celebrities such as Henry Brett, Honest Bright and Bret Saberhagen. http://www.bbtix.com/kansas-city-royals-tickets.php