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Oil Surge Begins
Just as Europe seems destined to tip into recession and the US growth miracle decouples its reality from perceived global slowdowns, the oil market steps in to balance the equation. With WTI breaking $102 and Brent over $111 this morning, driven by Iran and Syria tensions, it would seem tough for a nation exporting its way to success, that is so dependent on both domestic consumer and energy to grow 'as expected' with energy premia so high - or perhaps the justification is the energy sector will carry the S&P through the next quarter as earnings expectations are cut. Nevertheless, as Reuters points out, the risk of supply disruptions remains high.
Reuters: Oil up near $111 on Iran supply risk concerns
Oil prices rose on Monday with Brent crude futures up near $111, extending last week's gains as rising tensions between Iran and the West increased the risk of disruption to crude shipments by the world's fifth-largest oil exporter.
Iran warned on Sunday that any move to block its oil exports would more than double crude prices with devastating consequences for a fragile global economy.
Brent crude was up $1.14 at $111.08 a barrel by 1313 GMT, after last week posting a gain of more than 3 percent, its best weekly gain since mid-October. Earlier Brent had pushed to an intraday high of $111.22 a barrel.
U.S. crude was up 81 cents to $101.77 a barrel, having posted a gain of 4.3 percent last week.
Christopher Bellew, an oil trader with Jefferies Bache in London, said that worries about Iran and Syria were helping to buoy oil prices. "If Iranian exports were suspended that would be very significant as the market is tight already," he said.
The European Union is considering a ban - already in place in the United States - on Iranian oil imports. The storming of the British Embassy in Tehran last week has opened the door for tougher action against Iran which is thought to be working on a nuclear bomb.
"The risk of disruptions to oil supplies remains high," said Christophe Barret, global oil analyst at Credit Agricole CIB. An embargo on Iranian oil "would introduce severe disruption to refining in several EU countries" he said.
Barret added that speculation about possible military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites have helped to increase the risk premium on oil prices.
But on Friday, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta made one of his most extensive arguments to date against any imminent military action against Iran over its nuclear programme, saying he was convinced sanctions and diplomatic pressure were working.
Israel has called a nuclear-armed Iran a threat. Iran says it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes.
In Syria, EU sanctions are already biting with Royal Dutch Shell shutting down its activities there.
On Monday, Gulfsands Petroleum said it was reviewing the impact of the latest EU sanctions against Syria on its production activities and its contracts with the Syrian government and the General Petroleum Corporation (GPC).
"Syria was exporting about 400,000 barrels per day at the start of the year and it is probably exporting nothing at the moment," said Bellew.
Oil ministers from OPEC members Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain said that the market was well supplied, echoing similar comments by Qatar's energy minister and the OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri at the weekend.
OPEC will meet next week in Vienna, but with Iran holding the presidency of the OPEC conference until the end of the year, analysts do not expect much from the meeting. Iran is OPEC's second-largest producer.
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This is why the United States will attack Iran. Oh wait, I forgot, it's all about nuclear energy.
Bernanke's got this covered...just give him 15 minutes.
Forget about nukes pointed at Israel (if only) and consider the ramifications of an Iran that is less dependent on exports or even drilling services to get the black stuff out of the ground because they have nuclear power generation to keep all those green bandanas tweeting.
How does attacking Iran lower the cost of oil again?
Great, will someone please tell Xcite Energy????
Why would you buy an estimation company in the oil business?
It's a third tier business, it doesn't make oil, just tells you how much its worth.
WTI is your friend with Oil always. hope you aren't underwater too much on it, your stop should have saved you in a drop.
Or did you not put in a stop? If not, I'm so sorry.
Does oil have the potential to break control and go to real value?
All this reeks of war. Tangentially or directly. And it's been 33 years since the first great oil shock...perhaps it's time. Now, we are more dependent than ever on the supply chain choke chain.
ORI
/the-plan/
The cold chain is the direct hit after the fact. It sort of supplies us with our daily bread, literally.
How's things in your neck of the woods?
Not good at all. India has the highest or close to the top three gas prices in the world. Relentless rises. Strong diesel/transporter lobby keeps it artificially low and less taxed. So petrol, which is how most of India gets by, is crazy expensive (almost $1.75 /Liter).
And they've really broken down the traditional hub and spoke produce distribution system into a pure logistics play.
Now my veg guy has fruits from New Zealand, US (Cali/FL/OR/WA), South Africa, Oz..... then India.
Typical, destroy existing infra, then unleash a price rise squeeze and then push through some draconian regulation (tolling of all roads, per mile tax, excuse for rampant inflation...whatever).
The grip is tightening everywhere.
ORI
Ori, according to the press, the BIG retail chains are taking over in India : Carrefour and Wal-MArt. Which makes imports and sales of veggies, you name it, easy, as the Oligarch supply chain can work full blast. I see this as a move by Western Oligarchs saying to Indian Oligarchs : you scratch my back, we scratch yours, and we all make money and we all protect certain national oligarchies on both sides. Only the poor consumer gets shafted, as always.
you got it Falak. Nail on the head.
There is a lot of Kabuki going on right now, but it will pass and the systems/M&A stuff is just waiting. They have all come with Cash and Carry and other means already.
NAsty stuff.
ORI
'Does oil have the potential to break control and go to real value? '
With global ZIRP and 'unconventional' monetary policy how does one find the real value of anything? Isn't this why many are holders of PMs?
War or inflation finally spilling over. My guess? Both.
Sure feels that way eh? See my response to CPL below.
i can literally SEE the noose tightening.
ORI
That is what the collapse in the spread implies. Coupled with the beating war drums and a rather muted response from China and Russia (who are fine with letting the western world destroy itself), the implication is yes. Time for all the talking heads on CNBC to start saying otherwise in 3...2...1...
How can there be an imported oil shortage in the US while the supply of dollars is unlimited?
Are those pesky Persians whining about accepting rapidly devaluing dollars for their oil?
Doesn't Iran know the US is in favor of a 'strong dollar policy'? ...any day Ben will be jacking interest rates back up to the historic norm.
Well, demand sure as hell isn't the problem:
http://articles.philly.com/2011-12-02/news/30467553_1_refinery-workers-s...
I'm pretty sure there are countries besides America who use oil, and have an increasing demand it ;)
Global oil demand is still around 87 million barrels per day (mb/d)
-273...VERY TRUE. Most of the gain in refining has taken place in the Gulf States. Older plants such as the one that just closed down in Philly...are landlocked and can't expand. Large refineries can produce oil products cheaper than smaller ones.
That being said, the rest of the world is picking up oil demand. This is from westexas on THEOILDRUM:
Saudi Arabia and Russia combined accounted for about one-third of Global Net Exports of oil (GNE) in 2005. Here are the numbers for recent Saudi and Russian net oil exports (BP, total petroleum liquids):
Saudi Arabia & Russia respectively, mbpd:
2005: 9.1 & 6.8
2006: 8.8 & 6.9
2007: 8.3 & 7.1
2008: 8.5 & 6.9
2009: 7.3 & 7.1
2010: 7.2 & 7.1
----------------------------------------------------
Here we can see that the top two oil exporters have declined from 15.9 mbd global net exports in 2005 to only 14.3 mbd in 2010. All the oil exporters are increasing their own domestic consumption on top of declining production. This is a double-whammy.
Unfortunately GROWTH IS OVER. Any politician who says we need to grow our economy out of this mess... is totally oblivious.
Yea exactly, if they sat down and watched that recent Chris Martenson presentation posted here at one of their summits they might actually finally realise that NOTHING conventional (or at all) will work to restart growth and plan accordingly. Surprised they are so ignorant actually, it's not hard to grasp the state of things once you look at the supply/demand data, and realise oil discoveries peaked over 40 years ago. Even the official I.E.A reports are finally painting a relatively clear picture of how tight supply is/will get.
Production of conventional crude oil – the largest single component of oil supply – remains at current
levels before declining slightly to around 68 mb/d by 2035. To compensate for declining
crude oil production at existing fields, 47 mb/d of gross capacity additions are required,
twice the current total oil production of all OPEC countries in the Middle East.
"if they sat down and watched that recent Chris Martenson presentation posted here at one of their summits they might actually finally realise that NOTHING conventional (or at all) will work to restart growth and plan accordingly"
.....................................
Chris Martenson and Kyle Bass both have it right. We're looking at growth of 1.5% gdp (maybe) as far as we can see ahead when 2.5% gdp growth is needed to stabilize the workforce at whatever level it happens to be. Muddle through is a best case scenario unless the Martians help us out with some new free energy source.
There is no doubt in my mind that we will see wide spread social unrest. Governments have made a lot of promises that they will be unable to deliver on. Perhaps the FEMA camps are their 'plan accordingly' solution?
Pay particular attention to minutes 41 - 44...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V3kpKzd-Yw
-273... I like Chris, but those figures are pretty optomistic even in my book of facts. Conventional Crude actually falls to approx 40-42 million barrels a day by 2035 (graph here: http://www.cleanbreak.ca/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/oilforecast.png)
Then we have the work by Jeffrey Brown and the Land Export model showing a decline of AVAILABLE NET EXPORTS by 2020:
(0.1% annual decline rate) = http://i1095.photobucket.com/albums/i475/westexas/Slide10-1.jpg
(1.0% annual decline rate) = http://i1095.photobucket.com/albums/i475/westexas/Slide11.jpg
If you take a look at those two graphs you will see that we are really SCREWED by 2020 and not 2035. If the 33 exporting oil countries suffer a 1.0% annual decline rate, Available Net Exports (minus China-India) will only be a pathetic 16 million barrels a day in 2020, compared to 35 million barrels a day in 2010.
SEE... I make Chris Martenson look like a PIKER...
It got much worse this weekend. A huge projected supply isn't coming on time:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/8530144/Shell-shuts-Caspian-office-50bn-Kashagan-project-on-ice.html
I agree it will be worse, according to my own research of depletion rates, new finds and growing internal demand of oil producers. both IEA and EIA have been consistently downgrading their expectations with each passing report, was just pointing out that even THEY are now admitting we need to find 2 new middle easts to offset depletion, in a relatively short space of time, which is obviously not going to happen, whatever the timescale.
Those are some scary charts man. Of course what is important is the amount of oil available to export, not just produce and those charts dont look good for those who need to import, which is most people.
"If Iranian exports were suspended that would be very significant as the market is tight already" - Does anyone besides me hear the Chinese laughing?
Every time the price of oil goes up Exxon's profits double.
it won't go up by that much. Maybe to 250$ a barrel. We can handle this.
Soooo...bullish, yes?
Exxon is a sovereign nation.
Oil kills economies.
Water scarcity kills Civilizations. That is the Black Swan that everyone is looking for.
FIRE UP ALL THE COLD FUSION REACTORS SCOTTY!!
Scotty?!....
HELLO!!!??
Anybody?!!
Working on it. Refining the nuclear fuel for these babies is not trivial and requires a significant capital and energy cost up front. We'll worry about dealing with the waste later.
In the mean time you might want to start feeding all your biodegradable waste to a methane digester. Very easy to modify a 90's style fuel injector to run on methane or hydrogen gas. Both gases are major products of anaerobic fermentation of your typical waste products. The best part is your can simply cut out the catalytic convertor in your exhaust system and sell it for a few grand.
Or buy a bicycle.
Build one yourself. No welding:
N55 Trike and trailer
http://www.n55.dk/MANUALS/SPACEFRAMEVEHICLES/spaceframevehicles.html
N55 SPACEFRAME VEHICLES - YouTube - http://bit.ly/ujmYIX
N55 SPACEFRAME VEHICLES - YouTube - http://bit.ly/s6AhEe
Time for another margin hike.
Good. The higher the better because all of the bullshit, lies and fraud will be over that much sooner the higher gas goes. I almost spit my coffee on the floor at the grocery store this weekend when I saw how much groceries have risen in the past 2-3 weeks since I went. I honestly don't know why Americans aren't flooding onto the Capitol steps to demand an end to this bullshit. Paychecks stagnant, epic UE regardless of Goebbels-ized stats, and necessities rising 5% a month are starting to really grate my fucking nerves here and I am doing much better than many others out there. Yet not a peep from the lamestream media...
You won't hear peeps from anyone, just gunshots. People may be suffering in silence but they won't starve quietly.
Most people are narcissitic self entitled. They still think that the gubbermint is looking out for them and will resolve it.
90% of the sheeple I talk to, are clueless. Info has to be spoonfed to them via the MSM. My inlaws come over and I don't talk to thme anymore. I give up on all the morons. Pity that my doom of truth spoil their day. Fuck em.
Actaully there was a study out recently that found when confronted with complicated issues, most people take the "Ignorance is Bliss" approach and rationalize that the governement will take care of it...
I'll root around for the link...
I have a slightly similar experience. I have several family members I'm close with who are well aware of the current problems even if they don't grasp the nuances. But at the end of a good conversation, when we've finally detailed the fundamentals of why things are spinning out of control, and pondered the result of no more SNAP and bouncing gubbermint checks, they simply blank out.
"But things won't get that bad."
"But we'll get through this. We got through the Great Depression."
Some have made just-in-case preps: couple cans of food, extra box of shells or two. But none are prepared to go for even two weeks of real disruptions. I've included these few in my own preps as far as antibiotics and some food, but I have to think about my own family first and foremost. Believe me, there are others that are going to hear, "You always brushed me off when I warned you. I can't risk my family's survival for yours."
>>>I almost spit my coffee on the floor at the grocery store this weekend when I saw how much groceries have risen in the past 2-3 weeks since I went<<<
I thought it was just me. I had the same WTF? moment myself. I assumed it was because I hadn't been paying attention...and I always pay attention.
Same here. Significant increases over the last month or two.
i just spent a hundred bucks on one bag of groceries yesterday. it was a heavy bag, but god damn.
The price of iPads hasn't gone up. Or houses.
what does that have to do with the price of tea in china?
This is what:
"Witness last week's visit to Queens, New York, by New York Fed President William Dudley, who got a street-corner education in the cost of living.
Keep in mind the Fed doesn't think food and gas prices matter to its policy calculations because they aren't part of "core" inflation.
So Mr. Dudley tried to explain that other prices are falling. "Today you can buy an iPad 2 that costs the same as an iPad 1 that is twice as powerful," he said.
Reuters reports that this "prompted guffaws and widespread murmuring from the audience," with someone quipping, "I can't eat an iPad." Another attendee asked, "When was the last time, sir, that you went grocery shopping?""
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870489360457619911345271927...
Because unemployment went down with their creative math they can ramp this oil sucka higher
At what point do you start fading the oil price surge? $150??
Anyone else notice that the price of gas seems low in their area, especially relative to oil? I know we're having a warmer than normal winter where I am at, so consumption for heating is down, but pump prices have dropped even further today here.
It was $3.13 a gallon last Wednesday where I live. It is 3.33 this morning. Nothing like a 6% jump in less than a week.
At least your area is reflecting reality with raising the price today. My area fell, and I am at a loss. They will probably go up 10% here tomorrow.
I was wondering what was going on to be at 3.13 last week. I actually bothered to fill up both tanks.
A lot of people seem to have noticed in my area. Is it the warm weather?
Don't make a big deal out of this. GM will save us, just buy a Chevy Volt. Oh wait, they are buying them back. Never mind. I will get back to you on what to do.
Because the US population, as a whole, is fucking stupid?
If Milk goes up $0.03, it has more of an impact on overall necessity commodities and the price of groceries for the average US consumer. Yet no one cares, especially when they are fed BS UE numbers for the media, on top of gasoline's price being down $0.09 the last 2 weeks (what a deal!).
Yet when NetFlix goes up $5, people are cancelling their accounts, creating protest web pages, and occupying the streets.
it's the boiling frog thing
It's the intentional "education" of people so that they have a fucked up value system and remain controllable. Power and control is what this is all about, period.
santa claus rally
YEAH! SANTA IS LOADING UP!
http://www.xoxobook.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/93.jpg
This just in: SANTA TO SLOW TOY DELIVERY DUE TO FUEL COST INCREASES
Ultima Thule (North Pole)
A discouraged Santa is busy eeding his reindeer on a cold late-fall morning. The portly Santa repeatedly hitches up his red velvet trousers as he shovel's hay to the waiting animals.
"Here you go Rudolph... good morning Blitzen, heres your breakfast..." Santa affectionately rubs a reindeer's nose, (is it Prancer?) then he grouses, "my feed costs have gone up 150 % this year. You realize of course, that I can't actually grow any food here at the North Pole."
"Hay, grain, even tundra moss from the Siberia- it all has to be flown here by helicopter," says Santa. "It used to be that the isolation of the North Pole was a benefit- it allowed me to employ elves and dwarves without having to comply with various government regulations, but the irony is that between globalisation and spiking fuel costs, the North Pole is not the best location any more. I'm thinking about relocating to Vietnam."
This year, I think I'll have to delay my delivery schedule. Presents can't all be delivered globally in a 12 hour period any more. I used to depend on the cookie and milk subsidy, but rising food costs (due to rising fuel costs) have caused the CMI (cookie and milk index) to drop 30% since the 2008 crisis began. I am afriad I'll have to go to a three day delivery system, and eventually, back to a '12 days of Christmas', staggerred delivery system, like I had 300 years ago."
Yeah, those round trips to china for those leaded plastic toys must cost him dearly....
""Consumers just don't have faith in tomorrow," said Pietro Giordano, secretary general of Rome-based consumer group Adiconsum. Sales over the Christmas period may decline as much as 15 percent from a year ago, the biggest drop since World War II, Giordano said in a telephone interview.
Many Italians will spend their "tredicesima," a December bonus equivalent to a 13th month's salary, to pay bills rather than buy many gifts, he said."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/12/05/bloomberg_ar...
Can someone explain why oil prices and what you actually pay at the pump have seemingly disconnected? There's a good historical chart at http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=24 (click "Show Crude Oil Price" at the bottom to see the comparison). I know it's not lockstep, but there's been a big divergence over the last few months.
Two factors, one is that "show oil price" refers to WTI and not Brent, the spread there widened and is now closing. The second is that the price of oil is driven by diesel demand, not gasoline demand....
FWIW, weeks ago I heard on BBC? that gasoline prices in the US would rise this winter as refiners concentrate on supplying diesel to South America. That was it. No explanation or analysis.
At least there are a few more cars off the road.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-05/eight-ferraris-crash-at-gatheri...
Best quote of the year.
FLASH surge on ICE platform gasoil /brent crack jumps over $1.00 in seconds and back down again OUCH . Bring out your dead !
Wasn't paying attention, didn't realize the crack spread collapsed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CRK321M1:IND
the only crack spread i heard of, was when janet napolitano bent over, and timmy g. fell out!
Har-har-har-harggarg-gaugmphaggghh..!
Peak oil bitchez!
the USA is now exporting refined products (after 62 years) -
think about that
demand destruction in play - no job - no juice - pretty fucking simple math - and because oil is fungible and JP MOrgan gives two shits about you...
the USA and western europe get involuntarily powered down (read SLAMMED) and asia/india get the surplus
americans will be levelized...hope ya'll like living on $5 a day -
This has been the end game all along. The owners want the world to work for Chinese wages, period. So it is written, so it shall be. Happy holidays!
Income equalization... I thought Marx was dead, but he just moved to Fairfax Couty, with homes in Aspen, Boca, and la Jolla.
Why not exacerbate the economic effects of Peak Oil with all sorts of UN regulations, global warming bullshit (who turned the sun off, fer fuck's sake???), and rampant bloodsucking banker depredations?
Peak Agenda 21, bitchez.
As for the Asians, sure, go ahead and grab the straw- I was slurping at the bottom of the cup ayway!
OK, so Iran is warning us that an oil embargo is gonna double oil and hurt economic growth????
Now I know 'Peak Oil" belongs in the same dust-bin as Global Warming
Mortimer Zuckerman (ignorant to the real facts), the chairman and editor in chief of U.S. News & World Report, announced on November 25, 2011 that America's energy problems are over thanks to the shale gas revolution. He delivered the good news in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal called "How American Can Escape the Energy Trap".
This article was taken apart by the fellas at the OILDRUM....which you can find at the link below:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8677
People who have no clue about the ENERGY INDUSTRY should keep their fingers typing on other more pathetic subjects in business like the STRENGTH OF THE DOLLAR or what a GREAT JOB BEN BERNANKE is doing. (sarcasm).
Not only is PEAK OIL here...but the 33 exporting nations are sucking up more of their own production every year as they grow their own economies. Then of course we have the FALLING EROI which is the real reason we are in this mess and not the MONEY PRINTING.
It took a great many generations for the simple folk to realize the EARTH WAS NOT FLAT and the SUN WAS THE CENTER OF THE UNIVERSE. IT will take only a few more years for the majority of the humans on the planet to learn about PEAK OIL.
thanks for writing these comments man, saves me the time having to write the same.
Yep - been a member of TOD since 2005...
Thanks - saves me the time to respond to asshats as well.
Peak oil is being defined by economic collapse.
Have a nice kill off bitchez.
WTF? iran is the 4th largest oil exporter in the world, after (in order, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAR) January 2011 stats have the Iranians exporting 2.4 m bbls/day.
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?c=ir&v=95
(Why can't I get links to come up blue like everybody else? What's wrong with ME???)
That's 3% of total daily global needs. but somewhere in the neighborhood of 15% of world oil needs move through the straits of Hormuz. The Iranians don't even have to close the straits, they just have to threaten such a closure, and oil futures will go fucking ballistic. $250 a barrel? That's just the begining. The Iranians don't need nuclear weapons, they already have the world by the throat, literally. We should put Iranian schemes to get a Nuke in the same dust-bin as 9/11 caused by Al Quaeda, Obama being what/who he says he is and Iraqi yellowcake from Niger.
Don't matter in the US until wholesale gasoline passes $3.00/gallon. Still down at $2.65. But....10-15% isn't real far to go in commodities. Back in the headlines then, and fast.
who needs the democrats to raise taxes when we have oil...............
Oil could double and Americans would just deal with it. They would still drive and spend three times as much to save a little. Most people would borrow more, which plays right into Bernanke's hand, he's trying to get more borrowing and debt.
oil at that cost would break the trucking industry.
Good. long haul trucking is ridiculous. freight trains move ten times as much for the same energy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_efficiency_in_transportation#US_Freight_transportation
Trucks really should only be for the short hop from rail to destination. Before that happens, we'll likely see decline in overnight air deliveries too, which uses 30 times as much energy per ton as freight trains.
dont worry everythings under control
.
call my friend ginger white, she works for the CIA
Good ol' Leon had to go over to Israel, and humor the bat-shit crazy motherfuckers in charge of the asylum, so that they would at least simmer down a little.
"No, Bibi, I don't think you're crazy... of course not. Why would I think that?"
Of course the US is Israel's perpetual and uncritical enabler- er I mean ally. Of COURSE we won't take any options, even suicidal ones off the table... because suicidal ideation is the new normal- of COURSE!
I mean, I recognize that everyone thinks some sort of irrational attachment to specific real estate is a normal human desire! Please, get up off the floor...stop thrashing about, please! Netanyahu, you're making yourself turn blue! Normally I find tantrums off-putting, but when the entitled sumbitch has a nuclear weapon, and by extension the ability to close the Straits of Hormuz, I try to understand him a tiny bit...
Would you like a lollipop? There, there... that's better. Of course ytou're not crazy. Let's talk a little bit more..."
Submitted without any additional commentary...
Gasoline: The new big U.S. exporthttp://money.cnn.com/2011/12/05/news/economy/gasoline_export/index.htm?h...
Very quietly, this is what has happened this weekend:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/8530144/Shell-shuts-Caspian-office-50bn-Kashagan-project-on-ice.html
RDS has stopped work at Kashagan. Kashagan is the Holy Grail of IEA out year projections of supply.
It's not going to be there.
who cares I dont even have a car...!
Peak Cheap Oil....BITCHEZ !!!!
Well...let me rephrase....
PEAK CHEAP LIVING AND EXPONENTIAL GROWTH....BITCHEZ !!!!!