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Oil Tumbles On First Sign Of Risk Offness

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/19/2011 14:37 -0400

We have gotten to the point when the nanosecond there is even a whiff of "risk off", everyone hits the Sell button at the same time. Observe Crude. And, yes, volume was involved.

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Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:41 | 1789828 dukeland

Pun intended... its on a slippery slope

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 23:28 | 1791421 trav7777

yeah, Tyler, ZOMG, two whole fuckin bucks.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 01:01 | 1791607 Harlequin001

Isn't it stunning how everyone manages to hit the sell button at the same time...

You could be forgiven for thinking that the markets were moved by one or two players couldn't you?

Now where is that Regulator again...

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:42 | 1789829 bob_dabolina

Oil?

Uhhh...look at Dr. Copper, looks like he needs a myocardiogram

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:44 | 1789844 reload

he has lead the way all day - from european open.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:42 | 1790250 LongBalls

Accumulate oil boys and girls. We will got to war with Iran before the Fed's let the economy roll over. Ever here of a country that launched a massive war right after a currency or credit collapse? No....we will be ALL in to protect the "petro dollar" first. If Iran gets a nuke they can trade thier oil reserves for say....hmmmmm gold with China? Such a trade would mark the end of our ability to print to infinity!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 17:27 | 1790396 AldousHuxley

don't forget russia. they gave Iran the nuke tech.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 23:46 | 1791453 fourchan

actually the post nazi german companys supplyed the centerfuge tech

to the muslems to complete the final solution against the jews. see "stealing the fire."

http://www.answers.com/topic/stealing-the-fire

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 19:03 | 1790720 Gene8696

I can see that happening.. And agree we will go to war before waving a white flag. If that was to happen, it would be some time out.. Min 1-2 years, after elections. Although Iran has a history of poking the US during elections.

Goverment Oil reserve numbers is total horse shit... WTI's spread is a better indicator, for me. There is plenty of oil on the market, it should break below 75 again. The cost to move that oil to a market that pays near Brent prices is less than $15. Consumption is down, import is down, and our "new" production,which is increasing.. costs $30-60 to get out the ground.

On the other hand you have the fertile crescent bunch.. They need oil to be north of $100 Brent, to pay for all the shit they bought on credit. Have you been to Dubai latey? I have, and you can believe they have there own debt problems... the whole region.

The mad-hatter in me also questions how the government controls oil prices as well.. Lots of tax revenues from oil and gas..

I think we will see 75 again if we can keep oil attached to S&P.. But it doesnt take a mushroom cloud in the east to prove me wrong.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:44 | 1789830 GeneMarchbanks

Panicky markets. I don't get it? Where's all the uncertainty? Greece will default, France will be downgraded, Germany will return the Deutschmark.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:02 | 1789917 slewie the pi-rat

they say it's for horses
and not for men
they say i'll kill me
but they won't say when

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:07 | 1789937 FubarNation

I still have a few Deutschmarks floating around. Who would have thought they would be of use again?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:31 | 1789989 Long-John-Silver

The new Deutschmarks will be completely different from the vintage fiat you now hold. It will remain in it's current currency status of worthlessness.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:20 | 1790204 johny2

They won't. but there is a way to get some of the new deutschmarks at large discount. And it carries almost no risk. While there is a reason why thr real estate in berlin is cheaper than anywhere in europe ( laws ), if the germany gets its own currency, this real estate is suddenly going to become some of the most expensive in europe. And if the euro survives, you still are buying relatively cheap, and will be getting a reasonable return. Just an idea for those that want to diversify.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:19 | 1789978 Long-John-Silver

Anyone still trading in today’s markets are too stupid to know that. They still have faith in Keynesian economics.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:00 | 1790146 JW n FL

Look.. I have Love for ya man.. so dont go getting all idiot on me here..

Keynesian is NOT! the Problem any more than Austrian is the answer..

The Problem is Corruption, the men driving are drunk on power and high on printer ink.

it would not matter would theory we used, the Corrupt men counting the money inside the FED.. the Share Holders of the Federal Reserve Bank.. they are the problem.

I would not lie to you Bro, not about this shit any way.. if the last cookie was missing, I may blame the dog.. but I am an ubber fat guy.. you cant blame a fat guy for taking the last cookie!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:38 | 1790063 shazbotz

Admitting defeat before stealing every penny from the citizens is a very hard thing indeed, for the Kleptocrats to do...

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:40 | 1790073 TheSilverJournal

Germany won't return to the Deutschmark until the Euro hyperinflates away. Centralizing fiat worked when going from the Deutschmark to the Euro, but decentralizing fiat going from the Euro to the Deutschmark won't work. The only way to make it work is to back it by something and then their governments would lose control over the printing presses. Bottom line..the governments won't give up control of the printing presses until it's meaningless to print. The dollar is fundamentally in much worse shape than the Euro because the dollar will hyperinflate sooner.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:22 | 1790206 AbelCatalyst

Germany leaving the Euro will be the catalyst behind Euro hyperinflating away... Then Germany wakes up with no debt, whihc was also inflated away!! Go Germany!! Bye-bye Euro!!!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:27 | 1790222 TheSilverJournal

You're missing one little problem. How does Germany then make a new money? It can't do it without drastically reducing the size of it's government..so it won't.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:33 | 1790234 AbelCatalyst

Every country is going to have to live within it's means at some point... Not sure when or how much suffering will be required before we all wake up, but in the end the world will be a happier, healthier, less corrupt place... Before that happens we're going to all be eating a giant slice of humble pie!!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 17:50 | 1790501 TheSilverJournal

The West will be eating humble pie while the East will actually be able to breathe a sigh of relief. Countries again will be able to consume what they produce..the way it should be.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:34 | 1790236 kito

you will never see the euro hyperinflate away. NEVER. you will not see the dollar hyperinflate away. as much as everyone maligns the central bankers intelligence, they are playing it pretty shrewd. they WILL NOT RISK THE END OF FIAT by destroying the currencies. they will let sovereigns fall before they destroy what keeps them reigning. they would rather have destruction come via deflation, which keeps fiat afloat, and their jobs intact, than destruction through hyperinflation, which they would lose everything. and you can kiss gold and silver goodbye. it will be utterly obliterated along with everything except physical cash.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 18:07 | 1790560 TheSilverJournal

In order to never allow depositors to lose their money, they must print endless streams of fiat.

What you're saying is that they will allow depositors to lose their money, which is what should happen and what must happen in order to save the USD and avoid hyperinflation. I just don't see them doing an about face like that and suddenly start doing the right thing. There's no signs that the Fed is suddenly going to raise interest rates, stop backing mortgages, stop backing the FDIC, stop loans to banks and countries, and stop facilitating the growth of government. I see all of the signs in the exact opposite direction. Hell, Bernanke just through another mandate in the other day to "support the banking system". It sounded to me like it is the start of an excuse to ignore the 2% inflation target. After all of these years of low rates and bailouts, do you really think Bernanke will say, "Oh, I was wrong, we need to to the exact opposite of what I was saying all along."? Bernanke won't say that. He won't throw his life's work under the bus like that even if it means the destruction of the world.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 21:02 | 1791063 Dugald

The problem with you guys is you always assassinate the wrong people!!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 23:55 | 1791478 trav7777

the central banks control jackshit. the fiat confetti they push is a voluntary thing. When it no longer benefits the government to go along with it, they will end the charade.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:53 | 1790282 arizona11912

The Germans couldnt go back to the Deutshmark if they wanted to. They'd be forced to print just like everyone else to remain competitive. I'm selling pre-order Euro bonds.....get'em while they're hot. Euro bonds will be soon be the catch phrase here on ZH.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:45 | 1789833 kahunabear

Once in a while, if you ignore all the fluff, there is a nugget on CNBS. Some steel guy just said steel demand has taken a huge plunge in the last 60 days. Interesting.

The bubbleheads are ignoring that these "good" earnings were mostly before they recent plunge in the worldwide economy.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:46 | 1789850 buzzsaw99

That is bullish for CLF right?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:52 | 1790122 Amish Hacker

Right. Down 40% in two months, down 7% today. MACD and RSI rolling over. Back up the truck.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:06 | 1789932 Frank N. Beans

in the LA Times last week there was an article about how there were so few ships coming in to the LA ports to offload their China crap for the holidays as compared to last year. I think that's a pretty definitive indicator of the slowdown also.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:35 | 1790241 AbelCatalyst

I read that article too! The slow down was significant... People have no idea the kind of storm that is brewing on the horizon... 2008 is going to look like a summer shower compared to what's coming...

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:42 | 1789835 Dumpster Fire

Deflation bitchezz

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:04 | 1789926 s2man

Not if TPTB can do anything about it. The banks NEED inflation to keep the asset values higher than the loans they have given on them (see housing strategic defaults). And you know who the banks friend is, the guy with the printing press.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:19 | 1789980 Jack Napier

You're both right. Deflation now. QE3 when there's blood in the streets to prop up the bond bubble and inflate asset prices. PM's to the moon. The paper bon fire will be brutal.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:23 | 1789994 afdestruction

Napier nailed it^^^^ Deflation if it happens at all (could go eithe way right now) will only be intermediate term

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:39 | 1790069 Quadlet

QE3 when EURUSD=1.24

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:50 | 1790115 css1971

Yeah... But don't try shorting it.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:13 | 1790186 TheSilverJournal

The Fed is lying to us, QE3 is happening now. With keeping the very short end at 0%, how can you sell the short end to buy the long end..so..the Fed must be doing more QE.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:25 | 1790218 LongBalls

Ding, ding, ding...... Give this guy some fiat.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 22:57 | 1791345 DaveyJones

part of hyperinflation is everyone crowding up on the short end. That's what happened in Germany a long time ago. No one wanted to hold their stuff. It deflates the long stuff like houses and beats the crap out of the essentials. The feds knows no one is interested in a long bet on US

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:44 | 1789837 Smiddywesson

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:43 | 1789838 buzzsaw99

so sad, and after all the work speculators did to drive up the price for selfish gain.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:18 | 1789976 NumberNone

We need a new rumor...where's the new rumor dammit!!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:35 | 1790052 Long-John-Silver

The Rumour Mill is working on it.

http://youtu.be/Wk2VYwCIcZE

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 20:05 | 1790922 Hephasteus

Where's the tube with blue oil/coolant spraying on the bit. That guy must love buying tools.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:51 | 1790116 css1971

What kind would Sir like? One can choose from the menu.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:19 | 1790201 Libertarians fo...

Bloomberg is reporting that someone has turned the Perpetual Growth Machine back on.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:43 | 1789839 Racer

Because these idiots keep trying to stabilise a fundamentally unstable sinking ship they are creating even greater waves of volatility that will eventually sink it

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:44 | 1789841 sheeple2012

Bullish for stox in Cramerica!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:45 | 1789846 SheepDog-One

Skittish Coombs....very skittish.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:47 | 1789853 buzzsaw99

you probably shouldn't tell 'em what happened to the last crew on the mercantile exchange. lulz

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:48 | 1789860 SheepDog-One

LOL

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:49 | 1789864 Dr. Engali

You made three mistakes. First, you took the job. Second, you came light. A four man crew for me? Fucking insulting. But the worst mistake you made... empty gun rack.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:52 | 1789874 marcusfenix

lol...a crash always precedes their coming

convert now...or fall forever

great movie

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:53 | 1789880 jdelano

Awesome. Respect + 100. When is the damn sequel coming out?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:57 | 1789898 caerus

death by teacup

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:26 | 1790219 buzzsaw99

texas teacup?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:46 | 1789849 wang (not verified)

the Gold miners are in freefall

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:06 | 1789934 s2man

yay. penny stocks.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:08 | 1789943 Belarus

I wonder if Eric Sprott is sleeping well now?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:29 | 1790024 Long-John-Silver

When the host countries nationalize them they will be worthless.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:48 | 1789859 monopoly

Good day to work in the garden.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:50 | 1789866 adr

watch in fifteen minutes when the 3:00 FT rumor du jour hits. Crude could stage a complete reversal or break its neck and plummet to the ground. Today we just don't know.

Look at the chart early this morning. I have whiplash.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:50 | 1789867 Quadlet

Margin hike.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:53 | 1789883 mayhem_korner

Do you have a reference, or are you speculating?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:06 | 1789931 Quadlet

Speculating

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:32 | 1790036 Quadlet

It's called frontrunning for a reason

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:50 | 1789868 tekhneek

Let me guess: Gas goes up now right?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:51 | 1789869 Oh regional Indian

Silver took it on the chin too. Down a buck.

And let me eat a little crow....no black moanday/tuesday. Perhaps prognostication is best left alone...

It is interesting, here in India, price at the pump is immune to global price swings. When it was $30 a barrel, we awere at X. When it was $140 a barrel, we were at 1.2 X, now, we are at 3X and climbing.

The set up of global commodity arbitrage is really set up to benefit very few parties.

ORI

OWS Flash De-mob

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:19 | 1790199 Ruffcut

Oil is an important key within the clusterfuck.

ORI guy, when you ate some crow, did it taste like chicken? No black anything yet. Can't predict shit until you are of an expert of criminal minds.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:52 | 1789873 eBuddha

a bunch of drunken sailors, running from one side of a capsizing boat to the other.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:25 | 1790001 Long-John-Silver

as ordered by the Captain. The deck chairs must be rearranged just right.......

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:00 | 1790147 Dr. Richard Head

Why isn't the band still playing?!?!?! Someone strike up the band.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:53 | 1789876 mayhem_korner

The selloff isn't the phenomenon. It's the cycle after cycle of hopium. Market's down 3 TDs in the fourth quarter but jumps a percent or so everytime Europe declares a first down (offset by holding, every time).

The game should be simple now: they print a gazillion bux and equities soar in an inflation-fest, or the crushing weight of over-indebtedness brings everything down to near zero. (Or maybe that's the sequence).

The rest of this is just noise to keep writers at CNBC busy concocting 3-5 conflicting headlines per diem.

That is all.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:07 | 1789935 Tuco Benedicto ...

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

I started to throw a flag for "unnecessary roughness" but determined that yours was a clean hit. Good job!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:56 | 1789893 firstdivision

Woohoo! $200 oil, goodbye!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:01 | 1789915 Gene8696

S&P as well... Better than a cup of coffee, as I was drifting off. Red has become my favorite color. Now if we can just keep the fertile crescent quiet for another week, I can get all lubed-up.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:02 | 1789919 Belarus

Yup, covered all longs before big hit as the EUR/USD started to plunge. Next week, the market is going to tank at least 10%.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:03 | 1789922 The Heart

Well, that is a good thing right?

Is it not true that when the oil prices go up, this has been a sign of some sort of eminent event, or another false declaration of war on another innocent country with too many resources?

Maybe the crashing is because people are waking up fast thanks to videos that are going viral like this one. The judge tells it like it is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsiC7dRVpnw

Kinda hard to start another war when everyone knows who and why they are being falsely started. Then again, looks like they are still trying something.

US forces 'massing on Afghanistan-Pakistan border'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/8834040/US-fo...

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:17 | 1789973 junkyardjack

Sorry that was me, I was trying to get a pop corn crumb that fell between my keys. Ignore that, rally on

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:23 | 1789992 RichardENixon

Finally, a reasonable explanation.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:18 | 1789975 Magnix

Cheaper gas price for eveybody?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:28 | 1790013 Long-John-Silver

Oil prices are falling faster than Gold and Silver. I'm still ahead.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:44 | 1790086 junkyardjack

Haha like gas prices go down. I needed a good laugh, silly consumer you are always at the bottom of the totem

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:20 | 1789987 Mr_Wonderful

Hearing some rumors that a really big rumor is imminent ...

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:34 | 1790048 campag

can we all get real oil is trading down $2 on the day -no big deal. Brent is still $11- higher than 15 days ago. Cant get too excited about a collapse yet. Contract expiry on WTI COULD BE A REASON.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:03 | 1790151 Gene8696

You mean 7 days ago... And it could be there by Friday again.

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=commoditiesqkchart&symbol=NYM^BZ\Z11

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:06 | 1790166 Mike2756

As a percentage, wti is getting crushed on an inventory drop. Guess the refiners didn't want to catch a falling knife. Stil waiting for Brent to come back down to reality, lol.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:37 | 1790059 Bam_Man

Price discovery, bitchezzz.

Even in these manipulated, hyper-leveraged ponzi-casinos masqueradeing as "markets", price discovery still occasionally takes place. Albeit out-of-the-blue in (nano-) seconds.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:44 | 1790092 pragmatic hobo

btw ... what happened to Leo?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 17:03 | 1790160 fuu

Threw a tantrum and left months ago.

About halfway down this post: http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/08/one-flew-over-cuckoos-nest.html

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:28 | 1790223 ReallySparky

Don't you know? He is installing Solar Panels.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:57 | 1790134 bernorange

Risk on - risk off - risk on - risk off. /Mr. Miyagi

www.pmbug.com

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:44 | 1790253 Rollerball

E-cat: cold fusion electrolysis burns water and sh*ts copper

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2QszwKOam4

Alchemy bitches

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 17:04 | 1790323 topcallingtroll

The only growth is third world growth, and brazil is undervalued compared to its peers.

Buy EWZ. It may drop to 50. But anywhere in the fifties is a good entry point. Dollar cost average over the next ten years.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 17:59 | 1790529 max2205

God it sure felt like a down 3-4%. I was shocked that Xle xlf were only down less than 1%. Shocked!?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 18:24 | 1790617 ivars

Silver price 2011-2017 prediction chart:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=680#p34623

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 19:28 | 1790794 Dr. Engali

Transitory.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 20:20 | 1790956 colfaxcap

Hmmmm. i have a feeling that the Peak Oil Garbage pitched here is not working out and i also have the same feeling the gold trade going to 3000 is going to end up the same way. Peak oil to 300/barrell?? LMAO. where are they today? on the gold to 3,000 trade? Yawn

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 21:24 | 1791103 msmith

Oil is likely headed much lower as it could not break through resistance. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, and AUDJPY is telling a risk off USD bullish story. http://bit.ly/oTmnWa

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 03:45 | 1791745 whirlybird rules

watch EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, Nymex Crude, SPX - same pulse! when USD starts to get frothy vs EUR, common event is that oil rallies -out of no where! And then, euro rallies right along with it! If one's mission to <support the euro/trash the dollar> or <trash the dollar/support the euro>... If you were a sovereign with such an agenda, you may as well get something for your trouble, soooo- you buy oil! Long oil, long term under $100 is a good deal.

Oil Tumbles On First Sign Of Risk Offness

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