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Oil Tumbles On First Sign Of Risk Offness

Tyler Durden's picture





 

We have gotten to the point when the nanosecond there is even a whiff of "risk off", everyone hits the Sell button at the same time. Observe Crude. And, yes, volume was involved.

 


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Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:41 | Link to Comment dukeland
dukeland's picture

Pun intended... its on a slippery slope

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 23:28 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

yeah, Tyler, ZOMG, two whole fuckin bucks.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 01:01 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Isn't it stunning how everyone manages to hit the sell button at the same time...

You could be forgiven for thinking that the markets were moved by one or two players couldn't you?

Now where is that Regulator again...

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:42 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Oil?

Uhhh...look at Dr. Copper, looks like he needs a myocardiogram

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:44 | Link to Comment reload
reload's picture

he has lead the way all day - from european open.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:42 | Link to Comment LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Accumulate oil boys and girls. We will got to war with Iran before the Fed's let the economy roll over. Ever here of a country that launched a massive war right after a currency or credit collapse? No....we will be ALL in to protect the "petro dollar" first. If Iran gets a nuke they can trade thier oil reserves for say....hmmmmm gold with China? Such a trade would mark the end of our ability to print to infinity!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 17:27 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

don't forget russia. they gave Iran the nuke tech.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 23:46 | Link to Comment fourchan
fourchan's picture

actually the post nazi german companys supplyed the centerfuge tech

to the muslems to complete the final solution against the jews. see "stealing the fire."

 

http://www.answers.com/topic/stealing-the-fire

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 19:03 | Link to Comment Gene8696
Gene8696's picture

I can see that happening.. And agree we will go to war before waving a white flag. If that was to happen, it would be some time out.. Min 1-2 years, after elections. Although Iran has a history of poking the US during elections.

Goverment Oil reserve numbers is total horse shit... WTI's spread is a better indicator, for me. There is plenty of oil on the market, it should break below 75 again. The cost to move that oil to a market that pays near Brent prices is less than $15. Consumption is down, import is down, and our "new" production,which is increasing.. costs $30-60 to get out the ground.

On the other hand you have the fertile crescent bunch.. They need oil to be north of $100 Brent, to pay for all the shit they bought on credit. Have you been to Dubai latey? I have, and you can believe they have there own debt problems... the whole region.

The mad-hatter in me also questions how the government controls oil prices as well.. Lots of tax revenues from oil and gas..

I think we will see 75 again if we can keep oil attached to S&P.. But it doesnt take a mushroom cloud in the east to prove me wrong.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:44 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Panicky markets. I don't get it? Where's all the uncertainty? Greece will default, France will be downgraded, Germany will return the Deutschmark.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:02 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

they say it's for horses
and not for men
they say i'll kill me
but they won't say when

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:07 | Link to Comment FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

I still have a few Deutschmarks floating around.  Who would have thought they would be of use again?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:31 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The new Deutschmarks will be completely different from the vintage fiat you now hold. It will remain in it's current currency status of worthlessness.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:20 | Link to Comment johny2
johny2's picture

They won't. but there is a way to get some of the new deutschmarks at large discount. And it carries almost no risk. While there is a reason why thr real estate in berlin is cheaper than anywhere in europe ( laws ), if the germany gets its own currency, this real estate is suddenly going to become some of the most expensive in europe. And if the euro survives, you still are buying relatively cheap, and will be getting a reasonable return. Just an idea for those that want to diversify. 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:19 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Anyone still trading in today’s markets are too stupid to know that. They still have faith in Keynesian economics.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:00 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Look.. I have Love for ya man.. so dont go getting all idiot on me here..

Keynesian is NOT! the Problem any more than Austrian is the answer..

The Problem is Corruption, the men driving are drunk on power and high on printer ink.

it would not matter would theory we used, the Corrupt men counting the money inside the FED.. the Share Holders of the Federal Reserve Bank.. they are the problem.

I would not lie to you Bro, not about this shit any way.. if the last cookie was missing, I may blame the dog.. but I am an ubber fat guy.. you cant blame a fat guy for taking the last cookie!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:38 | Link to Comment shazbotz
shazbotz's picture

Admitting defeat before stealing every penny from the citizens is a very hard thing indeed, for the Kleptocrats to do...

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:40 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Germany won't return to the Deutschmark until the Euro hyperinflates away. Centralizing fiat worked when going from the Deutschmark to the Euro, but decentralizing fiat going from the Euro to the Deutschmark won't work. The only way to make it work is to back it by something and then their governments would lose control over the printing presses. Bottom line..the governments won't give up control of the printing presses until it's meaningless to print. The dollar is fundamentally in much worse shape than the Euro because the dollar will hyperinflate sooner.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:22 | Link to Comment AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

Germany leaving the Euro will be the catalyst behind Euro hyperinflating away...  Then Germany wakes up with no debt, whihc was also inflated away!!  Go Germany!!  Bye-bye Euro!!!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:27 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

You're missing one little problem. How does Germany then make a new money? It can't do it without drastically reducing the size of it's government..so it won't.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:33 | Link to Comment AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

Every country is going to have to live within it's means at some point...  Not sure when or how much suffering will be required before we all wake up, but in the end the world will be a happier, healthier, less corrupt place...  Before that happens we're going to all be eating a giant slice of humble pie!!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 17:50 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

The West will be eating humble pie while the East will actually be able to breathe a sigh of relief. Countries again will be able to consume what they produce..the way it should be.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:34 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

you will never see the euro hyperinflate away. NEVER. you will not see the dollar hyperinflate away. as much as everyone maligns the central bankers intelligence, they are playing it pretty shrewd. they WILL NOT RISK THE END OF FIAT by destroying the currencies. they will let sovereigns fall before they destroy what keeps them reigning. they would rather have destruction come via deflation, which keeps fiat afloat, and their jobs intact, than destruction through hyperinflation, which they would lose everything. and you can kiss gold and silver goodbye. it will be utterly obliterated along with everything except physical cash.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 18:07 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

In order to never allow depositors to lose their money, they must print endless streams of fiat.

What you're saying is that they will allow depositors to lose their money, which is what should happen and what must happen in order to save the USD and avoid hyperinflation. I just don't see them doing an about face like that and suddenly start doing the right thing. There's no signs that the Fed is suddenly going to raise interest rates, stop backing mortgages, stop backing the FDIC, stop loans to banks and countries, and stop facilitating the growth of government. I see all of the signs in the exact opposite direction. Hell, Bernanke just through another mandate in the other day to "support the banking system". It sounded to me like it is the start of an excuse to ignore the 2% inflation target. After all of these years of low rates and bailouts, do you really think Bernanke will say, "Oh, I was wrong, we need to to the exact opposite of what I was saying all along."? Bernanke won't say that. He won't throw his life's work under the bus like that even if it means the destruction of the world.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 21:02 | Link to Comment Dugald
Dugald's picture

The problem with you guys is you always assassinate the wrong people!!

 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 23:55 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

the central banks control jackshit.  the fiat confetti they push is a voluntary thing.  When it no longer benefits the government to go along with it, they will end the charade.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:53 | Link to Comment arizona11912
arizona11912's picture

The Germans couldnt go back to the Deutshmark if they wanted to. They'd be forced to print just like everyone else to remain competitive. I'm selling pre-order Euro bonds.....get'em while they're hot. Euro bonds will be soon be the catch phrase here on ZH.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:45 | Link to Comment kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

Once in a while, if you ignore all the fluff, there is a nugget on CNBS. Some steel guy just said steel demand has taken a huge plunge in the last 60 days. Interesting.

The bubbleheads are ignoring that these "good" earnings were mostly before they recent plunge in the worldwide economy.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:46 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

That is bullish for CLF right?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:52 | Link to Comment Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Right. Down 40% in two months, down 7% today. MACD and RSI rolling over. Back up the truck.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:06 | Link to Comment Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

in the LA Times last week there was an article about how there were so few ships coming in to the LA ports to offload their China crap for the holidays as compared to last year.  I think that's a pretty definitive indicator of the slowdown also.

 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:35 | Link to Comment AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

I read that article too!  The slow down was significant...  People have no idea the kind of storm that is brewing on the horizon...  2008 is going to look like a summer shower compared to what's coming...  

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:42 | Link to Comment Dumpster Fire
Dumpster Fire's picture

Deflation bitchezz

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:04 | Link to Comment s2man
s2man's picture

Not if TPTB can do anything about it.  The banks NEED inflation to keep the asset values higher than the loans they have given on them (see housing strategic defaults).  And you know who the banks friend is, the guy with the printing press.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:19 | Link to Comment Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

You're both right. Deflation now. QE3 when there's blood in the streets to prop up the bond bubble and inflate asset prices. PM's to the moon. The paper bon fire will be brutal.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:23 | Link to Comment afdestruction
afdestruction's picture

Napier nailed it^^^^   Deflation if it happens at all (could go eithe way right now) will only be intermediate term

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Quadlet
Quadlet's picture

QE3 when EURUSD=1.24

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:50 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Yeah... But don't try shorting it.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:13 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

The Fed is lying to us, QE3 is happening now. With keeping the very short end at 0%, how can you sell the short end to buy the long end..so..the Fed must be doing more QE.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:25 | Link to Comment LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Ding, ding, ding...... Give this guy some fiat.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 22:57 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

part of hyperinflation is everyone crowding up on the short end. That's what happened in Germany a long time ago. No one wanted to hold their stuff. It deflates the long stuff like houses and beats the crap out of the essentials. The feds knows no one is interested in a long bet on US 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:44 | Link to Comment Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

nm

 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:43 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

so sad, and after all the work speculators did to drive up the price for selfish gain.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:18 | Link to Comment NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

We need a new rumor...where's the new rumor dammit!!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:35 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The Rumour Mill is working on it.

http://youtu.be/Wk2VYwCIcZE

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 20:05 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Where's the tube with blue oil/coolant spraying on the bit. That guy must love buying tools.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:51 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

What kind would Sir like? One can choose from the menu.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:19 | Link to Comment Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

 

 

Bloomberg is reporting that someone has turned the Perpetual Growth Machine back on.

 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:43 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

Because these idiots keep trying to stabilise a fundamentally unstable sinking ship they are creating even greater waves of volatility that will eventually sink it

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:44 | Link to Comment sheeple2012
sheeple2012's picture

Bullish for stox in Cramerica!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:45 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Skittish Coombs....very skittish.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:47 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

you probably shouldn't tell 'em what happened to the last crew on the mercantile exchange. lulz

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:48 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:49 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You made three mistakes. First, you took the job. Second, you came light. A four man crew for me? Fucking insulting. But the worst mistake you made...  empty gun rack.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:52 | Link to Comment marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

lol...a crash always precedes their coming

convert now...or fall forever

great movie

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:53 | Link to Comment jdelano
jdelano's picture

Awesome.  Respect + 100.   When is the damn  sequel coming out?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:57 | Link to Comment caerus
caerus's picture

death by teacup

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:26 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

texas teacup?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:46 | Link to Comment wang (not verified)
Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:06 | Link to Comment s2man
s2man's picture

yay.  penny stocks.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:08 | Link to Comment Belarus
Belarus's picture

I wonder if Eric Sprott is sleeping well now?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:29 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

When the host countries nationalize them they will be worthless.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:48 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Good day to work in the garden.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:50 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

watch in fifteen minutes when the 3:00 FT rumor du jour hits. Crude could stage a complete reversal or break its neck and plummet to the ground. Today we just don't know.

Look at the chart early this morning. I have whiplash.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Quadlet
Quadlet's picture

Margin hike.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:53 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Do you have a reference, or are you speculating?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:06 | Link to Comment Quadlet
Quadlet's picture

Speculating

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:32 | Link to Comment Quadlet
Quadlet's picture

It's called frontrunning for a reason

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:50 | Link to Comment tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Let me guess: Gas goes up now right?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Silver took it on the chin too. Down a buck.

And let me eat a little crow....no black moanday/tuesday.  Perhaps prognostication is best left alone...

It is interesting, here in India, price at the pump is immune to global price swings. When it was $30 a barrel, we awere at X. When it was $140 a barrel, we were at 1.2 X, now, we are at 3X and climbing. 

The set up of global commodity arbitrage is really set up to benefit very few parties.

ORI

OWS Flash De-mob

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:19 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Oil is an important key within the clusterfuck.

ORI guy, when you ate some crow, did it taste like chicken? No black anything yet. Can't predict shit until you are of an expert of criminal minds.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:52 | Link to Comment eBuddha
eBuddha's picture

a bunch of drunken sailors, running from one side of a capsizing boat to the other.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

as ordered by the Captain. The deck chairs must be rearranged just right.......

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:00 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Why isn't the band still playing?!?!?!  Someone strike up the band.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:53 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

The selloff isn't the phenomenon.  It's the cycle after cycle of hopium.  Market's down 3 TDs in the fourth quarter but jumps a percent or so everytime Europe declares a first down (offset by holding, every time).

The game should be simple now: they print a gazillion bux and equities soar in an inflation-fest, or the crushing weight of over-indebtedness brings everything down to near zero.  (Or maybe that's the sequence).

The rest of this is just noise to keep writers at CNBC busy concocting 3-5 conflicting headlines per diem.

That is all.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

I started to throw a flag for "unnecessary roughness" but determined that yours was a clean hit.  Good job!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:56 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Woohoo!  $200 oil, goodbye!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:01 | Link to Comment Gene8696
Gene8696's picture

S&P as well... Better than a cup of coffee, as I was drifting off. Red has become my favorite color. Now if we can just keep the fertile crescent quiet for another week, I can get all lubed-up.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Belarus
Belarus's picture

Yup, covered all longs before big hit as the EUR/USD started to plunge. Next week, the market is going to tank at least 10%. 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:03 | Link to Comment The Heart
The Heart's picture

Well, that is a good thing right?

Is it not true that when the oil prices go up, this has been a sign of some sort of eminent event, or another false declaration of war on another innocent country with too many resources?

Maybe the crashing is because people are waking up fast thanks to videos that are going viral like this one. The judge tells it like it is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsiC7dRVpnw

Kinda hard to start another war when everyone knows who and why they are being falsely started. Then again, looks like they are still trying something.

US forces 'massing on Afghanistan-Pakistan border'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/8834040/US-fo...

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:17 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Sorry that was me, I was trying to get a pop corn crumb that fell between my keys.  Ignore that, rally on

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:23 | Link to Comment RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Finally, a reasonable explanation.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Magnix
Magnix's picture

Cheaper gas price for eveybody?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Oil prices are falling faster than Gold and Silver. I'm still ahead.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:44 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Haha like gas prices go down. I needed a good laugh, silly consumer you are always at the bottom of the totem 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Hearing some rumors that a really big rumor is imminent ...

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:34 | Link to Comment campag
campag's picture

can we all get real oil is trading down $2 on the day -no big deal.  Brent is still $11- higher than 15 days ago. Cant get too excited about a collapse yet. Contract expiry on WTI COULD BE A REASON.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:03 | Link to Comment Gene8696
Gene8696's picture

You mean 7 days ago... And it could be there by Friday again.

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=commoditiesqkchart&symbol=NYM^BZ\Z11

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:06 | Link to Comment Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

As a percentage, wti is getting crushed on an inventory drop. Guess the refiners didn't want to catch a falling knife. Stil waiting for Brent to come back down to reality, lol.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:37 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Price discovery, bitchezzz.

Even in these manipulated, hyper-leveraged ponzi-casinos masqueradeing as "markets", price discovery still occasionally takes place. Albeit out-of-the-blue in (nano-) seconds.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:44 | Link to Comment pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

btw ... what happened to Leo?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 17:03 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Threw a tantrum and left months ago.

 

About halfway down this post: http://pensionpulse.blogspot.com/2011/08/one-flew-over-cuckoos-nest.html

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:28 | Link to Comment ReallySparky
ReallySparky's picture

Don't you know? He is installing Solar Panels.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 15:57 | Link to Comment bernorange
bernorange's picture

Risk on - risk off - risk on - risk off. /Mr. Miyagi

www.pmbug.com

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Rollerball
Rollerball's picture

E-cat:  cold fusion electrolysis burns water and sh*ts copper

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2QszwKOam4

Alchemy bitches

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 17:04 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

The only growth is third world growth, and brazil is undervalued compared to its peers.

Buy EWZ. It may drop to 50. But anywhere in the fifties is a good entry point. Dollar cost average over the next ten years.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 17:59 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

God it sure felt like a down 3-4%. I was shocked that Xle xlf were only down less than 1%. Shocked!?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 18:24 | Link to Comment ivars
Wed, 10/19/2011 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Transitory.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 20:20 | Link to Comment colfaxcap
colfaxcap's picture

Hmmmm. i have a feeling that the Peak Oil Garbage pitched here is not working out and i also have the same feeling the gold trade going to 3000 is going to end up the same way. Peak oil to 300/barrell?? LMAO. where are they today? on the gold to 3,000 trade? Yawn

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 21:24 | Link to Comment msmith
msmith's picture

Oil is likely headed much lower as it could not break through resistance.  The EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, and AUDJPY is telling a risk off USD bullish story.  http://bit.ly/oTmnWa

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 03:45 | Link to Comment whirlybird rules
whirlybird rules's picture

watch EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, Nymex Crude, SPX -  same pulse!   when USD starts to get frothy vs EUR, common event is that oil rallies -out of no where!  And then, euro rallies right along with it!  If one's mission to <support the euro/trash the dollar> or <trash the dollar/support the euro>...   If you were a sovereign with such an agenda,  you may as well get something for your trouble, soooo- you buy oil! Long oil, long term under $100 is a good deal.

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