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i luv money
The gov't loves your money too...and given enough time they will get most of it.
This is bullish, right:
There has been no agreement on any Greek deal or a specific “haircut,” Managing Director Charles Dallara of the Institute of International Finance said in an e- mailed statement today.
The IIF, which represents more than 450 financial companies, said it remains open to a dialogue in search of a voluntary agreement, adding that there is no agreement on any element of a deal.
Bankrupt EU zone just decided 'do nothing' is the best policy....musical hand granades game from here on out.
Great post TD. Most of the traders out there are missing this entirely by hook or crook.
Gold outperorming oil, so copper crushed oil then. Warning, warning, warning. I have got to get that button fixed.
Do not undestimate the importance of the end of the month....which is next Monday. Ramps for month-end usually happen two or three days before the actual date so that trades settle. You also may have asset allocations, from Treasuries to riskier assets, for month end. Again that would happen today or tomorrow.
It just doesn't matter, I tell you...it just doesn't matter.... because all the really hot women end up with the banksters anyway..
Then the banksters get old and fat (as men do), and the hot women leave them, taking 1/2 their ill-gotten loot in a divorce settlement. The fat, old banker then spends his days scrounging for a poker game in the men's grill of some seedy country club, pickling his liver and trying to forget. Sad.
Hey, my CC isn't "seedy"- it's "restricted".... And she only got 33% after I wrote it off.....
attention...here's an update on tonight's dinner...it was veal...i repeat, veal...the winner of tonight's mystery meat contest is jeffrey corbin who guessed "some kind of beef."
This trading range has been very predictable. Can do a simple retracement analysis -- reverse cowgirl spinning dojo butterly fake turkey.
IG was the story of the day. Which, quite ironically, shouldnt be the case seeing as the equities behaved the way they did, but what can we do.
Definitely interesting (if short, read: nice) to see oil not confirming the rally, unlike the prior 2+ weeks of the runup.
the superpowers, especially america are, and, is quietly weening themselves off jacked-up 'me' oil - the u.s. is less than 5 years away from any imported deficit threats, never mind 21st century idle 'me' embargo threats - with canada tar-sands coming on line, ak, tx, mt, nd, mexico's gulf and the 2nd/ 3rd largest 'blue-gold' reserves in world, not to forget our coal we've got a bright future as far as energy concerns are
russia is sitting pretty,... but europe's got problems, and needs 'me' energy - and china,... well it's just a damn shame
note: japan will have our support from ak, thus our true allies stay fast and steady
Your first paragraph has me thinking you are smoking the crack pipe. In looking at oil, make sure you can subtract as well as add.
seriously,... really,... are you for real
learn to read between the fine lines of reality - don't be soooo myopic
great nations plan 10-20 years in advance implementing strategic initiatives
oil = non factor and that goes for a rigged nyse
Can we have a vote every morning.. will DOW be up or down so as ES
That would be fun.
This market is such a complete joke. Italy's idea of austerity is moving the retirement age back one month. Greece hasn't made a debt payment on its own in over a year. When is this going to end? I feel like I am on crazy pills. The world has so much debt and leverage, but yet are greatful leaders think the answer is more leverage and debt? Whats worse, is the gamblers/algos left in the market actually buy this crock of shit. Eventually, the can kicking ability of tptb will come to a stand still and we will have an epic crash...again. Given their track record and the absurd levels of investor stupidity, they just might be able to hold this sucker off until the election for all I know. As for myself, I will load up on physical pms and cash reading for the inevitable crash. Until then, I am out of this circus.
Keep rolling the dice on the longest dated, out-of-the-money SPY puts available. You will lose incrementally in the short run but the inevitable big payoff will be ABSURD.
Just look at it as insurance premiums paid out for the preservation of REALITY.
looks like gmcr is postponing earnings till the 9th...bummer
first off we had a huge run-up so yesterday was a good "distribution day." second there's no reason having taken a quick profit you can then start buying the day after the distribution. i'm not a trader but i fail to see anything empirical in "not losing money by taking a profit" not being bullish going forward. i also think we've beaten this dead horse called Europe for so long even Wall Street is starting to find a way to discount the news. I listened with great interest to Kathleen Hayes' discussion to one our what i think is a very good poster here Peter Tchir (sp?) talk about how "the mistake in 2008 was not letting Bear Stearns fail and then bailing everybody out." I thought that was a great after action "crisis review" and one that agreed with...should it have been possible to think that way at the time. I think this view is very important vis a via Europe since by refusing to let Greece fail the EU is patently putting the entire currency union at risk. In other words Greece is Europe's "Bear Stearns" which if they simply let fail would allow the EU to focus on the mortal danger of either Spain individually or a combination of Italy/Spain causing an immediate collapse. In other words the game is now pretty easy to see: either Europe let's NATO move aggressively to create some form of authority upon Greece getting cut loose from the Union thus allowing the Union itself to focus its entire efforts on going all in on a Spanish rescue (2 trillion sounds about right) or the entire project is lost. It's what Germany "intuited" all the way back in December of 2009 when they announced their intent to be Greece's backstop but just didn't follow through on. Indeed even if Europe goes "all in on Spain" as i think they must it's still a role of the dice.
(updated 10 minutes ago)
It says that news have been leaked by Greek sources of an agreement for a 48% haircut. It also mentions that Merkel and Sarkozy will go directly into negotiations with the bankers regarding the haircut, and if unsuccessful, they will proceed unilaterally to restructure its debt.
Doesn't make sense, not really convinced.
What does unilateral restructuring mean vs cooperative?
The banks lose 50% of their money in both cases.
If they cooperate, they don't get to recoup any of it on their swaps. If they don't cooperate, they get to recoup some of the 50% by declaring default and collecting swap money, at the expense of BAC and JPM.
Looks like an easy call.
Christoph830. Buying out of the money puts has probably the lowest success ratio of any trade in the market. If you are bearish sell out of the money calls. Receive risk preium. It looks like correlations are breaking down. Oh oh for the sensationalists. Back in the 90s a weak euro was good for European equities. You may have to change your intraday fembot based algos.
But note, buying the PUTS carries much less risk than selling the CALLS, especially with such weekly volatility swings. I'd hate to be the one on that end of the trade if QE3 or some other unexpected plan was announced.
Just testing the 200 day MA.
Nothing to see here.
Here I have overlaid Nikkei post 1987 and Nasdaq post 1999 charts to see what Nasdaq could look like in 2022. Interestingly, time scales are almost 99% the same almost EXACTLY. ..first time I see it - that could help to explain the reason for time scale stretching when overlaying patterns.
In general, the same deflation->default-> inflation story in a poorly performing economy is visible, but there is a new thing- sudden appreciation of USD after September 2018, which is visible as sharp drop in stock prices.
As for current short term stock values , if QE3 does not come and it most likely will not as suggested by Silver, Gold, USDx, EUR/USD charts, posted here earlier, NASDAQ can find itself near 500 in April 2013, anyway crashing down from latest July 2012. Enjoy - I will add also Gold prediction chart which most clearly shows QE3 is not coming before Obama is reelected.
By the way, I would be happy if my predictions won't be true- they accumulate into a very nasty ending, and nasty way to the ending- but we can not change human nature- no one has been able to. Greed, envy, fear, fighting, decooperation determines human behavior under stress.
2022....LMAO youre far more likely to be dodging oil tanker hijacking biker fags in assless chaps than doing T/A on stock indexes.
There is no deal with banks regardless of whatever else you may have read.
Tyler I have a question: Have you made any dough in gold/silver/oil/ or the E/S during this MASSIVE move since October 4th? Every article I read on ZH is black-bearish (except the PM's) so I assume you got BBQ'd on the short-equities trade?
The WORST trade of the New Millenium is LONG CASH. Inflation is eating your savings alive.
Hard Assets rock.
Spoken by someone with no cash? Inflation has not yet fully raised its head. Maybe in another 6 months it will cut loose, but not today.
the first sign of trouble?
Miningjunkie- ZH never makes a right call. They have made about 90% wrong calls on everything. I agree with most of their logic but you can't fight the tape. People come here for good in-depth analysis or if they are heavily short equities/futures. I started up reading in March of 2009 and as far as I can tell they were short to the gills even back then.....I am flat every day BTW, but ZH and the doomsayers will have you living underground eating baby food.
Another rear-view trader. After market close, theyre all fukin top experts.
Oh BTW one more thing, funny how these guys are never around when the markets are tanking.
Go long then. Like dumb ass wall street that got slaughtered when Aug markets collapsed. What you are witnessing now is European/US 'leaders' using their saliva and paper to hold the biggest hole forming in markets ever seen
And it won't hold, trust those manics and you'll be fleeced and thrown to the f*cking wolfs.
Hey! I happen to LIKE baby food.
And, it's nutritious too!
stop what are you doing!...no zh is always right..wink wink.
A really good, incisive post - kudos to Capital Context for this analysis.
Weak markets. These rallies may last into early Nov, but the market is dying to roll over. Europe? They have officially gone insane EU French/Germany/Italian etc etc etc. A chaos/black-swan event is growing, my guess, it's Italy revolting against the EU and kicking it's self out. This should set the whole thing in motion with Spain/Portugal following. But I am looking at China now, they cut the RRR rate that will be a bearish signal, if the Wenzhou (subprime crisis) regions becomes a contagion, China will crash on a broader panic.
As for infinity (money printing) boosting equities. There is always a beginning and an end. I think the end is very close.
China RE rolling over. Subprime type meltdown in China coming soon, just like what US is still struggling through. EU is in recession with massive debt. USA at or near recession with debt ceiling debate approaching in 2 weeks, 6mm homes still in distress, and 16% unemployment. This market will quickly find its bottom once all the "bulls" are again overly optomistic (almost about now) and they have bought back into some of these "real cheap" stocks.
Isn't Oil bumping up against a huge trendline that's been in place since 2009? I don't see it breaking through that so easily.
Sheepdog, your a dumbfuck! Lol, I am here everyday. If you are not straight short here they don't listen. I will tell you my call. We go up until they (Europe) actually make a deal and then tank. Free of charge douchedog.
Those butnut Europeans still chatting away, or somthing. Still no news!
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