This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

One Day After The Euphoria, Here Comes The Hangover

Tyler Durden's picture


Now that the kneejerk euphoria, in which nobody had done any work, confirming that the only thing worse than a clueless Europe is an even more clueless market, over the non-bailout has ended, here is the hangover, courtesy of Tullett Prebon.

From Tullett Prebon

It isn’t now…euphoria has greeted the latest rescue plan but stock markets really should get a grip-the grand plan is riddled with pitfalls if not yet holed beneath the water line:

  • The voluntary haircuts have still not been fully acknowledged even from the original 21% let alone 50%
  • ECB and Troika investments are protected (circa Eur 150 bio)-if Greek bank and pension funds are also ringfenced, otherwise they are bankrupt, this is another Eur 85 bio or so which leaves approximately Eur 120 bio of the Eur 350 bio to be restructured i.e. an Eur 60 bio loss but there is a sweetener (credit enhancements) of Eur 30 bio to offset this which makes Eur 30 bio.
  • The debt is projected to be 120% GDP after 8 years, pretty much where Italy’s is now
  • The Eur 1 trillion has not even been established yet, thus the begging bowl to China (Brazil and India have already said jog on). What inducements will be offered?
  • 20% first loss insurance will potentially mean lower rates for insured bonds more pressure on the uninsured
  • No strategy whatsoever for employment or to correct internal or global trade imbalances. Austerity measures continue to asphyxiate the continent, tax revenues collapse further, depression looms, debt levels surge (again)-ECB raise rates(doh!!)

So, all in all, nice try but no cigar-expect more summits sooner rather than later and they won’t be discussing the eonia fix which fell 2.3 bps last night to 0.923% and is foreseen slipping further this evening. The average this MP is presently just under 0.94%-Tuesday may well observe a settlement in the 0.80%s so that, despite the month end turn, which ought to be fairly innocuous, and the make up day on 8th Nov, the eventual tally could be nearer to 0.92%. All things being equal, the dampening effect of the 12 month SLTRO injection is favoured to slice 2/3 bps off this number for the November MP assuming no rate cuts are forthcoming
"[Europe is] a monument to the vanity of intellectuals, a programme whose inevitable destiny is failure: only the scale of the final damage is in doubt"  Margaret Thatcher (she did, however, sign the Single European Act onto the Statute Book!)


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:10 | 1820460 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Pump, n you could see this coming a mile away! FED's goal is to bankrupt everyone, not to make sure shorts are broke and longs are rich. Sorry bulls, we're bankrupt and theyve killed the Golden Goose.


Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:12 | 1820468 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, but isn't the point to profit from the pump, especially when you see it coming?  This is a trading sitre after all.

I think we are once again at the "profit" and plan for next move(s) step.  Keep up SD.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:31 | 1820532 Gene8696
Gene8696's picture

Profit from both the pump AND the dump, if you see it coming....

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:49 | 1820582 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

Hard to profit from price fixing. I want to see investigation into government manipulation of stock market.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:02 | 1820621 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

An investigation conducted by the government no doubt...  You would have to switch off the midget tranny porn at the SEC first..  Good luck.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:07 | 1820643 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

Class action lawsuit

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:15 | 1820671 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

What a great idea!!!!! We could even get the Oakland pigs to investigate themselves!!!! Whowouldathunkit?

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:45 | 1820685 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

Your worst nightmare, right? You're asshole, why not show us picture of that disgusting fuckhead.

I bet many here who have rightly short market, could make claim.

"Veterans Win $7.4 Million Settlement in Federal Debt Collection Class Action
Washington, DC: A $7.4 million settlement has been reached in a class action lawsuit brought against the United States government by military veterans.

The suit alleged that the government's methods of recovering debt owed by veterans for purchases made on military bases was not acceptable because the debts incurred had reached the 10 year statute of limitations.

In 2007, Julius Briggs, a disabled army veteran, filed the lawsuit after the US government kept about $2,300 in tax refunds to pay down a $1,857 debt he incurred buying uniforms and other items on base in 1993.

According to media reports, some 6,700 former military will receive $10,000 each from the settlement, which was approved in court Thursday, January 28th.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that the class action is the first to challenge a federal agency's debt collection tactics.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 12:04 | 1821136 Shvanztanz
Shvanztanz's picture

And that doesn't even challenge the fact that the 1857$ he spent only covered a down payment on a belt buckle and a toilet seat. He couldn't get financed for the $400 hammer.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 02:43 | 1823863 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Allow me to explain those $700 (not $500) hammers to you, then you can decide better about the wisdom of a large Federal Govt.
Military Contractor gets MIL-SPECs from the Pentagon on just how the hammer is to perform, and how to test it to ensure conformance to the MIL-SPECs.  The Pentagon cuts a procurement order for hammers.  Contractor goes out and buys $15 hammers, tests a statistical sample of them to verify their conformance to the MIL-SPECs.  In the process of doing so, a two-foot high stack of paper gets generated so that the Military Contractor and the Pentagon can prove to the US  Congress that the People are not getting less hammer than the Military requires to do the job.  In short, $15 hammer + Two-Foot stack of paper = $700.
Now then, who do we string up here?

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:32 | 1820718 Gene8696
Gene8696's picture

Not if you are the one fixing the price. Hence pump & dump. The corruption works both ways.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:36 | 1820727 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

Ron Paul tells us to use court system to fight corruption. Lets use to fight corruption from government in stock market. Anyone in stock market can see the manipulation, to pretend not there is stupid.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:04 | 1820635 kk1532003
kk1532003's picture

and if that profit comes at the expense of the integrity of the system, to what end is that profit.  French aristocrats profited from a corrupt system up until 1789 as did Russian aristocrats until 1917....  Then those systems failed and they got there heads chopped off.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:49 | 1820789 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure, but then who really know what the Maniacs next moves will be? Lots of good hindsight calls everywhere, but like Ive been saying except for commodities, I'm pretty much out. 

Going in long and short on stocks these days, is it any different than rolling craps?

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:59 | 1820829 Gene8696
Gene8696's picture

Yup... Just no predicting here. As my Wed. Ultra Short of S&P proves... It feels like I'm beating on a hard 8, after the rollout. Suckers bet...

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:17 | 1820487 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I believe in magical beans, I do, I do...

Well, I believe in brain farts, is that close enough?

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:29 | 1820525 SMG
SMG's picture

Obviously you haven't heard, the Mole People from the earth's core are planning to help with a bailout.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:37 | 1820545 HD
HD's picture

Yes, but now the mole people are demanding to mate with our surface women...that wasn't part of the deal mole people...THAT WASN'T PART OF THE DEAL!!!!!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:04 | 1820633 oceanview76
oceanview76's picture

They can have the French's, the men will just raise the white flag when asked.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:37 | 1820543 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

No volume today (no humans).  So up we go!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:49 | 1820578 knukles
knukles's picture

Ya know, this should remind guys of sex on their wedding nites. 
The bondage, blowjobs and anal just up and disappear. 
Bunga Bunga 6%, Yo.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:01 | 1820620 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

That is tragic, Knuks, but it's probably why god invented baby sitters;)

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:10 | 1820461 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

France blinked, Greece is happy, and Germany is about ready to build another wall.  China very happy.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:25 | 1820517 Zedge Hero
Zedge Hero's picture

I have been pissed at China since they said "Oh look at the US and it's oocupy protest- see capitalism doesn't work" to then have riots there 4 days later.  Then they shut down there "Occupy Beijing" searches through their twittter search engine. Anyone who thinks this Occupy Wall Street is about capitalism turning shit so lets go to communism is a joke.  The only socialism happening right now is at the Central Banking level.  Who do you think has the second most billionaires (China).  China's had a Central bank since 1948.  Anyway, sorry for the rant, ever since seeing that 2 year old get run over, I have had it out for the Chinese Communist Party (1%) and their Banking Cartel too.  That's this weeks episode.... 

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:48 | 1820580 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

The mother of the child went to a re-education camp, and the driver had a big fine to pay , so as far as the government is concerned all is good.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:15 | 1820669 BillyBoy22
BillyBoy22's picture

A microcosm of modern china in one sentence.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:12 | 1820467 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Meanwhile shorts got killed yesterday and are licking their wounds. You can be right on reality and truth but wrong on timing, and it will wipe you out. When I start shorting again, I will need a refresher course as it has been so long.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:14 | 1820473 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

With so many resistance levels broken last thursday, I don't understand why people still got burned.  Again, take profits, plan next moves.  The song remains the same.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:20 | 1820499 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Been a long time here too.  Now when I think about shorting I think, "Is the dollar really worth more than a stock?"  No matter what the stock price is, I just can't get behind shorting anything.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:29 | 1820526 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Shorts like myself are licking their wounds, but I'm far from killed. Disclaimer: FAZ long!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:30 | 1820530 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Comletely different sets of rules, mon ami.

Got burned on a Chrysler hedge years ago, when I could no longer borrow the shares.  That's when I learned to trade options. 

When did Goldman ever worry whether the shares even exist?

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:14 | 1820471 gianakt
gianakt's picture

All this EFSF bullshit will never work, I'm going to cash in my 401k when the market opens. I advised all my clients, friends and family to do the same!!!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:16 | 1820482 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I agree.  People need to be getting a little more physical.  If there is one thing that Europe has taught us is that they do get physical when things go bad, and by physical, I mean many different things.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:04 | 1820632 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Let me guess.... Olivia Newton John...

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:40 | 1820555 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

All this EFSF bullshit will never work, I'm going to cash in my 401k when the market opens. I advised all my clients, friends and family to do the same!!!

YES!  That 10% penalty for early withdrawal will feel like nothing when this is all over.  Even before then, taxes are definitely not going down.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:43 | 1820564 glokk26L
glokk26L's picture

I'd love to but my 401 people say I can't.  Not that I've got piles of money in it, but they say I can borrow against it and that's it.  Can't get a straight answer from anybody about how to take the money out.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:43 | 1820565 glokk26L
glokk26L's picture

I'd love to but my 401 people say I can't.  Not that I've got piles of money in it, but they say I can borrow against it and that's it.  Can't get a straight answer from anybody about how to take the money out.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:41 | 1820747 hivekiller
hivekiller's picture

I cashed my 401K account in last year and bought gold. All I did was inform my employer and broker to send me a check.

Sat, 10/29/2011 - 02:48 | 1823866 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Welcome to da club!  The time to grab a chair is BEFORE the music stops!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:14 | 1820474 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Just one broken market, up 300, down 300 and all is well. Scary.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:34 | 1820536 spiral galaxy
spiral galaxy's picture

Just one broken world is more like it.  I've stopped trading as the volitility is costing a fortune in commisions alone, not to mention sleepless nights and lost productivity at work.  So now when the maniacal trading/gambling urge strikes to play the casino, I instead just put a small sum of $$ into an account and consider it a 'win'.  Better than giving it away to Wall St and Charles Schwab et al. .........and makes for a nice beer fund :-)

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:17 | 1820477 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Fitch says that Greece would enter a state of default if investors take a 50% haircut on bonds -- credit event for CDS trigger.

"if accepted, the 50% nominal haircut on the proposed bond exchange would be viewed by the agency as a default event under its Distressed Debt Exchange criteria"

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:15 | 1820478 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

EFSF - Every Friday Someone Fails

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:27 | 1820704 Balmyone
Balmyone's picture

Americans need to develop a gold culture like India.

India's gold and silver imports jump 80% to $31.1bn over six months

And need I say, gold is up, again.  Silver, as usual, follows in its wake.

Buy Some Gold Bars


Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:17 | 1820483 swanpoint
swanpoint's picture

got coin?

The Perth Mint has unveiled the world's largest and most valuable gold coin.

Weighing in at just over one tonne, the 99.99 per cent pure gold coin has been valued at more than $50 million.

A team of a dozen people have worked since late last year to create the coin which measures 80 centimetres wide and 12 centimetres deep, featuring a kangaroo on one side and the Queen's motif on the other.

Mint chief executive Ed Harbuz says the idea was to make it the biggest and best in the world.

"The largest coin in the world up to now has been 100 kilograms, made by a competitor mint, and we thought well, we'd better make it so much bigger that it'll stay the biggest coin in the world for a long time," he said.

"To cast and handcraft a coin of this size and weight was an incredible challenge - one which few other mints would even consider."

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:27 | 1820521 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Dear Santa...

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:58 | 1820611 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

I just ordered two, one for me and one for you.

'cept I didn't have your shipping address, oh weel, two for me and none for you.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:13 | 1820661 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Yep and the other coin is owned by Lorrimer Wilson,and is worth over 5 Million.

Beatiful Maple leaf I believe.

However, these guy's need to get a job.......................

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:16 | 1820484 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Someone should re-adjust those algorithms' input variables.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:16 | 1820485 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

This ain't CandyLand, it's Chutes and Ladders!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:28 | 1820524 pelican
pelican's picture

The only affordable game these days is Russian Roulette

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:45 | 1820572 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Which is exactly what people are playing if they trade this market (with the exception of day traders).

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:16 | 1820486 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

WHY THE PHUCK DON'T THEY LOWER INTEREST RATES? I can't even fathom stupidity on this scale. In every sense of the term! I mean...THIS IS PHUCKING HUGE! (kinda exciting actually...

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:37 | 1820546 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

because once they cut rates then they're really running out of ammo. Why cut and give the PIGS breathing room. They need to keep the pressure on these countries as much as possible. This is smart not stupid. Despite what everyone here thinks they really are trying to save everything and in the process save themselves from losing their jobs.



Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:17 | 1820489 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

"I quite enjoyed the sound of it all. Profit, loss, margins, takeovers, lending, letting, subletting, subdividing, cheating, scamming, fragmenting, breaking away. "

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:54 | 1820594 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Indeed, one of my favorite films to come out of the '90s.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:46 | 1820775 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Ugh, great film but the baby..  Dead men are one thing, babies...

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:18 | 1820491 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Aw...  details, details..

Go'way.. we're too busy compartmentalizing our macro view.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:19 | 1820494 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



EFSF "ruffies"

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:20 | 1820497 Ronaldo
Ronaldo's picture

Yeah, Hangover!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:22 | 1820503 tim73
tim73's picture

Europe is much better off than 3rd world hellhole USA. We actually make useful stuff unlike you FIRE economy fucks. Just wait you motherfuckers, the reality is about to bite your useless asses really badly.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:27 | 1820522 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I agree, and I furthermore think that America should remove all troops from foreign lands and end ALL FOREIGN AID in ALL forms.  These assholes need to get their own damn house in order.  Let the rest of the world fend for itself.  America should start going to work on those farms and oilfields in Alaska and start selling food and energy to the world for GOLD, fuck all fiat.

Careful what you wish for fucknut.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:35 | 1820537 loftgroovv
loftgroovv's picture

I don't think the USA gives "foreign aid" to Europe....



Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:37 | 1820544 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL, really, who underwrites the majority of the IMF, the U.N. and NATO again?

Better look again fucknut.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:40 | 1820553 loftgroovv
loftgroovv's picture

A strange definition of "foreign aid".

Most European countries are net contributors to the IMF, not receivers of said funds.


Back to the doughnuts.....Fucknut!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:53 | 1820584 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

If you don't think the IMF, NATO, or the U.N. have had anything to do with the quality of life in Europe you really have not been paying attention and you don't see that your own European leaders and Banking class are about to burn those countries to the ground again.  People should be in the streets all over the world right now, starting in Europe, not just Greece.  I mean, NATO has the oil following from Lybia again for you idiot.


Sure, myself, my Agricultural company, arable land, my physical, and all my like minded and well armed neighbors are fucknuts, fine.  We will do just fine.  Although we are not in the U.S., I know many in the U.S. in the same position.  Good luck eating in any major city in Europe in the near future.


Got physical?  All paper is worth ZERO, just like the CDS on Greek, next Italy, then Spain, then Portugal.


Maybe even the U.S., but guess what?  The U.S. has resources, arable land and gold.  They really don't care if the paper goes to zero.  Fine, burn it all down, we start over.  Those with resources and physical win again.  Likewise, Brazil, Russia, and China are all on board with this.  This has been the plan all along.  Facts are indeed a bitch. Good luck dude.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:23 | 1820695 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

You forgot aircraft carriers. When it is time to go collecting from fuck nuts.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:16 | 1820675 kk1532003
kk1532003's picture

You can add to that all the cash uncle Benny sent their way in 2008.  The ass clowns in Europe have a very short memory.  Not to mention they would all be speaking German right now were it not for our little foray into world events known as WW1 and WW2.  I for one consider the blood spilled liberating their sorry asses foreign aid....and yes, I agree they don't deserve it....

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:22 | 1820693 DosZap
DosZap's picture


I don't think the USA gives "foreign aid" to Europe....

The US has given foreign aid to everyone on the planet except China, and we even bail out your banks.


Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:32 | 1820708 tim73
tim73's picture

EU gives a lot more as foreign aid as you yanks. Just use google to check it out.

"U.S. development aid has declined steadily over the past 15 years. The U.S. now ranks last among the 22 industrialized countries in percentage of national income given away in development aid: less than 0.1 percent. Tiny Denmark contributes ten times as much of its national income as American taxpayers do. Japan has been the largest provider of official development assistance for ten consecutive years."

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:00 | 1820830 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Good, then no one will mind if the U.S. pulls all military and financial support.  Yeah Japan (defecit now at 230% GDP), winning!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:47 | 1821043 Tramp Stamper
Tramp Stamper's picture

How much did Cuba get?

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:32 | 1820719 Doofer
Doofer's picture

What do you call all those US troops stationed over there?


Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:52 | 1820797 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Europe has had no defense bill since 1945 just after we rebuilt your cities and industry with the Marshall plan.  Your welfare cults have been paid for with our defense welfare.   Who provided your shield for the last fifty years so you could live like grown children and have guvmint backstop you cradle to grave? 

You fucknuts could not even take out gaddafi duck by yourselves, shut up and maybe we will keep the dollar swaplines open maybe..

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:21 | 1820921 tim73
tim73's picture

Typical know-nothing yank idiot. It really requires "natural talent" to become such a dumbass.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:47 | 1820575 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Time to vacuum your 300 square foot euro-crap apartment again.    Me, I think I'll take a stroll on my farm and look at the foilage, then go into my 500 sq foot DEN and smoke a pipe....

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:54 | 1820596 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Europe is much better off than 3rd world hellhole USA. We actually make useful stuff unlike you FIRE economy fucks. Just wait you motherfuckers, the reality is about to bite your useless asses really badly.

TPTB really enjoy useful idiots who spew nationalistic slogans, or argue partisan politics, while they control your lives and money.  The Fed and the ECB are marching in lockstep.  We are all about to get bitten in the ass by reality, and arguing about who has the best rowing bench in the galley is a little bit ridiculous.  Face this reality, you are a slave.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:18 | 1820680 DosZap
DosZap's picture


Your manners suck huge one's, you do not come into a mans house and insult the decor.

You mind your business, and we'll keep bailing out your banks...............calling ZH'ers MF's is about on the level of a Ghetto bitch.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:22 | 1820507 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Of course there is a hangover. IT WOULD NEVER WORK!!!!! Using leverage to fight excessive leverage? Sounds like a Monty Python skit.

And we are on a course for near 100% taxation.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:56 | 1820604 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Of course there is a hangover. IT WOULD NEVER WORK!!!!! Using leverage to fight excessive leverage? Sounds like a Monty Python skit.

Bolderdash!  It has to work, it was approved by the Ministry of Silly Leverage.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:24 | 1820513 DavidJ
DavidJ's picture

Isn't it mainly  funny money for the 1%?  For the man on the street it is real. 


Stop the madness!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:28 | 1820523 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

ok, it is as i predicted. ron paul will run as a 3rd party candidate which will split the opposition vote and allow obama to win reelection. now , where have i seen this before? hmmmm....i dare say, if ron paul does this, as i think he will , then there can be no denying that he was controlled opposition all along........

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:41 | 1820552 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Or an honest bloke that has been saying the same thing for 40+ years who is simply too stupid not to see the bus coming and wants to become a martyr anyway.  Seriously think his life will be at far more risk than Ross Perot's was.  Every other GOP candidate is a shill for the banks or the Fed (Cain).

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:13 | 1820662 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

look, we can argue all day about who he really is and what he really is all about.  let us look at the end result of the situation if he indeed does run as a 3rd party candidate. now his intentions and his motives not withstanding, do you think that the end result of this will be a obama victory?  has this happened before?  yes.  was it a manipulation in all cases? yes.  is it business as usual? yes.  the ends justifies the means. we can sit and argue all day about whether or not ron paul is genuine or not. hell, i grew up and lived near his district most of my life and i knew about him, but i never knew what he really was all about nor did i really care. he was not in my disctrict. one thing is for certain however when i see him make hand signs of the diablo, when i see him making masonic handshakes with individuals, i see a problem , yes i see a problem. you have to be sensitive to these things to understand them. its like george carlin said in one of his performances. they make you think you have a choice, but you don't .   if ron paul was a dangerous man to the jews, he would have met the same fate as james traficant or john f kennedy. it is a sad time when friendship and alliances must be measured in the amount of pain one has it is now, so it has always been in this world, where most men sell out for a few shekels and do whatever it is they are told and go along just to get along...

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:18 | 1820684 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

A lot of wind to simply say "if voting resulted in change, it would be illegal".  Crash the system, fine with me, unlike paper-pushing fucknuts I know what the value of my labor is.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:02 | 1820623 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

ok, it is as i predicted. ron paul will run as a 3rd party candidate which will split the opposition vote and allow obama to win reelection. now , where have i seen this before? hmmmm....i dare say, if ron paul does this, as i think he will , then there can be no denying that he was controlled opposition all along........

Poppycock.  The hole in your reasoning that Ron Paul is a plant for TPTB is assuming TPTB give a hoot whether the Republicans or Democrats win.  They don't.  You might, but haven't we come to learn that neither party will effect any change at all? 

TPTB have a useful pawn to push forward on every issue, and in every party, so they always win.  Having a presidential candidate out there talking about their business is not something TPTB want.  Their members keep to the shadows and do their business quietly. 

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:37 | 1820527 campag
campag's picture

Is the CDS market broken. Hedge Funds that bought them to short the Sovereigns do they have any value in this trade. Banks do they have any hedge to their long positions?

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:31 | 1820533 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

OT, but what the heck is going on in gold this morning?  The price is all over the place.  Are the manipulators losing their ability to undermine gold as a safety play? 

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:42 | 1820560 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture


Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:35 | 1820538 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

similarity with late 2007 ::

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:37 | 1820540 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

I think the black swan event that people have been waiting for is here. It is the destruction of faith on the CDS contracts. As zerohedge reported that’s what banks and other market participants use to manage risk and if this tool is now useless the only way to manage risk is by avoiding taking it and by dumping any risky assets (as explained by Tyler).

That’s why I think, this is it, they made their mistake.

Some people said we will not have a Leman moment because everyone is expecting it and they could be right as proved by Dexia going under but the authorities being able to contain it. They also prevented a sovereign default (for now) just like in Greece’s case (kind of). So the black swan event had to be something new which they are not able to anticipate and this CDS fuck up could be it.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:38 | 1820549 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

In short, the complete destruction in the faith of PAPER.  

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:39 | 1820551 campag
campag's picture

Agreed CDS MARKET  =  Black Swan 2011

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:59 | 1820613 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

You are all wrong ,you konw what is giong to happen, what always happens NOTHING.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:41 | 1820750 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

You guys do not get it..  there is no law contract or trade that can trigger the collapse.  Only hunger can collapse this system, there is no law and no spoon there is only the ponzi..

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:00 | 1820616 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

IMHO, I don't think this is it.    This has been coming and folks 'on the inside' have been vetted for these potential moves.


That 'Black Swan' will come, but it will be like that phone call that wakes you out of bed  at 2 AM on a Tuesday morning - with  the voice at the other end telling you something you don't want to hear

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:38 | 1820740 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

"..........bed  at 2 AM on a Tuesday morning - with  the voice at the other end telling you something you don't want to hear.

Like " there has been another boating accident and all of your physical is missing "

I hate it when that happens......

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:02 | 1820624 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

my gold looked extra shiny yesterday

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:11 | 1820655 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Agreed.  If there is no way to hedge, the only way to reduce risk is to reduce position size. 

Where that money goes is another thing.  It could just be spread out over a larger number of countries' bonds, but you can't hedge that position either so the only advantage would be any on country going down wouldn't sink you.  However, all of these countries are linked, so diversification won't work, and bond holders know it.  I can't see any way around soverign risk being dumped.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:15 | 1820668 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Including U.S. treasuries and bonds.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:37 | 1820548 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.”

 Mark Twain quotes (American Humorist, Writer and Lecturer. 1835-1910)



Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:43 | 1820567 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

QE 3 by any other name is still more money printing. What the hell is a 'voluntary hair cut'? And then they 'leverage up' the already vaporous money in the Euro land bailout fund. Ironically yesterday the Euro rose while Euro land leaders promised to inflate. WTF???

In my view black is white and white is black now. Nothing makes sense. TPTB have done an excellent job of confusing everyone completely. Still, I'm betting that there will be more monetizing to ward off the derivatives monster, and to keep the banksters from making good on their threat to blow up everything we hold dear.( Besides, they need to be kept in the lifestyle they have become accustomed to, don't they?)

 This means: Be long commodities and yes, equities.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:54 | 1820595 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

side note - looks like a flash crash in SLV at yesterday's close

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:54 | 1820597 glokk26L
glokk26L's picture

I've assumed my 401 will just vanish unless I can somehow figure out how to get it out.

Mebbe roll it into the empty ira and then take it out... penalty to move, penalty to withdraw from ira...

I'd be lucky to not end up owing from my calculations.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:17 | 1820681 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

The taxes increases we are likely to see in the near future will nullify those penalties if you withdraw before taxes go up.  More importantly, if they destroy the currency, which they seem to be doing, anything you preserve is likely to have greatly increased purchasing power.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:00 | 1820835 glokk26L
glokk26L's picture

Wish I'd done it the other way, took the ira first, it was easy, just a phone call, how much, wait for the check.

The 401 people, they say, NO you can't have your money, you can take a loan out against it with a penalty or take it out for school or if you're sick or that's it.

Of course, had I known what life would become I would have taken all the money I blew on stupid crap and put a third into metal, a third into lead and delivery systems, and just blown the third a little smarter than I did.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:41 | 1820752 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

I took my 25% penalty and called it a day. Better than a 100% loss. Now my retirement is a shiny sack of phyzz. YMMV.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 09:55 | 1820600 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

My friends:  Time to shift the focus from Europe and start looking at what's going on in China.

If the Chinese government decides to bail out Europe, the Arab Spring/Occupy Wall St. will spread en masse throughout China.  The Chinese people will not watch their government prop up the "lazy" Europeans while they watch the value of their real estate holdings continue to plummet.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:01 | 1820619 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

"Yes, but isn't the point to profit from the pump, especially when you see it coming?"


I believe that 'madness' is commonly known as 'picking up nickels in front of the steamroller'


You want to 'make money' by second guessing Governments - please be my guest.


See you on skid row!

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:02 | 1820625 ian807
ian807's picture

People are still talking about "The Market" like it's made of a bunch of people. It isn't. It's a bunch of ever more sophisticated (but still pretty stupid) artificial intelligence algorithms that "read" the news on the internet for positive adjectives and phrases and purchase accordingly. If I flooded the internet with stories with only the words "EU bailout" and a bunch of random positive emotion words, the results would probably be exactly the same.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:50 | 1820791 zonkie
zonkie's picture

You may be mistaken. I have written some of the algorithms that you are talking about and though it takes lot of "technical" data M2M (machine to machine), the "sentiment" data or the news analysis is fed by humans by so called dialers. Every type of report is quicky read by humans (sometimes they only read headlines though) and then score it on a scale of 1-10 with respect to the sectors they are dealing with. It still happens in seconds but no the machines do not read adjectives, at least the one I developed did not. 

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 15:02 | 1822077 ian807
ian807's picture

Perhaps in some cases, however a Watson-like semantic analysis and/or sentiment analysis were logical next steps to replace human analysts and produce more real-time buy/sell information. Even something as simple as an analysis of "positive" adjectives and adjectival phrases in association with a list of companies, organizations and topics (human editied) would probably work (albeit imperfectly), and so, I assume it's been done, and if successful, replicated.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:11 | 1820657 Finite Supply
Finite Supply's picture

Today's lesson is on the EMH: SPX down 50bps, SPY up 50bps.  Class dismissed.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:39 | 1820742 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Algorithmic mumbo-jumbo - When the CB's are in "Zimbabwe-mode", and that includes China, as was proven back in the mid-late 70's, the equity markets are incapable of staying down because (forgive the broken record) the purchasing power of those currencies which denominate the "value" of common stocks continues to erode. Strip away all of the Gen-X-er geek-talk and what you arrive at is a simple decision: Do you want to horde eroding cash (currencies) or do you want to horde assets?

Well I for one don't for a moment trust the CB's/pols to do ANYTHING to enhance the purchasing power of my cash so why the fuck then should I horde it? Rather, I will jettison it. Out, gone, off the cliff with it. No amount of math/algo/artificial intel bullshit can ever adequately explain this October HISTORIC rally other than a repudiation of the merits of holding/hording CASH which means that ALL the fucking algo's were dead wrong and shorting assets (stocks, gold oil) was a catastrophic error.

My message hasn't changed in ten years and it insulated me from getting BBQ'd like half the algo-driven hedgies who are now buying Perparation H by the caseload.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:40 | 1820745 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Chinese house buyers are upset that house prices are plunging:


<<This is copyrighted material. Please use the following link to reference the original article, but do not copy & paste articles which is copyright infringement.

So here we are, home buyers of previous phases of various developments are now very cross.  Xinhua pointed out 2 days ago that as 2 developers are cutting prices.  Longfor (960.HK) cut prices in the latest phase of one project in Jiading Shanghai by 33%, and another project by as much as 40%.  Tens of the owners who bought the previous phase rushed to the sales office and protested against prices cutting, as that means they will be losing money on their investment in the previous phase. >>

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:42 | 1820759 sheep92
sheep92's picture

One of the stock that has been shorted with impunity is X.  More than 20% of the float is short.  Shorting at 25 for the last 6 weeks and covering in the low 20's has been successful.  Today with the s&p off, X is rallying and is trading at 25.40 as I write.....


Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:42 | 1820761 sheep92
sheep92's picture

One of the stock that has been shorted with impunity is X.  More than 20% of the float is short.  Shorting at 25 for the last 6 weeks and covering in the low 20's has been successful.  Today with the s&p off, X is rallying and is trading at 25.40 as I write.....


Sat, 10/29/2011 - 03:05 | 1823879 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

When I was a child, I "speculated" that I could fly -- until gravity took over.

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 10:50 | 1820790 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Sheesh...what IF... Europe (I mean Germany) got a handle on all this mess?

Don't ask me how they would do it- it does seem FUBAR. But I'm jus' sayin'...

What if?

What if the US, hoping to destoy the Euro (Goldman Sachs as weapon of mass destruction) and gain economic hegemony over the whole fucking planet, along with all the oil etc, fails at the 11th hour? If the US plan to cornhole Europe doesn't work, then guess who gets gang-raped in turn?

The trouble with fiat money is it's too easy to manipulate. The weaknesses in the US plan are 1) can't be backed up by force. Europe ain't Libya. 2) depends on the Europeans (I mean Germans) playing by the rules. The US doesn't, why should they? 3) there are uncontrollable variables, like fanatical Israeli politicians, who have the power to fuck everything up (for the US.. well, for everybody) at the worst possible moment.

I'm not sayin' this won't end in disaster...the history of the planet is bound to be a tragedy. But there could be a few twists and turns left yet in the story.

...just syain'...

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 11:24 | 1820934 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

meanwhile, TED spread closing in on 43...

Fri, 10/28/2011 - 13:29 | 1821499 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

What is Ron Paul supposed to do?Drop his pants and bend over?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!