One Day After The Euphoria, Here Comes The Hangover

Tyler Durden's picture

Now that the kneejerk euphoria, in which nobody had done any work, confirming that the only thing worse than a clueless Europe is an even more clueless market, over the non-bailout has ended, here is the hangover, courtesy of Tullett Prebon.

From Tullett Prebon

It isn’t now…euphoria has greeted the latest rescue plan but stock markets really should get a grip-the grand plan is riddled with pitfalls if not yet holed beneath the water line:

  • The voluntary haircuts have still not been fully acknowledged even from the original 21% let alone 50%
  • ECB and Troika investments are protected (circa Eur 150 bio)-if Greek bank and pension funds are also ringfenced, otherwise they are bankrupt, this is another Eur 85 bio or so which leaves approximately Eur 120 bio of the Eur 350 bio to be restructured i.e. an Eur 60 bio loss but there is a sweetener (credit enhancements) of Eur 30 bio to offset this which makes Eur 30 bio.
  • The debt is projected to be 120% GDP after 8 years, pretty much where Italy’s is now
  • The Eur 1 trillion has not even been established yet, thus the begging bowl to China (Brazil and India have already said jog on). What inducements will be offered?
  • 20% first loss insurance will potentially mean lower rates for insured bonds more pressure on the uninsured
  • No strategy whatsoever for employment or to correct internal or global trade imbalances. Austerity measures continue to asphyxiate the continent, tax revenues collapse further, depression looms, debt levels surge (again)-ECB raise rates(doh!!)

 
So, all in all, nice try but no cigar-expect more summits sooner rather than later and they won’t be discussing the eonia fix which fell 2.3 bps last night to 0.923% and is foreseen slipping further this evening. The average this MP is presently just under 0.94%-Tuesday may well observe a settlement in the 0.80%s so that, despite the month end turn, which ought to be fairly innocuous, and the make up day on 8th Nov, the eventual tally could be nearer to 0.92%. All things being equal, the dampening effect of the 12 month SLTRO injection is favoured to slice 2/3 bps off this number for the November MP assuming no rate cuts are forthcoming
 
"[Europe is] a monument to the vanity of intellectuals, a programme whose inevitable destiny is failure: only the scale of the final damage is in doubt"  Margaret Thatcher (she did, however, sign the Single European Act onto the Statute Book!)
 

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SheepDog-One's picture

Pump, n dump...man you could see this coming a mile away! FED's goal is to bankrupt everyone, not to make sure shorts are broke and longs are rich. Sorry bulls, we're bankrupt and theyve killed the Golden Goose.

Reality.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, but isn't the point to profit from the pump, especially when you see it coming?  This is a trading sitre after all.

I think we are once again at the "profit" and plan for next move(s) step.  Keep up SD.

Gene8696's picture

Profit from both the pump AND the dump, if you see it coming....

whstlblwr's picture

Hard to profit from price fixing. I want to see investigation into government manipulation of stock market.

Calmyourself's picture

An investigation conducted by the government no doubt...  You would have to switch off the midget tranny porn at the SEC first..  Good luck.

LongBallsShortBrains's picture

What a great idea!!!!! We could even get the Oakland pigs to investigate themselves!!!! Whowouldathunkit?

whstlblwr's picture

Your worst nightmare, right? You're asshole, why not show us picture of that disgusting fuckhead.

I bet many here who have rightly short market, could make claim.

Example:
"Veterans Win $7.4 Million Settlement in Federal Debt Collection Class Action
Washington, DC: A $7.4 million settlement has been reached in a class action lawsuit brought against the United States government by military veterans.

The suit alleged that the government's methods of recovering debt owed by veterans for purchases made on military bases was not acceptable because the debts incurred had reached the 10 year statute of limitations.

In 2007, Julius Briggs, a disabled army veteran, filed the lawsuit after the US government kept about $2,300 in tax refunds to pay down a $1,857 debt he incurred buying uniforms and other items on base in 1993.

According to media reports, some 6,700 former military will receive $10,000 each from the settlement, which was approved in court Thursday, January 28th.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that the class action is the first to challenge a federal agency's debt collection tactics.

Shvanztanz's picture

And that doesn't even challenge the fact that the 1857$ he spent only covered a down payment on a belt buckle and a toilet seat. He couldn't get financed for the $400 hammer.

StychoKiller's picture

Allow me to explain those $700 (not $500) hammers to you, then you can decide better about the wisdom of a large Federal Govt.
Military Contractor gets MIL-SPECs from the Pentagon on just how the hammer is to perform, and how to test it to ensure conformance to the MIL-SPECs.  The Pentagon cuts a procurement order for hammers.  Contractor goes out and buys $15 hammers, tests a statistical sample of them to verify their conformance to the MIL-SPECs.  In the process of doing so, a two-foot high stack of paper gets generated so that the Military Contractor and the Pentagon can prove to the US  Congress that the People are not getting less hammer than the Military requires to do the job.  In short, $15 hammer + Two-Foot stack of paper = $700.
Now then, who do we string up here?

Gene8696's picture

Not if you are the one fixing the price. Hence pump & dump. The corruption works both ways.

whstlblwr's picture

Ron Paul tells us to use court system to fight corruption. Lets use to fight corruption from government in stock market. Anyone in stock market can see the manipulation, to pretend not there is stupid.

kk1532003's picture

and if that profit comes at the expense of the integrity of the system, to what end is that profit.  French aristocrats profited from a corrupt system up until 1789 as did Russian aristocrats until 1917....  Then those systems failed and they got there heads chopped off.

SheepDog-One's picture

Sure, but then who really know what the Maniacs next moves will be? Lots of good hindsight calls everywhere, but like Ive been saying except for commodities, I'm pretty much out. 

Going in long and short on stocks these days, is it any different than rolling craps?

Gene8696's picture

Yup... Just no predicting here. As my Wed. Ultra Short of S&P proves... It feels like I'm beating on a hard 8, after the rollout. Suckers bet...

kaiserhoff's picture

I believe in magical beans, I do, I do...

Well, I believe in brain farts, is that close enough?

SMG's picture

Obviously you haven't heard, the Mole People from the earth's core are planning to help with a bailout.

HD's picture

Yes, but now the mole people are demanding to mate with our surface women...that wasn't part of the deal mole people...THAT WASN'T PART OF THE DEAL!!!!!

oceanview76's picture

They can have the French's, the men will just raise the white flag when asked.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

No volume today (no humans).  So up we go!

knukles's picture

Ya know, this should remind guys of sex on their wedding nites. 
The bondage, blowjobs and anal just up and disappear. 
Bunga Bunga 6%, Yo.

kaiserhoff's picture

That is tragic, Knuks, but it's probably why god invented baby sitters;)

LawsofPhysics's picture

France blinked, Greece is happy, and Germany is about ready to build another wall.  China very happy.

Zedge Hero's picture

I have been pissed at China since they said "Oh look at the US and it's oocupy protest- see capitalism doesn't work" to then have riots there 4 days later.  Then they shut down there "Occupy Beijing" searches through their twittter search engine. Anyone who thinks this Occupy Wall Street is about capitalism turning shit so lets go to communism is a joke.  The only socialism happening right now is at the Central Banking level.  Who do you think has the second most billionaires (China).  China's had a Central bank since 1948.  Anyway, sorry for the rant, ever since seeing that 2 year old get run over, I have had it out for the Chinese Communist Party (1%) and their Banking Cartel too.  That's this weeks episode.... 

 http://www.youtube.com/user/zedgehero 

Abitdodgie's picture

The mother of the child went to a re-education camp, and the driver had a big fine to pay , so as far as the government is concerned all is good.

BillyBoy22's picture

A microcosm of modern china in one sentence.

monopoly's picture

Meanwhile shorts got killed yesterday and are licking their wounds. You can be right on reality and truth but wrong on timing, and it will wipe you out. When I start shorting again, I will need a refresher course as it has been so long.

LawsofPhysics's picture

With so many resistance levels broken last thursday, I don't understand why people still got burned.  Again, take profits, plan next moves.  The song remains the same.

Hansel's picture

Been a long time here too.  Now when I think about shorting I think, "Is the dollar really worth more than a stock?"  No matter what the stock price is, I just can't get behind shorting anything.

homersimpson's picture

Shorts like myself are licking their wounds, but I'm far from killed. Disclaimer: FAZ long!

kaiserhoff's picture

Comletely different sets of rules, mon ami.

Got burned on a Chrysler hedge years ago, when I could no longer borrow the shares.  That's when I learned to trade options. 

When did Goldman ever worry whether the shares even exist?

gianakt's picture

All this EFSF bullshit will never work, I'm going to cash in my 401k when the market opens. I advised all my clients, friends and family to do the same!!!

LawsofPhysics's picture

I agree.  People need to be getting a little more physical.  If there is one thing that Europe has taught us is that they do get physical when things go bad, and by physical, I mean many different things.

Calmyourself's picture

Let me guess.... Olivia Newton John...

Smiddywesson's picture

All this EFSF bullshit will never work, I'm going to cash in my 401k when the market opens. I advised all my clients, friends and family to do the same!!!

YES!  That 10% penalty for early withdrawal will feel like nothing when this is all over.  Even before then, taxes are definitely not going down.

glokk26L's picture

I'd love to but my 401 people say I can't.  Not that I've got piles of money in it, but they say I can borrow against it and that's it.  Can't get a straight answer from anybody about how to take the money out.

glokk26L's picture

I'd love to but my 401 people say I can't.  Not that I've got piles of money in it, but they say I can borrow against it and that's it.  Can't get a straight answer from anybody about how to take the money out.

hivekiller's picture

I cashed my 401K account in last year and bought gold. All I did was inform my employer and broker to send me a check.

StychoKiller's picture

Welcome to da club!  The time to grab a chair is BEFORE the music stops!

monopoly's picture

Just one broken market, up 300, down 300 and all is well. Scary.

spiral galaxy's picture

Just one broken world is more like it.  I've stopped trading as the volitility is costing a fortune in commisions alone, not to mention sleepless nights and lost productivity at work.  So now when the maniacal trading/gambling urge strikes to play the casino, I instead just put a small sum of $$ into an account and consider it a 'win'.  Better than giving it away to Wall St and Charles Schwab et al. .........and makes for a nice beer fund :-)

Cult_of_Reason's picture

Fitch says that Greece would enter a state of default if investors take a 50% haircut on bonds -- credit event for CDS trigger.

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/detail.cfm?pr_id=7...

"if accepted, the 50% nominal haircut on the proposed bond exchange would be viewed by the agency as a default event under its Distressed Debt Exchange criteria"

kaiserhoff's picture

EFSF - Every Friday Someone Fails

Balmyone's picture

Americans need to develop a gold culture like India.

India's gold and silver imports jump 80% to $31.1bn over six months

And need I say, gold is up, again.  Silver, as usual, follows in its wake.

Buy Some Gold Bars

 

swanpoint's picture

got coin?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/3604566-4x3-940x705.jpg

The Perth Mint has unveiled the world's largest and most valuable gold coin.

Weighing in at just over one tonne, the 99.99 per cent pure gold coin has been valued at more than $50 million.

A team of a dozen people have worked since late last year to create the coin which measures 80 centimetres wide and 12 centimetres deep, featuring a kangaroo on one side and the Queen's motif on the other.

Mint chief executive Ed Harbuz says the idea was to make it the biggest and best in the world.

"The largest coin in the world up to now has been 100 kilograms, made by a competitor mint, and we thought well, we'd better make it so much bigger that it'll stay the biggest coin in the world for a long time," he said.

"To cast and handcraft a coin of this size and weight was an incredible challenge - one which few other mints would even consider."

Muddy1's picture

I just ordered two, one for me and one for you.

'cept I didn't have your shipping address, oh weel, two for me and none for you.

DosZap's picture

Yep and the other coin is owned by Lorrimer Wilson,and is worth over 5 Million.

Beatiful Maple leaf I believe.

However, these guy's need to get a job.......................

Scalaris's picture

Someone should re-adjust those algorithms' input variables.

TideFighter's picture

This ain't CandyLand, it's Chutes and Ladders!