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One Day Ahead Of Q2 GDP, Visualizing The Disastrous Historical "Growth" Consensus Estimates

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Any time Wall Street tells you something, ignore it. Case in point: the historical "consensus" forecast of Q2 GDP. We have presented this chart before, most recently as pertains to Q1 GDP, although when it comes to unmasking Wall Street's broad incompetence, repeated showings never hurt. And the chart speaks volumes not only to just how much more "insight" those experts have into the future of the economy (none, but that doesn't prevent them getting multi-million bonuses at the end of every year), but also that any hopes of a Q3 and Q4 economic rebound will be imminently dashed. Below is the dramatic(ally wrong) history of Q2 GDP consensus forecasts, one day ahead of the first estimate of the official data release which will now most likely come well below a contractionary level in real terms.

Q2 GDP

Or seen on a continuous basis:

For comparative purposes, below is what this chart looked like back in April, together with our commentary from back then:

In the meantime, here is what Q2 GDP predictions look like. In good old "he who defects first" fashion, we predict that it will be Goldman once again to be the first desk to downgrade both Q2, H2, and FYE GDP, to be promptly followed by David Kostin cutting his S&P 2011 forecast from 1,500 to 1,300. After all the time to set the stage for QE3 is fast approaching and who better to load up on commodities in advance than the world' second largest hedge fund (the largest of course being the Federal Reserve).

 

And you thought only dot com projections had hockey sticks in them...

 

We doubt we have to explain what we think will happen to the chart of Q3 consensus forecast, but for those who have not been reading Zero Hedge over the past year, we are fairly confident in a sub-2%Q3 GDP print when all is said and done.

Unless, of course, we get one thing in the meantime: another round of quantitative easing, which is the sole culprit for the recurring GDP distortion.

h/t John Lohman

 

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Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:24 | 1502693 adr
adr's picture

Ahh hah ha. "Well insiders normally sell more than they buy since they need cash to pay for things like a down payment on a house or a kids education". Some of these insider transactions could buy entire towns.

Where is the SEC on these BS IPOs that are doubling or tripling on the first trade of the day?

TEAVANA UP 67% ON THE FIRST TRADE!!! Wall Street has lost its frickin mind.

There isn't any way in hell every single Teavana store does over $1 million in sales per year. To get their supposed revenue that is what it would take.

I remember when I did the math on Dick's sporting goods and somehow every single store would need to generate over $30k in sales every day of the year to get to the value reported in the yearly investor report.

I'll tell you how it works. Your company actually sells all of its product to itself but those sales are recorded on different books. When the retail store actually does sell some of its over-inventoried product that also counts as a sale but you group all sales together. At the end of the fiscal year, which you record differently from your largest suppliers, you take a tax writedown on any outstanding inventory. You also force your suppliers to take back the inventory, after you record your inventory losses of course, allowing them to writedown their excess inventory. The supplier then resells that exact inventory back to you at the start of the next quarter making their sales look good and your inventory buildup look promising for profits.

It is just a publicly traded shell game. Do you really think people actually buy all that Under Armour sitting in stores?

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:25 | 1502694 B-rock
B-rock's picture

"Story not found"?

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 22:20 | 1503060 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

Try this.  http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/corporate-insiders-are-selling-fa...!51167DFD-4376-4EC6-AD0D-41BBCB755638

Also, you might want to take some Red Bull to the interviewer.  She seems to have trouble staying awake.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:28 | 1502701 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

at unusually fast pace....

HAVE THOSE FUCKERS BEEN BLIND?! DO THEY COME FROM MARS?! Waiting till the last few days to sell...

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:28 | 1502704 caerus
caerus's picture

I was thinking about this the other day...blacks already been used...how bout Friday bloody Friday? apologies to Bono and everyone on this board

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:46 | 1502745 Sledge
Sledge's picture

try this :

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/corporate-insiders-are-selling-fa...!51167DFD-4376-4EC6-AD0D-41BBCB755638

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:15 | 1502670 Mongo
Mongo's picture

That last image says it all

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:20 | 1502684 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Will be spun as BTE by Steve Liesman.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:23 | 1502691 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

"one day ahead of the first estimate of the official data release which will now most likely come well below a contractionary level in real terms."

Don't you bet your life or life savings on this.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:27 | 1502699 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

This is going to be fun to watch.

They'll soon announce the printing of so much money that PM's will become a holy grail.

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:35 | 1502720 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

While turbo threatens to raid accounts, watch the blowback begin. Make sure you record events.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 20:11 | 1502799 serendipitous_one
serendipitous_one's picture

Which is precisely why I bought more PMs this week....

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 21:36 | 1502980 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Me too

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:34 | 1502716 swissinv
swissinv's picture

no surprise given the fact that US GDP is just a function of spending

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:47 | 1502730 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Obama ordered to produce an ugly GDP print to scare the public and to force congressional pinheads to vote for a new $2.4T credit card.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:40 | 1502731 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

Its all just "sauce" that the Fed needs to convince everyone that they need to ride to the rescue again!  We only get a poor print number when they need it to sell the public on some new bullshit plan.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:43 | 1502738 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:43 | 1502739 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

<----- RobotTrader is teaching us how to follow price, not news

<----- RobotTrader is an F12-punching, Red Bull swilling, momentum junkie that should be junked

Actually, the Investors Business Daily "Riverboaters" were pretty much unfazed today.  They are still "defending" their positions mightily.

LULU still the No. 1 ranked stock on the Top 50 list.

http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9787275

 

 

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:50 | 1502751 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Okay, that was really clever!

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 19:58 | 1502765 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Why can't I vote for both?

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 20:09 | 1502795 malikai
malikai's picture

I tried to as well. Shame.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 20:08 | 1502786 jomama
jomama's picture

hilarity ensued

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 20:15 | 1502807 pods
pods's picture

Okay, that was pretty good. I gave you a thumbs up, eventhough I do not invest on your advice.  Sorry, but I got kids to clothe.

pods

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 22:25 | 1503081 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I voted for the price teaching but on reflection I wonder what the difference is between that and momo junkie.

Thu, 07/28/2011 - 23:31 | 1503206 natty
natty's picture

It has just been reported via Adam Schefters twitter account that former Delaware quarterback Pat Devlin and the Dolphins have agreed to terms. Although it was previously reported that the Dolphins had agreed to terms with FAU Qb Jeff Van Camp, the Dolphins have instead signed Devlin as an undrafted free agent to come in and compete for the 3rd string quarterback spot. Pat Devlin will wear Green Bay Packers Jerseys and play for Miami Dolphins next season. You can log on our Online NFL Shop and select our best quality Miami Dolphins New Nike Jerseys if you are true fans of Miami Dolphins.

Fri, 07/29/2011 - 03:43 | 1503641 qing
qing's picture

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