The Only Thing We Have To Hope Is Hope Itself

Tyler Durden's picture

With today's payroll print hardly bad enough to prompt instantaneous QE (as evidenced by the weakness in gold for now) and increasing truth coming out of Europe which confirms our non-game-changing EU-Summit calls; it seems S&P 500 futures remain confident about something since they have only retraced 38% of the EU-Summit hope rally, while EURUSD is over 100% retraced, European Sovereign bond yields have retraced over 100% of the gains, Italian banks stocks have given up between 75 and 100% of their gains and across all European banks equity prices have given up 50% of their gains. So what is there left for ES? Earnings? (not so much with the number of negative pre-announcements); Housing (hhm don't think so)

EURUSD has retraced 150% of the post-EU Summit rally (thanks to ECB cuts as well as hope fading)...

 

Fulcrum securities have almost fully retraced the gains - Italians banks for instance...

and even broad European bank stocks have lost over 50% of their gains... (or 100% of their gains from Friday's opening levels - where traders would have actually entered...

and EU Sovereign spreads are wider now than pre-sumit...

and yet S&P 500 futures are only down 38.2% from their post EU Summit highs...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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francis_sawyer's picture

Cue the alien invasion at the London Olympics...

molecool's picture

You're watching too much Doctor Who.

Randall Cabot's picture

Looks like a hope-a-dope to me and the BTFDs are the dopes.

Peter Pan's picture

Hope is not a strategy. But a good strategy can give hope. If you haven't got any strategy then fall back on the best parachute in the business......precious metals.

emersonreturn's picture

agreed, PM and strategy...if all we have is hope, the situation is indeed hopeless.  it's difficult to distinguish delusion and/or illusion from hope.  hope at this point if possible resides in the realm of the mystical. 

GeezerGeek's picture

I bet the Doctor could fix the global economy with nothing more than his sonic screwdriver. All we have in the US, however, is the Dalek-like Obama going around talking about the economy and saying "Exterminate, exterminate!"

francis_sawyer's picture

What?... I'm just trying to keep myself amused watching these fucking frat boys trying to invent new ways of keeping the dam from bursting...

davinci7_gis's picture

I looked out my high rise today and saw Bill Gross dancing in the streets like Ferris Bueller!  I think this is his best summer yet!

101 years and counting's picture

ES will catch up......in a flash.

Ivanovich's picture

Where's Waddell and Reed when you need them?

hugovanderbubble's picture

Hope is not an asset class.

Paper CRUSHer's picture

Too bad, if it was t'would be trading at a new 52 week high.

kito's picture

hope is the new p/e for stocks...........inverse of course.....the higher the hope, the better the buy..............load up now.......there is lots of hope!!!!

hugovanderbubble's picture

SPAIN HAS DROPPED 500 points and filled the gap from 29th...LEADING INDICATOR¡

LawsofPhysics's picture

If only technicals mattered.  Prepare for war folks, on many fronts.

Race Car Driver's picture

With all the manipulation in the 'markets', charts are useless... the banksters can make them go up or down like the strings on the puppets we call elected leaders. Up and down, like the bobbing heads of supposed 'regulators' in the laps of the oligarchs.

War, on us useless eaters and useful idiots, indeed.

GeezerGeek's picture

The linked article includes this: " ...for the coming six-month periods, this 'second Renaissance' of the European project will really be the only good news at world level."

Somehow I just don't see any renaissance happening in the EZ. I have found it easy to disagree with many statements made by Leap2020. This is one of them. Further, their faith in Hollande is diametrically opposed to my expectations, as is their suppostition that Greece will be fixed. Until Europe (and the US) attends the 'school of hard knocks' nothing will get fixed.

Just my opinion, of course.

q99x2's picture

Whales dancing to the song of re-hypotheticated hope.

Any image could fade in from here. Like that time you took acid and shouldn't have.

Could be the chairsatan. Merkel in a nazi suit. Max Keiser as the terminator or Hillary Clinton as herself.

BeetleBailey's picture

Tyler....it can't be said enough.....kudos to you and your staff for the wonderful work and timely reports.

Much appreciated.

John Law Lives's picture

+1000

Best financial site on the 'net.

kito's picture

brian sack must be back at the reigns of the ppt. nothing but crappy and then crappier news, day after day, and the dow still holds high for all the world to see.....even today, dow down only sub 1 percent.........how does anybody buy into the legitimacy of this??????.............

Vince Clortho's picture

There is no legitimacy. BS is a puppet doing what he is supposed to do.

The Club Fed boys need the "market" indices to look like the economy is "recovering".

It would appear the Muppets place a higher priority on this than other economic indicators like their neighbors losing their home, or their son-in-law being laid off.

Liquid Courage's picture

When it reigns, it poors ... no, wait,

When it reins, it pores ... hang on a sec,

When it rains it pours ... yeah, that's it.

... back at the reins of the ppt ...

Really good question though. By the volume percentages attributed to HFT you see bandied about, it seems to be a dwindling minority and as the "real economy" continues to deteriorate, the cognitive dissonance only becomes more and more obvious ... infuriating, even. Playing with fire, Boyz.

Shizzmoney's picture

A whole lot of arches here......kind of like how the only jobs people have gotten in the last 3 mths have been at a McDonald's.

GeezerGeek's picture

And yet the MSM is devoid of references to those jobs being "only" hamburger-flipping jobs. Funny how under Bush (curse his fascist tendencies) these were pathetic excuses for jobs, but under Obama (curse his fascist tendencies) they are apparently satisfactory, unworthy of disparaging commentary. I guess that's an improvement, right?

nobusiness's picture

Why do you think Brian Sack didnt leave the PPT (i mean the FED)

youngman's picture

Times have changed....curriencies used to be a slow mover...over time...now they change very fast...in just the last 5 years I would say

Hype Alert's picture

So when GS makes another 1285 call on the S&P, we have less than 24 hours before QE is announced and this time on a global scale as all central bankers are in the loop.

valkir's picture

Ok,80000 hired in june.What about all who lost theyr job?What about 10000 babyboomers going to retirement each day?

Vince Clortho's picture

The comma is your friend.

HoofHearted's picture

What about the 1,000,000+ model adjustment to get the BLS up to the 80,000 jobs???

GeezerGeek's picture

Happens with boats, too. Many here have suffered similar tragedies.

Flakmeister's picture

What does powerpoint have to do with this?

GeezerGeek's picture

Maybe the HFT algos are initiated by a macro in a PPT presentation. The PTB sit in a room watching the slides go by until finally one has a button that says Dow+50 or ES+10. Click on the button, the macro executes the algo, and stocks rise.

HD's picture

The markets undying, unshakable faith that QE3 is coming and that it will fix everything transcends delusional at this point. When that final hope is dashed - all hell will break loose.

adr's picture

If the algos are sitting in buy mode after the press of the Sackmeister button, they need to be reprogrammed to sell. Bidding up the market 5% in one day is simple, the puppetmasters like that. Selling it down 5% in one day is only allowed if it will send the Fed into full QE mode.

Besides sending the market down 5% requires Goldman and JP to set up short positions first.

q99x2's picture

Time for a summit. Joint Central Bank Intervention like the San Diego fireworks. Let's do this. Yeeeehaaaaaa

GrinandBearit's picture

"Hope and change".  

How much more vague can you possibly get?  

No matter... the sheeple ate it up.

 

MFL8240's picture

So Gold only goes up when the sociopath decides to call his money printing QE3 even though he is buying bonds with printed confetti?  Give me a break, this is becoming a godamn joke.

rsnoble's picture

As of now JPM isn't looking real week considering the downmove.  They'll probably close this market flat unless it accelerates.  Being that it's friday, and they love green fridays, keep an eye on it.

ghostzapper's picture

I love the arrows Tyler.  Cracks me up every time.  Well placed just in case any moron intoxicated by CNBC bullshit can't identify what the markets are saying. 

John Law Lives's picture

Let's see CNBS try to spin this... (not that I advocate anyone actually watching that excrement...)

Disability Ranks Outpace New Jobs In Obama Recovery
By JOHN MERLINE, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 09:45 AM ET

http://news.investors.com/article/617233/201207060945/disability-climbs-...

excerpt:

"More workers joined the federal government's disability program in June than got new jobs, according to two new government reports, a clear indicator of how bleak the nation's jobs picture is after three full years of economic recovery."

Snakeeyes's picture

HOPE AND CHANGE, BABY!

237,000 more people went on disability than the decline in unemployment since June 2010.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/06/summertime-blues-u6-unemployment-rises-to-14-9-nonfarm-payrolls-grow-only-80k/

Mugatu's picture

Here is a summary of the new normal we live in:

 

  1. Extremely bad news is extremely good - because the fed will come in with easing
  2. Pretty bad news is good - rumors of QE will help float the market.
  3. Slightly bad news is very bad - not enough gloom to move the Fed.
  4. A little good news is neutral - Let the algo programs decide what to do and follow their lead.
  5. Pretty good is mildly positive - buy in the morning at 11 EST and sell at close (easy cash).
  6. Extremely good news - wait one hour then buy any dip and sell at the end of the day.

Fundamentals do not matter.  Technical analysis does not matter.  In this new normal you must only follow these 6 simple rules to make money.  It is a wierd upside down retarded world now where logic makes no sense.  Whenever government is too intrusive, it will always make no sense.  Now, go out a trade rape all the idiots who are thinking logically!