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The Only 'Un-Manipulated' Chart Of The Real Un-Recovery You'll Ever Need
Probably no other commodity is tied to global growth, especially EM and China growth, than the key steel-making ingredient - Iron Ore. The iron ore price continues to plunge and it would appear that very few are focused on it. Critically, this is the one commodity that is not a futures contract, cannot be manipulated by trading desks or by levered hedge funds. Despite all the euphoria about risk assets and commodities - and the central bank front-running - Iron Ore prices continue to sink lower and lower...
(h/t wallstreetmane)
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Gina Reinhart might have to go on a diet.
Interesting - according to Doug Short there is almost no chance of us entering a recession.
BUY SIGNAL !
Triple bottoms are, oh, so rare.
So, Gina Reinhart really needs that diet. How many chins does she have?
More than a chinese phone book.
HA! That's one's so old the first time I heard it I fell off my dinosaur and cracked my stone underwear.
is that a triple bottom or a completed right shoulder now going thru the 2 previous lows finishing off the head and shoulders pattern
no chance of us entering a recession?
I say proven beyond reasonable doubt the world has.
I think the takeaway here is that we've blown past it, never to return.
Actually the whole of Australia will be going on a diet at this rate. As for the Brazilians they will also feel the pinch having commissioned the construction of about 18 supertankers for the transport of ore.
The two product/two customer economy of Australia may well be hitting a speed hump of epic proportions.
Two-speed economy engages reverse thrust...it's hard to slow down all those Audi's ya know!
Historically the price is still pretty freaking low
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=240
Nice and very straight forward H&S plot..
Isn't that like the "Matterhorn" formation?
Australian housing crash in 10....9.....8.....
On top of that the Julia might want to revise the estimated $10 billion her government was meant to get from the new mining tax and the estimated $450 billion in capital expenditure this year on mining related works. I agree with the poster above Australia could be heading for a major hit.
Didn't Swan predict he will reduce Australia's debt due to high iron ore prices? Me thinks he will be wrong!
LOL
I LOLed at those who paid $100 for CLF.
But this was predictable: http://www.cnbc.com/id/46800124/Cramer_Talks_With_Cliffs_Natural_Resourc...
Ummm that's becuase Economy of Scale took over....yearh....that's it. Does that allow me to walk into the nearest university and claim my Econ PhD? Also, do I get to be on CNB(S)C as an "economic expert"?
China must have run out of empty cities to build. Time to tear some down and start over.
John Maynard Keynes texted me to say he approved of your plan to revitalize the ponzi scheme
He would have called, but his mouth was full of cock.
Post of the night WINNER!
That's just how they stockpile commodities there - in empty cities and buildings. It's just a different method of market manipulation.
that's for a sure a solution :P
All those Iron Man movies didn't work the price up.
http://www.wwaytv3.com/2012/08/15/robert-downey-jr-injured-iron-man-3-st...
We that expains the drop in price then.
Stand in: Tin Man.
Located in warehouse of sets for old movie, found nearby on lot.
He's a little rusty, but works cheap.
And the steel futures on Shanghai Futures Exchange hit a 2 year low today.
They probably found more garbage to blend with it to make their steel even shittier than it already is, so they don't need to buy as much.
If it's not a future then how am I supposed to short it?
thanks for the red arrow on the graph, I couldnt figure out which direction its was heading.
Nah thats just the shlong of Australia's mining magnates once they realised their profits will be slashed.
...major head and shoulders Bitchez; one more notch aaaaaaaannnnd it's gone...
That's good for me as I have a small machine shop and fabricate a lot of stuff. So all these lies actually hurt, sky high metal prices in 2011 and yet the economy sucks. What shortage? Down south they are filling out of business warehouses with steel because they have no place else to put the shit.
LIE LIE LIE.
How low can it go?
I believe the answer is zero, theoretically speaking, of course.
unless there's a bond for it...then it can go negative.
I'm curious how high it can go... Let's put it in the futures markets.
GS and JPM could rehire their fiction authors to write stories about how iron is as important as water.
speaking of manipulated. two minutes into the trading. you see the methodical pop pop pop. to all indexes.. yup. its algo day! have a nice weekend yall. good luck. like lt kilgore said in apocalypse.. someday this wars gonna end. Someday this fraud is gonna end.
south-central africa has some of the richest untapped Fe
The Earth's crust is 90% iron.
The earth's core is 90% iron. The earth's crust is mostly silica, oxygen, and aluminum. Only 5% iron.
Earth mass == 6e21 tons
earth is 32% Iron
total iron mass in Earth == 2e21 tons
current price per ton == $110
total value of Iron in Earth == 2e23 dollars
people on earth == 7e9
total value of iron in Earth, per human: $ 3e13
$30 Trn per person!
We are all rich beyond our wildest dreams!
So do I buy puts or calls?!! TELL ME!
Absolutely agree!
In addition the Earth is flowing in a Sea of Energy (Tesla, Thomas Morrey).
The problem with that though, is that, if one thing is widely abundant and easily accessible it is NOT of a value any more. This is why the CONTROL over the resources is more VALUABLE than the resources themselves.
"earth is 32% Iron"
true, but mostly in the core
This should be ringing some serious alarm bells. Especially considering the recent stories about record (and rising) stockpiles. What if China started buying only what it actually uses? The price would plummet. Yet of course the markets are marching towards post GFC highs!
Interesting. Learn't something new today and good to see a price not leveraged by the finance sector.
Is it possible that the iron ore price is not only dependent on sagging demand, but also production over-capacity? Like the Baltic Dry Index represents both overcapacity and reduced demand, so therefore weakens the correlation between global trade and the Baltic Dry Index.
Another metric price that is not completely manipulated by TPTB are the scrap prices for all metals at your local scrap yard. They have been tanking so far this year.
Less and less iron is needed - they prefer depleted uranium, aluminum, kevlar, nanoparticles...
likely "they" prefer lead and brass for the increased demand for "training" rounds
That is bad for Austrailia and Brazil..........oh oh...but maybe we can do the steel stud thing again in the USA.....homebuilding with steel....they tried that in the 80´s...didn´t catch on...
How do you think they build low income housing in the ghetto?
Low income houing in the Ghetto looks better than my middle class neighborhood. All built by publicly traded builders like Lennar.
The government wouldn't be using taxpayer dollars to buy votes and prop up select homebuilders. No, the government wouldn't do that.
no longer the plan with thousands of toxic FEMA trailer inventory to give away.
Corrugated iron sheets?
yes iron ore is not reacting to draghi and bb puts. true state of supply/demand.
General Motors Is Headed For Bankruptcy - Again
Aren't they the makers of the "mostly electric" car known as the milivolt?
That looks like quite a ride.
I saw a really good commercial for it, set to that old Doors tune.
oh the irony
Bu dump bump.
Be nice. He's only trying to show his mettle.
But I will also add....."food" will take over here....the grains.....I think we are in for an interesting few years on that...first the drought this year....less supply...panic buying...then maybe another drought next year....droughts seem to be a 5-10 year cycle
It's because GM now makes their entire vehicle line from plastic, paper pulp and shredded middle class taxpayer bone fragments.
It doesn't matter. Nothing else actually nedes to be built. Inventory was so overproduced for the past few years, it can be channel stuffed for a very long time. By the time the products make it through all the foreign divisions, the company can claim they are back in style.
The overproduced inventory is tranferred between international divisions and booked as sold each time. Even in a declining sales environment retailers can still show comp gains. It is all fake, but Wall Street doesn't care. Cheating at cards guarantees a win, until you get caught.
I've never see anything like it. You can go into a store one night and see shelves of a product. You go in the next day and all of the product is gone. The company will claim it was all sold. When? While the store was closed?
Ponzi schemes always look like good investments, even right before the end.
mate,
they got caught several and several times with the hand in the jar.............
i still see the same politcal class in the same position.
nothing really change, too many blind people still looking TV shows, sports, etc etc.
Iron ore had a tremendous run since 2008, and I mean tremendous. It rose from $14/ton to $187 from 2003 to 2011 and now back to the $120s. Prices were fairly stable until the first QE.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND - play around with the one month and one year chart here as well. BDI is also tough to manipulate... and falling fast.
anyone check BDI lately? 714 and falling fast.
On Feb 6 2012, Baltic Dry Index was 648 - about half way into the algo-bull market that ended in April.
Let's see what comes of this.
during a period where the US GDP grew 1% and europe contracted. well, US now in recession and the contraction in europe is getting worse. all this printing nonsense is a diversion to keep investors from staring at the collapsing economies, revenues, earnings, etc. by the time they wake up, the smartest people are all out (or short) and then they send in the black swan to reap the benefits.
you steal my words :P
anyway you couldnt say that better.... totally agree with your vision
your post was so two minutes ago :-).
When I saw the headline, I immediately looked up the BDI. There aren't many un-manipulated data points... but there are a few.
Here's another one... you know that whole $6 trillion in new debt since Obama took over? Well, it may surprise many to learn that relative to other presidents, spending under Obama hasn't really exploded... rather it's been mostly flat. The number that can't be manipulated (or is hard to manipulate, anyways)... revenue. At the end of the day, the gov't takes in what it takes in... and revenues are COLLAPSING (at all levels of gov't, really). Of course, this would seem like the natural response that someone from the Obama administration would point towards when the other side wants to paint him as a big spending socialist... so what gives?
It's all a scam, clearly. Nobody will talk about reality. Reality sucks.
you're right BUT:
he didnt cut expenses. yeh perhaps 2%?
it's kinda a marxist behaviour as no administration have to bother working hard to keep their work.
Fourth most common element in Earth's crust.
I like uncrustables
More deflation anyone?
The Western Australian state flag has a dirty great big Black Swan on it. Ground Zero. Ain't irony a bitch...bitchez?!
And to make matters worse, that US lap-dog, Johnie How-hard can I blow Bush, sold off 2/3rds of our fucking Gold reserves.
A more telling chart is to look at the commodity price of iron ore from 2002 to present.... the author is not looking at the "big picture".... <snark>
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=iron-ore&months=120
Good point. Perhaps whomever was hoarding iron ore since 2009 is now not using it to build steel and therefore, flooding the market? China.
Iron is truly a Barbarous Relic given the advancments in materials sciences and nanotechnology. Iron is expensive to dig, process and transport. The age of Iron ended long ago.
Worst of all, you can't eat it.
tell me, what do you use to build skyscraper?
Paper?
In August 2011 we were getting $16.30 CWT for steel/iron scrap salvaged from demo sites. Today it's $10.00.
http://www.laplaceconseil.com/LaplaceConseil/htdocs/admin/upload/File/LME%20Steel%20Globalization%20Trends.pdf
New QE then is coming...
how about the Dry Baltic Index?
Guys check this out - Mayor of Madrid publicly admits a Bailout of Spain seems inevitable
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9481569/Debt-crisis-live.html
Worked in Steel 25 years.
NEVER, EVER, ignore steel scrap and iron ore prices...
Always leads...
Another chart showing that when financial asset reckoning day comes, it will be ugly for the muppets.
Well this looks like my new product Bolloksium is just right for this market intervention.
Two parts shit, one part derivative, three parts re-hypothicated iron ore bollocks. Result?
First class product.
iron ore cannot be manipulated by trading desks?? LOL !
why then are Glencore, JPM, etc. so eagerly playing in this market??
This is another evidence that China has already hard landed at low single digit or negative real GDP contraction. Click here for other recent evidence.
BHP cant give away steelmaking coal
Balls.
"...Iron ore is one of the biggest dry bulk commodities traded and shipped. Total estimated iron ore production in 2010 was 1.7bn tonnes; seaborne trade was estimated at 1bn tonnes and worth approximately $150bn.
The growth of spot trading... "
http://www.freightinvestorservices.com/commodities/iron-ore-swaps
"The majority of traded iron ore — up to 80% — has traditionally been sold using an annual benchmark price negotiation. Spot trading so far has been predominantly in iron ore fines driven by producers dealing with trading houses and mills.
But huge swings in the delivered price and the emergence of a larger spot market for iron ore have underlined the need for a dedicated, cleared contract to manage price risk"
Just like Freight with FFA's
The 2 clearing houses;
LCH.Clearnet and SGX AsiaClear.