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Oops: ECB Says Greek PSI Participation May Fall Short, As Troika Expects Third Greek Bailout

Tyler Durden's picture


Following up on Peter's summary of the if-then conditional analyses to be conducted concurrently by various classes of Greek bondholders ahead of Thursday's PSI deadline (even as Bingham is rapidly organizing a Greek ad hoc 'holdout' committee to stop the PSI), here is some news that may obviate pretty much everything, and goes back to our warning from January, namely that despite all the sturm und drang, media fanfare, and threats from former Goldman-cum-JPM bankers, the hedge funds will 'just say no' and courtesy of basis packages (yes, the fact that Greek CDS soared to a record 76 pts upfront on Friday indicates more buyers than sellers) hold out for par recoveries in court: they would be idiots (or have a gun at their head) not to do so. To wit from Bloomberg: "Greece may fail to garner enough investors to participate in a voluntary writedown of its debt, Der Spiegel magazine reported, citing unnamed officials at the European Central Bank. A second Greek bailout is partly tied to investors’ agreeing to the writedown by a March 8 deadline." Remember that Germany has made it very, very, very explicit that if the PSI fails, the bailout is off... just as they have planned from the get go.

We will post the Spiegel article asap. And while we wait, here is something else very special from Spiegel:

Troika expects third rescue package for Greece


The billions from the second bailout did not even have arrived in Greece, since international inspectors already have a third payment required. According to SPIEGEL information is the so-called Troika believes that another 50 billion euros would be needed


The financial controllers of the EU Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund hold a third rescue package for Greece to be necessary. They quantify the extent to SPIEGEL information on up to 50 billion €.


It is not guaranteed that the country as planned as early as 2015 could again get their own loans, it said in a recent draft of the Troika report on the situation in Greece. Therefore, the country from 2015 to 2020 may be an "external financing needs of up to 50 billion euros." This analysis unpleasant apparently liked some politicians do not: The passage was deleted also under pressure from the German government.


Officially immediate concern is that Greece receives the second aid package of € partners and the International Monetary Fund, more than 130 billion euros. The Assembly has already approved the rescue package. Before the money is paid, must agree to the government in Athens, but first with the private creditors on the debt waiver. For this purpose they should exchange their Greek government bonds with new debt securities. The average debt is considered one of the most important points in the rescue plan for Greece.

More here


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Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:13 | 2222116 rehypothecator
rehypothecator's picture

The restructuring will not be televised.  

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:18 | 2222125 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

YES!! Straight to the cinema's! IMAX 3D!!!!
You'll be able to feel the heat from the exploding molotov's!

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:20 | 2222138 knukles
knukles's picture

"Citing sources at the ECB" who likewise decided not to partipate, instead stepping the fuck in front of everybody else in the priority of payments.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:37 | 2222190 BW
BW's picture

They will keep on paying minimum payments.  Their will never be a deal, just lots of money printing.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:46 | 2222219 Popo
Popo's picture

PREDICTION:   After the third bailout they'll stop numbering them and just institute a policy of "they get money as needed".



Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:53 | 2222242 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Or they never number the third one, like they did with QE.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:03 | 2222265 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

numbering your failures gets a bit masochistic after 2 or 3 in even less years

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:05 | 2222270 knukles
knukles's picture

Yeah, sorta like allowance with my kids. We no longer keep track of which week it is (except for knowing it's been many) for the only point of discussion having become the amount.

Sorta like being up to your ass in alligators, forgetting that you'd come to drain the swamp.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:40 | 2222500 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Or go with roman numerals - it worked great for the NFL

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:15 | 2222551 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

is it not obvious yet , these guys are burrying these guys with useless stuff so they can get the gold...and it doesnt matter how much you print as long as you get the gold.....whoever has the gold makes the rules....if you calculate how much they are willing to settle for to get the gold, it sure is alot more than 1800. ...all the rest is smoke and mirrors. just the path they are taking to get the fuckin least we gave the indians some fucking least they were worth something.....

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 21:23 | 2222895 number cruncher
number cruncher's picture

this was so unexpected :-p

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:36 | 2222584 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

"After the third bailout they'll stop numbering them and just institute a policy of "they get money as needed".

That's the whole point of "Euro bonds" that the EU has been pushing. It would allow an invisible way of taking money from north Europe countries and quietly fund south Europe countries. No more inconvenient transparency.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:39 | 2222356 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

"We couldn't pay you back last, who wants to buy some more??"

"Hey, what's that on your shirt?"...flink his nose.

"Hey, what's that on your shirt?"...flink his nose.

"Hey, what's that on your shirt?"...flink his nose.

"Hey, what's that on your shirt?"...flink his nose.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:22 | 2222144 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

This gives me an idea for an augmented reality/game app. It would be similar to Angry Birds; we'll call it Angry People.

You walk around wherever you want, perhaps by a Central Bank, and hold up the camera/tablet to get the building in view. Then, instead of launching birds, you launch Molotovs! Get a quality, realistic physics engine in the mix and see just how many bottles one would have to launch to burn the place to the ground.

Bonus points for hitting the parasites fleeing the flaming mess.

May 1, 2012 -

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:24 | 2222149 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And why not use Greeks in the catapults?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:46 | 2222205 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

45 sec. video.  Mel Brooks classic.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:00 | 2222262 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Classic :) was thinking the same :)

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:28 | 2222167 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

The endgame for Germany is to go back to the Mark, which will destroy the Euro, which will basically wipe away their debt (which is in the Euro). By pushing Greece out the Euro will go into a tailspin. Germany will simply say, "There is nothing we can do, we all need to go back to our own currencies." Game over for all but Germany!

If Germany tries to go back to the Mark now, they will be the scapegoat, but if they can get everyone to do it they end up with the strongest currency paying of debt denominated in Euros. Just watch actions, not words, and you can see this unfolding right before your eyes.

Remember that at the end of the day each country will act in its own best interest. They will talk about working together, but actions will speak louder than words. Germany is being patient, as it should, but there is no question they are drawing subtle lines in the sand. At some point Germany will return to the Mark because that is what is best for Germany, just like being in the Euro up to this point was best for Germany (exporting their way to wealth creation). The only way they can cash in their chips and harvest the fruits of their hard work and sacrifice is to return to the Mark.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:35 | 2222183 Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

At which point the German export machine would be crushed, and Merkel would have no chance for reelection in 18 months time. Its not as simple as this.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:41 | 2222206 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

The export machine is already crushed because the countries they export to are broke. The next 10 years will be about survival, not growth. Say hello to the the upcoming deflationary winter! And, ah, yes, acting in ones own best interest is that simple - look back through history...

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:11 | 2222280 Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

Ah, a deflationist. Of course, never let practical realities get in the way of a good dogmatic ideology.

'The export machine is already crushed because the countries they export to are broke'

This is simply rubbish. German exporters are performing very well, as long as the Euro stays weak, and will continue to do so as long as thats the case. Am pretty sure that the Germans will care more about losing their jobs if the Euro strengthens than anything else, hence my statement re timeline up to elections in September 2013.

You sir, have no clue what happens in the next 10 years, and nor does anyone else. You might be right, but considering that the world's elite are lined up against you, I severely doubt it. Biflationary outcome remains the most likely. Look it up if you need to...

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:27 | 2222321 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

I don't think it is all that difficult to see the writing on the wall. What we don't know is timing - it could take years to unfold. Central banks will try to inflate, inflation will rise, and eventually the debt will need to be dealt with, which means the defationary winter will take hold. There is far too much debt that will never be paid back - money printing will ultimately get swamped by the forces of debt reduction, which is the definition of a deflationary winter season.

This ain't rocket science, even for a Dismal Scientist! (sorry, I couldn't resist!!)

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:45 | 2222363 Dismal Scientist
Dismal Scientist's picture

Deflation can only occur if its allowed to, ie: if the inflationary policies being pursued fail. We can debate that until the end of time, and neither of us knows the answer. My original point stands re your statement that Germany wants the Mark back. I choose to disagree, the politicians cannot allow it for a while. Debt will be written off as necessary and taxes will rise, as always the public will take the pain. Its either that, or banking system nationalisation/collapse across the Eurozone.

Whichever way you look at it, prices of things you need will inflate, while prices of things you own financed by debt will deflate. This is biflation. As a Dismal Scientist, economics is my focus. Not the same thing as a rocket scientist. Keep trying ;-)

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 21:03 | 2222849 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Deflation can only occur if its allowed to, ie: if the inflationary policies being pursued fail.

What charmingly naive faith in the power of central bankers, and circular logic to boot.  A two-fer

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:45 | 2222366 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

The truth is usually in the middle. You'll probably both be right. First a deflational collapse, and then hyperinflation. Listen to Kyle Bass about this scenario for example.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:15 | 2222549 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Prices != Economic health.

Just by pushing nominal numbers up via price inflation, it doesn't mean that real economic velocity... let alone population lifestandard or purchasing power... goes up.... typically, more like the OPPOSITE.

Every time another fucking idiot, cannot distinguish nominal price development from real wealth and real velocity, i want to punch the fucking idiot in the face.

To put it really simple: in the current economic and finacial system, there never is generic inflation, nor generic deflation... there only is stagflation..... simple reason: any strong increase in nominal prices is usually the reaction to economic and financial depression, wealth transfer to the ponzi (OUT of the economy!), or both.

And as for that "german export" bullshit..... ask any generic german what he/she things about that, but be prepared to be punched in your face once again.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:07 | 2222419 Eclipse89
Eclipse89's picture


Germany won't sell one VW anywhere with a new Deutsche Mark; they need the Euro more than anyone else in this europonzi club.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:17 | 2222554 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Those "they" you're talking about, aren't even german.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:12 | 2222428 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

If Merkel gives Germans the Mark back, they will make
her queen for life.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:43 | 2222507 oogs66
oogs66's picture

They will use strong mark to import natural resources. For a country with no natural resources, how important is a weak currency?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:57 | 2222252 zilverreiger
zilverreiger's picture

Germany loses 500B they have in the ECB system the minute the euro is stopped for whatever reason.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:16 | 2222294 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

At the end of the day everyone loses. Going to the Mark will allow Germany to lose the least compared to all others. Moving into the deflationary winter season means it's all about survival, not growth - its an entirely different model.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:18 | 2222442 Jake88
Jake88's picture

Chump change.  Ctrl P. Caching.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:58 | 2222532 The Reich
The Reich's picture

It's actually 800B as Weidemann said the other Day.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:21 | 2222561 Rynak
Rynak's picture

"Germany" has 500B in the ECB system? Or do you mean german BANKS? Like, i.e. that totally insolvent Deutsche Bank, that will never ever be solvent anyways?

Germany is not a bunch of banks. Germany isn't a bunch of multinational megacorps that aren't even based in germany. Go. Fuck. Yourself. Globalist asshole. Get the fuck out of this country (or ANY country, for that matter), you parasites.

A healthy economy and finacial system isn't built on a reliance on exports, imports, or TBTF banks.... it is built on a healthy domestic market and solvent national banks.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:26 | 2222317 DosZap
DosZap's picture


I agree, and I am all for it.............Slap the NWO bitch right in the mouth.

Bring back Nationalism.

When we were still separate nation states, when Japan, Germany, etc,etc, got into an economic recession, the rest of the world did not get pneumonia.

Now when ONE is screwed up, ALL are screwed up.Used to be if America got a cold the rest of the world got pneumonia, but AT LEAST One or Two could not bring the entire world to its knees.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:03 | 2222264 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

That would guarantee failure then! I recommend they announce the results in this format:

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:12 | 2222286 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Yes it will...on TV Banzai7


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:27 | 2222323 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

hahahahaaha. Nice job WB7

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:29 | 2222326 DosZap
DosZap's picture


WONDERFUL......I think we can get you syndicated!!!

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:53 | 2222383 RSloane
RSloane's picture

We're counting on you!

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:35 | 2222581 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

OH COURSE there will be many many more bailouts. This is QE to infinity. There is nothing they can do to resolve the problem. JUST default Greece. Save yourselves!

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:13 | 2222117 prains
prains's picture

cue the drums of war / dead celebrity diversion

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:15 | 2222120 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

They might get a second chance to get the bailout....

If they can jump from Athens to Berlin in one go they get the money....
I bet Hercules could do it...l

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:15 | 2222121 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Goldman-cum-JPM bankers


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:18 | 2222131 DosZap
DosZap's picture

GREECE will DEFAULT......................period.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:34 | 2222180 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I remember I went with my wife to that movie Titanic back in the days....
After 2 minutes I said: I bet that boat is goiing to sink!

Somehow people thought that was a spoiler... History aside....

So what I mean is:


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:43 | 2222209 resurger
resurger's picture


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:54 | 2222245 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:56 | 2222247 resurger
resurger's picture


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:12 | 2222284 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

this movie is Titanic and Pirates of the Carribean ..we're actually passed the sunk phase, happened over a year ago.. we're just seeing now zombie Pirates deep underwater on the sea bed playing Pass-the-Debt-Parcel

There's no floating this boat


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:02 | 2222411 blindman
blindman's picture

the boat sinks. there, spoiled it for ya'.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:25 | 2222315 noses
noses's picture

But Greece is already spoilt. Rotten.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:21 | 2222560 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

i remember being at a local bar and some guy came back from watching the movie and said (meaning what he would have done in that situation, and what actually happened and was represented in the movie), 'that women and children first is a bunch of sht'.

at least he was honest.


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:33 | 2222139 resurger
resurger's picture


"Greece has said it would not be obliged to go through with the arrangement unless it gets 90 percent participation. If participation is below 90 percent but above 75 percent, it would consult with its public sector creditors."



Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:21 | 2222141 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

four little five little six greek bailouts

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:23 | 2222146 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Greece? Who gives a shit about them? All I know is the New Houswives of Orange Couinty is on........that's much more important...


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:27 | 2222164 Marco
Marco's picture

Just curious, what company is the AIG of the coming crisis? US banks have sold a huge amount of CDS's, but they say their net exposure is small ... so who is sitting on all the risk? Nationalized EU banks? (Easier to put the cost on the taxpayer if the bank is already nationalized to begin with.)

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:15 | 2222434 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

The coming crisis won't involve companies. It's national governments this time.

And right now, Greece is playing the AIG role. The bailouts use the Greek state as a conduit to funnel money to the Too-big-to-fail Eurozone banks. Later, it will be other countries' turn to play AIG.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:28 | 2222169 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Translation: We are still trying to come up with a good cover story for not triggering CDS

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:29 | 2222170 mrbalfour
mrbalfour's picture

According to Germany? Is a PSI failure 66 percent or 75 percent?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:30 | 2222172 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Clearly bullish for risk...

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:37 | 2222187 Mutatto
Mutatto's picture

Thinking outside the box..I have to give Greece their props! The have played the EU like a fiddle.  All that damn money, AND IT'S STILL FLOWING!  LMFAO.

Current condition suck, I know.  But all those years?  All the gov't benefits!  The Unemployment! Getting paid 14 months a year!  Not paying taxes!

And ANOTHER bailout ALREADY on the table?!?!?!  That's freaking awesome!


They are WAY to good at this game to NOT hard default and tell northern Europe to screw themselves.  And when they're done doing that,

"ya'll come on back down to Greece and see us real soon, you hear!"




Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:09 | 2222278 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Yes, you have to hand it too them...and they do ;-)

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:00 | 2222406 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Guitar Hero 3 - Devil Went Down To George (6:48)

The Devil Went Down To Georgia español (8:13)

Primus - The Devil Went Down To Georgia Rock Version (6:17)

The Devil Went Down To Georgia (4:49)

The Charlie Daniels Band - The Devil Went Down to Georgia with lyrics (3:21)

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:36 | 2222582 supafuckinmingster
supafuckinmingster's picture

"Thinking outside the box..I have to give Greece their props! The have played the EU like a fiddle.  All that damn money, AND IT'S STILL FLOWING!  LMFAO."


It's still flowing alright, but no to the average Greek Joe. Most of that money never even stops in Greece on it's way back to international creditors.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 21:48 | 2222935 Mutatto
Mutatto's picture

"Most of that money never even stops in Greece"


Oh I agree 100%.  When the Greeks see "their" money go into an escrow account, shits going to get real.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:40 | 2222195 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

No. No. No and No.

The EU is terrified of the swaps.  TERRIFIED.  Were they not terrified of them, this dance would have ended long ago.

Nothing has changed.  They are still terrified.

Here's a prediction.  If the PSI falls short, and there is insufficient debt burden unload, THE EU WILL STILL WRITE A 14 BILLION CHECK ON MARCH 20.  They will say this is not a full bailout, just a 14 billion check.

It will be "to allow time to solve the problem".  They will not let the clock strike 12 on March 20.  They will not EVER allow the clock to strike 12.  If Greece did nothing at all, cut not a single additional pension, cut not a single civil servant salary, the EU would keep writing checks.

They are that scared.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:45 | 2222216 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

They'll call it a bridge loan, like they did with the General Motors bailout during the Bush/Obama transition.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:11 | 2222282 resurger
resurger's picture


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:12 | 2222287 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

I don't think the EU can, if they do that then won't ireland, portugal, spain, and italy also stop with all the austerity non sense knowing that the check will be in the mail regardless?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:10 | 2222418 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Probably, though there will be much sprinting to a microphone to announce that Greece is a special case and a one-off situation.

But in the end, of course you're right.  Hell, you're right even if PSI goes thorugh fully.  They will demand the same debt burden relief.

In fact, in retrospect, it was DSK telling Ireland that he would let them default and achieve debt burden relief that got him framed for rape.  

Now, converting debt into a gift is the societal norm.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:18 | 2222440 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

"They" should be.


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:25 | 2222465 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

That is just rude! I'm trying to sleep. Please S.T.F.U.

Your slander against "working Americans" (snort, guffaw, slap yer knee, talk about 57 states..) is really mean. You are obviously a racist.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:38 | 2222196 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Greek default/restructuring will be a non-event.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:55 | 2222246 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Greek default will be a non event....

....that's a good one!

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 22:22 | 2223002 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Indeed. Markets will rally. No collapse.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:42 | 2222208 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for more today.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:43 | 2222212 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Der Spiegel is about as reliable as the NY Times.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:52 | 2222238 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Considering all the fake bailout rumors spread by Guardian, FT, and Dow Jones, and virtually everyone else, it is pretty safe to say that nobody is reliable anymore correct?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:56 | 2222249 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Except Michael Dingleberry.  That guy is awesome!

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:38 | 2222354 DosZap
DosZap's picture

it is pretty safe to say that nobody is reliable anymore correct?

TD, well the GREEKS are reliable,reliably, unreliable.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:27 | 2222469 RSloane
RSloane's picture

In the mainstream MSM there's nowhere to go for news that's not drenched in dogma. The best we can do is put together pieces from various news sources that make sense and try to fashion a picture of what's going on. There are some news sources outside the MSM I trust but still corroborate the substance of the story when I can. My first stop in my daily rounds of news gathering is ZH. You almost always kindly provide corroborating links to your post and I follow them. Your thread headlines are about news that matters to me, and saves me the time of looking through vats of incidental nonimportant news that sometimes drives the headlines in the MSM. For that and many other things, I thank you.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 19:02 | 2222631 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Well, err, um, yes...correct.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:47 | 2222221 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

I'm confused.  Why would the price of CDS go up when nothing can trigger a credit event?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:10 | 2222423 blindman
blindman's picture

wait a second, shouldn't the cds go down if there
is never a settlement, the product should be cheaper;
or extinct since it is a waste of money holding something
that never pays out. granted holding such a claim could justify
unheard of leverage in a particular model of fantasy which
happens to be our global monetary reality?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:48 | 2222516 oogs66
oogs66's picture

CDS will trigger

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:16 | 2222552 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

remember p.t. barnum?  would you believe that the banks selling those contracts told the counter-partys - 'hey, i've made my money, here's a chance for you to get in on it too'.  i'm locking in a gain, and you will also.

yesterday was a thread complaining about 24 year olds making 2 million per year.  well - you are now watching them trade.  the new guy at 74 was convinced that in time, he will off it to somebody else easily at 84. 

fixed it for you?  i'm serious.




Sun, 03/04/2012 - 19:05 | 2222640 blindman
blindman's picture

i wonder if cds clear in a shadow environment that no
one sees but the parties directly involved. there most
certainly must be such activity?
and then this ... via max
Is Artificial Intelligence Taking Over the Stock Market?
By Cris Sheridan03/02/2012
it is hard to see the purpose of anything anymore. the value of these things,
will we arrive at a place where no one cares the least to preserve anything
that is systemically essential? if so, then what?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 19:01 | 2222232 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Look, I'm just a guy..... And thats that

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:51 | 2222236 yogibear
yogibear's picture

A European version of Fannie Mae. Endless bailouts.Too Big To Fail to infinity.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 15:57 | 2222248 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Troika expects third rescue package for Greece

Was this extract a crap translation or written by Yoda?

Still the content is spot on.

Does anyone have an idea of the percentage of Greek bond holding held by hedge funds?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:49 | 2222519 oogs66
oogs66's picture

That seems to be the key. Only hedge funds will ultimately say no

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:05 | 2222267 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

This is a truly shocking development. These free markets are so unstable, something must be done! Somehow a better way must be forged, I suggest that capitalism has failed. World leaders must come to an agreement of some sort......The failure of fundamentalist free market capitalism threatens global stability and undermines social justice, not to mention the climate and the oceans and, and, and, well EVERYTHING!!

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:21 | 2222304 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

what do you think capitalism has to do with Govt/politics and the absolute shambles we have of bankrupt Govt after bankrupt Govt???

Go back in the history books and see how many times Govt has failed, of left and right. Govt fails far more than capitalism, in fact you might even see a correlation between unemployment, economic destruction and the size/intervention of Govt if you're really smart

the free market threatens nobodies stability, it is an entirely beneficial meeting of enterprise and consumer. It is the halls of Govt and corrupt tossers spending other peoples wealth where all the problems begin and end

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:33 | 2222340 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Oh calm down Sir.

Careful with that hair trigger.

I was just bored and did a lame 'funny'.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:03 | 2222537 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The correlation might be because it follows the expansion path taken there.

US citizens owe their success to fast expansion.

This burgeoning fast expansion was performed at the expense of taxless, stateless societies

The state is instrumental in the expansion process and grows as the expansion is performed, state and expansion feeding each other.

SO when expansion slows down, suddenly, the state is depicted as being too big even though it was the main instrument that allows the expansion scheme.

Causation is not correlation or something.

US citizen nature is eternal.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:23 | 2222460 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:12 | 2222288 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Rescue" ad infinitum is "necessary" only to maintain the hegemony of the central banks and banksters.

"Default" scuttles their plans for perpetual debt slavery of the citizens of all nations under the yoke of cronyism.

Only the naive and/or arrogant believe this is about responsibility; if responsibility were important there would have been no bailouts for the banks and corporations.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:19 | 2222300 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Like watching a crew attempt to right a sinking ship by negotiating about the definition of 'sunk'.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:29 | 2222473 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Perfect. +1

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:19 | 2222302 wimpie
wimpie's picture

On dutch Television Mr Van Rompuy says : worst for euro crisis is now over!

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:26 | 2222318 noses
noses's picture

What would you do if you had a Nazi sitting besides you? Tell the truth?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:25 | 2222464 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Shoot him. Or tell him about all that debt. I believe he doesn't know......

Poor postman. Fluffy fascist postman. Van Rompuy. The shrimp that services the squid.

You know.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:34 | 2222478 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

This fugly hack is afraid he's going to loose his job or worse.

Let's hope it's good riddance to that clown and his failed Portuguese farmer buddy soon.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:50 | 2222522 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Neville chamberlain declared peace in our time

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:27 | 2222322 devo
devo's picture

These bailouts are a way to habitualize markets so there isn't a collapse when defaults finally occur.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:34 | 2222345 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Pretty fucking smart. You might be onto something.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:50 | 2222372 devo
devo's picture

Yeah. Markets shook off MF Global, and they don't seem to care about Greece/Europe anymore. I think everyone's accepted latent risk as the new norm, with the underlying and/or subconscious belief that CBs will somehow gloss over any problems. I'm trying to figure out how this thing collapses if people are indifferent to insolvent governments and poor fundamentals. I guess once investors see corporate profit collapse, but Obama will enact a Tax Holiday/repat profits if that happens, and the government/SEC will also turn a blind eye to corporations cooking the books. So, I'm not even sure bad numbers do it in. I'm actually beginning to believe the CBs might pull this off. Of course, a loaf of bread will cost 10k, but the soft landing will have been attained.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:45 | 2222362 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Probably the markets need a pusher to move higher. Don't forget, the big refis of Italy and Spain have to pass within the next 60 days, and what's not more helpful than + markets. So, risk on, as said before. Friend Draghi did his duty and for the worst case, friend Bernanke will be giving a helping hand.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:55 | 2222389 Conman
Conman's picture

Nooooo! Please please jeebus let Greece be out of the headlines, i dont evben care if the citizens of europe sell thier first born into sex slavery to fund it. Greece is the only reason we are at 13k dow. Every "solution" was a chance for the markets to rip higher.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:56 | 2222397 AndrewCostello
AndrewCostello's picture

Bailout upon bailout.  All exhausting the worlds real resources day by day, as we continue the fraud of the unbacked currency system.  This madness will not end until the world is a ruined shell of what was once a planet, and the virus known as humanity is EVERYWHERE, revelling in it's ignorance and consumption.




Sun, 03/04/2012 - 16:59 | 2222404 Hugo Chavez
Hugo Chavez's picture

Well I am happily surprised the rule of law may prevail, unless of course this first tender offer was just to identify the holdouts so they can be threatened with tax audits and financial regulatory scrutiny.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:57 | 2222531 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

excellent point mr. chavez and very polite also, because worse is easily possible.


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:11 | 2222425 Jake88
Jake88's picture

If the banks tell Gerrmany what to do will they leave the Euro.  Can the banksters field an army? When is the world going to just take off their heads?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:26 | 2222466 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

When the banksters quit putting their own lackeys in power.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:18 | 2222443 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Print you fuckers, print!

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:21 | 2222457 ivars
ivars's picture

A scenario how things might start to unfold very soon with a critical poiint in May 2012 (EUR down, USDx up, Silver UP, DJIA UP, GOLD steady for some time (4-5 months behind silver) , EUROzone inflation-all events within 2012, relatively shortterm). But may be without specific critical event.  Some of the prediction charts show how it unravels later in late 2012-early 2013 ( stocks move down, gold up etc. ) :

And here:

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:22 | 2222458 Sid James
Sid James's picture

My bottomless pit is deeper than your bottomless pit.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:30 | 2222477 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Ohh yah,
how many zeros do you have behind your significant digit?

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 17:32 | 2222484 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Oh my.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:08 | 2222540 alfa
alfa's picture
The Greek government implements a plan B ... The PSI + will not be achieved voluntarily, but will reach the 66.66% and will be mobilized CACs for GR bonds of 177.4 billion - On Friday, March 9, Greece on credit event, will be paid the CDS ...

On Friday, March 9, Greece will be found under a credit event will be certified credit event in Greece and the CDS will be paid (cds triggers) provided by Greece on March 7 at 4 Central Europe did not decide to extend the process of PSI +.
Based on reliable Greek government source which came in contact seems to have taken final decisions on the fate of Greece and PSI + participation of individuals in the Greek debt rescheduling. The same source, however, refused to comment on information already present namely that participation will move between 68% and 72% indicating that there can not be estimated.
The ideal scenario would be participation in the PSI + to reach 90% and the process to succeed, but that does not seem possible.

Information transmitted from a very reliable source and the final draft is based and the data and processes that were over the weekend.
The Greek government in the process of focusing PSI + 177.4 billion in Greek bonds bearing ISIN GR and the ISIN XS and loans to the Greek government is a clearer picture of the evolution of participation.
Based on proprietary information the goal is to participate in the bonds ISIN GR be minimum 119 billion that is to catch the target of 67% in order to activate the CACs.
Note that the CACs will be activated only when participation in ISIN GR will exceed 66.66%.
From the plans elaborated by the Greek government has already shown that activated the plan B which contains the following 6 parameters
Based on the process until March 7 at 4 Central Europe the whole process can be revoked.
The Greek state could revoke the whole process of PSI + to 7 March.
On March 8 will complete the bid process unless there is an extension and this will depend on participation.

The parameters

1) Participation in the PSI + will not be indicated and the process katapeftei. H rearrangement of the Greek debt can not be voluntary.
2) But participation in bonds ISIN GR exceeds 66.66% and by law no longer apply collective action clauses that would make the mandatory PSI + for those who did not participate. Please note that those who did not participate will suffer the same consequences as those who volunteered.
3) Participation in Greek ISIN XS bonds of 18 billion euros in loans to the Greek government of 7.9 billion would be appropriate. Eg XS bonds amounting to 18 billion goal is to assemble the 3/4 that at least 13.5 billion.
Loans to the public is excluded the title of National Bank about 5.5 billion euros (the old swaps of Goldman Sachs) as a derivative product and PSI + are not involved derivatives.
4) Individuals in Greece without exception they have purchased bonds primarily or secondarily, to participate in PSI +. This is final. But they will be compensated at a later stage by the Greek state.
5) By enabling collective action clauses CACs the Greek government will force the bondholders who did not participate in the process other than those exempted longer required to participate.
H EKT, the national central banks, the EIB also excluded from the CACs as the Japanese Samurai bond bonds governed by Japanese laws and local have significant safeguards.
6) The ISDA Friday, March 9 will be required to certify credit event for Greece because of activation of CACs.
The Greek CDS totaling 3.2 to 3.3 billion U.S. dollars will be paid or wholly or partially.
Based on government source revealed that the project goal is through the CACs to participate universally hold Greek bonds to meet the hardline countries as Germany, Holland and others.
With the PSI + CACs will not go voluntarily but mandatory, but will proceed.
If you still hope not achieved as a minimum target of 119 billion euros in participation bonds ISIN GR amounting to 177.4 billion PSI + then the whole process as will be canceled and the Greek state will necessarily proceed in a violent haircut 90% for all with large impact on the banking system in Europe, the national economy. It is a real tragedy. This is the plan C that do not wish to put the Greek state.

The procedures

With the adviser Lazard and managers completing the Deutsche bank and HSBC and the trustees of Wilmington Trust, started and completed the bid invitation on March 8 but with the prospect of expansion of the PSI + Greek debt rescheduling with the involvement of individuals.
Based on the process until March 7 at 4 Central Europe the whole process can be revoked.
The Greek state could revoke the whole process of PSI + to 7 March.
On March 8 will complete the bid process unless there is an extension and this will depend on participation.
Along directly to the Greek government granted 30 billion loan as a convention facility to fund part of fungible securities.
On 12 March has been designated the settlement date of eligible securities.
Between 27 and 29 March for a meeting of holders - bondholders Greek non-euro bonds issued.
On April 11 will be the settlement of foreign securities.
In the new bonds will be issued nominal value to 70 billion euro will bear different interest rates based on their liktotita.
Between 2013 and 2015 the rate of 2% between 2016 and 2020 to 3% in 2021 to 3.65% in 2022 and then to 4.30%.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:24 | 2222565 iLoveMisesToPieces
iLoveMisesToPieces's picture

End game: The US/EU continues to play musical ponzi chairs holding meetings and coming up with new and exciting names for printing money because they're all locked in the room with the guy that lost the pin on the grenade and have to take turns covering the hole.  Mean while, perpetual money printing continues to drive up the price of oil, food and all other necessities causing peasants to riot.  China/USSR/Iran/?? release a gold backed currency to begin trading oil.  Gold skyrockets, all the dollars come back home with a quickness leading to rapid hyperinflation.  I think the oligarchy will just take the other side of the trade because even they're smart enough to understand if you blow the entire world up it's hard to find new sheeple for the ponzi economy.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 18:53 | 2222611 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Plain fact: the US and UK financial monsters and their press mates have failed to crash the euro.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 22:04 | 2222965 mendigo
mendigo's picture

I think you may have a point.

It seems that in spite of arguments to the contrary, things are progressing to plan.

Debt Negotiations


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 19:34 | 2222716 Cyberg
Cyberg's picture



'we'll loan you some money,as soon as we borrow it!

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 19:41 | 2222718 Cyberg
Cyberg's picture




Sun, 03/04/2012 - 20:02 | 2222753 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I'm changing the channel im tired of this soapopera.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 20:19 | 2222784 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bernanke, the Fed and ECB  will solve everything with $20/gal gas and a $10.00 for a loaf of bread will solve everything. Time before the jump in gun and ammo prices again.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 21:00 | 2222842 Isherwood
Isherwood's picture

I just bought $36,000 worth of physical gold and silver... Someone please tell me I am doing the right thing....

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 23:26 | 2223130 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

If that represents 10% of your assets you're definitely doing the right thing.

If that represents 100% of your assets you're definitely NOT doing the right thing.

Sun, 03/04/2012 - 23:57 | 2223191 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

if that represents 10%, great start!

if that represents 100%. great finish!

i hope you know how to get some cash and food for yourself

L0L!!!  somehow, i think you might!


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 22:19 | 2222993 cnhedge
cnhedge's picture

the psi will work with cac.


Sun, 03/04/2012 - 23:04 | 2223088 chump666
chump666's picture
  • net EUR shorts fell from 142,159 contracts to 109,674 

Hedge funds want payback.  I hope they get it.  This market needs to be purged and flushed out.

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 01:25 | 2223177 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

this is just the old time-delayed pyramid bailout ponzi scheme isn't it?  avec lesZombeeeeZ?

CTRL+P + "promises" = we are here

hold everything, now, we'll get this all smoothed out after the third clown-car full of finiMinis does its thing!

i would imagine they can print enough, somewhere, to keep the interest payments going for at least another decade or so, though!  portugal, too! 

and of course, everyone is chockFull0'promise! 

not to mention the markets seem screwed down tight!  i think the banksters have everything on autoPilot, here;   we'll call this the NFN:  newFuckingNormal.  OMG!  they killed goldie!

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 03:43 | 2223376 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Nothing will happen this week. Just more media spin press conferance, then they'll go back to  playing Mass Effect 3 which comes out monday.

The bigger question is: what game will come out next week to put reality off for another 7 days?. 

Mon, 03/05/2012 - 04:16 | 2223384 Olympia
Olympia's picture

Global Debt Crisis

The greatest private fraud of human history.
Who are the great fraudsters who are becoming the murderers of the human kind? How does the economy "illness" threaten Democracy and the freedom of people?
By knowing what happened in indebted Greece, where loan sharks created “bubbles” and the current inhuman debt, one can understand the inhuman plan in total ...understand where this plan started just to bring all states at the same end ...understand how this type of plans are established...


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