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Open Thread: 2011 Closes....Down
With the S&P 500 cash index closing 2011 down for the year (admittedly down 0.003181% is just 0.003181%, but it is also down), we look across asset classes and notable markets as we reflect on an increasingly intervention-driven and gap-heavy uber correlated global investing framework. UK Gilts, 10Y Treasuries, Gold, and Oil outperformed (rebased to USD terms) while Greek bonds, Copper, Emerging Market stocks, and Asia Ex-Japan stocks underperformed. The Dollar closed almost 1% higher on the year, the EUR down 2.6% versus the USD as the CRB Commodity Index closed -6.67% for the year. Japanese stocks and bonds had a tough year. US investment grade bonds outperformed high yield bonds. There is much to discuss and we open the thread for any and all discussions...
Global markets compared...(click to enlarge)...
An important grouping that many paid attention to is Gold vs TSYs vs Stocks...
Comparing Gold to other commodities...
Global Stock Indices...YTD performance...
While the S&P managed to close marginally down for the year, the sectors' performance was very diverse...
FX markets saw plenty of vol but ended with convergence as the all-powerful USD moved everything - except for the JPY which gained 8.1% YTD (and obviously swissy had the craziest of runs in the year)...
European AAA Sovereign spreads exploded and dispersed as clearly France and Austria are being priced 'differently'...

And evidently the desperate need for USD liquidity is highlighted best with the now ubiquitous EUR-USD basis swap spread...

Of course comparing VIX (actually the 3rd month VIX futures contract here) with implied correlation gives us a sense for the demand for macro protection versus micro protection...its clear that while VIX has dropped recently (as is its tendency at year-end) it is considerably elevated from a year ago and implied correlation is hugely higher signaling a demand for protection remains high as fear is still here.
but maybe security-of-the-year goes to...BTPs - certainly as much a pivot trade as any other in the latter half of the year...
But we end with the clear message that we discussed many times - the market is broken - it broke when S&P downgraded the USA and made the impossible possible...
The explosion of volatility in the financials post the USA downgrade, coupled with the markets absolute schizophrenia (risk-on / risk-off) are very clear when pictured above and below...
The S&P 500 traveled a marvelous 3240 total points close to close while amassing the 0.003181% loss it achieved on the year...
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Copper? I would take a long position for the next year. Not sure I can say why .....
It leaves less deposits in lands and grooves.
Jesus... ain't a party without Cursive... or Rocky... or CD.... or wait,.... what's his name... c..h..e..e..k..y ahhh fuck it. Life moves forward. Happy new year bitchez. I hope this is the year we see the global banking cabal/ponzi have an epic fail. Cheers!
The S&P 500 traveled a marvelous 3240 total points close to close while amassing the 0.003181% loss it achieved on the year...
You see they need to jack things up in order to jack things down...You get my drift? They can't manipulate the system and suck their share if it doesn't flucuate. It's all computer controlled now, while the SP stayed the same, most 401K'ers lost another 20% . They are raping America blind with their algo tricks and manipulation. There is no market, it's their market...PERIOD. The vultures are pecking your carcass clean, they will not stop until every last piece of flesh is gone... Get out while you can at any cost... God help us...
My background music contribution to the open thread from the legendary progressive/mathcore masters Between the Buried and Me:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PvTt8QYr_c
Happy New year, Tyler collective and ZH community!
With all the bull coming out of politicians all over, scalpers have had a good year. As the Eurocrats polish the Euro turd, we scalp in and when the pumping stops (as they head off for their boozey long lunches) we short the bugger. Equities still silly highs and plenty of scope for some scalps to swings, just give the central bankers enough rope....
Happy days and a yada yada 2012.
Tradeconscious
I just went to take a look at this today: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/2011-whats-coming
GoOd work Bruce, can we run this item again?
2012 : Out of the frying pan into the fire!
Better top up on the bubbly tonight! Happy new .....well you know what I mean, even if its hard to believe, I'll say it : YEARRRRRRR!!!!!
Stocks DOWN : despite Benny pumping them with $Billions of dopium
Gold UP : despite Central bwankers flogging paper Gold all year to suppress/rig prices
Benny huffs and Trichet/Dracula puffs yet still their Nirvana is ever further away, 10 years and counting...
Think on that for a Happy New Year All
It would have been a lot tougher in 2011 if it weren't for the read, and reads from ZH.
Looking forward to 2012, with reads from the same bunch of intellectuals following the Tylers.
2.5 hours to 2012 where I am ...
I predict for 2012 that I won't be able to stop writing 2011 on every form I sign, for about 3 weeks.
Thank you Tyler (plural), for what you do.
Front-running Ponzi high frequency traders (makes no sense) made a killing, the rest of us collected a very small dividend yield, THANK YOU VERY MUCH MR. BERNANKE!
Welcome to 2012 where we party like it's 1999, just before the .com bubble burst (we are in for more) that got all this fun rolling.
And a big Bronx Cheer to you Maestro, it's ultimately on you.
Happy New Year to everyone else.
stuxnet like herpes simplex 10?
http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-12-kaspersky-team-reveals-stuxnet-famil...
Many thanks to all the the article and information contributors on here,I for one are grateful for a truthful version of the Bullshit which passes for a modern trustworthy,honest and reliable ??????? modern ?????? financial system.All the bet for 2012 and keep on stackin.
Are your balls made of gold?
Are they hard and cold?
Would you be millionaire,
If they ever were sold?
Do they make a lovely clamor,
When you hit them with a hammer?
Are your balls made of gold?
thank you ZH. Words cant say enough how you make my life funnier with your analysis. ps: sometimes I skip directly to comments section after the headline...this community is real treasure. Se you in 2012 hopefully.
Cheers everyone, all the best in 2012.
Bunker is locked, slef destruct system activated, PM's all "lost at sea" last week.
I'm now off to Edinburgh now to get pished and cheer in 2012.
Fuck the TBTF mafia and fuck the Mayans.
Keep on stakin.
All the best to the ZH crowd; it has been real in 2011 and will get more real in 2012. So far I have passed out 30 Ron Paul copper rounds, I intend to up that to 100 in January, spreading the word. Results so far have been postive. My resolution is to purchase more Au & Ag, hopefully my rowboat won't capsize so much in the Ohio river causing me to lose my stash at the bottom of the river.
Take care and stay safe on New Year's Eve.
Record Liquidity Swaps to close out the year!
http://www.calibratedconfidence.com/2011/12/ecb-swap-lines-from-frbny-skyrocket.html
Since it's only a matter of time before the Euro goes tits up, and WW III ensues.. (because we all know by now that the destruction of the EURO = WWIII on the continant), I figured I'd take the family to Italy skiing before the borders close and the tanks start rolling. Anyways, we are up in the Valle d'Aosta on the Italian French border, overlooking the quite impressive Monte Bianco (that's Mont-Blac for all you Francophiles). This is an annual ski vacation, and since we live on the continant, we try to ski a different venue each year.
But this year is different. The most striking thing about this year, even more than the scenary, is the lack of bodies on the pista's (piste's por la Fancophiles). I have yet to wait in line for a chairlift. What's more, I have yet to sit on a chairlift with anyone else while going up. Yes, I had to ride with some Europeans (they call themselves Italians around here) in the gondola, but there was plenty of elbow room for all. Coming down the mountain a couple of days ago, I did not see a soul on a trail that was the main artery to the mountain base from say 6500ft to 4900ft. And this is the week between Christmas and New Year's ! Oh and one other thing, I have yet to meet a foreigner here. Usually the Italian Alphs are crawling with Brits and Germans at this time of year.
So what's to be made of the above. First of all, the prices. Ridiculous as usual. But that's nothing new. The usual topic of conversation among the Brits that I meet at these resorts is the prices and how the locals can afford to live here. And that's coming from the Brits, which is a bit rich, as they themselves would say:) But like I said earlier, this year is different. No Brits or any other foreigners for that matter. And I guess that's my point. The European experiment is all burned out when the Europeans can't afford to pay EUR4 for a slice of mediocre pizza, or EUR150 for a dinner for three (ok bottle of wine, no starters, just main course and dessert). To paraphrase the Rev. J.Wright on this one, the Eurochickens have come home to roost.
Thought I would cheer everyone up for 2012: 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals said that 2008's Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which granted telecommunications companies immunity to aiding the National Security Agency (NSA) with wiretapping efforts, is constitutional. The three judge panel upheld a lower court ruling. The appeal was a consolidation of 33 separate lawsuits filed against telecommunications companies on behalf of their customers.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/appeals-court-revives-telecom-cus...
http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/12/dragnet-surveillance-case/
Ehjoy your slavery.
May the
May the road rise up to meet you.
May the wind be always at your back.
May the sun shine warm upon your face;
the rains fall soft upon your fields and until we meet again,
may God hold you in the palm of His hand.
odds that tptb will lose their grip and blow it? double or nothing? Well, were waiting...
keep stacking in 2012, keep good time, keep up the pressure.
http://74.6.238.254/search/srpcache?ei=UTF-8&p=Well%2C+were+waiting%2C+5...
"UK Gilts, 10Y Treasuries, Gold, and Oil outperformed..."
That about sums it up!
From: http://brotherjohnf.com/
TPTB ARE SCREAMING--GET OUT OF PAPER!
On Monday October 31, 2011, MF Global filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. All customer funds and positions were frozen immediately. To this day, customers of this futures brokerage are still waiting for their “segregated” funds to be returned. Neither the CME group or the CFTC jumped in to backstop the monies, even though they had plenty of funding to do so. It means:
"All paper can go to zero in an instant!"
"No customer brokerage funds are safe from outright theft!
Sheep. Are you listening to the message the elites are screaming at you?"
I was surprised to read Bill Fleckenstein had substanbtial monies in MFGlobal...all frozen now.
It would be nice if Tyler et al would make a new years resolution to stop posting phoenix capital self blog pimping articles. The content is great but I cant stand it when that phoenix guy starts pimping his paysite. I imagine him wearing a fur coat while he talks...
ooh and while were at it, maybe reggie can take his brilliance and just hire an editor. The man is a genius, but I need to reread his articles several times in order to pick out what is new information and what is indirectly quoted from the last article he put up.
/end rant
I second this proposal
2011 had one win for the little guy. The demise of MERS ( the attempt by the banks at ownership of every encumbered property in the US as was done with all stock certificates). Had MERS succeeded, the Ponzi could have continued for a long time. MERS name on almost all deeds in the US was the last possible real asset that could be hypothocated.
Hopefully 2012 will bring the realisation that if YOUR NAME ain't on YOUR ASSETS they will be frontrun by TPTB, with no skin in the game, for their own incidious purpose.
I believe the Internet Killswitch is key to the legal ownership of all assets. Shut it down and TPTB own everything. If your name ain't on it you don't own it.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/09/625726/-WHO-REALLY-OWNS-YOUR-MONEY-Part-1:-The-DTCC
Have a good one, all.
Thanks to ZH, Tyler(s), and everyone on here. May the next year fulfill our dreams!!! here is some lyrics to sum up what i learned here... apologies for formatting...
"Dr. Jekyll has a new face
Hiding in plane sight
On every dollar bill, on every coin you see
Of these here united states
Surreptitiously usurping
Power from the people
Maliciously manipulates
Politicos while they sleepwalk
Nineteen hundred and thirteen
Wilson, with chagrin, signs
the ominous eponymous bill,
a back door for the red shield
The wolves gathered round
Laughing at their prey
Relying on the ignorance
Of trust in nation state
The wolves gathered round
Laughing as they know
Their machinations are alluring
He comes with many clothes
Dr. Jekyll has a new face
A board room and a suit
A private institution
With a mission at its root
Serve the master of true evil
The greed of a haughty few
Lies disguise lies
Until it’s all obscure
Lessons learned from Rome
Passed through the British throne
Subtle and evolving
The bankers take control
They stole it all
Again, again
They steal it all
Up unto this day
They stole it all
And we let them
They steal it all
We give it all away
They stole it all
Ignore them, no matter what they do.
The parasite will wither
Once the host begins anew"
Obama's "War On Freedom" final year ! War on Murdoch's "Opposition Press" ! Wicked Leaks gets a pass ! Great year for my Jews ! Tourism up ! Palestinians promise to make the Holy Land a Mecca II.....Christians and Jews not welcome under penalty of beheading ! Christian and Jewish tourism to Mecca still negligible ! Bush's "War On Terrorism" on full auto-pilot ! Iran flailing itself with chains as mysterious explosions put nuclear weapon development on hold ! Putin getting nervous ! North Koreans suffer another cold and hungry and cruel and terrifying Winter ! Looking forward to Spring's forced labor brigade outings with the family ! Syrians preparing for a bloody Spring ! Sunnis and Shiites murdering each other while shouting Allah Akbar ! Michelle Obama's African Tour to Nigeria, Zimbabwe and Kinshasha on indefinite hold ! OWS goes no where ! 15% of World population living in luxury as blood sucking, parasite Socialist bureaucrats and their minions and families ! A privileged class only Socialism could create ! Down with these Tyrants ! Teachers, police, fire fighters, medical emergency workers, librarians, environmental warriors and many other darlings of the left participating fully in the blood feast of the hyenas ! They are the "French Aristocrats" of the Socialist Worldwide State !" When we recognize this blood sucking elite.....then maybe we can do something about them ! "I have a dream, too !"....Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Happy New Year !
I second this proposal
taken out as already posted before (mh505)
A Cornell University professor wrote a year end blog. He had lots to say on different issues. This is what he said about Zero Hedge. I thought it was worth noting:
The Durden Octuplets, Zero Hedge. Another hat tip to
the multiple personalities at Zero Hedge. These guys are miles ahead of
the mainstream media, offering a unique window into the world of
finance and politics—a must-track site for all
Well done Zero Hedge!
bk
The link to the blog:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/2011-year-review-david-collum/67586?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ChrisMartensonBlogs+%28Chris+Martenson+Blogs%29
And a Well Done to you too Bruce. Thanks for all your thoughts.
Thanks Bruce for your informative posts this year and all of your hard work as a contributor to this site...Happy 2012!
He comments on ZH regularly. His ZH monicker is Thomas.
Happy New Year ZH. Thank you all for helping me to grow. It hurt a lot. I got pissed, I got drunk, and I will never be the same. I used cheap words to lash out and knash my teeth, but doing so was just a drug in and of itself.
I am sad about the truth but I also love it very much because I need real.
I'm putting up a link that I really find key to understanding what is being done to US.
Love you all. Even the ones I think are dumb.
Going back to my Granddaughter now.
Good Lord, Should I feel happy for her? I want to with all that I am.
http://www.real-science.com/below350-org
If only one other person spends the (relatively) short time to digest this link, then at least one other person will step out of the cave.
LOVE YA ALL!
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Excellent link, ISEEIT. Happy New Year.
Though I rarely make comments ~ I would like to thank the Tylers and all contributing posters for a very enlightening, often infuriating year of thought provoking commentaries. After 50+ years of formal indoctrination I have often mull over a nice glass of rum and coke .... ahh, yes...it was quite by happenstance that I wandered into the halls of ZH where I ingested the red pill and began receiving a true education in realities where the puzzle pieces actually fit together.
I often send those near to me to ZH when I get the creepy feeling they are doubting my sanity. How else can I explain how a normal, middle-class, bobblehead suburbanite mother became what appears to be a paranoid, gun toting, silver stacking, prepping granny with a little sardonic smile on my face.
"I know *exactly* what you mean. Let me tell you why you're here. You're here because you know something. What you know you can't explain, but you feel it. You've felt it your entire life, that there's something wrong with the world. You don't know what it is, but it's there, like a splinter in your mind, driving you mad. It is this feeling that has brought you to me. Do you know what I'm talking about?" ~ Morpheus
Carry on warriors - eyes wide awake in 2012 ~..~
There is something wrong with this world but Jesus is coming back to fix all that AMEN!
"the market is broken-it broke when S & P downgraded the USA":
The market was broken long before that....just mostly nobody knew it. Now we know it.
Happy New Year, Everybody! See you in the FEMA camp.
Capitalism, if we ever get serious about using it, produces a bell curve of economic wealth distribution that reflects the reality of the human condition......some give more than others ! Socialism only distorts the natural curve in hideous ways.......rewarding TSA agents and the "Brown Shirt" crowd ! The "Crystal Night" crowd of National Socialism ! We need some "Crystal Day Workers" like Tim McVeigh and Anders Braevik to take on the "Evil Empire" of the pampered "Bureaucratic Brahmins" ! It's New Year in Samoa ! So......Monedas 2012 Comedy Jihad Crosses Into The New Year !
Braevik.........vote green arrow Obama.........vote red arrow Instant Poll
Happy New Year all. Hold onto your hats... I have a feeling 2012 is going to be a bumby ride.
7 Wonders of The World:
I wonder why some candidate doesn't run on the promise to build a self sustaining economy in the US and withdraw from the global economy at least in part? Everyone who wants a job would have one.
I wonder why some political types don't push for a more Parliamentary government, so guys like Ron Paul could have a say in the outcome?
I wonder why the media doesn't care what G W Bush is doing?
I wonder why the international shippers still have no system of package security? Why don't the Taliban just Fed Ex it in?
I wonder why people don't like Mexicans. The Fundamentalists don't like them because they're Catholic. The Unions don't like them because they want jobs. The Right Wing doesn't like them because they're Marxist. The middle class doesn't like them because they're poor but they seem pretty happy anyway.
I wonder which will be the first state to secede from the union? Hawaii?
I wonder how long it will take for the NFL to change to flag football rules? I wonder how long before the NBA becomes a contact sport?
I wonder whatever happened to single stock futures?
Why the Fed is Committed to Inflation
http://www.coveringdelta.com/2011/03/24/why-the-fed-is-committed-to-inflation/.
In point of fact, after the passage of the 1913 Federal Reserve Act, Paul Warburg, widely recognized as the “father” of the Federal Reserve System (Warburg was very close to the Rothschilds and was brought to the United States in part because of his intricate knowledge and understanding of the type of central banking practiced in Germany and England, on which the new American system was to be closely modeled), began a long process of lobbying the smaller banks around the country to join the new Federal Reserve System. You see, membership was, and still is for state banks, optional. At the time, however, there was great hesitancy on the part of less well-connected and influential banks to join the new system for fear that they would eventually be bullied around and even swallowed up by the larger banks. So, how did Warburg eventually convince them to join? Easy, by promising them the prospect of profits the likes of which they could scarcely imagine or even believe…
The gist of Warburg’s sell to the smaller banks rested on the reality that, functioning in a free market, these banks were constrained in how much credit they could create through fractional reserve lending due to the ever-present potential for a bank run. The number of loans that they could pyramid on top of their existing deposit base – i.e. the amount of money that they could create out of thin air – was limited. Joining the Federal Reserve System however, would not only provide a central backstop and “lender of last resort” for these banks, but more importantly, it would unify all the pools of money that existed in dispersed, regional waterholes into one giant sea of capital. This is the origin of what is now known as the federal funds or inter-bank lending market, but which, at the time, was referred to as the market for bankers’ acceptances. It is this unified pool of money that all participating banks can access in order to meet their short-term liquidity needs, and it is here where the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducts its open market operations (OMO), swimming about like a Great White shark amongst a sea of blue fish.
@ blindman, I've been drinking and reading most of this afternoon and I can't remember where I acquired this link to a Garet Garrett essay from 1952, it may very well have been from your source, if so, thank you, but here it is: https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:Lrzl9T5vJj4J:mises.org/journals/lar/pdfs/2_1/2_1_7.pdf+garrett+%22rise+of+empire%22&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjfNwWQmUiXCF9yPTli6IQ7VImzT-gz1v4oggszFTeCiJUhNYWRnCf2jCwJloulD-yMPHD5LHMjy6gZBdmUjy9tRrIUUmpvG4zDr0OHu68FGoOilFDfyvM4FPs5tbdY9SkZY4no&sig=AHIEtbSJCBy-5bSexAFn4X-NhL0efSmE-g Ron Paul 2012
Excellent link, thank you.
amazing, some things never change?
Red Money in 2012
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/red-money-conspiracy-theory-11
2012 will have a "Black Swan Event" that will catch all off guard. Be prepared.
Thanks for a great year Tyler and all ZH friends. Special thanks to the ZH reader who mentioned comparesilverprices.com and comparegoldprices.com. Both saved me some good money this year. 2012 will be Big Fun!
Happy New year!!
The best prayer for 2012: "Lord, deliver us from evil!"
I like how Ann Barnhardt begins her daily blog:
Starting Saturday Night Off Right Posted by Ann Barnhardt - December 31, AD 2011 9:09 PM MST † Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And FORGIVE US OUR TRESPASSES, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but DELIVER US FROM EVIL.For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen †
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