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In Order To Be Saved, Spain And Italy Must First Be Destroyed

Tyler Durden's picture





 

There has been much confusion over last week's remarks by Mario Draghi, with the prevailing narrative being that the market first got what Draghi meant wrong (when it plunged), then right (when it soared). The confusion is further granulated by attempts to explain what was merely a desperate attempt at delaying a decision for action, which was inevitable considering the now open opposition by Buba's Weidmann, into a formal and planned plotline: "Inverse Twist" or other such technical jargon is what we have seen floating around. The reality is that, just like all other central bankers, Draghi did what he does best: use big words and threats of action in hope it will buy him a few extra days of time. The reality is also that, just like when the LTRO was announced, the market did get it right initially, when peripheral bonds plunged, and got it wrong over the subsequent 3 months when bond prices rose, only to collapse to new lows (and in the case of Spain - record high yields as of two weeks ago). Back then, the ECB merely bought a few months time with its transitory intervention. This time it has at best bought a few days with the lack of any actual action. And yet, Draghi did leave a way out, for at least another brief respite (where unless Europe expands the available bailout machinery yet again, the respite will have an even briefer half life than that from the LTROs). The way out is simple, and in order to avoid any confusion, we will use an allegory from the movie Batman: Spain and Italy can be saved. But first they must be destroyed.

Why? Because the market may or may note have gotten the desired knee jerk response right - higher - eventually, but what it got absolutely wrong is the fact that in the new normal, attempts to front-run politicians, whose motivations are entirely different from those of the market, are always and without fail self-defeating. In other words, by sending the Spanish and Italian curve short-ends soaring (and yields tumbling), the market just made the only catalyst that would validate the kind of response to Draghi's comment that we witnessed in a few short trading hours, meaningless.

We have already explained why on numerous occasions, so instead we will hand it over to Citi's head Euroearea economist Jurgen Michels, who explains it so simply, even a caveman vacuum tube can get it:

In order to activate the ECB’s new facility, Spain and Italy have to ask the EFSF for assistance, and the Eurogroup (backed by the German parliament) has to approve the request....Mr. Draghi was very explicit in respect to the conditions for ECB assistance for governments in bond markets, but Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy and Italian PM Mario Monti ignored that part of the ECB statement.

 

While Mr. Monti, as before, left open whether Italy would requeEFSF/ESM assistance, Mr. Rajoy, also in line with previous statements, declined tostate that Spain would ask for such assistance.

 

To us, this is another example of the Spanish government’s poor communication, and highlights the need to restore credibility by getting external monitoring (at least from the EU Commission and the ECB, probably with technical assistance from the IMF).  Given the strong resistance of the Spanish government to asking the EFSF/ESM to activate the primary market purchase facility — although a Memorandum of Understanding regarding the required conditionality is already available with the existing bank support programme — and with no planned issuance in coming weeks, we do not expect that Spain will ask for assistance in August.

 

Forced by a further increase in its funding costs, we expect the Spanish government to make a U-turn and to ask for assistance during September.

And what is true for Spain, is true for its far bigger, and just as financially distressed cousin, Italy.

Therein lies the rub: by pushing the funding costs on the short-end far cheaper, both Rajoy and Monti are now certain to not even consider asking for a bailout - after all the market just validated their failed policies (or so they think)! To the career politician and unappointed technocrat, instead of having to ask for aid, the market's response is one which precludes said aid request... Until, at least such time as the market realizes it was once again manipulated by politicians.

What happens then is the same rinse-repeat cycle we have grown to hate and loathe so well: the Spanish and Italian curves go bidless, in the process inverting once again, followed by the same summit/ECB announcement response with promises that both Spain and Italy will demand a bailout, sending bonds soaring, and making a bailout demand unnecessary.

Of course, this Catch 22 of confounding cause and event can continue seemingly indefinitely, although in reality it can't. Because fundamentally what the bond market does is keep sovereigns "honest" - just as Schauble said a week ago, Spanish yields at 7% are not the end of the world - instead what they are is a signal to the country to get its spending in control in order to reduce its deficit, and fundamentally get its house in order - yes, that means getting government spending to a sustainable level and firing hundreds of thousands of workers, as well as probably raising taxes even more. It also means pain all around, but the pain is inevitable and will only be worse the longer reality is denied.

Thus all the ECB does, with every incremental attempt to manipulate the bond curve, is delay the day when the inevitable hard choices and difficult decisions have to be made. In the process, the deficit gets bigger and bigger, even as the country can still continue to fund itself at seemingly sustainable rates (very soon both Italy and Spain will be forced to keep rolling its debt every several months as anything beyond Bills will be trading at ridiculous rates, while the short-end will be anchored by fears of more brutal Draghi rhetoric). All this comes to a head eventually when the spread between reality and central bank ivory towers becomes so wide not even the most Stockholm Syndrome-addled bond "vigilantes" can continue to ignore it any longer.

As noted previously, there is a simple loophole: both Spain and Italy request a formal bailout, i.e. Gotham Burns. Here is how Citi views this outcome:

"In order to make it politically digestible, the request for EFSF/ESM aid might come together with a cabinet re-shuffle."

Here we completely disagree - the issue is that by formally admitting failure, it means the end for the current administrations, and a career end of many politicians, for whom preserving their jobs is a matter of survival. It also means civil unrest and disobedience, as it means the ascent of the Troika (and implicitly Germany) to the highest level of government control; what it means to the local citizens is one simple thing: relinquishing sovereign control to an external presence. For those who are unfamiliar with European history, the best laid plans which have as their weakest link the assumption that any proud people will willingly cede to foreign control, always are doomed to failure.

Yet this is precisely what the bond market assumed when it sent Spanish and Italian bond yields plunging in the past week.

We give what is left of the market a few more days before the delayed correct re-reaction once again establishes itself, and the push for a formal bailout leads to curve inversion all over again, only this time more jawboning will not be enough, and neither will be Draghi's solemn invocation to "believe him." That bridge has now been burned.

* * *

Finally it is not just the above logic that leads us to this belief. The previously mentioned Jurgen Michels from Citi lays out all the other "weakest links" in what Draghi may or may not have said.

Below we present Michels' latest musings on why, much to the chagrin of all those who are long peripheral bonds on hope and prayer, the market's initial selloff reaction to the Draghi statement was in fact the correct one.

From Citi:

Uncertainty about ECB Measures and Activation of EFSF/ESM Support Mechanism

 

ECB Council supports Draghi’s statement on irreversibility of the euro...

 

By saying that “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough,” in his speech in London on July 261, Mario Draghi created a big market rally and puzzled many observers, including us, about the reasons for that speech. In the ECB press conference, he said that he deliberately used the strong wording to highlight the irreversibility of the euro and added that “there was not one word [in the London speech] that has not been discussed with the Council before”. While not using the same strong language as in Draghi’s London speech, the unanimously supported ECB August statement says “Risk premia that are related to fears of the reversibility of the euro are unacceptable, and they need to be addressed in a fundamental manner. The euro is irreversible.”

 

but Bundesbank is against the extension of bond purchases, even conditional ones

 

Predictably Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann opposed the Governing Council statement that “The adherence of governments to their commitments and the fulfillment by the EFSF/ESM of their role are necessary conditions. The Governing Council, within its mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term and in observance of its independence in determining monetary policy, may undertake outright open market operations of a size adequate to reach its objective. In this context, the concerns of private investors about seniority will be addressed. Furthermore, the Governing Council may consider undertaking further non-standard monetary policy measures according to what is required to repair monetary policy transmission. Over the coming weeks, we will design the appropriate modalities for such policy measures.” In the Q&A session President Draghi explicitly said that governments have to go to the EFSF/ESM first (necessary condition) before the ECB would consider using the new facility, but stressed that being under an EFSF/ESM programme is not sufficient (ECB independence).

 

ECB managed to find a face-saving way to continue sovereign bond purchases

 

With this kind of conditionality the ECB found a face-saving way to continue its support. After setting up the SMP in May 2010, the ECB used it as a bridge to support bond markets (mainly Greece) until the EFSF became fully operational. And the re-activation of the SMP programme for Italy and Spain in August 2011 came after euro area governments agreed to expand the EFSF tools with primary and secondary market purchase facilities. Once the new facilities were operational, at the end of November 2011, the ECB reduced its purchases substantially (see Figure 3). Since then, ECB officials have stressed the need to activate the EFSF to address the countries’ high funding costs. By announcing the new facility at the August Council meeting, the ECB can continue with the purchases based on countries’ meeting the conditions required under the EFSF/ESM programmes.

 

 

Spain (in particular) and Italy not ready to ask for EFSF/ESM assistance quickly

 

Mr. Draghi was very explicit in respect to the conditions for ECB assistance for governments in bond markets, but Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy and Italian PM Mario Monti ignored that part of the ECB statement. In their remarks at a press conference after the ECB meeting, the Spanish and Italian PMs focused only on the point that the ECB regards the current bond market prices of their countries as unacceptable.3 While Mr. Monti, as before, left open whether Italy would request EFSF/ESM assistance, Mr. Rajoy, also in line with previous statements, declined tostate that Spain would ask for such assistance. To us, this is another example of the Spanish government’s poor communication, and highlights the need to restore credibility by getting external monitoring (at least from the EU Commission and the ECB, probably with technical assistance from the IMF).  Given the strong resistance of the Spanish government to asking the EFSF/ESM to activate the primary market purchase facility — although a Memorandum of Understanding regarding the required conditionality is already available with the existing bank support programme — and with no planned issuance in coming weeks, we do not expect that Spain will ask for assistance in August. But, probably forced by a further increase in its funding costs, we expect the Spanish government to make a U-turn and to ask for assistance during September. The statements by PM Rajoy suggest that the government is moving slowly in that direction. In order to make it politically digestible, the request for EFSF/ESM aid might come together with a cabinet re-shuffle.

 

German government also has no interest in activation of additional EFSF packages in August

 

Spain and Italy are unlikely to be the only countries holding back any quick activation of the EFSF’s primary bond purchase facility. In our view the German government has no interest in pushing Spain and Italy under EFSF programmes quickly for two reasons. First, after calling back all Bundestag MPs from their holiday to approve the Spanish bank bailout package, calling the MPs back for a second time during the summer to approve a Spanish (and maybe Italian) EFSF package would be seen as poor crisis management by Merkel. Second, an activation of additional EFSF measures before the interim verdict of the German constitutional court on September 12 on German participation in the ESM could increase the chance of the court saying that Germany cannot participate in the ESM, until the court makes its final decision, which probably will take another couple of months.

 

ECB has to provide details of the CGBPP

 

In addition to requests from Spain and Italy, and approval by the Eurogroup, the ECB has also to set up the details of the Conditional Government Bond Purchase Programme (CGBPP), for which the ECB’s risk, market and monetary policy committees will make proposals. So far, we learned from Mr. Draghi only that the CGBPP would be transparent in respect to countries and amounts. He also said that the secondary market purchases would focus on the shorter end of the yield curve. The ECB has to address the question of sterilization, with which we expect (unless there is a complete U-turn in respect to risks of deflation) the ECB will continue, but probably with longer dated, ECB bills rather than one-week term deposits. In our view the key questions from investors will be 1) how large is the ECB package is (what does the ECB understand by “adequate”?), 2) over what time frame the purchases will be conducted and 3) if the ECB will pre-announce the targeted size of the purchases at the beginning of the programme. Another big unknown is how the ECB wants to address investors’ concerns on the ECB’s de-facto seniority status.

 

EFSF/ESM and ECB purchases have at least to match gross debt issuance in order not to disappoint markets

 

To us, the minimum for an adequately sized bond market support facility, in order not to completely disappoint markets, has to be the full amount of a State’s planned gross bond issuance. While we do not have a financial assistance facility agreement for the ESM, such an agreement exists for the EFSF. According to this, while exceptions are possible, the EFSF can generally purchase no more than 50% of the targeted issuance at an auction. Based on this amount of EFSF (and probably ESM) primary market purchases, the ECB would then have to purchase at least the same amount of bonds in the secondary market, probably concentrated around auctions.

 

Spanish sovereign funding requirement for remainder of 2012 would probably require an increase in the size of the existing bailout programme

 

To be concrete, based on our calculations of the public deficit — assuming that the deficit is equally distributed over the year — and assuming that Spain remains able roll over its treasury bills, the total funding requirement for the remainder of 2012 is around €92bn. This would mean that, of the existing €100bn programme, the funds of around €35bn to €40bn currently not earmarked for bank-recapitalization would not even be enough to cover 50% of the targeted auction volume up to the end of the year. We consider that to assume that there will be any unused funds from the bank bailout programme is anyway very optimistic. As a consequence, there has to be an immediate extension of the size of the Spanish programme, which probably will increase the hurdles for Spain and Germany to agree to such a programme, or the ECB has to become willing to buy a larger amount in the secondary market than the EFSF would do in the primary market.

We hope by this point readers realize why the market was very correct in its initial selling response... But let's continue onward to our favorite, and Europe's most hated, topic: math.

Spain and Italy would require around €700bn of support for a two-year support programme

 

The market will likely be disappointed by a purchase programme up to the end of 2012 only. We think that it will require at least a programme for one year (end 2Q 2013) or better for two years (end 2Q 2014) to make investors feel more comfortable. For Spain, a programme matching the full debt issuance for one year would have to have a volume of around €177bn for one year and €306bn for two years. Italy (also assuming that the programme starts immediately) would require a volume of €197bn for one year programme and €397bn for two years (see Figure 4). So both countries under programmes for two years would require funds as large as €703bn, which would have to be covered by the EFSF/ESM and the ECB, as in our view the IMF is unlikely to participate in such bond support programmes.

 

And so we finally get back to the crux of the issue, and to the Deja Vu topic of just where the money to fund Europe will come from. Recall that the EFSF leverage, to get it to €1 trillion, was the sticking point of European hollow promises in September of 2011. That entire line of thinking promptly disappeared after it was made very clear that not only can such a structured vehicle ever be completed, but that there is nowhere to fund said vehicle from. In other words Europe still needs between €700 billion (just for Spain and Italy) and €1 trillion to prefund itself for two years. This is an issue that will not go away on its own if people simply close their eyes. All Europe has done now is to shift the rhetoric to one where the ECB may, potentially, if Germany ever agrees to it, pay for some of the prefunding fees, even as the final invoice still says €1 trillion give or take. So far Germany has not agreed to anything and will not until Spain and Italy admit, loud and clear to everyone, they are broke, in the process allowing Germany to slowly commence establishing sovereign oversight.

Which in turn brings us back to square one.

If the ECB takes half of the bond purchases, the EFSF/ ESM would be able to support Italy and Spain for 2 years, but not much longer

 

The maximum combined lending capacity of the EFSF and the ESM (assuming it gets the green light from the German constitutional court on September 12) is only €700bn and out of this, €192bn have been already committed to the existing programmes for Greece, Ireland and Portugal and around €65bn to recapitalize Spanish banks. Furthermore, around €10bn will be probably needed for a Cyprus Programme, which is likely to proceed in September (see Figure 2 on the front page). Ignoring the need for further funding for Ireland and Portugal, which in our view are likely to request second bailout programmes, and a smaller use of the Greek programme (as the Troika in our view is likely to halt the programme soon) this would leave the EFSF/ESM with a lending capacity of around €433bn. This would be large enough to cover 50% of the expected €703bn of gross bond issuance of the Spanish and Italian sovereign, but is unlikely to last for much longer. This would mean that the size of an ECB CGBPP for Spain and Italy would be at least around €350bn, but in order not to exhaust the EFSF/ESM completely in a short period of time, the CGBPP probably has to be larger.

Going back to our favorite topic: subordination - Citi once again makes it all too clear that any suggestions by wild eyed optimists that the ECB, or any other rescue mechanism, can ever be pari passu with existing sovereign debt, is idiotic.

Difficult to change the ECB’s de-facto seniority status

 

After setting a precedent in the Greek PSI that Eurosystem government bond holdings purchased under the SMP are senior to the existing bondholders, it will be very difficult to change that perception. Around the Greek PSI, ECB officials said that they would not be part of the private sector that was covered by the PSI. Even if the ECB participated fully in a second Greek restructuring programme, or unilaterally accepted haircuts on its Greek bonds, it would not change the fact that in a first round of debt restructuring the ECB was not pari passu. To us it is hard to believe, that the market would lose these fears, if the ECB puts a new name on the programme — CGBPP instead of SMP — without becoming more explicit on its seniority status. Even in the case that the ECB explicitly said that it would be pari passu with existing bond holders — which the ECB’s risk committee would probably try to prevent — it is uncertain if the market would accept this. The market has learned that while the euro area member states accepted quite a substantial reduction in the NPV of the bilateral loans to Greece (through interest rate reductions and maturity extension) the bilateral loans did not get the haircut of the outstanding volume of the liabilities that the existing bond holders did in the PSI. By giving up its de-facto senior status, the ECB probably will get more criticism from creditor countries like Finland and Germany.

Finally, the ECB lawsuits begin.

Question of time before ECB is before the ECJ for bond purchases

 

Particularly in Germany the criticism by politicians and the media of the ECB has increased substantially since Mr. Draghi’s London speech. Former ECB Executive Board Member Jürgen Stark stressed in a radio interview on July 31 that it would be difficult to distinguish between primary and secondary bond purchases. In his view the SMP purchases had the only target of reducing the funding costs of the periphery sovereigns, which was a contribution to prohibited sovereign funding. Mr. Stark added that, at least for the last two years, the ECB has breached the EU treaties, but that so-far no one has brought the issue to the European Court of Justice (ECJ). While we do not expect that the German government, which is unlikely to comment much on the ECB’s new bond buying plans, will follow the advice of some FDP politicians to bring the ECB to the ECJ for breaching Article 123 of the TFEU, to us it is just a question of time before such a complaint is made. A recent article published by the newspaper Die Welt provided a guideline on how to bring the ECB to the ECJ or the German constitutional court.

Ultimately the question is how long will the German people agree to an open-ended rescue fund sourced primarily by Germans. If the recent pick up in media rhetoric is any indication - not long.

German parliament has to approve Government decision in respect to ESM

 

Based on German national law, the Bundestag (at least through a 9-MP sub-group) has to be involved in ESM decisions, meaning that the German representatives in the ESM Board of Governors have to vote “no”, unless they have specific Bundestag approval. So far, there has always been a broad majority in the German parliament for government proposals in respect of the Euro area rescue mechanisms. In our view this is no longer assured. The first big test of Germany’s willingness to do “whatever it takes to preserve the euro” will probably be the change in the number of ESM instruments (Article 19 of ESM Treaty), which would empower the ESM to recapitalize banks directly. As the SPD wants to have much stricter conditions for giving the ESM the right to recapitalize banks directly as foreseen in the June 29 Summit agreement (single bank supervisor established), they probably will not agree to a change in the tool box.

 

SPD and Greens are open to give ESM right to get funding from the ECB

 

In the ECB funding-related and ESM leverage-related questions, the SPD and the Greens probably will be in favor of giving the ESM additional rights, because they want to introduce a system that makes the rescue mechanism larger and more transparent. As Jürgen Trittin, the head of the Greens’ parliamentary group in the Bundestag, regards a leveraged ESM as an alternative to their preferred option of a Debt Redemption Fund to deal with the crisis, they probably will agree on this and it seems that the SPD has a similar position. However, Angela Merkel’s CDU and even more so her coalition partners CDU (the Bavarian sister party of the CDU) and the FDP are strongly opposed to giving the ESM access to ECB funding or to increase the lending capacity of the ESM. While Angela Merkel might eventually make a U-turn on the question, we doubt that the rest of the coalition would follow her. In that respect, a possible decision to give the ESM access to ECB funding in the German Parliament probably would be combined with a vote of confidence, which we think Merkel would be likely to lose.

And the punchline, literally, for Merkel:

German government increasingly fragile — temporary grand coalition probably will agree on changes in ESM status

 

Facing the threat of a break up of her government, Angela Merkel is likely to stay firm at least for a while and will block the access of the ESM to the ECB funding capacities. In that respect, the ECB buying bonds alongside the EFSF/ESM reduces pressure on her side. However, given the increasing amount of government MPs that feel uncomfortable with recent ECB action and the overall developments in the European rescue activities, Angela Merkel’s increasingly fragile government might break up along one of the upcoming decision on the rescue packages, either in respect to the ESM toolkit, the continuation of the Greek loan package, or the approval of the Spanish and Italian requests for EFSF assistance. Hence, the centre-right coalition in Germany might become another victim of the crisis. If the current government breaks up and new elections are currently not possible (because of an unconstitutional election law), we would expect an interim grand coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD to run Germany. With a larger influence of the SPD, such a government would probably be more constructive in respect of rescue measures. However, while there seems to be some chance that the CDU would agree to the SPD proposal of a Dept Redemption Fund, with uncertainties in respect to the German constitution, we regard it more likely that there would an agreement to allow the ESM to tap the ECB funding facilities.

We don't. Which together with all of the above, we contend that - yes, the market did get it right initially when it sold of. And it will get it right again. Because Draghi did not have a master plan and all he can do now is make it up on the fly, just as Europe has been doing for the past 3 years. And even if he did, what Draghi or the anti-German members of the ECB council think no longer matters: what does matter is what Germany wants. And what Germany wants, it gets, which for all those still confused is simple - to keep Europe constantly on the edge, and the EUR low. After all for the German export industry a collapsing periphery is merely leverage to preserve its viability and keep its profitability going as the trade off to the hundreds of billions in sunk costs via TARGET2, which is merely the public financing opportunity cost to preserving a Eurozone which at this point few if any realistically expect to survive. If that means extracting as much benefit which funding a lost cause, so be it.

The irony in all this is that Bankia was almost right: however, instead of handing out Spiderman towels, it should have used Batman as its "deposit-challenged" symbol. At this point he may be the only one who can possibly prevent the destruction of Europe's Gotham -  Spain, which, however, paradoxically is the only thing that will lead to its restoration.

In retrospect perhaps Ra's al Ghul was on to something...

 


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Sat, 08/04/2012 - 14:12 | Link to Comment vinu02
vinu02's picture

German court rule on September 12th will decide whether Europe will survive,

Based on the chart market crash is still expected in August - September 

http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2012/08/dow-jones-s-nasdaq-and-vix-weekly.html

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 14:16 | Link to Comment agent default
agent default's picture

The decision will be a political decision.  The judges do not want to be made scapegoats for the failure of the Euro.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

Euro news, Euro drama, Euro brainwashing, Euro propaganda, Euro diverting attention from the biggest crime spree in history, the Federal Reserve, Trillions and Trillions stolen daily...

Tyler we both know that there are much better and more truthful news sources out there

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:05 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

I want to direct the attention of zerohedge readers to what I see as nothing short of appalling discrimination by our economic officials. Did you know that there are literally thousands of high market cap investment banks, broker dealers and insurance companies who have been denied SIFI status? The failure of our Federal Reserve to award MF Global SIFI status which would have saved one of America's most reputable financial institutions, is a sad page in America's history book. If we want to prevent this kind of tragedy in the future, then we must ensure that other financial insitutions are awarded SIFI status so that they are eligible for an emergency financing. We can't continue to have this attitude that some respected corporations can be allowed to go bankrupt, while others are saved. This inequality is unacceptable in the 21st century and I believe it is the duty of every forward thinking American to promote equal opportunity for top tier financial institutions.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:06 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

Hey everybody !  Look.  More brain farts from the DAILY SHOW.

ergo STFU MDB

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:42 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

Wow, central planners are completely psycho - like tripple reverse inverted child psychology with a twist of bi-polar and a tendency to be both passive and active agressive at the same time as having a personality disorder but pretending there is nothing wrong and they are in control. 

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:03 | Link to Comment engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

Sounds like you're describing my exwife...

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 18:39 | Link to Comment Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

You guys are getting all wrong.  Here, let Keywanda straighten you out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzspsovNvII&feature=autoplay&list=FLNMkLU4-mN3IcgWHaH5zLcQ&playnext=1

 

 

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 06:23 | Link to Comment NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

.... nope, twas mine .....

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

That one was pretty good MDB.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:46 | Link to Comment AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

MDB is awarded the SIZIT status.
Systematically Important Zerohedge Inverse Thinker status.

MBD, I am surprised you can type so well while laughing as hard as you probably do while posting. Love it when you hook a big one and really piss em off.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

MDB is awarded the SUKIT status.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:15 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

The sheeple should worship you MDB

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 18:50 | Link to Comment DTCC 1999
DTCC 1999's picture
(worth reading) MDB- It was devastating for two futures traders I know losing most of their account with MF Global. They would take exception to your description of MF Global as one of America's most reputable financial institutions or being respectable.  MF charged their clients fees to have a SEGROGATED account which was supposed to gain or lose based on the success of their own discretionary trades.  MF then used the client's money (in a round about way) for their own trades.  If a clearing firm does that and makes money their clients are none the wiser, but, MF blew their clients account without their consent or knowledge. Now what you describe as: appalling, tragic, unfair and unacceptable (to the point of it being the moral duty of all Americans to demand) is not that some people in MF go to jail and this practice end elsewhere; rather that they (and thousands of other such involved firms) all be bailed out by the Fed (call it Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) or TBTF). It would be awful to have what happened to MF on a large scale but we both know this isn't a feasible solution long term. Amnesty for those involved / responsible; contingent on their cooperation/involvement for a global restructuring that eliminates the ROOT (core ability and incentive) that got us here, is a necessary pre curser for disseminating the key information and abilities. As finite as the situation seems it is an incredible opportunity for the evolution of mankind brought about (counter intuitively) by the situation being so ominous globally that the zero sum outlook is no longer more attractive for anyone.  I suspect the unsympathetic tone in some ZH articles towards the people of some Euro member countries (whose people are in a similar pickle as Americans) are done strategically so that articles like this one (advocating their destruction) will seem acceptable - making Americans unknowing advocates for a similar fate. I'm not taking a jab at the ZH leadership/staff BTW - life can get complicated / no good deed goes unpunished / ect.
Sat, 08/04/2012 - 18:58 | Link to Comment Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

You just don't understand DTCC99.  Corzine was under a lot of pressure and was doing God's Work over at MFG.  Then some low life like yourself goes around trashing his name and the good name of MF Global (a fine upstanding futures brokerage) like this, well it is just a damn shame.  Zerohedge needs to ban haters like you, you just don't get it.  Not to mention all of the campaign money that Corzine raised for Obama.  How would Obama be able to bring us the change we all seek without Corzine?  Answer me that huh?  Thought so, chump!

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 07:55 | Link to Comment Dens
Dens's picture

MDB You forgot about the part where they should've issued bonds with the good'ol AAA stamp from Fitch so that Goldman could sell them to wise investors.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:04 | Link to Comment Precious
Precious's picture

It's physics.  Something Bernanke can't comprehend.

"For every Quantative Easing, there is an equal and opposite Quantative Squeezing."

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:38 | Link to Comment NewThor
NewThor's picture

It's physics + alchemy.

Ben Bernanke is more cunning than most give him credit for.

Paulson, Bernanke, Geithner and KashKari

Through debt, a whole world enslaved.

It's always darkest before the dawn.

Something Majestic, Magnificent and True

created our Solar System, The Sun, the Earth and The Moon,

I smile.

The Greatest of the Greatest shall return soon.

BITCHEZ~!

 

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:17 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Euro-neurotic, Euro-neuroses, Euro-erotic !  Euro-bitches bunga bunga all over southern europe.  The only question is how the contagion is contained...is there any confinement protocol ?   Some massive titanium coated prophylactic ?

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 14:57 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Europe needs to get out of denial and on with restructuring. Papering all of this over while central banks pump assets is a pretty explosive cocktail.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

bunga bunga all over Spain and Italy (and Portugal can fluffer).  EPIC !!

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:34 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Bernanke hates Euro's success in short 10 years. threat to dollar hegemony and alternative for arabs and chinese.

 

Spain is Florida.....it is not for productive, it is for retirement. but does Europe want to hand Spain and Italy over to other super powers like Russians, Chinese, or Arabs?

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 22:45 | Link to Comment FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

It is impossible for Europlanners to do the right thing. Simply put, to do the right things economically will not only expose the failure of central planners, but central planning and the collectivist state as well. Ther is no way in hell they will give that up. I also believe that even when it crashes they will not admit error. They will do the typical statist thing which is to say they simply needed MORE systemic control and more money or support.

These people have a god complex and you will never reason with them. You must defeat them and never ever give them power again. Actually, never ever give anyone that kind of power.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:27 | Link to Comment Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

The decision will be a political decision.  The judges  want to be made heros for destroying the Euro.

Fixed.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:43 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Yes, the German judges have pretty much already laid out their line in earlier decisions ... only a blank cheque for the EU or other (i.e., Latin) nations is forbidden. But a specific amount voted by the German parliament ... € 3 trillion, for example, for a Sinking Redemption Fund, is okay.

What is missing from the above thoughtful article, is what other ZeroHedge articles have emphasised these past several months - a focus on the vulnerability of German banks, insurance companies and pension funds when whirlwind-level crisis really hits Spain and Italy.

In other words, the German financial elite realises that in the longer term, they must agree to print trillions along with Draghi and the Latins - even though the Germans are playing this role of 'we are cautious about buying bonds' in the shorter term, a necessary role for domestic political consumption, given that the German people don't understand their banks etc. are knee-deep in this.

The money-printing and 'crisis moment' will help keep the euro low, and some of that deluge of printed cash will be used to try to soften the blow to people in Spain and Italy, to prevent them from taking the euro-exit route, and aborting the grand 'project' of the EU leadership.

Their current political planning is brainstorming to try to fine-tune the loss of sovereignty in Spain and Italy, so that it seems 'necessary' and not the instrument of popular oppression.

By the time the game is afoot on that level, later this autumn, the Americans could have started World War III in the Middle East ... what will happen by then is anyone's guess.

But the German leaders will in the end, join Draghi in agreeing to buy bonds and print, in order to try and save both the German banks as well as the euro and EU projects.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 19:00 | Link to Comment Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

How many times does one country have to subject its citizens to the evils of currency manipulation?

It seems once per generation is about the right answer for Germany.

A significant part of the german populations labour and wealth is being siphoned off through these clever currency tricks.

The germans greatest invention if they can manage it will be a stable and fair hard money system for themselves which cannot be usurped by the banksters or globalists.

The EURO is not such a system....

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 07:53 | Link to Comment BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Brussels seems cool...

but you've an arab problem.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183636/Brussels-How-cost--Hidde...

 

 

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture
"In Order To Be Saved, Spain And Italy Must First Be Destroyed".

So is this the feeble logic behind Obumsteer's destruction of our economy?

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 18:31 | Link to Comment Daily Bail
Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment thewhitelion
thewhitelion's picture

Soet of like that famous Vietnam war era quote (forgive my paraphrase)

"We had to burn the village in order to save it."

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 18:41 | Link to Comment MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Bingo. we have a winner. That line line was accompanied by a picture of a GI holding a Zippo lighter to a grass shack's roof.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment Crassus
Crassus's picture

 The quote was attributed to an unnamed American Army major as reported by Peter Arnett. (The village being Ben Tre, 02-07-1968.)

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

Ben will never, ever let the euro die.  That would cause devastating depression (yes, worse then now) due to a Uber-strong dollar. The euro will most likely limp along with a few decades of global recession similar to Japan with pockets of prosperity in the Hamptons, Naples (Florida, not Italy), and so on.

 

Biflation will continue eating at our flesh with correcting, downward house prices across the world despite falling purchasing power of most currencies (and, thus, increase in certain commodities -- oil PMs, food for example).

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment shuckster
shuckster's picture

Housing prices may go up or down - everyone who needs a house won't necessarily have to have one. Whats to stop our government from letting people live in tents? Nothing. It's not like there is a threat of revolution. So long as those at the top are content, nothing really has to change...

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:45 | Link to Comment Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

<<everyone who needs a house>>?

There are too-many-to-count houses for rent now, cheap..... Why buy? Everyone/anyone can still buy one with almost zero down and minimal job proof. My friend works as a grocery store cashier minimum wage and just bought a 2,400 sf house for $500 down and 30 year loan.

Until 20% down becomes the Rule again, house prices will wallow in the mud and stagnant, foreclosure troubles will persist and bankruptcies will hold steady if not keep rising. Hey, all those cloudy title closing defects haven't even hit the fan yet! Wait until these folks try to sell......been there...done that...no fun and very expensive.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:54 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

If you are in the position that you can afford a house, garden, windpower-setup and a solarthermic installation and so on, you may be better off over medio and long term. Energy prices are doomed to rise.

 

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 04:04 | Link to Comment awakening
awakening's picture

'Whats to stop our government from letting people live in tents?'

How well did that go down with Occupy Wall St?

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 14:07 | Link to Comment shuckster
shuckster's picture

You are a paid shill

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:30 | Link to Comment agent default
agent default's picture

Ben  may not want to let the Euro die, but when the periphery starts to implode for real, the social (well underway) and political collapse (on the way) will lead many countries to exit the Euro.  Ben can say and print whatever he wants, the peripheral states will get out of the Eurozone one way or another, and the Euro will become the currency of Germany and a few other counties.  For a while.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 00:35 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Ben couldn't bail out Europe if he wanted to.  There's no saving the Euro.  When they have no choice but to recapitilize their failing banks, it's all over.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

The Fed and ECB have planned this one together. Scare everyone into okaying THE BIG PRINT. When is Bernanke's Jackson hole speech?

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment shuckster
shuckster's picture

The big print is nothing but a transfer of wealth from the people to the bankers. The people will be starving and will have no hope but to turn to the bankers for forgiveness. the bankers will say "okay", but first hand over every last ounce of gold or silver and all your nice furniture and stuff. Also, all of your paintings and jewelry. then the people will be thrown enough scraps to survive and push a plow and the bankers will be free of the oppression that they have suffered at the hands of society for so long. long live the bankers. may the people toil forever 

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 15:59 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

That's all fine and good, but this coming round of coordinated printing will send prices soaring and the dollar crashing. Inflation pushing yields into even greater negative territory, therefore creating even more pressure to print will speed up the bursting of the bond bubble. The dollar may not see 2014.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 20:05 | Link to Comment shuckster
shuckster's picture

In the past 94 years, the dollars has lost 96% of its value. My guess is it will reach 0% in 2013, on its 100 year anniversary 

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment DCon
DCon's picture

Yanis Varoufakis -

 

 

The week when Mr Draghi greatly diminished the office of ECB President and sacrificed the fiscal-monetary policy distinction (in a manner that does not even help the euro

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2012/08/03/the-week-when-mr-draghi-greatly-dim...

 

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 14:34 | Link to Comment saturn
saturn's picture

So only the Germans must work now to get money. Ther rest of the world is tapped onto central bank spigots. Is that fair or something?

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment agent default
agent default's picture

The Germans make money from their exports, and pretty much all their customers are broke.  What do you mean fair.  No spigot no exports for Germany.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 01:09 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

"Is that fair or something?"  Funny because fainess was used as a reason for the euro experiment.  Add the euro to a long list of centrally planned failures.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

So the very future of thousands of years of culture have fallen prey to the slimy greedy hands of "money changers" who print currency out of thin air...

Yeah ~ I suppose that makes a lot of sense...

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

You say that like Europe has never been invaded by internal or external forces.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:38 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Call me 'old fashioned' but it's easier for me to fathom takeovers when they come at the hands of warriors swinging axes vs. hook beaked technocrat pussies stealing by way of obtuse legal proxy...

Edit: As is always the case... Sméagol is quick on the keyboard with a junk...

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 14:15 | Link to Comment shuckster
shuckster's picture

wrong. the bankers have suffered for thousands of years at the hands of the people. always with their pitchforks and torches. always out hunting for someone to blame for their shortcomings. the bankers have asked nothing of society except a meager existence and the dignity of a decent job and the right to access to good healthcare and private air transportation. the people are all savages and deserve their fate. the bankers will have their day!

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 01:22 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

This is what happens when politicians get into bed with money changers to keep the bread and circus show going. 

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 06:18 | Link to Comment lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

goldmine shachs

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment Vegetius
Vegetius's picture

So the idea is Italy and Spain will become provinces of the Euro State. You could not make this stuff up, really does anyone read history any more?

To know nothing of what happened before you were born is to remain forever a child.
        - Cicero

There will be blood

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 00:58 | Link to Comment Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

You might enjoy reading this letter an Andulucian mayor sent to Rajoy.

http://forwhatwearetheywillbe.blogspot.com.es/2012/07/open-letter-to-raj...

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 14:47 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Draghi can save them simply by uttering words... well for a few hours anyhow.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 14:51 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Large scale debt repudiation, followed by large banks being shuttered. Then fiscal and monetary stimulus, to perserve A financial system, and get economies (NOT BANKS) growing.

Next 2-3 years are going to suck anyway, mine as well have something to show for the crappy years.

Papering over this crap hasn't worked yet, doubling down on the papering effort isn't going to make it more effective.

Funny that nobody wants to be blamed for doing the right thing, career risk and all. Yet all are still getting sacked for doing the wrong thing. 

Oh well, there are only two endings: Debt Jubilee or War.

My guess is because morons are in charge, the latter is more likely. Also because 99% of people are idiots they see glory in war, and failure in debt repudiation. 

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:34 | Link to Comment agent default
agent default's picture

Printing and devaluation is the usual way governments repudiate debt.  An outright default is too messy and politically unreliable.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:39 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

sometimes doing it wrong is just right.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Banksters say: 

"In Order To Be Saved, the assets of the citizens of Spain And Italy Must First Be Destroyed"

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:42 | Link to Comment Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

"In Order To Be Saved, the assets of the citizens of Spain And Italy Must First Be Destroyed^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H Confiscated"

There. Fixed it for ya.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:09 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Exactly.  Confiscated with "austerity" now that the banks blew up the bubble with MBS's, CDS's, and selling their rehypothecated crap to municipalities and pension funds.

Currency devaluation, inflation, and banks getting cash for 0.05% from central banks to lend out at %5-29% to citizens to blow yet another bubble.

Unemployment, decreased wages, decreased services, crushed investment and pension value - and who is making money?  The Oligarchs and the Kleptocrats.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 19:37 | Link to Comment JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

'Austerity---it's for The Little People,' the men in suits say.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

"Ultimately the question is how long will the German people agree to an open-ended rescue fund sourced primarily by Germans. If the recent pick up in media rhetoric is any indication - not long"

 

The tongue  is quite agressive, and the people don't blame their politicians but the other country and "those lazy people" over there. Needless to say that they don't know much and they're not really interested to look behind the curtains. Ignorance...

 

I wrote the very day that the situation is leading to a stronghold in the northern european region with enslaved countries around/below them.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:22 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

The game plan all along has been to reach a point where each sovereign nation willingly cedes all control to  the Fourth Reich, er... the ECB, with each member of the population resigning themselves to perpetual servitude for "the greater good".  Those that can't see the similarity with the US Federal Gov't incremental assumption of more dictatorial control over the states has their head up their ass.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:24 | Link to Comment Amagnonx
Amagnonx's picture

I agree, this is the plan.  The simplest solution that presents itself, is for the people to acknowledge that the government has run up debts that are not the responsibility of the people.

The general population do not get any say in the government budget, they did not authorise the deficits - and therefore they should not pay.

 

People should get out from under the fist of the slave masters, and simply default  -do not pay tax, and stop using their filthy money.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

The people would first need to acknowlege that they and their culture are diseased, perverted, and corrupt, that the State is not god, that America is not exceptional, that actions have consequences, life involves decisions and decisions involve risk and uncertainty - myriad tenets all of which are anathema to the culture this country's people have voluntarily created, or, to which they voluntarily assented.

At present, doing that takes more courage and honesty than these people seem to possess. That's what happens when you sell out.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 21:03 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

yeah wasn't it Iceland that punted its Parliament and then told its bond holders and CDOs to fuck off?  Seems to me, if everybody agrees that failure comes with a price, then the bond holders have to take a haircut.  Unleash the dominoe effect and get it over with.  Mark shit down to zero, exchange properties on the Euro monopoly board and start over.  Am I wrong?  peace

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:46 | Link to Comment silvermaister
silvermaister's picture

buy silver !!

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:46 | Link to Comment Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Did you mean:

 

"In Order To Be Saved, Spain And Italy Must First Be Devoured"
Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:52 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

to explain it more easy:

GDP = C + I + (Gs - T) + (Ex - Im)

C = consumption
I = investments
Gs = government spending
T = taxes
Ex = exports
Im = imports

for spain, consumption is dropping which means industry needs less investments to meet consumption demand. so those 2 will never boost gdp. government spending is also dropping fast because of austerity and spain just announced they'll cut spendi g with another 120 billion.
now exports for spain are also terrible because they don't export because they can't compete on a wage level en imports are also to high.

so even if they boost government spending like the US does, it will only boost imports and don't increase gdp because it will level out.

so in order to save themselves, they need to leave the euro to get exports back going by decreasing wages with a cheaper currency which wil drive up investments and boost consumption.

It's a simple math question that goes for everybody.

for the us in this example, investments are low, consumption is dropping, taxes are going down and imports are way higher than exports. So also for the US, the math says, a cheaper dollar might get production back going and so on.

cheaper currencies is what it's all about. and there are 599 examples in history that show this outcome. and zero example of countries who grew their way out in another way.

the currencies will drop. point. and to get this done => print.

BUT!!!!

The math also says this : if you devalue the currencies AND DON'T GET INVESTMENTS AND PRODUCTION GOING = RINCE AND REPEAT IT ALL!!!!

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:57 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Excellent. Jim's Formula in a nutshell.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Here comes the British Banker's Association:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJoM7V54T-c
Spain and Italy are the guards in case you're wondering.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

Hmm, thought that I saw Draghi coming and running wild on all the guards, with Greece as the son, Germany would be the father and that b*tch is represented by France.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 20:45 | Link to Comment QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Of course there is no debt deducton in that formula. Credit is the basis of many of those factors.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 21:15 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

This Keynesian identity is bullshit.  dGDPt / d(G - T) is not positive because, in order for G to be positive, it must first rob its expenditures from somebody else first!  G, is not a productive measure in and of itself.  It has to come from taxes.  So, this implies that G = f(other productive sources taking it up the ass, as per usual).  So we can rewrite Keynes' brainfart taking the following form:

Y = C + I - G f(C+I+Net Ex).  at best dYt/dGt = 0.  otherwise negative.  always.  all else equal.  There's No Free Lunch.  Keynes pulls govcernment spending out of his ass - is the only illusion going on here.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 20:29 | Link to Comment Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

These variables create a mathematical equation which the solution is.... Greece Style Anarchy?

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Bears have been betting on a 2008-style crash for over 3 years, I'm amazed so many are still on the bear camp, unwilling to play the long side if that is which way the market wants to go.

I've never seen so many people negative when the SPY has already advanced 105% and the news flow remains horrible.

Reminds me of 1994 - 1995.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

the market is up on no volume so there's no commitment to keep the rally going.
so if people get into this market now, they'll get monkey hammered very soon.

earnings are bad
forecasts are bad
BDI is down big
PMI's are below 50 worldwide
the financial fraud game collapses are now on a weekly basis

congress is out for 6 weeks and when they come back it's debt ceiling talks all the way followed by elections so no QE3.
it's mote like the day before the nasdaq crashed in 2000/2001

there is nothing to keep e markets up!!!

No EU bailout
No US bailout
No nothing!

and you are a optimist?!?!?!?!?

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:26 | Link to Comment Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

Trading's about making money, not being 'proven right'.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

but it shouldn't be done by just gambling either.

and that's where you put your money on in this rally.

what you say is that investing is all about luck and nothing about logic. And yes the market has shifted that way in the last 10 years but that's comming to a end because risk is increasing to dangerous levels.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:56 | Link to Comment Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

As long as we run trillion dollar deficits we will avert another 2008 sytle meltdown for a couple years, until which we will have another 2008 style meltdown because we chose to run trillion dollar deficits. Make sense?

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:28 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

yes!
to keep the GDP from crashing, which would destroy the dollar, the print and spend money to prop it up.
But the next debt ceiling debate will push the FED in a corner because if they raise the ceiling the FED needs to monetize the debt.

the GDP needs to go up. untill the parts that make it up can't be rigged antmore.
And once numbers go down, like government spending, consumption, taxes.... it can only really be raise by something real because all the rest has a negative butterfly effect on the rest of the numbers.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 19:23 | Link to Comment Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

TPTB have provided retail with ample opportunity to get out of the markets at this point....

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 20:49 | Link to Comment QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Do you not realize that GS-taxes = USTs?  You comment on that formula that a sheep in a field. GDP is grossly inflated... Mathetmatically offseting a decline in C & I with more  Gs is not a wash.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:34 | Link to Comment Need More Cowbell
Need More Cowbell's picture

He (Sudden Debt) is right and he will soon own your (and Robos) money

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment radicall
radicall's picture

Unfortunately for the well informed - that is the hard part. You know it is all make Believe BS, but you can either go with it or you can lose money. Learnt that the hard way.

The US Stock market doesn't care unless EU breaks up. Greek exit probability did cause some panic - none of the rest did. Not even $AAPL missing earnings.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:28 | Link to Comment analyzer_66
analyzer_66's picture

there are already many poor & homeless living in tent cities under the highways in California, but society maintains an underclass at all costs, to keep the working class working hard for no raises and peanut bonuses, what and when is the breaking point for this ?

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

When do we find out if this Knight Capital croaked?

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Maybe middle of coming week when their current credit line is run out ...

Powers That Be are making a decision, not on bankruptcy merits, but whether it's better to just keep the thing afloat and avoid what they fear would be consequences of the Knight Bankruptcy

Big boys might feel it's necessary to keep Knight afloat to prevent the High Frequency Trading game going a little longer ... versus claiming Knight was the HFT 'bad apple' that needs to be gone

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:46 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

To paraphrase, "All you've got are your foncy gimmicks- your charts & and yor reports. What we have are GUNZ..." "No, what you have are Bullets.  ......."

what Europe has is BULLSHIT. USDA Grade A Pure BULLSHIT.     

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:50 | Link to Comment SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

ANYBODY who writes more than 1 sentence about Europe is a fukkin' asshole. 

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:00 | Link to Comment Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

But listening to Europeans talk around it is such good entertainment. The only European I know who is not fiddling away feverishly as Rome burns is from Latvia, the others will go on endlessly about how, though their countries have problems, each is better than the other EU countries and America, and how Americans are in a state of permanent and total ignorance and jealously of all things European - that there is literally no other conceivable explanation for pointing out the problems of modern Europe, everything is fine thank you, move along. It's a hoot.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

Do you think Spain and Italy would be in better position if they had the same amount proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia?

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment radicall
radicall's picture

 

Talking about ESM leverage I want to think ahead  bit.

Let's just say ESM is given a banking license for argument sake and gets access to ECB. How much would it have? €80B * X (leverage) or €700B* X?

Reason I ask is there is only 80 Billion Euro paid-in capital. Of the remaining 83B will come from #Spain, 125B Italy, 24B Belgium, 19B Greece etc.

 

So my question to ZH is assuming the "Bazooka" get a go ahead - how big will it be? What kind of leverage is it allowed? (I am guessing 7x based on the language here http://www.efsf.europa.eu/attachments/esm_treaty_en.pdf )

 

"The initial maximum lending volume of the ESM is set at EUR 500 000 million, including the outstanding EFSF stability support"

An article quantifying the Hypothetical Bazooka Math would be greatly appreciated

 

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

In the end it will just be printed euros, like in America with Ben's dollars ...

Mario Draghi tossed out a € trillion or so in the LTRO loan programme a few months back, and they didn't feel too much damage to 'price stabeelitee' from that, so the ECB is ready to print up € 3 trillion or more when needed later on.

They actually will want some inflation when they finally do it, with the German banks on the verge of imploding from contagion, and Spaniards and Italians needing to feel their debt burden is 'lightening' ...

Jim Sinclair has long had it right -

QE to infinity ... the only tool in the central banker toolbox that supplies the needed treasury funds in the crunch

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

Repay all the banker crooks first, and after they have filled their tanks with the European citizens cash, then they will let the countries be destroyed... All those Euro leaders are blatant crooks... soon Germany will rise up and put them all in the ovens... I hope.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 18:53 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

'the assumption that any proud people will willingly cede to foreign control, always are doomed to failure'

The Continuum families will either fail or succeed on this one.

My guess is that they will fail and make a mess as in all past attempts.

But they have so many technological weapons to unleash against the populace as they fail this time compared to previous world domination attempts that those that are left in the middle and upper middle classes, those in media and law enforcement, the youth, the technologists, they better start getting on board in the resistance or all hell is going to break loose.

Damn, hope those red suited German constitutionalist dudes that that look like they out of a fairy tale make some good decisions soon.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 18:25 | Link to Comment gregga777
gregga777's picture

Trapped in a Positive Feedback Loop is a Real B****:

In the simpleton's world that Keynesian economics created, government spending is additive to a nation's GDP.  Using Keynesian mathematics one arrives at the non-sensical conclusion that governmental deficit spending magicallly increases a nation's GDP even as the government teeters towards insolvency.  Meanwhile, the nation's entire economy becomes dependent on the deficit spending.  But, everyone is happy because of the boost to GDP growth that deficit spending seemingly provides.  Deficit spending creates the need for more deficit spending and so on.  This is an example of a positive feedback loop.  

A system with negative feedback quickly returns a system to its equilibrium point or stability after being disturbed, the way shock absorbers dampens a car body's motions while driving on a bumpy road.   A system with positive feedback allows small perturbations to create increasingly larger changes in the system.  Imagine driving a car without shock absorbers over a bumpy road only it would be much worse.  The friction in the car's springs and other suspension components would provide at least a small amount of negative feedback.

Governmental deficit spending requires more borrowing to support more deficit spending.  The government becomes like a person who abuses narcotics.  It requires more narcotics as their bodies become accustomed to the previous narcotics dosage.  They become addicts.  They eventually reach a point where the needed narcotics dosage simply prevents withdrawal without the narcotics-induced "high" that originally drew them to use narcotics.  To get "clean", the addict has to endure bone-crushing pain during the considerable withdrawal period.  Even so the relapse rate is quite high.  So it is with deficit spending.  It is the way it is with debt, period.

Inevitably market circumstances and/or international monetary agencies will force a reduction in government borrowing and spending and fiat currency printing.  Government contribution to GDP contracts. Private industry output, partially dependent on government spending, also contracts.  Unless tax rates are increased government tax receipts contracts, too, resulting in less spending and a further contraction in GDP.  Increasing tax rates to sustain current government spending will further reduce private GDP.  Private GDP continues to contract and government spending continues to contract.  But government revenues must at least be enough to maintain essential services and debt service.  Private GDP must be at least enough to maintain essential lliving levels, pay taxes and debt service.  Though public and private GDP are in free fall, public and private debt serivce are fixed.  The nation's economy is in a positive feedback loop.  Greece's economy is trapped in a positive feedback loop.  Spain and Italy are trapped in the same positive feedback loop.

Eventually, partial or full default is the only option.  In fact, it should be the first option because austerity almost always leads to default, though over a more protracted and much more painful time period.  Greece is a prime example.  Debt service has to be reorganized to reflect the new reality in public and private ability to pay.  Only then can the nation achieve equilibrium at the lower level of GDP where everyone, public and private, can live within their means.

If there is a lesson here it is that the foundation of Keynesian economics is based on Voodoo mathematics.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 18:35 | Link to Comment JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

Sudden Debt,

watch what happens to the "C" in your GDP equation when the internet sales tax (euphemistically called, 'Marketplace Fairness Act') takes effect this Fall/Winter:

http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/washingtonbureau/2012/07/24/inter...

 

Here are the taxes:

http://www.salestaxinstitute.com/rates.html

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 18:44 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

They are destroying themselves!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Massive debt loads that roll over in the next few years. Negative GDP growth and staggering budget deficits.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/08/04/mission-improbable-ra...

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 19:18 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

The Staple Singers Respect Yourself Live Filmed Performance 1972
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=oab4ZCfTbOI&NR=1

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 19:31 | Link to Comment rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 Or to put it in a somewhat different light,

In order for the TBTF bank cartel and their handmaiden, the  Pentagon/NATO War Enterprise,

to be saved,

Spain and Italy [and many others] must be destroyed.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 19:47 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

Celtic Wonder-The Briar and the Rose
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAKE_3c4QxQ
.
there is no spoon original english
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzm8kTIj_0M
.
there is no spoon, there is no market.
the bald kid said it.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 20:42 | Link to Comment LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

"I must break you"

Ivan Drago.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

forget spain----this is ALL HEADING towards a showdown with germany and france. just like the good ol' usa', they have massive national debt and corrupt banking regimes. germany the least corrupt banking regime by far. though. 

 

so they will all need MASSIVE devalutation over the medium term to avoid a default. what then? 

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 21:00 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

why not just destroy the bankers?
saves the entire world. no?
yes

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 21:50 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Spain, Italy and the rest of Europe - time to put an end to socialism which is continuously pitched/sold to the masses as to how good it is.

 

If Europe's socialism was that good...

 

Awaiting the sound of the flush.

Sat, 08/04/2012 - 22:34 | Link to Comment Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

Fact 5:- EUR.USD to settle around 1.17 by year end.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 01:15 | Link to Comment Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

Draghi reminds me of Madoff in the bunker, as his Ponzi scheme started unravelling in earnest. Drink your poison, Mario. Drink deep.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 06:40 | Link to Comment Venerability
Venerability's picture

Or In Order to be Saved - as decent human beings - Short Sellers Worlwide United Must Be Destroyed.

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment BarryG
BarryG's picture

The German Constitutional Court is one thing, but it all rests on the long-term game plan of the German elite, who are currently talking about DEMOCRACY BEING THE THREAT AND THE PROBLEM IN GERMANY AND THE EUROZONE.

Their answer? A "provisional dictatorship".

http://germanywatch.blogspot.co.uk/2011/09/democracy-is-threat-to-germany.html

Sun, 08/05/2012 - 20:41 | Link to Comment Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

Sort of out of context with the Spain and Italy thing but very simliar to the USA.

 

Reminds me of my favorite scene from any movie Gangs of New York (Current ones exist in many forms banksters, mafia, its a tradition thing I guess)  Two thieves (banksters) run into the burning building at which point the firefighters show up fighting the entire time of who has the right to put out the fire (democrats / republicans).  Meanwhile the two theives steal everything of value, and make it out of the burning building just before it collapses because of course the firefighters never made up their mind (debt crisis / current swindling). The two theives make it back to their "hideout" (tax-haven), which the corrupt cop (IRS) comes in and takes some of the plunder.  Amazing how far we have come since the civil war.  Politicians are still stuck in 1832. 

 

No references to 911 are implied in this post, just so I am patriot act safe.

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