• Sprott Money
    05/05/2016 - 06:02
    Why is a Deutsche Bank mouthpiece suggesting “negative retail deposit rates or perhaps wealth taxes”? The answer is to (supposedly) stimulate our economies.

Oui Monsieur La Difference

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Mark Grant, author of Out Of the Box,

No, I will not be speaking of THAT difference but of the difference between the two contenders for the French presidential elections. If I spoke of the other difference I would send my compliance people into cardiac arrest and I am not that unkind on a Friday morning in the spring. In all of the polls for the last six months the socialist, Francois Hollande, is ahead in the run-off election between 6 and 16 points. The first bout is April 22 and the Concours d’Elegance is May 6. Now no one that is not French can understand the French well. The psychology of this nation is singular and lies somewhere between the puffed out chest when uncorking a Chateau Petrus and an air of casual indifference when sitting at Café Lipp in Paris and regarding the citizens of the various arrondissments parading along with that certain disdain which can only be worn by the people of Gaulle; Charles and otherwise.
 
“Give me six lines written by the most honorable of men, and I will find an excuse in them to hang him.”
 
                                                                       -Cardinal Richelieu
 
What Mr. Hollande’s win will mean for France is something to be carefully considered. A tax rate on the wealthy at 75%, renegotiate the EU fiscal pact, raise the minimum wage, impose more governmental spending, a decrease in the retirement age and a hostility directed at the banks and other financial institutions that may be described as combative or perhaps virulent and a complete change in attitude and direction from Napoleon’s strutting reincarnation also known as Sarkozy. If Hollande wins then what France was will not be what it is going to be and it is not a marked shift but a violent upheaval not only for France but for the European Union. There is no love lost between Hollande and Merkel and policies of the two nations will not be countries but worlds apart. In fact, in the EU-17, Germany will be quite isolated and the rancor that will increase will strain the political construct past what they are experiencing at present. 
 
"Is it to be thought unreasonable that the people, in atonement for wrongs of a century, demand the vengeance of a single day?"
 
 
 
                                                                                       -Robespierre
 
On the Horizon
 
 
 
The G-20 meets this weekend as Ms. Lagarde tries to raise more money for the war chest at the IMF. Some will be forthcoming though there is notable pushback to determine its use by Canada, the United States and some other nations. The outcome of this meeting will be interesting and probably determine the open on Monday. One other interesting note is the upcoming EU meeting where France and Germany will propose the reintroduction of border controls which flies squarely in the face of stated European Union policies for the past decade. No one is paying particular attention to this announcement but it is a clear sign of Federalism on the wane and of Nationalism coming to the fore. If no one on the Continent is going to be European then the price of this game of chance seems rather extreme. It would have been much easier for the Germans to take up “Strip/Risk.” They could have just said, “I have taken over Greece, Portugal and Ireland and now give me your blouse.”

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Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:36 | 2360658 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Of course the socialists are gonna win. It was obvious a year ago at least.

And I think this post is BS since Holland is REALLY pro-EU...

One thing that could happen because of this... GEORGIA could be put into NATO because of this. The only two guys who stopped Georgia (and Ukraine) from being in NATO last time were Sarkozy and Berlusconi... well guess what folks, they won't be there at the next NATO summit...

Black swan??? Hell yeah black swan!

In other news :

http://twitter.com/#!/RT_com

Pentagon places around 430 Tomahawk cruise missiles near Iran's borders

Restless N. Korea readies another ballistic missile - report

French presidential hopeful Francois Hollande promises troops to Syria in case of victory and if UN considers it necessary

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:40 | 2360685 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

Vive la revolution!

I can't wait for Hollande to attack the idea of austerity. Millions of brave public sector trade unionists have fought for centuries against the greedy bourgeoisie dating back to the french revolution. The result is one of the most progressive and liberal societies on earth. As the great Michael Moore pointed out in a documentary, true socialism is when the government fears the people; not the other way round. In france, the family is supported via generous benifits; workers are supported via a decent minimum wage. The bankers, traders, politicians, speculators all want to send us back to the days before the revolution with huge wealth concentrations and monarchies...

WE THE PEOPLE WILL NOT STAND FOR IT!!! Vive la France!

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:47 | 2360708 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Vive la France, Libre.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:53 | 2360730 economics9698
economics9698's picture

The best quality the German people have is they like to kill French people periodically.  It must be getting about that time for the games to resume.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:06 | 2360960 machineh
machineh's picture

It will never come to that again, one would fervently hope.

But if Angela Merkel is confronted with a 'red diaper baby' Jewish leftist like Hollande as her partner in the 'core of Europe,' it's hard to see this unlikely pair getting along.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:26 | 2361055 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Recent history has shown that if it walks like a socialist and talks like a socialist it may still be a fascist.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 13:18 | 2361604 Sanksion
Sanksion's picture

Don't overfear the situation. We probably invented the first the white flag. 

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 15:56 | 2362189 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Dude, NATIONALISM REMAINS THE MOST POWERFUL FORCE IN EUROPE.   When the crisis gets ugly enough, that is what will band the people of each country together behind any politician.  

The socialist politicians will quickly and easily switch to fascism, nationalist socialism, and "Europe" will devolve into competing blocks of aging basket case currency-devaluing messes.      Be prepared.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 11:07 | 2361218 Dien Bien Poo
Dien Bien Poo's picture

your comment is repugnant and hateful. Is your real name Dick Cheney?

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:07 | 2360752 Mercury
Mercury's picture

As the great Michael Moore pointed out in a documentary, true socialism is when the government fears the people; not the other way round.

 

I'm afraid that what the record actually shows is that the more socialist the government, the more the people fear it.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:11 | 2360765 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

I'm afraid that no matter what the ism is that runs a country or a people, sociopaths figure out ways to run it and game it.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:13 | 2360775 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yep. The more money there is in government, the more corrupt it will be.

The only government that should exist is a libertarian government.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:24 | 2360805 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Well, many forms of productive human activity like free enterprise and trade aren’t  “-isms” at all with a bunch of formulas, rules and doctrine but things that humans do and engage in naturally like food gathering, shelter seeking and sex.

 

The most successful forms of government acknowledge human nature (including things like sociopathy), try to encourage it’s most socially beneficial aspects and refrain from attempts to change or thwart it beyond what is most necessary.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:40 | 2360867 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

I agree with you, to be sure, but even what you have written creates the foundation for the destruction of whatever system you create, namely; try to encourage it’s most socially beneficial aspects and refrain from attempts to change or thwart it beyond what is most necessary. 

The interpretation of 1. what does it mean to encourage, 2. who is to decide what "socially beneficial" and 3. who is to decide what needs to be "thwarted" - I assume that this will eventually evolve towards destruction.  Only the timeline will change. 

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:05 | 2360948 Mercury
Mercury's picture

I think we've witnesed just that.  Look at the US constitution, what it's architects tried to accomplish in light of what had happened before, the comprimises they made, the relative success and "abnormal returns" the subsequent government produced (still the oldest written constitution still in service)....and where we've evolved to now.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 15:59 | 2362199 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Yeah, Obamacare is great example of central government mission creep.   The Dept of Education (Orwell  Alert) is another obvious one.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:37 | 2360853 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Again (and again) it bears repeating.  Austerity is a problem ONLY when the State has become such a big player in the economy.  With a limited central government, there would be little pain (or reason) for a massive cut.  It is because of the nanny State employing and supporting a huge percentage of the nation (with debt of course) that these austerity measures are so painful.  

Holland perfectly represents idiotic EU think - France is literally drowning in debt and his solution is more spending!   These quacks never ask the simple question:  What happens when folks refuse to buy our bonds?

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:05 | 2360952 OttoMBMP
OttoMBMP's picture

Have the Central Bank buy them, of course.

And that's what Sarko is up to as well.

The French have the "choice" between crony capitalism and socialism. Maybe, with Hollande the crash comes sooner. So it's perhaps even the better outcome.

But, come on, in the end, there are no real differences between these believers of a big government.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 16:02 | 2362210 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

The frustrated French people are soon going to be offered, in place of internationalist socialism, the kind that is most popular in a crisis, NATIONAList SOCIALISM.  

The Hollande France First type themes are already there, with protectionism, treaty breaking, and probably nice thoughts of the good old days when they could devalue repeatedly (pre ERM, pre-Euro).

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:39 | 2360862 Sanksion
Sanksion's picture

Have you ever tried to work, actually, in France ? I doubt it. It is the most depressive environment, ever. Even doing shitty job, you will have more respect if you do it abroad, here, french considers their fellow as shit. And that's where our governement comes. And we treat each other with lack of respect, we try to create a human and warm environment by creating an administration treating you as ... a social security account. And so, we become even more douchebags the ones with the others, as the administration is turning social cooperation into b-crats rape.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 16:05 | 2362218 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

I lived in France, studied and worked there for precisely 10 YEARS, and fully agree with you.  The French have made themselves very unhappy trying to make their utopique system work out.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:50 | 2360879 Sanksion
Sanksion's picture

True socialism is the consolidation and control of wealth by a few. That is France. Welcome, we did it. And the very facts that the most wealthy french are proponent of socialism, should enlight you. Social warfare is a joke, as the poor sees in socialism the answer, meanwhile it is the very tool to control their lives by the elit.

 

I bet Michael Moore see himself very well in a socialist country, occupying a monopoly position to sell his shit, as the Goebbels in chief of national communication and information.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:52 | 2360900 Renfield
Renfield's picture

heh. Damn straight: "And the very facts that the most wealthy french are proponent of socialism, should enlight you"

Or, cui bono.

So many of us are still confused about why universities have, for so long, been led by the "progressive" left.

Universities are traditionally the home of the privileged.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:37 | 2361099 frenchie
frenchie's picture

you never lived in France right ?

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 11:07 | 2361210 Dien Bien Poo
Dien Bien Poo's picture

you never lived in pre Chavez Venezuela right?

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:55 | 2360692 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

 

Yeah....the French are about to vote in the communists......so they can turn into greased Grecians on rails........BOOM.......winning!!!!

 

Don't expect the Germans to pay for it........unlike the Greeks.....they really don't like the French......yeah......I said it!

 

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 16:07 | 2362225 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Nah, the existing socialists will morph into national socialists, slowly at first, then all at once.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:43 | 2360697 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Both Sarkozy and Hollande are controlled by the same group of banksters/criminals. The French elections will not matter since Europe will be imploded to introduce a global currency.

 

Some good news: at least, for now, the currency will not be based around carbon credit scams, a tax on air, a tax on life.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 16:09 | 2362236 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Nope, nationalism will be the primary force that comes to the fore when this crisis comes to its breaking point, which means MORE CURRENCIES THAN BEFORE, not some utopique global currency.  

Various commodities and similar stores of value will always adjust in price to counteract and kill some centrally controlled fiat wet dream currency.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:30 | 2360660 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Combative against banks?  Don't agree with much of the other beliefs...but the bank idea leaves me with, "bring it!"

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:33 | 2360664 i-dog
i-dog's picture

If only we could believe a word he says....

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:43 | 2360686 French Frog
French Frog's picture

Glad to see that someone remembers what politicians are truly like

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:34 | 2360671 stock trout
stock trout's picture

Perhaps the Sarkozy government should hire Diebold or Putin to ensure fair elections.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:47 | 2360699 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Vee vill transmit information to Vladimir.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:37 | 2360677 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

OT:

Spain Plans Border Controls to Prevent Protests at ECB Meeting

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- Spain will reinstate border controls to prevent protesters from disrupting a meeting of the European Central Bank in Barcelona, suspending a treaty on free movement in Europe, a government official said.
The measure is designed to prevent “anti-system” protests after security reports indicated there was a risk to public order, said the Interior Ministry official, who declined to be named in line with policy.
The ECB holds its rate-setting meeting in Barcelona on May 3, two days after May Day, which is traditionally marked by union-led marches across Europe. Barcelona has seen some of Spain’s most violent protests in the past year, most recently on March 29, when demonstrators set fire to dumpsters and clashed with police after a general strike.
Spain hasn’t suspended the Schengen treaty that allows free movement since Prince Felipe, the heir to the throne, got married in May 2004, two months after an al-Qaeda train-bombing killed almost 200 people in Madrid, the official said.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:39 | 2360679 Nachdenken
Nachdenken's picture

Border controls seem to be necessary in that large numbers of workers from the "periphery" are moving to the "core" countries.  The migration of labour does not solve the intrinsic regional problems of structural recession and a looming systemic breakdown.  One more brick in the wall to hold back the tsunami of economic failure.  The signs have been often enough read and considred here on ZH.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:31 | 2360833 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

 Nachdenken, large numbers of workers {immigrants} from the "periphery" are moving to the "core" countries. They have been the infiltrating for years, I thought things were bad in southern France in 2001, my last trip was worse. Most of these are not workers, as much as they are leaches on the economy. 

The French, et al in the region fear the vastly rising immigrant population, it seems to be out of control. With the economy as it is in southern Europe and the migrant population problems, this thing is about to come to a head....

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:38 | 2360680 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

What Mr. Hollande’s win will mean for France is something to be carefully considered. A tax rate on the wealthy at 75%, renegotiate the EU fiscal pact, raise the minimum wage, impose more governmental spending, a decrease in the retirement age and a hostility directed at the banks and other financial institutions that may be described as combative or perhaps virulent and a complete change in attitude and direction from Napoleon’s strutting reincarnation also known as Sarkozy.

Sarkozy as Napolean is a complete exaggeration and not even close to Napolean. I don't see how this ends well though for France. Look at how the left runs every other country into the ground.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:58 | 2360691 Mercury
Mercury's picture

One other interesting note is the upcoming EU meeting where France and Germany will propose the reintroduction of border controls which flies squarely in the face of stated European Union policies for the past decade. No one is paying particular attention to this announcement but it is a clear sign of Federalism on the wane and of Nationalism coming to the fore.

...but where are the disaffected going to go? All the choices are bad in their own special ways.  Here's an editorial in today's WSJ about how Britain’s more civilized citizens are getting fed up with the loutish behavior that their welfare state seems to foster.  It specifically mentions France as a destination to flee to - which is kind of funny in this context.

There are no more frontiers left in the world.  I predict a (new) wave of private colonialism....wherein a collection of corporations, private individuals, specialists etc. aggregate themselves into a consortium and present themselves to a potential host territory, complete with binding contracts, covenants, capital investment plans, the works – something like the reverse of a private equity fund.  I’m not endorsing this or saying it could work out well for any of the interested parties necessarily.  But there are historically only so many possibilities when things reach this point and the points that likely come next.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:42 | 2360693 youngman
youngman's picture

France will become the next Venezuela......

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:56 | 2360731 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Mariachi bands playing at the Eiffel tower......that'd be pretty cool to see.

 

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 11:59 | 2361371 Dien Bien Poo
Dien Bien Poo's picture

Mariachi bands are Mexican not Venezuelan. You Americans are very binary arent you. There are white people from Greenwich and the rest of us are just a bunch of mixed up savages. 

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 16:10 | 2362241 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

majority of amrkns have never left "their country" - and since they're woefully uninterested in anything beyond their "entertainment" babysitters - whichever is chosen, TeeVee, sports, porn, gambling, drugs, etc. - memorising stereotypes is about the best they can do.

oh, and bleating on about anyone that is "like" them, whichever group they currently identify with. . .

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 16:12 | 2362248 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

That will be the prevailing point of view once nationalism consumes, one more time, Europe.

BTW, we have more nationalities and ethnicities living and working here, and well represented, and reasonably successfully, than anywhere else in the world.    It's like Reagan observed, when the US team marches in during the opening of the olympic games, our team "looks like the whole world".    The other teams look a whole lot more caricaturally compatible with their caricatures.

Those are the facts down here in the real world, you mixed up savage!

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 11:05 | 2361204 Dien Bien Poo
Dien Bien Poo's picture

you mean they will discover huge reserves of heavy crude and expel all the foreign oil cos to exploit it for the benefit of French people? I wish!

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:43 | 2360695 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

on the other hand Hollande might just be all talk to get in but will really make no change.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 08:56 | 2360732 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

there is a question of "what's do-able." since general strikes will be the norm for the Continent going forward having a Socialist to at least "let off some steam" doesn't sound all that bad an idea right now. and since large strikes in effect "close the border" it's hard to take the treaty talk too seriously. for now. i have consistently stated my view for years on this site that Trichet's "hard money policy" going into this catastrophe was pure lunacy. i stand by that still. (and events proved me right...again i might add. you folks really are idiots in these here parts.) the euro is still MASSIVELY over-valued...with a multitude of energy revolutions going on simultaneously in the USA...and the most aggressive foreign policy in our nation's history...and i think the European Continent is in DEEP trouble. IMMINENTLY. That does include England btw!

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 16:18 | 2362259 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

What is "do-able" in these circumstances is a shift to nationalistic France-first stuff, with lots of external and a few select internal scape goats.    That is what socialist politicians do, to keep power, in a crisis, and all of France's politicians are statists, practically speaking.   Fascism will come to the fore, because all the failing private institutions  need to suck up to the government to continue to exist, and the government will use the private sector unashamedly and more and more OPENLY to whatever ends they design.    This is fascism, authoritarianism.   That's how this will go in Europe.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:00 | 2360742 Mutatto
Mutatto's picture

 

"on the other hand Hollande might just be all talk to get in but will really make no change."

The old "Hope and Change" routine, eh?

 

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