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Overnight Mood Better Following Stronger PMI Data, More Promises Of "Imminent" Greek Deal
Anyone who went to bed with the EURUSD about to breach 1.30 to the downside may have been surprised this morning to see it trading nearly 150 pips higher. Checking the headlines for news of a Greek deal however would be futile, as one did not occur. Instead what did, were more promises of a deal being "imminent" even as Greece is doing all it can to appease intransigent creditors, offering GDP upside warrants (something that did not work too well for Argentina), with the IMF stating it demands guarantees that this time Greece will follow through with promises. Oddly enough the German demand for fiscal overrule has gotten lost in the noise but is certainly not forgotten and last we checked Merkel has not withdrawn this polite request. Still futures are up, primarily on a smattering of better than expected PMIs, in China and Europe. Alas, the Chinese PMI beat as discussed last night, was more of a cold water shower as the market had been hoping for much more defined promises of PBoC intervention and instead got a lukewarm Goldilocks economy which could last quite a bit longer without RRR-cuts. As for European PMI numbers being better than expected, we only wonder if these now correlate with the prevailing unemployment rate throughout the Eurozone.
Bloomberg summarizes the key events defining overnight mood:
- Upside manufacturing PMI surprises for China, Sweden, Norway, Italy, Germany, U.K. and EC
- Bund, Treasury yields higher; most EU sovereign yield to bund spreads tighter, with significant tightening for Belgium, Italy, Portugal, Spain
- Portugal, Italy and Spain lead Bloomberg’s Sovereign Debt Movers, with yields falling as borrowing costs declined at Portugal bill sales and as Reuters reports talks between Greece and private creditors could wrap up today - Reuters
- Bondholders may get sweetener tied to revival in Greece’s economic growth that would ease impact of accepting lower coupon, people with knowledge of talks said
- U.S. manufacturing probably grew at a faster pace in January, ISM’s factory index is forecast to show; the Treasury at 9am will announce the sizes of next week’s 3-, 10- and 30-year refunding auctions
- Germany sold EU5b 10-yr bunds (a reopen of the 2% Jan. 2022 issue) at an average yield of 1.82% vs. 1.93%; borrowing costs also fell at the U.K.’s auction of 5% 2025 bonds
- Commodities mostly moderately higher, led by silver +1.9%, 0.6 std. devs. {FIFW GLCO <GO>}; exception is nat gas -2.9% on continued Exxon drilling despite low prices
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Tyler...how long have we been doing this now?
Of course there is going to be another Greek deal...as long Ctrl P is at the helm somehow, someway there will always be another bailout.
We are going to "grow" our way out of this of course...that doesnt mean we won't do it through a deflationary period or hyperinflationary period.
For now money is being destroyed in the "real" world where meer mortals live faster than Ben can print.
Ctrl-P Ownage!!!!
Imminent front...it's a put on.
Sure enough on a day when AMZN crashes and burns we open up 100.
Too much slosh around chasing its own tail.
in: Goldman Sachs is Probably Not a "Buy"
ericFry, over @ theDailyWreckingball picks up on mattTaibbi's mock of goldman's jim0'neill and includes (paste):
“The folks at Zero Hedge long ago caught on to Goldman’s pump-and-dump vibe,” Taibbi reports. “Here’s what they said when Goldman upgraded European bank stocks a few weeks ago:
Goldman has just started selling European bank stocks to its clients, whom it is telling to buy European bank stocks…Translation: run from European bank exposure.
Sure enough, Euro bank stocks plummeted a few days after that Zero Hedge post.
As a result of Goldman’s alleged — albeit unproven — “pump-and-dump vibe,” its recommendations often seem very poorly timed (from the standpoint of its clients), which, of course, would make them very well-timed from the perspective of Goldman’s trading desk.
Actually europe banks are higher since goldman upgraded them. I don't agree, i don't understand but they are.
I know Greece will NOT cut salaries, i have some experience on defaluts , i live in Argentina. They will say , we are stopping all payments on the debt , one day. If not some politicians will get killed.
I just don't know when!???!!!
Bad News on mainstream (Trimmed Gains, Profit Paring), Good new on mainstream (Rally Like no tomorrow), Even the BDI does not matter for those fuckers!
For all the Bears out there Warning: Stay on the sideline, a bullish raid is about to begin... If you want to go short, you go short intraday with Robo (Be careful though)
This is how it's going to play out this year
First Half of 2012 (Hyper Inflation, Bulls Run) / Secon Half of 2012 (Delevrage , Bears run)
Eye the bullshit overvalued junk Facebook IPO , after 1 or 2 weeks of the IPO start the short
Time Frame Sometime between April - June
Bullish Treands why?
1- The US Elections, where they will keep the masses happy with this rally
2- The bullshit overvalued IPO for facebook
3- The manipulation of the Iran/Strait of Hormuz War to keep Oil up and to save XOM and CVX from a massive sell off.
4- The hope for Qeasy3 which will pump the markets up further in March. So am expecting the Bulls to take over the session for the upcoming months, and the volumes will increase where i will be making the biggest SHORT in history...
"Take off is optional, Landing is a must"
i'm lucky to be here.
I was betting on deleveraging first , then qe3 then a second half rally...ooops.
Fuckin hell
The market moved 150 pips in about 2 hours on the back of news that the EZ was contracting at a less rapid pace last month than it was the month prior - That makes complete sense...WHEN YOU WALK THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS!
What if you are really really successful?!
You are Welcome ...
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To the New World Order
SURPRISE!!!
Wheeeeeeeee
"Imminent"
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
debt limit increased..PPT now has green light. when you reduce work force 30% and sell on hand inventory you post great numbers for a qt or two..then you hit the wall.
I am at the wall waiting.
beats on lowered revisions qtr after qtr. Sooner or later we hit zero expectations. Crazy bs.
I honestly thought we had topped out on this market, but guess when the programs say we will keep going up we could see 1500 on the s and p which I think is crazy.
but if yu had charted. (dollar bear properly) you would have ecpected the euro up this am)
I did get teh sell signal yestery though
To all you liberals, read up:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jan/31/hurt-islamist-firster-president-not-what-he-claime/
Oh, the surprise isn't the euro, it's that a huge bellweather of american shopping missed, shich should drap the entire market down didn't. but that's algo's for you.
One Late night in Frankfurt:
"We needa some more E-Uro.."
C:\USR\DRAGHI\PRN>print
please specify printer device
"affanculo !"
C:\USR\DRAGHI\PRN> Ctrl - P
please specify printer device
"Cazzo ! Nessuno me lo ficca in culo! "
C:\USR\DRAGHI\PRN> PRINTO !
unknown command
"Ummh.. err :
can I use my HP Deskjet !?
or do I need da color printer ?!?"
So much for the decoupling BS. I've had the wagons circled around my core holdings for so long that it's becoming normal. The cavalry is not coming. It was probably wiped out at Little Big Horn.
Have they started work on the 3rd Greek bailout and 2nd Portugal bailout yet?