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Overnight Review And A Look At Today's Snoozefest

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As Goldman observed last night, the "metaboring" meme continues, as things go from boringer to boringest. Nothing notable has happened overnight. Some things that did happen was news that Spain is about to receive an emergency disbursement from its €100 billion euro bank bailout because of restriction imposed by the ECB on bank borrowings; Italian banks announced plans to dispose of more bad loans to avoid "potentially bigger losses" (to whom? the ECB?), non-voting Fed member Kocherlakota saying that cutting IOER would have a minimal impact (are you paying attention former visiting Fed advisor David "the Fed will bail everyone out always and forever" Zervos), UK retail sales coming in stronger on bigger gas and food purchases (so aside from being ignored for inflation purposes these are useful when extrapolating economic "growth"), July Eurozone inflation coming in just as expected unchanged at 2.4% Y/Y, China FDI collapsing 8.7% as data revealed the longest run of declining inward investment growth in China since the 2008-09 financial crisis sending local markets to 2 week lows as the MOFCOM said the country's 2H export outlook will be even more grim and Premier Wen said easing inflation (not in food) allows for more room to adjust monetary policy, a statement that had zero impact on domestic stocks. As a result we have seen minimal flattening in Spanish and Italian 2s10s, and a continued gradual drift lower in the EURUSD. And this, aside from another week of initial claims that will have the prior week's data revised higher, and a Philly Fed, may be as good as it gets, as volume is set to plumb another multi-year low, and with the 2s10s flattening again, guarantees that bank profits in Q3 will be atrocious, forcing banks to fire even more (or cause various unnamed market makers to accidentally activate 1000x buy algos).

A further recap from SocGen:

We again face an almost exclusively US and UK calendar today, as risk assets and currencies struggle to make up their minds as to whether to push on to March highs (S&P), or let prices languish in a narrow range until we get word from Spain (bailout) and Fed chairman Bernanke (on 30 August). Meanwhile, the corrective move higher in core bond yields continues as 10y Bunds vault 1.55%.

With the exception of the final eurozone CPI (which came in as expected), we rely on impromptu comments from Europe's capitals with regards to the future of Greece and Spain, but statements of the last few days have not swayed too many participants over the course of action come September. The suggestion that Greece will try to negotiate a 2-year extension of its austerity programme is now common knowledge and will be the main topic of negotiations next week, when Greek PM Samaras visits his counterparts in Paris and Berlin. If Greece is confident that it can, on its own, re-arrange the EUR20bn or so of funding costs that a 2-year extension would bring, then surely all we need is for Germany and the Troika to agree that the recession has been deeper than anticipated in the March MOU. Hurdle cleared. If only Spain could be as transparent with regards to its intention to tap the bailout funds.

In the UK, stronger labour market data yesterday defied the more pessimistic forecast, confirming that Q2 GDP figures overstated the weakness in the economy. Retail sales are forecast to confirm a moribund state of demand in July.

Another raft of US data today includes initial claims, Philly Fed and housing construction numbers.

 

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Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:05 | 2709532 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Same crap......new day.

 

As soon as Merkel pops for the next bailout....we can get this show on the read.

 

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:17 | 2709550 tabasco71
tabasco71's picture

Merkel on hols + Olympics = things aren't so bad after all

Merkel returns + Show on Road = Para Olympics

(sorry para's)

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 10:11 | 2710113 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Getting a bailout is like winning the Paralympics.

Even if you win, ... you're still handicapped!

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:37 | 2709565 dexter bland
dexter bland's picture

Oh yeah and also today the World Gold Council published its Q2 demand statistics which seem to show it IS only central bank buying by Kazakhstan et al that keeps it from collapsing into a heap of cyanide laced tailings:

http://www.gold.org/investment/research/regular_reports/gold_demand_trends/

Look forward to Tyler's spin on the figures. WGC seemed to be struggling to find anything positive.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:41 | 2709569 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

You forgot about China.....it's like this whole big other country.

 

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:53 | 2709585 dexter bland
dexter bland's picture

No China's in their too. Its considered part of the "world", and the figures are all broken down by country.;

Some more info on the incredible China import figures at this link:

http://share.thomsonreuters.com/assets/newsletters/GFMS/InsideGFMS-Issue...

 

 

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:59 | 2709591 dexter bland
Thu, 08/16/2012 - 08:18 | 2709620 tabasco71
tabasco71's picture

Piles of automobiles and apartments too.

Amusing comment re the FT article re shouldn't the copper be stacked in a pyramid shape, instead of cubes... LOL

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:11 | 2709541 Bogdog
Bogdog's picture

EURUSD to 1.22 by the weekend please. C'mon Angela, give us a kiss.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:11 | 2709542 economicfreefall
economicfreefall's picture

Yeah, a few billions here, a few billions there...same old, same old. Well, we do live in interesting times and within let's say 5-6 years we will most likely experience one of the biggest transitions in human history. Let's hope for the better...

http://www.MiningStockValuator.com -portfolio tracking & analysis of gold and silver stocks

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:12 | 2709544 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Just need a little war so assets price go back up...

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:14 | 2709546 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Well, they are already ramming the ES higher.  So, I guess at least some of them woke up.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:35 | 2709551 blindman
blindman's picture

...then this will go down as the most tragic
three-some in the history of the world.
don't laugh, it isn't funny.
!
Ecuador's embassy in UK claims threat over Julian Assange
Rob Hastings

Thursday 16 August 2012
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/ecuadors-embassy-in-uk-cl... ulian-assange-8050602.html
.
from the comment section ..
"Aliend•an hour ago•parent
.
?Flag as inappropriate
Argentina has no case against us regarding the Falklands. However, this story & the threats made to storm the embassy are outrageous & shameful. If they carry it out, then i believe Latin America will unite against us & with due cause too. Expect british embassies to be stormed as well every now & then under excuses of finding criminals in other parts of the world."
.
http://rt.com/on-air/uk-assange-scuffles/
.
live cam

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:23 | 2709553 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

"For the period ended July 28, Sears lost $132 million, or $1.25 per share, for the period ended July 28. That compares with a loss of $146 million, or $1.37 per share, a year ago.

Excluding costs tied to store closings, a pension expense and other items, the company lost 86 cents per share."

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sears-2q-loss-narrows-sales-102338612.html

 

If Sears is a reflection of "stronger" retail sales (and my observations are that they are), the micro- and macro- picture is bleaker then reported MSM. (What else is new?) JCP is in a nosedive and even the Kohls CEO said he is worried about falling revenue in 2H.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:25 | 2709555 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Sears is still around?

 

Crap....the zombie reports are true.

 

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 08:00 | 2709592 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Sears is following the highly successful USPS model.

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:33 | 2709560 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Haha!  I read MOFCOM as MOFOCOM!

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:48 | 2709573 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

It might be the equities market players are paralyzed with fear like deer in headlights

about the whole Euro mess along with oil and corn spiking higher, high sales-to-inventory

ratio and of course the dreaded Hindenberg Omen trigger on July 24th!

Thu, 08/16/2012 - 07:49 | 2709574 Itch
Itch's picture

When do most traders get back from holidays, this is killing me? I placed 18 trades today for a mindblowing 3 pips. Its the end of august they get back, right?

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