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Overnight Sentiment: Another European Summit, Another Japanese Rating Downgrade

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There was some hope that today's European summit would provide some more clarity for something else than just the local caterer's 2012 tax payment. It wont. Per Reuters: "Germany does not believe that jointly issued euro zone bonds offer a solution to the bloc's debt crisis and will not change its stance despite calls from France and other countries to consider such a step, a senior German official said on Tuesday. "That's a firm conviction which will not change in June," the official said at a German government briefing before an informal summit of EU leaders on Wednesday. A second summit will be held at the end of June. The official, requesting anonymity, also said he saw no need for leaders to discuss a loosening of deficit goals for struggling euro zone countries like Greece or Spain, nor to explore new ways for recapitalise vulnerable banks at Wednesday's meeting." In other words absolutely the same as in August 2011 when Europe came, saw, and did nothing. Yes, yes, deja vu. Bottom line: just as Citi predicted, until the bottom falls out of the market, nothing will change. They were right. As for the summit, just recycle the Einhorn chart from below. Elsewhere, the OECD slashed world growth forecasts and now officially sees Europe contracting, something everyone else has known for months. "In its twice-yearly economic outlook, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development forecast that global growth would ease to 3.4 percent this year from 3.6 percent in 2011, before accelerating to 4.2 percent in 2013, in line with its last estimates from late November... The OECD forecast that the 17-member euro zone economy would shrink 0.1 percent this year before posting growth of 0.9 percent in 2013, though regional powerhouse Germany would chalk up growth of 1.2 percent in 2012 and 2.0 percent in 2013." Concluding the overnight news was a meaningless auction of €2.5 billion in 3 and 6 month bills (recall, Bill issuance in LTRO Europe is completely meaningless) in which borrowing rates rose, and a very meaningful downgrade of Japan to A+ from AA, outlook negative, by Fitch which lowered Japan's long-term foreign currency rating to A plus from AA, the local currency rating to A plus from AA minus, and to the country ceiling rating to AA+ from AAA. Yes, Kyle Bass is right. Just a matter of time. Just like with subprime.

More on the downgrade from Reuters:

KEY POINTS:

- The downgrade reflects growing risks for Japan's sovereign credit profile as a result of high and rising public debt ratios, said Andrew Colquhoun, head of Asia-Pacific Sovereigns at Fitch. "The country's fiscal consolidation plan looks leisurely relative even to other fiscally-challenged high-income countries, and implementation is subject to political risk," he said.

- Finance Minister Jun Azumi said the government will make efforts toward implementing social welfare and tax reforms. He was speaking to reporters after the downgrade.

- The dollar rose against the yen after the announcement, now moving around 79.74 versus the yen.

COMMENTARY: TAKESHI SHIBASAKI, CHIEF STRATEGIST, MIZUHO SECURITIES IN TOKYO

"Ratings agencies have been threatening to downgrade Japan since a while back if sales and welfare reform bills fell through, but today's move came as a little bit of a surprise in terms of its timing.

"It will surely serve as a wake-up call for Japanese policymakers but it won't have any impact on financial markets, as with past downgrades by other ratings agencies.

"The downgrade prompted a fall in the yen but overall financial markets are not reacting, and it is unlikely to affect safe-haven fund flows into Japanese government bonds in view of Europe's sovereign debt crisis."

YOSHIMASA MARUYAMA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ITOCHU ECONOMIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE, TOKYO

"Japanese politics may be moving towards increases in the sales tax, but besides boosting income, you also need to curb spending to make public finances healthier.

"Given the current political situation, with politicians remaining reluctant on that front, a ratings downgrade could have been inevitable.

"A ratings cut generally offers politicians a good opportunity to seriously tackle the sales tax debate. But this is probably not the case at the moment in Japan."

IAN STANNARD, HEAD OF EUROPEAN FX STRATEGY, MORGAN STANLEY, LONDON

"The initial market reaction has been to weaken the yen but I don't think that is sustainable. It is likely that the yen will remain strong.

"Foreign investor participation in the JGB market is low, so it is unlikely to have much impact on the FX market from a flow perspective. Also, Japanese investors are very sensitive to relative yields.

"If we see any yield differential moves we could see repatriation flows back into Japan. It will make it more attractive for Japanese investors to stay at home and not invest overseas.

"In such a low yield environment, it doesn't take much of a move to prompt a change in investment decisions."

DEREK HALPENNY, EUROPEAN HEAD OF CURRENCY RESEARCH, BANK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI, LONDON

"Given the political inaction and relatively weaker growth, and no development in regard to sales tax and the fiscal outlook, the downgrade is not a surprise.

"The yen has sold off a little bit, but the history of downgrades of sovereign debt in Japan is that yen selling is not sustained.

"That history and general market conditions would suggest to us that any further selling on this could be used as an opportunity to buy the yen.

"The yen could rebound based on the European situation deteriorating again. We are in a period of lull at the moment ahead of the (EU) summit tomorrow."

TAKAFUMI YAMAWAKI, CHIEF STRATEGIST, JPMORGAN SECURITIES, TOKYO

"The JGB market reaction was limited as market players are not swayed by the Fitch ratings.

"There is no change in the overall picture that worries about Europe's sovereign debt problems are prompting investors to pour money into Japanese government bonds, which are safer assets.

"In the event that Moody's and S&P downgrade to single-A, then some foreign investors may react by selling JGBs."

CHOTARO MORITA, HEAD OF JAPAN FIXED-INCOME RESEARCH, BARCLAYS CAPITAL JAPAN, TOKYO

"Compared to past downgrades, the latest to a single-A status raises uncertainty about how foreign banks reassess risks and review their handling of JGBs.

"But I don't expect an immediate spike in JGB yields as domestic banks that are dominant JGB holders are unlikely to react.

"A downgrade by Fitch alone may not impact much but similar action by other rating agencies may. Moody's and S&P so far seem to have stable views on Japan's ratings so they may not follow suit immediately. But this may change if Japan's handling of tax hike plans stumbles."

 

As for the latest worthless European summit in a long series of worthless European summits, here is the summary:

Oddly enough, we no longer even have any "announced solutions", any promises or any bold statements.

Almomst as if Europe itself has given up.

* * *

Finally, here is BofA with the actual overnight market blow by blow:

Market action

Asian equity markets extended gains for the second day in a row, with the regional benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising the most in one month, on speculation that China and Europe will do more to bolster economic growth. Korean's Kospi registered a solid gain of 1.6%, while the Japanese Nikkei rose 1.1%. The Hang Seng climbed 0.6% and Shanghai Composite increased 1.1%. On the flip side, the Indian Sensex shed 1.0%. 

European equities are trading 0.7% higher in the aggregate. That's slightly below their peak of 1.1% earlier in the day. European markets came off their highs after Fitch lowered Japan's sovereign credit rating one notch to A+ with a negative outlook. Fitch is worried that Japan is not serious enough about tackling the country's debt burden, which is the highest in the world. Investors quickly brushed off the downgrade as they focused on tomorrow's EU meeting, where European heads of state will discuss ways to bolster growth in the Euro area, as well as discuss the situation in Greece. Investors' hopes are high that concrete action will be taken to support growth. In our view, European leaders will, once again, over promise and under deliver. Meanwhile, at home, futures are pointing to a mild sell-off of 0.2% in the S&P 500 later today. That follows the strong 1.6% rally in the index yesterday. 

Treasury yields are backing up across the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 3bps, to 1.77%, while the long bond's yield has spiked 6bp overnight, to 2.87%. In Europe, peripheral yields are rallying. Both the Spanish and Italian 10-years are 13bps lower, but Spain's yield continues to remain above 6%. The safe havens of UK gilts and German bunds are backing up just like US Treasuries. 

Worries about a Greece exit and a possible breakup of the Euro area are supporting the US dollar. The DXY index is 0.2% higher. That is having a negative impact on commodity prices, with crude off 0.5%, to $92.10 a barrel, while gold fell 1%, to $1,577 an ounce.

Overseas data wrap-up

In the UK, consumer price inflation slowed to 3.0% yoy in April from 3.5% in March. That was below consensus expectations for a 3.1% yoy rate. Meanwhile, core inflation was a tad firmer than expected, rising 2.1% yoy in April against market expectations of a 2.0% yoy rate. In the prior month, the core CPI inflation rate stood at 2.5%. The large drop was due to a rolling-off of large base effects in the prior year. Looking ahead, inflation pressures should continue to ease, as the economy remains stagnant and unemployment creeps up this year. 
Today's events

The only thing on the economic calendar today is the release of the existing home sales report at 10 am. It is likely to edge up by 2.5%, to 4.59 million saar, nearly reversing the decline in March. Pending home sales were strong in the first quarter of the year, which should translate to signed contracts in the spring. If the abnormally warm weather boosted activity in the winter, which we suspect it did, we would see signed contracts jump in the winter and closed contracts in the spring. 

 

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Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:09 | 2450210 financial apoca...
financial apocalyptic contagion's picture

nothing new here

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:18 | 2450227 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

Agreed. Different day, same pile.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:25 | 2450233 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

Slightly different. Last year Europe was slow and indecisive. This year they can't even agree on empty platitudes.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 09:05 | 2450452 pismo10
pismo10's picture

MOre debt to solve a debt problem, very smart....

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:11 | 2450212 cnhedge1
cnhedge1's picture

Are concerns over a Greek Euro exit overdone ?
http://www.cnhedge.com/thread-4852-1-1.html

Is the Euro area Credibly on Target?
http://www.cnhedge.com/thread-4838-1-1.html

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:16 | 2450223 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Answer to both...NO, troll.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:11 | 2450213 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

"bitchez!" - Kyle Bass

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:12 | 2450215 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

All the other nations are desperate to spend Germany's money.

What happens when the socialists run out of even Germany's money?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:31 | 2450240 zx12r
zx12r's picture

There will be chaos and war. Just like every other time a freeloading (other people's money) regime fails. The jealousy of the failed state will drive it. The industrious states will be made the scapegoats. The Germans will be castigated as the new jews.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:39 | 2450248 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

A resurgent RC Germany and a compliant Great Britian wil dominate the Eurozone politically. Holy Roman Empire redux as a financial policy. Just wait n' see.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:39 | 2450250 Rusticus
Rusticus's picture

How original, your escape key can't seem to exit those tired '80's cliches.

Germany and it's northern Baltic neighbors are fiscally stronger than the PIIGS to the south  because they have progressive taxation, a cornerstone of socialism. The PIIGS instead chose to adopt accounting gimmickry championed in the '80's by sociopaths that wanted to  have their cake and eat it too.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:56 | 2450271 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Yes, because the Greek people today are demonstrating about the fact that they didn't pay higher taxes during the "good" years. </sarc>

And I think you should take a serious look at the Greek public sector expenditures. It's not just the classic rail network issue, it's the fact that the average public sector employee is paid 1.6x what the average private sector employee is.

Of course, this shouldn't be surprising, given their hyperinflations during WW2 - every time their currency was stabilized (which it was for short durations, due to selling of treasury gold and/or manipulation of the currency), the public sector workers started granting themselves large payrises, as "they deserved a better living".

http://www.amazon.com/Hyperinflation-1941-1946-Studies-Century-European/dp/8772895829

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:15 | 2450217 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

China denies report PBOC can directly buy U.S. treasuries
http://morningwhistle.21cbh.com/html/2012/FinanceMarkets_0522/212363.html

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:16 | 2450224 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Can't we just replace these idiots with cardboard cutouts?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:35 | 2450245 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

and your evidence that such is not already the case is?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:52 | 2450262 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Too many Japanese in this case... They'd be origami instead of cardboard...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:18 | 2450226 Quintus
Quintus's picture

"Almost as if Europe itself has given up"

 

It seems unlikely, but maybe it has occurred to them that every time they interfere with some new 'Solution' or other, the situation just gets worse (LTRO?), and the optimum approach to can-kicking is now to just let things happen at their own pace.  

Of course that does presuppose an acceptance that the end of the line has almost been reached, and I can't see a group of people whose salary depends on maintaining the current structures giving up that easily.

If anything, I'd expect them to be scouting around Berlin for a suitable bunker from which to command their final defence of the Euro.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:33 | 2450243 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

If something brings no solution it is pointless trying it in the vain hope you are wrong. We have had 5 years of throwing money at banks and they have simply booked bonuses and screwed shareholders and failed to revive economies. It is getting really tedious. Time to start shooting bankers and their families

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 08:05 | 2450280 Quintus
Quintus's picture

I agree with you entirely, but it is unusual for Government to refrain from doing something just because it is pointless and/or actively damaging. :-)

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:22 | 2450231 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

....and, another hi-jacking of the futures markets to ensure a glorious positive open.

ES firmly in Ben's kung-fu grip now.  Enjoy the fraud-a-thon.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:31 | 2450239 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

"over promise and under deliver"

Politics. Normal.

You'd think people would wise up and call bullshit. Not a chance.

Over and over again, they fall for fancy talk and lies. Idiots.

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:32 | 2450241 tallen
tallen's picture

Cut the US debt rating already Moodys. Thanks.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:33 | 2450242 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Repeat rinse day. PM's getting another drubbing. Heading for the bathroom with my National Geographic.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:38 | 2450247 Cupid Stunt
Cupid Stunt's picture

Hey ,my divorce lawyers must be working from that graphic.....

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 07:41 | 2450253 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

This Euro summit meeting pronoucement rating downgrade blah blah thing feels like Groundhog Day all over again.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 08:10 | 2450290 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Look at the ES just soar like an eagle....

Wow, it's all real like.  They must have strapped it to that SpaceX rocket this morning.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 09:31 | 2450613 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

I'm bullish on summits.  How do I go about investing in summitry, high-level talks, planning commissions, collaborations, economic development discussions, and trade discussions?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 09:39 | 2450657 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I found a small mermaid in my S.Pellegrino this morning. Put her in the living room aquarium. She's smoking a cigar with her head out of the water and talking to the parrot with a NY dialect. She keeps asking about Utes. I told her, she's crazy, the parrot doesn't know what it says. She's seems glad to be out of Italy.

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 02:52 | 2461475 agagshoes
agagshoes's picture

"A stitch in time saves nine" relates to mending a small tear in Replica Oakley Sunglasses to it becoming a more major repair requiring more thread and time.

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