Overnight Sentiment: Europe Done Broke Again

Tyler Durden's picture

One word: Spain, and more specifically, 6.00%+. That's where Spanish 10 Year bond yields are again, with Spanish CDS soaring to a fresh all time wide of 512 bps (+13.5 bps), and the Spanish-Bund spread blowing out to the widest since November. And to think it was only two days ago that the schizo market interpreted Spain's bank sector nationalization as good news. It may be for the bank sector (for a few days at least), but it sure isn't for the sovereign which would end up onboarding on the risk. Naturally, 48 hours later the market has figured out this fine nuance and is dumping everything Spain related once again. That this is surprising is an overstatement: we have seen all of this before, only last time it was Greece. Hopefully the same playbook works for Spain, and works better. The result - redness everywhere, especially in the aftermath of an implosion, and halt, in Italy's oldest and one of its biggest banks (guess which PIIG is next on the nationalization bandwagon), after Italian prosecutors on Wednesday ordered searches at the headquarters of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and its top shareholder in a probe over alleged market manipulation linked to Monte Paschi's 2007 purchase of smaller peer Antonveneta. From Reuters: "Prosecutors in Siena, where Monte dei Paschi is based, said in a statement the offices of several Italian and foreign financial institutions based in Italy were also being searched by financial police as well as private homes, without elaborating. They said the searches were part of an investigation into possible market manipulation and obstructing the work of regulators with regard to raising the funds to buy Antonveneta." But probably the worst news comes from Bank of America which summarizes the Greek situation as follows: "If another election takes place, as seems very likely, Syriza could win. Their populist rhetoric is gaining momentum in Greece. Moreover, left voters from the Communist Party of Greece and Democratic Left are likely to vote for Syriza given its chance to win." Which naturally, is Europe's biggest nightmare. Sorry to say, but Europe appears very much unfixed and is about to break even more.

Full overnight report from BofA:

Market action

The sell off in equities continued as political tension in Greece heightened concerns that Europe's debt crisis may worsen, weakening the outlook for exporters in Asia. That sent Asian markets in the red with the lead taken by the Shanghai Composite which closed 1.7% lower. The Japanese Nikkei ended 1.5% down, the Korean Kospi lost 0.9% and the Hang Seng shed 0.8%. Meanwhile, the Indian markets followed the rest of the region lower with the Sensex trading lower by 0.4%.

Weakened by the political uncertainty in Greece, European equities are trading down 0.6%. As we note in more detail on page two, the left party Syriza will try to form a coalition government today. We do not expect them to succeed, as only the Democratic Left has so far agreed to support them. The region's blue chips are underperforming the broader market down 0.7%. Shares listed in London are down 0.4%, down 0.6% in France while shares listed on the German DAX are up 0.1%.

At home, S&P closed 0.6% lower yesterday, with the futures indicating a lower opening today as well. In bondland, US treasuries are bid with the 10-year yield down 2bp to 1.82% while in Europe the Italian 10-year is trading at 5.51% after rising 9bp and Spain's 10-year note is currently 5.96% after jumping 17.4bp.

The dollar has strengthened by 0.2% against the major currencies on safe-haven demand. In commodities space, crude is lower by 0.6% to $96.42 while gold has fallen further by 1.3% to $1584.62.

Overseas data wrap-up

Exports from Germany unexpectedly rose 0.9% mom in March. Consensus was looking for a decline of 0.5% mom in today's report. Today's increase marks the third consecutive increase and puts first quarter exports 2.7% above the fourth quarter level. German exports continue to remain a bright spot in the Euro area as the country benefits from strong demand from emerging markets.

Greece update

  • Left party Syriza will try to form a coalition government today. We do not expect them to succeed, as only the Democratic Left has so far agreed to support them. Moreover, the two main parties (New Democracy and PASOK) strongly disagree with Syriza's call to stop the current program, stop paying Greece's debt, not to implement the envisioned austerity measures, take back labor market reforms already implemented, and nationalize banks.
  • Reports in Greece suggest that head of PASOK Mr. Venizelos will not try to form a coalition government if Syriza fails. This means that the next step is a meeting with all political leaders with the President Papoulias, most likely this week, in a last effort for a coalition government. If this fails, another election on June 10 or 17 appears inevitable.
  • If another election takes place, as seems very likely, Syriza could win. Their populist rhetoric is gaining momentum in Greece. Moreover, left voters from the Communist Party of Greece and Democratic Left are likely to vote for Syriza given its chance to win. In this case, either Syriza will form a left coalition government after the elections, or Greece will need another election again if no government is formed. Clearly, very negative scenarios.
  • What can go right? A strong message from the rest of the euro area, particularly from France, that the next election is effectively a referendum on the euro could help focus minds in Greece. Also, small parties that support the program but did not reach the required threshold to elect parliamentarians in the elections are discussing plans to merge. This could increase the chances of a coalition in support of the program. Finally, part of the 35% percent of the population that did not vote last Sunday could vote this time, leading to a different outcome. However, it is not clear how they might vote.

Today's events

At 10:00 am, wholesale inventories for March are released. Consensus is looking for a 0.6% mom increase in inventories that's down from the 0.9% mom pace recorded in February.

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evolutionx's picture

 EU-Bank Panic

ECB Fear Indicator: record

Banks deposited over 823  billion with the ECB

jumped 41 Billion on one day!


Bunds 1,53%

Spain over 6%



Tao 4 the Show's picture

Your site would be much better if it included a plot of the fear indicator. Single values don't mean much.

bdc63's picture

"Europe done broke again"

... Europe done never got fixed ...


ziggy59's picture

Maybe police looking for 5 Trillion in U.S. bonds ...

cossack55's picture

They may wish to ask the Dragon Family.

fonzannoon's picture

It is pretty funny how Bernanke has been saying every month that he will absolutely act if ncecessary and the market is acting as if he won't now. So if he does act he has no credibility and if he does not act he has no credibility. I guess he has no credibility.

ciscokid's picture

Oppps, were are BROKE!!!!

scatterbrains's picture

Is this a paper slap down in the pm's or are they signaling the Bernank is going to sit on his hands unless the Euro blows? Don't forget the CFTC hasn't spiked margins in the pm's yet either.... remember they lowered them a few weeks ago.

cossack55's picture

Its ALL about paper.  Hard to invest when one is inundated by fools and crooks.

StychoKiller's picture

Consider the following hypotheticals:  Far east countries threaten to dump Trillions of T-Bills onto the bond markets unless the price of gold is driven down.  The Bernank gets on the phone and directs JPM to sell naked shorts for Au until the price meets the far east's goals.  Then 100's of tons of Au get bought up and head east; another Au cartel bank gets sucked dry of all its Au.  Price starts to rise again until the far east gets hungry for another Au transfusion; rinse & repeat !

PORTUGALIA's picture

God created EUROPE and EUROPE create the WORLD... IF EUROPE is broke ...what do you think will happen to the world?! ... Oh wait ... Maybe the inteligent americans will save us all , they are exelent in administrating debt, only 16 trillion and counting.

bdc63's picture

Really ... so that's how it went down ... God created Europe, and then I guess he got tired by that 7th day, so he left creating the rest of the world up to the Europeans ... who I guess then got tired and haven't created anything of real value (save for Monty Python) since.  Thanks for clearing that all up for me -- I think I get it now.

... I genuflect in your general direction ...

hiper66's picture

Bullish on gated communities

youngman's picture

"Their populist rhetoric is gaining momentum in Greece. Moreover, left voters from the Communist Party of Greece and Democratic Left are likely to vote for Syriza given its chance to win"

This is Obama´s game plan..destroy the country...blame the "rich"....take control.....never give it back

LawsofPhysics's picture

Another sheep that still believes in the two-party lie.  Yeah, Obama's behind all this.  Moron, control of this country by the people died in 1913 along with their citizenship.  Wake the fuck up, you are a tenant of the Corporation of the United States of America, now get back on that wheel and run.

MarsInScorpio's picture

Actually, Obama's game plan is to be the black George Wallace.


You may recall Wallace lost his first run for governor of Alabama. His famous quote: "I'll never be out-niggered again."


He wasn't, and he remained governor, de jure or de facto, until the day he died.


Now Obama is not going to allowed himself to be out-whitied. George Zimmerman is just the poor smuck who is the object of Obama's Black Racist game-plan.


Never before did the Black Racists have such an animal as a "White" Hispanic. (As opposed to a Black Hispanic from Cuba or the Dominican Republic, a Brown Hispanic from Mexico and parts south, a Yellow Hispanic from Peru, or a Red Hispanic from the American SW . . .)


Not only do the Black Racists have this misbegotten racial classification, but the LSM and Hispanic pressure-groups themselves are letting it fly. Funny how they refuse to use the same logic to call Obama a White Black, but hypocrisy is nothing new to them.


So Obama will try to turn out votes through his Black Racist proxies: Sharpton, Jackson, and Wright. MSNBC will give this group all the airtime they want as it desperately sells its soul for ratings.


Meanwhile, the reality that Class Warfare already exists in America will be exploited as well. The truth is that the Ultra-Rich Class was been at war with the Middle Class since the unions' heydays. With both political parties nothing but proxies for the Ultra-Rich (despite the Democrats faux concern for unions), they are continuing to vaporize the Middle Class, and the Ultra-Rich no longer have any meaningful legal constraints placed upon them. From the Constitution on down, they can do whatever they want (except screw each other, a la Maddox), with no fear whatsoever of any criminal - and most civil - consequences no matter how public the violation (see Corzine).


America The Dream is over. It died with the ascension of Kennedy, and it's never coming back. It will exist until the fall of Western civilization, which is what you are witnessing starting in Europe.


So racial disharmony is Obama's game-plan, just as it was Wallace's. So far, it's working.



Global Hunter's picture

I am surprised that anybody is surprised by this

green_dreams's picture

Europe dun goof'd again?

Reaction: bullish.