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Overnight Sentiment - German Confidence High In Spite Of Everything
When in doubt how to cause an algorithmic buying spree, go for the lower common denominator: issue bills, or have a confidence index beat expectations. We had Spanish Bills cause a 200 point DJIA melt up earlier in the week, which means today we get confidence, specifically that of Germany's Ifo Business Survey. While Germany's various PMI may still be declining, and the market going nowhere in a hurry, not to mention international trade especially involving China sliding, if there is one thing German manufacturers have in copious amount, it is confidence. In April, the Ifo index edged higher in April to a level of 109.9 after 109.8 in March, defying consensus expectations of a decline to 109.5, and climbing to the highest level since last July. The assessment of current conditions also increased slightly to 117.5 after 117.4 (close to two standard-deviations above the long-term average). Business expectations remained stable at 102.7 (0.6 standard deviations above historical average). And since algos only care about headlines on the margin this was enough to light a rocket under the EURUSD, however briefly and send it, and the US futures by implication, over 1.3200. Once again, even Goldman warns against reading much into these data: "The somewhat more muted signals coming from the PMI surveys caution against taking the Ifo at face value and there are not enough hard data available for Q1 that show which survey is the better guide at this point to the underlying momentum of the German economy." That's ok, A desperate for any good news Europe will take it.
Europe will also take soaring UK Retail sales, which paradoxically rose by 1.8% on expectations of a 0.5%, primarily due to the already documented government induced gas buying panic, and of course record warm weather. As Bloomberg explains: "U.K. retail sales rose at the fastest pace for more than a yr in March as the warmest March for half a century boosted purchases of clothing and gardening equipment, panic buying lifted auto-fuel demand."
These two events alone have set the mood for today's trading day, which has pushed futures to a level higher than before yesterday's material claims miss.
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SURPRISE!
It's just the weather here in Europe which is starting to get warm and everybody gets out drinking cool beer in the sun. Just wait until the price of beer in Germany hits 5 euro for a glas. DIE GREKISCHEN DUMKOPF!!
The IfO is a joke--everybody in Germany knows that. It is like a Goldman upgrade--something just meant for a momentary pump for traders to get out of losing positions. If you really want to know German "sentiment" check out the German EMNID poll.
Ich wiederhole: iFo ist ein Scherz.
This sentiment (the mood of the economy) LAGS the markets by a few months. In other words, the markets are a strong indicator of what will come in a few months.
Take a look at the SP500 Daily. We've seen an almost 20% rise since Dec 2011 - on very very low volume. Market moves like this fool the herd into believing the recovery is on.
http://bullandbearmash.com/index/sp-500/daily/
And ergo, we get these absurd reports like everything is great.
The Ifo contributors evidently know something we don't - like an imminent massive € devaluation that makes BMWs available in China for 2 months' salary.
Why wouldn't the Germans be confident? In a few years they will have conquered Europe without having fired a single shot.
And since the PIIGSF do not have any assets left, they will have to send their daughters to Germany´s FKK Clubs (basically brothels) to work the debt off!
The Germans are confident that they will have to bail the rest of Europe out.
Germans drink beer for breakfast... Hence, the optimism...
In the meantime from the live ticker: Italy has an increase in non performing loans by 16,5% to 107,6 billion € for Feb y/y.
Where has the much vaunted strong and stable Italian domestic credit market vanished to?
The Eurozone countries are salivating at decent economic news out of Germany because it means their cash cow isn't dead yet ... it's still twitching.
Overnight Sentiment: German Confidence "Lies" In Spite Of Everything
There...fixed.
Here is a sobering reminder for the beer-loving Germans:
"By December 2011, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, former vice president of Goldman Sachs Europe, was able to approve a 500 billion Euro bailout for European banks without asking anyone’s permission. And in January 2012, a permanent rescue funding program called the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) was passed in the dead of night with barely even a mention in the press. The ESM imposes an open-ended debt on EU member governments, putting taxpayers on the hook for whatever the ESM’s Eurocrat overseers demand. The bankers’ coup has triumphed in Europe seemingly without a fight. The ESM is cheered by Eurozone governments, their creditors, and “the market” alike, because it means investors will keep buying sovereign debt. All is sacrificed to the demands of the creditors, because where else can the money be had to float the crippling debts of the Eurozone governments?....On the 21st of December, the ECB “lent” 489 billion euros to European Banks at the extremely generous rate of just 1% over 3 years. I say “lent”, but in reality, they just ran the printing presses. The ECB doesn’t have the money to lend. It’s Quantitative Easing again. The money was gobbled up virtually instantaneously by a total of 523 banks. It’s complete madness."
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=30403
Prost!!!
The global con game front and center again. Devised by the Wall Street trash it has now spread the world over so no one knows how or where to invest as the roller coaster of lies and deception continue to move markess in seconds. In previous years this would be called fraud and manipulation but in todays world where everything out of politicians mouths it a lie this is now known as an algo game rather than complete deception as we would otherwise call it.
"German Confidence High"
Like one Russian officer said back in 1942 in Stalingrad: "Germans are funny people. They came here to Stalingrad expecting to have a boardwalk."
Shall I say more? Historically, German foreign policies were no different from Iraqi Saddam Hussein. They always go from euphoria to desperation.
Now, Germans expect to rule Europe? It is once again "Spring time for Hitlet and Germany..."