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Overnight Sentiment: Quiet With A Chance Of Excess Volatility After Apple Reports

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It' quiet out there... Too quiet, as everyone is awaiting the most important earning number of the quarter - that of Apple. Everything else is secondary. Here is how the secondary data is driving the market so far in the trading session.

From Bank of America:

Market action

Asian equity markets finished mixed on concerns about political uncertainty in Europe. Yesterday the Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte tendered his cabinet's resignation after the collapse of budget austerity talks. One implication of the collapse of the Netherlands government is that it could create some difficulties in ratifying the fiscal compact.

Looking at the individual markets, the Japanese Nikkei fell 0.8% while the Korean Kospi lost 0.5%. On the flip side, the Indian Sensex managed to rise 0.6% and the Hang Seng was lifted 0.3%. The Shanghai Composite finished flat.

In Europe, equities are rallying sharply up 0.7% in the aggregate. The best performing major European market is the French CAC up 0.9%. At home, futures are pointing to a bounceback from yesterday's 0.8% drop in the S&P 500. Futures are pointing to a 0.4% higher open today.

In bondland, Treasury yields are backing up 1 basis point across the curve with the 10-year yield currently trading at 1.94% while the long bond is trading at 3.09%. In Europe, the UK gilt is 1bp higher as well (yielding 2.13%) and the German bund is up 3bp to 1.68%. Yields on the Periphery's debt are lower -Spain's 10-year note is 8bp lower at 5.87%.

After rallying yesterday the dollar is weakening against a basket of other major currencies. The DXY index is down 0.1%. Commodities are mixed with WTI crude oil basically flat and gold down 45 cents an ounce at $1,638.38.

Overseas data wrap-up

Australia's inflation figure for the first quarter moderated to 3.1% yoy in the first quarter from 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2011 opening the way for the RBA, the country's central bank, to cut rates. Coupled with the deteriorating outlook for employment our Australian economist expect the RBA to cut rates again at next month's meeting.

Spain's housing market continues to deteriorate. The number of Spanish mortgages issued to buy homes fell 47.1% from a year earlier in February. High unemployment coupled with the country's economy falling further into recession and tighter credit will make it increasing difficult for households to purchase a home. Home prices should fall further. The weakness in the housing sector has implications for the country's banking sector. To read more take a look at: Spanish Banks, 19 April 2012.

Today's events

Both economic indicators we'll be sorting through today are released at 10:00 am: the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for April and the New Home Sales report for March. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is expected to moderate to a three-month low of 69.0 in April from 70.2 in March. That is a historical weak level of confidence at this stage in an expansion. Meanwhile, we expect new home sales to rise 0.7% in March to 315,000 from 313,000 in the prior month.

 

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Tue, 04/24/2012 - 06:52 | 2369266 valley chick
valley chick's picture

CONfidence numbers today...bullish!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 07:26 | 2369293 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Today will be the first day that AAPL shows how much they miss Jobs!  Big miss coming!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:10 | 2369341 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

 

 

Up, down, who cares...the deadfish analyst will weave it into a buy call.  I mean the did until RCA took it's last breath.

Gota say many I know are none to happy to learn ( way late ) that their toys can't be 'upgraded' and the batteries can't be replaced either.  A throw away toy for the snobs is how one person put it.  Me, would not touch an apple product not after learning all the extream right wing and hate groups King bill funded behind closed doors...like prop 8 and other anti-right bills, anti choice bills, etc.   Go check it out and stop drinking the appleaide with extra sugar.  And, don't for get the Saudi Royal Family has a major stake in apple and there is likely no more repressive government in the world than them.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:16 | 2369350 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Me, would not touch an apple product not after learning all the extream right wing and hate groups

 

I knew if we just kept quite someone would crack.

 

...........It' quiet out there... Too quiet,

 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:25 | 2369360 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I find it hard to believe Apple can actually say 'We got last earnings, plus a bunch more now and out into the future exponential rising outlook'...I'll laugh if I see it. 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 07:11 | 2369280 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

I remember AAPL to sell off after every earnings report?!?!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:51 | 2369449 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

One would wonder if all the aapl carnage recently was based on insider information about the upcoming numbers, but of course the SEC would never allow that. I'm glad they were able to save me from the like of Martha Stewart.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 07:17 | 2369284 max2205
max2205's picture

At this stage of expansion.....? Expansion?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:35 | 2369363 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whats left for Apple to expand to, a village deep in uncharted Borneo?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:53 | 2369455 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The penguins in Antartica don't own a single iPod and we know how they like to dance.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:00 | 2369474 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

I understand the IMF is building a branch office there.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 07:22 | 2369287 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

3 completely manipulated events today. The first "success", Spainish bonds, should clue you as to how the other two will be fixed.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 07:20 | 2369288 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

If this is the only thing that investors are looking at today, we're worse than I thought. Pathetic!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:24 | 2369370 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea its come down to looking for a bit of unsmoked crack in a discarded pipe.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:13 | 2369347 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Future shave their rally cap on.. though majority of overnight gains are in the commodity space - silver up 1.4 percent- 

http://hedge.ly/IBmeyX

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:36 | 2369386 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its because things are so much better today from yesterday when German GDP blew apart, Russian stock markets went off line, and the Dutch govt resigned en mass, and the other Wall St darling NFLX shit the bed, and the DOW gave up a huge whopping -100...today WAY better today than yesterday, as futures have almost added all that back.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:58 | 2369465 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Good to have yesterday's nonsense behind us.  None of that stuff really matters in the big picture anyway.  Now if Apple can come within 10% of the lowest projection out there, I think we should reasonably expect a 250-300 gain in the dow by the crack of noon.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:25 | 2369375 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Apple reports at what time??

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:00 | 2369479 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

After maket close.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:29 | 2369380 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Market action seems a bit convoluted at the moment.  10Y movement is saying no QE, commodities/equites late day were showing a QE trade.  Wed will be an interesting day indeed.

Pre-market seems to be showing a QE off trade. 

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:31 | 2369391 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well all that matters is QE, which has been rumored since the markets were 45% lower....trade the mystical QE vapors....ride the snake!

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 08:57 | 2369463 q99x2
q99x2's picture

AAPL is too big to fail. It has all the FED fiat in it now.

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:07 | 2369502 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

True.  Apple has passed the point where they need to produce products.  Now its simply a question of managing massive amounts of capital.

The next evolutionary step for Apple:  iBank.

Why would you put your money anywhere else?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 09:44 | 2369636 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Apple has rocketed up after every earnings report. Weird. Why should today be any different?

Tue, 04/24/2012 - 13:05 | 2370427 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

ah --- 510/530 

hmmm

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