Overnight Sentiment: Straws Cracking
Confirming that the market is now completely insane is a rehash of the actual catalyst data flow: recall that yesterday the one thing that pushed stocks higher, as described in Clutching at Straws, was the surge in German factory orders. Today, we get another huge beat of expectations in German Industrial Production and everything is red. Although now that US traders, most of them originating at Liberty 33, are starting to walk in, we may get yet another of the much anticipated and largely loved turns from a blood red premarket to green everywhere.
Goldman summarizes the German Industrial production number:
German industrial production rose 2.8%mom after an upwardly revised -0.3% (revised up from -1.3% initially); BBG consensus was +0.8%.
Activity in the construction sector jumped 30.7%mom after the cold-weather induced -16.9% drop in February.
Manufacturing output also increased strongly, rising +1.5%mom after +0.2%.
This is a strong report and, together with yesterday's manufacturing order data, suggests a solid underlying growth of the German industrial sector.
And from BofA, a full market recap:
Asian equity markets finished mixed today. The Japanese Nikkei ended 0.7% higher, while the Korean Kospi moved up 0.5%. On the flip side, the Hang Seng finished down 0.3%, as property developers declined amid plunging real estate sales. The Shanghai Composite shed 0.1% and the Indian Sensex lost 2.1%.
Political uncertainty continues to weigh on European equity markets, in the aggregate, equities are down 0.9%. In Greece, the leader of the New Democracy party, Mr. Antonis Samaras, failed to form a government. Since he has failed to form a coalition, the President has now asked Mr. Tsipras, the leader of Siriza, to form a government. If Mr. Tsipras also fails to form a government, then Mr. Venizelos, the leader of PASOK will attempt to form a government. If all three leaders fail, the President will call all three of them together to urge an agreement for a coalition government. If all these efforts fail, another election would have to take place in about a month, which could be followed by another election and so on, until a government is formed. Overall political uncertainty is high and Greece's bailout program and its future in the Euro area are at risk. To read more, see today's European Economic Daily.
At home, futures are set to follow the European equities lower. S&P 500 futures are pointing to a 0.6% lower open today. In bondland, Treasuries are bid across the curve, with the 10-year yield currently trading at 1.84%. In Europe, UK gilts and German bunds are bid at 1.96% and 1.57%, respectively.
The dollar is strong against other major currencies and is up by 0.3%. This continues having a negative impact on commodity prices. Crude is down 1.1%, falling to $96.83, while gold is weaker by 0.5%, down to $1,630.
Overseas data wrap-up
Weaker demand from the Euro area countries slipping into recession is beginning to way on their neighbors. Industrial production in Norway slipped 0.7% mom in March, following a revised higher 0.3% drop (originally reported as a 0.6% contraction).