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The Pain In Spain In Charts

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As Spanish 10Y bond spreads break back above 350bps over Bunds for the first time in three weeks (having jumped over 10% so far this year alone), it is clear that its not all sangria and siestas in the land of the bull...and matador. With unemployment at record levels (youth unemployment at over 40%), industrial production back at record lows - along with retail sales, and a still collapsing housing and construction space, we agree with JPMorgan, in their 2012 Outlook, that there is no doubt that there are large budget deficit and current account deficit adjustments still to come. The pain in Spain is plain for all to see in the following six charts and as Michael Cembalest notes: "If there are socioeconomic limits to how much austerity a country can take in order to remain in a currency union, we are likely to find out in Spain."

Source: JPMorgan, (c73) Markit, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, November 2011, (c74) Eurostat, October 2011, (c75) Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Haver Analytics, October 2011 (c76) Oficemen, October 2011, (c77) Eurostat, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, October 2011, (c78) Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Haver Analytics, Q3 2011

 

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Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:13 | 2032455 Irish66
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cement consumption. that's a first for me

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:26 | 2032490 TruthHunter
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"Cement Consumption"

You only have to eat it once...

So it would be a last for you too!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:33 | 2032501 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Long cement shoes (for central bankers)

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:42 | 2032528 Belarusian Bull
Belarusian Bull's picture

The water level should be sufficient as well. Enough to cover their nose.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:52 | 2032731 The Big Ching-aso
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Oh crap Josefina!

The Ca-Ca is about to hit the abanico.

 

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:05 | 2032843 The Swedish Chef
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Abanico is "hand fan" and I don´t really think that is what is implied in that expression...

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:41 | 2032968 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

It applies to electrics too there chemosabe since they didn't have electrics when spanish became a language.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:18 | 2033100 The Swedish Chef
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Well, considering that my father was Spaniard and that I´ve spent a big portion of my childhood in Castille I should know what an "abanico" is in Spain, right? I guarantee that no Spaniard will ever mean anything but "hand fan" when he says "abanico"

 

What the people south of the US border says totally different. They have a lot of old expressions, depending on wich country they come from. Words like "carro" for cars or "plata" for money are widely used in Latin America for "car" or "money whilst in Spain they mean "cart" and "silver"

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:29 | 2032493 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

The beauty of the Spanish situation, which few have gone into deeper than the LaRouche folks (regardless of what you think of his policies etc., their research is first grade), is that a lot of the froth of the past decade of easy money was moved to South America through Spain via Santander. 

The fact that it is that link and everything it imples that will ultimately drag Spain down is just LOADED with irony. And as we will see, Gold and Silver will have a lot to do with it, making the irony even greater.

Cement Vs. Un-employment. I guess Spain had a huge construction worker youth brigade eh?

ori

/2012-the-year-of-anomaly/

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:32 | 2032500 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Santander swallowed a lot of detritus in 2008. Their real estate has not been written down at all. These guys are gonna be eatin' sawdust enchiladas.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:35 | 2032505 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Precisely Thomas. Sawdust Enchiladas, funny!

ori

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:16 | 2032875 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

Santander owns a bunch of toll roads in Texas.

(That's just un-Texan.)

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:14 | 2032458 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Nice series of charts.  It's a good thing America has decoupled from....from everything ;)

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:43 | 2032761 midtowng
midtowng's picture

I'd like to see those charts side by side with ones from Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:14 | 2032459 Rastadamus
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Where's Francisco Franco when you need him?

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:18 | 2032468 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Still dead, according to Chevy Chase and Jane Curtain's Weekend Update.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:35 | 2032495 hedgeless_horseman
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"Madame, all stories, if continued far enough, end in death, and he is no true-story teller who would keep that from you."
 

-Ernest Hemingway, Death in the Afternoon

For me, it is no coincidence that when Spain quit bullfighting she lost her mojo.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:49 | 2032547 bank guy in Brussels
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In Spain, the autonomous Catalonia region, Barcelona and environs, has outlawed bullfighting, but not the entire nation of Spain.

Catalonia is somewhat like Québec in Canada, separate language and cultural region, some of whose residents would like to be independent.

Catalan is also the official language of the small nation of Andorra, the tax haven and resort etc., wedged between Spain and France in the Pyrenees mountains.

But bullfighting still continues its bloody animal-tormenting theatre ... one slogan on the anti-bullighting posters, 'Bullfighting is bullshit.'

There are better ways to show one's manliness.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:05 | 2032608 THE DORK OF CORK
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Andorra is the biggest shithole in the mainly beautiful Pyrennes mountains - ski stations as far as the eye can see.

A high place for lowly born people.

The poltical correctness crowd is everywhere now - with the Drama of Spain now no more.

The only decent investment Spain has made in the last 5 years was the Madrid to Barcelona high speed railway.

It has destroyed the airlines.

Spain should never have given up its nuclear programme expansion - its ass is hanging out via energy imports now.

The "savings" in nuclear capital spend were merely redirected to real estate.................................

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:22 | 2032894 Reptil
Reptil's picture

They've invested quite a lot in solar. And nuclear is just too expensive (requires subsedies).

In the longer run it's a wise move. In the short run they're fucked anyway, and they know it.

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:34 | 2033025 THE DORK OF CORK
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Solar provides almost nothing - you cannot even see it on small Graphs and the power disappears will the sun goes down  - funny that.

 Spains pre 1983 nuclear investment - is still showing big on their energy graphs however.

You are mistaken about Nuclear - France has the cheapest electircity in Europe and is now laying a 1400 MW cable through the Pyrennes so that the desperate Spanish can get their hands on cheap energy.

www.energy.eu

Heres a old graph but trust me solar has not added much.

 

www.iea.org/stats/pdf_graphs/ESTPESPI.pdf

 

 

 

 www.publics.bg/en/news/5996/

 

 

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:03 | 2032835 The Swedish Chef
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And at the same time two regions has put cultural heritage safe guards on bull fighting. Fuck catalanes. Give them their indipendence now, thay aren´t Spaniards anyway.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:22 | 2032475 Don Diego
Don Diego's picture

we are looking for a replacement

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:53 | 2032561 Cast Iron Skillet
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Banksters?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:24 | 2032682 Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

Hitler tried the strategy of picking off countries one by one -

The central banksters are engaged in a strategy of picking off countries one by one.....

Those 2 entities seem to have more in common than most people think.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:17 | 2032462 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

youth unemployment at over 40%

Seems to me people have understood that to kill the beast that are government and the banks, you must starve them of money. The less you work, the less you pay taxes, the faster they gonna die.

What we need is a worldwide strike till the banks and governments die.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:24 | 2032483 Hober Mallow
Hober Mallow's picture

You can easily cut half of the public employees in Spain and life will be more or less the same.

I am witness to their uselessness.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:17 | 2032463 Dick Darlington
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And yet somehow, magically and mystically, they keep showing "expanding" GDP...

Now where's that "anonymous blogger"? I wanna see an update on the report showing another opinion of the spanish GDP.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:17 | 2032464 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Currency Chaos in Iran

http://news.yahoo.com/iran-currency-soars-21-central-bank-intervention-0...

'Nothing to do with sanctions' :*) 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:22 | 2032478 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Gold ounce in Rial just hit 27 million.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:26 | 2032487 Non Passaran
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Some awesome quotes in that piece :-)

-------

He imputed the sharp movements to domestic shifts in capital, for instance into the real estate sector.

The head of the central bank, Mahmoud Bahmani, said on Tuesday that the sudden fall of the rial was "due to psychological effects."

"I declare absolutely that the international sanctions have not created any economic problem for the country. The enemies know that and are trying to create psychological tensions. But we won't play their game," Bahmani said.

He urged Iranians to refrain from buying dollars.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:55 | 2032577 lolmao500
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The head of the central bank, Mahmoud Bahmani, said on Tuesday that the sudden fall of the rial was "due to psychological effects."

Yeah well 90% of the economy is ``due to psychological effects``...

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:12 | 2032631 WonderDawg
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And 100% of the "markets".

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:18 | 2032466 Clam McCain
Clam McCain's picture

bullish female dogs

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:22 | 2032476 San Diego Gold Bug
San Diego Gold Bug's picture

The printing presses will have to work overtime in 2012!  Special shout out to the ZH reader who mentioned comparegoldprices.com last month.  Saved me some good bank already.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:13 | 2032636 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You're pumping that website like a monkey on meth.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:22 | 2032477 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Just a bump in the road.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:22 | 2032479 Hober Mallow
Hober Mallow's picture

There must be some generals still available that can show the boot to the Spanish

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:30 | 2032480 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So I guess its safe to assume that Spain isn't the one jamming the shit out of oil at the moment.

*edit*The top in oil has been confirmed. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-will-never-fall-again-2012-01-04?link=MW_home_latest_news

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:24 | 2032482 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

You cant short financials in SPain....

WE ARE SHORT BANNED¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡

 

More Illegal things into these non free market

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:27 | 2032491 GerritB
GerritB's picture

The problem in spain is that they do not care to innovate and complain to much about how bad things are going in stead of doing something about it.

A Trabajar COnjos!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:30 | 2032711 mjk0259
mjk0259's picture

Been that way for a thousand years and they still prosper somehow - I guess by having a good climate and selling real estate to the Northerner's.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:32 | 2032499 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

So when will Rajoy make an appearance ? Will Spain start deporting Latin Americans and Africans to free up employment space ?  There is not really a lot Spain can do since its budget depends on EU Agricultural Subsidies even before they think of ECB Subsidy and Economic Aid from European States.......it is not as if their pre-Bust Budget wasn't padded with EU funding

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:18 | 2032639 Don Diego
Don Diego's picture

one of their first measures is to suspend the month-long August vacation of the ministry of Justice so that they can speed up the nationalization of the 5 million unemployed or minimum wage africans and latin americans.

Soon the social services of the rest of the EU are going to be swamped with africans and latins with Spanish passports demanding allocations.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:36 | 2032509 Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

So, you are saying that cement producers in Spain are cheap now?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:49 | 2032546 Agent P
Agent P's picture

The pain in Spain will fall mainly on the plain.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:53 | 2032567 bank guy in Brussels
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Famous scene from 'My Fair Lady' - Pygmalion - with the song:

« The rain in Spain stays mainly in the plain ... »

« By George, she's got it! ... »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVmU3iANbgk

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:54 | 2032560 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

No pain no gain, bitchez!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:54 | 2032568 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I ain't got no Sangaria
I ain't got no cystal ball
Well I had a million (trillion?) dollars but I
Spent it all!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:16 | 2032648 Don Diego
Don Diego's picture

Airport of Huesca: 4 passengers in November....

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:53 | 2032801 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

How abt the prison at Puig de Les Bases, Figueres. New facility but no prisoners.

Judge rules: money well spent!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:00 | 2032827 The Swedish Chef
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Lack of criminals to inprison is hardly Spain´s problem. #urdangarin #camps 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:10 | 2033071 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Yeah, it's the lack of money to put them in what's the problem.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:01 | 2032831 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Look also the CIUDAD REAL AIRPORT...Darlington...

Look all the Saving Banks Real Estate Promotions and Land Write downs .....

Bankia is in default

Caixa Catalunya

Banco Popular-Pastor

ALL are Toasted

We need from the IMF more than 350.000 Mn Euros,

 

But its impossible to save ITALY AND SPAIN both, IMPOSSIBLE

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:58 | 2032810 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

D.Diego

Public Waste has been disgusting are we gonna pay it.

Austerity Measures gonna plunge employment creation and consumption growth

 

Comunidades Autonomas like

-Andalucia

-Castilla La Mancha

_Catalunya

-Comunitat Valenciana

-Murcia

and Madrid are all in default.

 

The biggest risk for spain its Subgovernment bond tranch * Specially Catalonian and Valencia Bond Issues, which will need to have debt haircut schemes,

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