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The Pain In Spain In Charts

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As Spanish 10Y bond spreads break back above 350bps over Bunds for the first time in three weeks (having jumped over 10% so far this year alone), it is clear that its not all sangria and siestas in the land of the bull...and matador. With unemployment at record levels (youth unemployment at over 40%), industrial production back at record lows - along with retail sales, and a still collapsing housing and construction space, we agree with JPMorgan, in their 2012 Outlook, that there is no doubt that there are large budget deficit and current account deficit adjustments still to come. The pain in Spain is plain for all to see in the following six charts and as Michael Cembalest notes: "If there are socioeconomic limits to how much austerity a country can take in order to remain in a currency union, we are likely to find out in Spain."

Source: JPMorgan, (c73) Markit, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, November 2011, (c74) Eurostat, October 2011, (c75) Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Haver Analytics, October 2011 (c76) Oficemen, October 2011, (c77) Eurostat, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, October 2011, (c78) Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Haver Analytics, Q3 2011

 


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Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Irish66
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cement consumption. that's a first for me

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment TruthHunter
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"Cement Consumption"

You only have to eat it once...

So it would be a last for you too!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
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Long cement shoes (for central bankers)

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Belarusian Bull
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The water level should be sufficient as well. Enough to cover their nose.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment The Big Ching-aso
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Oh crap Josefina!

The Ca-Ca is about to hit the abanico.

 

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:05 | Link to Comment The Swedish Chef
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Abanico is "hand fan" and I don´t really think that is what is implied in that expression...

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment The Big Ching-aso
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It applies to electrics too there chemosabe since they didn't have electrics when spanish became a language.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:18 | Link to Comment The Swedish Chef
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Well, considering that my father was Spaniard and that I´ve spent a big portion of my childhood in Castille I should know what an "abanico" is in Spain, right? I guarantee that no Spaniard will ever mean anything but "hand fan" when he says "abanico"

 

What the people south of the US border says totally different. They have a lot of old expressions, depending on wich country they come from. Words like "carro" for cars or "plata" for money are widely used in Latin America for "car" or "money whilst in Spain they mean "cart" and "silver"

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
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The beauty of the Spanish situation, which few have gone into deeper than the LaRouche folks (regardless of what you think of his policies etc., their research is first grade), is that a lot of the froth of the past decade of easy money was moved to South America through Spain via Santander. 

The fact that it is that link and everything it imples that will ultimately drag Spain down is just LOADED with irony. And as we will see, Gold and Silver will have a lot to do with it, making the irony even greater.

Cement Vs. Un-employment. I guess Spain had a huge construction worker youth brigade eh?

ori

/2012-the-year-of-anomaly/

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

Santander swallowed a lot of detritus in 2008. Their real estate has not been written down at all. These guys are gonna be eatin' sawdust enchiladas.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Precisely Thomas. Sawdust Enchiladas, funny!

ori

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Newsboy
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Santander owns a bunch of toll roads in Texas.

(That's just un-Texan.)

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Cdad
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Nice series of charts.  It's a good thing America has decoupled from....from everything ;)

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment midtowng
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I'd like to see those charts side by side with ones from Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Rastadamus
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Where's Francisco Franco when you need him?

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
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Still dead, according to Chevy Chase and Jane Curtain's Weekend Update.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
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"Madame, all stories, if continued far enough, end in death, and he is no true-story teller who would keep that from you."
 

-Ernest Hemingway, Death in the Afternoon

For me, it is no coincidence that when Spain quit bullfighting she lost her mojo.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
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In Spain, the autonomous Catalonia region, Barcelona and environs, has outlawed bullfighting, but not the entire nation of Spain.

Catalonia is somewhat like Québec in Canada, separate language and cultural region, some of whose residents would like to be independent.

Catalan is also the official language of the small nation of Andorra, the tax haven and resort etc., wedged between Spain and France in the Pyrenees mountains.

But bullfighting still continues its bloody animal-tormenting theatre ... one slogan on the anti-bullighting posters, 'Bullfighting is bullshit.'

There are better ways to show one's manliness.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
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Andorra is the biggest shithole in the mainly beautiful Pyrennes mountains - ski stations as far as the eye can see.

A high place for lowly born people.

The poltical correctness crowd is everywhere now - with the Drama of Spain now no more.

The only decent investment Spain has made in the last 5 years was the Madrid to Barcelona high speed railway.

It has destroyed the airlines.

Spain should never have given up its nuclear programme expansion - its ass is hanging out via energy imports now.

The "savings" in nuclear capital spend were merely redirected to real estate.................................

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment Reptil
Reptil's picture

They've invested quite a lot in solar. And nuclear is just too expensive (requires subsedies).

In the longer run it's a wise move. In the short run they're fucked anyway, and they know it.

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:34 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
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Solar provides almost nothing - you cannot even see it on small Graphs and the power disappears will the sun goes down  - funny that.

 Spains pre 1983 nuclear investment - is still showing big on their energy graphs however.

You are mistaken about Nuclear - France has the cheapest electircity in Europe and is now laying a 1400 MW cable through the Pyrennes so that the desperate Spanish can get their hands on cheap energy.

www.energy.eu

Heres a old graph but trust me solar has not added much.

 

www.iea.org/stats/pdf_graphs/ESTPESPI.pdf

 

 

 

 www.publics.bg/en/news/5996/

 

 

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:03 | Link to Comment The Swedish Chef
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And at the same time two regions has put cultural heritage safe guards on bull fighting. Fuck catalanes. Give them their indipendence now, thay aren´t Spaniards anyway.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Don Diego
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we are looking for a replacement

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Cast Iron Skillet
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Banksters?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

Hitler tried the strategy of picking off countries one by one -

The central banksters are engaged in a strategy of picking off countries one by one.....

Those 2 entities seem to have more in common than most people think.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment lolmao500
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youth unemployment at over 40%

Seems to me people have understood that to kill the beast that are government and the banks, you must starve them of money. The less you work, the less you pay taxes, the faster they gonna die.

What we need is a worldwide strike till the banks and governments die.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Hober Mallow
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You can easily cut half of the public employees in Spain and life will be more or less the same.

I am witness to their uselessness.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
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And yet somehow, magically and mystically, they keep showing "expanding" GDP...

Now where's that "anonymous blogger"? I wanna see an update on the report showing another opinion of the spanish GDP.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
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Currency Chaos in Iran

http://news.yahoo.com/iran-currency-soars-21-central-bank-intervention-0...

'Nothing to do with sanctions' :*) 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment sudzee
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Gold ounce in Rial just hit 27 million.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
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Some awesome quotes in that piece :-)

-------

He imputed the sharp movements to domestic shifts in capital, for instance into the real estate sector.

The head of the central bank, Mahmoud Bahmani, said on Tuesday that the sudden fall of the rial was "due to psychological effects."

"I declare absolutely that the international sanctions have not created any economic problem for the country. The enemies know that and are trying to create psychological tensions. But we won't play their game," Bahmani said.

He urged Iranians to refrain from buying dollars.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment lolmao500
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The head of the central bank, Mahmoud Bahmani, said on Tuesday that the sudden fall of the rial was "due to psychological effects."

Yeah well 90% of the economy is ``due to psychological effects``...

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:12 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
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And 100% of the "markets".

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Clam McCain
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bullish female dogs

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment San Diego Gold Bug
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The printing presses will have to work overtime in 2012!  Special shout out to the ZH reader who mentioned comparegoldprices.com last month.  Saved me some good bank already.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:13 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
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You're pumping that website like a monkey on meth.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Bill Lumbergh
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Just a bump in the road.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Hober Mallow
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There must be some generals still available that can show the boot to the Spanish

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So I guess its safe to assume that Spain isn't the one jamming the shit out of oil at the moment.

*edit*The top in oil has been confirmed. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-will-never-fall-again-2012-01-04?link=MW_home_latest_news

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

You cant short financials in SPain....

WE ARE SHORT BANNED¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡

 

More Illegal things into these non free market

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment GerritB
GerritB's picture

The problem in spain is that they do not care to innovate and complain to much about how bad things are going in stead of doing something about it.

A Trabajar COnjos!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment mjk0259
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Been that way for a thousand years and they still prosper somehow - I guess by having a good climate and selling real estate to the Northerner's.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

So when will Rajoy make an appearance ? Will Spain start deporting Latin Americans and Africans to free up employment space ?  There is not really a lot Spain can do since its budget depends on EU Agricultural Subsidies even before they think of ECB Subsidy and Economic Aid from European States.......it is not as if their pre-Bust Budget wasn't padded with EU funding

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Don Diego
Don Diego's picture

one of their first measures is to suspend the month-long August vacation of the ministry of Justice so that they can speed up the nationalization of the 5 million unemployed or minimum wage africans and latin americans.

Soon the social services of the rest of the EU are going to be swamped with africans and latins with Spanish passports demanding allocations.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Mitch Comestein
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So, you are saying that cement producers in Spain are cheap now?

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Agent P
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The pain in Spain will fall mainly on the plain.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
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Famous scene from 'My Fair Lady' - Pygmalion - with the song:

« The rain in Spain stays mainly in the plain ... »

« By George, she's got it! ... »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uVmU3iANbgk

 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

No pain no gain, bitchez!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I ain't got no Sangaria
I ain't got no cystal ball
Well I had a million (trillion?) dollars but I
Spent it all!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment Don Diego
Don Diego's picture

Airport of Huesca: 4 passengers in November....

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
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How abt the prison at Puig de Les Bases, Figueres. New facility but no prisoners.

Judge rules: money well spent!

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:00 | Link to Comment The Swedish Chef
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Lack of criminals to inprison is hardly Spain´s problem. #urdangarin #camps 

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 13:10 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
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Yeah, it's the lack of money to put them in what's the problem.

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 12:01 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
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Look also the CIUDAD REAL AIRPORT...Darlington...

Look all the Saving Banks Real Estate Promotions and Land Write downs .....

Bankia is in default

Caixa Catalunya

Banco Popular-Pastor

ALL are Toasted

We need from the IMF more than 350.000 Mn Euros,

 

But its impossible to save ITALY AND SPAIN both, IMPOSSIBLE

Wed, 01/04/2012 - 11:58 | Link to Comment hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

D.Diego

Public Waste has been disgusting are we gonna pay it.

Austerity Measures gonna plunge employment creation and consumption growth

 

Comunidades Autonomas like

-Andalucia

-Castilla La Mancha

_Catalunya

-Comunitat Valenciana

-Murcia

and Madrid are all in default.

 

The biggest risk for spain its Subgovernment bond tranch * Specially Catalonian and Valencia Bond Issues, which will need to have debt haircut schemes,

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