The Pain Trade: Market Sees 70% Chance Of More Fed Easing
Think the Fed will pump more today? You are not alone: an implicit 7 out of 10 market participants do so too (and have for the past 70 or so S&P points, urged by nothing more than hopes of more easing as economic data after economic data has come in worse than expected). Which naturally means the pain trade today will be one of disappointment. But fear not: everyone will be able to sell ahead of everyone else if and when the Fed disappoints. Or so the thinking goes. Others like Citi, Deutsche and now SocGen, believe that a real policy intervention will come in only following a market crash. Bottom line: nobody knows anything. Correction - we know one thing. Absent central bank intervention everyone now agrees that the economy would be a complete disaster, so at least we can stop pretending that the word "recovery" makes any sense.
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