Peak Gas Prices?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Wholesale gasoline futures are down around 8% from their late March peak. This follows the late February peak in WTI crude prices. Joseph Brusuelas of Bloomberg's Economics Brief today asks whether this signals a peak in retail gas prices - which are up around 20% this year. In a very similar seasonal and monetary cycle manner to last year, energy prices are rolling over but will retail follow again this time as it did before. For sure this would provide direct releif to households, as Brusuelas notes, that have seen average hourly earnings decline for 13 consecutive months. The typical lag is 2-4 weeks before wholesale improvements start showing up in retail prices and while we wait with baited breath for that spending relief, we note that at the same time, the average price of gasoline in Europe just broke back above $10 per gallon (equivalent) to its highest in almost a year showing no signs of retracing at all.

Gasoline futures turned down after WTI prices peaked in late Feb - will retail gasoline prices follow this time?

While European gas prices continue to make new highs...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:49 | 2360881 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

How about a small addition to that headline;

Manipulated Peak gas prices?

Petrol (gas) in India is approximately $9 a gallon and looking to go up.

Diesel, the more expensive distillate is $6 because an inch higher and trucker strike, inflation goes hay-wire and th eprice of ONIONS skyrockets.

Also, you just need to look a leedle bit at the other gas, NG.... quite the tell, especially if, god forbid, a late winter storm hits.

ori

/socthr-e-never-too-late/

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:14 | 2361009 GasPump
GasPump's picture

I HAVE YOU ALL BY THE BALLS! MUHWHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:58 | 2360895 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

 

I would like to personally
thank apologize to
all of our troops
for having to defending
our nation the petrol dollar.

 

 

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:59 | 2360933 BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

You are the master of strikethrough.  One of these days Im going to donate

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:01 | 2360939 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

They are doing a "helluva job" aren't they?

They are literally killing themselves in defence of the petro-dollar....

A veteran commits suicide every 80 minutes

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:08 | 2360971 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

nvts...sad....and a huge symptom of the asleep-ness of it all. The system, the people....

ori

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:57 | 2361096 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1313339_Blackwater_hits_woman_with_truck__shoots_at_traffic.html&page=3#i33440831

 

 

 

Lord, grant us each a little empathy.

Help us to understand that freedom, liberty, and private property are meaningless terms unless they apply to everyone.

Amen.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 12:25 | 2361440 aerojet
aerojet's picture

All according to plan.  Veterans have never been treated well in any era--the Bonus Marchers are a great example.  You have to understand that when you sign up to serve in the military, you are giving up your life and that it is as unglamorous as it gets.  And to top it off, you aren't even fighting to preserve freedom in the US because our government is going full-tilt trying to limit freedom and surveil everyone, so the best thing you could do is simply not serve because it does less damage to the world and to our own country if you withdraw your consent to let the elite use you as their little pawn.  Find a better way to serve!

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 14:45 | 2361976 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

we've all got blood on our hands for puttting up with this self destructive bullshit 

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:01 | 2360944 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

+100

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:08 | 2360980 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Well done HH...well done.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:10 | 2360992 GeneMarchbanks
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Yeah, what about your 'allies' who will probably have to ration soon so you can get a head start on Operation Irani Liberation. What about them?

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:17 | 2361013 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Europeans have walkable communities, better local food production, and adequate commuter rail.  You are the one's with the head start, my friend.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:27 | 2361058 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Ha. Well said. Now, kindly search 'Nabucco' to find out who runs EU energy policy. If there is one thing we will do together it is pulling the trigger on barrels aimed perfectly at our own feet. Ready?

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 11:32 | 2361309 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Its the weather silly..

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 09:57 | 2360924 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Prices typically peak around Memorial Day...The thing to watch is if the pull back is consistent with historical norms.

Smart money is starting to accumalate conventional NG assets with a 18-24 month timeline...

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:10 | 2360993 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

Edit: The thing to watch is if Israel attacks Iran.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:39 | 2361109 SheepDog-One
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Israel will never front an attack themselves, theyre figuring out how to make us do it for them, see Lavone affair, USS Liberty, 9-11, etc.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:09 | 2360976 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

No...  but the increases in price should sufficiently kill demand to help create a temporary ceiling...

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:10 | 2360982 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

We could have much lower gas prices if raw materials and parts for consumer junk wasn't shipped all over the world several times before the end product is actually sold. Globalism is an costly dinosaur.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:12 | 2360994 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/04/demographics-and-changing-social-trends.html

Demographics affect more than just gas. Boomer retirees will spend less on everything.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 12:20 | 2361423 aerojet
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It's true--dead people don't consume, but rather they are consumed (by worms).

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 14:50 | 2361997 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

no but dead people's debt does

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:11 | 2360996 Hohum
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Stock market goes up; oil/gas go up.  Stock market goes down; oil/gas go down.  It's worked pretty well for three to four years.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:14 | 2361010 onlooker
onlooker's picture

Refinery “maintaince” about June first or July. Remember tax is based on price, the higher the higher. And, oil companies donate to the election, got to keep Exxon, Sunoco, and Halliburton happy.

 

We need a well led consumer petrol strike. Car pool, better planned shopping, local vacations, more 4 day work weeks. With all the go green gaffs, this could be an easy one that works, if the Nation had any leadership.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:16 | 2361012 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

The typical lag is 2-4 weeks before wholesale improvements start showing up in retail prices

 

The typical lag I have noticed here is that retail prices rise on the same day the wholesale market goes up, but the lag for the price drops in retail from wholesale run 2-4 weeks after a drop in wholesale, and as long as 8 months if ever for them to go down as far as wholesale.  The gap in the industry is called the Rack to Retail and it used to run between 10 and 30 cents as recently as 2006, it is now over $1 per gallon which might not sound like a lot till you consider how many billions of gallons per month we consume.  By the way, federal sales taxes is included in the wholesale price, but not state.  We here are down 2 cents from the peak as of yesterday.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:24 | 2361046 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Do gasoline stations really make much of a profit on the gas?  Isn't the gasoline an enticement to buy what's inside the store--where the real profit is?

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:31 | 2361078 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I never buy anything but gas at a gas station myself.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:41 | 2361126 DCFusor
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Smart move SD, but most aren't that smart.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:43 | 2361132 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I guess it doesnt matter when most people just swipe their EBT card anyway.

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 08:28 | 2363432 CPL
CPL's picture

You can buy the rights to the store, like a condo you own everything from the paint into the store.  one of the lousiest business opps on the planet.

 

First you get fucked by the fact your supplier dictates price, then you get to listen to every annoyed customer.  One of the ladies I know runs one, profit is whatever retail trade you can squeeze out of the place.  Gas isn't the lure btw.  Cigarettes, nevada tickets and lotto is.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 12:28 | 2361446 zuuma
zuuma's picture

Hmmm...

Maybe "Rack"/  30 cents in 2006  = $1.00 in 2012   (= 5 cents in 1970)  ??

Gas is not rising/ high priced. 

The dollar is falling in value.

Given the trillions printed in the last 3 years,  a dollar is a lot less special than it used to be.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:20 | 2361022 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

"While European gas prices continue to make new highs..."

Hey Europe how's that"Hope and Change" working for you?  Do you like the results of Obama's sanctions against Iran?  No Lybian oil?

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 13:02 | 2361552 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Libyan oil is sweet, not a lot of those refineries around in europe.

Plus we had an ex-SAS merc in there with 100 lads pre-kickoff to look after the oil till it was..........liberated?

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:24 | 2361051 blu
blu's picture

Another manipulated statistic. It will go down until the bitching about gas pricing stops, thus removing any threat of legislative actions, and then it will start back up again.

Lies. It is all lies.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:34 | 2361087 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What bitching about gas prices? All the media informs us that we LIKE higher gas prices, we've 'grown accustomed to high prices' see?

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:32 | 2361083 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Peak gas price'....well certainly not if Bernank is to deliver his 'QE NEW' as everyone believes is already a done deal and coming within weeks.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:34 | 2361089 adr
adr's picture

All I see is that crude was down 1.5% yesterday and is up 1.5% today. Is there a reason beyond speculation? Nope.

The market is now controlled by a handful of giant players that pull money out when they need to, and push free money from the Fed in when they get it.

You would think that the massive 30%+ rise in many stocks since Jan 1 would have meant analysts should have increased their earnings expectations, but know they lowered them once again to allow corporations to beat.

Nearly all the beats are actually misses by miles if you take three months worth of BS growth into account. Based on stock performance most of the expectations for earnings should have been doubled. Apple's stock ascension pegged earnings at what $45 per share or more? What are analysts expecting? Half that?

Screw the market, it needs to be shut down. Food prices doubled, oil price tripled, other commodities through the roof. All because the level of speculative buying has increased over 5000% in the last decade. Speculators selling to other speculators creating bubbles everywhere. Then you have the Fed that has given the speculators free cash to bet with, making the problem even worse. Take away central bank cash and oil goes to $50 a barrel overnight. Corn and wheat drop by 75%.

Taking up the ass so some hedge fund titan can make another million. Boy life is fun in the new normal.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:47 | 2361147 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

While I agree with everything you said, I think you need to get laid.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:58 | 2361181 aerojet
aerojet's picture

And Baby Boomer retirements would be wiped out...

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 08:30 | 2363435 CPL
CPL's picture

You honestly think there is anything inside those pension fund you would be mistaken.

 

The whole industry runs like a bookies palace.  It's all markers and IOU's.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 15:01 | 2362024 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

while everything is criminal and controlled, there are other truths which make the "controlled" monetary price a little moot like, the amount of energy out for the amount of energy in. There is no way around that rapidly growing problem. 

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:37 | 2361095 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Peak gas prices. I don't think so. Long way to go.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:39 | 2361102 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Little rest before another charge higher. Seriously, people believe prices are coming DOWN now? Due to what, abolishing of 'easing' as our economic policy? Give me a break.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:37 | 2361100 bobola
bobola's picture

I rode a bicycle to work today.

Third 2 wheel commute this week.

Gas prices going up..???

Let it rise............

Bike Club.!!  Who's with me...???

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:45 | 2361133 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

You can grab the door handle on my Volt as I cruise by if you need a tow.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 10:56 | 2361176 aerojet
aerojet's picture

Enjoy the rain, and the snow (depending).  I like bicycles, but they're toys, okay?  My commute takes me through some difficult intersections.  There are a lot of car crashes, and people don't see motorcycles or bicycles.  It only takes one asshole to smoke you on your bike commute to work and there are a lot of assholes and a lot of days to find one.  So how much are you saving and what are the risks you are assuming to make that savings?  For me, it's a no-brainer--stay in the fucking car!

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 11:11 | 2361225 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

Absolutely.  I was an enthusiastic bicycle commuter/tourer until the day that some dingbat in a minivan decided to *not* stop for a red light-- missed me by about 2 inches at 35 mph.  The automobile devours all, you can't beat 'em, so join 'em.  The real alternatives to driving are (1) buses, trolleys, and trains, and (2) walking on a separate sidewalk.  Your health/safety ratio is a lot higher on foot vs. a bike.

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 11:01 | 2361196 AldousHuxley
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rain, snow, gusts, uphill, 2nd passenger, large purchases, etc.

 

 

 

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 11:07 | 2361215 Bicycle Repairman
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Remember to take your bicycle in for a tune up every 3 months.  Or bad things will happen.

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