Peak Silver Revisited: Impacts Of A Global Depression, Declining Ore Grades & A Falling EROI
Submitted by SRSrocco
The world is about to peak in global silver production. This will not occur due to a lack of silver to mine, but rather as a result of the peaking of world energy resources, declining ore grades, and a falling Energy Returned On Invested – EROI. The information below will describe a future world that very few have forecasted and even less are prepared. This is an update to my previous article Peak Silver and Mining by a Falling EROI. In my first article I stated that global silver production may peak in 2009 if we were to enter a worldwide depression. We did not have the global depression as massive central bank printing and bailouts have thus far postponed the inevitable.
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buy buy .. buy ... silver .......bitchez..................
you guys keep talking about this..gold? silver? who/what are they?
They're like Jesus.
Very precious, yet inedible.
I hear some Christians eat Jesus every Sunday, but he tastes like a crappy cracker.
Was your comment witty? No
Was your comment funny? No
So no red for you but instead you get a Katy Perry video. Deal with it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGJuMBdaqIw&ob=av2e
It takes guts to admit you like Katie Perry
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZVJWh02I_M
Its all good!
200,000 OUNCES, NOT TONS found on ship. (that is 6.66 tons, not 200 TONS, as some here are saying).
http://www.thesilverchronicle.com/Archive%20Folder/October%202011/oct112011d.html
USA Mint sold 750,000 ounces of silver in one day at the start of this month. Do you know how heavy two hundred tons is for a WWI ship?! This find of 200,000 ounces is pennies in a fountain. APMEX sold about 100,000 American Silver Eagles last week at the dip. CHUMP CHANGE!
"A BRITISH ship sunk in World War I with some 200,000 ounces of silver, worth $US19 million" $19M is not enough to buy a limp biscuit and a french fry at McD's let alone a stale beer from some dive bar in Philly. Pennies in a pond.
Buy silver, crash JP Morgan!
http://www.singledudetravel.com/2011/08/silver-and-the-single-dude/
That was a great article, though one must wonder how the deaths of billions of people may affect the price of silver...
Demand destruction.
It'll affect the price a lot. Won't affect the value one bit. Reduced population equals reduced demand for goods equals lower prices. So your silver might be worth 1/10th as much, denominated in some arbitary paper currency, but so will the loaf of bread you want to buy with it.
Note:
SS Mantola is the 2nd ship found, it only had a fraction of the first ship SS Gairsoppa (200 tonnes)
Beats mining it.
They actually found two ships, one with 200 tons and one with 200,000 ounces.....
http://thesilverchronicle.com/Archive%20Folder/October%202011/oct112011d.html
Lucky fuckers, most I ever found was one Washington Quarter
katie perry is so fuckin hot.
if you like skanks that bang black guys, sure
i got trav'd nice.
240 million views are you kidding me...That's like MJ's billiejean, thriller, beat it plus every freakin' song from Nevermind combined!!!
240 million views. No wonder the US is in trouble. That music is crap, though she might be sorta ok.
I don't know what turns me on most about that video, the little girl with cancer/no hair, the two dudes kissing or the obese girl doing a "can-opener" into the pool half naked...
I understand he is consumed in liquid form as well. No one ever says that you can't drink silver.
If you want to look like a smurf.
You mean Papa Smilver,
This guy ate so much silver that he looks like a smurf.
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.oddee.com/_media/imgs/articles/a358_blue.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.oddee.com/item_96586.aspx&usg=__EV98eFc3TfxM_Kab9PtlThq3Uuc=&h=240&w=450&sz=28&hl=en&start=5&zoom=1&tbnid=c_vj8tctD15JeM:&tbnh=68&tbnw=127&ei=D0eUTsXZLom3tgez0MmcBw&prev=/search%3Fq%3DMan%2Beats%2Bsilver%2Bturns%2Bblue%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26gbv%3D2%26tbm%3Disch&itbs=1
Holy crap! That kind of looks fake. Did you check out tree man??? He has HPV (Genital warts) all over his body to the point that he looks like a damn tree. Yuk!
Hearsay they serve booze with Him....
i told the priest i couldn't eat the flesh of jesus because i was a vegetarian.
They are like Shaft: Cool as bullets.
Congrats SRSrocco! This is my boy it was first posted here yesterday http://www.silvergoldsilver.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&i...
Good move on the posting and best on the new site SGS. Stay irreverent would you?
SLV = fun loving e-digits holder. No harm no foul.
Physical silver = enemy of the state.
Which side are you on?
Physical gold and silver for me. I am not an enemy of the state, but sure as Hell don't trust it. SLV is for speculators only.
Want your wealth (whatever you have) to maintain its value through time? Then everyone should own gold and silver. Everyone.
Depends on what you mean by state, though, doesn't it?
If we're talking US constitutional republic, I'm a friend of the state- but that isn't what we've got sitting on thrones in Washington right now, is it?
Physical silver is not a religion, but it can be a political protest.
Support a constitutional republic? Yes
Support thrones in DC? No
I don't support ANY .gov looking to take away my capital and spend it stupidly, which is EXACTLY what is happening and has been for a long time.
Gold and silver. A political protest! I like that...
DoChen,
Don't roll with the mobs. Occupations don't generally end well. Be rational, be consistent recommend physical Pt. At spot and/or cheaper than Au is a no brainer -- buy the Pt.
.gov taking away your capital in order to spend it on anything is stupid. That isn't the job of government, beyond some meagre sales taxes (or whatever), agreed upon by all as fair, to support basic law enforcement, sound currency and a small but useful level of national defence. Anything else is simply someone telling you that they know better how to spend your money than you do.
In essence, they are calling you stoopid and indirectly pointing a gun at you to take your capital by force. Then they're treating you like you're stoopid because they sincerely think you should believe the crap they are spending your money on is worthwhile. And be glad that the experts are there to take care of you. And with the education, media, social, etc policies of the past 50 years, they're trying very hard to actually make you stoopid, so you won't notice. Sucks from all angles!
Speaking only for myself, if government statistics are repeatedly shown to be fraudulent, why would I believe them or ANY stated by quasi-government related agencies. Not only do I not believe that there is no gold in fort knox, neither do i believe that comex and lme have the physical silver they purport to have.
Gold is money, silver won't be, in time. It will be vanishingly rare at some point, while gold will still be abundant. Best investment ever.
Yeah, except for the 200+ tons of silver they are getting ready to haul out of the North Sea on WWI & WWII shipwrecks. Vanishingly rare? Not so much, based on the amount of bullion they have supposedly found.
I am not up to date on this news item, but 200 tons seems pretty small beer for silver.
Silver is just fine as an investment (physical), but I prefer the real thing: gold! It cannot hurt to diversify PM holdings to include both.
Consider a little platinum, it is now prices more than $100 lower than gold. That happens fairly rarely. "Platinum is for optimists" someone here at ZH once said. Platinum does well when lots of new cars are built.
Also, Bearing's Trail Guide FOFOA says that platinum and silver will NOT likely ride gold's coattails up the BIG price explosion he foresees. FOFOA is my favorite gold analyst... I do not know why he is not covered better. Perhaps because his articles are long.
fofoa.blogspot.com
(I am not FOFOA, but I do contribute)
Both, yes. But there's got to be something to the reports that some of the old banking families are worth trillions. They had billions when the dollar was worth 50 times what it is today, and have been pillaging ever since. I'd wager they have warehouses full of gold that aren't part of the official statistics. Probably not the case with silver. "vanishingly rare"may not be the case, but it's certainly vanishing, mostly in quantities too small to recover. By some reports there is less total silver on the planet now than gold (above & below ground combined). That may not be the case, but there's certainly not 16 times as much silver on the planet as gold. There's about 7 times as much gold above ground as silver.
Rothschilds, Rockefellers, etc. are never seen on the lists of richest people. They are very careful to keep their wealth hidden. I saw one estimate that the Rothschild family is worth a quadrillion dollars.
QUADRILLION.
We should Occupy the Rotheschildes.
@ Falcon15 - See my note about 200,000 OUNCES, not 200 tons. Get your facts straight.
Dude! They own everything...they just let us pretend so we don't flip out!!!
In Zimbabwean equivalents at one time they would've be considered barely paupers. Now imagine a trillion dollar bill. Now a quadrillion dollars doesn't sound so much does it? It's all relative isn't it?
They better own gold and lots of it.
Rothschilds and all elite families REAL MONEY is physical gold and physical silver. The fiat paper bills are for the peasants and "useless eaters", in other words, the rest of the non-elite world class.
I saw an estimate for the same, probably the one you did Buckaroo.
A quadrillion dollars... Staggering. A million billions...
Wikipedia has a great article on the Rothschilds. It has grown into a huge family. Castles, vinyards, banks, "concessions", you name it. Probably LOTS of gold.
Yes, how curious that the Roths and Rocks never make into the Forbes billionaires list...
Hell, if I were RICH (say a net worth of a mere $100 million or more), I would have a LOT of gold stashed around.
There is a chewy carmel filled chocolate treat called the Rothchild.
I think, and I am almost certain that explains their Quadrillion dollars.
JMHO.
Keep buying silver anyway.
200,000 OUNCES! NOT TONS! (6.66 tons)
http://www.thesilverchronicle.com/Archive%20Folder/October%202011/oct112011d.html
USA Mint sold 750,000 ounces of silver in one day at the start of this month.
According to Odyssey they've found TWO ships this year alone containing large silver stores. Let your fingers do the walking and stop trying to be Debbie Downer.... http://www.shipwreck.net/
It's funny how the PsyOps guys always choose a militaristic or patriotic looking avatar, or just the paper bag head!
Your feeble attempt to discourage is so mathematically lame, since 200 tons, if actuLly dredged up, would represent about one hour's worth of Comex contract volume---just 1,300 contracts at 5,000 ozs. each.
Hahahahahaha PsyOp F-A-I-L !!!
His argument is in the same category as all those prognosticators who claimed silver would lag in price or go down because they quit using it to develop film when everything went digital. Non-event.
This silver is museum quality with collectible pricing. Not bullion. it will not move the needle.
Arrh, Matey, 200 metric tons = 440,000 oz of silver, which is a shitpot of salvage, but current annual supply runs much higher. Mining plus recycling about 864,000,000 for 2010, I seem to recall, which means this undersea haul comes to 0.05% of annual production.
Here's 2010 mining figures from the Silver Institute:
Silver Mine Production 2010Silver mine production rose by 2.5 percent to 735.9 Moz in 2010 aided by new projects in Mexico and Argentina. Gains came from primary silver mines and as a by-product of lead/zinc mining activity, whereas silver volumes produced as a by-product of gold fell 4 percent last year. Mexico eclipsed Peru as the world’s largest silver producing country in 2010, and Peru is followed by China, Australia and Chile. Global primary silver supply recorded a 5 percent increase to account for 30 percent of total mine production in 2010.
And these from another source, 2007: Silver Statistics... (all figures rounded and approximate)
40 billion ounces - Total worldwide silver production since 3000 B.C
26 billion ounces - Total worldwide silver production since 1900 A.D.
670 million ounces - Total annual silver production from mining (2007)*
180 million ounces - Total annual silver production from recycled silver (2007)
40 million ounces - Total annual silver production from government sales (2007)
890 million ounces - Total annual silver production from all sources (2007)
890 million ounces - Total annual silver demand from all sources (2007)
200,000 OUNCES, NOT TONS found on ship. (that is 6.66 tons, not 200 TONS, as some here are saying).
http://www.thesilverchronicle.com/Archive%20Folder/October%202011/oct112011d.html
USA Mint sold 750,000 ounces of silver in one day at the start of this month. Do you know how heavy two hundred tons is for a WWI ship?! This find is pennies in a fountain.
Your math is wrong. It's about 16 times more silver than that. But still such a small amount that it isnt going to move the price of silver.
Like the last poster (a couple of weeks ago) who went on and on about shipwreck silver...200 tons is a drop in the bucket in the 700,000,000-800,000,000 oz./year production table...200 tons is like a week or a weekend of global demand atleast at present
Does it cost only $5.00/oz. to dig. . . er, salvage it from the bottom of the ocean too?
Yes. Only $5.00! In any and all circumstances. Forever and ever. Amen.
200 tons is nothing on the grand scheme of things. Do some research.
But I bet it is damned pretty, sitting there in a pile!
Doomz, if you did your research then you would find that it was 200,000 OUNCES, not two hundred TONS... See my notes scatered around above.
Yes flacon!!! (Nice Avatar by the way) The one I'm referring to is the other shipwreck which was reported about 2-3 weeks ago...In the end it doesn't matter!! they're both nothing in the grand scheme of things, pennies in the fountain...that's cool!!!
Damn, flacon, did you say 200,000 TONS of silver on that shipwreck? That will kill the price of silver! ;-)
nah silver tarnishes. after 60-80 years under water it's all green and black now.
silver production tapering off somewhat to "vanishing rare" seems like a huge leap to me. and i am a big time silver bull. care to elaborate?
See above. At some point it will be more scarce than gold unless a substitute comes on line, that's pretty rare.
Silver, oil, gold, copper, and how many other minerals are past peak in the more highly developed world. Is it any wonder why our armies will go anywhere to obtain new sources. Afghanistan and Iraq might as well be the 51st and 52nd states.
Imagine a spoiled rich kid (the current silver market) who's father (all the soveriegn nations that ever stockpiled silver) left him a huge inheritance (ie a huge stockpile of silver). He has gotten a job (ie mines silver), but not nearly enough to cover his expenses (industrial demand). He has lived like this for years--decades even. Now his inheretance is about to run out even as his spending (industrial uses) is increasing.
Next, realize that the above ground silver reserve is less than the above ground gold reserve. Conservative estimates put it around a billion ounces, but I don't see that. I think it is more like a third that, or even less (if SLV really is a fraud), as it was a billion ounces several years ago, and we have run nothing but deficits since then.
It is quite possible that China is sitting on a gigantic (multi-billion ounce) hoard of silver. Consider:
-- China was the last country on earth to demonetize silver. Everyone else had demonetized it by 1873. Because silver was still money in China all the way up until when the commies took over in 1949, silver flowed from the rest of the world into China for over 75 years. Google "US trade dollar".
-- It is well known that Japan looted China quite systematically and thoroughly in the 1930s and 1940s. However they left all the silver behind as they were overwhelmed by the logistical demands of moving all the Chinese gold.
-- Antalya Fekete makes a good case that JP Morgan's gigantic silver short is backed by China's hoard
Hmmm. The Spanish shipped fleets of New World silver to China in the Manila Galleons...
Silver was used as money in the US until 1964.
1970 actually, everyone seems to forget those 40% halves. I buy rolls for rediculously cheap prices from a guy I know that "mines" them.
The US went from a bimetallic (silver and gold) standard to a gold-only standard in 1873. As did virtually the entire world in that year. Google the "crime of '73". don't you remember the "cross of gold" speech from your US history class?
Silver coinage during the 20th century was like our current coinage today: the face value of the coin greatly exceeded the melt value. Silver was removed from circulation in 1964 when the melt value of silver finally exceeded the face value of the coins.
Consequently, even though silver circulated, it was not really money, just as today's cupro-nickel slugs we call dimes and quarters are not really money.
After googling "US Trade Dollar" try checking out the prices for these guys on Ebay. They are SERIOUSLY collectible for numismatic value and I doubt this would be the case if someone (or some country) were sitting on billions of them. Now as for billions of Austrian silver thalers being hoarded in the middle east, thats a more believable story, although equally unlikely. I'm no numi expert though so it would be nice if someone that knows a little more would chime in.
It's a communist regime in china... They are quite capable of keeping it a secret if they have a few million trade dollars. What, do you think they are calling up collectors to tell them that the prices for those things are too high? Of course not, they couldnt care less what some stupid people on eBay think those things are worth.
I'm not an expert per se on us coins but common-date trade dollars are worth more than morgans for sure and trade dollars in proof condition are worth buttloads of money....Like 1000's and 1000's of dollars
US Trade Dollar minted from 1873-1885. Highest mintage of this series was the 1877s at 9,519,000 next is the 1876s at 5,227,000. The rest of the series is about 20,000,000 total. We're talking millions not billions. Of course some melted and some taken out of circulation. Sorry no hoardes here.. Watch for Chinese fakes they do a great job at counterfeiting The Trade Dollar.
Can you give me a citation for the claim that Japan specificallyleft behind looted silver because of logistical difficulty?
HAHAHA
What, Mosely-claven, IONIC LIQUIDS aren't going to save the silver market from peak silver?
There's TONS of silver out there, we'll just find more, technology will save us.
You are such a retard.
My day can be ruined by so many things: our President's blabber, the news, the taxman, the traffic... on an on. But nothing makes me more giddy than the little shine when I open my safe at night. (except ofcourse the joy and love of my family, my good health, my great friends... etc.) OK, Silver makes me giggle. Silver don't give a shit!
Oh, and Tyler gives me joy... and many of the regulars on ZH!
Peak silver is ~$45 and peak gold is ~$1900
And you quote in dollars which is funny because there will be no peak of dollar production as long as there is a Federal Reserve Bank.
..And ink, and a Georgia paper Mill convieniently located near Jekyll Island.
It is not the price of gold or silver going up - it is the supply of paper fiat that is skyrocketing and making the fiat paper worthless.
broke433 Member for 1 week 6 days
US treasuries are also the ultimate safe haven as is indicated by the green light in the sea of red. Especially when shit hits the fan and mean old hedge funds have to "liquidate their winners" to cover margin calls. ;(
gold peaked 10 years ago.
It's been peaking every few months now.