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This time is different - Peak Facebook?
and notice that MySpace became ubiquitous considerably faster than Facebook.
and AH schizophrenia...
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You haven't seen their newest app Pervayance...it's sharing/trading pictures of naked kids.
like!
Edited;
Ok, for the three who don't understand how sarcasm works, I'm not really in favor of a kiddy porn app. :(
Now, tranny porn, that's a different story. See what I did there?. :) You're catching on.
Every thing that the goverment uses to spy on you is paid by your taxes. There are children world wide who hear your drones overhead every night of their lives and unsure where or what is going to happen. Your future is already here. Drones over America. Sleep well
Your point had not escaped me, the difference between taxes and these sheep is, they are lining up to lick the boots of their masters VOLUNTARILY. I along with millions in this country are not willingly paying federal income taxes. It is only the threat of prison that keeps the ponzi going.
Facebook share price = TOTALLY JUSTIFIED.
The economic model is this - create a killer app then you can grow indefinately you don't need profits - they can come later.
Tyler you don't get it. With user base to infinity you get future potential income to infinity and it is important the market reflects that in the share price.
We know there will be no other competators to Facebook will grow to infinity so you can virtually bank all the future income now. Its not like there is any future technology out there that can be a threat ... apart from cloud computing which is going to radically reduce the cost of computing and application entry barriers... wait a minute... OH SHIIITTT!!
Coming From and electrician/ CEO of My Space?
lol ur kidding right? Create a killer app. Haha the whole 'app' concept has been around for ages. Only difference is now it's on a mobile and called an 'app'. Dude all an app is is very very limited software that does only 1 simple task. Have fun swiping through all your killer apps.
"With user base to infinity you get future potential income to infinity and it is important the market reflects that in the share price." are you thinking of share price at infinity than? Every company can quickly take a huge market share because they start offering what ppl want. Just check what happened to Apple. ANY tech company out there is competition.
Facebook will be toasted. The algo's ran that shit show today.
HFT and Facebook IPO:
http://www.calibratedconfidence.com/2012/05/hft-banks-on-medias-hype-of-facebook-in.html
that was the most incredible sell the news event in the history of the world.
that was the black swan!the horror is here.
Like.
Did anyone catch the shameless CNBC propaganda piece "Kids Weigh In On Facebook IPO"? Apparently now even the FB IPO must be Kid-Approved.
http://screen.yahoo.com/kids-weigh-in-on-facebook-ipo-29340579.html
CNBC is a kid's channel. Makes sense.
Snorg Tees ads! Yeah! This red head needs even bigger hoots and slightly smaller hips. Airbrush/photoshop it Tyler(s). Do it now!
Facebook and kids? Kids are fleeing Facebook. It is an old peoples hangout.
Unfriended for complaining about the redhead. You are a bad, bad man.
Facebook goes to zero shortly after the public comprehension of its creepy tracking hits critical mass.
Love that German brokerage firm that had order for $70 per share.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/18/german-brokerage-quoted-latest-facebook-orders-at-70-per-share-closes-at-just-above-38-missed-it-by-that-much/
Nice analysis! ... NOT!
IPO Astrology for Friday Fun ;-).
The astrology chart for the IPO is ruled by the sun. The sun will be eclipsed this Sunday evening, with the eclipse being visible over the California home of FB. Long story short, this is considered to be a very inauspicious omen for the initial IPO (as we have seen), but also look out for more bad news to be coming their way through the period ending next Wednesday.
The chart is also pointing to many Facebook users becoming disenchanted and leaving in large droves. The IPO seems to somehow be making the Facebook users feel used. It looks like everyday people are going to be quite resentful of the fact that the Facebook boys made all of that money off of them, while they are barely getting by, with the result that many will quit using the service. This should not take very long at all to happen, as it is brewing now.
I would call today FB's Last Hurrah...and highest stock price.
Faceplant is AOL II. Also, breaking news after the close...The Nasdaq has been given exclusive rights to bring new companies public that have a market capitalization of less than $11,000 and not more than 5 full time employees.
Sarah, you make me laugh. Anonymity and wealth/ gotta love them!
back to the 80s
See it all implode here.... www.unfacebook.us
Where social media meets.anti-social media.
Come on guys don't be so hard on Facebook. What are all the unemployed going to do all day if not go on Facebook? The 99% NEED FACEBOOK!
i beg to differ. its the 1% that have the ability to break down the numbers and advantage to them of using facebook for commercial purpose, but, its the 99% that can totally screw them, with false names , gamemanship, and lots of fun imagining your next alias . lets roll
They do have your IP address and track you on line. Your Ip address knows who you really are. Only way around it is to have your IP address changed ever day.
at the moment they do not give an iota. its the numbers that count, not how many behind the numbers. Facebook will always show the numbers, and not what is behind the numbers. someday media will do a poll based on age, to discover how age groups use face book. at the moment "we the people" do not even realize that our own family have different facebook profies. for different people.
Facebook is simply the latest marketing tool for the Mobile Phone Sector desperate to avoid being regarded as a Utility. They dream up these Apps because telephones are real-time and telephony is basically boring. So you need an addictive wallpaper to siphon funds from the pockets of the bored and the young. They cannot even articulate and end up posing as demented monkeys in a digital archive
Facebook is a front for the crony capitalists aided by the Fed to again artificially pump up the market before QE3. Didnt seem to work out too well
Nice charts.
Going to see if I can find a Hula-Hoop and a Pet Rock online tomorrow.
Hmmm....
Zucky-burgh said his mission was not to be a public company, but rather to make the world more "open and connected". (Apparently this wasn't NASDAQ's goal either, which explains the delayed open and lack of trade confirms). So, he achieved this open connectedness by creating a closed, hermetically sealed world where computerized interactions are substitutes for face-to-face human contact and 'friends' are created instantly by request (with their personal information recorded as proof), leading to admirable income for the founders, employees and capital providers, without pesky details like monetization.
No problem, as this has always been stated explicitly. To quote a wise man: "they are who we thought they were, and we let 'em off the hook."
I'm a Facebook user and I didnt get my share. What happened? I have been clicking on the Facebook ads like they're no tomorrow
How about, we IPO'ed your SOULs' ?
Okay Tyler, I love your charts and yes this may come, but come on. A chart rounding at the top? Everyone found everyone they screwed in High School, so what is left? Not much probably, but let's be real here, FB "replaced" MySpace, in a bout 3 weeks. Same thing, better UI, bottomline. The FB UI is now the leading model BY FAR! All your ex girl friends are on there, mine are (yea I was a lucky kid), and that is that, times a Gazillion.
FB will be like the book 1984, It will stick around and become the new "telescreen" and me "Winston Smith" and you...I dunno the scary face on the telescreen, hahaha!
Social networking is as old as the internet. It's not about to go away, but I bet Facebook does.
so you like the UI and have a clear inability relate to real numbers (gazillion). thank you for the quality information.
Regarding facebook "replacing" MySpace, check you guesstimate: http://techcrunch.com/2009/01/22/facebook-now-nearly-twice-the-size-of-m...
Please comment accurately and intelligently.
Congrats on feeling lucky that the girls you dated are on facebook.
Zuckerberg and FB reminds me of Steve Case and AOL.
Flamebook is fizzling as we speak
JobBook will save the world.
yeah, I made a fake f'book account and put a bunch of shit on it and was surprised how stupid people are on there to friend me. Recently they got more invasive and asking me to verify my account from a phone number, I think not.
I think not indeed.
Everybody spread around HTTP://www.unfacebook.us on their Facebook lol
Sure in the eyes of the investor / trader it looks like a failure. However I bet this was exactly what they wanted. They priced it as high as possible to get as much as possible to enrich themselves at the top. Worry about real value and growth later ya know. Shareholders have no say in the company and can only lose. It's like a pump and dump.
The FB search volume chart is strangely similar to that of Americans on foodstamps...
Those schizo prints after hours may be just the typical market on close orders, entered during the regular trading day, executed just before close and not required to be reported until after hours. These printed while the bid-ask was still in the low 38s. It currently sits @ 38.41-38.42 fwiw.
Nanex ~ 18-May-2012 ~ Facebook IPO
http://www.nanex.net/aqck/3099.html
"The next chart (5 millisecond interval) shows the result of the blast in trades and quotes when Nasdaq's quote returned. Trades printed at least 900 milliseconds before quotes, an impossibility if orders are being routed according to regulations. We have jokingly referred to this anomaly as fantaseconds."
It ain't a casino its outright fraud.
I think Goldman and other Bankers knew they overpaid for their shares. They saw that the Privacy issue floating around in Congress could kill the Monitization of Facebook. I also think they saw that a lot of people were dropping their accounts because of privacy issues and Government spying, etc. That is why they rushed the IPO and priced it to perfection to unload all of their shares before the open. That is why there was such a large Retail allotment. Plus, with everyone making their page private unless you get Friended there is no fun in spying on other people without their knowledge anymore.
Wall Street never leaves Money on the Tabel.
I would like to know if Facebook had to pay CNBC for every minute of air time on their IPO what the Bill would have been. Probably more than Facebook made in the IPO. Some Big Wall Street Firm got CNBC to have an almost 4 week infomercial on Facebook.
Excellent article by Heidi Moore in today's Guardian about this clusterfuck of an IPO:
Facebook IPO: an anatomy of Wall Street overreachBefore trading, Facebook's bankers were ready to count their profits in billions. By close, they'd had to bale out their own IPO:
The day of Facebook's first day of trading as a public company brought with it a strange perspective: the highest manifestation of a social media bubble and its ugly aftermath, all in the span of a few hours. Who would have thought that Facebook's much-hyped IPO – in its bold $16bn size, the apotheosis of uncontrolled, frothy, capitalist ambition – may have been just the thing needed to bring Silicon Valley high spirits back down to earth and send ambitious techies snuggling back into their hoodies?
The day opened with crowds awaiting Facebook's debut in New York's Times Square, waving at cameras. Gleeful Facebook employees, with sugar-plum dreams of newly-minted fortunes, crowded with smiles behind CEO Mark Zuckerberg at the company's Menlo Park headquarters. The Wall Street Journal created a Zuckerberg Wealth-O-Meter ($20bn at the latest count) and the New York Times revealed the subtle-wealth secrets of 1,000 new millionaires created by the IPO.
Just to play a concise version of the parlor game that went around the stock markets, Facebook's market value at $104bn – with $3.7bn of profits – would have made Facebook worth more than: internet megastore Amazon.com; global beverage behemoth PepsiCo; petro-giant Total; BHP Billiton; and McDonald's. It was not far off the valuation of JP Morgan Chase, an international bank with $1tn in assets. Over the previous weeks, one brief glimpse of Mark Zuckerberg in a hoodie, heading to an investor meeting, launched the kind of press coverage we've hardly seen since the Beatles. JP Morgan itself, one of the company's banks, flew the Facebook company flag next to the stars and stripes of the United States, and papered its headquarters with Facebook signs.
One was tempted to caption many of the pictures, media packages and general euphoria with a single sentence: "On the sixth day, He created Facebook." It was a vision of capitalist paradise, all the richer because Zuckerberg openly disdained the money-waving bankers and investors of Wall Street. What could possibly go wrong?
The popping of this culturally focused Facebook bubble – if not the financial one – was decisive. A few hours later, the scene was decidedly more morose.
The IPO was delayed three times on the Nasdaq exchange because of technical difficulties. Facebook's stock price began a determined move downward – until its 33 banks rushed to buy up shares to avoid embarrassing the company. Zynga, the publicly traded company that makes Farmville and contributes 12% of Facebook revenues, took the aftershocks from Facebook's struggle strongly: its stock fell so fast that its trading was halted. Financial television pundits turned tail and suddenly cautioned against putting faith in an irrational frenzy about Facebook.
The bubble giveth, and the bubble taketh away. What brought Facebook's prospects down – at least, on its first day of trading – was the simple fact that the relationship between a company's stock price and its true value has always been an uneasy one. It is more so for this strange breed of social media leaders – Facebook, LinkedIn, Groupon, Zynga – which appear in front of millions of people but have relatively little in revenue to show for it.
Facebook, as the leading social media company of our time, tested the limits of whether investors are willing to pay anything to participate in the popularity of social media – the way they filed like lemmings to invest in hapless dotcoms like Pets.com in the late 1990s. With Facebook as their avatar, other social media companies have sought high valuations: Instagram recently sold for $1bn, and the most recent estimate on the scrapbooking site Pinterest was $1.5bn.
What happened was a decisive statement. Wall Street is trying to capitalize on the financial hype by sending out companies like Facebook, LinkedIn, Zynga and Groupon public before they are mature enough to sustain the pressure of being publicly-owned companies. But what Wall Street wants and what Wall Street gets, these days, are two very different things.
Regular investors – just normal Americans – bought 20% of the Facebook IPO. They are usually known derisively as the "dumb money". They have wised up a bit, perhaps, in the decade since the dotcom bubble. Most of the hype, and the expectation of vast riches, came from Wall Street bankers and professional investors – another sign, perhaps, that the finance industry is trapped in its own bubble, out of touch with American sentiment.
For Facebook, the first day of trading was mildly embarrassing – no big "pop". It closed on the day moving down: the stock closed at $38, the exact prior price set by the underwriters. As a metaphor, this was irresistible: after all the excitement, talk, euphoria and disappointment, Facebook ended the day right where it started.
fad/fad/
Noun:An intense and widely shared enthusiasm for something, esp. one that is short-lived; a craze.
A fad doesn't have lasting monetary value
The term "tulip mania" is now often used metaphorically to refer to any large economic bubble (when asset prices deviate from intrinsic values)
The next couple years will be spent discovering the INTRINSIC value of the facebook fad
Reminds me of a time in my "yute" when we thought it clever to drop lit brown paper bags of dogshit onto the porches of not so clever as us people, ring the bell and run. All went well until one "dumb" homeowner was laying in wait and briskly opened the door as we stepped off the porch, grabbing the bag O' shit and flinging the air bursting bag of rancid poo all over us. I think his words were "I THINK THIS SHIT BELONGS TO YOU NOW"
Two questions:
1) How is FB going to deliver shareholder value on a quarterly basis to justify this stock price and
2) When is Tyler going to have an IPO for ZH?
It looks from the chart as MySpace peaked just about the time that FB started to take off. MySpace appealed mainly to teenagers and many of its users are now on FB. FB looks to have peaked but that doesn't mean it's going away as MySpace pretty much has. Seems crazy that FB could be worth $100b though - except that there's a sucker born every minute.
Hey facebook, watch out for google+.
Hey facebook, watch out for google+.
STOCKENFREUDE (n): That feeling you get, as someone who loathes Facebook, seeing FB shares crap out on IPO day.
My-space and faCIAbook both suck!
May we please ask you all to contribute to the Ron Paul "Give me Liberty" money bomb today.
https://secure.ronpaul2012.com/?dp=1&pid=dpmb
Thank you in advance for your benevolence and generosity.
NOT TO MISS!!! Bloomberg TV anchor Matt Miller from the floor of the NYSE today —capturing some of Wall Street’s frustration over the Facebook hiccups at the Nasdaq today.
http://investmentwatchblog.com/not-to-miss-bloomberg-tv-anchor-matt-mill...
http://www.google.com/finance?cid=296878244325128
FB Mkt Cap 81.74B, Vol 580.59M, Shares 2.14B, 2011 profit 1B, 2012 profit <1B (projected), P/E ~81
Yesterday, with 560M shares sold, the number of shares listed as being offered was 2.47B. Now, with 21 million more sold after hours, it's 330M lower. Withdrawn from offer? Also, the market cap was first projected as 110B, then 105, now ~82. Har! I may have just a tiny bit more respect for the market now for actually recognizing a dot.bomb era valuation for what it is.
They are going to have a hard time keeping this turd afloat at $38 for the remaining 1.6B shares to be sold. I don't think they'll manage it.
The risk factors are an interesting read:
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000119312512222368/d287954ds1...
What a boon to humanity and the internets if FB actually fails so quickly.
Fuck the Zuck. But his GF does have an awesome rack!
Let me tell you why Facebook is doomed.
A friend of mine makes internet sites for small businesses - and a few weeks ago he was showing me how he puts them together.
They all want this 'social media' thing - so they have the usual twitter and facebook 'friends' to show satisfied customers.
The thing is YOU BUY these accounts, for a few $'s you can have 500 instant 'friends'. These accounts have no real people behind them, they are just dummy accounts.
They all claim to have 'real targetted fans' - but I have seen the accounts sent from one of these companies - they are all fake, not a single one was real. There was one Arab lady with the name 'Mark Davies'!!
Facebook include these accounts in their 900 Million users. They will NEVER click an advert, NEVER play a facebook game and NEVER engage in any pay activity with facebook.
Here is an example
http://gettyfans.com/services/facebook-marketing-services/facebook-fans-...
The numbers are bullshit - check out the link and see for yourself - or go searching - they are not too hard to find.
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