With actual economic data now largely irrelevant, and why should it be : "got a recession? There's an EFSF for that" it is hardly worth noting that the third notable economic data point of the day, the first being GDP which came in line on an inexplicable surge in consumer spending in Q3 despite an epic collapse in consumer confidence, and a drop in the market to 2011 lows; the second being the nth consecutive print in initial claims over 400, which was the pending home sales update from the NAR which printed at -4.6% on expectations of an increase of 0.4%, and down from last month's -1.2%. This is the third consecutive monthly slide in sales data, and merely adds to yesterday's near record drop in median home prices, once again simply confirming that the biggest source of US "wealth" housing still has a long way to drop. And while we ridicule him all the time, even the NAR's Larry Yun has figured out that operation twist and monetary policy in general is a failure: "The Federal Reserve evidently has been attempting to lower mortgage rates, yet more consumers are faced with taking out jumbo loans that carry higher interest rates." Speaking of Jumbo loans, PrimeX jumped earlier today on the European news, and has since been drifting lower. It will continue doing so once some semblance of rationality returns.
From the NAR, which already has zero credibility to begin with and its upward bias has been documented on repeated occasions:
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market is being excessively constrained. “A combination of weak consumer confidence and continuing tight lending criteria held back home buyers, even though the private sector added nearly 2 million net new jobs in the past 12 months,” he said.
The PHSI in the Northeast declined 4.7 percent to 60.6 in September but is 4.0 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index dropped 6.2 percent to 71.5 in September but remains 12.3 percent higher than September 2010. Pending home sales in the South fell 5.5 percent in September to an index of 91.6 but are 5.0 percent above a year ago. In the West the index declined 2.1 percent to 105.8 in September but is 5.6 percent higher than September 2010.
Hilariously, even Larry Yun is now criticizing the Fed:
“America’s monetary policy is contradictory and confusing, where some consumers with the best financial capacity and top-notch credit scores pay higher mortgage interest rates,” Yun said. “The Federal Reserve evidently has been attempting to lower mortgage rates, yet more consumers are faced with taking out jumbo loans that carry higher interest rates.”
Yun emphasized the need to reinstate higher loan limits in 42 states. “Just leaving excessive cash to sit in banks and not work into the economy is a drag on the overall recovery,” he said. “We need a comprehensive approach to address housing issues – not additional impediments.”
And with that observation of reality, we return you to today's continuing EURUSD and ES short squeeze.