This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Phantom Gold And Deconstructing PollyAnna
Many want to believe that a stock market that has doubled from the March 2009 low (or added $9tn in market cap) has to mean that the US economy is in a healthy long-term recovery. Unfortunately, as Charles Biderman of TrimTabs explains, the PollyAnnas are wrong. The sentiment, built on the three pillars of an improved labor market, higher corporate earnings, and the return of the housing market, are all based upon misleading data. Starting from the position of discovering where the new money is coming from, the Bay Area Beau dismantles each of the pillars one by one and ends by noting that it is not Gold, which has outpaced stock market gains, that is a phantom currency but the USD.
»
- 13987 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
We've been in this "recovery" for about 3 years now. How long until it stops being called that?
until it finally gets out of a Depression............
Prosperity is just around the corner.
http://www.archelaus-cards.com/blog/2009/01/18/the-great-depression-in-cartoons-part-2-1930-31/
If you walk in circles, finding a corner is pretty hard....
Kudos!
All the former alcoholics I know keep calling themselves "recovering." And since we have had a whole lot of the juice in order to get the market where it is, well...we still need about eight more steps to get there.
- circa 1913...here we go...
"Extra, Extra, read all about it. New Currency Act Becomes Law. Four Gold Pens Used in signing..."
http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1913-12-24/ed-1/seq-1/
"New proclimation of emancipation!! Dinner pail against unemployment says great Chicago Banker!! Read all about it!"
http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83045487/1913-12-30/ed-2/seq-1/
Until Obama is re-elected I assume.
The Oligarchy is losing it's grip no-matter what the MSM says to confuse the Sheeple.
Distractions don't put food on the table, or fuel in the tank to work two minimum wage jobs.
Bah, bah, bah.
Fact: Gas has gone up before elections in 2006, 2008, and this year.
On top of that, if the DOW in Jan 2013 does start to take that Angry Birds nose dive that we expect it too.......that confirms that the market is rigged. ANd not just "somewhat rigged" or "mannipulated"....I'm talking "WWE Vince McMahon" rigged.
... if the DOW in Jan 2013 does start to take that Angry Birds nose dive that we expect ...
No, the Dow won't do anything of the sort. It'll keep rising (while the US dollar keeps losing value).
Over the last 3 yrs the Fed has made it perfectly clear it will keep the stock market pumped up to perpetuate the illusion of economic recovery.
Yes, RoboTard and similar people will have plenty to crow about in the months ahead as the stock meltup continues right on thru the election and beyond. I fully anticipate Dow 15,000, then 17,000, then 19,000, etc.
But gas will be $7 / gal, then $10/ gal, then $15 / gal.
why would msm give up the jedi mind trick when it works so well........there is a recovery.....there is improvement....you are richer....
when this recession becomes a full-blown apocalypse.
The real question isn't when the recovery will finally occur. The question is what will we be recovering?
I have some news.
The Yuan is not pegged to the USD. It is the USD which is pegged to the Yuan. Given that the currency has way more use against soft and hard commodities and that the tradable goods sector is higher in China than in the US and given that China supports the USD by holdings its treasuries, it follows that if China were to float the Yuan, the USD would fall like a stone. Yes GDP is higher in the US, but it includes Lawyers lawsuits, dog walkers, consumer credit companies, mortgage servicers, homes, all fake economics.
you're assbackwards, but wth right?
Long story short = The economy actually truly sucks in reality, the selective and rosy headlines being spewed are massively misleading, and the equity secular bear market rally is the byproduct of a debasement in USD necessarily.
Now that the global race to debase currencies has begun in earnest, place your bets.
The good news is that there is no pretense for them to hide behind anymore.
The model is Japan.. hedge accordingly.
The market here will emulate the market in Japan since the '90's and printing to cover the $400B Japan rolls over this year will be a nice preview for what will happen to our scrip.
His facial expressions speak volumes.
The average gas price on March 9, 2009 was $1.94. I guess other things have doubled.
Just wait until summer demand spikes! I'm curious if the sheeple will roll over and accept being effed by $5 a gallon or more gas being "normal" from here on out.
Anarchy, bitchezz.
just wtf exactly are they gonna do, protest and vote for more oil?
LOL!
I'm looking to the right of the Google-generated ad (I assume) and it has a picture of Obama and his Family, and the caption that says, "Help the Obamas stand up for working Americans".
Oh the lulz!
I guess we could call this "The Age of Irony" when we put it back in the history books.
Great post! Good info.
Mr. Biderman is super cool ... i listen to his videos & really like his no-nonsense reports.
I would say that the FED has been in emergency mode since 2008. Are they going to stay in this mode forever?
Will the "War on Terror" last forever?
This guy's awesome. Lewis Black's brother.
OT (John Williams Hyperinflation 2012 report, full): http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-414-hyperinflation-special-report-...
Scary. I have been really surprised at Williams' stats showing real inflation running at double digits when the CPI says it's in the 2's. At the current real rate of inflation it won't take any time for people to be totally wiped out.
"US dollar is the phantom currency"
Phantom of the opera and the fat lady just sang.
I hope he isn't implying that all of the Government stats are bullshit. /sarc_off
"US Dollar Nightmare Chart"
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt022412/usd_nightmare.gif
Mark Hanson is a sharp analyst...
He's a terrist.
Obviously Charles has not fallen for the magic show....very unAmerikan of him...he may find himself on the 'do not fly list'.
Then there's this:
Confidence among institutional investors may be breaking down according to State Street's index which fell to a very weak 86.5 in February and reflects easing demand for equities. The North American sample shows the greatest weakness, at 80.5 for its lowest reading in more than three years.
Good point!
Is there a link to see the index?
I always suspect that it is not retailer joe who made the volume so thin. Institutionals are losing grips. whale sized deer in front of headlights!
He looks very tired and overly stressed. Not a good combo. Do yourself a service and take long walk, a day off, then get a good night sleep and watch the sun come up since we are warned.
Did you vote in today's primary?
Yes, I did.... Precinct 13 off Lake Street ;-)
Yeah, the Diebold machine sucked my vote in, never to be seen again, unless changed electronically to another candidate more acceptable to the status quo....
$37!
Silver up 4% - Noon EST.
SGR now 47.5
Bond prices increasing for end of month 2% interest payment. US/EU/UK all hiding unemployment stats. Love Germany excluding 58 year + calling them preretirement not unemployed. BLS get with it. Tell the kids they will have to compete w Foxconn for jobs paying $25/day working 12 hours per day, 6 days per week living 20 per dorm room. Opps no student aid, no twitter, no blogging, no smartphones, dvds, galas, no TMZ, no fun, just work. About 50% of American population has no money in bank and 1/2 tank of gas. Just have fun!! Its going to end.
It's Debt that got us into the situation in the first place and their solution to fight a debt crisis with more debt is simply unsustainable. A monkey with a note could achieve the same results, actually it is a monkey with a Federal Reserve note... What they are doing is robbing the future of our children, one trillion dollars at a time...
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies . . . If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] . . . will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered . . . The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." -- Thomas Jefferson -- The Debate Over The Recharter Of The Bank Bill, (1809)
That video clip of Biderman was the best Pat Paulson impersonation I've seen yet.
The "Bay Area Beau?"
raise taxes. raise them hard. riase them so hard you shutdown the economy for a while. in systems administration we call this a hard reboot. sometimes it takes a lil while to get the disks cleaned up. but the system goes back up and things are stable again.
Or lower government-fractional reserve banking. Lower it hard. Lower it so hard that you shutdown the deficit machine for a while. in systems administration we call this a hard reboot. sometimes it takes a lil while to get the disks [debt] cleaned up. but the system goes back up and things are stable again.
Iceland
you are saying the same thing i am. the debts have to be paid!
No, they do not. Says who? The banksters? Eff em'!
i agree in principle, but what recourse is there? introduce the Amero?
Maybe you're ready for a hard reboot, like may other ZHers. But are your neighbors? Are you going to be able to exercise extreme prejudice against them when they want to dip into your larder? Love thy neighbor? Destroy thy neighbor?...that is the question. I'm not denying that the day for making hard decisions is coming, but just a little more time would be nice.
i've stocked up on LSD and MDMA, i'll know how to love my neighbors.
Siver over $37.
Gold $10 away from $1800
Uncle Warren shitting in his bath tub.
Uncle Ben sodomizing the USD (and the average guy on the street who measures inflation based on food and fuel prices and not i-pads)
/ES now in week 9 of continuous rise.
These are some of the things that make up the new normal.
Welcome to hell.
For those who anticipated this eventuality and prepared accordingly, these conditions are not hell.
For those who would like this rotted Keynesian/crony-system pruned, these conditions can't accelerate the new growth fast enough.
Don't worry about Uncle Warren. He's been misdirecting people for as long as anyone can remember. Think he'd want people to buy gold so he'd have to pay more? What I love is how people cut him so much slack when he blows a call, which is more often than anyone seems to notice which makes me think very diligently about how he really made his fortune. Government? Screwing partners over? Lies, deception, misdirection? All of the above. He's vastly overrated. He got lots and lots of the geld. Believe that.
Now that the equity markets are toppy and near their Summer 2008 levels the MSM talking heads are saying "time to take some risk".
I'm afraid the lemmings are racing to the cliff edge once again and too few seeing plain common sense talk like this piece from Biderman.
When the next crash comes and all the suckers that bought at the top are crushed how much do you want to bet that the blame will fall on those who "weren't thinking positive" and were "bearish" or "just didn't believe" and caused it - rather than a planned false flag euphoria ramp bought with trillion upon trillion of taxpayer cash?
If you speak the truth you are an enemy of the state and the group mind.
It reminds me of running into a guy I used to work with at a trade show in January 2007. He had been renting an apartment in the LA area, but said he was going to do anything he could to buy a place. I told him I wouldn't buy a house in that market if you paid me. He told me he wasn't looking at a house, he wanted a condo. Sometime in the next 6 months, he bought a condo.
I've been burned hard waiting for the crash. With infinite central bank QE I don't see it happening. Did the zimbabwe market ever crash or did the currency just go to zero?
@Chappy,
The Zimbabwe market saw days with over 250% increases, but those price movements reflected only nominal gains, and the holders of the stocks still lost purchasing power.
TPTB clearly told us to go into stocks and stay there. They could have done so in an attempt to restart the economy, but I think everyone can agree that's over and done. So why keep ramping the markets after the recovery failed? They know if you stay in equities you will at least end with part of your wealth, but staying in bonds or cash will leave you with nothing.
Will the equity markets crash? The Weimar Germany market went UP 27x (times, not %) between Oct. 1922 and Oct. 1923 as they destroyed their currency. Of course, they had instituted capital controls which forced everyone into stocks and foreign markets and currencies were banned to them. On the other hand, the situation is similar to what we have today. There's nowhere else to go with zero interest rates (except precious metals), so the differences with Germany are not all that great.
One thing that IS different is we are printing at a controlled rate, unlike the Weimar Republic. So I don't see the stock market crashing, but I don't see it ramping vertically due to currency destruction either. I don't think TPTB will have a sudden change of heart and seek legitimate price discovery, so why would they stop holding it up? I see this process continuing until it can't.
So let's suppose they can't keep the extend and pretend going and and are looking for a nice soft landing soon. When?
There's less incentive to hold it up after Obama is reelected in November, or in January when the new president takes office. So the game plan would be long stocks until Nov, and out if Obama wins, or long until January if he loses. A collapse in Europe would invalidate that strategy, but one can make adjustments on the fly.
Finally, physical gold and silver outperforms everything under these conditions so who cares?
Quarterly profits peaked two quarters ago. Year over year quarterly profit growth is down. Less than 2 of three companies have better earnings tha one year ago.
So if things are getting better, that must mean things are just not as bad as they could be.
This Biderman clown has been wrong ever since he showed up. Wrong about the rally that started in 2009. Every time the market correct he quickly yelled "Look now we've topped out!". And then we kept going to new highs.. and new highs... and new highs. Wrong about the flash crash being a pre-cursor for an iminent "monumental market melt down". And his favorite theme (Whatever happened to it?): wrong about retail equity outflows having any relevance for the market whatsoever.
With any hedge fund analysis, you have to take it with a grain of salt.
Like, I think Peter Schiff has some great ideas and his latest video on gas going up as well as pointing out the hypocracy of Warren Buffet was spot-on.....but he's also a blindfolded right wing cock-loving ass clown when it comes to social issues.
Schiff also thinks hyperinflation is around the corner everytime a toaster oven pops up, where in reality, thanks to the Fed's constant meddling in the currency, it will be more gradual (which makes things worse because by then, it will be too late for the public to finally get the gumption to fix it).
Charles' fundamentals are sound, like Peter's.......but you also have to remember these guys get paid great money by other people to think they way they do.
After the last 3 years of unprecedented Fed currency printing to bail out insolvent failing banks and fund trillion-dollar-per-year government deficits, while the currency loses 33% - 40% of its value, effectively transferring trillions of dollars of wealth from people to government & banks, it amazes me that any sane rational person would still support a non-redeemable paper currency system where the Fed can print the stuff at will and give it to whomever they want, with no accountability to anyone.
No sane rational person except those benefiting from it of course. Sure, they support it. The government supports it. The Fed supports it. All the banks getting free money support it. All the other crony criminal insiders getting free money support it ...along with their bought-off suckup crony friends, economists, and other fake "experts". Hell yea they support it.
In 1933 the government gave the Fed an unlimited license to steal wealth from the American people and give it to whomever they want, as long as the government gets a piece of the action.
It's the biggest criminal conspiracy of all time, and yes the Fed is going to rip off and rob the American people into poverty, and nobody is going to stop them.
Ben Bernanke is the most powerful man on earth right now ...and the most destructive man on earth too. He will single-handedly bring America to its knees, and his sole weapons are a printing press and a computer.
With those two simple weapons he can rob the American people into poverty, stealing all their wealth, without them even realizing it.
The only thing stopping Bernanke is currency collapse when the US dollar loses all value and becomes worthless. But the American people will be in poverty, the economy will collapse, and America will fall from superpower status to 2nd or 3rd world status.
Yes the Fed will single-handedly destroy America, and one man, Ben Bernanke, will single-handedly finish the job of destroying America.
You can argue about the merits of a gold-redeemable currency till the cows come home, but it's the ONLY thing that would stop wild open-ended currency printing and prevent people like Bernake from robbing everybody blind.
What pisses me off most is we're getting too old to pack a weapon too far and for too long. Thanks for your comment. I'd rather fire from the prone position than die on my feet.
Correction: 1913, not 1933.
the world is in too much of a mess for ben to be able to devalue forever but don"t sell your gold and silver yet but when italy begins to go i have some silver bars i'll sell you
Alf Field: In February 2009 Zimbabwe was the only country in the world without debt. Nobody owed anyone anything. Following the abandonment of the Zimbabwe Dollar as the local currency all local debt was wiped out and the country started with a clean slate.
You can be damned sure they will pass laws incorporating "equivalent currencies" or some other nonsense before the USD marked mortgages are destroyed. What are the odds that you get something from your mortgage noteholder to discuss refinance or renomination of your mortgage before it all crashes? A dead certainty.
Mens Vibram FiveFingers and Womens Vibram Shoes was designed to reinvent the pleasure of 'barefooting.' It allows us to go back to the beginning, the way we were supposed to live. The moment we start using the Cheap Vibram Five Fingers to move bare feet, we experience a sudden resurge of a lot of abilities that we had lost due to years of forcing our body into unnatural movement. Gradually, we start to get back our original way of walking, the pain that we used to feel in our calf muscles or around our waist suddenly vanish, and most importantly we start feeling free and happy.
The Vibram FiveFingers Shoes from Vibram was originally designed to increase the potential and performance of runners, athletes, and other people involved in adventure sports. With admit importance of barefoot running, Five Fingers Shoes have promoted the culture of barefoot running, and now many athletes world over find the Five Fingers Vibram their best choice. The increased grip, steadiness and quickness offered by barefoot moving with five finger shoes is useful for many, who have to make quick reflex-based movements or tackle rough terrain, muddy waters, slippery sands, and the like. The Vibram Five Fingers have already become popular among people involved in climbing, fitness training, martial arts, light trekking, yoga, canyoneering, running, pilates, sailing, boating, kayaking, surfing, flats fishing, travel, and Canoeing.Vibram Five Fingers Sale from Five Fingers UK nline with big discount and fast delivery,better choice for you
All affordable Mulberry Bags make a survey of their very own; you'll come upon hand bags that fit each and every single kind of style personality and elegance. Take it for a rocking night out, every time you might be off to function or perhaps should you are out basically to satisfy track of buddies. With Mulberry Alexa bags that are generally in fashion you may by no means really feel outdated when it comes to manner and luxurious.
You are able to select out of your several colors of Mulberry Handbags that are trendy, the materials used are trustworthy and in addition excellent top quality in Mulberry Sale online store . This can make specific your Mulberry Bag lasts through differing several weeks. Group it along with any kind of clothing and they are positive to create the way record using their vogue, color and main top quality finish.Buy Mulberry Outlet from Mulberry Factory Shop will you save a lot of time and money because of the full collections available and big discount,and the same time trustful!
Mulberry Alexa Bags
Mulberry Bayswater Bags
Mulberry Briefcase Bags
Mulberry Clutch Bags
Mulberry Cross Body Bags
Mulberry Handbags
Mulberry Bayswater Holdalls Bag Black
Mulberry A Daria Clutch Bag Purse Black
Mulberry Alexa Holdalls Plum Bags
Mulberry Calf Leather Clutch Bag Purple
Mulberry Alexa Holdalls Oak BagMulberry Hobo Bags
Mulberry Messenger Bags
Mulberry Shoulder Bags
http://www.alexabags2012.net