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PHILLY FED CATASTROPHE: -30.7 On Expectations of +2.0
QE3 is being dragged, kicking and screaming, into the arena. As for the Philly Fed number below, there is no comment necessary.The 10 Year just took out 2.00% and is at 1.99%.
Some observations from Bloomberg's Joseph Brusuelas:
- U.S. “sliding into contraction”, given sharp decline in consumer, purchasing managers sentiment, along with ongoing housing mkt depression, says Brusuelas
- U.S. existing home sales down 3.5% M/m to 4.67m vs est. increase to 4.9m (range 4.6m-5.2m); prior revised to 4.84m from 4.77m
- Cancellations likely due to pulling back of credit by banks
- LEI up 0.5% in July vs est. 0.2% (range 0.5% drop to 0.6% gain)
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HOLY CRAP!
Don't worry. The talking heads at CNBC said that this isn't 2008 again, so there is nothing to worry about.
I think we are recovering from the "Recovery."
They're right. It's worse than 2008.
But, but, but...Jim Cramer said to BUY this morning. And yesterday...and last week...and last month...and....
They're right. It's worse than 2008.
That's the new Detroit Lions bumper sticker.
Yea, it's like the captain of the Titanic telling the crew after hitting the iceberg not to worry It's only a bump. This ship is unsinkable.
lol The hot guest Economist babe on CNBS when asked directly if we would see sub 2% on the 10 year said NO.....lol clueless but pretty
Has CNBS broken the 3,200 viewer mark yet?
Joe Kiernan & James "Fuktard" Cramer have ratings that make C-SPAN look like the Superbowl.
you get caught staring at that oncoming train long enough, and it just might hit you...
LMAO... this will set you straight
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYGNGrCFDdQ
This is all transitory. Everyone accidentally flushed at the same time.
Yep. No need to panic. Those aren't the sell orders you're looking for...
That's incredible.
GOOD JOB, BERNANKE & DUDLEY, YOU DUMB MOTHERF*CKERS!!!!!!!
You broke all markets with your imbecilicism.
Paging Paul Krugman - Paging Paul Krugman: Stimulus program based on hostile extraterrestrial invasion of earth scenario requested by William Dudley & Brian P. Sack.
good grief! when oh when do I jump in short on TLT!!
Anyone going short right up in here or do we wait for .5% on the 30 year ?
Glad to know that the recession ended in 2009.
Hope Obummer enjoys his vacation.
YES WE CAN!
stealth mode qe3
Have a look at silver boys and gals! Jesus, how much fucking manipulation is needed to get over to JPM and fuck them all up!
Don't you know that silver is just an industrial metal now? Oh, and the Morgue+FED can override 5,000+ years of history on a whim?
They can't let silver rise, its the poor man's gold. Hafta keep the Helots in their place.
The tighter you wind the spring, the bigger the rebound. It'll be a moonshot, but when, oh yes, when already?
Just a glitch
Look at 'em run for the door!!!
WOW! That's all I got.
Nouriel vs. ZH
what say you TD????
Dr. Dummy is over is head.
I still say we close green.
LOL
I'm not taking that bet. Green or close enough to it once the PPT kicks in. Obama gotta get his vacation on yo', he aint gotz time fo' no market crash up in this bitch.
Didnt you read ZH yesterday?
Fed No Longer In The Plunge Protection Businesshttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/fed-no-longer-plunge-protection-business-e...
Riiiight, and I've got a REALLY nice beachfront condo in Phoenix to sell you.
Luckily vacation bound Obama doesn't see a recession.
this is all bullish
We are nearly at the 2008 bottom.
This may be a good time to start scaling into things for the large bounce due.
Nearly... as in 4000 points short.
When I say bottom I am refering to the chart above.
However, with the VXO having hit 50 the other week, as well as the never-ending bearish spew from the media....
Is it not reasonable to consider the possibility of a strong rally soon?
All I am saying is that the bearish sentiment sure seems to be getting excessive....
Please back to the Yahoo Boards!
Easy on the dogmatic view huckleberry.
Try being objective, it will greatly help you.
Would not surprise me at all if volatility swings up. These are interesting times. This is why you sit this out, in cash and PMs. It's all manipulated, until the mnaipulation no longer works, and there is a very short "it works" threshold right now. 6 days for short sell ban, a weekend for the Swiss franc.
If you base your investment decisions on the VIX/VXO, you will be poor very quickly. You might as well base your investments on the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index.
Did you suffer some kind of head injury?
I think he's speaking of the Index itself (chart in the article).
Of course, I am sure that he would note that the Index was a leading indicator to the market which bottomed out 5 months later.
Or a head injury. I can't rule that out either.
He's a perfect market timer from way back. He got his Porsche by selling silver short at $50.
After telling us all that $34 was "definitely the top".
I think he shorted at $34, then covered near $50, and now lives under an overpass.
I went looking for the thread but all the comments were "archive".
Now where did we put that junk button?
WTF?
- quinientos.
Where is Waldo? I mean Robo?
Jesus this so predictable for the Fed to wait until 2 weeks prior to Jackson Hole to pull the stops out so they can get the green light again to "Print Mo Money" but only for the Banks...
Of course only for the banks. It's not like they would ever give it to the people or stimulate main street. As long as the people allow it then it will continue.
LOL
Waddayoo mean only for the banks? Get ready to load up on some TNA!
Just with some small gambling money of course.
And just like that the ZH 486-66 web server getting raped. Amazing how days like this bring the permadoomers out in force to hang out on the hedge.
How are your 10 or even 20 year, inflation adjusted equity returns doing, dumbass?
Keep the faith, though, because I'm sure you'll be in the money before you die (maybe in nominal terms, if you're lucky).
Syndromus Nikkei-us, post hac 1989-itis.
Buy The Fukin Dip, Dip!
So, should I load the shotgun and head for the hills, or go to work?
load it and go to work
Just keep in mind, if co-workers die, head count cut directives don't touch you.
Heart attack or stroke, I mean.
Philly Fed -30% LMAO.
So much for a strong 2nd half. This is a deflationary bust. The 2nd half is much worse than the flat-line 1st half!
This is a stagflationary bust. The deflationary depression will come next. Then the hyperinflationary supernova and currency reset.
You know how you know the data is true? 1 week before Jackson hole, they need the excuse....
Good thing I brought extra undies
I guess that ends the recession debate.......... Wait, I was wrong it was just transitory.
Biflation killed the nation ! (To answer Mr Roubini)
Some things in a life are really bad,
They can really make you mad!
Always look on the bright side of life!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo
THis is what the economy looks like off of stimulants!
Before and after pictures of economy: On Left = Normal Economy. On Right = Economy after Bernanke meddles and tinkers in the way he loves to do (because he went to MIT & Harvard, taught at Princeton, studied the Great Depression, and is highly competent [sarc to the nth power] )just sold all of my PM holdings and have invested in the Federal Printing Press Maintenance program instead. Oh hell yeah, I called that one!! Long Bernanke!!
It seems that absent the Junk button all the trolls have dissapeard, makes no sense to troll when no1 can appreciate it with a +1 junk
it's like the silence in the forest before the panther jumps on your back.
TBT buy!
Diane Swonk on CNBS telling us how good all this looks. She should really lay off the green-shoots kool-aid!
I've never seen her overtalk anyone, and she failed against ole Rick Santelli. He went all Zorro on her.
CNBcS will rot your brain faster than midget porn.
I <3 you man.
Yuz haz the best bumper sticker collection ever.
I forgot what ZH'r posted this yesterday, but it gets my vote for the best bumper sticker..
"If you see tyranny say something."
2008 is going to look like the good old times
Word.
No one could have seen this coming.
No one.
Oh my God, we are all gonna die !
Let's run around like headless chickens, bouncing against each other, jumping up and down.
TEOTWAWKI.
like merkel? that's not you goose-stepping behing her is it, frankenfurter?
OMG! that's you, skipping isn't it? i love it, frank! carry on!
Dr. Scott: You're a hotdog but you'd better not try to hurt her, Frankfurter.
Joke of the day: on CNBS today "THe Father of Supply-Side Economics" Arthur Laffer says tax lower incomes!
Arthur Laffer, Laffer Associates founder/chairman, who adds that very high income people are more elastic with respect to their income and the government will actually lose money by raising tax rates on them. Raising taxes on lower income earners will bring more money to the government, he says;
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/video/3000039206/play/1/
C'mon, we know the rich cry themselves to sleep every night over the profound butt hurt they suffer from the poor.
If they could just believe that somebody, somewhere cared about them . . . about fairness . . . they would get their confidence back and jump back into those "job creator" saddles.
But, alas, there are too many socialists mucking things up.
he's right... they are not spending it anyway, so no relative velocity... so we may as well just take it... HA!
UMMMMM not to look like captain obvious here but this is what they already are doing. You cut taxes on the wealthy upper 10 or 20%, or what they are now trying to pathetically call "the job creating class," and INCREASE taxes on everyone else especially the middle class, this is what Reagan and BushCo I and II did. But, immediately it becomes clear that the working poor and middle do not earn enough to support the government demands so you take all you can from them till they start breathing very shallowly, and are pasty white and then say "OK, we will borrow the rest in your name against your credit and you can repay us later when you have it."
So, since 1981, 30 years now, these crows have been out there somewhere, now they come home to roost. There will be no real repayment of all that government debt, even the rich do not have enough to pay down or even service government debt (at all levels) and that was obvious to anyone not brain dead even before the Clinton Admin took office. Not to mention corporate debt which is far larger than government debt, and while corporations appear to be productive entities that can "work" their way out of all that debt as opposed to government, the truth is they are in an even worse position because they cannot print money or tax anyone, in order to pay off their debts they have to produce and sell something passing off a portion of the debt in the margins of the prices they charge. That is, they do not pay their debts, their customers (you and me) do. Household/consumer debt? Let us not even bother to go there.
The problems really started with Johnson trying to finance the Great Society and the Vietnam War at the same time, it was either raise taxes on those that had it to pay, or run deficits that could not do anything but spiral out of control. It is one of the main functions of government to redistribute wealth, you do not have to like it but that has always been true and will always be true. Redistribution has been happening since Homo Erectus first got up on haunches to see farther, without government it still happens though not in an orderly way, those that have what others must have to survive but defend their "ownership" of it usually end up maimed or dead when the mob redistributes. So, for those that think there is enough lead in the world to fight off the starving masses go ahead and try, from my point of view it will be better to be among the masses than to be their target.
my current plan to skim through these threads only pausing for certain reliable commenters is paying off. . . your first paragraph borders on poetic in its observations - taken as a whole, certainly food for thought, with a digestif!
see you further on down the road!
JUST a bit outside!
pods
You see, the buy and hold equity strategy will make me rich bitch.
There's a black swan in my kitchen, what am I gonna do...
Better ramp up some emergency QE in the form of cheese steak sandwich production to prop up the Philly economy
Let them eat fried black swan.
Minsky meltdown, bitchez
Reality is a bitch.
fukuphillyshima...
So many excellent economists fooled.
It almost makes you want to question their excellence.
The PPT is still armed with lots of cash. The SPY fell to about 114.55 and then just hovered there while over 20 million shares traded in less than 5 minutes. The Buy spigots must have been open full bore.
Cat ass trophy bitchez!
As requested:
http://news.bmezine.com/2007/05/08/cat-ass-navel-tattoo/
I survived the PHILLY FED CATASROPHE of 2011
And all I got was this lousy economy.
The Current Employment Diffusion Index went negative for the first time in a year, printing at -5.2. Current New Orders printed at -26.8, the worst reading in almost 2 years. All indicators showed declines. All indicators printed in the negative, except (THIS WILL BE NO SURPRISE), the Prices Paid Index which printed at +12.5.
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/busine...
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/busine...
How is Philly Phed number computed, is this a phat phinger event? Or has Philly turned into N Korea this month, no food or electric.
Hope this helps.
From the Philly Fed website: The Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The survey has been conducted each month since May 1968.
From Investopedia:The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Business Outlook Survey (also known as the Philadelphia Fed Report) is a monthly survey of manufacturing purchasing managers conducting business around the tri-state area of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware. The survey is conducted in the vein of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report; it questions voluntary participants about their outlook on things such as employment, new orders, shipments, inventories and prices paid. Answers are given in the form of "better", "worse" or "same" as the previous month, and, as with the PMI, results are diffused into an index, only this index uses a median value for expansion of 0, rather than 50. The Philly Fed Report signals expansion when it is above zero and contraction when below. As a result, values can be negative month to month.
Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/philadelphiafedindex.asp#ixzz1VOQcQMXsAnd how!
Time to break out those transitory helicopters, Fed-Bitchez....
This is pretty bad. The GNP is going to be Bust unless they do something constructive with the bailout monies beside Bonus each other.
We need capital investment and industrial growth...some production...niot Bonuses and pushing papers across the desk.....or we are doomed.
this market is so transparent...
looks like silver is starting to ramp...its go time
SiLVeR BiTCHeS!!!