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Philly Fed Comes 6 Standard Deviations Above Expectations, Biggest Jump Since October 1980; Biggest Jump Ever In Shipments

Tyler Durden's picture




 

And the Department of Insanity takes over with today's 6 Sigma event, after the Philly Fed surges from -17.5 to 8.7, the biggest jump since October 1980, and 6 standard deviations above the Wall Street consensus. The index which was at -30 a few months ago, has now retraced back to April 2011 levels to supposedly confirm that Operation Twist is working even despite a massive plunge in Refinancing Applications reported yesterday. And confirming that we are now all supposed to be taking crazy pills, the Shipments index jumped from -22.8 to 13.6: the largest jump ever! Just who is receiving these shipments? From the report: "The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from ?17.5 in September to 8.7, the first positive reading in three months (see Chart). The current new orders index paralleled the rise in the general activity index, increasing 19 points and returning to positive territory. The shipments index also recorded a positive reading, increasing from ?22.8 in September to 13.6 this month. Labor market conditions improved only slightly this month. Nearly 18 percent of the firms reported an increase in employment, but 17 percent reported a decrease. The current employment index remained slightly positive but decreased 4 points from its reading in September. The average workweek index increased notably from ?13.7 to 3.1. However, the percentage of firms reporting a longer workweek (15 percent) was only slightly greater than  he percentage reporting a shorter one (12 percent)." And needless to say, not one Wall Street analyst expected a number this high. In fact, just one person thought the Philly Fed would print positive.

Sequential jump in the total index:

And just shipments: an all time record.

Table:

Distribution of Wall Street forecasts:

 

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Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:21 | 1792721 KlausK
KlausK's picture

Paper and ink being shipped to the Fed.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:24 | 1792743 SGS
SGS's picture

How to save the system 101: just keep fudging the numbers.  They wont even know or care to question it.  After all, they just bring cowbells to the protests.

www.silvergoldsilver.com

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:40 | 1792810 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

-

 

Joe Biden jumps and says "Hey, this is a BFD! "

 

Well, it's pretty predictable when you ramp M1 money supply by 22.5% year over year:

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1?cid=25

 

or if you prefer shadowstats: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts

 

What is also predictable is a hard inflation ramp and more bubble.  Hell, there's an election coming and we needs something for teleprompter happy talk.

 

 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:03 | 1792974 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

This weekend, look for Turbo Tax Timmy's NYT editorial, "Welcome Back To The Recovery."

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:40 | 1792849 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

With national interests at stake

And Kleptocrats starting to shake

With all justice dead

While corruption gets fed

Could it be that these numbers are fake?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:07 | 1792977 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

Listen, you clever poetry whore

Question the Fed's numbers no more

You can be sure shipments truly have jumped

Because calculation of the figures was dumped

On an exceedingly trusty fellow in Bangalore

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:32 | 1792797 arby63
arby63's picture

That and body bags and FEMA camp supplies. Business is DOWN everywhere I go.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:34 | 1792812 Hearst
Hearst's picture

"There are no more markets, only internventions." - Chris Powell

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:38 | 1792835 achmachat
achmachat's picture

weird.. I could have sworn it's shipments of precious metals...

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:42 | 1792857 eureka
eureka's picture

Yep - the US is one big Ponzi scheme - nothing else.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:50 | 1793284 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

And the state by state sales tax numbers indicate what?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:22 | 1792722 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

uhhh im gonna go on a limb here and call bullshit

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:28 | 1792769 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Anyone else notice that bullsh*t and bullish are pretty much the same?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:28 | 1792776 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Oh aren't you brave!!! LOL

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:33 | 1792802 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

We outsourced our economic data to China

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:47 | 1792880 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Threeve.

A combination of three and five. 

And your wager?
$Texas ... with a dollar sign in front of it.

I'm speechless.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:22 | 1792723 surfwon
surfwon's picture

I guess it was a good dart toss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:22 | 1792724 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

That explains the strength in CSX, UNP, etc.

Pretty much straight up off the lows.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:27 | 1792762 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

I was wondering why IYT was so strong all morning. I guess that explains it.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:28 | 1792771 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

So now that conductors will be employed again, when should their wives go buy more Lulumon outfits?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:27 | 1793125 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Purely anectdotal, but it's consistent with the credible sources I speak with monthly, if not weekly:

 

The traffic I see at brick and mortar stores/malls/power centers (the Best Buy-Target-Sam'sClub-Home Depot type arrangements) has never been anemic. When I say anemic, I'm talking ghost town thin crowds.

I've never recalled seeing anything remotely like this in my lifetime.

The discretionary consumption based economy is dead, killed by The Bernank, The William Dudley, The Geithner & The Obama (with much thanks and showering of appreciation from TBTFs).

Video killed the radio store.

Wall Street murdered Main Street.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 12:21 | 1793443 Hedge Fund of One
Hedge Fund of One's picture

Well UNP did jump on ER. CSX must be more representative.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:22 | 1792725 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Any excuse to meltup the market... and this would be one of many.

 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:23 | 1792727 jcaz
jcaz's picture

And so the fluffing begins....

 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:23 | 1792734 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

If you set your standards low enough, it's bound to happen sometime.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:23 | 1792728 plongka10
plongka10's picture

Bullshit numbers!

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:24 | 1792733 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

the number was so good, it spiked the USD....down.  ROFL!!!!

 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:41 | 1792854 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Outrageous numbers

Central banks dumping treasuries at an historical rate

An Operation Twist that failed

Rating agencies banned from rating

Protests and riots

Public and private officials stepping down to spend more time with their families.

Massive failures to meet expectations that ham fisted accountants failed to cover up.

Rock stars like Apple doing a crowd dive like Joey Ramone and falling face down on the floor.

Outlandish claims that we only have a confidence crisis because of blogs

Gold suppression

Markets ramping on nothing

I smell desperation in the air.  Only a year ago, they wouldn't try half the stuff they are doing now.  This is starting to boil over.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:23 | 1792740 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Well, that explains all the layoffs in Texas.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:39 | 1792839 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Heckuva job, Philly!

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:24 | 1792741 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Surely they wouldn't fabricate these numbers to their will?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:25 | 1792744 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Yes, they would and will... and don't call me Surely.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A5t5_O8hdA

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:34 | 1792813 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Did you forget to log out and back in under another ID before you responded to yourself?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:38 | 1792834 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Posting it as a different account would just make it seem natural, I was going for obvious. I think it hits harder.

"Roses are red, violets are blue -- I'm schizophrenic... and so am I!"

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:36 | 1792742 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Un-believable. 

In-credible.

That is fantastic.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:24 | 1792749 machineh
machineh's picture

Shipments of antidepressants from online pharmacies.

Prozac, bitchez -- you watch your IRA shrink ... and YOU DON'T CARE!!

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:24 | 1792750 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Look like the HFTs have a handle on Econostats now ... hmmmm..

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:25 | 1792752 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

So what exactly do you call Photoshop for Financial reports?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:35 | 1792781 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

The U.S. Government calls it, "Assignment of Function Relating to Granting of Authority for Issuance of Certain Directives: Memorandum for the Director of National Intelligence."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/some-additional-observations-hft-stock-manipulation#comment-607343

Orwell called it, "The Department of Truth."

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:19 | 1793073 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

BLS

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:25 | 1792753 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Makes total sense; A huge surge in the export of fraud and lies. European politicians are the importers.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:26 | 1792757 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Choppy... Market can't figure out whether this is already priced in or not.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:09 | 1792760 gangland
gangland's picture
Michael Steinhardt commenting on cnbc, in response to a question by david faber about his outlook on the US economy & stocks said there is a social cost to good corporate earnings when you have 9% unemployment and then have the "class broadly speaking" that is benefiting from those same earning at a lower tax rate, that's not sustainable, he also said financial managers are the most overpaid people on the planet ever.

 

http://tinyurl.com/42q4xzp minute 3:00

 

 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:09 | 1793004 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

it seems like everytime this guy is on, he tees it up and hits it long...........maybe that is why he is not on that much...

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:27 | 1792761 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Transitory

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:28 | 1792768 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

WTF... now they just don't care and make up numbers. I bet on CNBC they are high as kites right now.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:28 | 1792770 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

How in the hell can unemployment be going up and consumer confidence be going down while the Fed is reporting numbers like this?

What the fuck?  Time to put on some more inflation hedges big time.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:28 | 1792774 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Bull market is back, buy in while you still can.  Obviously the recovery is in

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:28 | 1792775 Alasdair
Alasdair's picture

In The Wire they called this "juking the stats." 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:29 | 1792778 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Hey, binky said the fed should consider popping bubbles.  Said nothing of ceasing to create them in the first place.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:30 | 1792783 digalert
digalert's picture

Did that table come from the Obama math as a second language regime? It just doesn't seem to mesh with reality.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:32 | 1792800 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Do we have a chart of the facts v. information spread?  I think it's at an all-time high.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:45 | 1792869 Wannabee
Wannabee's picture

Now that's good...made my morning. Plus 1

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:30 | 1792785 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

Survival supplies, weapons, ammo, generators, etc. are the only category exploding that represent "new growth" and YOY beats.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:03 | 1792972 smlaz
smlaz's picture

The only category that's exploding now is the Greek Anarchist/Communitst/Soviet riot in front of Parliament.  How many times has Democracy fallen? 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:30 | 1792786 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

These numbers feel "fudgy."  Is that a word?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:35 | 1792816 tmosley
tmosley's picture

By "fudgy", I'm sure you mean the colloquialism for feces, specifically of the bovine variety, rather than the adjective derived from the dessert.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:31 | 1792789 smlaz
smlaz's picture

ahhh. George Orwell.  Remember him?  We are living in 1984-land.  Next up is Lord of the Flies... 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:03 | 1792975 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

I am NOT playing Piggy again this time. My butt is still sore from the last game.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:33 | 1792798 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

can we blame this on cocaine?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:33 | 1792801 Potemkin Nation
Potemkin Nation's picture

Diffusion indices can be misleading.  They generally don't reflect the relative sizes of the responders or the magnitude of the change for each responder.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:33 | 1792803 dr.charlemagne
dr.charlemagne's picture

yeah right. They've got democrats doing the math again

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 12:32 | 1793513 Alasdair
Alasdair's picture

Jeez, you're still stuck on the Democrat-Republican frame?  The powers that be appreciate your malleability.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:33 | 1792805 Truffle_Shuffle
Truffle_Shuffle's picture

Up is down and down is up.  Sell it!

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:34 | 1792806 TheLooza
TheLooza's picture

you think those rumors mill themselves? fucking produced and exported right out of the good ol'USA ladiez

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:34 | 1792809 djcando
djcando's picture

So, do they send these surveys to the same people month after month, or have they found a new group of lemmings?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:35 | 1792811 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Looks like a certain ex-fed president bullshit artist's method of identifying the correct metric to inflate, then swiftly executing said correction.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:35 | 1792818 Stuart
Stuart's picture

These numbers are about as credible as EU rumours of a deal being reached.   I am even guarded about reports of Gadhaffi's death being BS.   So many BS artists everywhere.   

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:35 | 1792823 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

My first year stats class (was taking business and finance) I remember the prof discussing 1, 2 or 3 standard deviations.  

 

Modify the curriculum bitchez, 6, 9 or 11 standard deviations is the new norm (thank you for zee stabilitay)

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:37 | 1792826 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

i saw a crawl that said csx (i'm almost certain) was adding 4000 "workers" to help haul coal which i found interesting given obarooski's determination in his words to regulate the coal industry into bankruptcy. didn't say what kind, when, where or comp levels of said workers.

they also reserve the right to change their minds.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:56 | 1792947 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Bullish for Black Lung Surgeons.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:40 | 1793219 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

as long as BHO keeps pushing electric cars (and solar) then warren buffetts railroad will continue to make a profit, even though natgas costs half that of gasoline and cars can be retrofitted. evidently none of his friends have any skin in that game

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:38 | 1792837 The Fonz...befo...
The Fonz...before shark jump's picture

They just tacked on us military shipping troops,arms etc to Libya, Africa etc

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:40 | 1792838 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

One thing of note: prices received dropped abruptly into negative territory (-2.5) from a positive read a month ago, while prices paid, although easing slightly, are still high (20). Put that piece of info together with a huge turnaround in inventories from a build to a sudden contraction and you get this: Inventory liquidation at cut-throat low prices despite the high cost of production. Probably a terrible sign that manufactureres fear that unless they liquidate at door-buster prices they would get stuck with a total loss. Not promising vital sign for the economy. And the Biflationary margin squeeze just marches on and on and on and on....

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:53 | 1792916 sushi
sushi's picture

Ding, Ding, Ding!

And we have a winna!

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:58 | 1792953 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Check out your local newspaper flyers, that is exactly what is happening. Nice read CE, IMHO.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:08 | 1792998 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

:-) Agree. It's happening at most levels including retail which is really getting squeezed. After the poor back-to-school season, all but Apple are expecting a bleak Xmas season. Notice the lack of crazy advertising even though it's late October? Usually by now every department store chain in the country would be hitting you with images of people in Santa's lap : kids, grannies, middle age geeks, horny housewives......

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:37 | 1793194 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

yeah sell it now while its still worth something

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 12:08 | 1793380 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Good call, CE.

As anecdotal evidence I can report that traffic in retail stores in this area is anemic... except grocery stores which people must visit.

I have a question: Why did US Gov stop the individual states from taxing, at state, county, municipal level, on line sales. I know it would have been incredibly complicated but the IRS manages to operate in an incredibly complicated environment. The local taxation of on line sales was raging more than ten years ago and. as far as I know, has not been settled. This has to put a huge dent in state sales tax revenues.

Anyone?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:39 | 1792844 JohnFrodo
JohnFrodo's picture

US is also importing its financial data accuray from China

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:40 | 1792851 djcando
djcando's picture

I think this may explain it all  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=td3g7xbo9GY&feature

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:42 | 1792858 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Consisting entirely of US gold being shipped out of the country to Chavez.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:53 | 1792922 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Bingo, we have a winner.

 

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:45 | 1792867 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Even a medium-sized chicken processing company is constantly slaughtering about 55 million chickens a month to feed ECB. Jim Rogers is right. BTFD, I mean buy DAG.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:45 | 1792871 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Resistance is futile, we are the FED.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:47 | 1792872 Thunder Dome
Thunder Dome's picture

And gold miners continue to get creamed while broad market rallies...

When do bugs raise the white flag?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:46 | 1792876 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Shipments of Sit-N-Spins to Govt. Offices and the Fed' said to be the main components of the increase.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:49 | 1792890 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

'Standard Deviation', that's a big word. That's good right?!

Fer crise sakes, just tell me. Do I Buy The Fuking Dev or not?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:50 | 1792899 Farcical Aquati...
Farcical Aquatic Ceremony's picture

From this day on, the official language of San Marcos will be Swedish. Silence! In addition to that, all citizens will be required to change their underwear every half-hour. Underwear will be worn on the outside so we can check. Furthermore, all children under 16 years old are now... 16 years old!

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 10:51 | 1792903 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

The bots are confused!! LOL

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:11 | 1793020 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

I expected this to send the markets into orbit...and yet still I see red.

could this have been a last ditch effort to re-direct from Europe? I see Italy is on the brink of pulling everything down...again

another day, another journey into the land of  the surreal.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:14 | 1793034 KandiRaverHipster
KandiRaverHipster's picture

is it ok to like one fed branch over another?  Philly has an awesome night life.  i like the Philly Fed

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:17 | 1793057 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Let's say it's bullish and short massively just after ^^

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:19 | 1793070 imapedestrian
imapedestrian's picture

Well you know that all those deep underground military bases really need to stock up... they are buying... 12/21/2012 is not that far away!

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:30 | 1793146 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

There is no end to the lies, courrption, deception, fraud, manipulation, or misinformation in the US finacial markets. There is no longer any way to invest in anything and make a sound decison on a future.   Its time to wake up and realize just how out of control this goverment is and what lenghts they will go to fuck you, steal your money or misleed you.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:39 | 1793210 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Bongs....a dozen of them were ordered by the Philly Fed last month I heard...

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 11:49 | 1793282 Eurodollar
Eurodollar's picture

I would assume Philly is grossly overrepresented in the stats presented in this article http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/19/us-usa-antidepressants-idUSTRE...

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 12:03 | 1793341 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

NASDAQ megaphone pattern on daily chart indicates big move ahead.

USD weekly chart remains bullish and as predicted for some time further dollar upside expected.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 12:17 | 1793420 data_monkey
data_monkey's picture

If everything's so good, why do I feel so bad?

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 13:57 | 1794008 AGuy
AGuy's picture

I will go out on a limb:

This spike is a short term event linked to the Storm damaged caused by Irene. A lot of people had damage and a lot of people lost power, forcing people to throw out food, buy generators, etc. The following week after the storm all of the major hardware stores (Lowes, Home Depot) were packed, even during evening hours.

Now that its over, I would expect new report to continue the trend back down or crash.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:49 | 1794277 KandiRaverHipster
KandiRaverHipster's picture

now that i remember, i bought 2 cases of Hurricane 40 Oz MALT for that weekend round of Hurricane themed debaucheries.  but that only ran me $19.89

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 16:30 | 1794665 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Don't be too excited:

Chilly September: Existing Home Sales Fall 3%, Median Home Prices Fall 3.4%, Months Supply +1.2%

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

 

Fri, 10/21/2011 - 07:16 | 1796260 goldinpenguin
goldinpenguin's picture

The Philly Fed is noise - up and down, record down last month, record up this month, need to smooth it to get any benefit and then probably not worth the effort

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