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Philly Fed Comes 6 Standard Deviations Above Expectations, Biggest Jump Since October 1980; Biggest Jump Ever In Shipments
And the Department of Insanity takes over with today's 6 Sigma event, after the Philly Fed surges from -17.5 to 8.7, the biggest jump since October 1980, and 6 standard deviations above the Wall Street consensus. The index which was at -30 a few months ago, has now retraced back to April 2011 levels to supposedly confirm that Operation Twist is working even despite a massive plunge in Refinancing Applications reported yesterday. And confirming that we are now all supposed to be taking crazy pills, the Shipments index jumped from -22.8 to 13.6: the largest jump ever! Just who is receiving these shipments? From the report: "The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from ?17.5 in September to 8.7, the first positive reading in three months (see Chart). The current new orders index paralleled the rise in the general activity index, increasing 19 points and returning to positive territory. The shipments index also recorded a positive reading, increasing from ?22.8 in September to 13.6 this month. Labor market conditions improved only slightly this month. Nearly 18 percent of the firms reported an increase in employment, but 17 percent reported a decrease. The current employment index remained slightly positive but decreased 4 points from its reading in September. The average workweek index increased notably from ?13.7 to 3.1. However, the percentage of firms reporting a longer workweek (15 percent) was only slightly greater than he percentage reporting a shorter one (12 percent)." And needless to say, not one Wall Street analyst expected a number this high. In fact, just one person thought the Philly Fed would print positive.
Sequential jump in the total index:
And just shipments: an all time record.
Table:
Distribution of Wall Street forecasts:
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Paper and ink being shipped to the Fed.
How to save the system 101: just keep fudging the numbers. They wont even know or care to question it. After all, they just bring cowbells to the protests.
www.silvergoldsilver.com
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Joe Biden jumps and says "Hey, this is a BFD! "
Well, it's pretty predictable when you ramp M1 money supply by 22.5% year over year:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1?cid=25
or if you prefer shadowstats: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/money-supply-charts
What is also predictable is a hard inflation ramp and more bubble. Hell, there's an election coming and we needs something for teleprompter happy talk.
This weekend, look for Turbo Tax Timmy's NYT editorial, "Welcome Back To The Recovery."
With national interests at stake
And Kleptocrats starting to shake
With all justice dead
While corruption gets fed
Could it be that these numbers are fake?
Listen, you clever poetry whore
Question the Fed's numbers no more
You can be sure shipments truly have jumped
Because calculation of the figures was dumped
On an exceedingly trusty fellow in Bangalore
That and body bags and FEMA camp supplies. Business is DOWN everywhere I go.
"There are no more markets, only internventions." - Chris Powell
weird.. I could have sworn it's shipments of precious metals...
Yep - the US is one big Ponzi scheme - nothing else.
And the state by state sales tax numbers indicate what?
uhhh im gonna go on a limb here and call bullshit
Anyone else notice that bullsh*t and bullish are pretty much the same?
Oh aren't you brave!!! LOL
We outsourced our economic data to China
Threeve.
A combination of three and five.
And your wager?
$Texas ... with a dollar sign in front of it.
I'm speechless.
I guess it was a good dart toss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That explains the strength in CSX, UNP, etc.
Pretty much straight up off the lows.
I was wondering why IYT was so strong all morning. I guess that explains it.
So now that conductors will be employed again, when should their wives go buy more Lulumon outfits?
Purely anectdotal, but it's consistent with the credible sources I speak with monthly, if not weekly:
The traffic I see at brick and mortar stores/malls/power centers (the Best Buy-Target-Sam'sClub-Home Depot type arrangements) has never been anemic. When I say anemic, I'm talking ghost town thin crowds.
I've never recalled seeing anything remotely like this in my lifetime.
The discretionary consumption based economy is dead, killed by The Bernank, The William Dudley, The Geithner & The Obama (with much thanks and showering of appreciation from TBTFs).
Video killed the radio store.
Wall Street murdered Main Street.
Well UNP did jump on ER. CSX must be more representative.
Any excuse to meltup the market... and this would be one of many.
And so the fluffing begins....
If you set your standards low enough, it's bound to happen sometime.
Bullshit numbers!
the number was so good, it spiked the USD....down. ROFL!!!!
Outrageous numbers
Central banks dumping treasuries at an historical rate
An Operation Twist that failed
Rating agencies banned from rating
Protests and riots
Public and private officials stepping down to spend more time with their families.
Massive failures to meet expectations that ham fisted accountants failed to cover up.
Rock stars like Apple doing a crowd dive like Joey Ramone and falling face down on the floor.
Outlandish claims that we only have a confidence crisis because of blogs
Gold suppression
Markets ramping on nothing
I smell desperation in the air. Only a year ago, they wouldn't try half the stuff they are doing now. This is starting to boil over.
Well, that explains all the layoffs in Texas.
Heckuva job, Philly!
Surely they wouldn't fabricate these numbers to their will?
Yes, they would and will... and don't call me Surely.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A5t5_O8hdA
Did you forget to log out and back in under another ID before you responded to yourself?
Posting it as a different account would just make it seem natural, I was going for obvious. I think it hits harder.
Un-believable.
In-credible.
That is fantastic.
Shipments of antidepressants from online pharmacies.
Prozac, bitchez -- you watch your IRA shrink ... and YOU DON'T CARE!!
Look like the HFTs have a handle on Econostats now ... hmmmm..
So what exactly do you call Photoshop for Financial reports?
The U.S. Government calls it, "Assignment of Function Relating to Granting of Authority for Issuance of Certain Directives: Memorandum for the Director of National Intelligence."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/some-additional-observations-hft-stock-manipulation#comment-607343
Orwell called it, "The Department of Truth."
BLS
Makes total sense; A huge surge in the export of fraud and lies. European politicians are the importers.
Choppy... Market can't figure out whether this is already priced in or not.
http://tinyurl.com/42q4xzp minute 3:00
it seems like everytime this guy is on, he tees it up and hits it long...........maybe that is why he is not on that much...
Transitory
WTF... now they just don't care and make up numbers. I bet on CNBC they are high as kites right now.
How in the hell can unemployment be going up and consumer confidence be going down while the Fed is reporting numbers like this?
What the fuck? Time to put on some more inflation hedges big time.
Bull market is back, buy in while you still can. Obviously the recovery is in
In The Wire they called this "juking the stats."
Hey, binky said the fed should consider popping bubbles. Said nothing of ceasing to create them in the first place.
Did that table come from the Obama math as a second language regime? It just doesn't seem to mesh with reality.
Do we have a chart of the facts v. information spread? I think it's at an all-time high.
Now that's good...made my morning. Plus 1
Survival supplies, weapons, ammo, generators, etc. are the only category exploding that represent "new growth" and YOY beats.
The only category that's exploding now is the Greek Anarchist/Communitst/Soviet riot in front of Parliament. How many times has Democracy fallen?
These numbers feel "fudgy." Is that a word?
By "fudgy", I'm sure you mean the colloquialism for feces, specifically of the bovine variety, rather than the adjective derived from the dessert.
ahhh. George Orwell. Remember him? We are living in 1984-land. Next up is Lord of the Flies...
I am NOT playing Piggy again this time. My butt is still sore from the last game.
can we blame this on cocaine?
http://cdn3.knowyourmeme.com/i/000/103/256/original/i-fucking-love-cocai...
Diffusion indices can be misleading. They generally don't reflect the relative sizes of the responders or the magnitude of the change for each responder.
yeah right. They've got democrats doing the math again
Jeez, you're still stuck on the Democrat-Republican frame? The powers that be appreciate your malleability.
Up is down and down is up. Sell it!
you think those rumors mill themselves? fucking produced and exported right out of the good ol'USA ladiez
So, do they send these surveys to the same people month after month, or have they found a new group of lemmings?
Looks like a certain ex-fed president bullshit artist's method of identifying the correct metric to inflate, then swiftly executing said correction.
These numbers are about as credible as EU rumours of a deal being reached. I am even guarded about reports of Gadhaffi's death being BS. So many BS artists everywhere.
My first year stats class (was taking business and finance) I remember the prof discussing 1, 2 or 3 standard deviations.
Modify the curriculum bitchez, 6, 9 or 11 standard deviations is the new norm (thank you for zee stabilitay)
i saw a crawl that said csx (i'm almost certain) was adding 4000 "workers" to help haul coal which i found interesting given obarooski's determination in his words to regulate the coal industry into bankruptcy. didn't say what kind, when, where or comp levels of said workers.
they also reserve the right to change their minds.
Bullish for Black Lung Surgeons.
as long as BHO keeps pushing electric cars (and solar) then warren buffetts railroad will continue to make a profit, even though natgas costs half that of gasoline and cars can be retrofitted. evidently none of his friends have any skin in that game
They just tacked on us military shipping troops,arms etc to Libya, Africa etc
One thing of note: prices received dropped abruptly into negative territory (-2.5) from a positive read a month ago, while prices paid, although easing slightly, are still high (20). Put that piece of info together with a huge turnaround in inventories from a build to a sudden contraction and you get this: Inventory liquidation at cut-throat low prices despite the high cost of production. Probably a terrible sign that manufactureres fear that unless they liquidate at door-buster prices they would get stuck with a total loss. Not promising vital sign for the economy. And the Biflationary margin squeeze just marches on and on and on and on....
Ding, Ding, Ding!
And we have a winna!
Check out your local newspaper flyers, that is exactly what is happening. Nice read CE, IMHO.
:-) Agree. It's happening at most levels including retail which is really getting squeezed. After the poor back-to-school season, all but Apple are expecting a bleak Xmas season. Notice the lack of crazy advertising even though it's late October? Usually by now every department store chain in the country would be hitting you with images of people in Santa's lap : kids, grannies, middle age geeks, horny housewives......
yeah sell it now while its still worth something
Good call, CE.
As anecdotal evidence I can report that traffic in retail stores in this area is anemic... except grocery stores which people must visit.
I have a question: Why did US Gov stop the individual states from taxing, at state, county, municipal level, on line sales. I know it would have been incredibly complicated but the IRS manages to operate in an incredibly complicated environment. The local taxation of on line sales was raging more than ten years ago and. as far as I know, has not been settled. This has to put a huge dent in state sales tax revenues.
Anyone?
US is also importing its financial data accuray from China
I think this may explain it all http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=td3g7xbo9GY&feature
Consisting entirely of US gold being shipped out of the country to Chavez.
Bingo, we have a winner.
Even a medium-sized chicken processing company is constantly slaughtering about 55 million chickens a month to feed ECB. Jim Rogers is right. BTFD, I mean buy DAG.
Resistance is futile, we are the FED.
And gold miners continue to get creamed while broad market rallies...
When do bugs raise the white flag?
Shipments of Sit-N-Spins to Govt. Offices and the Fed' said to be the main components of the increase.
'Standard Deviation', that's a big word. That's good right?!
Fer crise sakes, just tell me. Do I Buy The Fuking Dev or not?
From this day on, the official language of San Marcos will be Swedish. Silence! In addition to that, all citizens will be required to change their underwear every half-hour. Underwear will be worn on the outside so we can check. Furthermore, all children under 16 years old are now... 16 years old!
The bots are confused!! LOL
I expected this to send the markets into orbit...and yet still I see red.
could this have been a last ditch effort to re-direct from Europe? I see Italy is on the brink of pulling everything down...again
another day, another journey into the land of the surreal.
is it ok to like one fed branch over another? Philly has an awesome night life. i like the Philly Fed
Let's say it's bullish and short massively just after ^^
Well you know that all those deep underground military bases really need to stock up... they are buying... 12/21/2012 is not that far away!
There is no end to the lies, courrption, deception, fraud, manipulation, or misinformation in the US finacial markets. There is no longer any way to invest in anything and make a sound decison on a future. Its time to wake up and realize just how out of control this goverment is and what lenghts they will go to fuck you, steal your money or misleed you.
Bongs....a dozen of them were ordered by the Philly Fed last month I heard...
I would assume Philly is grossly overrepresented in the stats presented in this article http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/19/us-usa-antidepressants-idUSTRE...
NASDAQ megaphone pattern on daily chart indicates big move ahead.
USD weekly chart remains bullish and as predicted for some time further dollar upside expected.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
If everything's so good, why do I feel so bad?
I will go out on a limb:
This spike is a short term event linked to the Storm damaged caused by Irene. A lot of people had damage and a lot of people lost power, forcing people to throw out food, buy generators, etc. The following week after the storm all of the major hardware stores (Lowes, Home Depot) were packed, even during evening hours.
Now that its over, I would expect new report to continue the trend back down or crash.
now that i remember, i bought 2 cases of Hurricane 40 Oz MALT for that weekend round of Hurricane themed debaucheries. but that only ran me $19.89
Don't be too excited:
Chilly September: Existing Home Sales Fall 3%, Median Home Prices Fall 3.4%, Months Supply +1.2%
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com
The Philly Fed is noise - up and down, record down last month, record up this month, need to smooth it to get any benefit and then probably not worth the effort