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Philly Fed Craters

Tyler Durden's picture





 

One word to explain the Philly Fed which just printed at -16.6, or the weakest since August 2011, on expectations of an unchanged print: abysmal. Basically every subcomponent of the index was negative except for number of employees, although luckily we already know that US jobs (even part-time ones) are collapsing too. In short: if this horrendous print does not boost stocks higher, nothing can.

Oh and the market continues to be bathed in hopium. While the current conditions cratered, the 6 month forward looking index... rose.

From the Survey:

Indicators Suggest Decreases in Activity

 

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, fell from a reading of ?5.8 in May to ?16.6, its second consecutive negative reading (see Chart 1). Nearly 40 percent of the firms reported declines in activity this month, exceeding the 22 percent that reported increases in activity. Indexes for new orders and shipments also showed notable declines, falling 18 and 20 points, respectively. Indexes for current unfilled orders and delivery times both registered negative readings again this month, suggesting lower levels of unfilled orders and faster deliveries.

 

Firms’ responses suggest steady employment this month but shorter hours. The percentage of firms reporting higher employment (14 percent) edged out the percentage reporting lower employment (12 percent). The current employment index increased 3 points this month. Firms indicated fewer hours worked this month: the average workweek index decreased 14 points and posted its third  consecutive negative reading.

 

Indexes for prices paid and prices received both decreased and were negative this month, suggesting that price pressures have moderated notably. The prices paid index fell to ?2.8, its first negative reading since July 2009. Nearly 16 percent of firms reported declines in input prices; 13 percent reported increases. Firms also reported that the prices received for their own  products fell: For the second consecutive month, more firms reported a decrease in product prices (17 percent) than reported  an increase (10 percent).

More here.

 


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Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment Squishi
Squishi's picture

are we there yet?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

PhillyFed is nothing that a good EuroRumor can take care of. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Ponzi ponzi!!!

I know at this point in time it seems redundant but... the WHEELS ARE COMING OFF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY and NO AMOUNT OF FRESHLY PRINTED FIAT PONZI CAN FIX IT!!!

GAME OVER 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

when the the 99% roam like zombies and devour each other across charred dystopian landscapes the markets will be breaking all-time highs. and then we shall know that the vampiric ponzi truly worked.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:44 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

a little IQuit test:

 

ponzi is to zombie

as

hopium-rigged markets are to (_________)

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

Soma for us gammas?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:40 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Crater in order to cater.

Hopium 2.0, where bad news is the best news you can get!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

usd/au

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

A Delusional addled population and political/financial structure?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Doesn't mean they won't try to "fix" it that way.

And no doubt a substantial part of the "fix" finds its way to insiders' pockets.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

jus_lite_reading

Using the SWIFT system the supreme commander screwed the pooch.( what else is new?)

Now China,India,Russia, and several other BRIC nations are forming their OWN system of SWIFT.

They are pooling their currencies and end arounding the SWIFT weapon used by Obiewan.

This is going to backstop any issues they have because China has a 3 trillion reserve fund.

They will use it to backstop each other, for when we go up in flames.Plus this is setting the Yuan up for the New reserve currency........

See:

www.jsmineset for article

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"are we there yet?"

Sadly, very sadly, the bus ride to hell has barely begun.

While many here on ZH have at a minimum a basic understanding of the economic damage wrought by the last Great Depression, other than seeing a few black and white photos in our high school history textbooks of lines outside soup kitchens, tent cities and barter towns, of hungry children and distraught parents, few here really have a mental or emotional grasp of the coming wide spread human misery coming round the bend.

It won't slam into us at full speed. Rather it will slowly creep up upon us until finally one day, while looking out our window or walking down the street, we will be shocked to our very cores by what we are seeing, hearing and feeling. Only at this point will we finally be rid of all our false hopes, the real chains that bind, and truly be ready to hold ourselves accountable for cutting our masters' leash and getting to work rebuilding. 

It does not need to be this way. We have a choice. When will we find the inner courage to make that choice and stop this utter madness?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

Heck CD, I already have people living in the parking lot at my Wal-Mart down the street. I see more and more homeless people every day wandering out of the fields in the morning in search of food or a handout. These are not just what the mainstream would call 'homeless bums.' These are young people with that blank look of hopelessness and dispair in their eyes. We have families with young children on our corners begging for change.

The air hasn't smelled right all year. Am I finally detecting that faint smell of a rotting carcus in the distant? Time is drawing near folks . . .

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

I wish it were drawing near, but suspect we wont see a real cratering for another 5 or 6 years.

Professinal illusionists with media and printing presses behind them working a crowd that desperately wants to believe that magic is real can stretch this out awhile longer Im afraid.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:22 | Link to Comment Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Christ you guys are depressing. Y'all need some fine bitches and blow.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:26 | Link to Comment mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

The people who really understand what they expect from the near future are building very large underground shelters in inaccessible areas.  Paid for with printed money.

It strikes me as an ominous development when a lot of governments around the world, like the Fed (which is the government of the United States) starts spending money like there is ... um .. no tomorrow.

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:54 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Walking down that street someday and seeing that misery first-hand, we won't recognize it as an echo of a darker time ... because it won't be a grainy photograph in black-and-white.

I guess a picture says a thousand words but being there in person says nothing. That's why great challenges and heroic efforts only exist in history books.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 19:11 | Link to Comment TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

CogDis said:

"are we there yet?"

Sadly, very sadly, the bus ride to hell has barely begun.

True, although our bus has finally made it to the edge of the parking lot.

It does not need to be this way. We have a choice. When will we find the inner courage to make that choice and stop this utter madness?

After relieving the black raspberry patch of a handful of ripe berries and talking with the neighbors for a few minutes, I pulled a radish from the garden while walking back to the house. Mmmmm, crunch time.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Teflon markets say "meh". Incredible.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Gold seeing a rise but stocks not so much.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Here comes the fed.  i mean bulls.  How is there an endless supply of stock buyers that this market never falls.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

This is an election year.  Good things always happen in an election year.  Nevermind 2008.  /sarc

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The next FOMC is in August, correct? Bad news won't be good news until a bit closer to meeting time. QE rumor-ramps are sooo yesterday.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Cue Jan Hatzius on GDP..............

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment kralizec
kralizec's picture

Huh, what?  There's a turd in the diaper?  How did that get there?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Jamie Dimon put it there.  More to come.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Osmium
Osmium's picture

I think Jamie Dimon is the turd.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

At some point the market has to realize they're caught in a loop. Stocks HAVE to crater to get QE3. So any bad news is good news, is nonsense for the QE3 seekers. They need a terrible stock market to have their QE dreams come true.

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@HaroldWang

Logic?  There's a reason they are called "Muppets" or "Bulltards."  What we are dealing with now is the moral hazard of addiction to the federally supported backstop of all problems.  Nothing can go wrong because nothing will be allowed to go wrong.  What, I ask you, could go wrong with THAT kind of thinking?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

No worries, all priced in.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

I wonder what the Philly fed guy said in the meetings the last two days....????

This isn´t a trending down...its a crash....October suprise anyone....something is up...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

Chance of no election happening: 20%.

Watching them fight over who gets to be captain of the sinking ship: priceless.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Paul Thomason
Paul Thomason's picture

Commodities have seen this coming for months VIDEO>> De-Bunking The Gold Price Manipulation Conspiracy?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment nomorebuyins
nomorebuyins's picture

Ramp is not gaining traction today, there will probably be the ultimate super rumor this afternoon.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

ECB creates debt hunting unicorn?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

With rockets for shoes.  That would be wicked.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:41 | Link to Comment urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

I'm sorry.  I meant to say they drew up plans for a debt hunting unicorn.  My bad.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Interesting how my June 22 135 SPY puts are going down in value the same time the SPY is dropping.  Someone know something.  Could it be obama care unconstitutional?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

This is where I go nuts.  Even if the horrible Philly numbers ment QE infinity, that wont happen until the next fed meeting so why would anyone step in and buy today???  Who are the idiots buying right now?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Very rapid time decay. Falling volatility yesterday, flat today. Maybe hold on for tomorrow, some TBTF downgrades tonight? But likely priced in. Nothing is a black swan... until it is.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment sudzee
sudzee's picture

Electionomics 101.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

On a happier note for the Philly Fed, they can always step outside for a lungfull of fresh air in the pristine, crime-free paradise they call home.

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

aggregate demand collapsing.. Ben said in his 2002 speech if rates were zero, it was mistaken to think that the fed could not stimulate aggregate demand through other measures.

 

He thought low interest rates loans would induce americans to continue on with their debt binges.  YOU LOSE!  GOOD DAY SIR!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKG07305CBs

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@Jason T

The Bernank thinks the American public are all mice that can be bribed with some cheese.  Well, the American public have finally figured out that the cheese is lying in a debt trap.  The American people are a relatively disappointing lot, but we aren't that low.  Time to re-learn some old tricks.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Maybe it would be stimulative if consumers actually got the loans (could afford the loans? could qualify for the loans?) but since the loans are going to the TBTFs there isn't a whole lot of stimulation going on outside Wall St or an SEC "strategy session".

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:52 | Link to Comment optimator
optimator's picture

If they won't let us vote for Dr. Paul, at the very least Romney should have him head up the FED when he gets in.  That would add some excitement to everything.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Romney is doing is happy dance again this morning. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yes Romney is dancing. in a few months when it becomes pretty certain he will win he will have to be more careful with his rhetoric. He will need to start praising the Bernak. Maybe even mention Krugman as sec of treasury. This way the debt and pesky debt ceiling won't be so big of an issue once he is in.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Krugman....SHIT in a GOP adminstration I have a better chance of becoming Sec TSY than Krugman.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes indeed.  One party for the banks and financial houses, by the banks and financial houses.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment kralizec
kralizec's picture

Own "real" assets.  How many times must the lesson be learned?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment reader2010
reader2010's picture

another orgasm?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Once again I, like Lehman, am bullish on American economic collapse.. by the way  What's Flopboat trading at? Should I double down yet?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

nobody expects the filly fed!

(normally on a filly fed miss like that we'd be down huge.  the market is very strong today.  i smell green.)

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment chanxmanx
chanxmanx's picture

just buy the dip, it works every time. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Maybe Ben should have collected a few more data points before deciding not to do QE3. On another note PMs are starting to piss me off.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

But look at the 1 min. chart for today on the SPY......as with most days I have noticed the high to low is EXACTLY 1 DOLLAR! Today, for example, I see roughly 135.79 to 134.79.....then bounce.

 

Exact. Too exact for humans methinks.

Robo-Cop: "I'll buy that for a dollar!"

 

banning the bots is the ONLY WAY to restore a semblence of confidence in this charade. And that is only a start.....

 

I am hoping the bots seize the system so bad they are outlawed. But then again the biggest HFT is none other than The Fed itself!

 

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

The only reason markets are going up or staying at inflated levels is simple.

Where else do you park money?

It is a scene as old as the hills and no one ever seems to tell it like it is.  Volatiliity between all these things is money going from one percieved "haven" to the next.

Governments can no longer be trusted, neither can banks.  Even the DOW components are no longer 'blue chip" as we discovered from GM, AIG, Chysler and so on.

While this drama unfolds, money will leap from one stone to the other in the creek called Futility.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Oil is cheap.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Gas ain't.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Step One:  QE

Step Two:  Austerity

 

Step Three:  Default

 

Everyone ready for control-alt-delete?

 

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:44 | Link to Comment PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Does it matter what the expectation was ? I think not but just to amuse us someone should tell us.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

That can't be! Stocks have bottomed and are starting their rebound!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

01100010011101000110011001100100

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:31 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Go ahead, say that in EBCDIC. I dare you.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

Uhh, ok. Here's what those numbers convert to in EBCDIC: ÂÈÃÀ

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Jake88
Jake88's picture

such miserable news is sadly not bullish. bad news will only be bullish again when the market drops another 10-20% 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment tongue.stan
tongue.stan's picture

I'm sitting in a hopium bath right now, eating skittles by the handful. Of course, my hopium bath consists of unicorn diarhea, but it is warm and velvety smooth nonetheless, kinda like a mud bath with bits of corn. I like it spiked with some bath salts, so don't be too surprised if you hear Maria B report that the chairsatan and turbotimmy were found this afternoon with their faces eaten off.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:55 | Link to Comment covert
covert's picture

contrary to popular rumor, the feds are privately owned banks.

http://covert.ias3.com/expose/

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!